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it’s completely fair to demand some pretty convincing evidence that this coronavirus interacts with our immune system completely differently to every other coronavirus that has preceded it.
Do you think it would be at all possible for you to try and educate yourself a little bit before you spout such moronic rubbish that is completely incorrect?
Trump testing positive might be a turning point for America.
anagallis_arvensis
Do you think it would be at all possible for you to try and educate yourself a little bit before you spout such moronic rubbish that is completely incorrect?
We've had millions of cases, for almost a year now. Some people retain antibodies, some don't.
But if reinfection with serious illness was really a thing - as you seem to suggest - then we would know about it by now. It would be all over the news. There are instead a handful of reports of people being tested positive a second time who were unaware that they were even infected.
Once you've been infected, your immune system does what it's always done.
And if it didn't then we would *Really* be in trouble. How do you think a vaccine works?
P.S.
I'm trying to avoid calling people names and suggesting that they're lazy and stupid because it makes it impossible to discuss this. Let's not go down that road because then this thread becomes just another echo chamber.
How do you think a vaccine works?
Heard of a "booster"?
Once you’ve been infected, your immune system does what it’s always done.
Why do I keep getting colds a flu throughout my lfe then?
I’m trying to avoid calling people names and suggesting that they’re lazy and stupid because it makes it impossible to discuss this.
You should listen to your advice here.
How do you think a vaccine works?
Why do they need a new flu vaccine every year?
Once you’ve been infected, your immune system does what it’s always done.
Not everyone's immune system exists or reacts the same.
A word on coronavirus immunity. I posted this before. There are four (now five) endemic coronaviruses, which account for about 1/6 colds. A twenty year study showed that the typical time between infections is about two years. This is due to loss of immunity rather than antigenic shift (unlike rhinovirus and influenza).
We are only a quarter of a cycle through that process for this new pathogen. You have to take a long view. Antibodies are raised by virus challenge in almost everyone, and they wane with a period of three to six months. That tells me we don’t sustain production. It is possible that re-exposure gives some form of boost.
There is a lot of noise about T-cell cross reactivity. But this is part of the adaptive immunity that fires up to chase the pathogen. If the pathogen has a head start, it may fail to control the infection. It may however make an infection milder. Presence of cross reactivity is not evidence of immunity. I have an mtb, that doesn’t mean I take it out to ride - i might be bothered to kit up and head out, or I might not. But at some point in the past, I bought a bike 😉
There is no evidence of lasting immunity to the other coronaviruses. And I strongly doubt lasting lifelong protection from a vaccine either. There is evidence that subsequent infections may be milder. This virus will probably just become a tickle cough eventually in those who have had the infection in the past (I’m hoping!).
Now we do know that neutralising antibodies play a significant role in disease. That’s been shown in trials twice now with recombinant human antibodies by Lilly and Regeneron (I work on another for GSK). So yes if you have a high titer of neutralising antibodies things look good. Whether vaccines make such a response is still moot. Yes all vaccines make some antibodies - that’s the selection criteria to get into a big trial, but antibody quality not quantity is what matters in this game! The studies compare titer to convalescent plasma and do assay potency.
[TL:DR]. Lasting immunity is unlikely, but antibodies do suppress virus. Whether we make them ourselves or give them as a medicine. A vaccine should do the same, but the trials are still ongoing. I’m pretty enthusiastic for the long term. But wanting immunity is no substitute for proper clinical research.
This is an interesting article about why an effective coronavirus vaccine is a challenge, and why it isn't quite as simple as 'get ill-get immunity'.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
Or you could just read what TiRed posted 🙂
TiRed may I just say thank you for your posts. Its nice to hear someones onsidered opinion who knows this subject rather than ranty dave who's mate read something on the Internet.
Why do I keep getting colds a flu throughout my lfe then?
Isn't that because the four common Coronaviruses that cause colds have not been vaccinated against? They are in circulation all the time and the average adult can expect to catch each one of these about 5 times in their lifetime, maybe more, each time the body is able to deal with it better and better, hence them not being too much of a worry. That's why you keep getting colds, but each distinct one gets better to deal with until perhaps you get older and your immune system starts to fail.
