....and we still need to add in care homes and community deaths?
….and we still need to add in care homes and community deaths?
This chap is running a model to account for excess deaths.
https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1253710920024555522
I think he’s only modelled the first wave. Not enough known beyond that to model I’d guess?
40k excess deaths would be a good outcome over historic 10-year data. I’m less interested in the COVID19 deaths as there is lots of debate about who has and has not died of COVID. But no debate about whether they died. These deaths may or may not be recorded accurately. What will matter is the total number of deaths recorded in 2020. This will be about 40k higher than the 10-year average and a statistical anomaly.
For reference and some perspective, 20k might be a bad influenza year and 40k would be a pandemic influenza year. Now that says oh isn’t it just flu?
The answer is a resounding NO! Because those projected 40k deaths are in the presence of social distancing. If we find about 5-10% have actually had it, and we would expect about 50% would get it without, the. Deaths saved will be up to 5x the COVID deaths.
I (educatedly) guess that we will have saved a minimum of 100k deaths. The vast majority being in people over 45. It’s a bit early for this message from the govt because they don’t have that prevalence data for any finger in the wind sums. But the logic is very sound. Social distancing may have saved one of your elderly relatives, or indeed yourself. It did not save your kids.
[TL:DR] 40k extra deaths this year would be good news, rather than about 100-200k extra deaths without social distancing.
Thank TiRed never seen statistics be so affirmative 😀
Yes thanks TiRed.
I don't say much, but do keep coming back to this thread to follow your input.
Thank you.
So based on the relatively slow drop in new infections, how long do we think we have until some level of easing?
End June?
Judging by the fact that kids are having a game of football on my street it already has.. in people's minds at least 🙈
So based on the relatively slow drop in new infections
I haven’t looked at testing for a few days has it actually increased?
If so detected cases might be misleading.
It hasn't increased just dropped from ~5000 down to ~3000 over 3 weeks, honestly I would have thought the drop would have been faster, but yes true the real rate of new infections 3 weeks ago may well have been a lot higher due to lack of detection
We normally think five half-lives for decay to nothing for drugs (1/32 or 3%). From the peak about April 8th, that’s 10 weeks. I would not expect much of a significant change in policy for lockdown until week 23-25 (end of June). Then a staged return to September.
I don’t advise policy btw. But one observation I note is that people who are less familiar with numbers (stats and modelling) put more store on the absolute numbers than those who do. Decisions must be robust to assumptions, so these back of envelope calculations are reasonable. Deciding when to relax constraints really is only accurate to about a couple of weeks. That’s life.
TiRed, we have deaths being measured in different ways....of covid-19, with covid-19, excess deaths.
Which, do you believe, is the most reliable - and appropriate - to use?
BTW - thanks, again, for your input and contribution; it cuts through some of the noise.
The only mortality measure that matters is cumulative deaths by week. This should be compared carefully to historic data. I posted that comparison and the data is unequivocal.
It is THE most reliable data by far. All deaths are registered by law. It is released weekly with a delay of 10 days. The next release will be April 28.
In the meantime, we have daily data for hospital deaths, COVID deaths, deaths in nursing homes, etc. The official ONS statistics have added a COVID 19 code to the already present ICD10 code for respiratory diseases. They also include the five year data (which misses swine the flu year)
To estimate total deaths one uses the hard data from excess deaths and an extrapolation of current death rate and half-life. We will only know the true mortality in December.
BTW, the same methodology was used to convict Harold Shipman. Comparison of one practice to historic control data.
This is worth reading for some context. Alan Johnson knows what he’s talking about. I hope they’ve been talking to him.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
The WHO has been hopeless for most of this. I don’t mean this as some sort of Trumpesque statement; just look at everything they’ve said from the beginning, note where they’ve been inaccurate, and make up your own mind.
Then, look at their leader: someone who has been a minister in a dodgy, repressive government and is not a medical doctor. Ask yourself how he got there and what sort of lobbying went on to achieve that and you’ll probably have a little bit less faith in them as an organisation.
JP
I think Shipman was convicted on the hard evidence but his patients' death rates were compared to historic controls to derive what is considered a fairly reliable estimation of his number of victims. IIRC a disproportionate number of deaths under his watch had the afternoon as the time of death on the death certificate which fitted his MO of injecting his victims with morphine in the afternoon.
The WHO has been hopeless for most of this.
They were late to act. Our government even later.
If the first was ‘hopeless’, what word should we use for the second?
Indeed that is true, but estimation of total deaths was based on statistics as strongly supportive evidence and an attempt to gauge the overall magnitude. Needless to say he didn’t keep records.
10yr U.K. data is the best I have. It needed some data processing. Anyone using 5yr comparisons are just working with the current ONS spreadsheet.
Seriously, thank goodness for this thread. I've learnt far more from it then any other medium. Just as importantly, learnt what I need to filter out from all the "noise out there."
