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That Trump travel ban is properly mental and lacking in any logic. As expected from him.
EDIT: Ah, just worked it out. He has golf courses in the UK and Ireland.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51836898
This is quite a good article about South Korea showing that it can be contained to an extent without going to the extremes that China went to.
Is it just me or does everyone seem like they're massively overreacting? If 1/2 have no symptoms and death rate is less than 4% of those infected, why is the global economy shutting down? Is it the threat it poses to health systems alone? For SARS, I was hidden away in some mountains and the whole thing passed me by - wasn't it worse than Convid-19 yet entire countries were not locked down?
What's remarkable about this situation is how potent and effective an actual biological weapon would be in pulling the plug on what we all thought was this economic model too well-greased to stop. Imagine you had something like the Coronavirus but it killed its host within 48 hours. Imagine the panic then and how the entire system would just grind to a halt.
Lastly, is anyone not incredulous about the zero discussion on how these viruses (SARS, etc.) begin and spread? Because basically certain countries want to eat cheap meat products instead of just eating some tofu or whatever, and now the global economy is ****ed. Imagine the sanctions which would be placed on country which purposely spread something like this, but when it does it through being incompetent/careless, virtually nothing is said about it.
Is it just me
Increasingly, yes.
Imagine you had something like the Coronavirus but it killed its host within 48 hours.
or better still something that you catch that shows no symptoms for nearly a week that you can still transmit to other people but then hits you like a 10 ton bus.
Is it just me
It is, to an extent.
The constant news feed and 'score board' isn't helping our thinking. And yes, some folk are overreacting.
But the guy next door to our office, just returned from Italy and felt unwell, yet wandered around business park for two days before telling his boss, highlights how this thing could spread.
What that guy doesn't know is the CEO next door has compromised immunity following cancer treatment, my wife has primary immunodeficiency and our secretary cares for an 80yr old father with a heart issue.
So potentially infecting the rest of the corridor may lead to serious, life threatening issues for three people.
So no, we're not overreacting.
Lastly, is anyone not incredulous about the zero discussion on how these viruses (SARS, etc.) begin and spread? Because basically certain countries want to eat cheap meat products
Seems you know the source of the virus you best contact the authorities as it’s unknown where it originated.
If 1/2 have no symptoms and death rate is less than 4% of those infected
If half the country get it, then that’s over a million dead, based on those figures. 140 million globally.
80yr old father with a heart issue.
Me too - plus another member of the family who would likely die as a result and she's in her 30's.
But that said, closing all travel between the US/EU - I mean, that's unprecedented in recent times right?
Seems you know the source of the virus you best contact the authorities as it’s unknown where it originated.
It's part of the SARS 'family' of viruses like Swine Flu that originated from close contact with animals kept in filthy, inhumane conditions. Correct me if I'm wrong!
Must admit, I am feeling very anxious about this, more so than a couple of weeks ago when the signs where going up in bright lights...
Job security and welfare of immediate family is at the forefront of my mind today. I feel almost certain a global recession is just around the corner, too.
But that said, closing all travel between the US/EU – I mean, that’s unprecedented in recent times right?
There's certainly no logic to that, I'll grant you, given that Covid-19 seems pretty established in the US already.
It’s part of the SARS ‘family’ of viruses like Swine Flu that originated from close contact with animals kept in filthy, inhumane conditions.
It's part of the coronavirus family, alongside the 'common cold', SARS and MERS. Swine flu is something completely different. So, nope.
Me too – plus another member of the family who would likely die as a result and she’s in her 30’s.
Everything that is and will be done is aimed at protecting people like this.
death rate is less than 4% of those infected
Est. 80% infection rate.
66.5 million people in this country
That's about 2,124,800 dead, if my maths is right.
Are they going to stay at home and die quietly?
Maybe a few more * might * need hospitalisation, eh?
The NHS "winter" crisis means about 100,000 more hospitalisations (NHS figure).
Here, to help: 2,124,800 vs 100,000 over a similar time period.
Where do these 2 million extra hospital beds come from fatmountain?
Do you really imagine that the "normal" NHS functions are going to still be functioning?
That’s everything shutting down here in Denmark!
Sweden has announced some measures with regard to COVID, currently banning large gatherings for things like sports event with over 500 people.
I fully expect us to go the same way as Denmark in a couple of days, maybe even limiting travel within the country, which will mess up the plans for the Indoor SM in Göteborg...
It’s part of the SARS ‘family’ of viruses like Swine Flu that originated from close contact with animals kept in filthy, inhumane conditions. Correct me if I’m wrong!
