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And so the credit taking begins!
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1329699215128268800
Steve Baker seems to be switched on to the deception:
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1329707981982855168
What I’d really like to know about SAGE is how and why the mountain of empirical evidence for a rapid doubling time was rejected in favour of some poorly-supported modelling.
My read - and I was not on SAGE at the time, is that the modelling was focused solely on the UK data streams. Fitting anything remotely exponential, be it a log-linear regression or an SEIR model (which I think people were) to limited data meant that R was badly estimated and the doubling time equally so.
Rather. I looked at all countries and used a rebased epidemic, and a mixed-effects log-linear model that says all epidemics are taken from some population, that way other countries. I used ECDC cases and deaths, Lorenzo used hospital admissions from UK and Ital, which he was sent from colleagues there. Two methods to get a 2-3 day doubling time.... Lockdown.
Yeadon
Please. I replied previously on lockdownsceptics. Yeadon makes all the typical drug developer presumptions I see every day at work. My formal response was as follows - tell me where the logical induction error falls?
djaustin
Error 1: Assuming that 100% of the population was susceptible to the virus and that no pre-existing immunity existed.
Error 2: The belief that the percentage of the population that has been infected can be determined by surveying what fraction of the population has antibodies.
Mike Yeadon makes the fundamental scientific flaw of stating as fact what should only be a hypothesis. The purpose of science is to construct a hypothesis and test it against data, then see whether there is sufficient information to reject the null hypothesis. The above two “Errors” are the null hypothesis. What are the testable outcomes that these hypotheses produce? – what evidence allows them to be rejected?
I have seen no prospective evidence that pre-existing T cell cross reactivity confers a lower risk of infection. I have seen no evidence that people with confirmed infection have not produced some seropositivity. Multiple hypotheses may lead to the same description of observation, but there must be testable outcomes for future states.
By changing the state of the system – leaving lockdown, opening schools, returning to office-based work, what are the testable predictions of his assertion? How does high immunity square with rising hospital admissions, and as surely as night will follow day, rising deaths in a couple of weeks’ time? How many deaths does his assertion predict in a month’s time? When will immunity prevent such mortality, if that was the primary reason for the previous decline from April? Is immunity really only of six months duration? How does that short duration compare with the first hypothesis?
There is no point appealing to authority (argumentum ab auctoritate), science is science – every confirmatory trial he ever ran attempted to reject the null hypothesis. And I’m also a thirty year scientist, in the same field with a background in Mathematics, Medicine, Biology and Epidemiology.
Your link doesn't work pond life. If youtube blocked it I suspect it's baseless conspiracy stuff.
As someone above noted, you started with reasoned argument and an alternative view to the consensus on here. Denying that confinement reduces transmission flies in the face of facts. You've gone from alternative strategies based on the same base of knowledge to denial of important facts. Then the following question:
I wonder why they need to do this?
Which is firmly into conspiracy theorist language.
I'll defend your right to disagree with strategies and look at the Covid death rate in its wider context which includes the economic, social and mental health implications of lockdown but if you're going to post pondlifefacts the vultures and eventually the mods will get you.
The science does not support them and there is zero evidence they have any positive effects.
Can someone explain why this troll is still here? They signed up (again?) just to troll on this subject.
Can someone explain why this troll is still here? They signed up (again?) just to troll on this subject.
Yet another useful contribution here from Kelvin, the man who likes to talk the talk, until it comes to walking the walk.
Incoherence is the third stage of grief.
Another story from Europe 1 this morning, the longer the confinement goes on the higher the incidence of beaten kids and women. 🙁
Are we actually saving lives or simply trying to postpone deaths?
Aren't they the same thing? I'd quite like to postpone my death as long as possible.
71stu
Free Member
Pondlife, your not going to get any form of debate on here, I’ve followed it from the start. As you can see it’s just accusations of trolling.
When some of the experts on here contribute to other threads on different sites their data is called into question and their lack of context is made apparent.
again
please provide some evidence
pondlife
Free Member
And so the credit taking begins!
matt hancock being a dick is hardly news
the data would suggest that the regional lockdowns in northern areas were working
so lockdowns work, which you said they didnt
My current hypothesis is that pondlife = recently joined and banned jim_barclay.
DNFTT!
Are we making any of the Oxford vaccine in advance of approval?
I’d quite like to postpone my death as long as possible.
