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Well, learning from their mistakes
Personally, I think there’s a deliberate fudge going on. The repeated mistakes smack not of ineptitude but something potentially more Machiavellian. Did someone say ‘herd immunity’?...
It’s the jobs lost, the lives lost, the untold mental health cost to all ages & sexes. The damage to society, whatever choice is made, is going to be grave.
Absolutely true. And minimising that damage is vital. It is the false hope/logic of those suggesting that the damage will be avoided/reduced by lax/late/lesser restrictions now and into this winter that worries me… that idea seems to be gaining more and more support. Delay in the spring cost us dearly in all the ways you say. And it reduced the options and flexibility of the government for the rest of the year. Delays now could make this winter worse in all the ways you say as well, and back the government into a corner. Lack of action is going to be expensive and limit what the government can do… but the government know that much of the public will blame them for the damage directly attributable to restrictions they put in place, but not for the greater damage of not doing so… well, that’s the only explanation I can come to do their current approach.
Daryn, many congratulations and thank you again for you contributions here. Well deserved for your stalwart efforts and calmness amongst - at least speaking for myself - us bunch of flaky reprobates here!
Its lifts me to see you recognised for your work.
Hopefully a vaccine may be available next spring, but it’s probably going to take a year to inoculate those 15,000,000 people.
And that assumes that everyone in that group will take up this offer.How do you convince the population to live like this for another 18 months?
I don't think 15m will count as vulnerable. The clinical assessment was 2.2M people, I'd expect those people to be prioritised. So you might be asking for a lockdown over winter, then maybe another one in late spring/early summer. Even so, a lot of people are going to take some convincing for that. In my circle, there's a couple ready to open back up now but most are preparing for another lockdown (by stocking up on toilet paper and gin).
The repeated mistakes smack not of ineptitude but something potentially more Machiavellian.
The mistakes and incompetence originate from an inability to depart from their rigid free market ideology and individualist beliefs. Covid has forced an ideological right wing conservative government to enact the most leftwing policies since 1945 and they hate every bit of it, and are resisting it at every turn. The result is a complete lack of strategy and forward thinking and confusion and division among the public.
Lack of action is going to be expensive… but he government know that much of the public will blame them for the damage of restrictions they put in place, but not for the greater damage of not doing so… well, that’s the only explanation I can come to do their current approach.
It is the sh1tiest of choices..
I don’t think 15m will count as vulnerable. The clinical assessment was 2.2M people
Check that alternative Sage report. Those at risk who would need to cut themselves off, if the rest of us dropped all restrictions, is a much wider group than those assessed and receiving letters/help earlier this year.
Even so, a lot of people are going to take some convincing for that.
It is the sh1tiest of choices..
It is. It takes a special politician to take the one best for the country, rather than the most popular… and a very rare one to communicate why that is needed, and earn the trust and cooperation of the public need to make it work.
Congratulations, your posts on here, have been the only sane information I’ve found to keep me sane. Keep up the good work !
. It takes a special politician to take the one best for the country, rather than the most popular
This. Sums it up for me. I think Merkel has been that politician. I don’t really do politics and I don’t do the media stuff. But there are no good choices here (cough - Brexit). What is the least bad option? How does one balance the economy and lives? Control not eradication is the aim. Keeping schools open - what else needs to be done to maintain that goal?
Shutting pubs at 10 is very unlikely to be the solution. The science is struggling to say what is.
60000 dead is horrific, it’s higher the US deaths in Vietnam. But it has to be contrasted withe the number of indirect deaths policy us causing now and in the future.
Worth remembering that it's 60,000 with measures in place. Without those measures we were talking 250,000+.
Great news TiRed 👏👏 Not just personally, but for all the people involved with your work as well.
Congrats on the obe daryn.
Do you think regeneron are going to have big enough capacity for manufacturing to provide large enough dose levels?
I suspect other Contract manufacturers will be scaling up, and anyone with a SARS-COV2 antibody will jumpy to the front of the queue. There are huge capacity issues worldwide for bioreactors. Vaccines use the individual as the bioreactor!
Dose is about 2 grams per person.
Amazing news TiRed, most deserved. Now we just need you back on the bike.
Without those measures we were talking 250,000+
Is that the probable direct COVID deaths? If we’d asked our hospitals to deal with that in one big unrestricted wave… the additional deaths for non COVID reasons would also have been much higher.
