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i read one guy saying save your annual new car, holiday and home improvements
really feel for that man.
I think his point was maybe it would be a wiser place to put the money you might have saved by not going on holiday this year. It was a piece about hospital waiting times.
Boris and chums found, mistook the drier for a fridge no doubt.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-54760265
or the modern version which i believe is pronounced lattebulate – same but with milky coffee
That's the internet won for today!👏👏
This winter… always remember that the scale of the economic damage, the lives lost, and the effects on the mental health of the nation, is down to a political decision.
It's not even a decision which aimed for and will achieve a particular outcome. They are going to achieve all the downsides with none of the upsides. Mortality - higher, mental health damage - worse, lockdown - longer, economic damage in the prime trading period before Christmas - severe.
And yet again, they have failed to prevent the virus from breaching the 'ring of steel' around our care homes and running a scythe through the family members within.
It takes a special talent to fail to learn from a history which has happened within the same calendar year.
I'm trying not to conclude and remain an open book...but if the predicted tens of thousands deaths don't happen (hopefully) and we are still being told at Christmas this number of deaths is just around the corner in Jan, Feb etc...im switching off.
Let's hope so. I'm sure TiRed has a good handle on the latest, but I have seen only a moderate drop in the rate of deaths vs hospitalisations due to better treatment with dexamethasone etc, and that has been built in to the latest shock horror models.
So look at the current trend in hospitalisations - the deaths from those are pretty much baked in for the next few weeks. The virus is also shifting from the initial peak in mostly healthy, young people into the much more vulnerable populations of elderly and infirm, which is what will drive mortality over the winter.
Is it true…that last week only 2 people were admitted into hospital across the UK with Influenza? (Was in a BBC piece about fact checks)…is this normal because I would have guessed it might be in the hundreds if not thousands?
No idea on figures but let’s look at this logically. Flu season hasn’t started, flu is less infectious then covid 19, the precautions we are expected to take for cv19 will also help reduce other viruses especially respiratory, flu has a vaccine which I believe has been a large up take.
it still staggers me allow travelling into and out of the U.K. let alone across the U.K. Our town has been busy again this week with tourists as have hotspots been like a bank holiday. It’s a miserable October week not the summer.
What did we as a country do to deserve these ijits
Errr.... voted for them.
No idea on figures but let’s look at this logically. Flu season hasn’t started, flu is less infectious then covid 19, the precautions we are expected to take for cv19 will also help reduce other viruses especially respiratory, flu has a vaccine which I believe has been a large up take.
This also refers to 'confirmed cases', where influenza virus has been detected via lab testing, and I'd imagine that influenza surveillance and testing is taking somewhat of a back seat at the moment. Any person presenting with flu-like illness is probably taken down the Covid pathway at hospital, so the actual cause of their pneumonia is less likely to be attributed elsewhere.
Half term was crazy busy down here in E Sussex. Mostly outdoors, but it had the feel of people getting out before a lockdown.
It only takes a small percentage of people to change behaviour to have a noticeable effect.
Any person presenting with flu-like illness is probably taken down the Covid pathway at hospital, so the actual cause of their pneumonia is less likely to be attributed elsewhere.
Yes they are until test results come back for covid they are treat as suspected Covid.
Half term was crazy busy down here in E Sussex. Mostly outdoors, but it had the feel of people getting out before a lockdown.
Skipton had a suspicious number of young, extremely pissed, out-of-town pub crawlers last night (my wife reports). My take on that is that students from Leeds, anticipating Tier 3 status before the weekend, arranged to get on the train with their mates and head into Tier 1 instead. Oh, and they were all rat-arsed and staggering about by 7pm, suggesting that the human brain has found a way to circumvent the watertight plan of closing pubs an hour early.
Flagging restrictions up several days in advance is definitely the best policy, eh?
Just on BBC that Nicolas has said only essential travel from Scotland to England 😱
Makes sense...but will that account to a lot of covid admissions that could upon a test be an actual flu admission?
