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I’ve spent the last couple of months dismayed at people who conflate mask wearing with the imposition of a fascist state. It’s really not, and you would do well to think about true fascism.
Would you say that Japan, where people routinely wear masks, is a fascist state?
No I wouldn't. But I don't think he was saying that either. The sentence you quoted sounds quite desperate to me. And I understand that - if the status quo holds I may never see my mother or my siblings again. Now that's an extreme example, but I think lots of people are genuinely afraid that we won't ever go back to normal. Of course, there are also people conflating wearing masks with being in a fascist state. As you imply, that's actually quite insulting.
Mask wearing has nothing to do with fascism. Preventing parliamentary scrutiny, refusing to talk to the press, giving ultimate power to an unelected person, subverting the rule of law, undermining an independent judiciary - these are all hallmarks of fascism and this government is doing all of these and more.
The hallmark of fascist dictatorship is the imposition of trivially inconvenient rules for the good of the most vulnerable in society.
Er, nope.
Preventing parliamentary scrutiny, refusing to talk to the press, giving ultimate power to an unelected person, subverting the rule of law, undermining an independent judiciary – these are all hallmarks of fascism and this government is doing all of these and more.
I think these are the hallmarks of an authoritarian regime, not just restricted to fascist ones.
Er, nope.
Did you not read the irony?
Er, nope.
This is a very welcome move:
https://www.nursinginpractice.com/latest-news/government-to-give-nurses-access-to-clear-face-masks/
Hmmm.
Sorry richpenny!
Just seen a mate, who spent the first wave panicking about his daughter and her immune suppressing transplant drugs, post a pic on FB of them and their extended family filling their living room to watch the Leeds match yesterday.
🤦♂️
At this point, it seems like a load of bobbins.
Do they have restrictions like this in Sweden?
The difference now is that it will bump the rate up in the run into flu and cold season, so at the worst possible time.
I think we've got two games this winter - what happens interns of new infections and what happens when the infected who are suffering ongoing issues from infection are impacted on by cold / flu season. We now have a new group of vulnerable people compared to previous winters.
The government has had six months to get ready for winter - instead the approach seems to have been ideological riven response which has let us with a xxxt-show. No doubt the excuse will be wave two is inevitable we are doing are best but wave two; can't be helped excuses. Thankfully some scientists are pointing we are in wave one and it's getting away from us again.
The government has had six months to get ready for winter
Indeed, and even their own announcements about what would be required before now (‘vital’ contact tracing app, hundreds of thousands of people being tested a day) have been hot air…
https://twitter.com/gabriel_pogrund/status/1305047756151627776?s=21
At this point, it seems like a load of bobbins.
What is “bobbins”?
Do they have restrictions like this in Sweden?
Measures taken in Sweden have been mostly voluntary, rather than legally enforced. They have been hit much harder than their neighbours both in terms of health an their economy. They’ve still done better than us though, in both respects. Would their “social responsibility rather than legally imposed” approach work here anyway?
It's very obvious to anyone trying to get a test that they system is not working
With a 5+ day delay on results & 1000s unable to access tests
Our case numbers will be much higher than the official case number & R number
French cases per 100,000 have gone up crazy in just over a week
https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1304842301781536774?s=19
Green <25 , orange 25-50, red 50+ per 100,000
We are pretty close to the 'social responsibility' approach here anyway, given the lack of serious enforcement, so you can judge for yourself
I think these are the hallmarks of an authoritarian regime, not just restricted to fascist ones.
Label it what you will....
Mask wearing has nothing to do with fascism.
So lets go with populist authoritarian?
You must 'wear a mask' but just because we tell you. We will not be telling you HOW to wear a mask to protect yourself and others. If you wish to wear a loose one or pull it down over your nose go ahead so long as you comply.
You however MUST NOT wear a mask when in a classroom (or in the houses of parliament).
Either of these rules only applies if you are not a member or "advisor" of the regime.
If that is the case feel free to test your eye-sight and you must vote for illegal bills.
Again, call it what you want... Mussolini and Hitler just picked popular sounding names for "The will of the people".
It’s very obvious to anyone trying to get a test that they system is not working
With a 5+ day delay on results & 1000s unable to access tests
Our case numbers will be much higher than the official case number & R number
Sounds like it's working as intended.
