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Eradication is not on any agenda. This is here for the long term. It is the fifth endemic coronavirus. People will go on skiing holidays again next year too…
It seemed plausible as described. Maybe not ridding the nation of it but bringing it to the point of having to deal with flare ups. There was very much an emphasis on the relative success of the asian approach. If it is a case of no overseas travel and being able to hold things under control with effective track and trace - that would be worth doing?
Although it does seem that ship might have sailed in the current round of restrictions.
Antibody yields are in the tonne amounts! Say 3g per person per year – 15% of 66M vulnerable – 30 tonnes. Of protein! Vaccines had better do something – we need those human bioreactors.
I agree that if we are allowed to travel next year, we shouldn’t. And certainly not without enforced quarantine
I think there are a few ways to look at this. If people don't travel a whole lot of people will be left unemployed which isn't good. You can only control yourself (and maybe any potential family members) so go on holiday stay safe and isolate on your return. Chances are you could go on holiday somewhere with a lower Covid rate than here which is what my partner did this year. Also with a decent track, trace and testing system set up people should be able to live a "normal" life.
I feel like now we are getting back into lockdown judging others actions is already starting again.
I was amazed the forum Covid police weren't all over this last week, but maybe exceptions are made for foreign cycling holidays, as opposed to people driving half an hour to ride their bike somewhere it's a bit quieter.
There was very much an emphasis on the relative success of the asian approach. If it is a case of no overseas travel and being able to hold things under control with effective track and trace – that would be worth doing?
Keep it down to manageable levels, just like influenza. Since the controls for the first help the second.
I try hard not to judge others - even on lockdownsceptics. You have to see all sides to an argument. Even though some of the arguments are jus plain nuts - "Great Reset", "5G", "Virus never been isolated"...(I ignore those). There was one point on paying MPs 20% less due to furlough. Then I thought, well if we're all in it together, why not just add 20% onto PAYE for a month? Unpopular but universal suffering. I'd pay it btw.
There was outrage in my village over the weekend as some decided to have 'one final send off', so a couple of big house parties all on it.
They think that the government are out to get them and stop them having fun. On Nextdoor the comments the following day were up there with Mumsnet!! Some parents are saying that they did it for the kids 'mental health', but we all really know they did it because they just wanted to get pissed with their mates!
I'm all for independent thought, but being reckless like that is exactly why we're in this positin...the amount of people ive seen on Instagram having parties, mixing in busy bars it astounds me as too how selfish and thoughtless people are.
You can only control yourself (and maybe any potential family members) so go on holiday stay safe and isolate on your return
I hadn't meant to sound quite so preachy. You make some good points. The problem is, people weren't doing the responsible thing and isolating on their return, and there was nothing approaching a halfway decent track, trace and isolate measures in force. The thing I could control was just not risking it.
If we had got on top of the virus in the UK, we might not now need a full lockdown and the government may have only had to pay to mothball the travel industry for 12 months rather than most of the economy for 12 months. As TiRed says, there is no good option.
Obviously, the morons in government chose to do none of the effective options.
Brexit will have put paid to any quick cheap easy European getaways anyway.
Plan was 3 weeks touring round with the bike around July/August and meet up with other riding mates for a week in the PDS area then a trip to the Belgian GP in September, started making plans 2 years ago. The way things are going I doubt even 2022 will be viable!
Well if the attitudes of the few on here are reflected in the general public, then you won’t be able to travel abroad at all.
There will be no Airlines left to fly you !!!
Unpopular but universal suffering. I’d pay it btw
The easiest and fairest way is to print money rather than tax. It's inflationary but arguably the fairest. However, print too much and it'll be rapidly withdrawn from the economy rather than propping up a faltering cirular flow of income. Printing more than can be spent by the recipients on goods and services is counter productive.
Yup, but then there's been a decent chunk of this year where borrowing was actually cheaper than taxing people (even disregarding the impact on the economy, ie people spending instead of being taxed, it was outright cheaper, purely for admin reasons). And with inflation so low, it's daft not to print money. I mean, fiscally indefensible and financially incompetent.