You’re wrong. Wrong virus and they’re still unsure how it transmitted.
Yes there is some overreaction but there’s also a real threat of humans lives and of course the economy.
Has anyone else seen the Twitter reaction to Raab's appearance in Parliament yesterday?
His brother works in the “nuclear police” (whateverTF that is)
Civil Nuclear Constabulary.
Armed Police Force for looking after Nuclear power plants and transport of Nuclear materials.
Like a glow in the dark Transport Police.
But with guns!
There used to be a bunch of them at BNFL in Risley.
Where do these 2 million extra hospital beds come from fatmountain?
Do you really think we'll have 80% of the population sick at the same time? No, there will be a spike in the coming weeks into the thousands/low 10s of thousands and then that will most likely attenuate as additional government measures kick in and social behaviour changes as people realise it's not 'just like flu'. Not saying it's going to be easy, but there won't be 2 million people all waiting for a bed and this sort of sloppy thinking and scaremongering doesn't help anyone.
But that said, closing all travel between the US/EU – I mean, that’s unprecedented in recent times right?
It is, in the West for sure, but global pandemics are real, just think of Spanish Flu which killed millions and that was when people were far less mobile than they are now both within their own country and abroad.
Ah, just worked it out. He has golf courses in the UK and Ireland.
More likely we're predominantly a white English speaking country so it can't be our fault.
No, but Italy has only had 10000 cases, and their (much bigger than ours) health service is completely overrun.
Isn't someone on here a recruiter for the CNC?
I might be looking for a new job soon too - sounds interesting!
Trumps travel band seems to have "spooked" the markets even more. down 6.5%
China reporting they have peaked and are considering reopening schools etc. Why does it seem like that is a bad idea? Surely the virus could just spread again just as before? Do we know about what happens to the immune system with COVID19 after you have had it?
That document @Mefty linked to had a minimum timeframe for an available vaccine as 4-6 months.
Is the longer time frames suggested for Covid19 (rather and Influenza) due to added difficulties in creating a vaccine that works? Or down to Flu vaccines being a well established annual process? Or something else?
They had a clip of trump on R4 this morning. Mind picklingly bizarre.
Nasty foreign, very foreign and un-American virus doing bad things. Very bad. Bad. I will protect the American people from this foreign thing. Bad, bad thing.
Just pandering to his base. He now has two possible successes to use on his re-election trail:
- It doesn't get so bad in the US, thanks to his decisive and bold steps. Yaay.
- It goes to shit. But only due to nasty, nasty foreign things. I have done more than any president to keep America safe but these foreign countries didn't get their problem under control and sent it to us. I'm tougher than you can believe on these miscreants. Keep America great. yaay.
Nasty foreign, very foreign and un-American virus doing bad things. Very bad. Bad. I will protect the American people from this foreign thing. Bad, bad thing.
I was saying to my girlfriend last night, it's like listening to a child.
There is a member of the cabinet in isolation awaiting test results, I wonder if it is Raab.
I'm not sure re the vaccine. I was reading somme interesting work on antivirals and the structure of this type of virus but vaccines were only mentioned in passing.
Influenza is a different type of virus. They've been doing vaccines for ages and all of them are slight variations on the last. There haven't been many reasons to investigate Corona viruses as most were either relatively harmless or very rare. There are little economic reasons to do anything. The way research is funded means there needs to be someone prepared to pay - either a government/organisation for health care or private companies for profit. No one's been interested so not much work has been done.
There are a few ways of making a vaccine (thinking back to my first year at uni). Once you find a way that works and can be scaled/produced you need to trial. This takes time. I think they are at phase one now which will take a few months. Making sure it isn't going to do more harm than good given to healthy people. There are a couple more stages to ensure it is safe before it is more widely administered.
there will be a spike in the coming weeks into the thousands/low 10s of thousands
We have 800 spare ICU beds supposedly. If infection rates hit tens of thousands, and we'd potentially only need 20-30,000 infected to fill so let's hope no one we know and love is number 801
That document @Mefty linked to had a minimum timeframe for an available vaccine as 4-6 months
Not sure but so many variables in vaccine making & testing, especially if new strains have appeared
Meftys document also based on NHS capacity from 2013, which was considerably higher than we have now, bed & staffing shortages wore after a decade of austerity.
On the plus side it's been a mild winter so NHS has had a lucky escape already
Yeah the vocabulary is quite child like, but I don't think he's child like at all. He has a huge ego, and it's completely transparent in how he talks and what he talks about. You just don't get that with kids, there's a sincerity and directness that he is completely lacking.