How is our World Beating Vaccine Manufacturing centre going? Wasn't that announced in Apr/May?
Seems to be progressing well. I think I saw that they gave got preliminary mhra approval.
I know they are recruiting like hell (according to my LinkedIn)
I so want these antibody treatments to work, but if they do that means Trump will get better, and possibly worse 'be proved right' (whether true or not, in the eyes of him / his followers / the wavering voter....)
Aaargghhh, so conflicted!
I assumed the US would buy up all the regeneron for its own citizens, in the same altruistic way they snapped up all the remdesivir
Can other countries produce it independently of the US?
If you have the cell line and some flasks, you can make it in your garage -it’s brewing after all. I’m joking. Sort of. it’s biotechnology not chemistry. There is a fixed supply of global approved bioreactors that make all sorts of clinical antibodies. This will be a big order.
Worth remembering that it’s 60,000 with measures in place. Without those measures we were talking 250,000+.
Dont dispute that and also understand your comment.
The stories are vital when it comes to getting the public (us) to accept short term inconvenience
Trouble is I dont think Johnson and Cummings think beyond the superficial. It wasn't long ago Johnson was saying it would all be over by Christmas. I still think re-opening hospitality and the Eat Out to Help Out schemes were foreseeable mistakes, not so much because of an increase in direct transmission as a result, more a the fact it sent a message to many that it was business as usual when it clearly wasn't.
Well done TiRed, nice to see someone who actually contributed getting recognised.
It wasn’t long ago Johnson was saying it would all be over by Christmas.
And that misplaced hubris is so damaging to trust in the government, and measures they have to introduce this winter. The wrong man at the wrong time. We still need to respond to this challenge as a society though. The lack of proper leadership is a serious handicap to that though, for sure.
Congratulations TiRed. Your posts over the last few months have been really helpful. Thank you.
Congratulations TiRed.
You also deserve a special STW award for services to clarity and information.
This will be a big order.
So they'll just license it out and any country can make their own supply?
not so much because of an increase in direct transmission as a result, more a the fact it sent a message to many that it was business as usual when it clearly wasn’t.
Very much this - probably good intentions for the hospitality industry, but it was at that point that the message "2 metres from anyone not in your household/bubble" was completely lost in the noise, and there was a noticeable increase in people not social distancing. And the government's failure to be able to send out two messages at once was compounded by the media focusing on groups of people all sat round a table happily eating and drinking with no thought whatsover as to "are these 8 people from the same household?", just reinforcing the idea that everything was back to normal.
Lazy thinking government and lazy reporting have been a menace throughout the pandemic
Congratulations TiRed
What did I miss? You pregnant again!!!
Well done TiRed and colleagues at GSK.
Yes, well done TiRed!
Respect feller!
Can anyone help me with this? Anyone that has been discharged from one hospital to another is being tested every 4 days ad infinitum. I cannot see the logic in this. there must be some I am sure. I get testing a few times to make sure no false negatives but why is this cohort ( but not the patients who haven't moved hospital) being tested every 4 days?
tj, new introductions to a setting are so much harder to control than endemic infections. In fact it is hard sustain transmission in very small populations without reintroduction. Perhaps they are doing all they can to ensure that an outside case is avoided. If tested positive on first admission and not moved, strict cohorting will already be in place, so testing adds no gain.
These are people who have tested negative before transfer and are then tested every 4 days regardless of status. Not everyone in the unit - only those who have been transferred from the big general hospital are tested every 4 days. I just do not see the value of this being continued ad infinitum. for a couple of weeks yes but I know people who have been tested every 4 days for months despite never having had a positive test.
there must be a rationale but I do not know what it is.
its always possible tho that its managers misinterpreting guidelines I suppose
I'm really pleased to hear about your award TiRed. I've been quietly coming on here for months now to hear your opinion on the situation. You're my 'offical fact checker'.
Glad it's recognised outside of our community.
TiRed's award also adds some gravitas to the stuff he's posting on here as I'm relaying it to advise my parents! 'Some bloke off the interwebs' doesn't hold quite as much clout as 'Second in the OBE list'.
Can other countries produce it independently of the US?
