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3 StdDev ranges?
No - that's a 99% interval (0.5th to 99.5th percentiles). The plot is 5th to 95th percentiles (1.645 standard deviations), so 9/10 observations might be expected to fall in that range. Standard curves work as follows:
99/100 inside 3 standard deviations (P0.5 to P99.5)
19/20 inside 2 standard deviations (P2.5 to P97.5)
9/10 inside 1.645 standard deviations (P5 to P95)
8/10 inside 2.24 standard deviations (Inter-decile range, P10 to P80)
1/2 inside 0.68 standard deviations (Inter-quartile range, P25 to P75)
All assuming a normal distribution. A Poisson count does reduce to normal for large counts and assumes the standard deviation is the root of the mean. The data may be over dispersed which means more variability (called negative binomial), but I haven't formally tested this. Predicting too wide an interval is usually a hiding to nothing due to outliers - 9/10 is reasonable to reject the model at the 10% significance level.
Hope that makes sense. As @thecaptain says - if there are 500 deaths per day by mid Nov, one can reject the model with 90% confidence because it is outside the prediction interval. That's how inference works.
[tl:dr] prediction of the future must include variability. If future values fall outside of the range one can reject the model that made the prediction with some confidence. How much confidence is left to the user. Statistics works at 9/10 to 19/20 times by convention.
Thanks. My stats is a bit rusty despite what's happened this year
I thought that Poisson was best used for events with very low frequency and high consequences but rarely seen eg modelling huge earthquakes.
-ve Binomial is more commonly used for modelling higher frequency phenomena like windstorms where it tends to be more empirical (but what we've observed is not the best representation of what can happen)
(My line of work is very different to yours)
NHS seem to know a bit more about all this stuff than Deloitte and Serco.
Remind me about that App from NHSX. I agree that some clinical knowledge will be helpful for judgement. But you need systems to make things work operationally. The NHS runs on XL from what I can gather. That's what they are buying.
I thought that Poisson was best used for events with very low frequency and high consequences but rarely seen eg modelling huge earthquakes.
Plenty of options for describing count data. Poisson is the simplest and is derived from events at a constant rate per unit time. If there are too many zeros in your data, the next is called "zero-inflated" which says zero's happen more often, and are treated separately. But if there is something to count, it behaves Poission (variance = mean). Then if the variability is a bit off (more or less than Poission), the next tool in the box is negative binomial. If there are more zeros than you want, then zero-inflated negative binomial. And so on...
When the numbers get large, everything tends to look like a normal distribution 😉
👍
Purely out of curiosity, aren't both Binomial/Poisson distributions, the distributions of independent events? How are hospital admissions independent events?
"Application of these distributions to model variability is limited, in part, because of the need to assume independence and homogeneity. For studies of communicable disease, application may be inappropriate because of lack of independence. For example, if one person in a group develops the 'flu', others in that group have higher risk, reflecting dependency of disease occurrence. Insituations like these, the investigator may attempt to modify the model to account for the dependency.9"
Does your model do take that into account TiRed?
Does your model do take that into account TiRed?
To describe events such as radioactivity counts, yes, Poission has a constant rate per unit time. In modelling disease events, the underlying rate of events is time-varying (which captures the disease transmission dynamics). So the mean rate is predicted by, for example, an SEIR model, but individual observations of numbers in any day would be Poisson distributed. People tend to come in unit amounts - hence count data is described, Inconvenient, I know 😉 . Then to construct a prediction interval, either calculate in closed-form with the above assumptions, or perform bootstrap simulations and summarise across the replicates. The above plots are the summary of 10,000 realisations of the model.
When counts get low and zeros appear, zero-inflated models come into play.
Cheers TiRed, I'm now going to go away and bang that into my skull and break out the google kung fu until I think I fully understand that post.
People tend to come in unit amounts – hence count data is described, Inconvenient, I know
😀
@reluctantjumper The only number I know off the top of my head is that Wales has 189 at baseline, but, for example, most places round here increased ITU capacity by at least 50%. We’ll run out of staff before we run out of equipment or bed spaces.
