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why us this not feeding thru’ a a national level?
As Johnson has outsourced all his thinking to his boss everything is currenty run through Cummings giant brain so maybe thats the backlog
Well.. that's me in local lockdown then.
It's been on the cards for a while. It's going to have a very minor impact on my life really.
Well.. that’s me in local lockdown then.
It’s been on the cards for a while. It’s going to have a very minor impact on my life really.
You in South Wales? All my family back in Newport / Cardiff are in a local lockdowns now too. I will be following shortly London just got put on the watch list.
The whole 10pm thing for my son and a lot of people his age will mean getting pissed in the pub until 10, then carrying on in someone else's house until the early hours. There is very rarely more than 6 of them, so business as usual.
Still no test results here, ffs.
Thanks again for the video link Bill. I’m now a bit less ignorant, and definitely not blissful. Worth everyone watching it… the Long COVID stuff is scary. Have something positive to do after watching…
Watched the first two speakers, not sure I have the stomach for the rest!
I think you [all] should watch it all… the Q&A addresses a lot of things discussed recently in this thread.
As Johnson has outsourced all his thinking to his boss everything is currenty run through Cummings giant brain so maybe thats the backlog
Do you really believe Cummings is anything but Boris's handler appointed by Boris's bosses?
I think you [all] should watch it all
OK, added to my watch list for tonight. (an hour long)
Bad news - after 2 kids with snotty noses all week, my daughter now has a temperature, so it’s Covid test time.
Good news, straight on the new app, and booked a test for tomorrow morning 45 min drive away.
Ive had to pull out of the last cricket match of the season due to 14 day isolation 😣
Both schools have already sent a whole year home due to positive tests. This is in East Sussex, one of the lowest areas in the country.
Kryton57
Full Member
Still no test results here, ffs.
my brothers got lost
he just went back to work after a week of waiting
one of the most interesting points about the indy SAGE meeting was that parts of the body with most ACE- receptors are the ovaries & testes
the accepted wisdom that the young & children are fine is just guesswork, has any work been done on covid effects on fertility in mice etc?
Children of Men/ Handmaids Tale anyone?
So that tells us people testing positive are members of society!
Can I ask if this is breaking the rule of 6 law, and I'd like to say this is theoretical and not happened (yet).
If my 2 kids go out to play with they're 2 friends up the road and they stay outside the house and on the driveway. Then another 2 kids from nextdoor join them. Is that six? Or is that 8 because there are 2 parents inside the house but not with the kids?
This used to happen a lot before Covid 19 and could happen again but don't want to be breaking the law by sending our kids out to play.
kryton - assume 72 hours for results.
Keep testing folks...
Well, first face to face Scout night tonight, and British Gymnastics have allowed senior display squads to do lifts again.
Friday night Dad's Taxi has resumed...
so the data seems to be around, why us this not feeding thru’ a a national level?
https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/1309540574215757825?s=21
[ sorry greentricky - missed that you’d posted that ]
Well despite the First Minister asking everyone to not use this weekend before lockdown starts as an excuse to have a party it seems that there is currently 3 house parties going on on my estate right now.
N, I'm not going to join them.
binners - thanks, hic! bottle, glass, bottle...oh, sod the glass.
Torygraph front page - 3 million tests a day to save Christmas.
Just the slightest whiff of bullshit.
World leading, following the science, ramping up, unprecedented - tra la la...
This bunch of clowns must know their credibility is shot to shit and they will only survive because of the 80 seat majority wilfully gifted to them by corbyn and his acolytes at the last GE.
This shows nothing, other than people who get covid are people, you would need to have the same data for those without covid to even get started.
dantsw13
Free Member
So cases starting to rise, and hospitalisations following as predicted.How long until we run out of PPE again? I have ZERO faith that we have sensibly stockpiled for the winter.
Don't worry. There will be lots of new companies that may or may not be linked to Tory MPs ready to take payment to not deliver PPE
2 x negative tests, whoop! I can go racing today and junior can go back to school Monday knowing his cough is nothing more than... something else.
