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The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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PPE update from The Spectator....The much-anticipated shipment of personal protective equipment from Turkey contained 32,000 gowns vs the expected 400,000 units.
My mental maths tells me that's all of 8%.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 5:18 pm
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dannyh
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That’s what happens when populist dogma becomes your raison d’etre.

Raaaaaab being your absolutely perfect example- went from being an apparently decent local MP to being acting PM purely by telling a load of lies about brexit.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 5:32 pm
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-uk-ministers-were-warned-last-year-of-risks-of-coronavirus-pandemic

Pretty Explosive. This government has no excuse. The ignorance, incompetence and negligence is staggering.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 6:20 pm
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The Guardian are a bit behind the curve on that one, think last year's warning was bring discussed when the Torygraph ran the article on 2016s Operation Cygnus.

A Tory leaning friend has just shared an article on FB asking us not to criticise the government as they are doing their best. I've pointed out that I'm not criticising them for doing their best, I'm pointing out that their best clearly isn't good enough, given what some other countries have managed.

It's gone quiet at her end....


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 6:29 pm
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Being Tory right now must be worse than leprosy given the last time they clapped so hard for health workers was when they voted down a pay rise for life-saving NHS nurses. What a bunch of total scumbags.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 6:33 pm
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The ignorance, incompetence and negligence is staggering

Only 5 more years of them to go.

And they've rolled Michael Green Grant "lockdowns are populist" Shapps out to do the press thing tonight.

Good times.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 6:34 pm
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It's incredible isn't it. WTF were people thinking.

And once we get through the worst of this, we've got Brexit to look forward to.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 6:42 pm
 mehr
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Classic Dom

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1253740949597011970?s=19


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 7:48 pm
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My tin foil hat is twitching, I mean seriously, how would someone know this in advance...

The document said:

A pandemic would play out in up to “three waves”, with each wave expected to last 15 weeks … “with the peak weeks occurring at weeks 6 and 7 in each wave”.

50% of the population would be infected and experience symptoms of pandemic influenza during the one or more waves. The actual number of people infected would be higher than this, as there would be a number of asymptomatic cases.

A pandemic of moderate virulence could lead to 65,600 deaths.

The potential cost to the UK could be £2.35tn.

Even after the end of the pandemic, it is likely that it would take months or even years for health and social care services to recover.

There would be significant public outrage over any perceived poor handling of the government’s preparations and response to the emergency.

...if it wasn't planned / inevitable?


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 7:54 pm
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You are all making the mistake the democrats made vs Trump. None of this matters. The voting public don’t read the news. Boris will play Churchill and get voted in again.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 7:55 pm
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Tin foil hat wearing conspiracy theories really aren't helping this thread


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 7:58 pm
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SWMBOs Grandad just diagnosed.

99 years old and already in hospital for something chest related.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 8:32 pm
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I mean seriously, how would someone know this in advance…

Because there are people who sit down and actually plan for things like this. We can't be relying on whichever dim rich boy the public likes this week to deal with the serious shit, so we think about it before it happens.

Public service; some of us take it seriously.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 8:54 pm
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…if it wasn’t planned / inevitable?

Surprisingly, we know rather a lot about influenza pandemics 😉 . Sadly this one fell through the cracks based on a different pathogenesis. The mixing part was well predicted, but with no treatment or immunity, there was only on way to stop spread.

To be honest, you should be thankful that this was NOT SARS-COV1b# - highly pathogenic AND transmissible. If it had been, I would not be typing this now. It's not, but some of the plans were based on early thoughts that it might be.

#The 2002 SARS was very pathogenic but hard to spread. MERS was even more pathogenic but not transmissible (except from camels to humans).


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:00 pm
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Kryters - it's disaster planning; same principle applies in businesses but this is massively more serious.
Failing to implement/adapt disaster planning, as we're seeing, can lead to disaster.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:04 pm
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None of this matters. The voting public don’t read the news. Boris will play Churchill and get voted in again.

We know that. But we can still laugh and scream at the naked emperor, as his followers are busy tugging their forelocks and staring at the crowd in respect.

Classic Dom

It’s why people have been pushing for a list of who is providing the ‘science’ the government is following.

Still no publication of the ‘models’ that were used to justify not introducing measures to control the spread before it was nationwide and unstoppable.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:09 pm
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It's like doing a fire drill and identifying that one of the escape routes is locked and as a result in your sim they all burned to death.

Then doing nothing

and then having a gas leak, and because the door's still locked they asphyxiate.

And claiming that because it wasn't a fire there's no way they could have been prepared for it.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:16 pm
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think I can confirm that lockdown is officially over here. The icecream van has been doing the rounds of the estate this evening.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:25 pm
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Classic Dom

I’d missed this from Vallance, on why we couldn’t know who the members of Sage were:

“… protects them from lobbying and other forms of unwanted influence which may hinder their ability to give impartial advice”

Impartial advice my arse.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:26 pm
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think I can confirm that lockdown is officially over here. The icecream van has been doing the rounds of the estate this evening.

Technically a takeaway? Though I'm guessing the customers ignored the 2m rule.