The Nightingale locally was no help last time round, as the admission criteria were very strict and as other people have said the specialist staff can’t be conjured out of thin air; those who could be redeployed from other areas had already been to service increased intensive care provision in the existing hospitals. It’s hard to see how it will be different this time.
Also, there’s not enough capacity in the system to do a surge and continue diagnostics/treatment elsewhere, which the ‘hidden’ harm resulting from that.
Which is why it’s wise to remember that we didn’t “protect the NHS” back in the spring… we all but shut down normal NHS care to divert resources to keeping Coronavirus sufferers alive. We can’t do that during the winter. Well, we can, but the damage will be far greater than in the spring.
Lots of folk now reporting a 5-day wait for test results. Todays numbers from Scotland are artificially low due to an issue with the UK testing apparatus. I suspect the other nations might have a similar problem. That's all very handy when we're actually trying to determine whether recently introduced measures are working and whether or not additional measures are required.
It is all rather convenient isn't it. I'm just watching the numbers of patients in hospital as if that gets too high then no amount of test, track or tracing will help.
@ratherbeintobago - that's the only figure I could find too, nothing for England at all. I'm only asking as my dad's chemo is being ramped up next week and the consultant said it would go ahead unless all the ITU beds were reserved for Covid19 patients and that they were close to capacity already. If they cancel the treatment then he might not make it through the winter purely due to him wasting away.
Critical care beds
Unlike most other categories of hospital bed in the NHS, the total number of critical care beds has increased in recent years. Monthly data for January 2020 indicates there were around 5,900 critical care beds, which is 13 per cent higher than the 5,200 in January 2011 (see Figure 2). Of these, 4,100 (just under 70 per cent) are for use by adults, with the remainder for children and infants.
the total number of critical care beds has increased in recent years
Barely. In fact as a proportion of the population, we have fewer critical care beds now.
Rustled up a graph from WHO data…
Top line is all EU countries, bottom line is UK only.
A bit scary that we’re forming the bottom of the range of all countries there. World beating.
So my dad got taken into hospital (again) on Thursday (various issues I won’t go into). Mum got a call tonight to say the man in the bed next to him has tested positive for covid! FFS how does someone with covid get onto a hospital ward.......to say I am a bit concerned for my dad is an understatement. Just venting really.
FFS how does someone with covid get onto a hospital ward
Catches it from a taxi driver on the way in. Catches it from someone in waiting area. False negative.
I know, as I say I am just venting. My folks have been trying to do everything right shielding etc given my dads health. He was in hospital last month and had to get a precovid test first before getting operation etc. just frustrating that if he does get it it’s from the place that was trying to look after him. Fingers crossed anyway.
“Defunding” is different though, it’s a real and possibly very important thing that just has had massive amounts of effort and bots and stuff thrown at derailing and misrepresenting it.
(Defunding started out as a call to take things like mental health, homelessness and drug responses off the police, because they keep on shooting people for the crimes of autism and poorness, and take away the funds that were spent on that with the police, and give it to more appropriate operators.
Sorry, I should have clarified that with a use of defunding as a term in relation to the UK. Not the US context.
The pandemic will continue to grow out of control because folks refuse to make basic sacrifices. Yesterday hundreds of old firm fans jumped on trains to get pished in pubs In Carlisle despite being asked repeatedly not to.
If folks aren't prepared to forego something as basic as that, then the immediate future is looking bleak.
Damning commentary from Richard Horton on what a sick nation we are and how this has made the situation worse for the UK, especially the areas in Tier 3:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/18/alarming-data-britain-sick-man-europe-before-covid
On the other hand, if the government lost all authority on that when Cummings wasn’t sacked immediately after the Barnard Castle stunt.
So if a cabinet minister gets caught drink driving, then the obvious reaction from the general public is to hop into the car for a couple of pints? Of course Cummings should have been sacked, but the fact remains people are looking for reasons not to comply with the rules and Barnard Castle was a perfect excuse.