Just seen a mate, who spent the first wave panicking about his daughter and her immune suppressing transplant drugs, post a pic on FB of them and their extended family filling their living room to watch the Leeds match yesterday.
It's hardly surprising though.
She has presumably been forced into school with 1000+ other kids and not even allowed to wear a mask vs members of the family?
Our school says "we are following the scientific advice from the government"
Since when has the government issued "scientific advice"?
One of our neighbours keeps having parties. Except she is a Nurse at one of the local GP surgeries. FFS.
My son's been doing Dominoes deliveries, and he said there have been some big orders even during lockdown, but this weekend they have had a few big ones.
Lots of young people don't seem to give a shit and flock to packed pubs or house parties. If I see people hanging out and not wearing masks it's always teens/youth.
The piece in today's Times is pretty damning about the testing system, how are they getting it this wrong with the amount of our money they are spending
Curtain twitching central on here today!
Again, call it what you want… Mussolini and Hitler just picked popular sounding names for “The will of the people”.
Jeepers, now that really is a lot of old “bobbins”!
And in terms of young folk gathering, I find it difficult to be too judgemental... thinking back to when I was 18 not certain I’d still be sticking to the rules after 6 months of life-on-hold
I’d like all that ^^^^^ applied to the Brexit process, new trade deals, and planning/building as well. No more centralising power with Gove, Cummings and the booster after dinner speaker.
Well indeed but the point is that Covid is a godsend to Cummings et al - the chance to shovel masses of cash to pals without oversight and simultaneously divert from the dumpster fire that is Brexit. A few people died. Big deal.
Curtain twitching central on here today!
Your name will also go on the list! What is it?
Probably more interesting than the it's the highest number of new cases since... is we are now at the same number of daily cases as 31st March - 2nd April depending on if you are using 7 day rolling or actual daily. Anyone got an estimate of where we would be once you factor in the difference in testing regimes?
it’s always teens/youth
Depends where you look. If you went to the garden centre today, I doubt the packed out cafe would contain many teens or youths.
It’s hardly surprising though.
She has presumably been forced into school with 1000+ other kids and not even allowed to wear a mask vs members of the family?
Actually, she's now at uni locally and is mostly distance learning, which makes it weirder, if anything.
> deleted some Daily Mail nonsense <
That's it. Blame the young people. It's all their fault, just like the government and the Daily Mail reported. Perhaps you should reflect on the government's catastrophic failures rather than being manipulated by misdirection into blaming young people. I'm nearly 50.
kelvin, what happened to kimbers' post showing a graphic printed in the DM some months ago?
Your post suggests you deleted it; that's a mod level action.
Have you unintentionally outed yourself as a stealth mod?
It's all very well inviting dissenting voices, but if those voices are actually materially harmful, then what end is served by inviting them in?
I could be strongly of the opinion that a daily draught of mercury is good for the constitution - and it would be supported by medical practice 200 years ago - but you would be remiss, surely, if you didn't warn people to disregard my opinion, no?
I'm always up for new stuff, but let's keep the 5G-turning-frogs-gay for elsewhere can we?
Let's keep it clean here.
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
Adults however, should know better and lead by example for the younger generation. Just follow the rules and dont be stupid.
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
As to trying to blame the young, they're just doing what anyone else would be doing their age. Its not a large enough risk to them so they'll crack on with life. If this was the zombie apocalypse then that attitude might be different.
Your post suggests you deleted it
I posted a graphic from a tweet by a Guardian journalist claiming to be the alert levels the government announced earlier this year. Turned out to be quite different to what the government actually published… and was from the Daily Mail.
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The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
This.
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Its not a large enough risk to them so they’ll crack on with life.
You know different teens and youths to me… those I know have taken seriously the social distancing aimed at protecting people other than themselves. They’ve gone well beyond government advice and rules.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
Did you vote in support of his record about reducing welfare payments? Can you imagine how reducing the support of disadvantaged people can contribute to health issues which then cause an increased risk of Coronavirus?
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/24887/jason_mccartney/colne_valley/votes#welfare
The people to blame are the selfish ones who gather like cattle on the beach, in the pub, throw parties, etc. Young people are ti blame too; looking around my college the majority of them are not socially distancing at all.