Surely universities need to move to remote and virtual learning as well as close down all student union activity. Saw a week or two ago the PHE data for Sheffield by age group. The spike in the 18-29 range was mountainous and blew the rest of the population rate of infection out of the water. The only reason it’s dropping I can assume is that they’ve all now had it. That in itself is fine, as they don’t invariably get really sick from it, but they do unfortunately go out on the piss in Broomhill and town, mix with older locals, who in turn then go for Sunday dinner with their parents or down the WMC (before they were closed). Classic example of stacking.
Flu surveillance is very much a matter of extrapolation from a relatively small amount of actual data - tests and reported symptoms - rather than the testing spree that is Covid surveillance. I'm sure when the dust settles we'll get a better idea of the interplay between flu and Covid cases - you would expect it to be a fairly light flu season due to the factors listed by Drac. Another thing to note is that they have rolled out flu vaccination to more groups this year, so hopefully that will take the edge off a bit more.
The only thing that matters in the end is the amount of space under the overall excess death curve. Much of that will be Covid, some of it flu, some of it people not seeking treatment for stuff because of covid, or exacerbations in mental health problems.
That in itself is fine, as they don’t invariably get really sick from it, but they do unfortunately go out on the piss in Broomhill and town, mix with older locals, who in turn then go for Sunday dinner with their parents or down the WMC (before they were closed).
That's happened already, hence the rise in cases in older groups.
Do we go for nine weeks to avoid another return to national restrictions? A block of six and another block of six or more late winter? Four and go for a bigger block after?
I don't do the recommendations bit, I merely provide the options on the menu. None of the dishes look good. It does feel like we missed an opportunity by holding out to Christmas though.
they’ve condemned others like me who now know for sure there is no chance they will see their loved one ever again
FFJA, I know things appear grave, but this is still quite a short period of time in the scheme of things. I've always said 18 months for any real semblance of normality. In the next 6-8 months we will see some form of vaccine and treatments that will lower the rate of hospitalizations and deaths - they may even provide some immunity.
I'm still optimistic that with appropriate testing (not what we have now), short but firm isolation, treatments and protection of the vulnerable, SARS-CoV2 can be rendered influenza-like. And we've managed that for a very long time. Imagine managing the first influenza wave - how did that look in 1918? We're winning, but it doesn't feel like it sometimes.
Makes sense…but will that account to a lot of covid admissions that could upon a test be an actual flu admission?
I believe figures are adjust if they come back as negative for CV19, Tired may know more, they don’t test for flu it’s usually based on diagnosis.
The only reason it’s dropping I can assume is that they’ve all now had it.
You absolutely should not assume that.
I’m struggling to find the data, but it seems the England figures are still climbing, but Scotland maybe slowing, NI possibly slowing, (some) of Wales slowing…
TiRed care to comment?
If the admissions data is to be believed NI really hit the buffers this week. Sometimes the data gets updated, but some signs of a signal there. Wales is hard to interpret because admissions count anyone suspected of COVID19, and at the moment, that is just about everyone who looks a bit, well, hospitally.
Nice tail off in NI data this week in yellow
If the average age of death is 82? And we have a vaccine...could we not just vaccinate the over 70's? And invest in our hospitals (as opposed to T&T and killing the economy? Or am I an idiot?
That “if” comes much later. Let’s deal with now. In fact, this has been Johnson’s MO all along… when tasked with horrible choices right now, talk about what might be possible in the future.
Asda is already shutting some stuff off from sale in their supermarket aisles, like bottles of alcohol on the end of aisles.
Sefton it's just that an average. What's more important is to look at number of life years lost. There will be many who only had a short life expectancy but for those vast numbers will have lost 10, 20 even 30 years of life. Regarding investing in hospitals the excess pressure caused by covid would require such vast increases in ITU and acute care recruitment it would take years to staff them and by then this may all be a nightmare of the past. We have (doctors) all been informed we may be reallocated if necessary although thankfully that didn't happen to me ladt time. But as TiRED said if we can hold out until a much better treatment regime or effective vaccine is available we can save huge numbers of lives that after all are our loved ones. Also if the NHS is overwhelmed then normal acute care gets compromised leading to increased mortality from all causes.