This was on the local news this evening:
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/university/colleges/mds/news/2020/11/covid-moss-cellular-immunity.aspx
Well if the attitudes of the few on here are reflected in the general public, then you won’t be able to travel abroad at all.
There will be no Airlines left to fly you !!!
My sister-in-law works for Tui and its looking very bad for them right now!
Does anyone have a link to the preprint of the tcell paper?
They say that tcell response protects from waning antibody response, but interesting to see the levels
Possibly daft question before I call my doc for advice...
I read somewhere that folks on low dose steroid treatments have lower immune systems. Would that include Beclometasone which I use for asthma (the brown inhaler) ?
I think it makes a minor difference to my symptoms, but not enough that I'll continue to take it if it weakens the immune system.
Nhs says folks that take low dose steroids are at moderate risk here.. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk/whos-at-higher-risk-from-coronavirus/
Anyone watching ITV news at the moment, in a hospital in Blackburn.
Terrifying.
I read somewhere that folks on low dose steroid treatments have lower immune systems. Would that include Beclometasone which I use for asthma (the brown inhaler) ?
I think it makes a minor difference to my symptoms, but not enough that I’ll continue to take it if it weakens the immune system.
Nhs says folks that take low dose steroids are at moderate risk here.. https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk/whos-at-higher-risk-from-coronavirus//blockquote >
Inhaled corticosteroids don't tend to weaken the immune system - taking oral steroids such as prednisolone frequently is more of a potential problem.
Asthma - or at least, more severe, poorly controlled asthma - is considered a risk factor for poor outcome from Covid. That's as much to do with having a compromised respiratory system as the drugs you might be taking.
But you needed to be on a big dose of corticosteroids/COPD meds or have received three courses of oral steroids in the past year to be considered extremely vulnerable. I got the 'extremely vulnerable' classification because of my drug cocktail, even though my asthma is relatively well controlled. My GP now reckons I am only at 'moderate' risk.
The outcomes for moderate asthmatics generally aren't too bad compared with non-asthmatics of similar age.
TL;DR If you are considering discontinuing your inhaled corticosteroid, don't without talking to your GP. It's unlikely to be suppressing your immune system, and uncontrolled asthma is likely to be worse in terms of outcome.
Cheers for info MH, I'll ask the doc. Asthma is considered moderate risk on its own so I was thinking it's a bit of a catch 22. I'm defo classed as mild to moderate in the asthma stakes. It's enough to notice, but not enough to cause me issues unless I'm on the bike, in which case I use to just use the blue inhaler.
Who fancies being at Wetherspoons at kicking out time on Wednesday after the 99p pints are finished and we go into lockdown?
Poopscoop
Full MemberAnyone watching ITV news at the moment, in a hospital in Blackburn.
Terrifying.
One of the docs that was looking after my mum mentioned that they're under more stress than they expected this time round, because while they have less patients at that hospital than in the first wave, they have some better treatments, meaning that less of them are dying. But about the same number are remaining very ill, and it takes longer for someone to recover and be discharged than it did for them to just die, so they've had to expand the ward capacity.
I've often said that the worst thing the NHS can do for its own interests is save a life, but, this is a bit too pointed.
Seems to me that 'spoons are being pragmatic by turning beer stocks into cash; if I had a pub I would do the same.
It's either that or pour it away.
There will be plenty of other pubs doing the same from opening time Tuesday through until 10pm Wednesday.
So long as landlords comply with covid regs and ensure their punters do the same on the premises I don't see a problem; once punters leave the premises they're of no concern to the licencee and their behaviour becomes someone else's problem - that's how it's always been.
So long as landlords comply with covid regs and ensure their punters do the same on the premises I don’t see a problem
So you've not been past a spoons recently then!??
I think most pubs are probably fine as you say, but certainly I reckon the chances of being infected in my town centre spoons is far higher than most other places..
That said, last time I was in there last year you could have probably picked up something far nastier than covid ...place was grim..
There are 2 in Lincoln; drive past one regularly and the other is next to the uni campus so aimed at a very specific demographic - which I'm not part of.
If they say their pubs are covid secure and no-one complains and they don't receive a public health visit/inspection I would say that's the end of it.
