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I prefer James O'Brien's version,
Heads... Shoulders...Knees and Toes...Knees and Toes....and repeat....
Tired, how can you just pick a Monday for cases, surely it’s over a few days?
Hackney has had 3 blips of 4.5/100k cases on certain days over the last 2 weeks but nowhere near the rapid increases seen elsewhere. One to watch definitely but that’s not to say it will increase enough for lockdown intervention (yet).
So Burnley, Pendle, Rossendale & Hyndburn not on Tired's list yet slapped with restrictions.
As Binners has pointed out though there's a lot of politicking going on in selecting the areas, Rossendale has low cases despite being surrounded by areas with big rises, western Calderdale is pretty rural but the other end borders Bradford and includes Halifax.
ElShalimo you may not like what he's saying but there is a some truth to what he's said, most of the northern areas mentioned by Tired do have large Asian populations living in terraced housing and it's been reported locally that the rate of rise in cases is higher in these communities than others. It's wrong though to label the whole BANE community like he did, it's specific groups within that community in specific locations.It's also wrong to call them immigrants, they are British citizens and many are second, third and fourth generation.
Tired, how can you just pick a Monday for cases
I report on Mondays the result of a weighted mean over the previous week (which is why the higherst Z score threshold is not 2, btw, for anyone who noticed). Where there are too few reports for that week (missing days), then I remove that region as the data is too sporadic for calling a trend.
ElShalimo you may not like what he’s saying but there is a some truth to what he’s said, most of the northern areas mentioned by Tired do have large Asian populations living in terraced housing and it’s been reported locally that the rate of rise in cases is higher in these communities than others.
Indeed but it's not because those communities have not been taking the matter seriously.
Relax – johnson says he’ll be working flat out during the summer hols.
But then immediately said he'd be going on holiday.
Indeed but it’s not because those communities have not been taking the matter seriously.
From some of my colleagues who live in Leicester, some of whom are BAME, some sections of that community have not been taking it as seriously as they should, and the nature of some of the working environments, multigenerational households etc is thought to have been a factor in the spread.
Given that that community seems to have worse outcomes if they catch it, it's vital that measures are taken to reduce the spread in any area with a spike. Leicesters lockdown seems to be bringing numbers down nicely now.
I would hate to think that the BAME population was being put at greater risk because it was in some way felt to be "politically incorrect" to try and tackle the Covid problem in such areas.
@stumpyjon - your posts on this thread in the last 24hrs are doing a lot of finger pointing at "Asian" communities.
If you look a bit deeper, there are also deprived areas in all of these towns that are predominantly populated by the white non-working class. Constantly repeating look at them Asians doesn't paint you in a positive light (whether you mean it or not). We all know that in these estates the residents tend to do whatever they want most of the time.
There are lots of people being naughty and not following the rules. It's been like this since the start of lockdown.
Range of sources for you, sorry if it doesnt fit your world view
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53414937
Rossendale is predominantly low income non Asian communities living closely together in terraced housing, we're well down the rankings at the moment.
I suppose this is the community takings things seriously
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-53464840
There is surely a basic link between cases and poverty - less money = poorer housing, more people sharing, less space, more liklihood of having to go out to work, more use of public transport etc, all of which must increase the risk of infection. Not so much a race thing or 'them on that estate can't follow the rules' as a poverty one.
There is surely a basic link between cases and poverty –
I think that has been shown in some of the data/reports, but the correlation is higher in some areas based on ethnicity than simple poverty.
Given how muddled government messages have been to those of us to whom English is a first language, it must be a nightmare getting the messages across in communities where it may not be, especially when some of the guidance cuts across important religious and cultural "norms".
I'm trying not to make it sound like I'm blaming the BAME communities, but I can see how it adds extra complications.
Range of sources for you, sorry if it doesnt fit your world view
I don't see anything in those articles (the bits I could see) that address the question of taking things seriously. Asian communities are generally different, in income, living situation and working situation. That's left them more vunerable to cv - none of them are a function of negligence.
