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Blame the young, blame the old… whatever floats your boat.
It's not the young people filling the hospital beds and that's what all the restrictions are about in this part of the world. The criteria are published for all to read, it's the level of occupation of beds that's crtical to the alert level and retrictions. The beds are filled with people who for the vast majority are perfectly placed to self-isolate according to that Sage report. But they won't.
No, the Sage report does not say that. It makes it clear that… no, **** this, you’re just trolling.
From the Sage report:
Only 8% of householdscontaining at least one white person aged over 70 also containssomeone aged under age 50.
I'm not trolling but you are with your repeated accusation of trolling. Read back and check your previous unfounded accusations. My facts were right each time.
New study of impact of recent restrictions (not yet peer reviewed)
Results
Among 3,222 individuals, we found strong evidence (p<0.001) that following the rule of six more people reduced their non-work and non-home contacts than expected by chance, though the data were consistent (p=0.827) with an absolute effect of zero. For 1,868 participants, the data were consistent with no change (p=0.18) in other contacts due to 10pm closure. For 639 employed adults, the data suggested (p=0.001) more people reduced their work contacts than expected by chance but results were consistent (p=0.213) with an absolute effect of zero. Among 293 individuals, there was evidence (p=0.01) that following local restrictions more participants had reduced their contacts. On average, participants reported 0.74 (0.16 to 1.55) fewer non-work and non-school contacts than before the restrictions (p=0.005).
Conclusions
We determine that the rule of six and encouraging people to WFH, has seen the average person reduce contacts but these reductions are likely small. There was little suggestion that 10pm closure has affected the number of contacts that participants make outside home, work and school. In contrast to national restrictions, there was a strong suggestion that local restrictions reduced the number of contacts individuals make outside of work and school, though again, this effect was small in comparison to the national lockdown.
Blame the young, blame the old… whatever floats your boat.
It's not just the oldies, if I'd gone to get the milk an hour later the supermarket would have been rammed with parents and kids coming out of the school opposite and just as much lack of masks, social distancing and moaning about places being closed would have been observed.
It's not one group breaking the rules, it's a vocal minority of every group breaking the rules. You never see the ones who are well-behaved as they are limiting trips out and staying at home.
I hope they will.
Even if you take into account the higher proportion of non-whites living in multigenerataional households and calculate as a proprtion of the percentage of the population the minorities represent you get to 10% of the over 70 who live in households with under 50s. That means that 90% (the vast majority as I wrote) can protect themselves. they don't have to go out to work, they don't have to go out to shop, they don't have to go out to eat and drink, they don't have to see their grand children, they don't have to refuse to wear a mask. Many do, and they are the ones filling the hospital beds.
To be fair on the kids, why would they do outside school what they don't have to do in school? And they really aren't the ones filling the hospital beds.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/face-coverings-in-education/face-coverings-in-education
It’s not one group breaking the rules, it’s a vocal minority of every group breaking the rules. You never see the ones who are well-behaved as they are limiting trips out and staying at home.
I'm glad someone has put it so well. The fact that the government has got us blaming this group and that group shows how they suckered do many of us in
kelvin
Full MemberSomething worth reading for people still wondering why we don’t just “lock up the vulnerable” and the rest of us get back to normal…
Interesting.
Despite measures to shield the
vulnerable in spring, COVID-19 was involved in the deaths of 15,646 people in care home residents
My impression was that it was at least in part our policy of clearing the elderly out of hospital, infected or not, and back into care homes that caused this.
My dad had the all-clear from the JR based on an X-ray(!) and a long report to reassure his chosen care home that he was safe to admit. Very sensibly they refused to take the mad old coot.
It’s not one group breaking the rules, it’s a vocal minority of every group breaking the rules. You never see the ones who are well-behaved as they are limiting trips out and staying at home.
I’m glad someone has put it so well. The fact that the government has got us blaming this group and that group shows how they suckered do many of us in
All my various elderly relatives are ignoring the rules as far as I can tell.
At the start, I and my sisters would remonstrate with them, but they've proven us wrong.
None of them are "vocal" they just don't like being stuck at home on their own. Who can blame them?
Thought I'd post this for you - hospital admissions with COVID19 are doubling across the regions with a doubling time of 14-days. Of course the North started higher. I have not added it, but Scotland is two weeks ahead - why might that be? I'll leave you to fathom. There is a big balancing headache.
Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
but Scotland is two weeks ahead – why might that be
Schools back 3 weeks earlier up here, would be the obvious one...
Schools back 3 weeks earlier up here, would be the obvious one…
The problem with making many changes at the same time is that it's nigh on impossible to correlate any impacts. Hopefully, the T&T information is still leading ScotGovs thinking, in which case the house visits thing has still been the main driver (or they are lying).
.....was my first thought also. Do Scottish unis also start earlier?
Unis in the England go back mid-to-late September. The upturn is earlier, and I can't see any acceleration post school return. I'd welcome any other input. I hope to see the Tier 2/3 effects feed in in a week or so. Deaths are pretty predictable from these curves as sqrt(sqrt(admissions))x(admissions/20) across all regions and nations except Wales. Even from the lowest levels like London, SE and SW, which are bumping along at low absolute numbers.
256 admissions/day is about 50 deaths per day (range 33-75) in a week's time.
how have they proven you wrong? People ignoring the rules is why we’re in such a mess!! If everyone was following the rules we’d still be able to go out to the pub etc sensibly but we’d have a much better outlook? Or are they just saying, well everyone else is doing it so we will too?! (Not a great attitude for obvs reasons!)All my various elderly relatives are ignoring the rules as far as I can tell.At the start, I and my sisters would remonstrate with them, but they’ve proven us wrong.
Hmm - maybe after a nice summer where things seemed vaguely under control and the “eat out to catch Covid” scheme, people were just going back to old habits. The younger members of my cricket team certainly were.
Oldnpastit- that video interview at the start is good.
I'd imagine the intensity of the sun will finish sooner up north (as well as the whole intense sun season duration being much shorter compared to the English south coast), that would be strong enough to produce Vitamin D on exposed skin.
Lower levels of VitD are believed to increase the risk of serious Covid symptoms, so admissions spiked upwards sooner in Scotland, followed by northern England?
I’d imagine the intensity of the sun will finish sooner up north (as well as the whole intense sun season duration being much shorter compared to the English south coast),
Quite apart from the Vit D thing, there's also a question of just how pleasant/unpleasant it is to be sitting outdoors. It's quite possible that cooler temperatures drove folk in Scotland and N England indoors.
All my various elderly relatives are ignoring the rules as far as I can tell.
At the start, I and my sisters would remonstrate with them, but they’ve proven us wrong.
Really? How have they proved you wrong? Are infection rates dropping nationally?
People ignoring the rules is why we’re in such a mess!!
Actually, I think this is unlikely. I think the majority follow the rules just fine. But the fact is that when you add school returns into the mix of all the other rules, there is not a large enough reduction in transmission. Clearly this is a feature not a bug, and it means balancing education and the economy is harder than first thought.
The Menu:
Schools open, businesses open, work from office = epidemic doubles every three days
Schools closed, businesses closed, work from home = epidemic halves every 21 days
Schools closed, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic stable
Schools open, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic doubles every two weeks
...
not very appetizing.
On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this as a prophylactic to guard against Covid and also high dose IV vit D given given to anyone admitted to hospital.
The small pilot study below showed only 2% of patients given IV vitamin D on hospital admission for Covid progressed to ICU, vs 50% of patients who weren’t given vit D. None of the patients taking vit D died.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764
Small numbers in the study I know, but pretty startling results. Surely for something so cheap and risk free they should be jumping on this.
Maybe the fact it is so cheap and doesn’t have patents associated with it means drug companies aren’t interested in pushing it.
Interesting graphic
On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this
PHE advise is everyone takes 10 micrograms?
The Menu:
Schools open, businesses open, work from office = epidemic doubles every three days
Schools closed, businesses closed, work from home = epidemic halves every 21 days
Schools closed, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic stable
Schools open, businesses part open, work from home = epidemic doubles every two week
Google tells me that hasn't been published anywhere. If it has please let me know where and if it hasn't and you have evidence to back it up please publish!
A crèche/school is once again the centre of a cluster locally:
PHE advise is everyone takes 10 micrograms?
I think that’s a general recommendation in place before Covid. It’s also a fairly low dose. I’ve been taking 50ug for the last few months.
I think that’s a general recommendation in place before Covid. It’s also a fairly low dose. I’ve been taking 50ug for the last few months.