I think if it came to it that the USA was keeping all the REGN-COV2 to itself the rest of the world would wipe its @rse with whatever patents Regeneron had and contract a load of Indian and Chinese companies to produce it.
there must be a rationale but I do not know what it is.
Poorly defined incubation period and asymptomatic infections would be my guess. A positive is easy to deal with.
‘Some bloke off the interwebs’
I try and give an informed and up to date position on the science and events. I don't give confidential information, but it is surprising just how much information is out there, including the source data. If I haven't explained things clearly enough in layman's terms - tell me. Everyone has a right to understanding the position we are in and how much (and how little) we really know.
Congrats on the OBE, must feel brilliant to be recognised for your work especially when its something so worth while.
Nice one TiRed, big congratulations and thanks for all your posts.
I've been lurking in this thread for a while now and just want to add my congratulations on your award. Well done TiRed and thanks for finding the time to keep us informed.
Well done for accepting a gong off the British Empire.
Another one raising a glass to you TiRed - your posts are the reason I keep coming back to this thread.
OBE, Congratulations TiRed, well deserved!
Congrats, TiRed. You’ve been an excellent source of rational, and easy to understand information. Please keep it up. It’s greatly appreciated.
All the best,
Rich
Congratulations TiRed
Congratulations and truly well deserved recognition for the work your doing under such a time of stress - thank you tired - the research you are doing will enable myself to hopefully have a future without shielding.
STW petition to get OBE after your username>
At the start of all of this I did say all models are wrong but some are very useful.
Huge Congrats to TiRed for being the most un-wrongest
😜
Oh and for being a rational voice leading us through the fog of information, misinformation and hysteria.
Chapeau !!!!
TiRed is now part of The Establishment and therefore I will be ignoring him 🙂
Enough now. Back to sums.
I mentioned before that next week’s deaths are predicted by today’s admissions. Up to about 4-500 admissions you can divide by 7. That’s good to within 7 of the likely number. Above that there’s a nice relationship but you’ll need a calculator.
I’ve also written a white paper on whether people would have died anyway because they did not catch flu. Across Europe as a whole, there is little evidence that this is the case. COVID19 has produced genuine excess mortality up to week 35. One predicts that there will be lower influenza mortality this year, but COVID19 will sadly fill its place. We will reach typical annual deaths by mid November this year. Possibly earlier if things go badly in the next few weeks.
I mentioned before that next week’s deaths are predicted by today’s admissions.
They last a bit longer here with 25% of those who are going to die in hospital lasting more than 2 weeks. One or two weeks from people showing first symptoms to entering hsopital and three to four weeks from symptoms to death.
Hospitals are doing better at saving people with only 19% of French hospital admissions ending in death.
Going back to the Spring when we were discussing how long it would take for the confinement to have an impact on the death rate it became apparent there was a longer lag than expected. This lag applies on the way up too. Following the French positive tests, hospital admissions and deaths again shows a lag of a couple of weeks between admission and death rather than a week. This isn't good news as it says the death rates will be regularly back up into three figures within a couple of weeks on the basis of current positive tests and admissions, and it won't be short lived.
He said predicts, not are the same cases. He’s sharing something useful in terms of seeing where we are going from where we are.
Sorry for replying. Good night.
Congrats TiRed and thank you for your contributions. Not contributed to this thread myself but have read yours and everybody else's post's with interest and it has helped me have a broader understanding of how people throughout the country feel. Once again thanks.
Just catching up on this thread while being kept awake due to a house party. Yes, someone has called the police on them!
Well deserved TiRed, good to see someone's hard work in challenging times being recognised. Your posts on here have definitely kept me better informed of what's been going on than I otherwise would have been, even if a lot of it has been above my level of understanding at times. Hopefully your expertise won't be required for too much longer.
I’ve also written a white paper on whether people would have died anyway because they did not catch flu. Across Europe as a whole, there is little evidence that this is the case.
Like to read this if u have a link
how covid interacts with flu season will be interesting
The huge investment in treating covid & sars types illnesses, should hopefully lead to a better understanding & treatments for winter flu
Its sad how we accept that regular flu kills 1000s a year, every 5 years or so completely overwhelming the NHS which has often deadly consequences for other illnesses as they compete for ITU beds
Congrats on the honours, do you get to meet the queen? I dare you to have a coughing fit 😜
Hopefully your expertise won’t be required for too much longer.