I'm sure the BAME communities are 'a' factor, but no more than white chavvy scum disregarding any guidelines & common sense what so ever. My mates sister is a hairdresser and is complaining about all the karens trying to insist they don't need a mask when in the salon... it really beggars belief...
Just driven a train in to Blackpool. Well over 400 passengers on it from when we left Preston. Face covering compliance looked like about 30% from what I could see on the CCTV. Glad I'm not going to be driving one out of Blackpool about 7-8pm tonight.
I believe that one train to Southport this morning was so full it was leaving people behind unable to board from Wigan onwards.
MoreCashThanDash
SubscriberAs I read it, there’s been no increase in numbers linked to pubs, restaurants, returning to work etc. In all those places, social distancing, 2 metres, facemasks etc still apply, and from my experience, in an area which isn’t a problem yet, those measures are generally being respected.
I'm not sure how you can draw that conclusion tbh. The current increases are timed very well to be precisely because of those things. Certainly I see nothing to suggest that there's been no increase- in fact it's statistically improbably that there's been no increase related
(that's not to say that any increase would be a problem; all of these activities had a risk and some increase is to be expected/probably inevitable, and hopefully planned for)
Scottish government briefing- which as ever was coherent and well delivered and explained- made it very clear that the increases we're seeing up here are mostly in the 20s to 40s, exactly the people who would be most affected by changes in working and socialising. And our smaller numbers make this sort of thing much easier to consider, we don't get the big-numbers confidence that England gets but we have the ability to look at each individual case in much more detail.
DrJ, Sorry that wasn't aimed at you, the last link shows there have been some issues, big funeral at a mosque, 250 people attended, the Imman tested positive later.
Look, I'm just pointing out the correlation, which is not the same as causation, poverty, multi generational housing, tightly packed housing, totally garbage government guidance delivered in an incoherent manner are all key drivers for the increase, but we're not seeing the increases everywhere and there is a pattern.
This
I would hate to think that the BAME population was being put at greater risk because it was in some way felt to be “politically incorrect” to try and tackle the Covid problem in such areas.
And areas that are less impacted are treated accordingly. I thought they were supposed to be locking down by postcode, that seems to be BB, OL, HX, BL & M.
This is all going to backfire spectacularly, people can see right through the advice and its going to result in bigger issues going forward, they should be locking down specific towns and areas, not blanketing large areas.
And on a lighter note Ilkley has a BD postcode so it's included on the naughty list.
Oh my....
EEk that will make the Rossendale outrage seem like a polite tut.
The northern towns we’re referring too here are as racially and culturally segregated as apartheid South Africa. There is zero integration. None whatsoever.
Specific areas of Rochdale, Oldham and Blackburn have had far higher incidence of infection in their largely Asian populations right from day one. The reasons for this are both societal, based on widespread poverty, type of employment etc, and also cultural. It’s a complex mix that seems to be creating a perfect storm.
This is common knowledge. We’ve seen the figures. We’re not stupid.
I can tell you that the common consensus from everyone i’ve been talking too today in Rossendale is that this is total bollocks and we’ve been included in this purely because of the government being wise to racial sensitivities in the area. It’s not like Boris hasn’t got form on the old racism front, is it? Specifically islamoaphobia
My prediction is that once Eid’s out of the way, they’ll leave it a few days, so as not to make it too obvious, then lift it. A week, tops.
Binners I dearly hope you're right about the lifting of the restrictions.
You're absolutely right about the segregation, despite the huge amount of money spent on new schools in Burnley and efforts to integrate the communities its as segregated as ever. If you don't live in the area it's difficult to realise how separate the communities are.
I'll raise your Ilkley BD postcode outrage with the Ribble Valley and BB - although no mention of an RV lockdown
My prediction is that once Eid’s out of the way, they’ll leave it a few days, so as not to make it too obvious, then lift it. A week, tops.
Completely agree, week or two tops.
Kirklees rate has been falling for the past 5 weeks.
My prediction is that once Eid’s out of the way, they’ll leave it a few days, so as not to make it too obvious, then lift it.