It’s a big relief, and otherwise now it’s batten the hatches, order some coffee beans and see the winter through. London’s on alert so I’ve not doubt very shortly we’ll not be seeing anyone else for a bit without Zoom.
Great news, wouldnt wish 14 days isolation on even an England Rugby fan!!!
I read on the BBC Website that amongst the huge surge of kids getting tested, only 1% are positive, as opposed to 3.5% amongst adults.
Hopefully this means that colds and coughs are ripping through schools rather than COVID-19, but if 1 virus spreads that easily...........
Would be funny if it weren't so depressingly predictable...
http://twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1309523430887370755?s=19
ONS Chart showing excess deaths from 1950 to 2019.
Puts the Covid19 numbers into an interesting context.
I keep seeing this … excess winter mortality is comparing winter deaths to summer deaths … when talking about excess deaths as regards COVID19, those are deaths above and beyond the deaths that would normally be expected for that time of year. They are not comparable statistics. We are risking this winter having the “normal” huge seasonal rise in deaths AND thousands of extra deaths due to COVID19 on top of that… and of course all the strain on the health services from those who get ill and don’t die… let’s not get complacent just because we already have so many winter related deaths and cases of serious illness.
If we use the controls we did in the spring again this winter, we could be looking at 20,000 excess deaths above what we have been seeing in winters for the past 20 odd years. If we do nothing (we won’t), we’re looking at 200,000 plus. That’s on top of the ‘normal’ excess winter deaths you’re looking at in that graph. The graph would need a new scale. Context.
I read on the BBC Website that amongst the huge surge of kids getting tested, only 1% are positive, as opposed to 3.5% amongst adults.
But if tye increase in testing is in the kids it could still be a big increase in positive kids. Bloody journo's not understanding simple numbers again.
If we do nothing (we won’t), we’re looking at 200,000 plus. That’s on top of the excess winter deaths you’re looking at in that graph.
Where's the 200,000 coming from? As the lovely Dido would say, I'm not sure I recognise that figure.
We are already doing 'something'. There is a measure of social distancing, home working, people staying off public transport, mask use in shops etc. It's not enough, IMO, but enough to mitigate the worst-case scenario to an extent.
Yes, we are doing something, that’s why I said we won’t do “nothing”. That won’t happen. That number of deaths won’t happen. Because of the measures we are already taking and others we are likely to take this winter. That’s just a reminder that the measures that many people want to shrug off are not pointless, they are life saving.
Earlier this year the figure in a “do nothing” scenario was 500,000 … I don’t think that still stands, because more is known about treatment and the NHS is better prepared. The 200,000 was just me taking a punt.
Question for the likes of Tired etc. If the rise in virus numbers is slowed by mitigation as to an extent we are seeing now, what limits the rise. if for example do nothing gives 500 deaths a day by mid Nov, but we mitigate, what stops it getting to 500D/day by mid Jan? And assuming when we hit that number we do a march lockdown which would lead to more deaths?
The (short) “lockdown” that everyone pretends isn’t coming. Current measures are slowing the growth. At some point we’ll need to turn that growth into a plateau, and then get it dropping. All eyes on half term for state schools in England, as a lock down while schools are open just won’t work.
I’m sure you’d rather hear from TiRed though… I know I would.
Oh, also, I think all eyes are on London this Autumn. With extra national measures put in place after the capital gets the local measures much of the rest of us have already.
I don’t think anyone is looking as far ahead as March.
Surely total deaths and area under curve bigger in second scenario?
Surprised that going shopping looks like a likely route of transmission. I've stayed away from the pub, however don't think twice about popping to local supermarket. May need a rethink.
Surprised that going shopping looks like a likely route of transmission
It isnt, its just something almost everyone does!
Going shopping is considered low risk in France and Germany. The evidence is obvious, everyone was still shopping during confinement when the infection rate dropped dramatically.
Shopping doen't involve being in close proximity to people without a mask for long enough.
