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Personally I prefer to use “indoctrinating”. It sounds much more sinister.
🤪
We did use “witch dipping” back in the 90’s.... which was hilarious.
My old Director was a proper nobber, he got away with so much. Name calling a particular specialty.
He’d be punching out of his grave if he heard me use the term “onboarding” too..
🥳🤹♂️
OT but I came back from my induction when I was out in the US a few years back to a cheerful "how did the Kool Aid taste?" which made me laugh. (yeah, I'm a terrible person too)
My son came back from his primary school yesterday to say that the school were using the five extra minutes from ringing the bell early to encourage hand washing. Laudable.
Until it became apparent they were doing this by getting thr kids to wash their hands in four (for over 200 kids) washing up bowls, sharing the water.
Idiots.
My wife (25 years plus in the NHS and departmental lead for infection control at her workplace) gave the headmistress a succinct lesson in infection control in the playground this morning.
My son's class have recently had chickenpox and GE do the rounds. The idiocy and lack of common sense of some people you might expect to have a brain cell or two is amazing.
Mind you, the headmistress is new, and something of a religious zealot, so perhaps the local vicar (who is also an evangelical nutcase) blessed the water first, so it is all fine.
This outbreak is going to be more than fifty percent idiocy control rather than infection control.
Not really.
Not really that it won't forever more be in circulation?
or not really that if your plan was simply to quarantine everyone entering the country you wouldn't need to maintain that forever?
or not really that if you did quarantine everyone entering that its the "end of trade, travel, and most of our supply routes"?
Anyone else believe the government have got their strategy really wrong on this.
The two options are...
A. Aggressively contain as early as possible to try and stop it spreading to eradicate the virus.
B. Let it run through the whole population until enough people are dead/immune that it fizzles out.
We have gone with B., as the Government believes it is impossible to contain. They will try and slow the spread down a bit once it gets going to move the peak towards the summer when the NHS has more capacity. By their own estimates it is likely to infect 20-80% of the population and kill 100K+ people. (Personally I think it will kill more as they are working on a 1% CFR, while the WHO is saying 3.4% and once the free 800 ICU beds are gone it is likely to be approaching 10%)
China on the other hand seem to have contained this in a few months, only 26 new cases today and I’d expect they will more or less be free of new infection in the next few weeks.
China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same. The sooner we act aggressively the more easily it can be stopped with less disruption and less death/suffering.
Maybe Boris just wants us to be totally screwed so he can have his “Churchill moment” and save us from this disaster (that he created).
Greek Orthodox Church inadvertently setting themselves up for a Darwin Award:
“For the members of the church, attendance of the Divine Eucharist and the shared Cup of Life, of course cannot be a cause of transmission of illness,” the body of senior clerics said in the statement. “Believers of all ages know that attending communion, even in the midst of a pandemic, is both a practical affirmation of self-surrender to the Living God and a potent manifestation of love, which vanquishes every human and perhaps justified fear.”
China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same.
Because we are not a communist state where people do what they are told, we are a superior western state with a population who can pigging well do what we want when we want, because we're worth it (and f everyone else).
See also, building hospitals with ICU beds really, really quickly; police enforcing quarantine; keeping essential industry going by making workers live onsite without being able to leave; etc.
One of the pathologists in my dept was in Rome at the weekend, came to work yesterday and has today decided to self isolate despite sitting in the dept all day yesterday 🙄 what a Muppet
China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same. The sooner we act aggressively the more easily it can be stopped with less disruption and less death/suffering.
Summary of the last 38 pages:
1) Wait until China lifts quarantine before you decide it was successful.
2) China did things we "can't" do.
3) the Chinese have put up with stuff that's completely impossible to implement in a country which riots over lack of chicken in KFC
or not really that if your plan was simply to quarantine everyone entering the country you wouldn’t need to maintain that forever?