I'd like the opportunity to end it when I wish without making a mess on the pavement at the bottom of a tower with the possibility of landing on someone. (there is an element of black humour here before anyone gets upset)
My grandfather lived in excellent health until he died of flu at 92. Two years before he died he said he was just waiting for the end and was happy to go. He said that all his friends were dead, he'd done everything he really wanted to and he'd had enough.
As someone above noted, you started with reasoned argument and an alternative view to the consensus on here. Denying that confinement reduces transmission flies in the face of facts.
More to the point it flies in the face of the scientific hypothesis.
That being that the virus is primarily transmitted between people.
Give or take a few mustelids, pangolins and such I see no evidence to dismiss the hypothesis that unless people meet the virus can't spread and when people meet the virus can spread.
If we were discussing some avian transmitted flu
If this was a strain of some airborne fungus spore
then perhaps they might say differently.
No the northern areas were not as hard hit as areas such as London in the spring so these are merely the secondary ripples. They were always going to die out with or without any lockdown.
Sorry but that is simply misinformed nonsense. Look at admissions in the NE and NW and Yorkshire, then look at mortality. You will find such facts fly in the face of your assertions
At the peak, London recorded 700 admissions/day.
At the peak, NE and Yorkshire recorded 400 admissions/day.
At the peak, NW recorded 400 admissions/day
At the SECOND peak, NE and Yorkshire recorded errrr 400 admissions/day, and NW 300/day prior to Tier 3 and lockdown.
On a per-capita basis, London NW and NE had the same first wave admissions. Deaths were also in the same proportion. Thanks for playing - you may research (and download the data) here . When you have, come back with some facts please.
That being that the virus is primarily transmitted between people.
Exactly. So can you explain why there were no peaks in transmission after big public gatherings then? For example the lockdown protests, the BLM protests, VE Day celebrations etc? Cases continued to go down.
Aren’t they the same thing? I’d quite like to postpone my death as long as possible.
No.
To follow on from Edukator's comments theres a difference between living and existing.
Outdoor transmission is recognised to be (much) lower than in confined spaces. Where outdoor transmission has been suspected or proven the people have been tightly packed in sporting events such as Cheltenham:
Expecting to see those events against a background of thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of cases a day is asking a bit too much of the statisticians.
Outdoor meeting is pretty safe. The virus is quickly dispersed in open air. This was not well understood initially and some of the advice/restrictions seem overly strict in hindsight but at the time (eg late March) the situation was pretty desperate and data were limited so I'm not going to criticise anyone for that.
So can you explain why there were no peaks in transmission after big public gatherings then? For example the lockdown protests, the BLM protests, VE Day celebrations etc? Cases continued to go down.
Because it's primarily transmitted between people indoors?
Tired. With reference to the PHE link below. Looking at the Registered Deaths / Expected deaths, shown in () on the bar charts, London does appear to have been hit the hardest using this metric. 3.4 at peak versus 2.3 at peak for North West England.
My current hypothesis is that pondlife = recently joined and banned jim_barclay.
yarp
Is it just me or have people in supermarkets stopped making any attempt at social distancing since the introduction of face masks? even supermarkets themselves seem to have given up on it, it might explain some of the latest figures from the ONS
https://news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-supermarkets-most-common-exposure-setting-for-catching-coronavirus-in-england-latest-data-shows-12136418?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral
TiRed, I appreciate the information you have posted but the likely facts remain that lockdown will do far more long term damage to this country and the health of our population (both mental and physical) than following something like the GBD proposal. And that this disease is now known to be way less serious than we though back in March yet we still persist like it is the deadliest thing since the great plague.
Yet no impact assessment of the effects of lockdown appears to have taken place. That's criminal levels of incompetence!
We have been lied to time and time again by our government and SAGE, the TV news all conveniently censored by Ofcom. These are facts and if you don't believe this then I suggest you check out my direct link on the previous page to Ofcom.
The government has also deliberately chosen to prioritise the lives of people with Covid above the lives of those with Cancer, Heart Disease or a myriad of people with other health conditions. The NHS has never been in danger of being overwhelmed so it should have continued to treat these people. Unfortunately cancer patients are second class citizens now it would seem. The government claims to want to promote health and save lives yet it keeps gyms shut and GP practices restricted whilst allowing McDonalds to remain open? It is totally illogical.
I appreciate TiRed that if you work for the NHS, PHE or Government etc then you are very lucky. Your job is secure and you still get paid throughout, insulated mostly from the effects of the policy that you dictate others should follow, no doubt having your shopping delivered by some poor soul (perhaps an unemployed airline pilot) who is putting themselves and their family in danger so that you can be safely locked down in comfort.
