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I think you're probably right, dpfr. I thought I'd found the answer to a question that interests me if you look back at some of my previous contributions. That is, how does the actual infection rate in the community compare with the new cases published which is just the confirmed positive tests.
The real number is clearly bigger because they tell a lot of contacts they don't need testing, A-A of this parish for example, some people don't go for a test, there a still false negatives in the tests, many people have no idea they should go for a test because they're asymptomatic, some people think they need a test but can't get one. 10 times did seem a lot and is no doubt too high but there's multiplier that needs to be used, it's just that we don't know what it is.
And still no official word from government after their kite-flying exercise on Thursday in the Times.
Dominic Cummings is still happily governing by focus group, it appears.
Following the science? Following the newspaper headlines, more like.
It’s criminal negligence
600 admissions today will be 90-150 deaths next weekend. We don’t know the ratio of new infections to admissions. If it is 1%, which is a guess, that would be 60k new infections a few days ago. If it’s 3%, that’s 20k/day. Compare that with estimates from ONS and REACT gives you a reasonable ball park figure.
The 10x new cases is the number of people infected. 5x new admissions is number in hospital.
And I quote.
During the most recent week (25 September to 1 October 2020), we estimate there were around 3.16 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 2.53 to 4.19) in the community population in England, equating to around 17,200 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 13,800 to 22,900).
There is no magic here.
the govt have lost the North of the country for a generation now.
I'm not convinced that your belief in voters' masochism being so limited is justified. I fear that next time around the voters will still be tugging their forelocks and voting for the masters upstairs.
Has anyone established where the virus is reaching the vulnerable age groups? One has to wonder if it would have been cheaper to simply pay them all to stay at home for a couple of years rather than all the furlough schemes and economical losses. I get that there are healthcare and social care workers who are in regular contact with these age groups but where are those people catching the virus?
One has to wonder if it would have been cheaper to simply pay them all to stay at home for a couple of years
Check out the report alternative Sage did on this last week. It’s far more people effected and far more expensive than people seem to think… and far from feasible even if we did want to pay for it and were happy to lock so many people away.
Check out the report alternative Sage did on this last week. It’s far more people effected and far more expensive than people seem to think… and far from feasible even if we did want to pay for it and were happy to lock so many people away.
I'll have a look. Surely though it's not that different to what we currently have in northern locked down areas as nobody is allowed to visit friends or family indoors or in their garden anyway.
Well now...
I, along with 15 odd other people, have just been kicked out of my local bar by council officials backed up by a riot van and a number of police officers.
No warning, no reason given, just drink up and leave now.
This is a bar that has followed every rule, enforced every behaviour, stuck every sticker, put up every plexi glass screen, every hand sanitiser...
No cases traced to the bar...
All socially distanced, yes?
Tables of 4 people max, spread out as far as the space allowed.
App used to log in to the destination.
...and the police, when asked if we could finish our drinks said 'you can take them over the road to the neighbouring pub'.
So everyone did.
WTF.
Well now…
I, along with 15 odd other people, have just been kicked out of my local bar by council officials backed up by a riot van and a number of police officers.
No warning, no reason given, just drink up and leave now.
This is a bar that has followed every rule, enforced every behaviour, stuck every sticker, put up every plexi glass screen, every hand sanitiser…
No cases traced to the bar…
Curious to know what law was being broken, if no law has been broken and the police would not state what law was being broken, does the owner of the pub not simply just ask the police to leave their private property?
I don't know how the thing works, there was a chat between the Landlord and the Police and he came in and said drink up, we are being shut down.
It appeared that the council officer was the responsible person; whether this is done through the licensee laws via the council?
Meh, 15 middle aged ladies and gentlemen on a Sunday afternoon; pissed off.
Right or wrong that is hardly the kind of behaviour from the authorities that will get the public back on side with the life restrictions we are under. Stuff like that just further undermines acceptance of the situation.
