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Obviously we’re not doing nothing
What are we doing? Asking people to wash their hands more. Great. We're not even testing people at high risk. If we're not testing, we have no information and we can't do anything else. Have a read of the following twitter thread and tell me you think we're doing enough.
https://twitter.com/michaeltinmouth/status/1237308267552034821?s=20
Herd immunity is the way forward.
No school closures. Let it spread slowly through the country.
That is the output of today's COBRA meeting.
Eh?
If we’re not testing, we have no information and we can’t do anything else.
At the moment, it's hard to tell if we're still on the same outbreak curve as Italy. Not sure why we wouldn't be, though. We are getting fewer new cases than you might expect if we were progressing at the same rate as Italy, but that might be an artefact of lack of testing rather than good news.
I found this a really good read about how the virus spreads, who is containing it well and what practical steps governments can take
Idle musing on the reported UK figures - officially the last time anyone recovered in the UK was when 10 new 'recovered' cases were announced on 5th March. That announcement came quite some time after the initial announcement of 8 recoveries (from the 9 confirmed cases at the time). I'm guessing that more people have actually recovered but they aren't actually recorded as recovered until they've had 2 clear tests (seems to be the benchmark elsewhere) so can only infer that recoveries are not being prioritised in the testing. That approach seems fair enough, but could lead to misinterpretation of the data by some, and wilful misrepresentation by others.
Had one of my colleagues turn up for work this morning with all the symptoms. Said it was just flu and nothing to worry about! Boss has just rung me and said they sent him home, all of us that were with him this morning should let them know if we feel unwell any time in the next few days. Just what I need on my last day before 12 days off.
If I have picked it up that means there's no chance of me visiting my ill parents for a while, if they get it they'll be stuffed! Dad's still going through chemo and mum's suffering from an autoimmune issue that means her body is attacking itself leaving loads of open wounds and scabs on her skin. My sister is off I'll with a gun infection from having a wisdom tooth out and I definitely don't want to pass it on to my niece or nephew.
Seeing as we get 9 week's full pay for illness if his idiotic actions have got me infected I'll gladly take the disciplinary for pinching him, repeatedly in the nuts.
Seeing as we get 9 week’s full pay for illness if his idiotic actions have got me infected I’ll gladly take the disciplinary for pinching him, repeatedly in the nuts.
You are Joe Marler and I claim my 5 rolls of bog roll!
Just what I need on my last day before 12 days off
If it makes you feel any better, I've got two weeks work left before a 20 week (unpaid) sabbatical which I intended to spend travelling around Europe & the Balkans.
You can read the different phase stages here.
Have a read of the following twitter thread
So just to be sure I'm reading this right. The anecdotal evidence of people who aren't aware enough of how this works to even realise how little they understand it is enough to prove the people who have the actual evidence, knowledge and experience born of dealing with things like foot and mouth, or the flapper-we're-all-gonna-DIE-favourite CJD, to acknowledge they don't really know what's going to happen and how they won't for months are wrong in their approach?
Out of interest how many world cups would England have won if you were manager?
Herd immunity is the way forward.
No school closures. Let it spread slowly through the country.
That is the output of today’s COBRA meeting.
Eh?
Well the figures I worked out were based on a perfectly controlled spread at a constant 154K/cases a week (which won't happen) - it will still totally overwhelm the heath service, so 95% of the 20% of severe/critical won't get the treatment they need. Expect Lombardy 8%+ death rates
60% of population – 40M people getting it in the next 12 months
8M needing O2 or ventilation (WHO data, 20% needing hosp. 15% needing o2, 5% ventilators in ICU)
154K a week
Assume 2 weeks hospitalisation required (likely more for severe/acute)
Need approx. 300K beds to manage
75K ICU beds with ventilators
225K general beds with O2
We have 102K general and acute beds in the UK at 92% occupancy = 8260 free
We have 4K ICU beds at 75% occupancy = 1000 free
I.e. We can only treat 1/75 = 1.3% of patients requiring ventilation
We can only treat 8.26/225 = 3.7% of patients requiring O2
i.e. Most of the 8M people needing hospital o2/ventilation won’t get it and likely die
just walked into town, I don't know if they know something we don't but the local conservative club is flying the english flag at half mast!
knowledge and experience born of dealing with things like foot and mouth,
Let's hope that those tactics aren't considered particularly transferable.