I'm not saying their standards or punters' behaviour are acceptable but without a complaint or evidence to the contrary we should probably suspend belief and assume they are.
Asthma – or at least, more severe, poorly controlled asthma – is considered a risk factor for poor outcome from Covid. That’s as much to do with having a compromised respiratory system as the drugs you might be taking.
It’s a bit of a surprise, but one of the effects of COVID19 is lymphopenia which depletes white blood cells. This may actually be protective against severe Covid. One of my sonsuktant colleagues treating severe asthma patients said their symptoms tended to improve slightly. My hands got better (psoriasis) for the same reason and have done a couple more times since infection when the rest of me went south.
Inhaled steroids have a small increased risk of bacterial pneumonia due to local lung immunosuppressive effects. This effect is noted in COPD trials. They have no systemic effects as exposures are extremely low unless you are taking some hiv drugs (ritonavir) when they don’t.
So long as landlords comply with covid regs and ensure their punters do the same on the premises I don’t see a problem
Maybe Wetherspoons are different where you live or I'm just having a bad day, but I would genuinely fear violence from a combo of the owner's loudly stated views, the clientele, start of new #scamdemic lockdown, even cheaper booze.
Liverpool to pilot city-wide Covid-19 testing
Interesting one - will the false positives outweigh the benefit of identifying more people?
Village pubs around us are doing £2 a pint to clear stocks, why wouldn't they?
Maybe Wetherspoons are different where you live or I’m just having a bad day, but I would genuinely fear violence from a combo of the owner’s loudly stated views, the clientele, start of new #scamdemic lockdown, even cheaper booze.
My nearest 'Spoons is on the main drag in our former mining/iron, blue collar, heartland of the BNP rundown town. It has the stereotypical clientele. I have no worries about violence from there, though I suspect social distancing is tricky.
The more "aspirational" pubs and "wine bars" around it though, now those I avoid!
Village pubs around us are doing £2 a pint to clear stocks, why wouldn’t they?
Cos it encourages excess drinking and hence irresponsible behaviour. Sooner people stop behaving like children sooner we’ll get out of this mess.
Interesting one – will the false positives outweigh the benefit of identifying more people?
The pont is that it would capture a very large proportion of infected people and a small proportion of uninfected (even if the absolute numbers of both could be material eg 99% of 5% infected and 1% of 95% false +be (made up numbers) So if the intent is to stop the spread by making sure you capture the majority of the infected then it is a sensible measure even if number was inflated by false +ve and reduced by false -ve
But as an aside, does anyone know what the false -ve and false -ve rates are?
Thinking about it - how do we know there are false positives or can asses the false positive rate if the disease is asymptomatic in a significant proportion of the population.
Even if you took two tests and one was +ve and one was -ve you would not know which test was wrong.
Also no way of knowing whether the test is inaccurate in the real world due to an issue with the test, user error or just a borderline level of pathogen.
No point doing mass testing ‘till we are prepared to fund people isolating. If you are young, feel fit & healthy, but living pay day to pay day, you will try and avoid self isolating to avoid being broke.
If you are young, feel fit & healthy, but living pay day to pay day, you will try and avoid self isolating
Mainly by not getting tested. Even with my families comfortable salaried life it was quite a decision to go for testing and start isolating. If we relied on going to work to pay the rent and bills and food I expect we might have not done it.
No point doing mass testing ‘till we are prepared to fund people isolating. If you are young, feel fit & healthy, but living pay day to pay day, you will try and avoid self isolating to avoid being broke.
A point that experts/advisors have been making a lot in interviews the last couple of days. Seems to be a view that those not isolating are a big factor in transmission, though one of the interviews I heard did found like she was trying to deflect blame from track and trace itself.
Some very interesting points in this interview and I'd be interested in the opinion of our resident experts. I'm no expert but I am a scientist at heart and learned to consider things critically and with evidence whilst at University and I still feel that we have jumped the gun with this lockdown.