Sotroutes : Lots of folk now reporting a 5-day wait for test results.
Nothing new there, my bro’s gf works in a local care home in Galloway (run by CIC) and over the previous few weeks their COVID test results have taken from 3 to 7 days to get a result which makes the tests utterly pointless. Due to this the staff at the care home have been isolating from others apart from those they meet at work.
Must admit I was surprised my better half's postal test result came back today, ~75 hours after putting in post box around midday Thursday. From what I've read recently, I was expecting Tuesday+.
currently experiencing a fever. 🙁
temp was 36.6 this morning, which i think it normal for me, currently last checked was 37.2 a rise of 1/2 a degree.
This thing frightens me, but its the actions of others, especially the government that has me concerned. ALMOST like it was being deliberately spread.
If not, then thats a damned fing way of containing a dangerous virus.
Took reading just there and now 37.6c. wont say thats worrying, but it is 😕
Seems like the Conservative party have just totally ****ed over Lancashire.
https://twitter.com/cirian75/status/1317407033826643969
Temperatures can rise for all manner of infections Dyna. Have you booked a test?.
Took reading just there and now 37.6c. wont say thats worrying, but it is
I had a fever twice a couple of months ago (think it must have been another bug or food poisoning) took a test and got a negative result both times. All the best dude and try and get a test.
Remind me about that App from NHSX.
The one designed and written by private sector consultants?
It is the great thing about the decimation of the public sector and replacement with overpaid consultants (who just happen to be good contributors to the political parties). When they screw up its used as an excuse to attack the public sector and announce how the private sector should be involved more.
World beating cockup
So if a cabinet minister gets caught drink driving, then the obvious reaction from the general public is to hop into the car for a couple of pints? Of course Cummings should have been sacked, but the fact remains people are looking for reasons not to comply with the rules and Barnard Castle was a perfect excuse.
If they failed to take any resposibility for their actions, then yes, some people probably would think 'Why should I?'
Interesting idea from Manchester City Council - sheilding vs lockdown
"rather than have a blanket business closure policy of dubious efficacy. Greater Manchester have estimated the cost of a shielding programme at around £14m a month, less than a fifth of the estimated cost of business closures."
Took reading just there and now 37.6c. wont say thats worrying, but it is
Just decided to take my temp to get a baseline for future reference....35.7!
That can't be right can it? Unless I'm a lizard?
Interesting idea from Manchester City Council – sheilding vs lockdown
Its hardly a revolutionary concept, is it?
Having been under Tier 2 lockdown for 12 weeks in Greater Manchester, having only been out of the original lockdown for a couple of weeks, its fairly obvious that it just isn't working. Infections just keep rising. What was Einsteins definition of madness, again?
It is, however, devastating our economy and plunging many people into real hardship. Ironically, as Marcus Rashford campaigns for free school meals through the holidays, the amount of children now needing free school meals in Manchester is going through the roof as unemployment sky-rockets, and even those technically still in employment are now dependent on benefits
So it needs a new approach which requires a bit of open minded thinking. I look at the government and I don't see much thinking going on at all, open minded or otherwise.
The entire 'strategy', such as it it, seems to involve locking down the places they don't give a shit about, then throwing a few billion quid more to their favourite management consultants in the hope that one of them comes up with something
What is nuts... is that no matter what "Tier" you are in, support for shielding is still not happening. You can be in a Tier3 region, vulnerable, and government advice is still to go to work "if you have to" and get down the shops to get your essential supplies.
Why should it be one or the other? We all need to change our behaviour in the short term to get the virus under control (with support for those in sectors where this means either a legally enforced or an effective shutdown) and help the identified vulnerable shield while we get things back under control.
Going to a shielding only response is doomed to fail though... there are many unidentified vulnerable... and that could be you, or your partner... and even shielding the identified vulnerable requires low enough levels of infection in the community for them to be reasonably safely fed and cared for by other humans... there is no failsafe firewall for most of them.