No they used to advise at risk groups take it in the winter, they changed it a few months to everyone take it all year as part of a covid update
On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this
They claim there's insufficient evidence.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/insufficient-evidence-for-vitamin-d-preventing-or-treating-artis
All I know is that if it's good enough for Donald Trump, then it's good enough for me....
Clearly this is a feature not a bug, and it means balancing education and the economy is harder than first thought.
How much of the schools being open won't impact was wishful thinking? Just using the unsound barometer of social media it seemed to be a lot of people making some strong claims this virus was going to behave differently in a school setting. Not just the public making statements but media coverage being shared.
They claim there’s insufficient evidence.
That report is nearly 4 months old now and I recall the NICE study was critised for not reviewing all the latest evidence at the time.
was wishful thinking?
Probably quite a bit. I often say, wanting something is not the same as having evidence to support it. I want mass cross-reactive T-cell immunity to manifest itself in reduced spread. I don't see evidence. I want children not to spread infection. OK, they don't clog the hospitals - as they do with influenza - but they do get the infection. Perhaps they do pass it on, just like other asymptomatic viral infections.
I think targetting the maintenance of an open education system is a worthy primary objective. Balancing healthcare with that may be a challenge. Eating out perhaps the first casualty.
On the subject of vitamin D, I don’t know why the govt aren’t recommending people take this as a prophylactic to guard against Covid and also high dose IV vit D given given to anyone admitted to hospital.
Its already a piece of standing advice that if you live in a cooler climate (or have darker skin) you should take Vic D. Its not so much that it has any miracle cure ability its more than a deficiency is a problem in its own right an makes you vulnerable to adverse during any kind of infection not just covid. When we talk about underlying health conditions.... a vitamin deficiency is an underlying health condition. Reducing that deficiency across the population removes one of those co-morbidites. But taking more than enough vitamin d won't make you in some way extra resistant to disease.
In a sense its not being 'pushed' as its not new news. The message to take vitamins has been out there so long we don't notice it. But I wish it had been discussed more when the issue of race and vulnerability to covid was in the media. There will of course be a whole host of social, political and economic factors relating BAME vulnerability to covid but we can't just undo them all overnight. But in the US for instance, 80% of the BAME population have a vid d deficiency and while you can't undo the the damaging consequences of slavery and segregation tomorrow you can say 'take vitamin D, especially if you have dark skin' and in all probability save some lives - across the board not just in relation to covid.
An interesting bit of research for anyone considering flying (even with a mask):
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624#html_fulltext
Yes, there seemed to be a lot of "aren't the Swedes being brave and successful" at the start, and now we know why it went quiet.
Not seeing much about the reaction of the Swedish people to the situation? Are they outraged at their government or are they resigned nationally to what could be considered an unnecessary but pragmatic situation? (In no way am I suggesting it's the right approach, to be clear)
Rumours doing the rounds around the north west is that we'll be going into 'Tier 4' next week, whatever that entails. Matt Hancock pretty much confirming that just now...
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1320631110804606976?s=20
We look forward to 'Tier 27' by Christmas where we all have to be shrink-wrapped then encased in concrete, while still being required to go to work
Yes, there seemed to be a lot of “aren’t the Swedes being brave and successful” at the start, and now we know why it went quiet.
Not seeing much about the reaction of the Swedish people to the situation? Are they outraged at their government or are they resigned nationally to what could be considered an unnecessary but pragmatic situation? (In no way am I suggesting it’s the right approach, to be clear)
I think a lot of people here have acknowledged that things could have been done differently both at the start of the epidemic (to protect more people in vulnerable situations) and now. Certainly Tegnell has said that and he is leading our response.
As for the average person... Well, a lot of the people here (Stockholm) are carrying on as normal. Maybe these are mostly the younger ones that do not think they will be affected much/at all by an infection. People _have_ changed behaviour though and there are obvious protections in place around the city for people working in it. I can't comment on public transport (hate the stuff and use my bike if I have to commute), but a lot of people I know are avoiding it.
I live in Stockholm. I work from home. I do, however, go into the office when I have to and there are very obvious measures in place to encourage social distancing. People do ignore them and that is there choice. If you are in a situation and someone is too close, asking them to "håller avstånd" does work and people will back off. Generally though, you are given space..
As for out of the city, the Time article does give some indication that things are not going so well. The Uppsala outbreak they mention is real, but is centred around Uppsala hospital, even though cases are rising in the city itself. Dalarna is a county, and a sparsely populated one at that, so any rise is concerning and likely to be a localised outbreak in, say, Borlänge or Falun or somewhere big.
