Forum menu
Yesterday's Gov press conference seemed solid to me. The solutions aren't going to be simple as can be seen across the world. Slacken rules one area tighten them elsewhere and repeat indefinitely.
Hands face space er moonshot.
If all else fails imaginate something
Unicorn testing army! On hoverboards!
This seems ripe for adaptation by the 2012/W1A team.
Clear guidelines to me. Just keep your distance and don't run off to the beach or a busy pub when you simply dont need to.
The problem I'm facing is people keep walking up to me and looking offended when I back away. Might have to start reporting people to hr at work who are not following very simple rules.
Clear guidelines to me. Just keep your distance and don’t run off to the beach or a busy pub when you simply dont need to.
but if you do, only do it in a specific and limited way.
Sadly, I suspect at least 1/3 will go home most weekends.
Indeed, or Glentress with the MTB club on Saturday, in multiple cars and minibus, who honestly aren't meeting up as a group...
nd don’t run off to the beach or a busy pub when you simply dont need to.
Who ever needs to go to a busy pub, or any kind of pub?
Apparently we have cases doubling every eight days or so now, which puts us at France's level in 3/4 weeks. Even if you believe that the new restrictions are likely to have any effect (it is arguable that local lockdowns with more stringent restrictions did not), you won't see this for a few weeks anyway.
Is there anyone who actually believes that another full lockdown can be avoided at some point this winter? In which case, why not learn from the mistakes you made in March and get on with it now, before we've had another couple of cycles of doubling? Or at least shut everything but schools and see if that sticks?
The PM will not enjoy newspaper headlines. Basically the Grinch who stole Christmas. It shows how there are 3 factors he will be managing politics, pandemic, economy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54096349
Is there anyone who actually believes that another full lockdown can be avoided at some point this winter? In which case, why not learn from the mistakes you made in March and get on with it now, before we’ve had another couple of cycles of doubling? Or at least shut everything but schools and see if that sticks?
And how exactly does that get funded by the UK ?
And how exactly does that get funded by the UK ?
Why do you think the alternative will cost the UK less?
I'd hope that the restrictions that will be needed this autumn can be less extensive than those that we had earlier in the year. Acting early enough is the only way to ensure this though... introduce restrictions too late... and then they have to be more extensive, and be in place longer, and will cost us far more.
We haven't had a full lock down in the UK yet anyway, let's hope we don't have to.
Anthony Costello
@globalhlthtwit
·
14h
Remember apps? Immune passports? The PMs Moonshot nonsense (no science, feasibility, evidence) has been earmarked for £100bn, almost the entire NHS budget, w contracts for Astra, Serco and G4S. This is waste/corruption on a cosmic scale.
And how exactly does that get funded by the UK ?
If we end up having to lockdown, but for longer because we dithered, just like in March, then it costs the economy more. Not to mention killing thousands more people. I can understand not learning the lessons of history, but not learning the lessons of six months ago seems a bit much.
Why do you think the alternative will cost the UK less?
I don't know yet if it will, but lockdown was not sustainable for UK economy or businesses, it was only through help from the Gov that so many stayed afloat, but they can't do that forever. So another plan is needed.. MAybe it'll work, maybe not... but the same as last time simply cannot happen ?
but the same as last time simply cannot happen ?
Agreed. Then we should learn the lesson and act sooner in the growth curve.
Clear guidelines to me. Just keep your distance and don’t run off to the beach or a busy pub when you simply dont need to.
The basics have always been clear.
Just never repeated often enough, or clearly enough, or muddied by waffle, whataboutery and (perfectly justified) critics of government policy shouting about the many flaws in the details.
And the basics have never been properly enforced, by the Police, by shops, by pubs.
In Vic, Aus, they have clearly defined 'levels of lockdown' and moving between them everyone knows which level and how to behave. Quite a contrast with here.