The fact that he is still completely inwardly focused at a time like this is worrying. The terrifying bit is he has completed hollowed out all the competent technocrats in the US government. The sort of people that you need to turn pronouncements into effective action on the ground. So I'm not sure he could do a lot even if he wanted to.
Making sure it isn’t going to do more harm than good given to healthy people
As per Aspirin and Spanish Flu I guess then
Is there any info on Remdesivir effectiveness? I seen stuff about it being tried in Italy/China and I think Iran, but nothing more.
This is a reasonably good explanation of the "delay" phase.
Essentially, most of us will get it but we need to slow the spread, but avoid widespread disruption. Hence schools will likely remain open.
There is a grim logic to this but it also seems slightly defeatist
Civil Nuclear Constabulary.
Armed Police Force for looking after Nuclear power plants and transport of Nuclear materials.
With big guns, too, I've seen them practicing at Otterburn. A closish relative used to be their boss. He wasn't too pleased when the UK left Euratom against advice.
Nasty foreign, very foreign and un-American virus doing bad things. Very bad. Bad. I will protect the American people from this foreign thing. Bad, bad thing.
I was saying to my girlfriend last night, it’s like listening to a child.
On Channel 4 news last night they showed a clip of Trumps mad rambling, then it cut to their Washington correspondent, Siobhan Kennedy. She just stared incredulously into the camera for a couple of seconds. She didn't need to say a word. The look on her face said it all. We were all thinking the same thing...
WTAF???!! 😳
Is it just me or does everyone seem like they’re massively overreacting?
Directly opposing the other replies, no, it's not just you. Which makes my answer the correct one.
Just got off a call at work that closed with a senior member of the team going, 'yeah, the death rate is lower than the seasonal flu anyway, and any numbers are inflated by dodgy places like Iran, so no biggie'. At which point I asked him to revisit his sources.
I get that we don't need to overreact, but we need to be honest about what is happening and what this means for us as a society.
Essentially, most of us will get it but we need to slow the spread, but avoid widespread disruption. Hence schools will likely remain open.
So that’s that then. They’ve decided to sacrifice the vulnerable to keep the economy going. They’ll be regretting that in a couple of weeks when doctors are deciding who lives and who dies like they are in Italy.
Is it just me or does everyone seem like they’re massively overreacting?
I think if a person is starting to become overly anxious about it to the point where it's causing them sleep disruption or other health effects then that's an over reaction and counterproductive.
There are some very obvious and sensible things you could do now to limit your risk and the risk of passing it on the vulnerable people. Wash your hands, limit unnecessary travel, avoid interacting with big groups where possible. So for me I've cancelled a few trips, and 90% sure we'll be binning our Easter holiday. £600 down the drain but better than getting quarantined in a YHA for month with 3 little kids.
The other thing is to make sure you're as healthy as possible to give yourself the best chance if it comes to it. Lots of self care, exercise, good diet, reduce alcohol consumption, improve sleep hygiene.
I'm sort of using what my company is doing as a guide. We're all very used to managing very big and real risks so I'll pay attention to their advice, which broadly aligns with what I've said above.
Interestingly if you sort the table on this site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
by cases per population (final column) if gives a bit more indication of the size of the impact in reference to to the countries population. Highlighting Italy's issue starkly but also highlighting why other countries such as Denmark have enacted close-downs with seemingly smaller outbreaks.
<nvm>
Just seen this.. schools to close 20/03/2020
I find it hard to believe as it goes against most expert advice... oh hang on. Probably will happen
Where's looking relatively safe/open for 2 to 3 weeks later this/next month? I ask as I've got to use up leave and I'm a bit selfishly hacked off at prospect of potential travel bans. I'm all behind the measures but I need a break from the UK. Was looking at Norway, Spain or further afield.
Thanks
Farage is out of his box saying that we should 'shut the country down'. Ground all flights and close the borders
*sigh*
I'm sure all the gammons will be praising his 'common sense' approach, with a view to it becoming permanent
I find it hard to believe
Its the Daily Express!
Where’s looking relatively safe/open for 2 to 3 weeks later this/next month? I ask as I’ve got to use up leave and I’m a bit selfishly hacked off at prospect of potential travel bans. I’m all behind the measures but I need a break from the UK. Was looking at Norway, Spain or further afield.
Antarctica looks safe at the minute
Aren't we due some kind of meteorological armageddon style weather event or a sighting of Madeleine McCann to keep the Daily Express busy?
I thought people on here wanted the schools to close? I thought we didn't believe the expert advice?