The thing about new Coronaviruses is that they hammer people, especially those with weakened immune systems due to other health issues or age. When you get it again, you body deals with it better.
No point getting shouty with anyone, unless of course you are in a position of ultimate knowledge and no one is listening. Armchair virologists, as I am, can only surmise.
Not everyone’s immune system exists or reacts the same.
People on immunosuppressants have the same problem with Covid19 as with any other virus. My BIL had to self-isolate even before all this stuff happened.
Why do they need a new flu vaccine every year?
Good point. So a C19 vaccine is not going to get us out of this. Given which, we're just going to have to learn to live with it being endemic.
Why do I keep getting colds a flu throughout my life then?
They don't tend to kill you though, because you already have some level of immunity. For people with no immunity (people on immunosuppressants, the Incas) a "common cold" can be fatal.
Anyway, going back to some stats that everyone has ignored.
Latest ONS report shows for week 38:
- 139 deaths from C19
- 1,197 deaths mentioning influenza and pneumonia (flu)
- 1,394 deaths from flu - five year average.
If all these lockdown measures made any difference at all, it would show up in the flu numbers. But it has barely moved the needle - it's less than the year-to-year variation.
All of it - masks, "rule of 6", bans on singing, quarantine, track-and-trace. Has made no difference to flu. C19 is transmitted in exactly the same way, so go figure.
That’s a great article. He developed the HPV vaccine. The first vaccine to protect against a cancer (hepatitis excepted). Merck and GSK market vaccines against HPV using the technology.
GSK is developing a spike protein vaccine with Sanofi based on Sanofi making the spike protein and GSK supplying the chemical adjuvant. The adjuvant called AS03 is an oil-based vitamin E derivative that hugely amplifies the immune response. This is the same precedented technology as HPV. I don’t work on the vaccine. I found this interesting, it’s a background on AS03 adjuvant.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22380826/
Maybe we're not very good at social distancing in the UK?
Oldandpastit, read what tired posted, have a think, then read it again. Its not hard to grasp the basic point, which is that we simply cant be sure of anything much.
C19 is not the flu oldpastit. Assuming they work the same was is a February level of ignorance, not an October one. Catch up.
C19 is not the flu oldpastit. Assuming they work the same was is a February level of ignorance, not an October one. Catch up.
They don't work the same once they get inside you.
But they are transferred from person-to-person the same ways.
The measures we're using to try to control C19 should also work for flu.
anagallis_arvensis
Free MemberOldandpastit, read what tired posted, have a think, then read it again. Its not hard to grasp the basic point, which is that we simply cant be sure of anything much.
Posted 8 minutes ago
Really? We've had a million deaths, from a disease that's been around for a year. And after all that time, money and effort spent by the world's top scientists we still "can't be sure of anything much".
I did not realise you had such a low opinion of the scientific community. Personally I'm a lot more impressed by their abilities.
Its a valid point though. Personally we are going above and beyond the rules re. social dsitancing; I've still had a couple of colds this winter. So, in terms of purely catching the virus, why am i still catching colds? Is it simply that there are som many differnt colds around that even with social distancing the chances are you are going to get one?
The measures we’re using to try to control C19 should also work for flu.
Except we're not testing hundreds of thousands of people for influenza, and asking those who test positive to isolate.
And after all that time, money and effort spent by the world’s top scientists we still “can’t be sure of anything much”.
I’ve emphasised the key word for you there.
Except we’re not testing hundreds of thousands of people for influenza, and asking those who test positive to isolate.
Well, now you're saying that all the social distancing measures are irrelevant, and the *only* thing that matters is the testing. OK, fair enough.
The Imperial College survey that came out yesterday said 1/200 are infected with C19 during the period they tested (about a week IIRC).
So that's about 350k people. If you assume about ten days when each person would test positive then that's about 35k people/day becoming infected.
But the daily new cases is only about 7k/day - so our "world beating" testing is only finding about 20% of the actual infected people.
Most of those contacted by TnT then just ignore the restrictions anyway (c.f. SNP MPs).
(EDIT: they contact about 75% of those that test +ve, so that's about 5k/day contacted out of 35k/day actual cases).
It's hard to believe that a TnT system that finds only a tiny fraction of the people who are infected is actually having any meaningful impact.