If we end up having to lockdown, but for longer because we dithered, just like in March, then it costs the economy more. Not to mention killing thousands more people
8 people died of it yesterday, the infection rate is rising, but the death rate isn't following it at the moment.
Lockdown isn't sustainable, you'll kill more people due to them having no income than the virus will.
As I said yesterday morning, we/the government need to decide where we're trying to get to. Zero cases/deaths isn't going to happen, so what level are we aiming for?
Rule of 6 seems to have no scientific validity for outside?
Moonshot is what's needed without a vaccine
£100bn is not enough to test 10 million daily tho
And I have 0 confidence in the government's ability to deliver
It all just seems like arm waving & tub thumping , so that we are seen to be doing something
Serco & Dom's mates will make a lot of money
I'm a close as I've ever come to just saying f*** it.
I'm a teacher and I'm expected to walk in to classes of 30 kids to teach. When I'm on duty we've got 250 kids at a time in a single room.
And I'm not allowed to go round to my mate's house, (two families 8 people) and sit in the garden and drink a beer?
Do one Boris.
I work to live not the other way round.
I’m a close as I’ve ever come to just saying f*** it.
I’m a teacher and I’m expected to walk in to classes of 30 kids to teach. When I’m on duty we’ve got 250 kids at a time in a single room.
And I’m not allowed to go round to my mate’s house, (two families 8 people) and sit in the garden and drink a beer?
It's a fair point buddy and a damn tough situation teachers etc are in, i don't envy you
I’m a close as I’ve ever come to just saying f*** it.
You won't be alone, and if this is still going on come December then you'll be with the majority.
People are already weighing up the risks and right now, they're prepared to take a chance, irrelevant of what Johnson says.
Do one Boris.
I am not sure we can blame BoJo for the pandemic, or the fact that things like schools, care, hospitals, supermarkets etc require workers to step into a scary situation with kids or public.
And, despite being no fan of BoJo or our government, the reduction in social meets is in my view a positive move to reduce the spread which is being shown to be increasing through the 'unofficial' social meets. As has been mentioned here before, cafe/school/doctors/supermarket all have good processes in place - and homes don't.
In this situation I think I am more frustrated with the numpties that have carried on regardless.
It's the outdoor rule that makes no sense
I know we don't live in California & things will be harder as weather gets worse but
Plenty could be done outside, including socialising
Contact tracing of 1245 people, found only 2 cases likely to have been caught outdoors
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1
I'm with matt on this.
I'm trying to find another source to back it up but apparently more people died of suicide in the UK in August than Covid. Some days more people have died on the roads.
We need to take steps to minimise unnecessary risks, but if we keep focusing on Covid at the expense of everything else, the long term death toll will potentially be as great.
Plenty could be done outside, including socialising
It could be. If people could be relied upon to keep two metres apart.
Some of our anger and frustration needs to be turned on the idiots who haven't been following the basic rules and that have been linked to clusters. This isn't entirely the government's fault. Sadly the only way to deal with that behaviour would be to become a curtain twitching Stasi style Police state, which must if us have said on here we don't want.
It’s the outdoor rule that makes no sense
Gov were condemned for having rules that were too complex, so they simplify them to a single rule to cover all situations, then get condemned for doing so. Not defending them but if you want clear and simple guidance you can't expect it to run to the limit of the scientific data in every scenario.
Zero cases/deaths isn’t going to happen, so what level are we aiming for?
a) 100%
b) 99.9%
c) biffle boffle "herd immunity" baffle buffle "burn through population" biffle
So another plan is needed.. MAybe it’ll work, maybe not… but the same as last time simply cannot happen ?
'Maybe not', at this stage of the pandemic, means a lot of deaths, and seriously-ill people, many left with long term conditions as a result.
If mortality gets high enough, we will have to lockdown, or the NHS will fall over. At that point, as we experienced earlier this year, the number of weeks it takes to suppress the caseload is heavily dependent on the caseload at the time lockdown is introduced. So the economic damage of lockdown is amplified accordingly.