What your type (public sector) don't seem to understand though is that for many, lockdown (or other similar restrictions) is not a game. It is a matter of life and death, feeding your kids or not, loosing your job or not, having your business destroyed or not.
I don't think you will ever understand that. You are it would seem, more bothered about your version of 'the science' and being proved to be right. I suspect you really have no 'skin in the game' so to speak along with probably most of the other pro-lockdown brigade.
The real heroes in all of this are not the NHS. They are just doing the job they signed up to do. The real heroes are the families who have lost everything, the business owners who have sacrificed their business and their employees, the cancer patients who have had their treatment denied, those who have had their mental health destroyed.
Unfortunately the government cannot lose. If cases fall it will always be "because of lockdown". If they rise then it because "people have not followed lockdown enough" or "imagine what would have happened if we didn't lock down'. All the time they use scary worst case scenario modelling to illustrate what could have happened. Bullish*t!
The official excuse will always be 'yes but because of Covid'. It is not the virus that has caused our current mess, it is our chosen and shambolic reaction to the virus. Our blind panic, stoked by people with 'no skin in the game'.
With regards to lockdowns. Not anti lockdown and logic would dictate that they will reduce transmission of the virus etc.
There are however, some interesting anomalies in the data....
Assuming the data in this link is correct, does it not appear that transmission was already reducing in Liverpool before the introduction of tier 3?
https://data.spectator.co.uk/city/tier3
If so, why?
I agree with scottroutes.
But who's actually paying him to spout this crap and sabotage a great thread?
I don't work in the public sector. My COVID research is done in my own time as a supplement to my day job and past experience. I am the only non-academic on SAGE/SPI-M. I have family members personally affected economically by the epidemic. You have failed to materially address any of my scientific points.
The facts are unpalatable, and the choices are difficult. the science is more certain that it was in March. I only provide a scientific analysis of the situation. It is up to economists to provide the economic side of the debate and governments to decide on the path forward. Most governments have takes a broadly similar position. Including Sweden. That position has been to try and limit spread by restricting contacts.
I do not view myself as pro or against lockdown, and you won't catch me scaremongering, or calling for policy changes - that is not my role and my job forbids public comment. But what I see is a pathogen that is relatively easily spread (notably by indoor social contact), quite pathogenic (about 2% of infected people need hospital, and 0.5% die). Available control measures for this new pathogen are basically prevention of spread. That is it. In time they will include protection by vaccine (which will at least reduce the 2% hospitalization and 0.5% mortality rates if it does nothing else), and better treatments to reduce mortality to about 0.2% (flu-like).
Those developments are about 8-12 months away from being fully rolled out. So what to do in the meantime? It's understandable to WANT to believe in tenuous science that support one's position, but the science is not so clear, especially regarding immunity. Commentators are keen on certainty (pro and con). I am not - I see poor assumptions lead to poor outcomes (Yeadon's track record for example) all the time in the same field as his.
But I am certain that everywhere contacts have increased from a previously low level, spread has returned. That is NOT mass immunity. In a randomised study of the population, everyone who tests positive (regardless of symptoms) goes on to seroconvert and produce antibodies. Ergo seroprevalence is one measure of past community exposure. T-cell cross reactivity in a lab cell culture has not had that community-level study, and is not therefore a validated measure of past exposure, nor protection. So why assume it should be? I would not bet the healthcare farm on such a presumption, but that is what the sceptical position would advocate. I cannot subscribe to it on grounds of logic.
The real heroes in all of this are not the NHS. They are just doing the job they signed up to do. The real heroes are the families who have lost everything, the business owners who have sacrificed their business and their employees, the cancer patients who have had their treatment denied, those who have had their mental health destroyed.
In that I completely agree, and have said the same. My view is that the Government should have levelled with them early about the gravity, the available options and the likely duration. Chris Witty has consistently tried to do so. The PM has not. Merkel has.
But who’s actually paying him to spout this crap and sabotage a great thread?
It's just for shits and giggles. And the fact that the lives and health of people are on the line just makes it easier for them to get people to bite. Just the same trolling as before (under other names). Don't engage as if it's someone wanting a debate, that's not what they are here for.
Assuming the data in this link is correct, does it not appear that transmission was already reducing in Liverpool before the introduction of tier 3?
Cases are not a true representation of underlying community transmission. They are confounded by testing practices. Look at hospital admissions, which are based on symptoms not testing. Analysis of hospital admissions at the acute trust level shows that the Tier 2/3 hospitals had a slower rate of growth (longer doubling time) than those in Tier 1. This is also evident at the NHS region data. Which is publicly available. North West (lots of Tier 2/3) admissions turned over from the end of October. South West (Tier 1) did not.