While I accept how badly the government has handled this means that a lot of people will ignore the new restrictions, please don't be one of those people. However angry and frustrated we are, Rule #1 has to apply before anything else. I want my kids to be able to see their vulnerable grandparents down south at some point in 2021, not seen them since Christmas.
That. x2
Meh, 15 middle aged ladies and gentlemen on a Sunday afternoon; pissed off.
Presumably whatever caused the action hadn’t occurred while you were there… more likely to be Friday or Saturday night, no?
Given that I'll be dragged back into working on ITU pretty soon, I'm the last person on earth to be messing about and ignoring any rules.
But kicking me out of a pub?
With a half done crossword?
I think we all know what kind of a trick that is...
sounds like that shutdown is nowt to do with CV19 (from this uninformed distant viewpoint)
But it won’t be about you or your crossword, it’ll be about the pub/bar.
just how bad were you doing with the crossword?
But it won’t be about you or your crossword, it’ll be about the pub/bar.
Do you want me to get all sarcastic about this? I know.
I also know that the rate of infection in my bit of the town is almost the lowest of all, yet 2 pubs have been shut down. The parts of town with no pub going population seem to be the places with the problem.
I see this in terms of socio-economic factors, others may not be as subtle.
just how bad were you doing with the crossword?
Really badly; some weeks it appears to be a goer, some weeks... 🙂
[1] Crow bottoms out a year after maturity (7)?
I'm not a cryptic type of chap, nor is my general knowledge good enough for the jumbo crossword. I always get stuck on some Italian composer or the wife of the man whose daughter married some poet from Greece.
I can juggle, badly.
I can't believe I'm being chastised by someone with an OBE...
🙂
...Wait, Covid would be the crow, 19 when it's now 2020...
Covid19?
[1] Crow bottoms out a year after maturity (7)?
Very nice.
Ah come on fellas, I don't know...
I can’t believe I’m being chastised by someone with an OBE…
[2] Gong begins rigid rule adherence (4)
I got thrown out of my pub today, show me some mercy!
Ooh ooh! that's OBEY!
you were right first time 😉 . Bottom is aRse and 18 is the year of maturity. Everyone has had that crow spell-checker moment 😀
Gentlemen, I salute your crosswordiness...
🙂
Ooh ooh! that’s OBEY!
My parents who are late 60s overweight & series of health conditions, said yesterday theyd rather just risk it instead of going back into lockdown again
They are Johnson fanboys
If Johnson orders Liverpool & Merseyside into lockdown tomorrow there's going to be some trouble, he's really not a popular fellah up there!
It's a skill I've never developed.
In other news, the gossip is that the pub was closed down due to a lack of distancing between tables, which ... I can sort of see... but is a feature of the place which cannot be changed without some major structural work.
Again, the word on the streets is that we/they are all being closed down on Wednesday anyway so I guess it's all academic at the moment.
If Johnson orders Liverpool & Merseyside into lockdown tomorrow there’s going to be some trouble, he’s really not a popular fellah up there!
Have they not realised it isn't Johnson ordering them back in, it's him finally and grudgingly responding to the desperate entreaties of anyone looking at the figures for ICU bed availability in the region?
Have they not realised it isn’t Johnson ordering them back in, it’s him finally and grudginly responding to the desperate entreaties of anyone looking at the figures for ICU bed availability in the region?
Well as Johnson famously said, scousers have a victim complex 😜
Its not that people don't appreciate the situation, the problem is that trust between the public & government is degraded
Everyone was surprised how well people adhered to lockdown 1st time round, at least then everyone was in the same boat, regional lockdowns now are going to be harder to enforce
Just look at Crikeys Crossword rage!
TiRed, congratulations, and thanks for your posts as many others have already written. Good science presented in an understandable way has really helped in a world gone TITSUP.
🙂
One day, one perfect day, I'll get it all.
I may have lots of time on nights in ITU...
edit; could that be
3)Vertical mammaries (6)?