We are probably not at the 'full lockdown' point yet, even though positive tests are high. But I cannot believe that we are still allowing large numbers of people to mingle in pubs and restaurants, and I would be surprised if the new restrictions have anything more than a marginal effect in isolation. Whitty himself said it would probably come down to choosing schools or pubs, but it seems to me that the government is desperate to avoid that tough decision.
But I cannot believe that we are still allowing large numbers of people to mingle in pubs and restaurants
I think the view is that at home people are just not distancing at all, and when you have 10 people in 1 room doing that then transmission is high. People feel at home, they don't distant, they share food, etc.
In restaurants and bars, people are staying within their smaller groups so the transmission is much less. They're also not likely to be sharing glasses and food.
There'll be similar alcohol consumption in both places so that's not a differentiating factor.
This has certainly been the case for me. I'll sit in the chair next to me Dad at home and have a chat, and not be the full distance without really noticing. When we went for a pint we were very careful where we sat and how we interacted.
A quick walk up my High Street on a Friday night suggests that's an optimistic view, or that bar/restaurant owners have different sized rulers than the rest of us. Alcohol and social distancing do not mix.
I'm not convinced by the idea of data suggesting household parties are the work of the devil while multiple households in pubs are OK. I'd certainly like to see their workings and I do wonder if the track and trace system is robust enough to have confidence. After all, if you have a house gathering, you are going to be able to identify contacts and addresses easily in most cases. The pub system relies on everyone recording their details on entering the pub, and not scribbing 'Mickey Mouse' on the form. Perhaps the t&t system is just much worse at finding pub customers a week later, so the extent of transmission is masked?
My point is that we seem to be entering the acceleration phase of Wave 2, and this is the point where you chuck everything you can within reason at it to try to do better than we did last time - both to save lives and protect the economy. Economically, keeping schools open should be the priority.
so what level are we aiming for?
Control of as yet poorly understood COVID19 morbidity (and of course mortality) in a previously unexposed population in the absence of any pharmaceutical protection or treatment. Whilst at the same time balancing the economy, education, healthcare provision and general well being.
Whilst I have looked at testing strategies, I am skeptical of the mass testing moonshot nonsense. A bit like looking where the light is, not where the lost item might be. I've raised precisely this point - that you need to test the super-spreaders frequently so they can't super-spread. Identify those by surveillance by all means. Examples are bank healthcare staff (nursing homes with bank staff are SIX times more likely to have COVID19), teachers with high contacts, etc... One should also pool test samples at the level of intervention. If you will isolate a class, then pool 10 samples from the class into one test. You don't need to identify the individual.
My one firm prediction is that we will not be shutting schools again en masse. I don't believe there will be a second lockdown, but there will be staged management of contacts.
And now I can't visit my sister, BIL and their four children. At least their grandparents can (one from each side of the family, both live alone).
Alcohol and social distancing do not mix.
Correct, but lets not assume that we only drink in pubs. We're drinking more at home than we ever have. The difference is that the results of this drinking don't make the press.
There will be exceptions, but almost every pub I've been to has been well controlled than as people are more aware of where they are and stay in there own groups.
I also fail to see how shutting everything down again saves the economy unless you have a clear and specific end goal. Give people a timescale and an end point to aim at and they're more likely to comply.
Control of as yet poorly understood COVID19 morbidity (and of course mortality) in a previously unexposed population in the absence of any pharmaceutical protection or treatment. Whilst at the same time balancing the economy, education, healthcare provision and general well being.
Indeed, but define "control".
How many cases or deaths constitute "control"? If the populous know what "control" looks like they feel they can help go on that path.
Right now, you have a large percentage of the populous that it isn't affecting from a health perspective, they're younger, fitter and healthier, are fed up and want to get on with their lives. They know the odds are if they catch it it'll not affect them majorly.
If you tell them "we need to get here, it'll take this many weeks" they'll help, no clear goal and no clear timescale means they will be less inclined to.