I always though this might happen as a 2 week closure gets 4 weeks of for the schools.
I've got tickets for Spain in April, Armenia and Georgia in August. I don't think we'll be going to either.
Farage is out of his box saying that we should ‘shut the country down’. Ground all flights and close the borders
*sigh*
I’m sure all the gammons will be praising his ‘common sense’ approach, with a view to it becoming permanent
That really is Farage in a nutshell isn't it, problems are always foreign and just dying to attack us. That ship has sailed, there was no political will to close boarders when it was exploding in China, or even when there was an outbreak in Italy. It would have looked bad and it would have hurt our economy just before we do it for ourselves at the end of the year. Coronavirus is already in the UK and isn't contained.
Extending the easter break for schools by a week or two, seems a very sensible policy. Whether that extension should be starting it early, or finishing it late, depends on when the experts determine it most useful. It’s a measured action, not a panic measure, even if the Express tries to puff it up to look like one.
Farage is out of his box saying that we should ‘shut the country down’.
He’s right, but for the wrong reasons.
Are you going to expand on yours and Nigels collective solution.....?
How do you shut a country down then in this globalised world? And why would you?
And why would you?
Restrictions on travel, or testing all new arrivals, may well seem draconian, but at the same time may well be necessary in the short term when faced with an international pandemic. But I fully expect people to voluntarily reduce travel without any firm government measures anyway, especially if advised to. It would be good if those still travelling were offered tests as well. Coercion and control can easily be avoided… people are more cooperative in difficult circumstances than many fear.
Only holiday I have booked is 4 days in Scotland around Inners at the end of April. My girlfriend and her mum were due to go to Morocco at the end of this month but they have cancelled. With her dad having COPD amongst other things, it's definitely for the best.
Assuming that, having been infected the virus and subsequently recovered, that this then leaves you with an immunity to reinfection, shouldn't we be deliberately exposing* a proportion of the young,healthy,healthcare workers to the virus and giving them two weeks off now so that, four weeks from now, we have a load of immune doctors and nurses for when the shit really hits the fan?
*Not really, obviously, but an intersting thought experiment nonetheless
Are you going to expand on yours and Nigels collective solution…..?
How do you shut a country down then in this globalised world? And why would you?
Have you seen what's happened / happening in China? They're down to just a few new cases per day because they've done exactly that. Wouldn't be easy to do here, sure, but it's not at all crazy to suggest it.
Plenty of actual experts are saying that we're all acting way too little too late. It's all a matter of predicting and balancing complicatedly connected factors, and crystal balls are in even shorter supply than loo roll.
And why would you?
Have you been watching the news at all? Farage, just like Trump is disgracefully looking to blame foriegners and stoke xenophobia. We should absolutely be shutting down though. What is happening in Italy is coming here. Within a couple of weeks doctors will be making life or death decisions, and people will be dying because the NHS can't cope.
Makes for interesting listening:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/w3csyx14
Oh God! I've got the misfortune of working with a few tabloid readers at the moment, who believe everything they read on social meedya. Its been an eye-opener. You start to understand Brexit, in context
According to them, the government are definitely about to shut all the schools for the next two months, at least. They're all very angry about it and having big debates about what they're going to do about childcare.
I despair
We should absolutely be shutting down though. What is happening in Italy is coming here.
Surely it's a tad late for that.
Its behiiiiiiiiiind yooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuu!!!!!
Flying to Lanzarote in 7 days time. What a quandary. Would rather cancel right now, but I'll take a real hit financially. Or hold tight for an official shutdown and should recoup most of it. I know if I go I'll end up stuck somewhere. And also aware that we may not be welcomed to the little village with open arms. Zero cases on the island and imagine they're keen to keep it that way
The Governments solution to this is to let it burn through the population so we get herd immunity.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-12/british-government-wants-uk-to-acquire-coronavirus-herd-immunity-writes-robert-peston/
I made a fag packet calculation, can someone please show me where I have gone wrong as it looks like millions will die based on these numbers.
60% of population - 40M people getting it in the next 12 months
8M needing O2 or ventilation (WHO data, 20% needing hosp. 15% needing o2, 5% ventilators in ICU)
154K a week
Assume 2 weeks hospitalisation required (likely more for severe/acute)
Need approx. 300K beds to manage
75K ICU beds with ventilators
225K general beds with O2
We have 102K general and acute beds in the UK at 92% occupancy = 8260 free
We have 4K ICU beds at 75% occupancy = 1000 free
I.e. We can only treat 1/75 = 1.3% of patients requiring ventilation
We can only treat 8.26/225 = 3.7% of patients requiring O2
i.e. Most of the 8M people needing hospital o2/ventilation won't get it and likely die
The government really needs to be honest about this. Millions are going to die if we stick with this strategy
Is there evidence to suggest that it won't just return to locked down areas once we all crawl out of our caves after a month, starving and shit encrusted, with our health at it's lowest?
