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I'd love to know how much posties could be distributing COVID-19 through the communities. From often working within 2m of each other while indoors despite staggered shifts, to touching all those gates and letterboxes plus all that mail. While some posties are put on different duties every day, visiting potentially ~600+ different homes each day.
During the lockdown it can really only be significantly spreading through supermarkets,
If lock down is being adhered to around here I know a few people who routinely broke the rules and are doing so even more now.
I’d love to know how much posties could be distributing COVID-19 through the communities. From often working within 2m of each other while indoors despite staggered shifts, to touching all those gates and letterboxes plus all that mail. While some posties are put on different duties every day, visiting potentially ~600+ different homes each day.
Me too.
I've read that due to the texture of paper the virus gets lost and isn't transferred. I'm not convinced but even if that's true what about glossy mail and touching letter boxes etc?
Same with well meaning mail shots. The intentions are good but we got a glossy leaflet delivered to every home in the parish offering assistance to the vulnerable. A neighbour delivered with the help of of her family of 4. None of my elderly neighbours to dropped dead but that was due to luck IMHO!
Of the 25 new clusters in France identified since deconfinement only 2 are are hospitals:
The only real essential trips for non-key workers are supermarkets & they have got much better- its the only time im inside any building other than my house
and the supermarkets have much got much, much better at social distancing
compared to the first few chaotic weeks, when lockdown was being rumoured & denied supermarkets caught unawares and people panic buying meant you were forced to visit 3 crazy busy stores in a day just to buy loo roll
its a very different experience using supermarkets compared to how it was 10-6 weeks ago
That’s from the Spectator I assume and I dispute it. I’ve folowed the identified sources of clusters from the outset and many have been identified: religious meetings, ski resorts and in particular parties and discos, aeroplances, buses and trains, schools. The main source of spreading has been people travelling and mixing.
I meant 'the main source of spreading since lockdown'. We are not going skiing or going to football matches or any of the normal transmission things and yet our cases are not going down that much. It seems improbable that a similar rate of infection that happened during normal busy life is being sustained by passing a handful of people for a few seconds in a supermarket. Hence my question about the overall numbers being propped up by super-transmission sites such as care homes and hospitals. That article, whilst being in a Tory rag, seems to support the idea.
EDIT the French article suggests the clusters are in other close-quarter environments with lots of people, rather than in the general population.
The most stupid letter I've had recently was the one telling me where to pick our free masks - they could have put the masks in the envelope rather than the letter ! The neighbouring commune did exactly that.
All anecdotal I know, Molgrips, but if you look through the new clusters in France it's anywhere people are in close contact in a confined space for long periods. Abatoirs, worker accomodation, schools, social housing, young workers accomodation, immigrant accomodation, religious community, municipal workers, a funeral, homeless accomodation.. and a couple of hospitals.
I think the hospitals have really got their act together. Our local one filled it's beds with victims from other more badly affected areas and hasn't been the source of a cluster.
Edukator, you seem to be talking about France. Most of us are in the UK and I for one assumed that was the context of the discussion.
In the UK, it seems clear that hospitals and care homes are a major focus. For one thing, the ONS data pointed to healthcare staff being 6x more likely to be infected than other occupations.
I'm talking about any country that can be learned from. France has learned from China, Spain, Italy and Germany. Blaming hospitals is simplistic and distracting from the main source of spreading and infection at this point in the pandemic - gatherings of peole in confined spaces for periods of time wherever that may be: a workplace, a school meeting room (Madame's school learned and meetings are held in the gym when video is impractical, windows are all wide open), collective accomodation, a church... .
I'm typing what I learn so the STW members who live in the UK can choose to learn from experience elsewhere or adopt the attitude that spreading is down to hopitals because that's what's in the British press. And let's face it, the Spectator has had an agenda from the outset in the crisis which has little to do with objective reporting of observed facts.
Anyone know if our brave, courageous, glorious Churchillian leader is still alive?
It’s been a week since anyone’s seen him.
#wheresboris?
There’s a rumour going around that he’s pretty much lost it to stress, and they are covering it up.