Just on BBC that Nicolas has said only essential travel from Scotland to England 😱
Enforceable how? which loopholes? I'd love us to go the French route of permission to travel required, but no chance these wet blankets will do that.
If the admissions data is to be believed NI really hit the buffers this week.
That's a bit of good news. But then, they closed schools as well, which is what I believe is necessary to make a month's lockdown work properly.
If we could skip ahead several years, the mostly widely held view is the virus will still be around - as what's known as an endemic infection.
But that is not to say life will be the same as it is now. We should have reached a new relationship with the virus where it is significantly less disruptive to our lives. This follows the pattern of previous pandemics.
A vaccine or multiple infections across a lifetime may give enough immunity to stop the virus being as deadly.
"This will settle down over decades," says Prof Mark Woolhouse, from the University of Edinburgh. "The problem is what happens over those decades. I don't see a route that isn't painful in one way or another."
Are we really talking five or ten years before were back to how we were?
yeah, I guess I just worry in trying to do all this we just create another set of issues which might be more devastating...guess there's no ideal way to play it?! Was simply wondering if it was as simple as the average age is over 80...then what percentage of that age category are in care or like accommodation...which could be slightly easier to protect. Im probably wrong but feels like a simpler task to protect this narrower demographic that trying to protect and manage everyone? Appologies if this has been discussed and debunked countless times on this thread
Press conference at 4 today.........
I’m trying not to conclude and remain an open book…but if the predicted tens of thousands deaths don’t happen (hopefully) and we are still being told at Christmas this number of deaths is just around the corner in Jan, Feb etc…im switching off.
Sorry, but I don't follow that reasoning. Currently we're at about 2k deaths this week, a figure which is doubling every week or so. So we are definitively going to see at least 20k extra deaths without further doubling (given the lag in infections to death). If we could stop this now, which the govt is choosing not to do. the headline worst case deaths of what, 85000 is if we don't impose a lockdown. And that does still leave you after XMAS staring further rises in the face. But they'd be more significant than if you have a lockdown now.
So the basic choices to govt, EXACTLY as in March;
1. Lock down hard and early to suppress and minimise deaths but with wider societal impact, most of which is in your power to support and mitigate.
2. Dither then eventually have a disjointed approach, allow tens of thousands to die, provide limited support to save money.
3. Abandon any pretence of suppression, promote personal responsibility, let it rip.
Terrifyingly, I reckon there's a chance that option 3 is going to be in play next year.
I’m not sure this government will worry about hammering home number 3. The fact is there’s no easy route. They now have to protect jobs, the economy and mental well-being whilst trying to protect the vulnerable. I would say that the masses want to keep their jobs and protect the economy and perhaps won’t stand for a draconian lock down without acknowledging any sort of plan.
5pm press conference.
So when will the national lockdown kick in?
8pm tonight so they kick me out of the pub?
Midnight tonight so that my hastily booked lunch tomorrow is cancelled?
Monday to give time for hospitality to get rid of any produce they have leftover?
Mid next week to give people time to prepare?
Where’s your money?
Where’s your money?
Under the mattress, ready for some black market bog roll.
What's the furlough likely to be if we're locked down until Christmas?
What’s the furlough likely to be if we’re locked down until Christmas?
Potentially wont be one, furlough has ended.
My prediction:
Back into lockdown Monday so that everyone can pile into the pub tomorrow.
Initial 3 weeks but most likely run until christmas.
No extension of furlough initially but they will fold after a massive uproar.
Schools and Uni's stay open.
A shit 3-word slogan.
Are we really talking five or ten years before were back to how we were?
Maybe not 10 years, but TiRed on here and other people who actually know about this stuff have been talking at least 18 months since all this began.
Expect 2021 to be not much better, then you might be pleasantly surprised.
