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The case Make up is very different due to testing. So in the first wave the tests were of people hospitalised. In the second they are of community acquired infection in younger people. The hospital admission rate is what matters, then, sadly, deaths. Excess mortality is showing a slow upward trend, admissions shows a turnover (I’ll look at regions later) and deaths are currently flat.
We will see, but rates are faster in Spain and France, even after adjusting for testing. Percentage positive is of course showing increased infections and that is the gold standard for cases.
admissions shows a turnover
In Spain & France?
The concern is that we’re not watching what is happening in those countries, and not trying to learn lessons to avoid the same occurring there.
The concern is that we’re not watching what is happening in those countries, and not trying to learn lessons to avoid the same occurring there.
As if we take lessons from Johnny foreigner!
Even the Brexit cheerleaders should be able to get their heads around not making the same mistakes as other countries ahead of us with the rise in infections.
Agree that numbers of infections is not comparable because of increased and more generalised testing. But the trend and how that relates to R is important.
My issue is the general perception that it's over because hospitalisation and death rates are lower. I just don't see why those will not go back to where we were if we fully open up again. The rates are low because daily contacts are still massively down with mass WFH and,up to this week, schools and Unis being closed.
The real test will come as the impact of these additional contacts filter through.
I understand the govt strategy is to open up progressively until the rate becomes dangerously upward but do they have the courage and authority to reverse and shut down early enough to prevent the hospitalisation and death rates reach previous levels?
Excess mortality is showing a slow upward trend, admissions shows a turnover (I’ll look at regions later) and deaths are currently flat.
Interested to see what your predictions are for the north west (England). Other voices are suggesting that it is basically endemic in some of the towns around me (probably because lockdown was eased before numbers had been properly suppressed there).
The next few weeks will be interesting with schools and colleges reopening. People travelling from many different towns socialising in masses. (A couple of thousand wherein work with very little measures in place and no one enforcing anything).
Back in December we were saying Covid is Chinas problem and look what happened. Towns will be mixing with other towns.
I have a bad feeling about this!
It is most definitely NOT over and no one in authority believes it is. The question is how to balance the expected increase in cases with conflicting issues of education and economic activity. That balance has changed from the first wave, but I’d say it is somewhat precarious if honest.
Rates of increase are slower in U.K. than Spain and France. Possibly due to a slower release from lockdown measures. Our testing rate/1000 is 2.5/1000 cf 1.75/1000 in France and Spain. And personally, I think we are in a much better place than six months ago.
Even the Brexit cheerleaders should be able to get their heads around not making the same mistakes as other countries ahead of us with the rise in infections.
Cast your mind back to February/March and then see if you want to reconsider...
Mrs Nobeer has gone on the bank register for carrying out testing, looks like there's quite a recruitment drive for nurses up here to ramp up testing, couple of new locations opening up locally.
now up to 3000 cases in a day.
now up to 3000 cases in a day
2988, but its a hell of a jump all the same.
Be interesting to see if that continues or a one off explanation.
i did think of putting +-dozen but thought nah no one would be that pedantic.
It's not +/- a dozen either.
Get it right.
~3000?
see if you want to reconsider
I did say “should”.
If Johnson wanted to pull the “UK is world leading” public behind measures to avoid what’s heading our way, he could… a bit of tub thumping… “we’re not scared of a bit of social distancing, a bit of working from home when we would rather not, a bit of turning pubs and restaurants into temporary home delivery services, a bit of mixed learning and rota systems in schools… we Brits aren’t scared of the inconvience of mask wearing… the French and the Spanish might not have the backbone to beat this virus, but we do, we’ll show the world…”
It wouldn’t be my approach, but if the government wanted to act to prevent the UK following France and Spain… he absolutely is in a position to get the Brexit fans to accept what needs to happen… by selling it as “beating” the foreigners.
Wtf - 1800 to 3000 nearly in one day? That’s put us to mid April numbers - after the first lockdown started. Are we two weeks behind drastic action again? At that rate we’ll be at 5000 a day again mid next week, equalling the first wave.