I also fail to see how shutting everything down again saves the economy
It's about relative harm. If you aim to avoid full lockdown, but then get bounced into it in November by unacceptable levels of mortality, at that point you have to close everything, schools, shops, businesses, pubs, borders. And they will stay shut for longer.
Some sectors of the economy - hospitality, sport, entertainment - may have to be sacrificed/supported to allow us to keep schools and the majority of other businesses open. I'm just hoping that the government isn't blithely trying to wing it with just about everything running.
I’m trying to find another source to back it up but apparently more people died of suicide in the UK in August than Covid. Some days more people have died on the roads.
This comes back to the paradox of prevention again. People are saying Covid isn't that big a deal because the massive unprecedented efforts to stop it getting out of control have been largely effective.
It could be. If people could be relied upon to keep two metres apart.
Some of our anger and frustration needs to be turned on the idiots who haven’t been following the basic rules and that have been linked to clusters. This isn’t entirely the government’s fault. Sadly the only way to deal with that behaviour would be to become a curtain twitching Stasi style Police state, which must if us have said on here we don’t want.
The paper I cited was with no social distancing
The mass rallies & demos did not see a rise in cases, here or in the states
Obviously sharing drinks & snogging the bar man is bad but so far there is little evidence that it's anywhere near as bad as indoor.
As said above we need to open up & socialise, outdoors it's much safer
I agree with @martinhutch - the overwhelming priority has to been keeping the schools open and operating safely IMO. Primarily because we need to ensure we dont sacrife the potential of the younger generations; though also ovbiosuly if schools shut then everything else grinds down too so it helps the existing economy. If this means stricter restrictions for the rest of us then so be it. I've always felt allowing international holidays this summer was daft.
There are huge variations in what is being done in cafes, pubs and restaurants near me; from a token bottle of hand sanitiser by the door, to all staff being masked and well spaced tables seperated by room dividers that are pre-booakble only. This needs to be better standardised and policed if hospitality is to remain open. I heard a rumour of a 10pm curfew which makes a lot of sense, allowing people to go for a meal or a quiet drink but preventing proper drinking sessions.
Operation Moonshot?
More like Operation Pie in the Sky.
No real confidence from the medical profession that johnson's latest 'commitment' is deliverable.
I sense yet another U-turn approaching.
I'd go so far as to say the medical proffesion are saying it is undeliverable.
When will we see the next restictions being implemented?
Being based in Wales, I'm surprised not to have heard more from the first minister about the recent upswing. While we've had the caerphilly lockdown, he had been quite prudent in the previous full lockdown and also quite visible about what's going on
Operation Moon On A Stick is going to be another failure, just like the "world beating" Track & Trace.
Alcohol and social distancing do not mix.
Really? I've been doing that for years!
A mate who is big in shooting feathery creatures passed on a snippet that the shooting fraternity are looking to question if it can be classified as a team sport. So bigger bang parties can take place.
A mate who is big in shooting feathery creatures passed on a snippet that the shooting fraternity are looking to have it classified as a team sport. So bigger bang parties can take place.
thats actually very easy to make a shoot covid compliant. it’s outside and the pegs are very far apart and the beaters are spaced apart also.
You just need a few more vehicles so you can move the guns and beaters around in groups of six and keep the social side split also.
thing is nobody is going to see you to enforce the guidance so i expect they will just carry on as normal.
People are already weighing up the risks and right now, they’re prepared to take a chance, irrelevant of what Johnson says.
It isn't like he has any moral authority either. This is the problem with electing known liars.
You just need a few more vehicles so you can move the guns and beaters around in groups of six and keep the social side split also.
thing is nobody is going to see you to enforce the guidance so i expect they will just carry on as normal.
On the other hand anti-hunting groups could use it grass people up
It is this all getting a bit Stasi?