This is just brilliant!
Meanwhile my mothers wake on Monday has just been cancelled by the venue because they are unsure what they’re allowed to offer and don’t want to risk being shut down.
Utter shambles.
If you were in any doubt as to how much of an utter dickhead Laurence Fox was after his previous outburst then this should finally allay those doubts
Commiserations Stu. Sorry to here that.
It is indeed a complete and utter shambles. Like every single thing they’ve done since they were voted in. Dom and Dommers entire time in office has had them staggering blindly from one car crash to the next
Unfortunately for all of us, I fear they’re only just getting into their stride and there’s far worse to come.
I’m guessing a totally chaotic no deal Brexit-related economic collapse, 6 million unemployed and then a massive winter second wave due to their biblical incompetence
I fear you’re not far off in that.
😞
We ate out this lunch for the first time since lockdown. Phoned pub in advance to book in and was told about what we could and couldn't do. Due to new local rules, only your household at the table, don't leave table etc etc. We sat outside and the pub was keeping capacity down to less than 50% of tables. God knows how they will survive this. They were worried as they had ordered loads of food in and if lockdown was tightened any more it would go to waste.
My mate is coming over, from Halifax to Leeds, to go for a ride tomorrow from my house, can he come in for tea after, or do I send his disease riddled carcass straight home for fear of the feds busting us?
Tom, as neither johnson nor any of his incompetent sycophantic clown circus of a cabinet could find their own arses with both hands and the police are distancing themselves from the latest johnsonian emissions...I think you're safe to invite your mate in for afternoon tea.
Tom, he shouldn't actually be coming over to ride. The guidance seems to be "stay in your area".
With regard to the discussion about it being the Asian community that are the source of the rise, even if it were true (and so far it's purely conjecture, there's probably as much evidence that it's the fault of the pubs being opened up) it's a dangerous idea to spread. My mum's next door neighbour said yesterday "well, it clearly relates to the Asian people so I'm going to press on with my barbecue for my mates". If white people are being told by Craig Whittaker MP that another race is to blame they will carry on as normal which is a foolish thing to do if there is a genuine risk in the area.
I'm not sure that's correct. I think you can go about your business but not enter someone else's house or garden, or meet them indoors like in a pub?
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/north-west-of-england-local-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do
I don’t think the complaint here is that it’s some exclusively Asian issue. It isn’t. Trafford has seen big increases too, which has no notable Asian community, but a large affluent white one.
The complaint in the North West is that this isn’t really a ‘local’ lockdown at all. Far from it. So to use that term is misleading. Greater Manchester is huge with a population in millions.
A lot of the areas locked down (ie: Rossendale) had few cases to begin with, and rates have been steadily falling, not rising, yet have been lumped in with areas with rising rates and locked down for reasons that haven’t been adequately explained.
Maybe that’s down to the government’s absolutely woeful communications, but it’s unleashed a lot of animosity and resentment, and a lot of people in these areas aren’t going to cooperate this time.
Munrobiker
Where's the advice to stay in your area, you've made that up, they guidance says you're not to meet up with other households indoor or in private gardens, meeting up elsewhere outside and maintaining social distancing is fine, as is going to the pub with complete strangers.
85% of new infections in Blackburn in mid July was people with South Asian heritage. There's a large proportion of that community don't frequent pubs.
The conjecture and assumption making seems to be coming from you.
It is still a fair point about other communities not becoming complacent but this blanket ban to control Eid (people from all communities agree on this based on the local news last night) which has included areas with low rates of Covid 19 is having precisely that affect, people know what the numbers are, where the issues are and are fuming. They are now saying stuff the guidance (it's not law yet according to the official statenent) and I really doubt the police will get involved, they couldn't even stop mass gatherings before which were clearly against the rules.
Also, the lockdown rules make no sense.
Our mates run a cafe bar. Yesterday I went in to see them as I’m doing some design work for them. We sat down indoors in their place and had a meeting to go through some stuff. Because this is ‘work’ this is apparently fine.