The problem now is winter. It is already cold and a lot of people do not have the stomach to take bikes or scooters on their commute. Subway and bus will get more crowded and people will start avoiding outside areas in restaurants and bars. This doesn't really impact me or a lot of people in my social group (such as it is), but it could present a challenge for other people that are younger and have a social life.
Thanks Willard. Always interesting to hear other people's real world experience. Stay safe over there!
while still being required to go to
workWetherspoons
FTFY
Indeed. Wetherspoons will be the only business classified by the government as essential and allowed to remain open. Every citizen will then be released from their sealed bunkers and mandated to go and eat a chicken korma and drink a pint of Fosters, twice a week, whether they like it or not.
Tier 27’ by Christmas where we all have to be shrink-wrapped then encased in concrete, while still being required to go to work
And schools still open.
MoreCash, no worries. There are at least three of us over here, with at least one of us up in the mountains probably enjoying early snow and not the crappy rain that seems to be infesting the city has right now...
it really is a strange time. A lot of businesses are enabling working from home and that is leading to a lot mental health issues, especially as the darkness sets in. To be honest, the hardest parts of all this were changing jobs just after it all started and not getting a chance to meet my team for a long time. I left a good group of people at my last place and then just spent months talking to people on Slack or Teams. Summer, I think, saved me from going mad or more fully into depression. Nothing like skydiving to remind you of priorities. I still don't see my team or boss often enough though.
+1 exiled in Sweden! 😁
With relaxed guidance here for the over 70's, we'll wait and see what effect that has on the infection/hospital/death numbers.
I don't think any review of the different Covid pandemic strategies will be relevant, until at least in a few years time.
Well dammit! Now there are four of us!
Nice photo of Dougal and Fr Jack above.
Every citizen will then be released from their sealed bunkers and mandated to go and eat a chicken korma and drink a pint of Fosters,
As if we haven't suffered enough!
the hardest parts of all this were changing jobs just after it all started and not getting a chance to meet my team
I changed jobs in September, no face to face meetings as yet, all training is online, it's a really weird and shit way to start a new job!
Whilst Sweden has provided a limited counterfactual, I am afraid that the phenotype of virus behaviour just does not care for nationality. I see little to distinguish Sweden from elsewhere. The other Scandinavian countries are in a better place to protect their citizens as they have effective tracing and maintained low absolute numbers. They are almost certainly under no allusions that spread will increase and deaths follow without controls.
I know people want to believe the let-it-pass, herd immunity, T-cell cross reactive protection, relatively mild infection, low IFR, mantra. And so do I! But belief needs testable hypotheses. What happens when you let the brakes off? Immunity still protective? Or exponential increases in transmission.
At the moment, it universally looks like the latter. Everywhere. The degree is dependent on the starting levels. But those are the (nonlinear) rules. They suck to be honest. Sweden is nothing special in my view I am afraid to say. As time passes I am sure others will see things the same.
Had a busy weekend with regional data, so updated the predictions using NHS regional level data. Then used the simple rule of 6 (deaths in 7 days = admissions today/6) at this level to compound up to look at how well the data is predicted (not modelled) at regional and Nation level. Quite pleased with the outcome. Previous predictions have not changed and a week later, the 7-day death rolling mean deaths are as expected. The difference is that the blue lines are NOT fits to data, they are predictions from the red admissions.
Interesting to see the Wales graph, does that mean you have taken into account their lockdown ?
Any positive news would be appreciated too 👍
@TiRed yeah, I now that and, to be honest, a lot of other people do too. I should read more of the local media to see if i can communicate that a bit more here. It would also, I think, make me a little more focussed on what is happening where I live rather than where I came from.
As I see it, the only advantage that we have here is a relatively small population spread out over a relatively large country. We also have a lot of single user abodes in the major population centres, but the fact remains that Stockholm is a very heavily populated area and those are great for spreading contagious diseases. Living in the middle of it, even if I work from home and stay away from people when I go out means that I am resigned to "when", not "if" at this point. Being blunt, that scares the shit out of me, not as much for me getting ill, but in case I am asymptomatic and I, despite taking precautions, give it to someone else that gets seriously ill or dies.