For me the most salient points are around testing sensitivity and how we run our NHS to capacity in normal winters. I know we used to hear about the NHS being overloaded every winter in normal years but of course the Tories can't admit that is the real problem and deal with that proactively.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=share&v=W0vL0281s5c
Youngest daughter reported weatherspoons in local town was worse than new years eve after lockdown#1, covid secure my arse. These few days of crazy shopping & socialising will just cause another spike in cases that any fool (looking at you Johnson) could have predicted.
Track & trace only works with relatively low infection rates & high levels of and if necessary enforced, compliance.
and how we run our NHS to capacity in normal winters. I know we used to hear about the NHS being overloaded every winter in normal years but of course the Tories can’t admit that is the real problem and deal with that proactively.
We have something like half the hospital beds per head of population compared to France, and only a third of Germany's number?
Underfunding public services for the last 11 years has left us in no fit state to cope with a bad flu year, let alone Covid. The fundamental duty of a government should be to protect the population and it's failed completely and consistently. Lockdown is required precisely for that reason (amongst others)
how we run our NHS to capacity in normal winters
Sadly, we can’t fix that this winter though. Let’s hope people remember this the other side of this pandemic.
That guy has been doing a weird combination of talking against all interventions when they come in… but then claiming afterwards that because of those interventions working to a certain extent (despite him saying they shouldn’t be introduced before they were) we shouldn’t bring in any new interventions. Cake and eat it. He’s been one of the “I want to count the dead before we act to prevent deaths” people all through this. It may well be scientifically sound to wait for more data, more evidence… but by then you have a much bigger problem to deal with.
The fundamental duty of a government should be to protect the population and it’s failed completely and consistently.
+1 a global pandemic has been on the cards for some good few years now, yet we seem to have no plan for stockpile of ppe or even procurement of it and don't try and run the NHS on a just in time supermarket model 😡
The words from the Welsh first minister were thought provoking. Something along the lines of: Don't ask what you 'can do', ask what you 'should do'.
Interestingly a close relative who lives in Switzerland (where their case numbers have been extremely low), says that since opening borders during the summer, numbers have risen to high levels.
My relative has enjoyed an almost normal life. Only now are they having to change their lifestyle.
Switzerland has a tiny population and a very good (expensive) health system, but even that will be put under strain soon.
No matter how well staffed and equipped hospitals are… it doesn’t stop people catching a novel virus in huge numbers, at huge cost to many of them and to society… public health measures do. And at this stage, that means social distancing to stop the spread of the virus while we develop other tools.
The words from the Welsh first minister were thought provoking. Something along the lines of: Don’t ask what you ‘can do’, ask what you ‘should do’.
You mean like "individuals step up and take responsibility"? It'll never catch on.
Liverpool to pilot city-wide Covid-19 testing
Interesting one – will the false positives outweigh the benefit of identifying more people?
I feel like this is huge news. We are not at the level of China (testing 9m people in one go) but its a step forwards, lets just hope track and trace can cope with the amount of calls. I remember a stat saying something like 40% of people in Vo Italy were asymptomatic! Partner is convinced im one of those asymptomatic people and gave it to her way back in March. I feel like not enough is done to explaine to people how many of us could be asymptomatic.
I need a bit of help with the new lockdown regulations, and in particular this bit from this BBC explainer link:
Clinically vulnerable advised not to go to work if they are unable to work from home
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518
I can't find this in the official guidance, or anywhere else, except on this BBC article.
To me, it sounds like shielding, which BJ also said was not coming back.
I'd really love if someone knew where the BBC have got this from and if its true.
For context, I was a shielder.
I was diagnosed with cancer back in April this year, started chemotherapy straight away, and have been isolating since.
On the advice of the oncologist, I've had to isolate from the family, so I've moved into my little girl's room and she's moved into the boys room with him.
Before the summer ( first lockdown) I was working from home, marking work online, for the school I work at. The school have been absolutely brilliant with me but there's no homeworking this time.
I'm currently off sick recovering from a cancer surgery. Still isolating, still clinically vulnerable. Technically, the post-operation recovery period ends this week. And that means back into school just as lockdown 2 starts.
I've an oncologist consultation later today for scan and test results and next steps
It would be great if anyone knew where the BBC got that advice as it may just help me get paid if I'm told to stay off.