BTW with regards to Eton, I’m going to be living in a Covid hotspot for some time. They test the boys every week. My neighbour’s son is back home isolating for 10 days already. It’s a boarding school of course. With contacts to the community via support staff and teachers. With that level of testing there will be cases. I don’t think Windsor Boys or girls school will be testing quite as rigorously.
I previously recommended weekly testing of all teachers and weekly pooled class testing of pupils. One day that might happen. Some Israeli mathematicians worked out a nice looking algorithm that allows a signature to go back to identify a positive case. A bit like a barcode. God I love combinatoric theory.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02053-6
Did you listen to More or Less..? They explained pooled testing pretty well for the rest of us.
[ save Nature article for later ]
Personally I’m a lot more impressed by their abilities.
Thank you, I’ll take that as a compliment. 🙂
As a reference, in Southern Hemisphere countries, the influenza epidemic earlier in the year was largely absent due to contact control measures put in place. It’s early days for the U.K. influenza season. Come back in early December and see what has happened.
BTW scientists are always monitoring flu in the opposite hemisphere to get a six-month head start on the likely strains for contagion the next winter. This is used to make a call on vaccine strains to make. Normally they call it right. Occasionally they do not. 2018 was the last mistake, I believe. At least it provides the counter factual for their positive effects on mortality.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.livescience.com/amp/flu-shot-bad-match-influenza-b.html
BTW scientists are always monitoring flu in the opposite hemisphere to get a six-month head start on the likely strains for contagion the next winter.
Given the link above its going to be tricky!!
I've been thinking exactly the same ferrals.
Woke today with a slight sore throat and realised I've a second cold since kids started at school. And the blocked nose my youngest daughter has its likely a second cold, not the lingering first. It's all about risk reduction isn't it? Without complete isolation we can't reduce the chance of infection to zero, but what we do (keeping our distance, wear a mask, reduced social contact) reduce the risk and spread. They reduce the spread of flu, other corona viruses and rhino viruses and more too, but clearly no where near zero.
I'm fairly sure in my family's case, the school's are the vector, which leaves me fearing covid hitting schools and then the country's case numbers spiking. Schools do need to try and provide face to face teaching though. I don't have an answer, but feel that I've again the government have wasted the summer instead of working hard to help schools provide a much better offer.
@oldandpastit
Be
wary of people who know things with absolute confidence, it’s my first measure of scientific credibility (and Richard Feynman’s)
They don’t work the same once they get inside you.
But they are transferred from person-to-person the same ways.
The measures we’re using to try to control C19 should also work for flu.
It's an interesting point - if Flu deaths are by and large the same this year, it would certainly pose a question over SD rules and effectiveness, seeing as to a layman at least they transmit in exactly the same way.
I get @martinhutch point about testing, but having had 'proper' Flu twice, it's not like you're walking around unaware of it like so many Covid carriers are, it's completely floors you, or maybe like Covid a lot of people with Flu don't know?
I think it's reasonable to assume Colds and Flu infections would be massively down this year, after all other Corona viruses are one of the causes of the 'common cold' and Flu seems to transmit in the same way.
Be
wary of people who know things with absolute confidence, it’s my first measure of scientific credibility (and Richard Feynman’s)
I'm fine with being told that I'm wrong and given some evidence to show why.
But being told I should shut up because I'm stoopid? With no actual evidence other than a lame appeal to authority? That just makes me sad about the state of debate around this topic.
20 years at the clinical cutting edge# has taught me that hard lesson. You have to be comfortable with uncertainty. Many people are not. And that includes scientists, some of whom I work with.
And oldnpastit, you aren’t wrong, but not right either. That’s my point, at this early stage it is too early to know. The media love their experts. Hey! I’m an expert (I don’t do media due to my day job - I was an academic before). But I’m willing to concede that these are very early days in the science of a new pathogen. My definition of a “key opinion leader” is “often wrong, seldom in doubt”. I’m the opposite.
#About 8/10 new drugs won’t work. It’s a pretty easy call to say “it’s not going to work” and be correct 80% of the time. Imagine being right that often. That’s a great prediction rate. It won’t help patients though!