Let’s hope that those tactics aren’t considered particularly transferable.
I'd hope the lessons are though
My post above re: no school closures may be inaccurate due to a source issue.
My apologies if this is the case.
Well the figures I worked out were based on a perfectly controlled spread at a constant 154K/cases a week (which won’t happen) – it will still totally overwhelm the heath service, so 95% of the 20% of severe/critical won’t get the treatment they need. Expect Lombardy 8%+ death rates
60% of population – 40M people getting it in the next 12 months
8M needing O2 or ventilation (WHO data, 20% needing hosp. 15% needing o2, 5% ventilators in ICU)
154K a week
Assume 2 weeks hospitalisation required (likely more for severe/acute)
Need approx. 300K beds to manage
75K ICU beds with ventilators
225K general beds with O2
We have 102K general and acute beds in the UK at 92% occupancy = 8260 free
We have 4K ICU beds at 75% occupancy = 1000 free
I.e. We can only treat 1/75 = 1.3% of patients requiring ventilation
We can only treat 8.26/225 = 3.7% of patients requiring O2
i.e. Most of the 8M people needing hospital o2/ventilation won’t get it and likely die
Completely mad. A lot of people will have it/had it without knowing and cases that haven't ended. The death rate is only from those with known cases. And they're still overwhelmingly of an old demographic with underlying issues.
Not sure why we don't just quarantine those at risk groups and get on with our lives, and be sensible. For most people it will be nothing more than mild flu if anything at all.
The stats don't appear to warrant lockdowns etc. Struggling to get my head round it tbh.
They are currently No 3 with most infection rate per capita!
At least measured infection rate. Why would theirs be higher than ours??
Not sure why we don’t just quarantine those at risk groups and get on with our lives, and be sensible.
That would be a logical thing. Quarantine the elderly and compromised while herd immunity builds in everyone else. If you can have any kind of success with that, you are starting to influence the rate at which seriously-ill cases flow towards hospital.
Mother's day in 10 days, folks. What are you giving your mum this year?
@Mudmuncher Your numbers are iffy
You're not taking into account age or underlying issues. Anyone over 60 has a 3.6% chance of dying getting higher as you increase in age. Under 60 ie the 50-59 age group there is a 1.3% chance, getting lower than 1% decreasing in age. If you have an underlying issue this can increase the chance of death quite substantially, in fact most deaths recorded the patients have had underlying issues.
The UK has around 18% of the population over 60, yes we're an old nation. You should take this into account with your figures if you're going to present anything.
If anything that is a worse case scenario which doesn't take any sort of demographics/lockdown (flattening the curve)/social distancing into account.
@joefm is more than likely correct, 1000's of people will have had this all over the globe with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Many people have had it and not been tested due to complacency issues with 111/Gov/lack of training so will not appear on confirmed figures nor ever will unless there is mass antibody testing.
What are you giving your mum this year?
A wide berth - nothing new there though! (MIL actually.... mum went years ago)
It's not going to be over the next year unless the rate of spread changes dramatically. currently, cases are increasing at around 20% per day. This means (with no dramatic action) we'll pass the point where Italy locked down around the 27th, Then after Easter it'll reach 1% of the population, just 3 weeks later it'll be at nearly 60%. That's the nature of an exponential.
If we don't act hard to slow the spread then you can forget treatment by the NHS. Its total capacity after Easter will be insignificant compared to the cases.
Bottom line: the government's choice is Lockdown or dig mass graves, the only other decision is when to start.
If you have an underlying issue this can increase the chance of death quite substantially, in fact most deaths recorded the patients have had underlying issues.