Sorry Crikey. Total Inability To Support Usual Performance.😬
😄
I'm like a
4) Sausage dog in deep water (7,3,2,2,5)
RE the pub closure:
I've shut 2 drinking establishments in the last week, on both occasions the issues were found the day before (and yes they were bad with one being given an improvement notice a couple of weeks prior) the difference being I told the establishments that I would be there the next day and they would be shut so they knew what was coming.
So, Tired, while you have been arseing about with crossword puzzles, Trump has only gone and invented a vaccine !!
but is a feature of the place which cannot be changed without some major structural work
We have some tiny pubs here that have no way of enabling social distancing… so they are closed… will they be getting help from the government?!? Will they arse. The government’s policies on pubs are worse while they keep them open… because the likes of Wetherspoons will survive, and small pubs that can’t adapt will be crushed. I fear what will be left of the great British pub by next spring… whether they face another period of closures or not. I bloody love pubs… but I’m staying away from them.
Am I being a dumbass in not understanding how this gets to be a Northern issue? Why so many cases in a chunk of the country versus the south east eg?
We were behind with the first peak, and national restrictions lifted too early for up here.
[ an opinion/supposition, not a fact ]
It's difficult.
I stay away from any kind of crowded place; ironically the most interaction I have with people is at work in a hospital and the closest contact (other than Mrs Crikey!) I've had for 7 months is in full PPE when those nursey ladies feel the need to give me a hug.
I've had numerous conversations with people in the pub trade and the overwhelming feeling is of a creeping despondency, a realisation that they are living on borrowed time because they are an obvious and publicity friendly target.
My limited understanding of the situation is that small pubs are probably not likely to be major sources of cross infection, yet they are acutely sensitive to shutdown.
Although I share the feeling that we are governed by chimps, I also appreciate that the situation is such that, here, now, I would struggle to balance an economy and the health of the population in any way that would be supported by everyone.
I dunno. This is a novel disease and the times they are a changin'.
Am I being a dumbass in not understanding how this gets to be a Northern issue? Why so many cases in a chunk of the country versus the south east eg?
A lot has to do with universities
Clusters are centred around university halls, not sure why London, Oxford Cambridge don't have higher numbers in there's, better online teaching, London certainly doesn't have the same massive blocks of student accommodation you find in other places
There's also a link between poverty & cases, the debt map of the UK overlaps pretty well with current cases rises
Means multi generational housing more likely, also less able to wfh & less savings, means they have to go back to work
We were behind with the first peak, and national restrictions lifted too early for up here.
So was the South West.
Low income is the big wheel in the Midlands and Northern centres I think in conjunction with population density and multi generational occupancy.
The students bit I get. Testing would show infection rates for their population but you’d have thought they would be less likely to be admitted to hospital.
And deprivation I can understand too, however, the overall infection from hospitality appears to be a small slice of the pie, all things considered, so what’s the point in locking it down? Unless it’s where the students go to infect the vulnerable people? And only up north - are there that many more condensed student population Midlands and up vs below?
It would be very interesting to see some stats where the students attending the northern universities are from. It's unlikely they are all local or from within a short distance
Can I interrupt with a quick question guys?
Are there any estimates, nationwide or regional, on actual* infection rates per day rather than confirmed ones?
Cheers guys.
*Obviously estimated as said.
Latest announcement about what to expect tomorrow
https://twitter.com/borisjohnson_mp/status/1315382649985421313?s=21
It’s difficult to do satire at the moment as that’s more than likely bang on
Are there any estimates, nationwide or regional, on actual* infection rates per day rather than confirmed ones?
Cheers guys.
The place to go is either the ONS or the Imperial REACT studies. These are randomised prospective trials that swab thousands of the general public with the help of Mori polling. Then they test the swabs and estimate proportion positive per sampling cycle. Lastly they adjust these rates to local level based on the population breakdown. They are pretty consistent regarding rates of infection. But obviously have a bit of a lag due to the operational aspects.
I posted an analysis of the REACT data on Friday.