Thank you in advance.
Here?;
There is a further group of people who are defined, also on medical grounds, as clinically extremely vulnerable to coronavirus – that is, people with specific serious health conditions. Over this period, we are advising the CEV to work from home. If you cannot work from home, you are advised not to go to work and may be eligible for Statutory Sick Pay (SSP) or Employment Support Allowance (ESA). You are encouraged to stay at home as much as possible, but are encouraged to go outside for exercise. The full new guidance will be published on Monday 2 November and the Government will write to everybody who is clinically extremely vulnerable to set out detailed advice while the new restrictions are in place.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#stay-at-home
Thanks kilo.
That's clearly the right part of the right government guidelines.
Guess I was just hoping for a bit more than "may be eligible for ssp or ESA."
Just have to go with whatever the doc says later.
the fact that Spoons have dropped the price of beer to 99p/pint is just going to make it worse! Utter madness. As if the ****s need any more encouragement. Just thankful I don't know anyone who would go to one 😃Youngest daughter reported weatherspoons in local town was worse than new years eve after lockdown#1, covid secure my arse. These few days of crazy shopping & socialising will just cause another spike in cases
Guess I was just hoping for a bit more than “may be eligible for ssp or ESA.”
I really hope that the government roll back on that this week... not supporting people who need to shield this winter has to be very unpopular with Tory MPs, and their supporters... no? That's not a party political point... I can't imagine anyone thinking that it's the right move.
I still feel that we have jumped the gun with this lockdown.
Really? How so? It's pretty straight forward in my view. An exponentially rising number of infected will lead to an exponential rise in hospital admissions. Too many infected, too many critically ill, hospital is unable to go about normal business, more people die from covid, and more people die from other things that are otherwise treatable. If you can kick the can further down the road the likelihood of effective treatments and prevention increases, less people die, more people left to pick up the pieces.
Yours is certainly 'a' view. In the media it's largely put forward by Tory back benchers saying it will cause the economy to tank. I'll just point out that many of these are the same backbenchers who are proponents of Brexit. Which will cause the economy to tank. Go figure.
I’m no expert
You could have stopped there.
ANyone listening to Whitty and Valence in the Select Committee? Where are they going with this questioning?
grum
Free Member
I’m no expertYou could have stopped there.
Yes congrats you scored in an open goal there. Very clever but doesn't really add anything of interest to the conversation does it. What's your expertise? I'm open minded about the two sides of this debate and not willing to belittle either side but will listen to people who have scientific training and expertise so I'd like to hear Tired thoughts on the interview and particularly the sensitivity of the test and how this could be overwhelming the test and trace system unnecessarily.
I don't think that this "lockdown" is going to be very locked.
BMC say that we can still travel to climbing and walking, C+RT say that we can still paddle. I guess we can travel to biking then.
No pubs or shops, just have to spend our weekend biking, walking and paddling. No change for me then.
No point doing mass testing ‘till we are prepared to fund people isolating. If you are young, feel fit & healthy, but living pay day to pay day, you will try and avoid self isolating to avoid being broke.
This is vastly overlooked IMO.
I suspect a lot of people haven't downloaded the app and are giving false contact details when asked for this very reason. And then, particularly if the're asymptomatic, are then spreading it to others.
I don’t think that this “lockdown” is going to be very locked.
BMC say that we can still travel to climbing and walking, C+RT say that we can still paddle. I guess we can travel to biking then.
yeh, this I don't get. I thought I sorta understood the rules. now its like lockdown, only essential travel but you can still drive somewhere to exercise. But to be fair transmission in the outside seems really low. Im just clueless to how the rules do and do not work.
No point doing mass testing ‘till we are prepared to fund people isolating. If you are young, feel fit & healthy, but living payday to payday, you will try and avoid self isolating to avoid being broke.
Fear not. The government has cleverly picked an affluent area of the country to try mass testing, where zero-hours contracts and agency work are unheard of, most people are in secure, highly-paid professions with enough savings to ensure self-isolating will probably just be like a nice holiday.
They've clearly thought this through.