Wales is an exception, largely because they count suspected not confirmed COVID19 admissions. the relationship with mortality is quite different I am afraid, and I sadly consider the data unreliable.
So Nottingham is belatedly going to Tier 3, now positive tests are about a third of the numbers a fortnight ago 🤦♂️
Our club is based just outside the restricted area, a few Tier 3 members are trying to figure out if they can meet up at the cafe stops.
It'll be interesting to watch the Govt ignore their own MPs on this.
There's already a playbook for that - they'll have the whip removed and be replaced at the next election by less qualified people prepared to do what they are told 🙁
There’s already a playbook for that – they’ll have the whip removed and be replaced at the next election by less qualified people prepared to do what they are told
It really doesn't matter surely people in the North are not stupid enough to vote tory again (disclaimer I am astounded by how many thick people voted for them last time round)
At the GE johnson wrote cheques he couldn't cash by promising a levelling up agenda.
On an increasing number of issues he's painted himself into a corner with no obvious way out.
55 northern MPs making noise is just the start; they won't back down - why should they?
Their electorates won't let them; they were promised action and what they get is an imposed lockdown with no exit plan and grossly inadequate financial support.
It's likely those MPs represent constituencies with a disproportionately high number of children on FSM and their constituents are deeply annoyed about that, making sure their elected representatives are getting an earful.
There is also a dawning realisation of the Brexit transition shitstorm which will be hosing down on them in two months.
johnson doesn't have the means to control this - he knows, the tory party knows and the labour opposition definitely knows.
He is so far out of his depth it would be supremely enjoyable to sit back and watch him disintegrate - if it wasn't for the fact that the UK is in so much trouble and johnson with his clown circus are utterly useless clueless lightweights; political opportunists without a shred of integrity.
This is only the start.
There is no chance of those MPs being threatened with removal of the whip; that will only cause more internal dissent.
I think it's reached the time where QE2 rolls into Downing Street with some heavies and cleans up politics.
It really doesn’t matter surely people in the North are not stupid enough to vote tory again (disclaimer I am astounded by how many thick people voted for them last time round)
Rossendale has voted Jake Berry for the last 10 years despite the fact he lives in his Anglesey property empire nowadays, votes to starve school kids, and is a Boris and Cummings arse licker.
A majority of Rossendale people are really stupid!
Can we try to keep this thread politics free? I realise its tricky and I love Tory bashing as much as anyone but other threads exist for that
What irks me is that 14 MPs anonymously signed it. What's the point of that? Whinging shysters!
Local news websites are reporting that West Yorkshire leaders are in discussions with Westminster about going into Tier 3 but there's no details about timeline etc.
They think they can stay in Tier 2 but the cases are not really in decline yet.
Is there an actual objective set of criteria to determine Tier 3 entry or is it just political?
Is there an actual objective set of criteria to determine Tier 3 entry or is it just political?
Entry and exit supposed to measured on the R number but that’s been very much a statement made after the fact. It originally seem to be based on rising cases being “a lot”, “a lot being a vague subjective measurement up until... well now.
One of my neighbours works in a hospital in greater Manchester. They can’t admit any more people because of the logistics of keeping covid positive patients separate. Technically they are not at capacity but not if you are closing wards to deep clean them. Plus obviously you can’t admit already sick (not with covid) people to wards with covid on them. So the Nightingale is opening to try and protect non covid capacity elsewhere.
Some positive news
Oxford Covid vaccine works in all ages, trials suggest
and some negative (although antibodies aren’t always a good indicator of immunity)
Proportion of people in England with Covid antibodies has fallen, study says
Yeah, that's how I started my day this morning.
It's not 'old' news as such, but I think the hope that we'd all have 1 (well 2) Covid jabs and be immune forever was dashed a while ago.
That said, despite 43m known cases world-wide, proven instances of people catching it twice are very rare.
55 northern MPs making noise is just the start; they won’t back down – why should they?
Much was made of the 'Red Wall' Tory victories, but it was against the most hopeless labour leadership ever seen, and it was hardly some thumping landslide. Those MP's are sat on paper-thin majorities. My own new Tory MP's majority is 100 votes. He's signed the letter despite being a rabid Brexiteer, Boris cheerleader and utter *!