Thanks TiRed, I'll go and look at your Friday post, too.
I had a chat with my Mum last night - she's 73 and based in Farnham (nr Guildford).
But we had to have a conversation about: what the rules say, vs what SHE should be doing.
She's given up completely on listening to what the government says, and is instead using her own understanding (and mine) of transmission risk to assess situations on a day to day basis.
The hardest thing seems to be about managing her friends/relatives who want to come and visit - because there's no lockdown (yet), she doesn't want to be "funny about it" if people want to come and visit. I feel like this is the biggest risk to her - somebody will want to pop in and say hello, and she won't tell them no, even though that's what she wants to do.
Sorry - I don't know what my point is here - it just feels like collective and individual complacency are sleepwalking the UK into another crisis
Guardian today:
'It is expected that servicemen and women would be asked to help local councils implement their own tracing schemes to test, identify and locate people who may have the virus.'
It seems they're talking about parallel t and t schemes which don't get combined into the same Excel spreadsheet but it makes it look like you're doing something. The Aussies have had a tiered system throughout and people are clear about its exigencies. The UK government with all its mixed messages, hypocrisy, failures and U-turns has actually given up on t and t and is 'sharing out the responsibility' to councils to share out the blame. An apparently dysfunctional NHS cries out for more privatisation.
On a personal level, we've had a bereavement and my SiLs had a meeting with a funeral director, who himself turned out to be positive. Nobody tracked or traced them and I can only imagine such situations are replicated throughout the country. You just can't believe their numbers, or anything they say actually.
No social distancing at Alton Towers water park yesterday. I don't know whether it was the not having to wear masks that made people drop their guard.
No social distancing at Alton Towers water park yesterday.
Assuming you don’t work there, can I ask why you thought that in the current circumstances it was a good idea to go?
Sure that government has a lot to answer for, but the populous of this thread is not the only set of individuals in the UK that have the wherewithal to act appropriately. We can’t trust the immature teenagers and students not to crowd the bars and get pissed, but surely anyone older than 30 should be making the right decisions here.
Out riding yesterday in a group of 5 and came across some 24 ramblers walking in one group, all of an age where they would be classed as vulnerable, so it may not all be the youngsters fault.
Came across a hunting party - 50-60 strong on Wednesday last week. Whilst they did all look the same, I'm fairly certain they weren't all from the same family...
Apparently 'rambling' can be exempt from the rule of hands face space as 'organised sport', provided it is one of those events properly led by an angry buffer with a map around his neck.
But yes, it's ridiculous, isn't it?
EDIT: Hunting is also exempt. Although I'm sure there has to be a limit to how many toffs you can cram into a butt.
Out riding yesterday in a group of 5 and came across some 24 ramblers walking in one group, all of an age where they would be classed as vulnerable, so it may not all be the youngsters fault.
Allowed up to 30, outside, with proper covid certification.
The RA got their shit sorted and got got organised.
It seems the new government plan to get "the people" blamed for spreading covid, rather than government mishandling is working.
As is the Trump-esque "blame the Mayors" distraction. He did it with he State Governors, they will do it to the local Mayors.
Meanwhile, Hancocks (allegedly) still getting pissed on the public purse in the evenings.
Came across a hunting party – 50-60 strong on Wednesday last week. Whilst they did all look the same, I’m fairly certain they weren’t all from the same family…
Aren't they all inbred 😉
It is breaking the rules, but outdoor transmission is v low, so it isn't terrible (other than being a bloodsport that has no place in society imho) unless your dogging most outside stuff is a lot safer than indoor.
Surely the localised model is Germany, it seems to have worked very well there, tho their federal system is well established
PHE was created a few years ago to do the opposite and centralise power away from LAs
Our t&t system is also entirely centralised Serco have an ex Tory MP as CEO so they are obviously going to get the contracts for this despite their record of fraud and failure.