I heard a rumour of a 10pm curfew which makes a lot of sense
Now that would make sense. Bet you it won't happen for precisely that reason.
the overwhelming priority has to been keeping the schools open and operating safely
Whilst I agree, I dont think it can be safe to have schools fully open to all kids all the time.
Well I for one am totally convinced by operation moonshot. A great new weapon in the fight against the virus. Our first weapon, the world class track and trace was a great start but only V1. Now Boris has promised us V2 and the tide will be turned. These wonderful vengeance weapons will ensure a total and final victory over the virus.
Whilst I agree, I dont think it can be safe to have schools fully open to all kids all the time.
Indeed… and ignoring that will lead to whole school closures, when they would otherwise be preventable. One year of kids learning from home for two weeks if there is a run of positive cases is manageable… sending the whole school, or all schools, home because you were wedded to “all kids on site all the time” as a red line would be more than unfortunate.
Whilst I agree, I dont think it can be safe to have schools fully open to all kids all the time
I agree, there will needless have to be some careful balancing.
The comp. by me has been doing a huge amount of building work making tempory-ish classrooms and one way path systems to make things safer.
How many cases or deaths constitute “control”?
You never give a number. Hostage to fortune stuff. If this was ebola, we would be looking for eradication - zero cases and deaths. It is not. No additional excess mortality would not be unreasonable as an aim.
Well I for one am totally convinced by operation moonshot. A great new weapon in the fight against the virus. Our first weapon, the world class track and trace was a great start but only V1. Now Boris has promised us V2 and the tide will be turned. These wonderful vengeance weapons will ensure a total and final victory over the virus.
The adage is closer than you think too. Loads of prototype V2s in particular never got off the launch pad, collapsing and taking out a load of those it wasn't meant to. At the time it was a costly* diversion that was largely symbolic** and too late to affect the overall outcome.
*Not in monetary terms due to the 'innovative' labour practices.
**Obviously more than symbolic if you were unfortunate enough to be on the receiving end of one.
It’s the outdoor rule that makes no sense
I know we don’t live in California & things will be harder as weather gets worse but
Plenty could be done outside, including socialising
Contact tracing of 1245 people, found only 2 cases likely to have been caught outdoors
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1/blockquote >
The problem with that paper is that it's pre-print and hasn't been peer reviewed. Some obvious questions about it:
- It's largely based on case descriptions from hospitals - this is self selecting (people admitted to hospital) and doesn't give you a full picture of transmission
- It's based on descriptions of the 'venue' where the infection occurred, without saying how that venue was identified - it's just what the hospital reported it as on a website. There are likely methodological differences between the 320 hosptials, that may well make the whole thing a nonsense (e.g. one hospital could be doing detailed contact tracing, another may just be saying - where do you think you got it).
- in almost a third of their outbreaks they couldn't even identify a venueI'm sure proper scientists would find other issues with it, and maybe those could be worked through, but preprints are pretty dodgy to base anything on.
So tonight I am trying to plan activities for the Cubs, which is restarting next week with fairly heavy restrictions and risk assessments.
Apparently we are not bound by the Rule-Of-6 (according to the NYA) so we are allowed up to 15 kids and 5 leaders:
https://www.scouts.org.uk/volunteers/scouts-at-home/getting-everyone-back-together-safely/
We somehow need to develop a programme of activities that keep the kids two metres from each other and avoid using any shared equipment. Preferably outdoors. In the dark.
😳
mrsmidlife and the brownies are roasting marshmallows on camp fires in the church hall grounds tonight, all meetings planned outside, but to be called off if weather unsuitable. No good as lights get darker obviously, but making the most of the weather this week.
So a school local to me has a case only 20 kids isolating due to contact despite the bubble being 200+.
That’s in the new guidelines… “close contacts” asked to stay home, not the whole “bubble”.
How do they work out "close contacts"?
That would be an ecumenical matter.
So, like the world-beating test and trace app, we can add Covid Marshall’s to the growing list of things that definitely aren’t going to happen, then?