I'll predict a take-up rate for testing at 20%-30%, tops
Most people just can't afford to risk a positive test
Nice visualization of cases in the US
Myti, Why do you think we've jumped the gun with the lockdown now?
Im just clueless to how the rules do and do not work.
Not that they're really being enforced anyway. A few parties broken up and some attention-gathering headlines of £10k fines presumably to put people off doing similar but no way of enforcing isolation, checking on what is and isn't "essential" travel, the app largely didn't work (gosh, I *am* surprised...) and we're not far off March/April situation except a huge amount of money has been wasted in between that.
Best of luck to you guys in England going into your lock-down, ours ends on Monday, numbers seem to be falling, but it's too early to say whether it's more than just a statistical anomaly, either way the upside for us in Wales is that from Monday we're pretty much going back to the sort of restrictions we had in summer, well it seems that way to me.
I generally find this tread on the pessimistic side, probably with good reason, but I know some of us are fairly positive about vaccines coming towards the very end of development, and with lockdowns and the US election they're out of the headlines at the moment.
MHRA (who govern new drugs in the UK) have recently started an accelerated review of the AstraZeneca vaccine using live data from their phase 3 trials which are likely to conclude within weeks (the trial, not the review)
Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-vaccin-idUSKBN27H1BD
Based on recent findings in regards to antibodies and T-cells, I’d guess the vaccine will likely be effective for around 6 months, so it’s likely to be a annual vaccination as we do now with flu to get us through the peak months of Sept-Jan.
That's not to say that it's going to be some magic bullet to "Save Xmas" or anything like that, but we might see Healthcare workers being vaccinated at the very end of the year and the very vulnerable early next year, which will hopefully quicken the end of 'Covid Season' this winter and everything-crossed, mean we don't have a 3rd wave next Autumn, we may not even need to have restrictions in place.
I’d say that these first generation vaccines probably won’t be enough to eradicate it, even in the long run (years, not months) although it might well contribute to eradication if indeed that ever happens.
Bringing this back to The US Election, Pfizer who are trying to produce the US’s front running vaccine at the moment, are also in Phase 3, a few weeks behind the UK.
Source:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla
If the Pfizer vaccine makes in to an Advisory Committee it could make interesting viewing - it should be livecast from their website/youtube. These public hearings are one aspect of the US drug approval process I rather admire.
@myti I am a scientist and I can bet Ive done a lot more rt-PCRs than Hanegan!
and hes wrong about several things in that interview
here is the protocol for that test
its not a 20bp fragment, its a 100bp fragment that amplified, thats a big difference
RNA (what viruses store their genetic info as & use to hijack our cells to reproduce themselves) degrades very quickly, our bodies are chock full of RNASES (enzymes that degrade RNA for the very purpose of killing viruses) RNA has to be kept cold at all times or it will rapidly degrade outside of its natural environment (inside the packaging of the virus or in the host cell)
you would indeed have lots of 20 bp fragments from a dead virus floating around, but youll have far far less 100bp ones, most will have degraded beyond measureable amount (this is the bane of my research life)
and there is no hard cut off for the CT (the threshold that you call it positive or negative) , each run will vary slightly, based on the properties of the machine used (its a reaction that measures changes in a flourescent probe that binds specifically to the target sequence so the intensity of the laser & state of CCD camera that measure it will have variations)
in turn the reagents used will have variations, be from different manufacturers, slightly different concentrations of different component chemicals , different companies use varrying tehcnologies
UK lighthouse testing labs use various machines taken from research institutes & universities all over the country from different manufacturers & using different methodologies (they took ours, wed like them back!)
so theres no way he can say that ct value can be used to interpret load,- hes very wrong on that
its a bit wobbly & at low input levels theres some sort of Poisson (ask Tired about that) distribution of target, so its done in replicates of 3(or more) to average it out
especially as viral amount will be low before symptoms are strong (but we know you can still be very infectious) and after, when they can last for a while- thats where the worry about false positives lie & he has a point there BUT, IME (and Ive done even more detailed work on 1000s of RNA samples) its a much bigger problem having degraded RNA, especially when home testing kits (which make up bulk of tests run) are not easy to do (ive done it on my wife)
False negatives are MUCH more likely than false positives based on my work
to sum up Hanegan may have valid points but, he is either badly misinformed or deliberately lying about some basic aspects of the science
really frustrating to hear journos like Hartley-Brewer just repeat this guff unchecked because it agrees with her agenda
loum - I really hope your surgery went well and you get back to good health very soon.