Quarantine measures, if they come in, will be temporary… to slow the transmission rate, so that health services (and all services for that matter) can cope… and at some point we’ll have working vaccines for this… which we then probably won’t even get to use, if it mutates to become less dangerous, which is a usual pattern. Measures to reduce the impact of a new virus in the long term don’t look anything like quarantine, or lock downs, they are very much short terms measures.
China on the other hand seem to have contained this in a few months, only 26 new cases today and I’d expect they will more or less be free of new infection in the next few weeks.
China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same. The sooner we act aggressively the more easily it can be stopped with less disruption and less death/suffering.
The potential issue I see with this is that while China has been very successful in containment this hasn't led to a widespread development of any immunity. The virus if it's brought back in to China will still have a huge population who are vulnerable. Obviously that may not be an issue if a vaccine can be developed but I don't think at this stage you can count the Chinese experience as a success. It'll only be after the event that we'll have a better idea of what worked and what didn't. Of course it also helps to have a state apparatus that is set up to take drastic action against anyone who steps out of line. Of course Boris and Dom will have that in place for the next pandemic virus but they've been a bit tied up with worrying about the colour of passports.
A. Aggressively contain as early as possible to try and stop it spreading to eradicate the virus.
B. Let it run through the whole population until enough people are dead/immune that it fizzles out.
The actual strategy is a mixture of the two - contain then delay. The idea is not to eradicate it, that can't be done. It is to control the rate at which it increases within the population so the health service can cope better.
We are going to have an epidemic, but you want an epidemic curve with a lower peak and a longer tail. This graphic demonstrates the principle.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1237039035257769986
(If you view it within twitter it has an animation which shows the difference)
The purple area under the curve represents potential excess mortality due to overextended medical services.
The only issues are - when do you start 'delay', and what level of restrictions do you need to flatten the peak of the curve? The experts will be trying to model that based on the Italian experience.
The two options are…
A. Aggressively contain as early as possible to try and stop it spreading to eradicate the virus.
B. Let it run through the whole population until enough people are dead/immune that it fizzles out.
We have gone with B.,
They haven’t.
That animated graph is an awesome explainer.
@dannyh : seems like every fortnight we get a letter home from school warning us about the latest cycle of head lice or thread worm or chickenpox to infect the classroom. Covid would go through a class of those snotty little buggers in a couple of minutes!
Just been informed at work to expect wholesale home-working by next week, or week after at the latest, and to make sure all team members have the tech they need and are aware of processes to work remotely. Off to do a bog roll and pasta audit.
Great news, Daz. 'Homeworking' can boost the immune system. Official.
https://twitter.com/JonathanPieNews/status/1236350824760193030
Because we are not a communist state where people do what they are told, we are a superior western state with a population who can pigging well do what we want when we want, because we’re worth it (and f everyone else).
See also, building hospitals with ICU beds really, really quickly; police enforcing quarantine; keeping essential industry going by making workers live onsite without being able to leave; etc.
Ok, so let’s look at South Korea - They are an advanced democratic country like the UK. They have fought back testing 200k+ people and actively tracking down infected people and their contacts. The government has thrown $25bn at fighting this. They’ve gone from nearly 1000 cases a day down to 35 today.
I saw an interview with one of the WHO guys who was saying the same thing, it is possible to beat this but not with the defeatist attitude of our government.
Covid would go through a class of those snotty little buggers in a couple of minutes!
Probably, but it would be nice if the school didn't actively introduce measures that make it even more likely.
Under the new regime they are all over religious stuff like you wouldn't believe, but anything practical and they haven't got a clue.
I wouldn't put it past them to encourage the notion that this can be solved through prayer.
Ok, so let’s look at South Korea – They are an advanced democratic country like the UK. They have fought back testing 200k+ people and actively tracking down infected people and their contacts. The government has thrown $25bn at fighting this. They’ve gone from nearly 1000 cases a day to 35 today
Which part of 1000s of cases a day makes you think the UK is doing a worse job with 3-400 total?
Which part of 1000s of cases a day makes you think the UK is doing a worse job with 3-400 total?