But we’d also invited them round for a barby last night, which we cancelled because apparently it’s not safe for them to come round and sit in our garden.
Make sense of that for me, if you can? Because I can’t.
It seems I have, thankfully, got the bit about leaving the area wrong. I was convinced I'd read it somewhere but because the guidance so far has been so muddled I can't remember all of it.
Stumpyjon, basically everything you have come out with apart from that stat for Blackburn is conjecture. If you can present similar data for every other area that has these restrictions imposed and then prove that the increase doesn't correlate with the reopening of pubs and restaurants then I think we'd have a decent idea but as it is, no one does. I also doubt the government do, they will have just seen spikes in cases and responded without doing the social analysis that goes with it. Pointing fingers won't help. If one part of society is convinced another is to blame then they won't modify their behaviour.
Binners- my theory on that is similar to why wild camping wasn't allowed in Scotland while you could go to a campsite- control. A business has a policy on how to operate safely and a duty of care, a pub is obliged to only seat single household groups, a park is a public space and easy to police, while a back garden is not subject to any controls and doesn't have a Bobby theoretically wandering around like a public open space.
Urgh. Seems if I’d got to the barbers last week they could have done my (really rather tramplike now) beard, but now just my hair.
Looks like I’ll be wearing a mask more than most for the foreseeable...
To be fair Tom, I think your Captain Caveman look quite suits you
A business has a policy on how to operate safely and a duty of care, a pub is obliged to only seat single household groups, a park is a public space and easy to police, while a back garden is not subject to any controls and doesn’t have a Bobby theoretically wandering around like a public open space.
Nah, it’s because no one gets charged, and no one gets paid, for friends and family getting together in their back gardens. The government want to pass the buck to businesses for being economically viable (despite it being their lack of appetite and aptitude to implement the means to drive down the virus to levels for track/trace/isolate to be effective in stopping spread that is killing so many businesses).
Pubs in Hebden yesterday were full of groups of 4, 6, 8 adults… they could well be mass occupancy households… but more likely pubs are turning a blind eye because it’s the only way to break even.
Neighbours had garden parties last night… I strongly suspect an awful lot of people have decided the new rules aren’t for them… whether it’s down to so much “these rules are for the Asians” nonsense that seems to be proliferating… or the more general poor messaging and back slapping for Cummings breaking the rules that this government indulged in, I don’t know.
My mate is coming over, from Halifax to Leeds, to go for a ride tomorrow from my house, can he come in for tea after, or do I send his disease riddled carcass straight home for fear of the feds busting us?
Of course he can. As it stands this is only government guidance rather than actual law. Much like their only exercising once a day was.
Economic factors are likely to play a part but also, to some extent, it's that nothing is actually OK or not OK. It's not binary like that, just points on a spectrum. Anywhere that the lines are drawn, there'll be weird inconsistencies around the edges. The aim is to damp down transmission overall, and that could actually be achieved by all kinds of weird rules that block one thing but not another. The really tricky thing is maintaining compliance I suppose. To do that they need to make the rules as obviously sensible as they can, and communicate them really well (along with the reasoning). Throughout this whole thing I think the communication has been pretty rubbish.
Munrobiker
Knock yourself out, from Public Health England, week 30 report.
From the summary:
There has been an increase in the proportion of cases from the Asian/Asian Britsh ethnic group, This is likely to reflect larger populations from this ethnic group in areas that are currently seeing higher incidence.
Seems to be a lot of people picking holes in this to suit their own personal or political views, and when decision making isn't properly explained or appears inconsistent, I can totally see why after all this time.
Seemed to me from Whittys comments yesterday that the "experts" are digging their heels in around what can be done safely to release lockdown. His suggestion that if we want schools open in September then we might need to clamp down on something else was telling.
What the government is completely failing to do, at a key time in the epidemic, is communicate clearly to carry the population along with them to make it work. Even if that communication might need to be blunt and the message unpopular in the interests of keeping infection rates under control.