It's well known that beaches didn't lead to a massive rise in cases. My perspective is that in locations where people feel comfortable, like work, school, college etc. they will often forget to social distance effectively.
And finally, blaming an entire demographic is somewhat counter productive. Especially when that group has virtually no power to effect meaningful change. The government has that, look at what they're doing with it!
Cases going up- deaths still going down even with lag effect
Boris can shove his rule of six up his arse
DrJ
Well indeed but the point is that Covid is a godsend to Cummings et al – the chance to shovel masses of cash to pals without oversight and simultaneously divert from the dumpster fire that is Brexit. A few people died. Big deal.
Anything is a godsend to populism.
If it wasn't Covid it would be immigrants or just making a crisis
"Blame the EU for forcing us to sign an oven ready deal"... "the Courts for upholding laws" ...
And finally, blaming an entire demographic is somewhat counter productive. Especially when that group has virtually no power to effect meaningful change.
Blaming someone who can't vote or never will vote for you is extremely productive.
Yeah when I voted for Jason McCartney I voted based on his pandemic handling abilities.
I assume you voted for him, knowing the consequence would be Boris Johnson (notionally) running a country for 5 years. I can only assume you were content with that and knew of his record as Mayor of London and Foreign Secretary.
If any good comes of this, the electorate may in the future vote for the right people capable of dealing with such black swan events rather than TV personalities who can bluster their way through a hard hitting interview from Phil and Holly.
My eldest daughter started school 10 days ago and yesterday developed a snotty nose and cough. The cough isn't continuous and she doesn't have other covid symptoms so as she felt well and keen to go she is in school today. Hopefully catching her coughs as well as she did all day yesterday, and washing her hands. I'm not particularly worried it's covid, but it is clearly a reminder that 4 and 5 year olds spread Corona viruses and similar to reach other readily at school and the school's measures won't stop that (hopefully they will limit it at least a little though). It feels like just a matter of time before covid in schools is a regular occurrence. I hope the school's/government will cope with it and the closures, but I fear it'll be little better at all than the march to July closures.
the electorate may in the future vote for the right people capable of dealing with such black swan events rather than TV personalities who can bluster their way through a hard hitting interview from Phil and Holly.
Fat chance, we live in the age of Ice Dancing Celebrity Love Island. The electorate's insterest in figuring out who are the right people is as near to zero as makes no difference.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
The Conservative Government and the people who voted for them are to blame for the poor handling in the U.K.
This 100%! Yes we did't know we would be a pandemic but, these people decided to vote for a party who can do nothing more than come up with 3 or 4 word slogans and drive a digger through a fake wall. (also with a 3 word slogan on it.) These people voted in an incompetent gov' and fell for the spin hook line and sinker. A few claps for the NHS doesn't absolve your guilt.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
That öl is a dangerous route to take. Who decides what counts as a thing that allows you to vote? Military service? Police service? NHS service? Starship Troopers (book not film) gives an idea of what that road could lead to and, given how much the military and police are shrinking, you’d soon have a really small voter pool.
On a joking note, Terry Pratchett had the right idea with the Patrician. Sadly, we do not have someone that clever and selfless to elect as a de facto dictator.
The cough isn’t continuous
Can you define continuous?
If your child is coughing do you think the school wants them?
Blaming someone who can’t vote or never will vote for you is extremely productive.
Well yes, I have assumed that the outcome we're aiming for is control over the virus, rather than of the general populace.
Maybe what we actually need is the Roman Republic, where you had to do something to earn the vote.
That's one from the house of Cummings.
Can you define continuous?
Most years my daughter gets a cold, with a cough that only manifests at night, when she's lying flat. I'd say that's not a continuous cough.
^ You can vote if you can drive partially sighted from Durham to Barnard Castle.
My eldest daughter started school 10 days ago and yesterday developed a snotty nose and cough. The cough isn’t continuous and she doesn’t have other covid symptoms so as she felt well and keen to go she is in school today.
Probably shouldn't be in school. NHS states an individual with ANY symptoms should self isolate.
Teachers lives matter too.
Probably shouldn’t be in school. NHS states an individual with ANY symptoms should self isolate.
Teachers lives matter too.
Below is the definition - but not entirely sure what constitutes "a lot" or a "coughing episode"
a new, continuous cough – this means coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours (if you usually have a cough, it may be worse than usual)
Pretty clear to me.