Del. I think we should either have listened to our chosen government experts when they said do a 2 week circuit break or say we're not doing full lockdowns and stick to our guns with regional measures and with appropriate funding for those businesses. We are punishing areas with very low numbers. Just one example but West Sussex where I have family have had 3 cv deaths in the last 2 months. We should wait to see if the tier 3 measures work in the other areas. This faffing is the worst of both worlds. Terrible for businesses and peoples mental health.
Also I've been following Spain's numbers and they were well ahead of us on cases and deaths a month ago and are using regional measures still. Deaths there are not spiralling exponentially the 7 day average on the 1st of November was 170.
Yes there will be deaths as this second wave combines with seasonal aspects but i don't think assuming worst case scenario is the way forward.
Kimbers thank you for taking the time to explain that to me if only you had been available for interview of Mark Henegan.
We are punishing areas with very low numbers.
We should not talk about punishing. Otherwise, what do you mean, that people in areas with higher incidence should be punished? We could wait for the regional measures to play out, to have more numbers to reassure people that stricter measures are needed... but, you need to be aware that many of us have been under regional measures for months now... and the data really doesn't suggest that they are enough. We are a very connected country... especially as concerns hospital capacity.
No update on data today, have they found some more down the back of the sofa again?
Even the "low" areas have infection rates higher than the level we used to use to put countries on the quarantine list.
It's a relative concept.
Yeah I noticed that too a_a
*tin foil hat on* another huge spike in cases after the weekend lag so they're hoping to bury it later evening/convince some back bencher to say something stupid to distract attention?
397 deaths but cases seem to be stalled at around 20 000
Positive test cases stalled? Fingers crossed. But, I assume testing has stalled as well, yes? I think past a certain level of incidence, the testing capacity just can’t keep up, so we really can’t see the full picture. Next ONS results will be interesting. Again, fingers crossed.
Cant seem to see figures for hospital admissions.
Myti, numbers of admissions and capacity do not necessarily correlate. Just because a region has low numbers per head of population does not make it unreasonable to lockdown. Also numbers of beds does not necessarily correlate to numbers of operational beds. You still need staff.
+1 a global pandemic has been on the cards for some good few years now, yet we seem to have no plan for stockpile of ppe or even procurement of it and don’t try and run the NHS on a just in time supermarket model 😡
Public Health England were more worried about tacling obesity than preparing for a pandemic.
PHE spent £220 million on anti-obesity schemes in 2018-19, but just £89 million on tackling infectious diseases.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/public-health-england-a-predictable-failure/
More on the theme of crap maps, data Viz not being clear enough:
Del. Last Autumn 92% of hospital beds were full at this time of year. Instead of locking up our citizens and closing businesses I think we should be holding the government to account on this. If we can get this changed how many lives will that ultimately save in the years ahead.
Compulsory vaccination on the way…
I do hope so.
. If we can get this changed how many lives will that ultimately save in the years ahead.
None
We'll have deaths from unchecked Covid(forecast in the hundreds of thousands) deaths from people unable to get treated now because hospitals are full of unchecked Covid (maybe 40-50,000 this winter), and then ongoing deaths from long term issues arising from Covid (no one seems to be estimating, but I'm guessing a few tens of thousands a year for 10 years)
It's those first two short and medium term numbers which gave to be the priority.
Unless you are prepared to publicly state that your preference is to sacrifice the elderly and vulnerable, which is, if course, a valid opinion to have, but you need to be clear what your choice means.
Compulsory vaccination on the way…
It'll never happen.
No other vaccines are a legal requirement.
Instead of locking up our citizens and closing businesses
Curious to know how you would put in place enough beds to deal with an exponential spread of infection? And then enough care to deal with the long term effects.
The government need to be held to account (spoiler - they won't be) for their handouts of public money to their mates.