North West - showing turnover due to Tiers 2/3 from Oct 14 feeding in a week later
South West - showing limited effect of Tier 1 and later turnover due to lockdown from Nov 04 feeding in a week later
This is not immunity in the NW and not the SE, immunity is only about 10-20% of any restriction of growth. It is contact restrictions working.
Tier 3 appears to restrict spread, Lockdown will add to that, but the additional incremental benefit of lockdown with schools open is still being studied.
Exactly. So can you explain why there were no peaks in transmission after big public gatherings then? For example the lockdown protests, the BLM protests, VE Day celebrations etc? Cases continued to go down.
I can offer several factors though that depends what you mean by "no peaks in transmission after big public gatherings"
I'd have to presume you don't maintain we have less cases now than we did on VE day?
I'm not sure how you quantify transmission... when it's not being measured and testing is being manipulated. Very few people would for example travel from Cornwall to Aberdeen for a test ..all assuming they could get one.
Meanwhile people have been strongly discouraged to get tested. OH is a teacher and got told to self isolate but strongly advised not to get tested. A local school posted Wednesday following the death of a grandparent that PHE advise noone else in the classes needs testing.
I personally had to get a test last Friday. The Monday before I had screening... has anyone in my household been told to self isolate, did I have any symptoms, had I travelled abroad or to Manchester in the last 2 weeks
Then on Friday I had to get the same questions again AND get my temperature taken before I could be tested.
As was home goaled the other day the test and trace takes 5 days to even find someone who is the head of test and trace.
And for some COVID treatment news, WHO state that the effectiveness of remdesivir is modest and unproven
I produced an analysis in March that predicted the same - that the drug cannot be dosed at high enough levels to be truly antiviral. Hydroxychloroquine is in the same boat. Favipirivir is a better bet (and oral!). It is not at all surprising and NICE would most likely not approve it.
Antivirals need to be given early to have an effect. Giving a five day IV infusion course is not the same as taking tamiflu out of the bathroom cupboard on first symptom onset. The antibodies from Lilly and Regeneron are a single (IV) dose and have a profound effect (2/3 reduction in need to be admitted). Expect the vaccines to do the same.
Cancer treatment and care has continued throughout this year, I have had all blood tests and scans required for my screening plan. The olny difference has been that appointments are over telephone instead of face to face at the cancer centre. I am low risk and cant vouch for others experiences but I'm sure if someone as low risk as me can be looked after then others a receiving similar care.
On a per-capita basis, London NW and NE had the same first wave admissions.
According to your link, cumulative admissions in London were 24K, Yorkshire and NE 16K up to July 1 - a 50% difference. The population of Yorkshire and the North East seems to be 8 million vs 9 million for London so on the face of it that is quite a different per capita admission rate and is consistent with the one identified by squaredog.
TiRed, thank you for responding rationally to my rant. I do not agree with all you say but understand that there are a variety of scientific opinions out there. One opinion might not be totally right (e.g. Yeadon), but this is too important an issue not to be debated properly. Sweeping these discussions under the carpet and censorship of the broadcast media is not a healthy state of affairs for any nation.
Hopefully you can understand with the underhand and seemingly incompetent way our government has responded to this Crisis (or at least that's the way their communication strategy has come across), and the way that they have tried to censor, ignore and discredit dissenting voices, then conspiracy theories are bound to spring up.
A more open an honest approach with the population would have been good, inspiring confidence, togetherness and honesty regards to Coronavirus, rather than their chosen fear-mongering worse case scenarios. An open approach would have allayed most peoples suspicions. As it is people are drawn to make their own conclusions, things like this for example: https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
It also does not help when people call anyone who disagrees with their point of view, trolls, Covid deniers, conspiracy theorists or 5G nutters. Normally I find that the people who do this are short of any credible arguments themselves. All this name calling does is drive further divisions and helps to entrench peoples existing views.
I am an occasional contributor to STW via another account as I've mountain biked for years. The reason I posted under a different user name is precisely because of the abuse I knew I would receive from some on here who seem completely intolerant of any differences of opinion. Such a shame that needs to happen.
Conspiracy theories exist purely because of the vacuum of integrity that the government has created. I am not a conspiracy theorist but do wonder why we have done things the way we have. There is no logical explanation for it.