New cough? Keep ‘em home. Unlikely to be coronavirus, but spreading other things at the moment is probably a bit antisocial… you don’t want loads of other parents having to make the same decision you are right now, do you?
Seems pretty clear to me too, but I think we've arrived at opposite conclusions....
I think anyone with a cough does it for more than 3 episodes in 24 hrs
Masks now compulsory in Wales in indoor public spaces. Glad to see all* the staff and pretty much all the customers with masks today, in stark contrast to previously, however it was early in the morning so perhaps the chavs weren't in yet.
* bar the checkout woman.... ?
Checkout staff in our three supermarkets don't wear masks, but they are behind full perspex screens.
deaths still going down even with lag effect
Deaths are currently static and hospital admissions going up. It's not a rapid system, so don't jump the gun just yet. It's a supertanker not a speedboat.
And @thecaptain, the confidence limits shown are for the mean not the prediction interval for the daily data - it's a generalized linear model with negative binomial link function. You can think of the bands as being the range in which I am 19/20 times certain that the ROLLING 7-day mean will lie inside this band (not individual daily data).
I think TiRed deserves some kind of special badge for the efforts they’ve made to increase everyone’s understanding in this thread.
So my kids can visit the grandparents
Only if we all go grouse shooting !
Where the government drafted an exemption for their donors to the rule of 6
The way the government delayed & then shut down the committee meeting late last night so none could object to it was particularly underhanded
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1305483373385854976?s=19
Blush. I'm looking at short- and medium-term predictions that don't focus on "look-at-me" cases. To predict deaths from hospitalizations also requires the proportion of deaths in hospital, which has changed since the start of the epidemic. But even when modelled independently, it is clear that deaths are following admissions. Projection beyond about 8 weeks is largely futile at the moment.
Seems Pfizer has taken a sudden leap forward in their Vaccine plans - they seem to suggest they'll have completed their mass trial next month and will start to distribute it in November...
How likely is it massive corners are being cut to get approval before the election in November?
Projection beyond about 8 weeks is largely futile at the moment.
I think the "we can only really see this... not what you've just repeated from a headline grabbing talking point" has been the most important part of what you've done TiRed... the rest of of us have been too keen to jump on nuggets of half truths... whether they be of the "nothing to worry about" or the "guaranteed catastrophe ahead" varieties. It's understandable that we do that... but the constant drip-drip of... "this is what the latest data suggests, stop trying to use them to turn edge cases into certainties for the months ahead" has been useful for us all.
Pretty clear to me.
So what is coughing a lot then. Like an hour with no real break from the coughing? And the other part of the definition, what is an episode? It can't just be a single cough can it?
I think they'll have to be more specific, or there'll be 0 kids in school come winter.
Dosing of volunteers is unlikely to be rate determining. Even for 30,000 subjects. What will be limiting is database aggregation, data cleaning, analysis and reporting. Then when you have an impressive result - statistically fewer people catching COVID in the active group compared to placebo (P < 0.05 for a comparison of proportions affected?), then you file. For how long do you want to show evidence of protection? 1000 patient-years is 1000 patients followed for one full year (tricky for November) or 12000 patients followed for a month. Which trial offers the most information on lasting duration of any protection? What about long-term serious adverse events (like the Oxford trial)? It is a balance for vaccines and therapies. Our therapeutic is tested to see what it does within one month.
Review by regulators takes 12 months for a new chemical or biological entity - The PDUFA date is legislated by act for the FDA. Anything faster will be expedited. How much regulatory scrutiny of adverse event tables do you want? I don't do vaccines and I don't do manufacturing, but the latter is where the regulation rubber really hits the road. Graham does this.
[TD:DR] You can't cram a one-year clinical trial into a bigger-but-shorter one month trial and get the same quality long-term information.
I think they’ll have to be more specific, or there’ll be 0 kids in school come winter.
No, they'll have to have more testing available. The current guidelines for the symptoms to look out for are based on symptoms in adults... not for kids... we need to move to "if in doubt, get a test" for everyone in schools, including kids... the alternative is either lots of kids in school that shouldn't be, or lots of kids missing school that shouldn't be (or both).