The evidence is obvious, everyone was still shopping during confinement when the infection rate dropped dramatically.
This is bullshit.
That is all.
As I said earlier unless you present the same data for those not catching covid that data is pointless.
"Shopping" its also a massively wide range of different things.
Shopping has been made much safer since the spring. Supermarkets are still doing a roaring trade with home deliveries though. A hell of a lot of people have changed how they shop, and retailers have changed how they sell. New measures are coming into place here as well… with shop staff being asked to mask up at last.
I suspect "shopping" isn't just the essential supermarket shop. It will also include the mooching/socialising type of shopping.
Excellent interview with the head of public health in Manchester on the radio this morning. "Do you blame students for the rise in the virus?"
"We don't blame any group for any spread, be it by age or ethnicity. Lots of groups are not following the guidelines and causing the virus to spread. We just want to make sure these students have the support they need while in isolation"
Rather slapped the interviewer down quite nicely.
The German RKI has consistently reported that shopping is very low risk. The German track and trace has been working well from the outset and shops just don't figure. If you read German this will tell you where you're likely to get infected. If you want check for shopping or shops look for "einkaufen gehen", "einzelhandel", "laden", happy hunting, they really don't figure.
The place you're most likely to catch the virus according to RKI is in your own home. And the way it gets into your home is most likely from work or school.
Fora moment there I forgot that Kelvin is a renowned epidemiologist and isn’t just making things up to fit his own narrative. Silly me.
JP
I get given the blue surgical disposable masks by work. All advice is use once and throwaway. Several of them have been laundered in trouser pockets, and they come out untouched, which seems backed up by the environmental reports of them in the water cycle.
What am I missing? I'm certainly reusing mine against advice, just washing them.
My youngest son (aged 20) got Covid19 back at the end of February, before it was trendy.
Raging sore throat, temperature, sweating, etc, etc.
He's now back at uni. One of his flatmates turned out to have it yesterday, and now my son has got it.
So, immunity shimmunity.
Blimey, I laughed at John Bishop. My taste has changed, must have corona.
immunity shimmunity
So has he had 2 positive tests confirmed then? Or are you just assuming he had it back in Feb?
So has he had 2 positive tests confirmed then? Or are you just assuming he had it back in Feb?
This!
his own narrative
My ‘narrative’ is that shopping has been made as safe as possible. Claiming that everyone just carried on shopping during lock down, so it must be low risk, is nonsense. We shut more than half of retail completely, and many people stayed away from what remained open. How we use shops was completely transformed during lockdown, and is still nothing like it was before. We need to keep that up for now. And continue to work to make it even safer… then hopefully more retail can stay open when we have to increase other control measures (which France need to really get on with now, they are well ahead of us).
'Retail' is dead.
I went to the big city a few days ago; can't try anything on; not shoes, not jackets, not trousers. So why bother going to an actual shop?
Claiming that everyone just carried on shopping during lock down, so it must be low risk, is nonsense. We shut more than half of retail completely, and many people stayed away from what remained open.
I've been in one shop since March, and that was to pick up an order I made over the phone. My wife has been in none.
which France need to really get on with now, they are well ahead of us
Are you sure about that? The UK isn't testing contacts such as family members, ask A-A, but France is so the daily cases tally is not comparable, it's still very easy to get a test here. If you eliminate people from the sytem that wil almost certainly test postive you reduce both the number of case and the percentage positive which become misleading.
In the UK the conditions for recording a death as a Covid death have been changed with a time limit that means many Covid victims who go through intensive care will exceed it. When you look at excess deaths it's clear which countries most underestimated deaths for the first wave because they didn't record Covid deaths as Covid deaths.
Pointing at others while doing nothing has alredy been tried as a tactic, it didn't work.
What should we "get on with", Kelvin? Continue with the current damage limitation exercise which tries to pick a way between the level of economic activity and excess deaths or something else? This genie isn't going to be put back in the bottle, the first confinement round proved that, it's a question of doing what can be done to limit spread without economic collapse or a revolution.