TiRed, your input and analysis is not always pleasant to read because of its very nature but I'm always glad I did.
As a slight aside to the main discussion going on, and huge thanks to TiRed for his input, it’s fascinating and very enlightening, is very much appreciated.
Anyway, a couple of weeks ago I read in the local paper that the town council were re-opening a lovely park a little ways off the town centre, John Coles Park, in Chippenham, which I was glad to hear - it’s a lovely park, and just a nice place for people locally to take their little kids on their bikes, away from the roads. Predictably, it said there were comments against it on Fb, one woman saying it was disgusting and irresponsible, and she wouldn’t be taking her children there!
So today, after doing a bit of shopping in town, as part of my extended walk home, I thought I’d go that way, see if it was open, and it was. She was right to be disgusted, it was packed with irresponsible people letting their brats run amok!
Ahh going by Facebook thou the parents were probably queuing in a B&Q car park desperate to get diy materials ,inflatable jacuzzis or bedding plants.
Piers Corbyn up to his usual shenanigans...
I'm surprised he's not conflated Covid-19 with Greta Thunberg
Does anyone know if there is a logical reason why 'home' deaths and deaths in care homes are not being recorded? Is this a political reason or a logistical one? Were these deaths counted as part of Italian and Spanish Covid19 related deaths?
Thanks in advance.
Tired explained that it's the standard WHO method of counting deaths.those confirmed in hospital only, which makes sense
But some countries have added them in believe Italy has now?, Spain hadn't but I think they were going to?
Tired, ignoring WHO reporting criteria, why doesn’t the government simply add on the number of official deaths outside hospitals where Covid was put on the death certificate? Each evening on the news the public get “x deaths total today but this does not include care homes or deaths in the community”. Why can’t they just add on the number released so far up to April 10th even if it still probably under estimates the true number? Easy for the public to digest rather than number of deaths above a ten year average.
One issue with the non-hospital deaths is that you are asking GPs to ascertain cause with no testing, often without a clear idea of the symptoms. You'll get some as CV19, and some with CV19 as a contributory factor, that weren't CV19 at all. Plus there are those where it was cause/factor and that's been diagnosed as something else. So, lots of room for error.
Of course, on top of all of that, the numbers dying is higher than apparently explained by CV19. Its likely that we won't know all the numbers until next year.
Why can’t they just add on the number released so far up to April 10th even if it still probably under estimates the true number?
I thought they were already doing this. The Scottish Government is publishing these numbers.
So based on the relatively slow drop in new infections, how long do we think we have until some level of easing?
Judging for the view from my balcony in W London the lockdown has now ended. Lots of pedestrians and non-stop traffic.
I would not expect much of a significant change in policy for lockdown until week 23-25 (end of June). Then a staged return to September.
I've thought the same for the last week or two just purely going on what other countries are dealing with before us and making it fit with our normal activities in normal times. I've thought more along the lines of easing up of restrictions mid July so that everyone can have some sort of summer break ready for the major restrictions (bar social distancing) to be lifted full just as the schools go back. I've based that on your analysis on here so thanks for taking the time to post it up!
Mind you Boris is back on Monday so everything could change. There's a lot of lobbying going on by big business to let them re-open, the pressure from them could swing the direction we take.
Tired explained that it’s the standard WHO method of counting deaths.those confirmed in hospital only, which makes sense
Same day reporting can only be hospital deaths, if any degree of accuracy and consistency is required. Only looking back can we get a reasonable number for all deaths. When assessing the true cost of this in the future, then ‘all’ deaths will be useful figures, but when tracing the course of a pandemic in ‘real time’ hospital deaths is the only reasonably reliable figure that can be used.
There’s a lot of lobbying going on by big business to let them re-open
Lots of chatter about Tory big donors putting the pressure on. I’m hoping that Johnson’s recent brush with the virus will help him place more importance on public health than short term dwindling dividends.
Chris Witty is always a good listen at the press conferences. He is far more interested in “All Cause Mortality” than purely Covid deaths when formulating strategy. There is no point saving 10k, but causing 15k extra elsewhere.
Judging for the view from my balcony in W London the lockdown has now ended. Lots of pedestrians and non-stop traffic.
Same here. Almost constant traffic flowing past on a sunday morning- where are they all going? Given that it takes, what, 2-4 weeks for deaths to occur, will be see a major spike again in late May if people are taking the piss?
Same day reporting can only be hospital deaths, if any degree of accuracy and consistency is required. Only looking back can we get a reasonable number for all deaths
This. Go the gold standard, then infer back. And 40k excess deaths would be a great number based on what is known about flu. I linked to the data for your to read. This is official mortality data and that's why it has such a lag.
The noise associated with daily death rate is not really helpful for long-distance forecasts. Now the parametric models that predict further have some validity. In the exponential phase they did not.