MrsMC is breaking some rules today to travel to visit her parents for the first time since Christmas. Frankly, we weren't expecting them to get this far through the pandemic. Both in their 80s, one with stage 4 cancer caring for the other with increasing dementia, whose anxiety as a result of this is through the roof. My brother in laws - both in vulnerable groups - live close by, but trying to get a care/support package in place so far this year has been a nightmare.
Pubs in Hebden yesterday were full of groups of 4, 6, 8 adults… they could well be mass occupancy households… but more likely pubs are turning a blind eye because it’s the only way to break even.
Neighbours had garden parties last night… I strongly suspect an awful lot of people have decided the new rules aren’t for them… whether it’s down to so much “these rules are for the Asians” nonsense that seems to be proliferating… or the more general poor messaging and back slapping for Cummings breaking the rules that this government indulged in, I don’t know.
Very much this. Talking to one of our neighbours last night who was just about to walk down into town to go to a leaving do with another 50 people. They'd phoned the pub up where they'd booked the room and asked if it was being cancelled due to the new rules, and were told that, no, it was fine. And I totally get why the landlord would do that
I walked through town yesterday and all the pub beer gardens were rammed. Were all those people in single-household groups? What do you think?
So that's how seriously it's being taken here
Throughout this whole thing I think the communication has been pretty rubbish.
Rubbish is somewhat understating it. The communications, from day one, have been absolutely woeful. Inexcusably bad. But essentially cancelling Eid with 3 hours notice, putting restrictions on millions of people in a massive geographical area, and doing so via Twitter absolutely blows their usual inept, incompetent efforts out of the water.
That's well and truly into the realms of taking the ****ing piss! It's treating us with complete contempt! And it's fair to say that it's not gone down well, to say the least
Stumpyjon- thanks for that, I'm not a statistician but it does seem fairly conclusive. The number of Asian people infected is going down, just not at the same rate as other ethnic groups. So there does seem to be a problem there. How they've pinpointed it to people visiting homes rather than where people work isn't clear though.
I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn't be done.
I walked through town yesterday and all the pub beer gardens were rammed.
They’ve f***** up massively in allowing the pubs to open, and they know it. And now they’re doing everything they can, including disgracefully shifting the blame onto Muslims, to avoid a u-turn on that decision.
I’ve still not been to a pub since they opened because it doesn’t take genius to work out that’s the best place to catch the virus. Boris Is terrified of closing them, not just because of the expense of propping up all those jobs, but the symbolism of it. That’s why he delayed lockdown in March and ended it too early.
Maybe that’s down to the government’s absolutely woeful communications, but it’s unleashed a lot of animosity and resentment, and a lot of people in these areas aren’t going to cooperate this time.
This is the dangerous part of the whole thing for me. If a large part of the population will not stick to any new lockdowns then we have no hope of controlling the virus on the run-in to the winter flu season. Keeping that compliance of the public was key to the first restriction period, if they have managed to squander that now it will be very, very hard to regain it. You just have to look at the scenes on beaches to see that a lot of the general public have realised that if they disobey the social distancing rules in large numbers there is very little the police can do about it. 10-20 bobbies vs 2-3000 people is poor odds.
What the government is completely failing to do, at a key time in the epidemic, is communicate clearly to carry the population along with them to make it work. Even if that communication might need to be blunt and the message unpopular in the interests of keeping infection rates under control.
They've failed at almost every stage to communicate clearly. The only success they've had was the original 3-part slogan of "Stay home, Protect the NHS, Save Lives" but then the Cummings incident blew that out of the water. Every slogan or advice since then has been pretty poor in that it could be interpreted in multiple ways to suit your circumstances. As for being blunt and giving an unpopular message, this is Good-Time Boris we're talking about. The person who hides at every opportunity, whether that be on holiday or in a fridge. He could address the nation on Monday and announce a fresh lockdown and most people would not take him seriously. If we do have to go back into the same restrictions we had for March/April/May (which I think we are genuinely in danger of doing) then the compliance his time round will be much lower.
latest johnsonian emissions…
To refer to any of this as Johnsonian, Johnsonism or Johsonite is lending an inappropriate level of gravitas to utter guff. Even referring to it as an omnishambolic shxt show would be disrespectful to omnishambolic shxt shows.