****.
Calm down Kryton, testing is much higher whereas back then only those being hospitalised were tested.
Having said that I have officially moved my status to worried!
Wtf
Check the France and Spain graphs. No need to be surprised by the rapid rises in cases here as they begin to happen. We’re still well behind though. For now.
back then only those being hospitalised were tested
Indeed. You can’t compare wave 1 and wave 2 numbers, as what is being counted is different. You can look at the last few weeks to see if cases are rising or not… those are comparable figures. Hard not to think anything other than that they are rising… it might well be a blip… waiting to find out before taking extra measures to stop the spread would be a repeat of past mistakes though, I would argue. The cost of acting late is new measures will have to be in place for much longer… slower to introduce measures means you have to stick with them for longer… and that means more damage to business and education.
We are doing more testing now and much more focused testing through our attempt at track and trace, so that will lead to more positive tests in terms of absolute numbers - be interesting if the proportion of tests coming back positive is increasing or stable
Wave 1 was managed with "flattening the peak" by pushing it back with control measures to prevent overstretching the NHS.
It appears to me that they're attempting to "flatten the peak" of wave 2 by pulling it forward with opening up , and take early advantage of any NHS capacity.
The picture in Spain is similar - the number of infections back to where they were during the first wave but few deaths.
https://www.elconfidencial.com/
I got a letter from Imperial inviting me to take part in a mass antibody test. They do warn that at individual level the test is not 100% accurate but the point is to get an idea of the population as a whole. Of course I accepted - curious to see what my result is even if it's not going to change anything - so waiting for my finger pick thingy to arrive in the post!!
I am in the same position DrJ. My 6 year old son did the swab test to check current infections in the community. Came back negative so no issues there. Will be interesting to see. my wife was pretty ill with her asthma in March and fairly close to having to go to hospital so will be interesting if we did have it as a family.
I'm part of a large study that's been going on for years, and now includes looking for Covid-19. See here Fenland study ) I have to measure my temperature, blood oxygen level and heart rate every 3 days and take a blood sample every few months. It means I get all the kit to do it, which must cost a lot but I guess anything C-19 related gets funded from central govt.
We’re still well behind though. For now.
About six weeks, by my reckoning. Although it should be noted we managed to close the gap to about three weeks via governmental competence last time around.
be interesting if the proportion of tests coming back positive is increasing or stable
I've been occasionally looking at the Scottish positive rate. It seems to have risen from around 0.8% to around 1.2%. IIRC there is some WHO guidance that anything below 5% suggests the virus is under control but I don't know how they arrive at that conclusion.
Grant Schapps to make a "statement about international travel" at 3:30pm. That an international travel lockdown coming I feel? I can see Jet2 have cancelled all flights to December so maybe they saw it coming - locking down our Island following NZ & Aus examples.
Don't panic.
Matt Hancock says UK 'likely to have coronavirus vaccine by early next year
Definitely no gun jumping going on.
I thought month #3 of 2020 plus 18 more months was more like "end of 2021".
Perhaps I'm missing something but it looks to me like more Magickal Thinkering from our wonderful government.
edit: anyone know how the staffing for nightingale temporary hospitals will work this coming winter?
That an international travel lockdown coming I feel?
I think the opposite is more likely, given the pressure from the travel industry. No more quarantine, just 'use your common sense' and 'stay alert'.
<p data-reactid=".halsprg27y.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f561786a9c71d02bf1cc768.0.3.0.0:$post_4">The percentage of positive tests among people being tested for the first time was 2.3% yesterday.</p>
<p data-reactid=".halsprg27y.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f561786a9c71d02bf1cc768.0.3.0.0:$post_5">Ms Sturgeon reiterates it was 2.4% today and points out two weeks ago that was regularly below 1%.</p>
<p data-reactid=".halsprg27y.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f561786a9c71d02bf1cc768.0.3.0.0:$post_5"></p>
Ah, **** it
edit: anyone know how the staffing for nightingale temporary hospitals will work this coming winter?
they will be paid in claps.
Is the PM going to "sex" all of them then?