If I had to guess, another 18 months to return things to “normal”. By then we will have effective and well-tested therapeutics, protection (vaccination or passive antibodies) and a proper testing facility (maybe not XL based). By the timescales I am used to working to in drug development, this is warp speed. I cannot tell you just how urgently this is being worked on. People have no idea.
For example, my most recent drug approval took thirteen years. It’s just been licensed in the US. It was a novel use for a reasonably old drug even then. I’m even prouder of that one to be honest.
The Joint Biosecurity Centre have now automated the types of analytics that I was producing in a bedroom only four months ago (you’ve seen the regional incidence, I don’t analyse that now). Even Chris Witty now talks about the rate of change of incidence - I call that a win! The data standards have gone from manually created nightly XL sheets to proper data with meaningful variable names. When I started, the ECDC cases and deaths data was really the only information around.
[tl:dr] Things are moving very fast by conventional standards, but people really don’t understand just how complex and slow things are normally! Two years was my first prediction to normality. Not much has changed.
See, that’s clear communication… not blathering on about back to normal by Xmas.
EDIT : I forgot that the “fast testing to end social distancing” trial was supposed be going on at mass events in Salford right now! The gap between that pie in the sky thinking and the reality in that area now is pretty stark.
That link is only a month old. Hubris.
The Joint Biosecurity Centre have now automated the types of analytics that I was producing in a bedroom only four months ago (you’ve seen the regional incidence, I don’t analyse that now). Even Chris Witty now talks about the rate of change of incidence – I call that a win!
It's crazy how little the experts had in front of them to help their judgements in February/March. Which makes the political failures now even greater. We are at the point we locked down completely at last time (which was widely considered a week or so too late), with no plans to do much more than tinker with hospitality on a local level. And with winter rolling in as well.
My Dad was taken into hospital last night with a high temperature and low oxygen levels. This morning they've done an x-ray of the lungs and said they think it's COVID but the test result isn't back yet. They also apparently told him and his wife that if things get worse they will give palliative care only. He's 87, but reasonably fit - is this standard procedure for people of his age?
My Dad was taken into hospital last night with a high temperature and low oxygen levels.
Nothing I can add but I sincerely hope it works out for the best, for you and your dad.
Anyone thinking Drakeford, followed by Sturgeon, will start the national lockdown ball rolling this week and force our English [s]p[/s]muppet to follow suit?
He’s 87, but reasonably fit – is this standard procedure for people of his age?
Tends to be. A couple of points tho. Its not always and should not be a "treat to the full / no treatment question". Its about the ceiling of care / treatment ie where you draw the line. So he can and should get oxygen and other drugs / IVs to support him but perhaps not go into ITU / be ventilated
The other point is its sometimes a decision made purely on age whereas other factors should be taken into account like fitness, mental capability and so on
People of that sort of age really tend not to do well in ITU / being ventilated. the damage to them from such invasive treatment is something hard to recover from even for someone half their age.
Perhaps you could ask to discuss it with a senior doctor so you can understand the reasons, the actual limits of care they are offering and potential upsides and downsides of treatment. Second hand info is often poor in this sort of situation as its very emotive so the person you are getting the info from may not relay it to you well. You might have to fight his corner
last aspect is that ITU looks like its going to be under great pressure again - thus needs to be rationed and reserved for those most likely to benefit
Hope that helps a bit. Good luck to him and the rest of the family
Thanks TJ, that's really helpful. I suspect that getting to speak to a senior doctor might be a challenge, but I'll give it a try.
When do the ONS statistics assume a someone case of COVID has finished? For example in my local area the statistics say there has been an increase in cases of +242 but is this a net increase or is it adjusted for how many people have 'finished' their COVID infection? Surely that has a huge impact on the whole data set and R number/cases per 100k.
onewheelgood. I have this with my own father. Despite being fit enough to walk 10 miles and to climb small hills because of existing long term conditions he would never survive ventilation and even a moderate covid infection will kill him. Its tough but thats the reality
A senior doc should speak to you even if only over the phone. Be polite but insistent and ask questions rather than demand things ( sorry that sounds patronising but hopefully you know what I mean)
Edit - pm me if you want to discuss off forum
Cases are reported as new cases. We don’t record recoveries. Very roughly, the number of people that are infected I s about that number times 10. The number infectious about half of that.