My advice is not to look at the mortality and hospitalisation rates for people with diabetes… if you or any of your kin are diabetic. I wish I hadn’t.
And, also… the attitude of “we don’t need stringent control measures, because in the main it’s the old and infirm that’ll die”, is starting to rile me. I’m all right jack, thin the herd, Tory Britain.
Then after Easter it’ll reach 1% of the population, just 3 weeks later it’ll be at nearly 60%. That’s the nature of an exponential.
Why aren't we all already dead from measles?
Immunisation.
At least measured infection rate.
Exactly. Wife had appointment with doctor today as she has a virus of some sort for a few weeks (fatigue, anorexia). Doctor agreed definitely a virus which could be Covid19 but probably not.
No need to test for it. What if she has gone mild symptoms, if she did have it then so do I (I ben't felt 100% for a few weeks either). I have been happily going to work in an office of 4,000.
We are not part of the stats and never will be as no test...
My advice is not to look at the mortality and hospitalisation rates for people with diabetes… if you or any of your kin are diabetic. I wish I hadn’t.
7 or 8% death rate across all ages isn’t it? Currently working from home and no plans to go anywhere I don’t know where everyone’s been...
jolmes
Member
@Mudmuncher Your numbers are iffy
You’re not taking into account age or underlying issues. Anyone over 60 has a 3.6% chance of dying getting higher as you increase in age. Under 60 ie the 50-59 age group there is a 1.3% chance, getting lower than 1% decreasing in age. If you have an underlying issue this can increase the chance of death quite substantially, in fact most deaths recorded the patients have had underlying issues.
The UK has around 18% of the population over 60, yes we’re an old nation. You should take this into account with your figures if you’re going to present anything.
If anything that is a worse case scenario which doesn’t take any sort of demographics/lockdown (flattening the curve)/social distancing into account.
@joefm is more than likely correct, 1000’s of people will have had this all over the globe with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Many people have had it and not been tested due to complacency issues with 111/Gov/lack of training so will not appear on confirmed figures nor ever will unless there is mass antibody testing.
That isn't correct, the data from the WHO based on the mission to China suggest 20% need hospitalisation (15% need O2 and 5% need ventilation). China has a lower average age than the UK too, so we will be worse off.
The calculation was based on a completely flat curve, I.e. the 8M people needing hospitalisation over 12 months presenting at 150K/week - again this is totally ideal and it will be much worse than this.
In China WHO didn't find evidence of widespread asymptomatic transmission that was missed and the Chinese tested a lot of people.
I'm not saying my numbers are totally accurate, but what I can say with a lot of confidence is the NHS can't get anywhere close to providing the treatment needed for 30-40M people getting this over the next 12 months so the death rate will much higher than 1%
My advice is not to look at the mortality and hospitalisation rates for people with diabetes… if you or any of your kin are diabetic.
If you are going to look at tables, you need to take into account the age groups as well. No children under 9 have died from C19 as of yet. The 10-19 age group have 0.2% chance. In fact it stays at that level until 40-49 where it increases to 0.4% Its morbid to think about but I guess this is my job.
@tomhoward - this might fail on formatting...
AGE DEATH RATE DEATH RATE
confirmed cases all cases
80+ years old 21.9% 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Why aren’t we all already dead from measles?
kelvin
Subscriber
Immunisation
I'd wager measles was around for a while before the vaccination was available, just a hunch though.
Same with small pox, plague (the nasty airborne variety) and any number of other diseases the growth in cases doesn't continue at the same rate for ever.
Seeing as this is the end of the world and we're all definitely going to die anyway, instead of self-isolating, would going out on a massive 14 day coke and hookers binge instead significantly increase the likelihood of infection?
Asking for a friend
Until updated PHE advice yesterday we were only testing people with travel to at-risk countries and those who had contact with definite cases of Covid.
That means the vast majority of people with cold/flu-like illnesses would not have been tested.