Well, there’s no funding for them, and they’ll have no powers… so there’s a strong chance you are going to be proved right. It’s an announcement, not a policy, again.
That would be an ecumenical matter.
Indeed. This kid is a year 11 so likely to have been in around 8 different subject classes and a tutor group. Of that 20 kids some are siblings of the close contacts.
If we learnt one thing last time it was go hard early to prevent spread 🙄
Daughter's Guide unit are meeting tonight in the local park, the unit my wife runs did the same thing earlier in the week.
Our Scout group leaders have got draft plans and risk assessments in place. Expect a monthly night hike.....
We somehow need to develop a programme of activities that keep the kids two metres from each other and avoid using any shared equipment. Preferably outdoors. In the dark.
Escape and evasion training?
Some interesting articles across the news sites around Sweden's current situation, looking like their sustainable model is working better than our 'hide and seek, right pubs open!' model....
Well, there’s no funding for them, and they’ll have
no powers…
Water cannons
The secondary my kid started at this week surprised us by sending drawings of the school all separated into zones, 1 for each year group. Other than break time where that have a year based separated area outdoors, they stay in the same class room throughout the day and only allowed to walk in their designated coloured zone which is designed to facilitate entry, exit, toilets, canteen, play grounds confined to year group. I thought that was an amazing effort by the school.
I thought that was an amazing effort by the school.
Easy to overlook the tremendous amount of work school staff have put in to try and find a solution that works with their individual sites.
I’m sure proper scientists would find other issues with it, and maybe those could be worked through, but preprints are pretty dodgy to base anything on.
Oi I am a proper scientist !😲 Well sometimes
I'm aware preprents can be dodgy, but much of covid research is in preprint right now,, & proving outdoor transmission tougher than indoor
But almost every superspreader events (which account for ~80% of cases) have been indoors
Contact tracing has shown the same pattern that indoor locations are the most likely places to catch it
https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2
We also had a brilliant experiment where 1000s of people crammed together on marches & contact tracing did not associate it with increased cases
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases
I appreciate government want to simplify things, but we also need to balance against opening up economy & socially
Outdoor interaction seems to be lower risk than indoor.
Yes not disagreeing that outdoor is likely better than indoor. Just pointing out that that preprint did not appear to particularly robust.
Yes lots of research is in preprints, but there have been a lot of very dodgy preprints out there too - made up datasets etc.
(and wasn't suggesting you weren't a proper scientist, just pointing out that I'm definitely not!)
TBF I'm a shit scientist, it's hard!
TBH moonshot might be a great success if they pop Boris and Chums in a spacex and er launch em.
I don't visit this thread much, it's been a bit entrenched and flighty for my tastes before so sorry if this has been covered.
'We've' chosen the location of our first 'mass vaccination site' in our City, the medical team who are currently working on Antibody testing are heading it up and doing the planning work now and they'll start on setting up the building(s) / sites soon.
Obviously, it's likely it will lay empty for a few months yet, but when the vaccine is ready, the speed of deployment will be "staggering", or at least that's what they're hoping for.
Let's hope so P-Jay.
Yeah I’m pretty confident.
I’m not expert but it seems very rare for a new drug / treatment to get to stage 3 of human trails before they discover its dangerous, and ‘we’ know it works as a vaccine.
Obviously it’s been paused at the moment because one of the test subjects has fallen ill, hopefully they can prove the illness wasn’t caused by the vaccine soon and it can progress again.
There’s lot of things that could go wrong, but I think it’s safe to hope / dream that next Spring / Summer will be a lot more carefree than the last one.
There’s lot of things that could go wrong, but I think it’s safe to hope / dream that next Spring / Summer will be a lot more carefree than the last one.
I'd take some stringent measures over winter if we end up in that place come spring, fingers crossed.
So a contract tracing app is to launch on the 24th September.
They're claiming it's a 'defining moment'. It is, just one that should have happened a few months ago. Strange how it works using the technology they dismissed as unworkable at the beginning.