Thats a full 2 week 'circuit breaker' lockdown in Wales then
Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.
Yes, BUT
Kids still have to go to school, years 8 and under.
Arse, was looking forward to lazy mornings!
Also more help money being announced.
Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.
Well, not "full", just more.
It shouldn't have to be necessary... but we're past the point where other options can be experimented with further... all the alternative measures can be tried once we've changed the shape of the curve... we need to act now to get ahead of the virus, not spend the next couple of months chasing after it... assuming we don't want a much longer "lockdown" later this winter.
Private nursury aslo open throughout - you think you'ld shut them for half term at least! no mention of what recreation we can and can't do yet
Do we have a scientific view of the decision to let kids year 8 and under go back to school?
Change of test measurement reporting up here, makes sense. If you've had a test, negative, then weeks later have another test that is positive, you are not counted as a new test number (because you had one negative before), so the % of positive tests each day is artificially inflated.
Assume rUK is the same?
Takes todays figures of 17% positive tests to 6%.
Does that even make sense?
Do we have a scientific view of the decision to let kids year 8 and under go back to school?
Purely anecdotally, it's years 9 and above where the numbers of cases are highest, particularly 11,12 and 13.
Each person could only ever be counted once, no matter how many tests they had.
So if 5 people were tested today, 4 of them had tested negative before, and only one of those 5 tested positive today (the one who hadn't been tested before), that would be reported as 100% of tests being positive.
Make sense now Molly?
Do we have a scientific view of the decision to let kids year 8 and under go back to school?
Younger kids dont get symptoms or get different ones so dont get tested.
ONS age data is the most up to date evidence here. Children can become infected. It is likely that they can pass on the infection. There is some difference between primary and secondary. But that does not rule out an effect in primary either. Cases, admissions and deaths have climbed since schools opened on a background of no other changes. There is a disproportionate effect in the oldest children and young adults, since these have the most contacts. The oldest adults 70+ are not seeing quite the same rise.
@kelvin.
nope live alone, though ive a sister can help out. but day too day im alone.
@tp/mole and co.
i guess your own temp isnt always going to be on the average, i think im much the same and normally 36 or so, and just 1/2 a degree makes you ill.
I also had another small chest infection a few months ago, which took about a week 2 clear up. I think this is the same 😕
As 2 catching any other infection id say how, as i wear cotton gloves constantly when outside, home i still wash my hands, and wear a mask always, so how i could become infected with any virus or infection, given the precautions, plus i only shop every three days and its close and completed in 10mins.
If that is the case then it appears there is nothing I can do to prevent becoming infected no matter the precautions.
Am I the only one who when i hear some clot claim its all fakery, i want to grab that person and punch them several times in the face ?.
Are you checking in with your sister regularly?
I don't like the thought of your condition going South, and no one being aware. Keep us updated please.
Thats a full 2 week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown in Wales then
Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.
I'm sure someone will be along in a moment to say that anything short of having the Army on the streets to enforce Marshall Law and house arrest on everyone isn't "full lockdown", but yes we're going back to where we were in March with a few exceptions that most people have mentioned above. One upside for me is a my closest Mate lives alone, so I can buddy up with him for some moral support, as I'm the one stuck in the house with two bored kids and wife I think I need it more than him.
TBH, it has a reasonably minimal impact on me, I don't like WFH, but unlike March I'm not going to try to set up my office in my Dinning Room, I'm just going to do what I can with my Laptop and mobile. We won't be trying to set up WFH for thousands of people so I won't be needed to do any actual IT support, which is good for me and for the poor sods who had to receive my terrible 'support'. I'm going to try to avoid the who panic/stress thing of last time and take the opportunity to try to rest up a bit, get some riding in, etc. Based on last time and the usual half-term lull in work, I probably only need to do a couple of hours a day.