It comes back to the pxss take point again - you need to set a hard point for people to oscillate about. Not some nebulous nonsensical daily dance about the point. People aren't making sense of it and need clarity. What three words may work for finding your location but not really ideal for setting the route out of this chaos.
It's feeling like Boris Buckaroo today and we are all just waiting for the inevitable.
I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn’t be done.
Agree with that, but the opposite is also true, a one solution fits all approach that our shambolic government has applied is also extremely dangerous, it's not dealing effectively with the root causes and it's caused a complete lack of credibility with the population in the area as a whole. If Blackburn, Rochdale, Oldham etc. were locked down based on 4 digit postcodes no one would have an issue, ethnicity would not be a factor, it would be based on proper data and would also pick up areas with other ethnic bias that as you have rightly said are probably shrugging shoulders and saying it's not us.
including disgracefully shifting the blame onto Muslims
Grow up Dez, this is not about blame, its about successfully tackling outbreaks and dealing with them. For what it's worth I do agree with you about the pub situation, it just isn't the main driver behind many of the current spikes. It will probably will have a major impact on the next increase though, compounded by the stupidity of blanket banning 4 million people from meeting in each others homes whilst still allowing pubs to open. Not dealing with the current spikes will directly contribute to the next spikes.
One thing we can all agree on is the government have handled this incredibly badly, again. Introducing the lock down on the eve of Eid was calculated, insensitive and ultimately counter productive, I'd have had more sympathy if they had been more truthful for the reasoning. But then they knew Eid was coming so could have at least given people warning the changes were coming to allow people make alternate plans, the spikes have been clear in these areas for weeks and Eid's probably been on the calender for hundreds of years. The reality is they weren't planning and panicked and are now trying to cover up yet another knee jerk reaction.
this is not about blame
You appear to have missed Craig Whittaker’s comments yesterday And Boris’s failure to condemn him.
And meanwhile in Calderdale..
https://twitter.com/jamesdbaker1/status/1289470686931628032?s=21
The reality is they weren’t planning and panicked and are now trying to cover up yet another knee jerk reaction.
Absolutely. It just reinforces the impression that, right from the off, the government has dithered and procrastinated, then at the 59th minute of the 11th hour, been panicked into action.
And every time they've done so, their credibility has been further diminished. This week has been absolutely farcical and the result is that large numbers of people are just going to ignore the governments new rules.
They've only themselves to blame for that through their complete incompetence in every area, and the arrogance and entitlement of the whole Cummings affair, which was the catalyst for everything that's happened since and the rot really set in. From that point on the government had absolutely zero authority. They simply threw it away.
How they’ve pinpointed it to people visiting homes rather than where people work isn’t clear though.
A reminder that we’ve had a school closed here, because it ripped through the staff.
We still need (and should be working on solidly) plans for schools to get all kids in, and for more work places to have people back. That should be the priority. To enable this we need something more than “we’re not at a peak, so send you kids to school 5 days a week next month, and get commuting again”… because that is just an aim, a wish, a punt, a hope, a dream… not a plan. Hmm… what does that remind me of…? And who’s now running the country…?
That plan should probably include paying pubs to stay shut… but that’s just my opinion… some proper contact tracing, and an app, could have told us by now if that was needed… or what measures we could take to help them open safely and profitably (not one or the other).
Chris Witty stated last night that we’re at the limits of opening up and in future, compromises will have to be reached.
They’ve expanded on that today and said that opening up the schools will possibly involve having to shut the pubs
Now, in any sane country, you’d simply say ‘well, shut the pubs then’
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
No. Me neither
Listening to Capital UK..
Caller - "Yeah me and my mate are travelling down to Brighton, we're in the car now. Rave weekend innit.
Going to see some mates and have a big one all weekend"
Radio presenter - "All socially distanced of course I presume?"