Nope, sorry, that's "paid in the claps", my mistake.
Thanks scotroutes
A bit more from Sturgeons briefing today (all available on the BBC website too )
<p data-reactid=".130c8466a2w.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f56199c7ada0902d827bd11.0.3.0.0:$post_1">Ms Sturgeon says the last time we had more than 200 cases was on 8 May when there were 225 cases.</p>
<p data-reactid=".130c8466a2w.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f56199c7ada0902d827bd11.0.3.0.0:$post_2">The first minister highlights "important differences" between then and now:</p>
<ul data-reactid=".130c8466a2w.2.0.0.1.0.1.0.$lx-tabs0.0.$lx-commentary.$lx-commentary.2.0.1.1.1:$post-5f56199c7ada0902d827bd11.0.3.0.0:$post_3">
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">The 225 cases on 8 May was around 7% of those tested, yesterday's 208 cases was 2.3%
</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">The estimate on 8 May was probably more of an underestimate of the true numbers than now
</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">More people are being tested now than back then
</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">On 8 May 75 people were in intensive care with Covid-19, now there are only five
</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">So far the increase in cases is not being reflected generally in new admissions to hospitals
</span><span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Younger people make up a higher percentage of positive cases now</span>
Assuming that it's a similar pattern across the UK, that might help explain what the numbers currently represent.
I've already reported it to the Mods.
I only posted some copied text off the BBC website but the forum doesn't like lists.
If we put up enough posts it should flip to a new page and fix itself.
Now that's a quality hack.
What kind of member do I need to be to post in the Penthouse Box up top?
Maybe.
Hopefully.
Well, it's not sorted yet.
interesting place to have the Reply box though.
I think we need another [s]11[/s] 10 posts
In other news, UK.GOV has managed to identify the Islands are not parts of the mainland, as long as they are completed surrounded by water.
Well, while Hancock goes on Radio 1 to tell young people not to kill their granny... others are finally talking about a Zero covid strategy (how else can you get young people back into full time on site education without them worrying about contributing to a second wave that could kill their granny?)...
https://twitter.com/RLong_Bailey/status/1302904684483670020?s=20
Thanks again mods
So that's the first local lockdown in Wales announced, Caerphilly county from tomorrow evening. No trips to Cwmcarn for a while.
Hmm who could ever have thought that telling everyone to get back on the tube, into work & using pubs & restaurants in city centres would lead to a surge in demand for testing
Not the government, anyway
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1303011775714123776?s=19
Just wait until flu season, every kid back in school swapping coughs & winter arriving in earnest
If they couldn't cope in August, it'll be chaos by November
Among all those new cases, are several at the school Johnston visited a couple of days ago to tell everyone how safe schools are. Why yes, it is the same school where they faked up a socially distant teaching backdrop for the press, by literally cramming half the kids from the class into one corner.
Don’t kill your gran.
Is no one else pissed a government minister is throwing this directly at young people, while no10 is dissing those in the education sector who are saying that much more is required from the government to stop this virus spreading via those very same young people? Young people can’t stop the spread unless the institutions they study at are given the flexibility and funding the adapt their teaching. To try and scare and instil guilt in young people, who have no real say in what is about to happen in schools, colleges and universities, or in their workplace, isn’t productive… it’s just more blame shifting from these shifty politicians.
I just saw the interview with the scientist on the SAGE group. It was pretty stark. More worrying still was how he looked and talked, verging on emotional, worried.
Thought that too, but then so would I if I could see exactly what was on the horizon but the people I was advising refused to take it seriously. As a scientist it must be destroying him emotionally.
He’s not a politician*, he’s probably worried about the potential loss of lives and loss of quality of life, rather than his own career or ego.
[ *not saying that all politicians are the same, many really care about this stuff ]
Pubs and CV19?
Courtesy of the Daily Mash...
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/alcohol/wetherspoons-calls-for-nightingale-pubs-20200831199979
reluctantjumper
Full MemberThought that too, but then so would I if I could see exactly what was on the horizon but the people I was advising refused to take it seriously. As a scientist it must be destroying him emotionally.