I think it’s reasonable to assume Colds and Flu infections would be massively down this year
They might be this winter. Absolutely not reasonable to "assume" it though... hope for it.
I'm pretty sure that More Or Less mentioned that the most common C19 comorbidity in the USA was flu. Quoting CDC, I think...
...we don't want people catching flu and C19 at the same time... and we definitely don't want our medical system unprepared for a spike in cases for both to coincide this winter. We need to plan for Flu cases being similar to previous years... and hope that they are well down, as they have been down under.
But being told I should shut up because I’m stoopid? With no actual evidence
Everytime you post we get more.
[ clarification for CDC report/data in my last post ]
*flu or pneumonia
I think I'd be interested to see how the presence of pandemic Covid this winter affects reporting of flu-like symptoms and doctors inclination to record influenza as a potential cause of death alongside pneumonia.
Relatively few flu cases are confirmed by laboratory testing - government estimates rely also on patient reports and death certification, which again can be done in the absence of positive test.
Either way, it's going to be tricky to separate out Covid deaths from flu deaths in quite a few cases where test results were ambiguous or even negative for Covid.
The measures we’re using to try to control C19 should also work for flu.
Actually I think there's quite a lot of difference, and the assumption of similar transmission has been part of the problem.
Flu: post-symptomatic transmission from droplets (including surface contamination)
Covid: pre-symptomatic transmission from aerosols.
The distinction between aerosol and droplet is that one hangs around in the air for a long time and circulates to fill any enclosed space, so ventilation and being outdoors is more important.
I may be stretching the point a bit, they are somewhat similar and reducing contact and mixing should act to reduce transmission of both. IIRC flu was well down in Australia over their winter. But the details also matter.
Given the priority given to handwashing it seems rather obtuse to suggest that this shouldn't be effective against flu if surface contamination is a major factor. Or that masks will not be at least as effective at intercepting droplets as they are against aerosols.
Apologies of this has been covered before, but is there a possibility that the increase in positive test results could be as a result of false positive of non 19 versions of COVID? Are all the tests the same? Are they all as effective/accurate as each other? Just idle pondering.
href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html">
Lots of different PCR tests, lots of different cycle thresholds, lots of different definitions of a "case".
The student who has had a positive test for Covid19 took part in a randomised test at the weekend after being selected by the ONS and the result came back positive yesterday afternoon. There are no links between this case and the staff case we reported last week which suggests that we are dealing with isolated cases rather than in-college transmission.
From an email we've had from lads college today after their first student testing positive - staff member last week was warned to isolate by contact tracing after an out of school contact was positive.
Safe to assume this lad isn't the only positive one at a college of 2000 kids. Asymptomatic cases really are the spanner in the works this winter.
Apologies of this has been covered before
It has. Worth having a read back through recent pages. Or check More Or Less.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08s7b5d
Any view of what the continuing social distancing policies and measures are trying to achieve now?
Are we trying to minimise loss of life or prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed?
Not that these measures and policies are precision instruments (contrary to the implication of such heard back in the spring from official sources). I do feel that a lack of clarity here from the government is promoting some of the 'rebellions in the shires' that we are seeing.
Are we trying to minimise loss of life or prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed?
I think there's massive overlap between the two. Actions to minimise loss of life by protecting the vulnerable would protect the NHS too.
But if you listened to Boris' speech last week he made a big point about protecting the NHS, and the vulnerable were an afterthought that her almost missed.
And shielding is still paused.
But if you listened to Boris’ speech last week he made a big point about protecting the NHS
I'd like to see that formalised or quantified rather than just being a talking point. If they said that X00's of hospitalisation per week was their limit I would feel more confident that there was a method to their madness.
comparing flu & colds to covid
the other big difference is that kids are big drivers of teh first 2 (at least in my house, the snotty gits)
covid seems to be very unique in the respect that it doesnt really effect kids, how much they spread it still up for debate, but it could change the dynamic of spread compared to other bugs quite a lot
how much they spread it still up for debate
Another more-or-less episode a few weeks back said that children up to about 10 or 11 tended not to spread, above that age they behave like small adults and were just as spready. Sorry, can't find the link.