It’s not the absolute numbers, it’s the growth in numbers. An approx 10x growth in a week, if that continues we’ll be in Italy’s position in less than 2 weeks.
It’s not the absolute numbers, it’s the growth in numbers. An approx 10x growth in a week, if that continues we’ll be in Italy’s position in less than 2 weeks.
So South Korea had its first case 20/01, that's 11 days before the UK. Your point is 14 days from now, we'll have less cases than south Korea does today (so 3days more since first case) because South Korea has it right and we don't?
Edit: according to statista Italy has 724 recovered cases vs. South Korea' s 51. People there aren't dying as fast but they're not recovering either.
Reading about Italy and China is depressing and scary there is no doubt
The Italian doctors tweets that ignorance is not the solution seems to still be falling on deaf ears
Very anecdotal but I’ve asked Italian colleagues and friends What they think and they don’t seem to see any issue. One said there isn’t any issue in Italy and it’s all nonsense/ made up/ normal flu. Colleague in Milan heard flights were likely to stop so thought f... quarantine at home I’m going on holiday. Third one has gone to northern Italy to pick up a car from home and see his folks. Wife is a midwife, child in nursery... has he taken the advice to stay at home and phone 111? Has he buggery. “I didn’t touch anything when I was there”
Latest figures show a 24hr increase of about 50 positives in the UK - that's 3 days on the run with roughly the same figures.
No rapid increase..... yet.
So South Korea had its first case 20/01, that’s 11 days before the UK. Your point is 14 days from now, we’ll have less cases than south Korea does today (so 3days more since first case) because South Korea has it right and we don’t?
I don’t really understand your point?
The growth in cases is pretty slow in the early days as they are imported cases and are often traced. Once a few of these are missed and it starts to spread in the community that’s when it goes exponential, I think we have moved into this phase in the last week.
Korea obviously has a fair bit of spread before they got on top of it hence the big numbers, the important thing is they have had declining numbers for several days so no reason why we can’t do the same.
Edit: according to statista Italy has 724 recovered cases vs. South Korea’ s 51. People there aren’t dying as fast but they’re not recovering either.
The likely reason for that is Italy missed a lot of cases initially and have done a fraction of the testing Korea has done. Although the numbers of cases is similar to Korea, deaths are much higher which would imply they are a few weeks further into their outbreak and actually have far more cases than their tests show. As it takes 2-6 weeks to “recover”, they have more recoveries as their outbreak has been running longer.
Korea obviously has a fair bit of spread before they got on top of it hence the big numbers, the important thing is they have had declining numbers for several days so no reason why we can’t do the same.
Apart from the fact that S. Korea has more hospital beds per capita, more available cash and a completely different culture to UK.
Mention of the Dunkirk spirit from cartoon above seems appropriate, 1% of those chaps died too.
We are going to have an epidemic, but you want an epidemic curve with a lower peak and a longer tail.
https://twitter.com/olivierveran/status/1237113080401756164?s=21
Also S Korea's main growth phase was triggered by a religious sect who all infected each other then spread out, with some not giving up details of the recent contacts when asked.
I found this report
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext
which models the effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation on containment of an outbreak.
Edit: according to statista Italy has 724 recovered cases vs. South Korea’ s 51
I can't read in straight lines. 51 is dead, 166 recovered.
I saw an interview with one of the WHO guys who was saying the same thing, it is possible to beat this but not with the defeatist attitude of our government.
Are you unfamiliar with the previous work of Mr B Johnson and those around him?
It's not defeatist. They genuinely just couldn't give a flying ****!
once the free 800 ICU beds are gone it is likely to be approaching 10%
you've just made that up
it starts to spread in the community that’s when it goes exponential
it doesn't. Do you know what exponential means?
Apart from the fact that S. Korea has more hospital beds per capita, more available cash and a completely different culture to UK.
The fact we have far less hospital beds than Korea is even more reason to aggressively contain like they have rather than let it run free.