As someone that works in healthcare, I am really worried about an Italy-style situation. It seems like the government is happy to risk that in the name of stability of the economy. I care about my parents and friends, not some nebulous construct. I don't understand how the two are remotely comparable. It's of course possible I just don't get why the economy is important. In the style of Monty Python: what has the economy ever done for me?
But I do wonder if it's because MPs have a completely London-centric viewpoint, they put too much value on the stability of the economy and not enough on people's lives.
The stats don’t appear to warrant lockdowns etc.
FFS cases in other countries clearly show that if effective early action is not taken and exponential spread kicks in, then it'll be too late to prevent the health system collapsing with a resultant much higher mortality rate. Telling people to wash their hands is not 'early action'. Mass testing and screening would be a good example of early action, along with the cancellation of sporting events and mass homeworking. We're not doing any of these yet. Instead we have a debate about the 'science' and irresponsible theorising about herd immunity and letting it spread at 'sustainable' levels.
If/when it gets to the point of doctors triaging people in hospital corridors and condemning them to death, there will be massive anger, fear and paranoia. We can risk that or we can spend a few weeks at home. Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Over here, the Basque govt has closed schools, unis etc as of tomorrow, initally for 15 days. 350 cases, 11 dead, 3-odd percent.
So in the 30-39 bracket, with a 0.2% mortality rate, Do 7-8% of that 0.2% have diabetes, or were they all diabetic, leading to only 0.2% overall. That’s what I’m having trouble with finding stats on.
China has a lower average age than the UK too, so we will be worse off.
How is there life expectancy over all? The rate of chronic illness etc?
I am really worried about an Italy-style situation. It seems like the government is happy to risk that in the name of stability of the economy. I care about my parents and friends, not some nebulous construct.
It's not some nebulous construct. It's your job and mine, it's what puts food on your table, roofs over heads, penecilin and basic meds in hospitals.
Poverty kills, lots of people. It reduces life expectancy, increases risk of disease reduces access to education.
If it goes pop you won't be worrying about your mum and grandad you'll be worrying about your son and granddaughter.
The "shut everything down" approach would see the whole country reduced to the outlook of an pit town after closure.
edit: dob said it better
Why aren’t we all already dead from measles?
Go do some research in to what effect measles had on native island populations that hadn't previously been exposed to the virus.
spend a few weeks at home
Please correct me if I am wrong, which I usually am, but surely if we do this and then return to normal, it hasn't gone away and will just happen again?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/health-expert-brands-uks-coronavirus-response-pathetic
will just happen again
Yep, most of the health reports state it basically follows the same pattern as Flu, its just that right now we haven't been immunised via exposure by our one internal immune system.
I have to agree Dazh, it’s looking beyond pathetic. And the media repeating “herd immunity”, just because gov talking heads are, when we don’t yet know if this virus can be caught more than once, or the nature of any second exposure, is odd.
@tomhoward - its not a total number of cases, its just a rate, so probability. Not my strong point! P(30-39) = 0.2 * P(diabetic) = 7% = 1.46% Hopefully a better statistician can correct me.
The mortality rates cannot and should not be compared to china
What if a load of old people contracted c19 and were bussed to a pop up hospital, and as their demographic meant less than optimal care, in a wooden shed bstaffed by overwhelmed medical staff
Put enough old people anywhere together for any time and some will die with or without viral infection
Hopefully the UK has been buying the necessary pharma and life persevering equipment on the quiet over the last few weeks, although due to spectacular levels of head in sand probably not
There will be deaths, tens of thousands probably over the next 4 months some of whom would have died anyway from normal seasonal flu, old age, cancer, strokes, heart attacks,
C19 exposure will accelerate this and grow the numbers hugely
My mum is 88 and getting frail and wobbly so will find fighting a massive infection impossible. Tough times
https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/1238093257281806338?s=21
Note that Halpern is not an expert in this area, Beale is.
Go do some research in to what effect measles had on native island populations that hadn’t previously been exposed to the virus.