The medical student halls on the campus where I work have several cases & gone into lockdown (in Farringdon)
Just as our institute are going to double the number of people back in the labs, we are already having to work in bubbles on crappy shifts & the shifts get crappier from next week
Shouldn't complain as a lot of people's jobs are in big trouble, but it's hard with young kids, no longer any help from grandparents etc
As an aside, I had a day off yesterday so with both kids in school me and Mrs K had our first outside the house solo lunch together since June 2019!
We both found it a bit of a chore, just a simple thing in Wagamama’s, but with distancing, cleansing, masks etc there’a two much paranoia about “has this table been cleaned”, who might’ve touched my food”, “the waiters uncomfortably close” easy to find its way entering your mind, to the point we might not bother for a while even given the chance. And bear in mind the 2 kids are in schools!
Not to mention I had my car MOT’d while we were doing so, and I felt I had to make a point of asking if it had been sanitised on return even though it was stated on the invoice.
How Covid changes things. I think I’ll be staying indoors for a while now.
We've only eaten out twice, only reason I avoid is I don't really wanna be indoors with people unless I really have to, and I really don't want that tracing call if at all possible.
Lots of places have gone way overboard with the sanitising tbh, but understandable, to gain customers confidence.
I would just like to say!
Wales, Scotland and the North of England were all put on the German list of ‘high risk areas’ yesterday which means that quarantine restrictions apply if you travel from them. I am in Germany because my dad has been in intensive care for the last three weeks.
I need to go home but it basically means that I won’t be able to visit again before spring I reckon (at least not without working out significant quarantine logistics).
It’s just a bit gloomy. Also very odd having spent 6 months within 20 miles of my house then driving across Europe and staying in a city with fewer cases than the small town I live in.
I read somewhere that kids tend not to be affected because the particular receptor that the virus binds to develop with age, so kids don’t have many of them of the receptors, the number developing with age. Can’t remember where I read that I’m afraid.
I need to go home but it basically means that I won’t be able to visit again before spring I reckon (at least not without working out significant quarantine logistics).
Depends where you travel from. There is no restriction from the South East (yet). But it is not a great situation, I am afraid.
Is there a correlation between (pre-pubescent) kids not getting Covid and the ‘attachment’ of the virus to testes and ovaries?
I’ve seen the handmaids tale question a couple times...
Not quite sure who thinks the virus' point of entry to the body is via the bollocks. Would probably change the Hands/Face/Space mantra a bit.
There is a specific protein on the surface of cells that the virus binds to in order to enter them. A current theory is that kids don't express as much of it.
Glands/Face/Space?
Not quite sure who thinks the virus’ point of entry to the body is via the bollocks.
Who is? I specifically stated ‘attachment’. I’m pretty clued up on viral transmission routes of covid as I’ve needed to read relevant guidance for work. Although tbf aerosols are pretty close to bollocks aren’t they? 🤪
🙂
I'm taking all possible precautions now just in case.
As I understand it Ace2 receptor is expressed differently further down the pipe - the colon,in kids, which may explain why they are more likely to get diarrhoea than coughing symptoms
And as virus can survive in faeces hand washing could be v important in schools
Both testes & ovaries have a blood-ovary /testes barrier of sorts
So remains to be seen if/how virus may effect them,
as ever, more study required!
That picture is disturbing me. One ear elastic is round his neck....where is the other one anchored!?
In addition to the polyclonal antibodies, the President has been taking zinc, vitamin D, famotidine, melatonin and a daily aspirin.
I thought that was an interesting list of things to be taking.
There's been quite a bit about vitamin D and zinc, most recently with Matt Hancock telling us vitamin D doesn't do anything. I guess the president's doctors think otherwise.
I'd not heard of those others before though.
EDIT: melatonin - do we all need to be getting to bed at a sensible time?
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
Can't imagine why the 4.30pm release was delayed until nearly 9...
Something about a backlog of cases since the 24th. Even then it bumps the seven day average way up
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
About 12k new cases. But if Imperial College survey is correct (no reason to doubt it) there should be way more than that - more like 30+k/day. So they're just finding more people now.
Hospitalizations is a more useful metric.
Something about a backlog of cases since the 24th. Even then it bumps the seven day average way up.
Even allowing for reporting delays and testing capacity that graph looks ominous heading towards half term and winter.