[TD:DR] You can’t cram a one-year clinical trial into a bigger month trial and get the same quality long-term information.
It's like the classic "novice project manager" mistake... just because the expert estimate is 6 months with 10 people, doesn't mean that you can use your common sense to push the project out of the door in 2 weeks using 120 people.
It takes one woman nine months to make a baby, so nine women take... Is the classic project management line.
I think they’ll have to be more specific, or there’ll be 0 kids in school come winter.
Oh, to be clear... they'll need to be less specific, because it is looking as if kids often present symptoms differently to adults... and the current symptoms guidelines/list is based on how adults present. This obviously can't be done till we are able to test the hundreds of thousands of people a day that Johnson promised back in... [too long ago, I forget]... they haven't even managed to ramp up to the lower "number of tests" that Hancock promised us as a diversion from Johnson' failed "number of people" target back in... [again, a good while back].
That’s one from the house of Cummings.
I think the House of Cummings would be more content with a dictatorship.
Hey TiRed, good reading your thoughts. What software do you use for your computations and graphical representations?
My friends 9 year old has been sent home with a cough but sadly no tests to be had in Leicester where they live. Our friends with 13 yr olds at Rastrick High school are out due to a case in their year.
With tests this might work, without it seems not.
As for votes, don't forget the other big choice was Jezza and he wasn't very convincing either. He got my vote but inspite of rather than because of.
What software do you use for your computations and graphical representations?
SAS 9.4. I’ve used but am not a great fan of R. Python is fine for data, but for analytics I like SAS. Others like R because it’s free and flexible, but the language is far behind SAS for rapid simple plots and sums. Don’t get me started on speed of simulation!
Thanks gents for the concern shown.
Yes when my daughter first coughed sunday morning at breakfast, after waking up full of snot, wife and I looked at each other and both thought 'Is it?' but it was soon clear she didn't have a continuous cough. I agree I've always struggled with the definition but no, her cough is not severe, its not more than normal for her and a cough, its not continuous for over an hour, its not several bouts, it doesn't leave her breathless. I did how ever ensure i spoke to her teacher as I dropped her off this morning, I didn't want to hide her cough and made it clear I wa happy to collect her immediately if it worsened at all, and I'd checked her temperature before taking her in.
As for spreading a normal cough, or cold, that is a debate every parent has every time they have a littl'un with a minor ailment. I can't swear I made the right decision, but I will say we erred on the side of staying home to not spread colds while it was optional through nursery year. Now its not optional to attend we were keener she should go and based on how she has been all day it does seem a mild cough/cold and not more. We have been reminding her to 'catch her coughs' and have been really proud of how well she's doing it...not perfect...but does it more often than not.
If it turns out we were wrong and half the school comes down with coronavirus we'd feel awful, but we've acted with the best intentions and tried to follow school and nhs guidelines so I wouldn't feel I'd done wrong.
I'm also 99.9% sure she picked it up at school, as she's done little else to be in contact with others.
Hope she feels better soon.
Tory Scum.
Voted Conservative in the North? This is on you.
https://twitter.com/benkentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=21
This morning Priti Patel has been doing the radio studio rounds taking her turn at blustering through the testing mess… because we have more “testing capacity” now then we did have, it’s all okay, apparently. Meanwhile, at an NHS trust near you…
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54156889
NHS Providers, which represents hospital trusts in England, said staff are having to self-isolate rather than work because they cannot get tests for themselves or family members.
From kelivin's link:
The Department of Health and Social Care said testing capacity has been targeted at the hardest-hit areas following a rise in demand.
This had led to Wales' test quota being reduced dramatically despite us having local hotspots flaring up. One of my colleagues had to wait 8 days for a test which he had to travel to Bristol for. The result still isn't back but he's now out of the self-isolating period anyway so is back to work. A complete and utter shambles.
I’m also 99.9% sure she picked it up at school, as she’s done little else to be in contact with others.
Nah, not possible to pick up a coronvirus at school... they are safe as nursing homes (Boris and Hancock said so)
If it turns out we were wrong and half the school comes down with coronavirus we’d feel awful, but we’ve acted with the best intentions and tried to follow school and nhs guidelines so I wouldn’t feel I’d done wrong.
That's all any of us can aim for, and I'd like to think that your sensible and pragmatic approach would be the norm.