What they will be painfully aware of is that our economy is about to go into freefall. Every day that goes by with no plan to get the north out of lockdown means more business failures, more job losses, more misery and hopelessness, more kids needing free school meals. The compensation being offered for this by central government is pitiful and amounts to little more than loose change. It's a drop in the ocean compared to what's really required to see us through a winter under lockdown. And everyone up here thinks (knows) this will be a full winter under lockdown. We're not stupid.
These Tory MPs haven't suddenly developed social consciences. They're Tory's after all. This is basic, naked self-interest. They all have tiny majorities and they want to keep their seats on the all-expenses-paid gravy train. They can see what we can all see from up here. That, far from Levelling-up, Boris and his Westminster chums seem happy to sit back and let a re-run of the 1980's rip through northern communities again over a long bleak winter, while the South remains unaffected, as is has done up until now. Just to reiterate: 'The North' has been under Tier 2 restrictions since July. We only ever came out of lockdown for a couple of weeks.
They don't give a flying * about us. Even their own MP's know it.
What irks me is that 14 MPs anonymously signed it. What’s the point of that?
If nothing else it suggests that some Tory MPs believe their own party is more likely to act vindictively against dissenters than engage constructively to address their concerns.
Thread at risk of being de-railed; this one is coronavirus - not dissention within the tory party.
I plead guilty to being part of that de-railing.
Thread at risk of being de-railed; this one is coronavirus – not dissention within the tory party.
I plead guilty to being part of that de-railing.
Coronavirus has/is/always was a Political and Economic Issue as much as a Medical and Scientific one.
Unless you want to create a Coronapolotics thread.
There's a sense that Johnson could be removed from office by his own party by December, either because he'll actually preside over a no-deal, or because he's lost control of the Covid Crisis, it will have a huge impact on CV in the UK.
Is the Coronanomics more relevant?
let's reboot that then' eh?
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
🤔
This thread is clearly a reflection of the CV crisis. It is intertwined with politics, like it or not. Don't shut it down for that please.
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
It's already in the post...
Matt Hanccock was asked yesterday if that was presently on the cards for the north. His reply was "everything is being considered"
So, thats a yes then?
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
I see Government has skipped straight to having a Trilogy in Four Parts in the absence of any other plan.
Maybe Dominic sees himself as Deep Thought.
So Long, and Thanks for all the Fash.
How long until a Tier 4 arrives?
I'm more concerned that they'll discover that there are no palatable/practical restrictions that will bring the R rate below 1 in the UK in Autumn/Winter, not even close.
I was reading this morning about Melbourne / Victoria's hard fought numbers, they spent 100+ days in some of the strictest lockdown rules in the world. Arguably stricter than ours were at their height.
We're always told there is a 2-3 week lag on Covid numbers after any change in regulations, but I worry that, whilst restrictions obviously have an impact, it's very limited. Like the UK it took Months, not weeks for numbers to fall, and then, suddenly as their Spring got into it's stride numbers plummeted.
Northern MPs are calling for an exit strategy, but what if the only strategy is "wait until mid-April"? Were we 'lucky' with the first wave that it landed in the UK right at the end of Winter?
I think, and this is only something I've come up with myself, that we're going to spend the next 5 months arguing over rules and regs, but ultimately the virus is going to continue to spread until the Sun comes back, whether we can mitigate deaths through vaccinations and new treatments I don't know, but if as I fear lock-downs and restrictions have a limited to negligible effect on numbers, we might be back to the real hard questions we were asking back in March. Can we actually do anything to stop it, or do we have to accept that we can't really control the spread of the virus until we can vaccinate people en mass and are we only ruining our economy and peoples lives because Humans can't accept Deaths.
Northern MPs are calling for an exit strategy, but what if the only strategy is “wait until mid-April”?
I don't think that anyone in the North thinks we'll be out of lockdown before spring next year. And if that's the situation then we just have to deal with it. But deal with it we mst. And not just the medical side.
The trouble is that, while we seem prepared to acknowledge that, the government aren't. They're still crossing their fingers, hurling more money at their mates and hoping for the best.
And we all know why. Because the present economic package for the north is threadbare enough as it is. If we enter a full winter of these restrictions, or worse, then there will be absolutely nothing left of our economy by the spring.
That's the reality
The reality is that what's coming means we're all screwed. Tory MPs in the North can say what they want and write as many letters as they like. They're along for the ride as much as the rest of us. Boris' cohort have power for another 4 years and they're going to make sure they use it to full advantage. They have no interest in the common man or life after the next election. None.