I’d love to know how much posties could be distributing COVID-19 through the communities. From often working within 2m of each other while indoors despite staggered shifts, to touching all those gates and letterboxes plus all that mail. While some posties are put on different duties every day, visiting potentially ~600+ different homes each day.
ive hooked our front gate open, all post stays in the porch for 24hrs minimum and is wiped down as it enters the house. You never know...
Hopital staff fall into two categories now. Those recieving and treating Covid patients and yes they are at high risk themselves but also very good at isolating themselves from society at large.
The second category are those dealing with routine business who are no more at risk of either catching or spreading the virus than other workers doing similar things in other sectors, they're just another group of workers in close proximity with their colleagues and clients.
Crikey is at risk, TJ much less so. Hope they both get through all this OK.
STW members who live in the UK can choose to learn from experience elsewhere
But Ed, this is the UK, we’re special.
Thanks for answering outofbreath’s questions TiRed. Many questions I’ve been thinking about too.
I feel a bit rubbish that I really don’t want to catch it - not because I’m worried about dying (fit, 40s and female) but my lungs are my weakest point racing and I don’t want scarring on them.
Thanks also Mariner for the David Starkey video. I should go back to philosophy. I’d not remembered that libertarians are just one logical fallacy, non-sequitur and poor thought process after another. I’m surprised to be honest, I thought he’d make more sense and be more compelling. What tripe.
I doubt anyone is getting sick in a supermarket or on their walks because they came within 0.75m of someone instead of 200cm. You need a decent number of viral particles to get past your mucus membranes. That means a meeting of time/distance/virulence multiplied by the fact the other person has to have it.
Scotland has 6 million folk in it, with 14,655 confirmed cases (All-time). Even if the real number is 10x that, then only 2% of the population has/had it, so 1 in 50 of the folk I walk past for mere seconds in the street or supermarket? Extremely unlikely to transmit.
It's happening in workplaces - factories, vans, supermarkets - for workers, not shoppers etc when you spend lots of time with people, or lots of time with people who, by the very nature of the fact they're in hospital with this virus!
One source for the care homes is agency carers. Newsnight may well be covering this later with excellent Lewis Goodall.
you seem to be talking about France. Most of us are in the UK and I for one assumed that was the context of the discussion.
I think it's the same everywhere. No country I've seen has seen infections drop off a cliff after three weeks of lockdown so in every country you can say infections are still happening in a tiny subset of the usual candidates so the riskiest location/activity from the subset ought to be easy to identify. On reflection I'm pretty sure someone will have thought of that, and we probably have an answer - maybe the answer is so obvious that it's not newsworthy or worthy of investigaton.
I meant ‘the main source of spreading since lockdown’. We are not going skiing or going to football matches or any of the normal transmission things and yet our cases are not going down that much. It seems improbable that a similar rate of infection that happened during normal busy life is being sustained by passing a handful of people for a few seconds in a supermarket. Hence my question about the overall numbers being propped up by super-transmission sites such as care homes and hospitals.
+1, seemed like a pretty plausible thought to me and explains so much of what we're seeing.
The only real essential trips for non-key workers are supermarkets & they have got much better- its the only time im inside any building other than my house
+1 The only time I've been inside with people outside of my family since lockdown is supermarkets and they still don't feel like a massive source of infection to me. Maybe that's wrong which is all the more reason why it would be good to know.
The only time I’ve been inside with people outside of my family since lockdown is supermarkets
Wow. When you put it like that it just seems even more other-worldly.
Our lockdown was anything but. Loads of small non-essential business kept working, many only shut when work ran out, plenty of people mixing there. Couple that with parts of society who have ignored the social distancing, multi generations mixing. Many people's lives really aren't flexible enough to adhere to lock down requirements, and despite some high profile cases the police haven't been keeping people at home like they have in other countries.
That's why it's still out there at the level it is.
Supermarkets have responded well, the public shopping in them not so much, everyone queues up outside but inside its often a free for all.
#wheresboris?
He is due a tutorial tomorrow if he turns up.