Add a dollop of knowing perfectly well you're going to get the blame.
Don’t kill your gran.
Is no one else pissed a government minister is throwing this directly at young people, while no10 is dissing those in the education sector who are saying that much more is required from the government to stop this virus spreading via those very same young people? Young people can’t stop the spread unless the institutions they study at are given the flexibility and funding the adapt their teaching. To try and scare and instil guilt in young people, who have no real say in what is about to happen in schools, colleges and universities, or in their workplace, isn’t productive… it’s just more blame shifting from these shifty politicians.
It's complete bullshit.
Eat out to Help Out
Mix with your mates at school
Don't kill your gran.
Cases are now on the rise in my area, spilling over from the surrounding areas where it never went away because lockdown ended when the virus was suppressed in the south of England. My kids go back to school this week. I'm not even sure that schools (or even year group bubbles) will be sent home if they get cases. A collective shrug from the tossers who run this country.
If you're shielding, or elderly, you're on your own now.
So we are warned cases are rising exponentially.
Isn’t that how it always happens when R>1 ?
If you’re shielding, or elderly, you’re on your own now.
So shielding again? Which was always on the cards as we tried to get kids back to education and get the economy moving.
From very early on in this thread people with more knowledge than me - TiRed for example - have been saying that this virus was unlikely to go away, was unlikely to get a proper vaccine or cure in the short to medium term, and would likely become another permanently circulating virus that we would have to learn to live with and learn to minimise the effects of.
The government's handling of this has made it many times worse than it needed to be but the harsh reality is that we are reaching that point now. The elderly and vulnerable must be protected, the rest of us need to careful feel our way through the problem to minimise transmission. Which may or may not involve sensible social interactions in pubs and restaurants and shops etc
My kids have gone back to school this week. They are both much happier with that social contact and normality, but they know that last week may be the last time they see my parents for weeks again. They haven't seen their other more vulnerable grand parents since Christmas, and there's a very real chance they might not see them alive again if we have a bad winter, between Covid, flu, cancer and developing dementia.
We need to find the best solution for 60 million people while protecting 10 million of them. I've no idea what the answer is. The problem is, neither do the government.
How come the media reports aren't reporting the number of deaths anymore? Just the number of cases! If you want to find out the number of deaths you have to go hunting for it as it isn't on the media reports about the virus. People dying is what all this is about isn't it?!
Granted those infected can pass it on but if no-one is dying then the infection figures are largely irrelevant. They may as well report the number of people with a bit of a sniffle.
How come the media reports aren’t reporting the number of deaths anymore?
There really aren't that many deaths, yet. There is a few weeks' lag between rising case numbers and deaths, and at the moment, a slightly higher proportion of cases appear to be in younger people, which further pushes back that increase. Once it gets into the older, sicker population again as the weather gets colder, deaths will rise.
They may as well report the number of people with a bit of a sniffle.
<sigh>
So shielding again? Which was always on the cards as we tried to get kids back to education and get the economy moving.
Well, yes, but no indication that the government is going to reintroduce shielding, or take some of the measures that were floated earlier this summer as ways to mitigate transmission to allow schools to return - such as closing pubs and restaurants in areas with higher rates. So the elderly and vulnerable are still encouraged to be out and about.
Have you had a chat with people who have 'recovered' from their brush with this "bit of a sniffle"...? Medium term effects are awful for many people... long term effects not yet known. And, yes, the figures are used as an indication of how prevalent the virus currently is, and how fast it is spreading, to give us warning to stop this getting out of control and killing thousands. Again.
I think the latest reports are of long term organ damage, particularly heart and lungs. There could be quite a few people in thier 30s right now risking their long term health for a few hours in the pub. Imagine being middle age and needing an oxygen bottle wherever you go, not being able to ride a bike etc.
There really aren’t that many deaths, yet
Thats because they now only count deaths if they happen within 28 days of a positive test result. Die on the 29th day and it doesn't count.
such as closing pubs and restaurants in areas with higher rates.