The Koreans have got on top of this by extensive testing and contact tracing not really by locking things down, so any cultural differences shouldn’t be too relevant.
It’s not defeatist. They genuinely just couldn’t give a flying ****!
DO you actually really think the person running the UK doesn't care either about the people who will die or indeed it' economy ? It's not impossible the guy could die himself... But he doesn't care ?
Come on, lets be sensible for a moment.
it doesn’t. Do you know what exponential means?
Do you?
Secondary infection rate is currently assumed to not less than 2.
So 1 infection leads to 3, 3 becomes 7, 7 becomes 15 etc.
This outbreak is going to be more than fifty percent idiocy control rather than infection control.
51.8% ?
As for LyingBloHard, Y’a voted the monkey bloke in, whaaaaYaexpect.
I’m not going near a Whailing Daily Rag, but this does make me wonder what their take on LyingBloHard’s “let gammon die” attitude is.
🤷♂️🤣
Come on, lets be sensible for a moment.
Johnson is far more selfish then any of the standard humans you’ve met in your lifetime… do not expect his thoughts and actions to be similar to anyone you have known. The “experts” will need to convince him that it is politically in his best interests to act in the way they advise, or he won’t go along with them. They should be up to that task… as long as Cummings or the more unhinged workforce hating members of his cabinet can’t convince him to ignore them. My money is on the “experts” this time though. Should be an easy sell that on an issue like this, the standing of the PM with the public (no matter what their political position) is at risk.
I think Boris cares about the economy. A bit anyway.
DO you actually really think the person running the UK doesn’t care either about the people who will die or indeed it’ economy ? It’s not impossible the guy could die himself. But he doesn’t care ?
Come on, lets be sensible for a moment.
Have you heard him speak? He's all about sorting the wheat from the chaff, getting rid of the dead weight, letting the cream rise to the top, levelling up. This sort of thing is right up his street. He might not want to actively kill people, but I bet he'll be more drawn to considering the upsides of a pandemic than most.
Even if he doesn't care about the economy I'm pretty sure he cares a lot about boris, a man in his 50s, in a high stress job, who I'd hazard a guess is morbidly obese, not exactly where you'd want to be in this.
The Koreans have got on top of this by extensive testing and contact tracing not really by locking things down,
So a lot like here so far then?
Are you just upset you've not been tested?
Boris only cares about the economy* insofar as it might get him re-elected.
Make no mistake, that right there is a functional** psychopath.
* you can substitute any thing you like here for economy. Go on, try it. The sentence still works.
** and I am really very much stretching the definition of "functional" here.
Do you actually really think the person running the UK doesn’t care either about the people who will die or indeed it’ economy ? It’s not impossible the guy could die himself. But he doesn’t care ?
He's not going to die himself. Don't be ridiculous. He'd need to come into contact with people. No chance of that. If you think he disappeared during the floods (he basically went on Holiday for 10 days) just wait until you see the hiding from the public you're about to witness now. He'll go nowhere near the great unwashed.
And he doesn't give a **** about how many people die. He's a sociopath and his main minion is a psychopath
Does anyone actually think politicians are actively involved in the UK response? They are all sat ashen faced, nodding dumbly as the CMO tells them exactly what our response will be and when. None of them signed up for dealing with something as serious as a global pandemic.
Yay!!!!
Let’s celebrate the positive.
Boris out of the public eye is ok with me.
🤪
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once the free 800 ICU beds are gone it is likely to be approaching 10%>you’ve just made that up
it starts to spread in the community that’s when it goes exponential
>it doesn’t. Do you know what exponential means?
You can get the numbers of ICU beds are published by the government each month. Typically they are at 80% occupancy, so around 800 free each month. 10% of cases need mechanical ventilation in ICU in Italy. They’d die without it, so the death rate will increase dramatically once they run out of ventilators.
I definitely know what exponential means, I’m guessing you don’t from your question.
And Yay!!! Once more...