Anyone thinking Drakeford, followed by Sturgeon, will start the national lockdown ball rolling this week and force our English pmuppet to follow suit?
You mean exactly the same as the first time? Pretty much guaranteed.
The pubs and restaurants are all fully booked here today. We’re all expecting a full lockdown again tomorrow
Good luck with trying to enforce it.
There’s real and justified anger now, up here, that we’re the ones paying the price for months of serial incompetence and corruption in Westminster from this gang of useless, pocket-lining shysters.
Leveling up? **** off!
Lisa Nandy said she's not felt this anger and resentment towards the government since the 80's and she's right. That's exactly what it's starting to feel like. We're being abandoned to our fate by a Tory government again.
https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1315221633708232704?s=21
It's not even just the bars and pubs that will suffer if they close, it's the surrounding industries like taxi firms, bus companies, take out establishments in city centres, even things like fashion and clothing companies as the longer this lack of socialising goes on the less people will be buying new outfits for nights out, jewelry, accessories and the like. Has nobody in the government really considered the knock on effects?
There’s real and justified anger now, up here, that we’re the ones paying the price for months of serial incompetence In Westminster
Rossendale elect a Tory MP (who actually lives in Wales) for purely selfish reasons, and are only becoming frustrated at the serial incompetence in Westminster now?
It's honestly looking like we've got a clueless, flailing government that now has no idea whatsoever what to do (who'd have thunk it?).
They've chucked billions at private companies that have spectacularly failed to deliver (who'd have thunk it?) and now they're completely devoid of any ideas. Plus, they've now torched all goodwill and any hope of large scale public cooperation, due to their sheer incompetence
God only knows what nonsense they'll come up with tomorrow. Nothing good, that's for sure.
The measures needed to go in at the end of last week not next! Utter nonsense to say "there will be restictions in a weeks time" - everyone just goes out and makes merry and how many more infections did that create?
@binners - tomorrow's message will be that the people have once again been complacent and let everyone down. The Govt is doing is it's utmost but silly poor unwashed Northern oiks have let us all down. How many of them even know where Skelmersdale, Todmorden or Batley are?
The reality is that this bunch of idiots are simply out of their depth and have no clue what life is like outside of their privileged surroundings. Wit is multiplicative in their case, two half-wits give you a quarter-wit etc. Etc. There's over 30 in Cabinet meetings!!
I'm actually starting to admire little Matty Handjob's resilience in that he gets wheeled out to spout some shite and gets pummeled from every angle. Yet he still takes the punches. He genuinely has no idea what a pathetic individual he is and still thinks he's correct. I feel sorry for his home town as when he's in Westminster the village is deprived of its idiot.
The measures needed to go in at the end of last week not next!
As a minimum.
Lisa Nandy nailed it in that interview, the govt have lost the North of the country for a generation now. The win in the general election means nothing to them now and it will be the tipping point for the rest of the country too. Any new lockdown is doomed to fail purely down to the govts complete incompetence. I know I'm in Wales and we've had a certain amount of flexibility over out local restrictions so don't have direct experience of what the North has gone through but even from watching on the sidelines it's obvious you've all be properly screwed over in favour of the South. Any anger is entirely justified.
Another 600+ admissions to hospital.
the govt have lost the North of the country
Dont think their geographical strategy will help them when the voting starts, I don’t see the South saving their bacon. This government has been the most inept government in history whilst pissing away public funds tho thier friends before the shooting starts. It’s been a grandiose retirement plans at the expense of tens of thousands of lives.
You can tell we are expecting a London lockdown, my road is packed with family vehicles and people popping around for a Sunday gathering while they still can. I’ve not been near a pub but I can guess the attendance levels.
Cases down this weekend but wasn’t it always? Let’s wait until Tuesday....
Cases are reported as new cases. We don’t record recoveries. Very roughly, the number of people that are infected I s about that number times 10. The number infectious about half of that.
If I do the numbers on that for France at the current 20 000 daily new cases:
I get 10 x 20 000 = 200 000 per day ("that number times ten") and 40 million in 200 days. ie. enough for the infamous herd immunity by next April.
That's quicker than any guesstimate I've seen to date.
I don't think that's what he is saying. I think he's saying that if you are running at 20 k cases/day you probably have about 200 k cases in total in your population, not that your true infection rate is 200 k per day .