That will only work if everyone goes to school, work etc in the same place as where they live. We currently have staff and students from all over the place. High risk and low risk areas.
There could be quite a few people in thier 30s right now risking their long term health for a few hours in the pub.
And work. I'm 36 and risking my health to earn money. Teaching with no mask or social distancing. Have no choice until I find another job
Not wanting to defend this government or its policies, but the confirmed positive cases has only been a reliable benchmark since early August, which is when the testing numbers plateaued. We have no idea what the comparative positive tests were back in March / April / May, because we were only testing some of the cases admitted to hospital. The true case load can only be guessed at.
Boris is still a **** though.
How come the media reports aren’t reporting the number of deaths anymore?
Other than being reported on the BBC News at 6 and again at 10, with a handy graph showing the rolling 7 day average?
Public service broadcasting will never catch on!
Confirmed cases is not reliable because it is confounded by testing rates. The ONS survey is reliable because it is a randomised sample. That does show an increase but it won’t be as fast as the cases reported.
The next indicator is COVID-19 hospital admissions. They have ceased declining and I predict will start to grow from about mid September.
Finally the deaths indicator will follow from admissions. Now that there are protection policies in place for nursing homes, a larger proportion will sadly end up dying in hospitals, so deaths will trend (with a lag) from hospital admissions.
How come the media reports aren’t reporting the number of deaths anymore?
Numbers are low - so weekly numbers are more reliable, then averaged per day. Were at 3-10/day at the moment.
It’s not quite doom and gloom yet, and I’m not seeing “exponential growth” yet. But I do expect to do so. I have predicted 30-60 deaths per day at the end of November. I hope that’s accurate as it’s an upside.
Granted those infected can pass it on but if no-one is dying then the infection figures are largely irrelevant. They may as well report the number of people with a bit of a sniffle.
I had 'a bit of a sniffle' back in Feb/March.
I've gone from daily cycling, running 50-60km a week, and general good fitness to struggling to jog 4km and as-yet not fully understood heart issues. I'm 31.
I'm not dead, no, but it certainly seems worth reporting.
I'm pretty sure Jekkyl wasn't belittling the effects of covid, more having a pop at the stats and visibilty of.
wasn’t belittling the effects of covid, more having a pop at the stats and visibilty of
Apart from the fact that stats are visible... (we know because we see and read/hear them daily online, on radio and on TV)... and the bit about a "sniffle". It's all a bit "media scare story", isn't it. Hearing a lot of that at the moment.
I’m pretty sure Jekkyl wasn’t belittling the effects of covid, more having a pop at the stats and visibilty of.
Apologies if I got the wrong end of the stick. I'm a touch sensitive about people underestimating/belittling the potential effects.
COVID19 morbidity has largely been ignored. I’ve gone from second cat racer to now thinking about riding my bike this week. Cases and deaths can be measured, so they are. Complications associated with net toon with a novel virus that may hit tissues as yet unknown, is a completely different matter. That requires time and diligence. We aren’t at that point yet.
Well, it will be a sign that they are ready to act, at least. A steady ramping up of social distancing measures this autumn looks like the approach… but will they keep the public informed and get them onside?
klunk - you beat me to it.
I think johnson is beginning to panic - in an Etonian way, of course.
It dumps more pressure and responsibility onto the police.
'Measured response'? Pathetic attempt at news management.
Co-incidence that brandon lewis, earlier today, said the gov would break a signed international agreement which was guaranteed to be Wednesday's media headline then this is leaked before any formal announcement.
Look! A squirrel!
It's been leaked after the main news progs; newsnight is on live with a prepped running schedule so they can't get into detail.
We're being played for fools.
Sensible measure really, but no use if there's not enough resource to enforce it properly
No a sensible measure would be shut pubs and restaurants, no private gatherings but you can still hit the pub, mental. The number of cases is ramping up fast, it's across the country, not just hot spots and now is definitively linked to social interactions and pub going, not just limited to specific communities or neighbourhoods.
now is definitively linked to social interactions and pub going,
The experts say otherwise.