This crisis has mostly been created by the media. If we hadn't had mass testing, Facebook and a press baying for sensationalism then the likelihood is that Covid would have passed mostly un-noticed. Just a bad year for respiratory infections. As it is the media have created a sh*tstorm for which some of us are all now paying the price.
I find that personal situations can affect opinion on lockdown. A good friend of mine is a senior council official. He is massively pro-lockdown and he openly admits that it does not really affect him.
I am (or was) and airline captain flying mostly transatlantic - hence my user name pond life (across the pond). Overnight my employers work dried up and the fleet I have had the pleasure to fly for the last 10 years has now mostly been sent to Cardiff for dismantling. So now, though no fault of my own I also find myself on the scrapheap.
I am relatively lucky though as I have plenty of savings and my mortgage is cleared. Many of my juniors do not and lots are still paying back huge loans from their training. One of my regular first officers committed suicide two weeks ago due to (we think) financial pressures. That's still quite raw. His fiancé blames the government and my wife and I are helping her out best we can with their young daughter because she is also not in a good place right now. As a result I am swamped by the downsides of lockdown and that is probably why I find the whole thing abhorrent.
Anyway I'll leave it there and remove myself from this discussion as I can see I am mostly preaching to those who will not listen.
The government has also deliberately chosen to prioritise the lives of people with Covid above the lives of those with Cancer, Heart Disease or a myriad of people with other health conditions. The NHS has never been in danger of being overwhelmed so it should have continued to treat these people. Unfortunately cancer patients are second class citizens now it would seem.
I am not sure what real world experience you have on this subject.
My wife is a urology cancer nurse and whilst some of her colleagues were redeployed during the first wave, they remained operational for all of their critical patients.
Some patients had the start of their treatment stalled and some stopped treatment slightly earlier then they would have normally but they were all risk assessed on an individual basis by a panel of consultants and cancer specialists.
Treatment continued throughout for a large percentage of patients and they still did procedures for those with cancer like symptoms (cystoscopies etc).
Some routine procedures were delayed (TURPs for example).
They have also been doing waiting list initiatives (extra clinics) to deal with the backlog.
During the pandemic my father-in-law had symptoms that could have been liver cancer and was put on the standard two-week wait and was assessed and tested very quickly. Everything is still working if you need it.
I think some people may have been put off of contacting GPs because of the pandemic, but the cancer treatment system has not been de-rated to 'second class'.
Soooo... have we already done the utter, utter futility of trying to carry out a Covid test on a 3 year old? I'm actually angry at whatever glib f*****t thought it would be in any way practical to swab a toddler's tonsils or stick something 2 inches up their nose...
I suggested waiting until he was sleeping but wife vetoed it, so after 15 minutes of screaming and arguing (wife didn't want me physically restraining him) we now have a swab which at best has touched the inside of his cheeks and maybe the inside of a nostril. Oh, and to finish it off, the natural 'break' line on the swab results in a swab the exact length of one of the 'do not do' pictures in the booklet. Not really sure what that's about.
I really hope the national strategy is not in any way predicated on the accuracy of these tests...
If we hadn’t had mass testing, Facebook and a press baying for sensationalism then the likelihood is that Covid would have passed mostly un-noticed
Hang on - you just called others out for making sweeping statements without credible evidence, and then done almost exactly the same yourself. Don't forget the scenes from Italian hospitals in March.
pondlife
Hopefully you can understand with the underhand and seemingly incompetent way our government has responded to this Crisis (or at least that’s the way their communication strategy has come across), and the way that they have tried to censor, ignore and discredit dissenting voices, then conspiracy theories are bound to spring up.
.... and the surprise of a underhand and incompetent government responding to anything otherwise?
I seem to remember them being the same people who said we are "sick of experts"
censorship of the broadcast media is not a healthy state of affairs for any nation
The relationship is unhealthy but better described as the rules of sharing the same trough.
Some care homes locally got completely wiped out. Left unchecked I'm pretty sure a few people would have noticed.
Like Clover and one or two others I'd rather not find out I'm in the 10% who get it and end up with a long term condition the hard way if it's all the same.
Umm. I've certainly spoken to a few pilots over the years with personality characteristics similar to pondlife's
Mods - a quote from pondlife's lengthy post further up this page...
I am an occasional contributor to STW via another account
My understanding was one account per person; can you confirm?