On the contact with people with it and transmission risk my partner who've I've not seen in 8 weeks or so now has a lodger who had it undiagnosed for 2 weeks and hasn't passed it to any of the other 3 people in the house. The lodger is a care worker and had been self isolating as she had what she, the gp and 111 all believed was a chest infection. After 2 weeks she was finally able to get a test which was positive. The other 3 members of the household were then tested and all are negative. It's not a particularly large house, they share a kitchen and there is just the one bathroom and toilet. No one in the house thought she had it so took no extra precautions within the house. Their paths didn't often cross, the lodger tends to keep to their room most of the time.
It's only one anecdotal case but it could suggest that maybe you really do need to spend a reasonable time in close proximity in one go with someone for transmission of enough viral load. It could be that the other 3 have had some previous exposure to something that had given them a small but adequate degree of protection. It's going to be a long time until we know with any degree of certainty but hopefully it will turn out that we can take steps that drastically cut the risk of transmission while still living a life of only going indoors if it's your house or the supermarket which has also been my experience of the last however long it's been now.
n0b0dy0ftheg0at
Member
I’d love to know how much posties could be distributing COVID-19 through the communities.
All mail/parcels that come here are treated as potentially contaminated. Since before lock down I've been spraying them etc. Even then I open them, lay important letters on the floor, take pics on my phone (for reference), then they are "balled up" in water so when they dry they aren't useful in a fraudulent way. Don't want to use shredder as anything on the paper could float around on the dust generated. Yeah, did I mention in very cautious?
I do all the above whilst being extremely cautious of cross infection using the phone etc and all the other processes involved.
Probably way over the top but I see any "goods" entering the house as one of only a few entry points for the virus.
I'm still the main risk for bringing it in of course but I'm beyond cautious when out and limit going out.
There’s a rumour going around that he’s pretty much lost it to stress, and they are covering it up.
Its quite conceivable that hes still recovering and not at full health
I reckon he has a debating coach & a team of flunkies pumping with every stat they can so that the beknighted field-owning ex-QC doesnt skewer him tomorrow at PMQs
I see theyve already started throwing the scientists under the bus
https://www.ft.com/content/a7c693fd-8932-48cb-8df4-83ba63013367
binners - rumour has it that our glorious Churchill mk2 leader will be at PMQs on wednesday; don't know why because he's not a prime minister - other than by title.
He's been working out how to install a sycophant in the form of bernard jenkin as chairman of the Liaison Committee which is the only parliamentary committee with the 'authority' to summon the PM to answer questions.
Democracy?
His place-men who appear at the daily briefing are truly dismal; useless Eustice clearly showed his limits on Tuesday.
Predictably, we now have 'ministerial' pushback against the scientists; yes, thèrése coffey, I'm referring to you - what a useless bag of cells.
Have we done this review of death rates among different ethnicities:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/bame-covid-19-deaths-what-do-we-know-rapid-data-evidence-review/
The latest ONS data shows that the number of excess deaths remain very elevated in care homes, as shown below with the green bars.
The number of non care home excess deaths is still elevated, but has dropped significantly in the week ending 8th May.
That’s a one week lag time.
HEre's a question.
Lets assume you're an average white guy. Not overweight, no health issues.
What's the chances of dying from this if you get it based upon data we have for 'average white guy'?
1:1000 ? 1:10,000 ?
If i'm reading right, British White is 30:100,000 but not known on age/health, so guessing less than that.
It's very age dependent too.
OK, so lets go with 30-50 average white guy as that covers a fair few on here i'd guess.
As just over 50 and a little overweight, this has made me think about my wider health a bit more. Also seems to have got my 17 year old eldest thinking about it as well, which is interesting.
weeksy you might want to start identifying as a woman for best protection, that's quite a significant factor as well.
What’s the chances of dying from this if you get it based upon data we have for ‘average white guy’?
Making a wild stab at trying to figure that out....
That first link shows about 30 deaths per 100,000 for white British.
This link gives the breakdown by age, but unfortunately, doesn't also break it down by ethnicity. So it's a bit of a wild guess.
Anyway, that gives 21k total male deaths and 16k total female deaths (at the time that was produced).
If you're male, below the age of 45, then it looks like the death rate is less than 1 per 100,000.