What should we “get on with”, Kelvin?
Put more measures in to slow the spread. Pretty obvious really. France is well ahead of the rest of Europe. We’re not far behind. The UK completely messed up in the Spring, and we may well mess up again this Autumn… France is currently who we should be watching to see what is going to be hitting us here soon.
Such as? Be specific please because no it isn't obvious as you have said no more than "measures". Bearing in mind the measures already in place, where infections are happening (work, school and university etc.), how effective the extra measures might be and how the population might react.
France is well ahead of the rest of Europe
It really isn't, check out worldometers. I don't follow every country but I do follow Spain (which is just over the hill and where I am hoping to be able to go shortly) with over 600 deaths in the last five days.
Edit: reply deleted, this is all too tedious again
Not tedious at all kelvin, apart from listening to Nicola at lunchtime, I avoid all other news, this thread is the only covid related stuff I read, it's all good.
This place is actually a beacon of sanity at times!
So has he had 2 positive tests confirmed then? Or are you just assuming he had it back in Feb?
Couldn't get tested back then as hadn't just returned from China/Italy, so just carried on as normal. But he had all the symptoms. Also some (different) flatmates also had it at the same time.
What should we “get on with”, Kelvin? Continue with the current damage limitation exercise which tries to pick a way between the level of economic activity and excess deaths or something else? This genie isn’t going to be put back in the bottle, the first confinement round proved that, it’s a question of doing what can be done to limit spread without economic collapse or a revolution.
What are you thoughts on the Victoria response Edukator? I wouldn't have put Australians down as responding well to authoritarianism but they seem to have complied with extremely harsh measures. Perhaps the geography means that approach simply couldn't be applied in europe, with much smaller distances between population centres.
Personally I think our government will be forced into another "lockdown" on human interaction but will not force sections of the economy to close. This is so they can't be blamed directly for allowing businesses to fail whilst providing inadequate support.
Couldn’t get tested back then as hadn’t just returned from China/Italy, so just carried on as normal. But he had all the symptoms. Also some (different) flatmates also had it at the same time
So probably just a normal seasonal bug then given documented cases of coronavirus reinvention are few and far between.
Bearing in mind the measures already in place, where infections are happening (work, school and university etc.),
For the last two the public perception and the reality are probably two quite different things.
In what sense?
Just had an email from eldests 6th form college to say that one of the staff has just been their first positive test - track and trace had linked him to a non-school case.
Couple of close staff contacts have been advised to isolate, everyone else crack on as normal.
tpbiker
So probably just a normal seasonal bug then given documented cases of coronavirus reinvention are few and far between.
Flatmate has tested positive. Awaiting results of my son's test.
I guess the flatmate result could be one of those false positives - from More Or Less today, that's running at around 20% or so of results.
What? That sounds like someone has badly misunderstood something.
I guess the flatmate result could be one of those false positives – from More Or Less today, that’s running at around 20% or so of results.
Is that last bit true? 20% of tests get a false positive that seems crazy high. Not saying you're wrong just that it seems madness
from More Or Less today, that’s running at around 20% or so of results.
Suggest you listen again to the prog; heard it twice and that is not what David Spiegehalter said in his explanation.
How could you listen to that episode and come away with that conclusion!
I guess the flatmate result could be one of those false positives – from More Or Less today, that’s running at around 20% or so of results.
hiw on earth have tou cone to that conclusion?
a 20% false positive rate would be the worst qpcr ever, in 20 years of doing qpcr, ive never seen anything like that
What is the false positive rate then? I know of two folk who have had positives followed by a subsequent negative within 48 hours.
What more or less explained (quite well I thought) was that the false positive rate isn't what a lot of people seem to think it it. It's not the fraction of positive cases that are false positives, but rather that fraction of negative cases that are incorrectly labelled positive. The reason being that this is a constant whereas the fraction of positive cases that are false positives depends on the fraction of positive cases in the population.