A more open an honest approach with the population would have been good, inspiring confidence, togetherness and honesty regards to Coronavirus
Oh God this!!! It's all I've ever tried to do. And challenge is how science works. It really does help to hone the argument. I don't take it personally at all. I'm far too rational 😉
I am (or was) and airline captain flying mostly transatlantic
If you've flown LHR-PHL, then I was sat under you on some flights. And my son is currently training to be a commercial pilot. It's his life dream and he gave up places at Uni to work at LHR for two years. So I am very familiar with the economics.
One of my regular first officers committed suicide two weeks ago due to (we think) financial pressures. That’s still quite raw.
I can only begin to imagine. I'd be angry as hell. That could be my son in a few years time.
This crisis has mostly been created by the media
On this one I must disagree - left unchecked, the mortality would be higher - 200k deaths is not unreasonable over the course of the epidemic (about a third of all annual deaths). That's a balanced not scaremongering view based on now known case fatality not modelling. All-cause mortality was doubled in April. We would not have missed it. Whether society was happy with such an outcome is the real debate. That was not raised.
Dougiedogg, best wishes with your treatment. Agree with all you say.
Big Thanks to your wife from a urology cancer patient.
I can confirm and support all you've said , first hand from the other side.
The nurses and doctors have been brilliant for me, and I've nothing but praise and thanks for them.
I've had one CT scan (of 6) and one specialist blood test moved to other hospitals, but that's understandable. And totally the way it should be - green pathway for safety. It's not easy for them treating us AND keeping us safe through this.
Also,I've addressed this misrepresentation a couple of days ago, and it's sad to see that sort of misinformation repeated so soon afterwards.
New poster, same post.
have we already done the utter, utter futility of trying to carry out a Covid test on a 3 year old?
Find me a toddler who doesn't stick things up their nose! Give them the swab, point to nose, leave them to it 😀
haha, yeah, or just leave the swab lying with all the other dangerous and exciting stuff we try our hardest to keep out of his reach. We'd be hearing the scrape of him moving furniture to get at it within minutes... 😀
Thanks loum same to you
Eskay, all docs/nurses involved in cancer treatment and care have been great to me and I'm sure your wife is very much in the same mould.
And my son is currently training to be a commercial pilot. It’s his life dream and he gave up places at Uni to work at LHR for two years. So I am very familiar with the economics.
He may need (if he's not already) to get himself over to Pprune for some hopefully honest and frank advise regarding future career paths dependent on where he is on his training (whether integrated or modular). They can be a funny and militant bunch but there are some golden nuggets of advice if he has the right approach. Don't always trust what the integrated flight schools are saying. In their world there is always an upcoming shortage pilots. Pinch of salt required!
Either way it's a huge cost and he needs to weigh it up with the likelihood that things will recover any time soon. I know tons of colleagues with 1,000's of hours and multiple type ratings who are currently out of work so what chance a low hours newcomer has is dubious right now. That said if it's his dream and he has the aptitude, the finance and the determination to stick it out then he might get lucky. Far East and China has most work opportunities right now. Always best for him to have a backup plan. Best of luck to him.
A good move:
Care workers looking after people in their own homes will be offered weekly coronavirus tests from Monday, the government has announced.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/homecare-workers-to-be-tested-weekly-for-covid-19
Should have been happening for months now, but at least they now plan on doing it. Too late for my next door neighbour, sadly, but still, we need to welcome improvements, even late and seemingly obvious ones.
Either way it’s a huge cost and he needs to weigh it up with the likelihood that things will recover any time soon.
I am of the opinion, that similar to post-Iceland, once economic normality has returned, likely in 12-18 months, travel will bounce back relatively quickly with enormous pent-up demand. Keeping the current epidemic controlled and seeing an effective roll-out of protective vaccination measures, I predict international travel will return in 2022.
We are fortunate in that he has saved hard and I will fund the rest of his training. He's currently in Ireland studying for BSc in Pilot studies and Aviation. Next September he will go to FTE Jerez to complete this degree with Integrated training (was awarded a place already in their top 5% of applicants and a likely small bursery). He will complete in 2022, and then we hope things will improve. He certainly has the aptitude (and a PPL from aged 17).
PPrune is always interesting - I'm djaustin there, but don't post. I always wanted to fly rather than do science - I can't see properly in one eye (+5 dioptre difference in eyes) so it has never been an option.
Umm. I’ve certainly spoken to a few pilots over the years with personality characteristics similar to pondlife’s
There are a lot of people out of work right now with little to do except watch (conspiracy) videos' on YouTube and watch the shambles unfold.
Those who for various reasons have the time to be commenting longer term on here have probably had plenty of time to see similar communications and incompetency pre-covid ... TBH most of this stuff you couldn't make up.