Caller - "Yeah of course"
Can't think why infections might be increasing.
I've decided to move into the local supermarket.
It's quite clear from the guidance that the only safe indoor space where you can see other people is when you're within reach of a contactless payment device.
I'll see if I can get one in my house and then everything will be okay.
Does anyone know if I need to connect it to the nearest 5G mast?
dazh you really should check your facts before wading in face first.
For Calderdale this data shows that rates of coronavirus are highest in Park and Warley electoral wards.
And where are these two wards, west of Halifax.
Halifax is home to a large South Asian community mainly of British ****stanis from the Kashmir region, which originally moved to the area for employment in the textile industry. The majority of the community lives in the west central Halifax region of the town.
Where's the bar you posted a reference to, doesn't look like the middle of Halifax. Look the next big spike may well be due to the bars etc. but at the moment they are not the main cause in these areas, be pre-emptive by all means and close them (I don't think pubs should have re-opened and the furlough scheme should have been tailored earlier to take support away from businesses that could get back to work and put suitable measures in place, and fed to industries like hospitality). Deal with the root causes. Idiots like Whittaker don't help but don't let his obvious bias cloud the real issues.
Let me rephrase my earlier comment, this should not be about be about blame.
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
Yep, they've cocked up, again, and now roll out the experts to try and sort out their political mess. The whole annoucing the restrictions on Twitter was all part of the standard leak it before announcing it mentality, this time it wasn't the sort of announcement you could quietly bury if it didn't go down well.
Bet a lot of the local councils had no idea it was coming either, they certainly had no idea of the detail.
The school that shut at the end of term was east Halifax (mostly white area)… I’m dreading it ripping through any school in west Halifax next month… because so many kids live with, or next door and effectively with, so many older and infirm relatives.
but at the moment they are not the main cause in these areas
You don’t know that. Sorry, but you just don’t. I hope you’re right, given what bars and pubs look like this weekend.
(I don’t think pubs should have re-opened and the furlough scheme should have been tailored earlier to take support away from businesses that could get back to work and put suitable measures in place, and fed to industries like hospitality)
Yes, yes, yes.
Bet a lot of the local councils had no idea it was coming either, they certainly had no idea of the detail.
Lisa Nandy was on channel 4 news last night saying that nobody got any warning until a couple of hours before it dropped, when they were summoned to a conference call by little Matty Handjob and informed what was going ahead.
Lots of questions were asked, but he didn’t have any answers, as at that point they still hadn’t actually decided what the new rules were going to be.
That was 2 hours before they announced the lockdown. Have a think about that for a minute...
They were literally scrawling out on the back of a *ing fag packet, right at the death, rules that would massively impact the lives of 4.6 million people.
An absolute *ing shambles!!!
The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since
Relax – johnson says he’ll be working flat out during the summer hols.
But then immediately said he’d be going on holiday.
How can you tell the difference?
I stand by my statement that pointing fingers at one group could cause complacency in another so shouldn’t be done.
Pointing fingers at one group is obviously the wrong approach. But you still need to deal with the issues in that group, not wanting to talk about it openly in case it gets abused by those with another agenda would be counter productive, though this may require an ability to communicate that is clearly beyond this government
Be interested in the numbers behind the statement that the virus "ripped through" the staff at a school - 2-3 schools in Derby were closed after outbreaks but I didn't see any mention in any official announcements or social media gossip to suggest that the virus was "ripping through" at any of the locations. Statements like that need to be supported to avoid what might be small and well contained incidents prompting unnecessary alarm and over reaction.
Daughters gymnastics squad have had their first face to face training session today. A few nervous and tearful looking parents, the kids seemed to enjoy it mind, even though display gymnastics (think cheerleading pyramids, throws and tumbles) is a bit tricky when everyone is 2 metres apart. But great to see them back together with friends and picking up where the left off. They should have just got back from Eurogym in Iceland if the year had gone to plan.
An absolute ****ing shambles!!!