Do you know much about the methodology for how influenza deaths are calculated each year, or how the same was done for swine flu?
If you look at the spreadsheet you will see something called an ICD10 code. These are a standardized means of classifying disease (lack of breath doesn't cut it) and, of course, cause of deaths. The ICD10 codes for respiratory causes are listed as reason for death. They've added a new one for COVID19 as it is a new disease. That's where you find Influenza deaths. Since we don't routinely screen flu infections outside hospitals with PCR either, you can't pull out exact influenza unless tested. That hospital data is likely available for confirmed cases - and they miss the vast majority of infections of course. Does this sound at all familiar? 😉
Raaaab stating that school's that are open are practicing social distancing. Anyone been in and seen this? I was in last week and no social distancing, soap arrived late in the day and there was hand sanitizer but just for adults.
Just my musings. There seems to have been a higher level of younger (relatively - 40/50s) and medically fit people affected in the uk than expected.
Could that be a mixture of:
1. Care homes not being part of the stats.
2. We might actually be shielding our parents/vulnerable. (
She added: “People have been making it clear that people coming from long distances to enjoy our local beauty spots that are not local to them are not welcome … There have been signs put up, we’ve had people calling cyclists out. All sorts of little things, nothing that is criminal but people really making it clear how anxious they feel."
People abusing cyclists, both verbally and by aggressive driving. Resonates with some STWers experience here. Amazing how quickly a society turns nasty once there is a perceived external threat.
Raaaab stating that school’s that are open are practicing social distancing. Anyone been in and seen this? I was in last week and no social distancing, soap arrived late in the day and there was hand sanitizer but just for adults.
I was in over the holiday, two empty bottles of hand sanitiser, very few kids in, tried to keep them apart but it was impossible. My school is a secondary but we had partnership primary kids too. It was the little ones who just couldnt keep apart.
I really struggle to see how we will open with social distancing given corridors are not 2m wide etc.
The Guardian story seems to be referring to an incident weeks ago (7 April). Some people are knobs unfortunately.
I posted on a different thread yesterday but on the hill out of Croasdale (nr Ennerdale) some halfwit had sprayed 'LOCKDOWN - **** OFF' onto road.
BUT another person had sprayed (in dayglo) 'STAY SAFE - BE KIND and a big heart over the top!!! Most people aren't dicks.
There is no point saving 10k, but causing 15k extra elsewhere
This is a real problem, we have done a very good job of flattening the curve, but it's been at the cost of cancelling many elective surgeries & regular clinics, CRUK reckon we are missing 1000s of new cancers
Colleagues in hospitals saying that non covid departments, including a&e empty but lots of deaths in community or people presenting late, some tragically preventable deaths if people had come in sooner.
Government have started as campaign reminding people that if they are sick they should still got to hospital!
a_a yeah we had a mix of primary and first two years of secondary. On a plus side it looks like the council have actually been using cleaning products instead of the usual bucket if tepid water.
A quick question for those of you in schools working with key worker kids. Are the kids you're supervising from your normal catchment area or are you sent kids from anywhere in your county?
Asking as we're both keyworkers but weren't offered a place in the hub at the end of the road but 20miles away so have to drive past 4 of the 6 hubs in the county to get to the 5th hub. At least we weren't offered a place in the 6th hub which is even further away.
The place we were offered was so useless we turned it down.
A quick question for those of you in schools working with key worker kids. Are the kids you’re supervising from your normal catchment area or are you sent kids from anywhere in your county?
Not sure about others but ours a schools in our Academy Trust, all local. Not sure how the fewer local authority schools are being organised. If the place was offered but was useless it suggests you didn't need it anyway surely?
Pretty busy around Edinburgh. Hard to keep the 2m distance between people and not get ran over when/if you have to step off the pavement. Think I need to go back to my 5am excursions.
@wwpaddler all in catchment for the high school but it's a rural area. If the primary is 20mailes away this is still the hub. We had kids being brought in by taxi at 0730 because the taxi had to do another run to the same primary. The numbers are limited as we are working with a 1:5 ratio.
Our council hasn't kept any secondaries open. All hubs are in primaries. If it was a rural area I could understand but I've got 2 primaries and a secondary within a 10min walk and can get to another 3 primaries within 20mins. If they'd opened some of the 6 high schools in the county they'd have a chance of kids being in school near where they live. There is no transport offered unless you normally receive it. Very few kids are provided with transport at primary level.
So I have a choice of driving 400miles in the wrong direction each week with time and money cost associated or luckily we have understanding employers so have been able to change our shifts so one of us works 6-3 and one of us works 2-midnight. Luckily he's ok for a couple of hours on his own and is unlikely to burn the house down. Not doing our relationship much good as we don't see each other or have any family time but at least we both still have jobs.