I’ve just been given the “get outa town” / “wfh till further notice” hammer thrown at me...
Which is hilarious as 99% of my working life is from home 🤗🤪🤪🥳
I only went in today to eat from one of the 9 fabulous restaurants. And the only bad thing I can add is I’ve got wind from the artichoke salad 💨💨💨💨💨💥
you are just making stuff up.
If this thread contained actual facts, from respectable sources, and useful, verifiable information, it would be useful. As it is, it's no better than the shite you see on Facebook and Twitter, and should be deleted as such.
I'm sat on a train in the centre of Cardiff reading this:
How many of those evacuated got this train home?
I'm doomed!
He’ll go nowhere near the great unwashed.
The great unwashed the the Forest and Olympiakos owner who's worth millions upon millions ? The vierus won't just infect poor people.
Just so we're clear does 'lockdown' include riding your bike in the woods?
Just so we’re clear does ‘lockdown’ include riding your bike in the woods?
No chance.. 🙂 It's top of my list for the rest of the week if we get sent home 🙂
you are just making stuff up.
If this thread contained actual facts, from respectable sources, and useful, verifiable information, it would be useful. As it is, it’s no better than the shite you see on Facebook and Twitter, and should be deleted as such.
It does but finding them amongst the “We’re all going to die” “Let the old people die it’s good for the economy” and other more serious discussions makes it difficult to find them. However, it is not breaking the forum rules or giving guidance so it does not need deleted.
tbf if you come here looking for serious medical advice then you're in trouble!
I can't wait for the forum to dig into the mathematical nitty-gritty of the pitfalls of exponential vs sub-exponential disease forecasting. I feel this is what this place was made for. 🙂
Who the **** goes looking on a cycling forum for facts about a highly contagious virus?
However, it is not breaking the forum rules or givi
Fair enough...you must be kept busy enough with the "old and sick should just die" brigade
Who the **** goes looking on a cycling forum for facts about a highly contagious virus?
Who looks on Facebook or Twitter? People come here for all sorts of stuff, and there are often people with first-hand experience or genuine knowledge. For example, the person today posting from Italy who could say what lockdown actually meant...useful, helpful, first-hand knowledge.
People making up mortality forecasts from something their Nan heard in the shop...not so much
I'd suggest the best you can hope for is opinion.
People making up mortality forecasts from something their Nan heard in the shop…not so much
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Unfortunately some people don’t have the intelligence to see what is coming, even though it is happening right now in Italy, I suspect you’ll have a different opinion in a couple of weeks when we are in Italy’s situation.
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Unfortunately some people don’t have the intelligence to see what is coming, even though it is happening right now in Italy, I suspect you’ll have a different opinion in a couple of weeks when we are in Italy’s situation.
Ok.
You're making up the UK being Italy. It's not.
You're making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
You're making up a trend that doesn't exist.
You're making up that you're better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what's coming.
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc.
Suspected case in a school here in Cardiff. If confirmed, my wife might be WFH for two weeks cos she works with lots of people who are related to the school.
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc
Couldn't agree more
Ok.
You’re making up the UK being Italy. It’s not.
You’re making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
You’re making up a trend that doesn’t exist.
You’re making up that you’re better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what’s coming.
Specifically what am I making up, your comments above are just a load of vague waffle
Looking at Italy should at least make people take this seriously & follow any guidelines issued.
Number of free ICU beds is a complete red herring, as any plan will include re-purposing, prioritisation, private beds, etc.
I’m sure we will be able to rustle up a few more spare beds, but people aren’t going to stop having heart attacks, road accidents, strokes etc. so they won’t be able to free up all of the 4000 ICU beds we have.
Italy is already overwhelmed. Another 168 dying today. They haven’t got enough ICU beds to cope with this.
Considering how many urgent cancer ops get cancelled due to lack of ICU beds, I'm not sure there's extra slack in the system
I found this informative if you have the time to listen to it.
Specifically what am I making up, your comments above are just a load of vague waffle
Okie dokie...