Decimated largely if not actually wiped out, though often by starvation or dehydration as much as the direct effects of the disease, but a tiny population isn't a good illustration of a global one.
The problem being the rate of spread is far quicker than the development of immunity or death, which is presently the case with Covid-19.
In a few weeks/months whatever though the rate of infection will drop off as more and more of the healthy folk have had prior exposure and recovered, abdominal are now less susceptible to contracting a second time. Same as the mortality will fall as those with the greatest susceptibility have been killed off early.
My point is the numbers this early in the outbreak can't be directly used to predict what will happen in a few months, they need some very heavy modeling.
it hasn’t gone away and will just happen again?
True, but it will at least give us some breathing space (sorry) to prepare properly for a long and sustained effort. The key is avoiding the collapse of the health service, and keeping as many doctors, nurses and other hospital staff healthy. If we don't do this we risk a much worse situation later with much more draconian measures being necessary, and with many, many more dead people. People going to the races, watching the football or spending a week in Spain over easter are not essential national activities that we can't do without.
But I do wonder if it’s because MPs have a completely London-centric viewpoint, they put too much value on the stability of the economy and not enough on people’s lives.
As it is a tory government full of massive ****ers (even for tory MPs) then I am going to say yes.
I'm not understanding why others would be told to work from home but teachers shouldnt
The nation is head in sand, completely. Our sham of a cabinet leading by example.
I spoke to my parents a day or two ago. Dad, 86, mum 83, she says "oh we shan't do anything different, we won't get it anyway." Dad's waiting on a heart op. "you know we've had epidemics before, we survived those". ARGH.
I’m not understanding why others would be told to work from home but teachers shouldnt
I think it's qualified with "where possible".
I’m not understanding why others would be told to work from home but teachers shouldnt
Revenge for the summer holidays.
It's about bloody time! 😉
So, China, a country of 3,000,000,000 people, has had 100,000 cases and is now lifting its quarantine measures. Allegedly only 10 new cases a day in a country that size? Are their numbers about to explode or are they spraying something in the chemtrails!
Also, why has Germany only had 3 deaths, when apparently the Italian outbreak came from there?
Turkey only reported 1 case..........
I’m not understanding why others would be told to work from home but teachers shouldnt
There are a shit load of kids close to taking SATS, GSCE's and A levels who need their help?
All Scottish event over 500 attendees cancelled
All Scottish event over 500 attendees cancelled
The Motherwell game'll still be on then?
But I do wonder if it’s because MPs have a completely London-centric viewpoint, they put too much value on the stability of the economy and not enough on people’s lives.
As it is a tory government full of massive * (even for tory MPs) then I am going to say yes.
Just look at them. Look at what they're all about. Look at the track record of people like Iain Duncan Smith. You can put your house on there being some of them who, as well as not giving a flying * how many people die, will actually be viewing the plus side of it reducing the benefits bill.
Less pensioners = less pensions
There's a lot of truth in this
It’s not some nebulous construct. It’s your job and mine, it’s what puts food on your table, roofs over heads, penecilin and basic meds in hospitals.
Poverty kills, lots of people. It reduces life expectancy, increases risk of disease reduces access to education.
If it goes pop you won’t be worrying about your mum and grandad you’ll be worrying about your son and granddaughter.
The “shut everything down” approach would see the whole country reduced to the outlook of an pit town after closure.
It makes me wonder if people know the link between the economy to their jobs and lives at all. But seeing Brexit obviously not
It’s not some nebulous construct. It’s your job and mine, it’s what puts food on your table, roofs over heads, penecilin and basic meds in hospitals.
Poverty kills, lots of people. It reduces life expectancy, increases risk of disease reduces access to education.
If it goes pop you won’t be worrying about your mum and grandad you’ll be worrying about your son and granddaughter.
The “shut everything down” approach would see the whole country reduced to the outlook of an pit town after closure.
I'd happily live in that pit town amongst a community doing everything they can to work with and protect each other.