The shear incompetence is breathtaking! It’s criminally negligent! As it has been from day one, with Boris not bothering his fat, lazy arse enough to even turn up to COBRA meetings. That pretty much set the tone for everything that’s happened since
^^ This,and every day I think "Who's going to change things?"
Sir Keir Rodney Starmer?
Well he is chipping away at things ,and at PMQ does make Bojo look like the bluffer that he always was, but if you look into the distance for people coming through the ranks (in any party),that have competence, integrity and good qualities, who do you see that gives any hope for the future?
Now, in any sane country, you’d simply say ‘well, shut the pubs then’
Does anybody believe that that would be our governments initial thought process?
This is the crux of it. Even with the furlough scheme in place, and even if it was extended, the large pub chains are losing tons of money. That brexit 'spoons idiot probably has a hotline to 10 Downing St. Just think, we're very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises 'the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub' over and above our kid's right to an education.
we’re very possibly in the next few weeks going to get to the point in this country where the government of the day prioritises ‘the inalienable right of every Englishman to go down the pub’ over and above our kid’s right to an education.
Will be a key decision moment, the potential failure of the pub industry or the potential loss of those kids education and mental well being
I think I know where I’d be putting my money on that particular call.
One generates money, one costs money
Hmmmmmm.... which will it be?
The private schools will still be able to open ok though, right?
If they don't open the schools then they will have to pay a fortune in extending furlough or more universal credit for those who can't work due to looking after kids.
I would be amazed if they didn't prioritise schools
Is it as black and white as that though, schools vs pubs?
Infection rates across a lot of boroughs are dropping but have pubs. My family lives in Norfolk and they've had no cases for a while now. Its certain clusters where rates are increasing. (I'm not saying its an Asian thing, there will be multiple groups involved).
Although pubs are going to be a driver when you get adults getting smashed up and slobbering each other. Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.
I would be amazed if they didn’t prioritise schools
I don’t know if you’ve seen who the education secretary is or if you’re familiar with the earlier work of Gavin ‘Frank Spencer’ Williamson
Hmmmmmm…. which will it be?
Trickier than that. Without schools you need alternate childcare or people wont be going back to workplace. Hence why they were keen on getting them reopened.
@binners yeah I see your point there.
I don't think they will let that mouth breather anywhere near the decision though. He will be told what to say
I find it terrifying that an imbecile like him is in charge of our education system.
Rebecca Long Bailey didn’t do much as shadow education secretary but she did look at him with total incredulity, when he made his statement about the schools not reopening until September, and asked him ‘what have you actually been doing for the last few months?
A very valid question
Can't be too many of the cabinet people don't think that of though
I was thinking exactly that as I posted it. It’s absolutely certain that this country has never seen a cabinet stuffed with such complete non-entities. Political pygmies
Boris is so painfully needy and insecure, he does suffer from ‘tall poppies’ theory, we know, but even so...
Gavin Williamson?
Liz Truss?
Priti Patel?
Grant Schapps?
And, somewhat unbelievably, they’re not even the worst of them
It’s a good job we don’t find ourselves in a situation that requires strong, decisive, intelligent leadership. Otherwise we’d be ****ed!
Oh....
Both pubs and schools will be open and we'll wear the consequences. It won't be pretty but it won't be disastrous either.
(hmmm....I should back that up with calculations...it's mostly an informed guess for now)
Maybe we could combine schools and pubs in some way?
Actually... I’m prepared to put my house on one of the cabinet having already asked that question
Probably Gavin Williamson
Perhaps put a limit on intoxication and require breathalysing prior entry to a pub.
Funnily enough, that's been the law for a very long time already, and if it had been enforced more seriously then a lot of Police and NHS costs could have been avoided
(hmmm….I should back that up with calculations…it’s mostly an informed guess for now)
Estimates put school transmission at about 50% of the total. We know what happens when we have 100%... you don’t really need sums. There’s a lot more information for informed guesses now. For me, it’s all about where to put the control measures for most impact.
Swab teachers twice a week? Shut down year groups completely when positives found? What about dual school siblings?