I really hope it works, I have some doubts, we won't know the impact until after the lock-down, and he's already made noises that the rules will change, and not for the better afterwards, whilst it WILL end in 2 weeks, I'm sure that new rules imposed after it, will feel more like a gradual release like last time.
Perhaps equally worrying, the graphs (that I've seen anyway) produced by WAG to justify it all end on Jan 2nd, with a projected figure far higher than now, either they're hoping a vaccine will be ready by then AND administered to enough people, or we'll need a much longer lockdown again in Jan to get us through to Spring.
Tired - those graphs appear to show infections rising in year 7-11, which looks like it shows that they are spreading it. However the line is mostly flat between late August and the beginning of October. So the fact it starts rising in August, when they are off school, and doesn't kick up til October, when they've been in school for a month suggests that they aren't catching it at school - am I right? Therefore they aren't spreading it themselves, they are catching it from other people...?
Interesting idea from Manchester City Council – sheilding vs lockdown
This is the route which would reduce deaths the most.
It would protect those at most risk, but allow the rest of society to function.
Thats a full 2 week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown in Wales then
Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.
Been guaranteed since early last week. As soon as the idea was mooted the WAG have basically saying to Westminster "If you won't enact this and follow the science then we will do it anyway." They gave Boris and Co a chance to lead rather than follow and he blew it, as usual.
So my dad got taken into hospital (again) on Thursday (various issues I won’t go into). Mum got a call tonight to say the man in the bed next to him has tested positive for covid! FFS how does someone with covid get onto a hospital ward…….to say I am a bit concerned for my dad is an understatement. Just venting really.
Vent away. My dad was due to go to have his Chemo treatment on Wednesday but got a call this morning to cancel the appointment as they have 2 suspected Covid cases and are awaiting test results. This was a previously 'Covid Clean' hospital so it most likely came in the same way as the person next to your dad did. Dad is only going as an outpatient so no ward risks to worry about long-term exposure. They're really good about keeping patients apart too, you sit in your car until called for your appointment, go in one door straight into the room via a fire door. Minimum staff in there and out via a corridor back to the car park. Helps that it's a small community hospital so really easy to keep track of people on site.
This is the route which would reduce deaths the most.
It would protect those at most risk, but allow the rest of society to function.
This is becoming the route that a few more people in the Scientific world are suggesting.
I'm sure the economists like it too, most of the people who would be asked to shield are Elderly and not employed.
I guess the problem for the Tories is a political one, their voter base is older, and asking (or in Dail Mail speak, banning) 12 million people in the UK over-65 to stay indoors for an unknown amount of time, isn't exactly a vote winner.
It would be my preferred route out of this, as long as the Science backs it up.
Been guaranteed since early last week. As soon as the idea was mooted the WAG have basically saying to Westminster “If you won’t enact this and follow the science then we will do it anyway.” They gave Boris and Co a chance to lead rather than follow and he blew it, as usual.
The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they're fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he'll disagree to avoid looking like he's not in charge.
It will be his undoing.
I guess the problem for the Tories is a political one, their voter base is older, and asking (or in Dail Mail speak, banning) 12 million people in the UK over-65 to stay indoors for an unknown amount of time, isn’t exactly a vote winner
No, but if a large proportion of them arnt around at the next election, thats not going to help with votes either...
So how does the Welsh support package compare to Boris' latest offering for Tier 3?
The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they’re fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he’ll disagree to avoid looking like he’s not in charge.
It will be his undoing.
Absolutely. He's got his minions trying to undermine the Welsh lockdown already. From The Guardian:
The Tory leader in Wales, Paul Davies, said: “Sadly, the first minster has failed to get public support for this second Wales-wide lockdown, failing to be open and transparent about the evidence to justify this lockdown and what his actions will entail for the future.
“The Welsh government also has to be honest that this road they are taking us down is committing Wales to rolling Wales-wide lockdowns. This is not a two-week break to solve the pandemic, it is likely that we will see regular lockdowns across the rest of the year.