The real heroes in all of this are not the NHS. They are just doing the job they signed up to do.
@pondlife - This is a ridiculous thing to say.
I don't care how upset you are with the world and how much you're trying to drag the discussion down, you are just an angry, misguided fool fighting his own impotence whilst barking at the moon trying to drag others into your own madness.
The real heroes in all of this are not the NHS. They are just doing the job they signed up to do.
The sandwiching of the trolling lines between sensible points is a lovely technique, it must be said. Very smart indeed. But this poster has used multiple forum names to troll people on this subject, and I have no idea why this is now acceptable.
🤷🏻♂️
Just to point out I'm here and posting (only) on my real profile!!
Business travel may be slow due to the economy, but people are DESPARATE to travel on holiday.
I don’t care how upset you are with the world and how much you’re trying to drag the discussion down, you are just an angry, misguided fool
Actually I think that's harsh. @pondlife is working in an industry that has been completely decimated (as are several others here). A colleague with whom they shared an "office" for hours on end, sometimes in highly stressful situations, has committed suicide, most likely due to concerns about repaying huge training fees and providing for a family. I'd be absolutely raging in the same circumstances! As would most other people. And looking for any answers that might mitigate the apparent economic madness. That's not trolling and he isn't one.
I don't think anyone believes the government have done a good job of explaining the situation we are in.
You’ve been well and truly played I’m afraid TiRed.
@TiRed - If his tin box crashes is it part of what he signed up for ? Maybe? Possibly? Probably not ... but it is a known risk for which he's compensated for.
The misconception here is one which I've called out many times. The NHS is not just doctors and nurses, it's a whole host of roles both clinical and non-clinical. So the appalling comment is not applicable to the cleaners who died from this horrible virus whilst simply doing a minimum wage job. They did not sign up for any of this. There are many more examples like that but I can't be arsed
kelvin, you wrote...
But this poster has used multiple forum names to troll people on this subject, and I have no idea why this is now acceptable.
On the previous page I wrote...
Mods – a quote from pondlife’s lengthy post further up this page…
I am an occasional contributor to STW via another account
My understanding was one account per person; can you confirm?
I recall a mod's post from some time ago which stated that.
A nice picture of the vaccine landscape from https://www.biocentury.com/article/632064
The window closes on US testing because once one is approved, placebo controlled trials become ethically challenging. Indeed maintaining subjects on placebo is challenging. Protein, peptide and virus-based vaccines are precedented. The mRNA are a new modality, but the delivery mechanism for them has been used for delivery of other drugs. Approval for a conventional vaccine and new drug application (NDA) is conventionally 12 months from date of submission. Yes, you read that correctly - it takes the FDA a whole year to review a new drug. Six months for a supplementary drug application (sNDA).
I've just finished nights on ITU, a sweaty, awkward, physically and mentally draining experience complete with a number of body bags; they're not points on a graph, they're dead people.
I've watched people with the same experience as me walk out and hand in their resignations in the last couple of days due to the stress and impossible demands upon them.
We didn't run out of capacity because we doubled it to cope.
We didn't double the number of critical care staff though and those staff are still living the same dream some 10 months on.
@crikey - thank you, it's much appreciated by all of us even if we're too busy bickering to tell you
👍
Thanks again. And please tell the other Crikeys that they are appreciated.
El Shalimo
@crikey – thank you, it’s much appreciated by all of us even if we’re too busy bickering to tell you
As my kids would say, 100%. The real heroes on the front line of this must be in bits after their herculean efforts.
My industry (aviation) is being decimated, but I won't use that as an excuse to believe conspiracy theories. Some of the First Officers I flew with and knew well, also had partners flying as cabin crew. Both have been made redundant on statutory minimums. It will take YEARS for the redundant pilots to return to flying jobs, let alone those about to start training.
I took a part time contract reduction to try and reduce compulsory redundancies. As of today Ive been furloughed on reduced pay. With that double whammy I'm now receiving 37% of my full time salary.
But I still have a job, my health and a lovely family.
TiReD
Actually I think that’s harsh..
Harsh perhaps but true.
I don’t think anyone believes the government have done a good job of explaining the situation we are in.
Certainly no-one sane with a degree of education.
@pondlife is working in an industry that has been completely decimated (as are several others here). A colleague with whom they shared an “office” for hours on end, sometimes in highly stressful situations, has committed suicide, most likely due to concerns about repaying huge training fees and providing for a family. I’d be absolutely raging in the same circumstances! As would most other people. And looking for any answers that might mitigate the apparent economic madness. That’s not trolling and he isn’t one.