I’m not sure this government will worry about hammering home number 3.
Bloody hope not, but there were hints of this initially and they haven't covered themselves in glory so far.
The fact is there’s no easy route. They now have to protect jobs, the economy and mental well-being whilst trying to protect the vulnerable.
Agreed, it's an extremely difficult balance. But if you look back at, say, Sage advice from mid September, it seems clear that the govt is erring on the side of the economy rather than the vulnerable.
I would say that the masses want to keep their jobs and protect the economy and perhaps won’t stand for a draconian lock down without acknowledging any sort of plan.
I would disagree at this point - I think the majority will support limited lockdown. I think they've been remiss in not reinforcing the fact that this IS the plan. Cyclical lockdowns around tightening/loosening restrictions. All of which should be informed by prior choices. Designed to balance economy and public health, until we get closer to a vaccine. Which might give you a shot at protecting the vulnerable. Frankly, even if there is never a vaccine, I can't see a better approach.
My suspicion is that things should be improving by midsummer. The vaccine ramp up plans will be putting out very high numbers by may or so. Before that the dose numbers won't be enough to make a difference.
Lockdown from Wednesday. Starting at 3 weeks, but will take 6-8 weeks to show enough effects.
Schools and unis told to try and stay open. Suspect that after a week or two most schools will switch to at least some remote learning, staying open for key workers and vulnerable again, and unis will try and move students back home between now and Christmas break.
Furlough is the only way it can happen.
sefton
Free MemberIf the average age of death is 82? And we have a vaccine…could we not just vaccinate the over 70’s?
"If we have a vaccine" we vaccinate everyone, there's no reason to stop at "over 70s". Scarcity is an issue of course but unless it's something really exotic or shortlived could be overcome.
Vaccine changes everything, but we can't plan for having one, and even if we were 100% guaranteed to have an effective one which we could give to 100% of people in a year, we still couldn't wait, is the issue.
it seems clear that the govt is erring on the side of the economy rather than the vulnerable
We’re all for saving the “economy”, and especially jobs and incomes, but the government keeps failing to do that. It keeps thinking that lack of government action is what will get our economy through this pandemic and out the other side in a good state… they are wrong… and every time they belatedly admit that, wake up, and eventually act in a late and incompetent fashion, they are hitting our economy, our businesses, our jobs, our wellbeing. Dither, delay and damage the economy. Again.
Good point Kelvin - so decisive action can be more economically painful in the short term but slow action drags the damage out for longer. Perhaps I should have written "appearing to act on the side of the economy"?
it seems clear that the govt is erring on the side of the economy rather than the vulnerable
We've just had a direct demonstration about how the government's strategy is failing (again). They were given the option of local restrictions plus short lockdowns, but felt that was too damaging to the economy, so rejected the advice. Now we are not only filling our hospitals to the brim, but staring down the barrel of a much longer, tougher lockdown, which, given that it falls in November/December rather than October/November, will be far more damaging to high street retail spend in the run-up to Christmas.
Achieving the worst of all worlds takes precision.
So, allegedly.....
4 week lockdown in England from 1 second past midnight on Thursday.
Pubs and Restaurants to close....takeaway allowed.
No overnight stays away from home allowed unless for work.
No mixing of households indoors.
Education to stay open.
From December 2nd, Tier 1 - 3 will be reintroduced depending on how your local area is doing.
That's from Peston's twitter.....it's more detailed than my summary though!
“If we have a vaccine” we vaccinate everyone, there’s no reason to stop at “over 70s”. Scarcity is an issue of course but unless it’s something really exotic or shortlived could be overcome.
From everything I've read there is no plan to vaccinate everyone. If you are under 50 without known health issues and and not in nhs or healthcare you ain't getting a dose
I've already voice my feelings on this earlier in thread but struggling to understand rational.
If it doesn't stop you getting it, only reduces symptoms then I can kind of understand why you wouldn't give it to folk whom would get mild symptoms. But If that's the case why give it to healthcare workers? It's either a dangerous desease for healthy folks or it's not. And it clearly is given the stories of long covid.