To take an extreme example, if you test a population that are all negative then the fraction of positive cases you detect that are false is obviously 100%. Similarly if you test a population that are all positive then the fraction of false positives is zero.
If you randomly screened the population (where the prevalence is really low) then you could end up with something daft like 90% of the cases you detect being false positives. However, we are not doing that. We are testing people who come forward because they think they may have the disease. So, that fraction of positives that are false is probably insignificant. But putting an exact percentage on that is hard as the prevalence in that population is changing all the time.
@scotroutes its quite possible that the virus had fallen to below detectable levels after 2 days, although its possible that in some cases of high viral load you could get dead virus being detected long after ( tho this is rare)
if first test was within 7 days of infection & 2nd test after 7 days, then you could get that restult
all this comes from Matt Hancock being interviewed by julia hate-brewer, saying false positives were less than 1%
this was leapt on because as cases are so low at the moment, for every 1000 peoole tested then 10 will be false positives, but as infection rate is 1 in 1000 nationally, so the lockdoen sceptics, toby young etc are saying that 90% of the increase seen is fake.
(ONS study actually said 0.05% anyway, hancock was jyst being lazy and rounding up)
but people getting tested have symptoms or already in an area with an outbreak, theyre not a random 1 in 1000 sample, some already in hospital, so false +ve rate is much much lower in the real world, & varies by setting.
its actually the other way we should be worried about , the test itself is only as good as the sampling, majority of which are now home tests + delays on processing will degrade viral RNA beyond point of detection (degraded RNA is my nemesis in work)
Harding reckoned it coukd be as much as 20% of tests could be false negatives
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52906909 and delays have been really bad in some cases
other pont is that false +ve rate is constant so localised rises are still rises!
the BMJ have created a little tool to explore this
idiot journalists, lockdown sceptics & even shamefully some maths professors should take note
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808
This whole thread gives me a headache.
It's so painfully obvious that you (in the UK) are not getting good enough information and guidance from your leaders in order to make informed choices about your behaviors. You don't know where people are catching the virus (and where they are not)...... that graph posted back there would be absolutely laughable if it wasn't quite so serious. "people go to the shops" ffs.
Because of our relatively low numbers, the information from our track and trace system in New South Wales is pretty good, and includes genotyping tests to trace them all the way back to source.
We do get a few infections with no known source, but those are getting fewer and farther between. Most of our numbers are either from travelers in quarantine, or from known sources - as part of infection tracing.
The clusters that we've seen as part of this second wave (which originated in Melbourne) are predominantly household transmission, restaurants and pubs/bars, but with a fair few gyms too. Pretty much nothing from supermarkets/shops/coffee shops (even though most of them have returned to business as usual), and very few from Schools. We have certainly had cases in schools, but these have not grown into clusters in the same way they have in restaurants/bars.
For context, a thai restaurant where they had a single infected guest for about 2 hours, resulted in about 100 cases, and about 80 came from a pub/restaurant (including at least one death) again, from a single infected patron.
Importantly - that's WITH restrictions in place.
that graph posted back there would be absolutely laughable if it wasn’t quite so serious. “people go to the shops” ffs.
Its taken from the track and trace questions that you are asked to fill in when you get a positive test.
Have you been shopping in the last week, most people would say yes.
predominantly household transmission, restaurants and pubs/bars, but with a fair few gyms too. Pretty much nothing from supermarkets/shops/coffee shops (even though most of them have returned to business as usual), and very few from Schools
Household transmission is another one, most people live in houses and if they do are highly likely to be near other people in the house.
Schools are an odd one, majority of people in schools are young and so likely to be asymptomatic but could take it home and spread it. If as in the UK, you are only tested with symptoms schools dont get shut because the kids dont get ill. Thats my theory anyway, my evidence is hiwever only anecdotal.
If only they asked those location questions when people went in for a test, the answers might be useful. As it is...a waste of time. Base rate fallacy is one explanation.
If only they asked those location questions when people went in for a test, the answers might be useful
Exactly, if they dont ask people who are negative its pointless