My worry is that the control freakery at the centre of government won't be able to relinquish power enough to let local people from local towns act independently
Announcement at 6pm tonight, Boris, Sunak and Whitty. Oliver Downing announcing on the news the aim is to get it back under control by Christmas, even if that means hard measures now.
We'll see.
Assuming you don’t work there, can I ask why you thought that in the current circumstances it was a good idea to go?
While I agree with the sentiment and wouldn't have done such a trip myself, places like Alton Towers, and pubs for that matter, are open on the basis that numbers will be limited by space, and social distancing will be in place.
Idiots that can't follow the rules should be asked to leave, and if the venue can't control it's customers it should be closed - and in those circumstances, I'd question how much tax payers support it deserves.
Just my opinion. While we can blame the government for all the crap handling, businesses and individuals have a responsibility to do their bit. That's not passing the buck, that's how any society works.
Listening to Steve Rotheram just interviewed this morning, adding to what Andy Burnham said last week, it sounds like the Northern Mayors and council leaders know what's coming - the transfer of blame onto them for the government's incompetence. More responsibilities with no financial package to support them.
But their language is hardening and they really are genuinely angry. With very good reason. He readily made the comparison with the mid 80's with regard to the relationship between central government and the northern regions. The phrase he used was 'we refuse to just roll over' and have things imposed on them.
My worry now is that Cummings thrives on confrontation, creating enemies to divide people, and it would suit this government to start a conflict at the moment as a distraction from a rising infection rate and its own obvious failures. I truly believe they are cynical enough to do that
It's all part of the "managed decline" master plan.
Even my mum- who has COPD and heart failure- is starting to fall into the "Bleh another lockdown what's the point" camp. Just from sheer fatigue and mixed messaging and frustration and depression with the whole mess. And that's despite being in Scotland, if we were down south I imagine she'd be hosting covid parties for all of her mates that aren't dead yet. She's pretty much at the point where anything that's simple and unequivocal and has similar messaging across the UK gets her attention, but that's not much and it's mostly very basic. And she's no idiot, not by a long way, it's just that she's out of endurance.
(she also may possibly have similtaneously hit the age where you can't resist becoming grumpy and right wing, to be fair)
Ironically, TiRed's honororororisation is the only thing that's made a dent in her lately, now "all that stuff you get off the internet" is officially Wisdom. Even if I didn't get it off TiRed 🙂
Oliver Downing announcing on the news the aim is to get it back under control by Christmas, even if that means hard measures now.
Does that mean we get a Brexshit party to celebrate on the 1st?
'Brexit cures COVID' would make a catchy three-word slogan. Someone should paint that down the side of a bus
I can't think of a worse time to relax any restrictions, the run up to Christmas sounds like a ready made disaster
My worry now is that Cummings thrives on confrontation, creating enemies to divide people, and it would suit this government to start a conflict at the moment as a distraction from a rising infection rate and its own obvious failures. I truly believe they are cynical enough to do that
Bring it on - the North needs reminding who their enemies are - Tories not Europeans.
Watching the medical briefing just now I suspect we'll be going straight into a full lockdown in Greater Manchester as well as Liverpool. It looked very much like they were laying the ground for that
I'm sure they're prepared to do that, no problem. Are they prepared to go further and provide any kind of financial aid for businesses and industry in the area? I'm thinking not. They're shown no inclination whatsoever to do so. So they're just going to let companies go to the wall and unemployment go through the roof.
April is going to look like a breeze compared to this. I do think that Steve Rotherham could be right and that we'll be looking at a rerun of the 80's up here
April is going to look like a breeze compared to this
Much as I don't particularly like or agree with Jezza, his message and politics may be more in vogue by next April, which will entertain me greatly.
The Tories won't keep their inroads into the red wall for much longer.
We were behind with the first peak, and national restrictions lifted too early for up here.
JVT said much the same in this morning’s briefing.
The metro mayors were all saying at the time that it was too early to lift restrictions in the North and that decision was taken based purely on what was happening in London and the South East
They were right