And if it prevents transmission surely it's an absolute no brainer everyone gets a dose to drive the r number down. Not just health care workers to prevent them spreading amongst the vunerable.
It goes without saying that vunerable groups, health care workers, the elderly etc should absolutely all be in line for it before a healthy young adult however
So... unrestricted mixing and “normal” life means doubling of cases every 9 days or so, right?
If that is the case, can someone explain to me exactly why the fsck the lockdown is coming into effect in another 5 days? Why is here a delay? Why not do it from tonight?
If that is the case, can someone explain to me exactly why the fsck the lockdown is coming into effect in another 5 days?
We haven’t been given a day yet but it’s so business and individuals can make plans.
Anything mentioned on"shielding"?
From everything I’ve read there is no plan to vaccinate everyone.
Correct as that’s not how vaccines work, the idea is vaccinate a high percentage which helps reduce the risk of spread.
From everything I’ve read there is no plan to vaccinate everyone. If you are under 50 without known health issues and and not in nhs or healthcare you ain’t getting a dose
I’m sure I read that the science is that you’re meant to vaccinate the spreader first so they stop infecting people rather than the vulnerable who may or may not catch it.
Indeed … carehome workers, other professional carers and medical staff first … then the vulnerable and their households. But this is “tomorrow’s problem”… and it’s a much better problem than today’s problem… and that is that stricter social distancing measures are being introduced… late… and it could well be a tall ask to get the public to go along with them, given how things are being handled by the… er… let’s avoid a fruitier word… “government”.
Considering the prevalence of long covid, I hope the plan to vaccinate certain groups is only the initial plan.
We haven’t been given a day yet but it’s so business and individuals can make plans.
Thursday is being reported, following a Parliamentary vote
The thing about letting it run through the general population is that that is causing a huge logistics issue for the general running of society.
I get a regular email from Northern Rail operations and the latest one was mainly a description of how difficult it is to run services when there’s a constant proportion of your staff off sick (although not evenly distributed around the service - meaning that some ticket offices have had to close briefly). The people not available to work (sick or required to self-isolate) means that it’s harder to run the required training to keep everyone’s skills up to date - all the more so because staff have to be organised into training bubbles. I rarely feel sorry for Northern but it sounds complicated and difficult.
Similarly, my neighbour works at a north Manchester hospital which can’t admit new patients. It’s not full, it’s just that wards are constantly being closed for deep cleaning whenever someone turns out to be covid positive. The logistics burden is massive (and can’t be avoided - you can’t ignore it just like you couldn’t ignore MRSA and other superbugs that were acquired within a hospital setting).
Reports are coming through that the university and teacher's unions have dropped a bombshell demand that all teaching moves online if any national lockdown is pout in place, hence why the press conference is delayed.
4pm
5pm
6pm?
Depends when Boris is sober. I'm going to watch the F1 qualy highlights then catch up afterwards.
delayed until 6:30
I’ll take 7pm in the sweepstake.
I’m sure they have a grip on things.
The fridge has a time lock.
That's going to annoy the masses, might affect strictly
Delay, dither, disappear.
Would we even be surprised if some photographer snapped him leaving by the back door in false glasses and moustache. 😂
He is having to figure out guidlines that let him go and visit his mistress
4pm
5pm6pm?
Dither and delay
Dither, delay, latibulate.
EDIT: okay, the version with full alliteration is better, I just wanted to give the Dent a nod.
Shower. Of. Shit!
Well C4 News were going to delay the F1 for the presser but they've got fed up and just said they'll tell us more tomorrow evening 😂
Will Boris have appeared by then?
I'd rather the entire government left by the back door in body bags, kinda apt given the sheer incompetence that has caused the utterly needless deaths of tens of thousands.
Could be bigger changes to furlough to make restrictions work. Or Boris has buckled under a berating from the back bench and another policy swerve is on the go.