Completely goes against what people I've spoken to have said. Everyone seems completely fine with enduring 2-3 weeks of restrictions if it helps protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and ultimately saves lives. This is action with a clear purpose and people are responding to that positively.
The problem with people (like Boris) with a bunker mentality is they’re fear everything is a trap. As soon as someone Boris considers an enemy suggests something, he’ll disagree to avoid looking like he’s not in charge.
It will be his undoing.
There's also the flipside effect where a management consultant, who Boris and those within the bunker regard as having the wisdom of the gods, tell them something then they automatically believe it, without maybe questioning the motivations of the organisation presently being paid several squillion pounds of public money on a rolling basis, with no clauses in place re: deliverables
It would protect those at most risk, but allow the rest of society to function.
It would kill thousands and cripple large parts of our society, especially in health care. If I was a hospital worker, and we took the misguided path of letting this virus get out of control, but locking away the identified vulnerable, I think I'd be calling for strike action to draw attention to the risk we as a society are willing to pass on to them so that we can "function" more normally.
This is becoming the route that a few more people in the Scientific world are suggesting.
Very few. Unless you're referring to the micky mouse letter (signed by Micky Mouse and his friends) that the media got unduly excited about last week.
We need to shield the identified vulnerable and keep transmission rates down, to protect lives and function as a society.
binners
Full MemberThats a full 2 week ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown in Wales then
Sounds like it really is a full lockdown too.
It's really not a full lockdown. Just slightly lockier down than the non-lockdown elsewhere.
Actually, have to say I feel like the Scottish government has made a pretty gigantic ****up with this, they're pitching the current restrctions as a "reset" when it's not got any chance of doing that. It'll move things in the right direction but "reset" "circuit breaker" etc are all terms you can't just throw about, because if you use them once and don't get the results that people expect, you're screwed.
I think the scottish measures are likely to achieve what the scottish government wants them to, and calling it a reset might help with that, but it's using up a one-use tool along the way. I don't get it, it's exactly the sort of mistake they've seen others do and have mostly avoided.
We need to shield the identified vulnerable and keep transmission rates down, to protect lives and function as a society.
Completely agree with you. It needs to be a combination of the two.
But whats the end game to this?
Normal* isnt going to come back for at least 18 months.
6 Months to have a vaccine
6 months to manufacture and vaccinate
6 months to see if its worked
Lockdown the whole country for that amount of time?
Wales will be a test case for this approach, so we'll see what affect it has in the next 3 weeks.
*life as it was in 2019
Since mid-September, with the exception of 70+ and Year12 to 24, they have all been growing exponentially with a uniform doubling time. One can debate why there was initial growth in the Year2 youngest group, then a leveling off and subsequent rise. It's possible they were catching it from older siblings. Or not.
Just decided to take my temp to get a baseline for future reference….35.7!
That can’t be right can it? Unless I’m a lizard?
Mine (and my daughters) are usually 35.6, so I just take that as a reference point - so anything above 36 I'd count as feverish for her. Oddly didn't seem to matter whether it was an ear one or under the tongue
But whats the end game to this?
Every time the government puts off the action required, it increases the eventual action that will be required. A more drastic “end game” is avoidable by early pre-emptive action. Act late, act harder, for longer.
I have no idea what the government sees as the end game. React and wait? Wait and react?
Temperature / fever. 36.9 is the average normal temperature. You can only get an accurate reading with an internal thermometer 🙂 ( as ear thermometers are often badly used and skin thermometers innacurate in that your skin can be cooler than your core)
Here we do not consider anything below 38 as a fever as people can run slightly warmer or cooler and you also get slight variations depending on things like ambient temperature or if you have been exercising
Personally anything below 38 I would not be concerned unless you have other symptoms
Normal* isnt going to come back for at least 18 months.
6 Months to have a vaccine
6 months to manufacture and vaccinate
6 months to see if its worked
I think that's a bit pessimistic.
I get a little insight as my Wife will be part of the mass vaccination team when it's ready, it's currently gearing up .