If you're male, 45 to 65, it seems to be around 2 per 100,000.
But that's ignoring co-morbidities, to figure that one out, you would need some more data.
And this data all makes me feel a bit anxious, since there's a good chance I'm mixing up different things.
But anyway, if you're White British under the age of 45, not diabetic, you would be incredibly unlucky to die from this.
If you’re male, below the age of 45, then it looks like the death rate is less than 1 per 100,000.
If you’re male, 45 to 65, it seems to be around 2 per 100,000.
But that’s ignoring co-morbidities, to figure that one out, you would need some more data.
But anyway, if you’re under the age of 45, you would be incredibly unlucky to die from this
That's kinda where i was going with it really i guess. Sure there's a chance... but hey, i ride MTBs and motorbikes too, i'd argue there's a chance with both of them also of me not coming back home one day, throw in commuting on the M4, then i wonder if the chances of me actually dying from Corona even if i contracted it are actually lower than me dying from just about anything else.
Looking at those numbers for ethnicity, I still don't understand why the government isn't advising people to take vitamin D.
Those death rates could almost be directly correlated with the darkness of your skin.
I don't think enough is known to make a 'chances forecast' like that? And, there's always people who have underlying issues that they don't know about too.
chances of me actually dying from Corona even if i contracted it are actually lower than me dying from just about anything else.
Which is pretty much the whole point of the distancing, not to protect you, but to stop you becoming a vector to those that are more vulnerable.
HEre’s a question.
Lets assume you’re an average white guy. Not overweight, no health issues.
What’s the chances of dying from this if you get it based upon data we have for ‘average white guy’?
1:1000 ? 1:10,000 ?
If i’m reading right, British White is 30:100,000 but not known on age/health, so guessing less than that.
I heard a good way to put it into context. Your chances of dying once you have CV are the same as your chances of dying in the coming year pretty much across the age range.
So how worried are you about dying during this year? That's how worried you should be if you catch Corona Virus.
I can't remember the source for this.
Looking at those numbers for ethnicity, I still don’t understand why the government isn’t advising people to take vitamin D.
What's the death rate in Scotland compared to England? From other threads we've had on here in the past on Vit D it would appear that deficiency is higher the further north you go. At the moment they are two things that are coincidental, there isn't the evidence of causation at this point. Also advising people to take something without first checking there is enough for everyone isn't a great plan.
Contact tracing, both 'manual' and 'app' going swimmingly then....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818
That's all true but it's based on actual rates and therefore predicated on the measures we are taking or have taken against it and the ability of the health services to cope with it. Reduce / remove measures and the chance increases.
You can also argue that the chances of dying on the UK roads are low (1:20,000) in a year so why do we bother with speed limits or traffic laws?
That first link shows about 30 deaths per 100,000 for white British.
Is that 100 000 confirmed cases or per head of population? One is known the other a best guess.
Weeksey still not getting that covid 19 is a population level problem!!
Another 545 deaths today – the UK numbers seem to be hardly declining at all, and are falling a lot slower than e.g. Italy or Spain!
International comparisons aren’t to be encouraged anymore DrJ. Not sure why…
Sister in law has only just been recruited as a phone contact tracer. She is now on a facebook group for people in the job from a specific background and the general vibe is that it is pretty chaotic regarding training, passwords, etc. Serco playing a blinder again.
You can also argue that the chances of dying on the UK roads are low (1:20,000) in a year so why do we bother with speed limits or traffic laws?
In the uk 1 in 200 us die on the roads. Road safety is *very* important.
Weeksey still not getting that covid 19 is a population level problem!!
Don't be making assumptions for me, i compltely get it, hence why i asked a VERY specific question about mortality rates within a certain demographic. I didn't get into any other aspects of cross comtamination/infection because that wasn't related to my actual question.
Don't read into things stuff that simply doesn't exist.
Looking at those numbers for ethnicity, I still don’t understand why the government isn’t advising people to take vitamin D.
Because it's effects are marginal at the very best. It's unlikely to do anyone any harm though. Crack on.
There's an awful lot more going on with the bame numbers than just darker skin.