Ice cream van did a special pre order only delivery to one of the care homes on the village this afternoon, think someone had offered to pick up the tab and arranged it all.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:35 pm
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Wales is having tougher rules imposed tomorrow with regards exercise and travel:

Linky

Needed as people were starting to take liberties. Will be interesting to see if Westminster follows suit or not.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:36 pm
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Impartial advice my arse.

how can they stand up and speak with a straight face ? don't they realize it's them that will be put in front of the proverbial firing squad! It's not boris or cummings but them.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:37 pm
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Ice cream van did a special pre order only delivery to one of the care homes on the village this afternoon, think someone had offered to pick up the tab and arranged it all.

prearranged is a bit different to driving around with "de de da da da da de da da da" blaring out.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:41 pm
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Needed as people were starting to take liberties. Will be interesting to see if Westminster follows suit or not.

As ever, we probably don't need tougher rules, we need resources to enforce the existing rules. Sure there's some squaddies not helping with logistics who can man a few checkpoints to support the Police, the message will get across


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:43 pm
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Cyclists are being told they should travel no farther than a "reasonable walking distance from home".

wtaf!!! what does that even mean, i am fed up with the woolly cowardly crap coming from the all our governments. If you have to put a time limit on it or a distance so everyone knows where they stand.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:46 pm
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Why is that woolly? If you’re a cyclist, you know when you’re further from home then you’d be happy to walk home. If people pretend not to understand, then a km limit will come, as in Ireland.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:51 pm
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The article says "We understand that "reasonable distance" is within 10 miles of your home".


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:54 pm
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prearranged is a bit different to driving around with “de de da da da da de da da da” blaring out.

But takeaways are legal....


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 9:56 pm
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But takeaways are legal….

by appointment, actively trolling for business ?


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:02 pm
 kilo
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But takeaways are legal

Ice cream is not a basic necessity whereas it could be argued that your dinner is, and therefore allowed


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:05 pm
 AD
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Any link as to the reasons for Wales tightening their version of the lockdown? Have pelotons of evil cyclists been licking OAP's?


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:09 pm
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my guess is as with the Scottish chap last week as all other sports injuries are falling out of the stats cycling related injuries are floating to the top.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:13 pm
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It's a reaction to a lot of people, Welsh and from other areas, travelling to the honeypot areas to exercise. Walkers, cyclists and in some cases horse owners with their animals in trailers.

Just one example: Londoners on Snowdon

Add in the increase in traffic in South Wales especially and they decided to tighten things.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:16 pm
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The article says “We understand that “reasonable distance” is within 10 miles of your home”.

thats in a welsh online article not the bbc link posted it's also not on the official website linked to by the bbc.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:19 pm
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My error, had forgotten the preorder rule.

Wasn't aware that any foods were banned for not being necessary though


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:20 pm
 kilo
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Wasn’t aware that any foods were banned for not being necessary though

The law says

Restrictions on movement

6.—(1) During the emergency period, no person may leave the place where they are living without reasonable excuse.
(2) For the purposes of paragraph (1), a reasonable excuse includes the need—
(a)to obtain basic necessities, including food..,

I’m not sure waddling out to an ice cream van is going to be regarded as obtaining a necessity


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:24 pm
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At least the ministers can't hide behind the 'we were just following the science' BS any more.

But as pointed out above most people will just shrug & ignore it & vote Johnson in next time round 😕


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:35 pm
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I thought this thread had been purged of its conspiracy theories but i see not, at least it makes for amusing reading and highlights the truisms that common sense and the ability to rationalise and contextualise information is not was widespread as initially thought


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:35 pm
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How does Dominic Cummings qualify to be in the SAGE group first of all? The conflict of interest is another matter.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:45 pm
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This is a graph tracking number of new cases per day, plotting Oxfordshire in orange, and China in blue. Shows Oxfordshire is tracking on a similar decline which is very good news. National level this will not be visible as areas will have experienced different timings of their peaks. The China peak has been aligned to the date of the Oxfordshire peak. This is a five day moving average graph. The China data has been cleaned up for their one off massive increase.

Oxfordshire Vs China


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:48 pm
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This is a table comparing week 15 of 2020 vs the average of week 15 in the proceeding 5 years. This is looking at total deaths, from the ONS data.

Age comparison


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:54 pm
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This is showing what China experienced as a "2nd wave" on the scale of Oxfordshire. Clearly very small. I guess the visible 2nd wave will be much later in the year.

2nd Wave


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 10:59 pm
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This is looking at total deaths by location, again from the ONS.

Location


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 11:09 pm
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Looks like total deaths will officially pass 20,000 tomorrow or Sunday.

That's a lot of effected families and loved ones.


 
Posted : 24/04/2020 11:42 pm
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I thought this thread had been purged of its conspiracy theories but i see not, at least it makes for amusing reading and highlights the truisms that common sense and the ability to rationalise and contextualise information is not was widespread as initially thought.

With reference to my post I’m going to qualify it a little by stating I’ve had a very bad few days and may not be thinking straight when I used the phrase “ tin foil hat”. However, my point was that there’s a lot of coincidence in the content of the article describing what might happen, compared to reality.   Yes I’m aware of business planning and TiRed has kindly filled in the gaps here that link the similarity I’m referring to in the context of this thread.


 
Posted : 25/04/2020 12:00 am
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