In addition to the polyclonal antibodies
Actually monoclonal - he has received Regeneron's twin mAb cocktail which was derived from a patient who recovered from SARS-COV2 infection. So they can legitimately claim "By appointment to POTUS". They published (pdf download of the presentation) their early treatment study results this week, and they look very good indeed.
Full disclosure - I'm working on the GSK/VIR antibody that is not a cocktail - it was isolated from a patient who recovered from SARS-COV1 in the 2003 epidemic not the current one.
Anyone looked at the case numbers yet today? <whistles>
You mean this data here?
There is a reason why people don't always like log plots. You have to step back and take a wider view of the picture. You can see a separation between deaths and admission - perhaps treatment is improving and hospitals have been less stretched, you can see the nadir of cases is about a week earlier than deaths, you can see that both are rising, and with the eye of faith, perhaps admissions are slowing a little. Perhaps...
You can also see why the government have acted.
What is the hospital admission doubling rate approximately TiRed?
Thanks.
Interesting read:
https://medium.com/the-atlantic/this-overlooked-variable-is-the-key-to-the-pandemic-e71fe9bcb315
It’s all about the clusters...
What is the hospital admission doubling rate approximately TiRed?
7-10 days, may be flattening now to two weeks, most likely due to actions two weeks ago:
From the data:
01-Sep 58 x1.4 =
07-Sep 84 x2.3 =
15-Sep 194 x1.4 =
21-Sep 275 x1.3 =
01-Oct 368
etc - so an average of about 1.6x per week, 1.6^2 for two weeks. There is a lot of hysteresis in the system. The general public do not understand hysteresis.
https://twitter.com/justinmadders/status/1312484429248356352?s=19
I know of an outbreak at one London uni that's not been made public yet while they figure out the size, but testing delays are hampering things
Assuming hospital admissions are accurate, definitely the more useful measure!
Thanks TiRed.
Interesting article about the clusters, I'd be interested to see what better qualified people than me make of it, though to me it seems the article seems to head towards "viral load" being a key factor in why clusters occur
Countries that have ignored super-spreading have risked getting the worst of both worlds: burdensome restrictions that fail to achieve substantial mitigation. The U.K.’s recent decision to limit outdoor gatherings to six people while allowing pubs and bars to remain open is just one of many such examples.
I’m not sure where you got that from, I read it as being more about the location/conditions...
Edit: I guess you the mean the viral load in a location as opposed to the viral load of particular individuals.
jam-bo, interesting article from The Atlantic; had already seen it but it's worth sharing.
I’d be interested to see what better qualified people than me make of it
Very much my thought.
"Dad.. I don't want to go to school tomorrow. I don't want to catch Corona".
There are confirmed cases at our local secondary. How do you explain to your kids that it's safe to go to school when they know putting 1200 kids into a crowded building contradicts all advice for social distancing or not mixing in large groups.
Explain it away logically as you would any worry, little chance of actually catching it if they wash hands, and don't touch faces, and if they do, every chance it'll bring mild symptoms, if any, at that age.
Daughter's school coincidentally has 1200 pupils, been back since mid August, not a single positive report.
Regarding secondary schools - it seems the reports of cases in Scotland at that age all involve families returning from foreign holidays, teenage parties outwith school or something similar.
Now I've no figures, that's just reading what's in the press and speaking to local authorities.
The bigger running theme in schools and local authorities concerns is not having too many adults outside of school staff coming into the school. We at work get away with it in most places as we work totally outdoors, our staff don't go into the building at all.
nobeer they won't tell you if there is a positive case, there are seemis codes(registration that are covid related). If I get symptoms I'm not even allowed to warn colleagues (to be more careful) or say I've been for a test. Going by the letter of the communication I'm not allowed to tell anyone apart from my line manager.
Explain it away logically
This. Explain that for children and the majority of adults, the infection is not serious, a bit like having a cold (or even less). But for some, particularly the elderly, it can be very serious. Protecting those who might become very poorly is the reason that we are taking precautions. Also explain that it is unlikely that any of the teachers are likely to be affected seriously, and those who are at risk will be taking extra care.
Not a problem I have any more, although son1 is now a graduate teaching assistant.