The idea that we'd trade lives for a strong economy just leaves me speechless. What are we without basic human compassion?
What are we without basic human compassion?
Politicians?
a few less pensioners would not be enough savings to undo the economic harm going on at the moment...
ref China, makes me wonder how much smoking has a role in determining the seriousness of cases.
The idea that we’d trade lives for a strong economy just leaves me speechless. What are we without basic human compassion?
Tories?
I'm wondering whether to order one of these?
https://www.banggood.com/DDT-1A-6L-Oxygen-Concentrator-Portable-Air-PurifIer-Generator-Medical-Machine-p-1256400.html
On the plus side, it will help breathing
On the down side, it will be delivered from China.
134 new cases since yesterday and 2 more deaths 🙁
I’m not understanding why others would be told to work from home but teachers shouldnt
You get enough time off plus who is going to look after the kids so everyone else working at home can ride their bikes?
I’d happily live in that pit town amongst a community doing everything they can to work with and protect each other.
The idea that we’d trade lives for a strong economy just leaves me speechless. What are we without basic human compassion?
then isolate those at risk.
Financial hardship shouldn't be underestimated either.
I'm trying to find something positive today, and I'm really struggling.
Hopefully the UK has been buying the necessary pharma and life persevering equipment on the quiet over the last few weeks, although due to spectacular levels of head in sand probably not
It’s a virus that causes viral pneumonia, that’s why it kills people because drugs can’t be used.
Then there’s equipment, well yes apparently if you have an intensive care bed you can put someone on a ventilator (which breaths for you) until the virus has run it’s course. Apparently though then you catch bacterial pneumonia and potentially die from that.
Well, Norway is currently shutting down.
All Schools, Nurseries, and Universities are closed until April.
I'm quite happy, tbh. But then this is a country that has a welfare system that can cope with these kind of economic shocks.
Wish I hadn't started reading this thread 🙁 I'm 73 next month with a Levo e-bike on order!
And no you can't have it - my son has already bagged first rights 🙂
Well The Who tour is being postponed so some action is being taken.
I’d happily live in that pit town amongst a community doing everything they can to work with and protect each other.
The idea that we’d trade lives for a strong economy just leaves me speechless. What are we without basic human compassion?
A) I'm guessing you haven't, (I'm fortunate I'm a generation behind but the effects were plain to see when I was a lad, they still are).
B) with a weak economy all those lives you so gallantry saved will be ended, very quickly, as you realise the mass unemployment you opted for just took 10 or more years off everyone's life expectancy.
It's not a choice between the FTSE and your father, it's a choice between your father and your kids.
If it helps you any, I'd trade a few more years of my dad's life for a few more for a strangers children. I'm not in favour of a strong economy because I'm heartless, quite the opposite. I can just see further than my own nose.
Biggest daily jump in official cases today, up to 590 from 456. It's increasing every day, because it's exponential. The true figures are probably 10 times that. It's ok though, there's football on and race meetings to go to. Stiff upper lip and all that. I despair for the doctors.
st colin
I’m trying to find something positive today, and I’m really struggling.
Don't read this ****ing thread, stay away from the news and dickheads on Twitter. What's wrong now? Nothing.
Jesus christ.
Well The Who tour is being postponed so some action is being taken
Good they should be coordinating the response, not going on a jolly 😉
It’s ok though, there’s football on and race meetings to go to. Stiff upper lip and all that.
I did think it was absolutely mental that while other European games were being played behind closed doors, a few thousand Atletico fans flew into Liverpool to last night join a packed Anfield, while having had a day or two mooching around the bars of Liverpool.
I see that after Lewis Hamilton saying it was mental that Australian GP was taking place, that the first members of the McClaren team have tested positive and they've pulled out
Surely its an absolute no-brainer that events like this, with tens of thousands of people travelling in from all over the shop, shouldn't be going ahead?
Policy appears to be following the 4 step plan
Trump sounds decidedly sniffly and unwell in his crazy address