FFS I’ve just been looking at our local area maps and realised that they are green up to 100 cases per 100,000. Making that look like it’s perfectly ok. It’s a comfortable blue up 400 / 100,000.
Look at the map for Germany - areas are red when cases go over 50 per 100,000. It’s like we’ve only created a sense of urgency when we’re already knee deep in ordure.
Where my family lives it went over 50 cases per 100,000 and everything non-essential will be shut as of Monday (no pubs, no restaurants, no ‘just serve a plate of chips with that pint and it’ll banish covid). I’m not sure whether it’s enough - are they behind us on the same curve or tracking for their second wave to be similarly less severe than ours as their first one was - but I guess it will be instructive.
Everyday there are fifty to a hundred thousand more people who will be asking themselves why they need to do all this lockdown stuff.
Correct as that’s not how vaccines work, the idea is vaccinate a high percentage which helps reduce the risk of spread.
So if the idea is to vaccinate to reduce the spread then why not do everyone if they want it, like some other countries are planning to do? What am I missing?
My mum is in high risk category. She doesn't have a carer, the person she is by far most likely to get it from just now and in near future is me. And if no-one under 50 gets a a vacine then realistically transmission rates will continue to be high amongst that demographic in future, and inevitably I'll get it at some point. Unless you are telling me that by vaccinating all the old and vunerable that's going to reduce spread in rest of population? Sounds far more likely that has soon as a vaccine is available and we come out of lockdown for a final time it'll rip through the under 50s like wildfire.
If I was vaccinated I'd have much less chance of passing it on to my mum. And if all my mates were vaccinated then id have far less chance of getting it in first place. I see no logic in not vaccinating as many as possible if there is enough to go round (what happened to the 200 million doses we bought)
Given everything associated with our government's handling of this has been an almighty clusterxxx please excuse me for questioning their strategy for deploying a vaccine, especially given it seems at odds with what other countries are planning.
And all that is before we even touch upon the fact that all evidence points to fact covid still presents a danger to the under 50s, even if the risk is smaller.
To be fair, this press conference is about 6 weeks late anyway
I'm amazed how they can be this disorganised and have no plan, after 8 months...
I know Boris is useless...but this is something else
tpbiker
Full MemberFrom everything I’ve read there is no plan to vaccinate everyone. If you are under 50 without known health issues and and not in nhs or healthcare you ain’t getting a dose
Initially, sure, but that's not enough to actually provide herd immunity. It's going to be the biggest logistical challenge in the world, for a long time after a vaccine is proven, so it'll take time to vercome scarcity- but of course it can and should be done For it to be worth doing as more than just a limited protection- ie, to beat the disease rather than just protecting a subgroup of people- it has to go out to the huge majority. And sadly that's looking more and more like it means "everyone who wants it", because there'll be so many refusers.
(and I feel like we have to bear in mind that this is a country that's government thinks it's OK for kids to go hungry, and a world where we don't even provide clean water to everyone. Just imagine the tabloids in a few years time "Cancel their benefits! And their vaccines!" "Now they're giving JAILBIRDS immunity! What next?" And in the states, people are complaining about giving covid healthcare to undocumented immigrants, even though the entire reason to do so is to reduce the spread, not to protect the immigrants)
Understand I didn't literally mean "everyone" just no "over 70s", it will have to be widespread- the point isn't just to protect the few that need it most, it's to stop the thing from reproducing and you do that with very high immunity. There's always people who can't or won't take it and that's why the cast will need to be wider than it might otherwise be. Which realistically in the current stupid climate is probably going to mean making it available to all.
They're just leaking bits and pieces in the usual drip, drip, drip way.
Same old shite.
Looks like I will be back to being exposed to lots of staff/students in school (in close corridors and classrooms) but won't be able to meet 2 mates outside to ride. FFS.
Apparently Johnson was visiting a Zanussi factory this afternoon and now no-one can find him.
Came across this site - https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid which graphs "excess deaths", England and Wales don't come out of the comparison particularly well for the first wave/lockdown period. Not sure if TiRed has a view on that.