You’re making up the UK being Italy. It’s not.
An approx 10x growth in a week, if that continues we’ll be in Italy’s position in less than 2 weeks.
Only we're not Italy, if we were we'd be in the same position now, since the first case was the same day. Which leads us to..
You’re making up cases no-one knows about in Italy to explain why its worse there than here, or south Korea or China.
The likely reason for that is Italy missed a lot of cases initially and have done a fraction of the testing Korea has done. Although the numbers of cases is similar to Korea, deaths are much higher which would imply they are a few weeks further into their outbreak and actually have far more cases than their tests show
Only no one knows about these cases, except you, unless...
You’re making up a trend that doesn’t exist.
As it takes 2-6 weeks to “recover”, they have more recoveries as their outbreak has been running longer.
Ah, so a recovery time which should be global by your maths is massively better in Italy [where they're all doomed] than south Korea [where everything is rosy.]
You’re making up that you’re better at this than PHE, WHO the NHS and all the people who really do have the intelligence and the data to see what’s coming
Anyone else believe the government have got their strategy really wrong on this...
...China have shown this can be contained, so why aren’t we doing the same. The sooner we act aggressively the more easily it can be stopped with less disruption and less death/suffering.
I just popped in to Morrisons on the way home for a couple of odds and sods and the couple in front of me at the checkout had a whole trolley full of UHT milk. Literally gallons of it!
Thick as ****ing mince!
Please indicate exactly what you think I’m making up.
Your 10% death rate..show me one expert who thinks that there will be a 10% death rate?
10% requiring ICU.
No ICU, no life.
A situation best avoided.
Only we’re not Italy, if we were we’d be in the same position now, since the first case was the same day. Which leads us to..
You want to look at the chart which overlays the case growth of all the european countries, you do.
I just popped in to Morrisons on the way home for a couple of odds and sods and the couple in front of me at the checkout had a whole trolley full of UHT milk. Literally gallons of it!
Thick as ****ing mince!
One of my neighbours has been doing that for months with milk, flour, eggs and other dried goods but of course they do own a cafe. I’d can imagine it would look like a panic buy to anyone passing by on their high horse.
You want to look at the chart which overlays the case growth of all the european countries, you do.
So, given case 1 in both the UK and Italy it's the same day, how are we 13.5 days behind Italy if the growth rate is broadly similar?
I'm no fields medal winner but, if I take a number X and increase it by a factor Y 39 times to get Z, no matter how many times I do that, if X and Y are the same i'll get the same value of Z.
Drac - who’d go to a cafe that served UHT milk? I think this guy had the last word on that...
"Milk gets sour y'know. Unless it's UHT milk, but no-one drinks that... because its shite!"
10% requiring ICU
Fair enough if 10% in italy require ventilation... That is significantly higher then the number which is being quoted everywhere else however, which is 5% classed as serious and 2/3rds of those require ventilation. Still not great though I'll admit.
That said..it's 10% of known cases. I'd be staggered if the real number of infection is anywhere near as low as 9000. That's only 0.015% of the population...Or around 1 in every 7000 people. Some folks have said it could be closer to 10 times that number who are infected, which would tie in with fact so many folks returning from Italy have caught it.
So, given case 1 in both the UK and Italy it’s the same day, how are we 13.5 days behind Italy if the growth rate is broadly similar?
Because the first case reported in the country is not necessarily the start of the spread - with such a very low number, if cases are successfully detected early enough and contacts traced it could be stopped from spreading. Look at the case rate in the UK - a few isolated cases, then only later does the number start to rise.
Upshot of the above - the UK got lucky with it’s first few cases, Italy did not.
Line the graphs up to the start of the “rise”, not the first case and they look like the linked graphs.
Drac – who’d go to a cafe that served UHT milk? I think this guy had the last word on that…
“Milk gets sour y’know. Unless it’s UHT milk, but no-one drinks that… because its shite!”
B&Bs love a bit of UHT but yes Pat was right.