As a volunteer with access to a Food Bank warehouse restocked by Christmas bonhomie, I know where I'm holing up.
Closing schools will mean grandparents (60+, underlying health problems) stuck looking after kids while parents have to go to work. Isolate and care for those at greatest risk and the rest of us follow the medical establishments advice - that is who provides the advice that Boris etc follow and I'd like to think any other party in power would do the same. Farage is irrelevant.
Is there evidence to suggest that it won’t just return to locked down areas once we all crawl out of our caves after a month, starving and shit encrusted, with our health at it’s lowest?
It will surely return, but if it does so when there's capacity to deal with it, fewer people will die.
Is there evidence to suggest that it won’t just return to locked down areas once we all crawl out of our caves after a month
No but there is plenty of evidence that if we do nothing then thousands of people will die and the health system will collapse. At the moment government policy seems to be exactly that. It's unbelievable.
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1238065052881768449?s=21
Schools in Ireland closed. I fully expect us to do the same at some point, anchored around the Easter break. Doing it sooner looks like the right move, but I suspect that delaying any decision for a week or so more, maybe for good reasons around the predictions about spread in the UK, will be the action here, given the UK gov actions so far.
On the subject of people requiring ventilation/ITU beds; it’s not just a case of those who are made ill enough to require it by Coronavirus.
Those who are infected/carriers who have other health needs that are met/treated by either nebuliser or high flow oxygen may need to be ventilated as the former allow a large amount of excess flow out into the atmosphere (hospital ward, or treatment area) which means potential to spread the virus by using this treatment route.
Ventilation/intubation is a ‘closed’ system so it reduces this risk significantly.
So in order to prevent the potential spread of the virus, more patients will require ventilation than those who’s sole reason for its need is down to the virus itself.
(source, my wife who is an ED ACP.)
The Governments solution to this is to [s]let it burn [/s] try and control the rate at which it burns through the population so we get herd immunity and are best able to utilise the limited health resources available
FTFY
There's not really any practical way to stop it infecting the general population in the modern world. It's about slowing that spread to have the resources to treat as many people as possible
According to them, the government are definitely about to shut all the schools for the next two months, at least. They’re all very angry about it and having big debates about what they’re going to do about childcare
all Irish schools and colleges shut until end March.....so it's not out of the question
Trump blaming all this on the EU. Very pleased our government haven’t taken the same populist approach.
Very interesting @mattbee. Thanks.
No but there is plenty of evidence that if we do nothing then thousands of people will die and the health system will collapse
Obviously we're not doing nothing but, that aside, I'm with you on the first bit, what evidence have you got for the second, actual evidence, not "look at the most extreme global case, ignore every other one, that's absolutely us in two weeks".
No but there is plenty of evidence that if we do nothing then thousands of people will die and the health system will collapse. At the moment government policy seems to be exactly that. It’s unbelievable.
It is unbelievable as well it’s not true.
Re the kid selling sanitiser shots
He plans to use the £9 he made to buy a kebab, she added.
Wouldn't he be better off selling kebabs?
Schools in Ireland closed. I fully expect us to do the same at some point, anchored around the Easter break. Doing it sooner looks like the right move, but I suspect that delaying any decision for a week or so more, maybe for good reasons around the predictions about spread in the UK, will be the action here, given the UK gov actions so far.
There will be an announcement later today, everyone in work has heard from their Nans's Sisters, hairdresser that they're going to close from next Friday the 20th not tomorrow. I don't really know why other than it's 'neat' I suppose to run them straight into Easter?
Well that and to stop every screaming Karen from panic buying everything in sight I suppose.
Childcare? That'll be me then, 2 bored kids of incompatible ages annoying me because they're bored. Still I'm going to take my work PC home, they said I was mad speccing a Work PC with a gaming GPU, I'm going to play through GTA again I think.
Landed in Norway this morning and the PM just announced school closures
They are currently No 3 with most infection rate per capita!
OSLO — Norway will announce the closure of all kindergartens and schools to curb the spread of the coronavirus, following a similar step by neighboring Denmark, news agency NTB reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources.
Since Norway’s first case of the virus was confirmed on Feb. 26, the total number of infected people had risen to 621 as of Wednesday, including one at an offshore oilfield.