As I said earlier lot of people with lots of spare time and lots of conspiracy videos
repeat....
I don’t think anyone believes the government have done a good job of explaining the situation we are in.
This isn't exactly new for this government.
If I'd been busy flying across the pond whist Covid and earlier "explanations" (miscommunications) were going on and then parachuted in it's easy to see how the conspiracies may explain the utter incompetence.
As it is I sat and watched as "experts" were denigrated and science (or economics for that matter) were treated as public opinion.
Perhaps it is a pilot trait? My brother who was accepted onto BA pilot training but then did his sponsored BEng in aeronautical engineering is also heavily into conspiracies.
It's Friday, can we all just play nicely ?
Once again, thanks to Tired and the multiple other posters giving massively useful insight. It really is appreciated.
Tough times in this household, 4 year old now in two weeks isolation, and my teacher wife just coming out of two weeks.
I speak inevitably as someone close to the situation and therefore more emotionally influenced, but I think to the points around transparency and clear communication, simple acknowledgment and empathy would go a long way. Have the government ever acknowledged the real, prolonged impact of asking teachers to do what they do every day, keeping it normal for the kids, not wearing PPE, watching their colleagues catch it and in some cases become very ill as a result, worrying about being the transmission vector to their families and loved ones.
As Tired has so rightly said, there are no good choices here. But as others, Pondlife included have said, better communication around these difficult choices and transparency would go a long way.
Pondlife, very sorry to hear about your first officer.
@loum and @dougiedogg - Thanks for the comments, I have passed them on!
Good luck to both of you with your treatment.
@crikey - and thanks to you! Sounds horrendous.
I’m lost here (and run out of popcorn) is @pondlife dantsw13 ?
Anyhow, BA long haul barons have always lived in a little bubble but I have also noticed a lot of my colleagues in aviation are railing against the science, one even phoned me to say that Trump had the cure...
But I still struggle with the reasoning limiting you to only to meet up with one other person outside for exercise, surely outside the risk of transmission is so low that the balancing mental health benefits outweigh the risk !?
On a positive note TiRed your son might be in a good position in two/three years time, the aviation industry has always been cyclical but admittedly we haven’t had anything like this before.
On a positive note TiRed your son might be in a good position in two/three years time
That was his reason for heading to Ireland for a year at Uni rather than straight to flight school. I'm optimistic.
No!!!!!!!!!
Currently being reported by the Telegraph:
The draft plans, seen by Health Service Journal, say that the “bulk” of vaccines of the last group are likely to occur in March, meaning that almost the whole population should have been offered jabs by Easter.
The dates pencilled in for beginning each group are:
Care home residents and staff, healthcare workers - from beginning of December
Ages 80 plus - from mid-December
Everyone aged 70-80 - from late December
Everyone aged 65-70 - from early January
All high and moderate risk under 65s - from early January
Everyone aged 50-65 - from mid January
Everyone aged 18-50 - from late January, but with the bulk of this group vaccinated during March
What your type (public sector) don’t seem to understand though is that for many, lockdown (or other similar restrictions) is not a game. It is a matter of life and death, feeding your kids or not, loosing your job or not, having your business destroyed or not.
public sector here. Spent most of this week talking redundancies for some or all of my team early next year. Seems like all I have done for the last 10 years is make people redundant (and have been made redundant myself) from public sector roles. It will lag by 12 months or so but public services are about to be hit hard yet again.
^^Hopefully that vaccination timeline holds^^^^ but it sounds a tad optimistic.
I think the Telegraph are being optimistic… or rather have a source prone to boosterism… but within 6-9 months is looking more and more likely, isn’t it.
2H21 with influenza will surely be mass vaccination timescale, normality by 2021. Under-promise, over-deliver. Our (Sanofi/GSK) vaccine is 2H21, Merck the same.
I asked a while back - are any of these vaccines being speculatively manufactured pending approval?
I’m still thinking 9 months to complete, but a lot of the most useful groups are looking at within 6 months now, no? Or am I getting swept up in the optimism?
With the H1N1 vaccine it took just over 6 months to vacinate everyone willing to be vacinated from it's authorisation in November 2009 in France. That four month timetable seems plausible given the resources that are going to be thrown at this to get everyone who still has a job back to work.
I asked a while back – are any of these vaccines being speculatively manufactured pending approval?
Most of them! Bet big that they will work.