I'm sure when it starts the papers will complain, sell the unusual and tragic as the norm and lots and lots of people will cry they're being left to fend for themselves because they won't be getting it in the first, second, third or even forth phase - but the speed of deployment (relative to the scale of the job) will be jaw-dropping.
P-Jay, I hang on to your information these days, always good to hear.
As Patrick Vallance dryly stated a while back "got to have a vaccine first". I hope the AZ one works. I'm not expecting sterile immunity, but evidence of a solid antibody response and some protection would be a start. Plenty of others coming too. But I do believe that 18mo is a reasonable timeframe.
Will widespread vaccination stop Covid altogether? What will the world look like ‘post jab’?
I'll take our NHS staff not be knocked out by the virus as the medium term win... the "big" picture for vaccines can come later.
No. In a worst-case scenario I expect it will boost protective immunity leading to a reduced severity of infection. In a best case scenario, sterile protective immunity from infection but probably waning over time. Protection for the immunocompromised (who can't be vaccinated easily) will come from antibodies and perhaps herd immunity if a sterile vaccine is produced with high protection for others. Frequency of vaccination is of course unknown. Annual would be my guess, given together with influenza. It won't be eradicated as per the other four seasonal coronaviruses, but the young will grow old and carry some degree of past exposure with them. I'm optimistic, especially given the efforts and resource thrown at this. The timescale is breathtaking.
Anagallis posted this two days ago.
anagallis_arvensis
Free Member150 deaths today, 80 a week ago!
Today's numbers (modulo random Excel bugs in PHE's reporting) are 80, and 67 yesterday (weekends always low though). 7 day moving average has been flat the last day or two.
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Of course, it's entirely possible that it will pick up again.
Will widespread vaccination stop Covid altogether? What will the world look like ‘post jab’?
I don't think any experts have made too many promises about it.
As I understand it, there are already multiple variations of Covid19, but so far the vaccines have been effective on all of them.
In theory if we're able to vaccinate 70% or so of the population we can achieve heard immunity and it will be eradicated in time. They would really love to achieve this in the UK by Sept 21 to avoid another winter surge.
This is all a best case though. The vaccine may not provide life-long protection, in fact it probably won't, so people may need boosters, that may be in the form of an annual mass vaccination like flu, or a travel vaccine depending on how it's handled globally.
Human nature being what it is, a lot of the goodwill talk of March is largely gone, I suspect nations will use their trade might to hoard vaccines, especially if Trump is re-elected, although pfizer has said they won't be applying for emergency approval of their vaccine before the 3rd week in November... interesting timing... they've also already produces hundreds of thousands of doses in preparation, claiming they could produce as many as 100m doses by the end of the year and 1.3bn next year.
If we vaccinate the world it may be totally eradicated, but is there more money in letting it spread throughout the developing world so you can keep selling an annual vaccine?
Good mapping site from ICL
[url= https://i.ibb.co/wCQ8Q4k/ICL-covid-map.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.ibb.co/wCQ8Q4k/ICL-covid-map.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
Today’s numbers (modulo random Excel bugs in PHE’s reporting) are 80, and 67 yesterday (weekends always low though). 7 day moving average has been flat the last day or two.
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Of course, it’s entirely possible that it will pick up again.
There is a repeatable daily pattern in the numbers due to reporting logistics.
Monday is always low.
Last Monday was 50 deaths so we have a 60% increase at 80 this Monday.
If that 60% increase follows through to tomorrow’s deaths where we had 143 last Tuesday (Tuesday is always high), We could sadly pass the 200 deaths in a day milestone. (229 tomorrow based on a 60% increase)
You can’t really infer much looking at day to day trends.
I like it when TiRed says he’s optimistic. Gives me real hope for the future. Had my ‘ordinary’ flu jab last week at a ‘drive through’ jab clinic! took 3 mins from the time I drove in, to driving out. Brilliant set up.
Ireland gone back into almost full lock down, Level 5 in their system (the worst), all non essential retail to close, people only allowed 5km from home but schools to remain open.