International comparisons aren’t to be encouraged anymore DrJ. Not sure why…
Running a filter (a 7 day weighted average) on daily fatalities:
UK - 303
Italy - 150
Spain - 92
Normalising that by million population head:
UK - 4.59 (per day per million)
Italy - 2.28
Spain - 1.39
We are lagging by nearly three weeks on that metric. New case numbers tell a similar story. I can't help thinking we are talking about opening up just a tickle bit too early.
I don't know how many people are need in our track and trace army, per single new case per day. Does anyone here know what the required ratio is?
I think to make a useful dent you're looking at 10-50 people tested per case, so however many people on the ground for the interviewing, chasing up, administering tests etc.
I think I read somewhere that China had 1800 teams of 5 on it in Wuhan? If the UK were to actually get the 18k people and organise them properly, then it could be a useful contribution - but as I said before, not enough to squash the disease by itself AIUI. And the current shambles is nothing.
There’s an awful lot more going on with the bame numbers than just darker skin.
As the report quoted further up there indicated.
NHS Scotland has recruited 2,000 for T&T. That'll be on top of however many current employees have been identified.
There's been a number of posts recently saying lockdown hasn't worked and infections aren't going down. If you look at worldometers then I can see why you'd get that impression as they plot the daily announcement of infections as though they're the date of those infections.
The government's Covid19 data page linked below plots infections by date of sample and the reduction is a virtually linear decline, the lockdown is definitely working
I don't think anyone is saying lockdown hasn't worked.
I think a lot of us feel that the numbers are not as low as we'd like to be ahead of any more relaxation of lockdown.
Science and Technology Committee Tuesday 19 May 2020
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/4f9e09bf-4119-4168-9f6b-7f8d0a4c899e
I've only a little way in but some really interesting detail so far.
It’s very age dependent too.
But is it causation or correlation? Yes autoimmunity reduces with age but older people on average are not in such good health as younger people. What if you compare healthy young middle aged and elderly?
The government’s Covid19 data page linked below plots infections by date of sample and the reduction is a virtually linear decline, the lockdown is definitely working
Do you trust government websites at this stage?
Where do Worldometer get their numbers from?
EDIT Worldometer are publishing figures from the govt twitter feed which gives 2412 cases for yesterday. The numbers on coronavirus.data.gov.uk are FAR lower, and yet still from the government. What gives? I mean I know the govt graph is subject to updates for the last few days as results come back, but even then that graph hasnt' seen 2,400 cases since 24th April, a day that Worldometer shows as over 5,000.
What gives?
User error?
I've just checked the two sites. The data is EXACTLEY THE SAME
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk
If Worldometers arnt using the Government data, where else are they getting it from?
Oh, the graph on the data.gov.uk is England only. FFS
There’s been a number of posts recently saying lockdown hasn’t worked and infections aren’t going down.
Infections and deaths are definitely down, nobody is saying otherwise?
As mentioned, I question whether the numbers are low enough to start talking track / trace / test with any degree of success.
If we open up without sufficient capacity to do the detective work on the new cases, it is tantamount to saying sod it, whoever dies, dies (or to paraphrase the delightful Mr Cummings, "some old people die, so what")
Or, we wait a bit until track trace and test is viable.
Which numbers though? This is my point, if people are basing their opinion on how the virus is progressing by the daily infections announcement in isolation, it's a totally different picture to the graph where those infections are plotted by sample date.
I agree that neither shows we should be lifting restrictions but I feel it's important to point out how the different ways of visualising the data can skew perception of where we are in the crisis
Science and Technology Committee Tuesday 19 May 2020
do they cite source?
(non- peer reviewed) data ive seen elsewhere says theres not much differnce
As mentioned, I question whether the numbers are low enough to start talking track / trace / test with any degree of success
At what level of daily cases would be the right time to start relaxing things?
(Let’s say a 7 day rolling average number)
Depends entirely on what looks manageable given size of track and trace, and how the new cases start increasing when we start loosening restrictions.
I admit, I actually don't know the answer.
In PMQs today Bojo stated the new TTI system was designed for 10kcases/day whereas we only have 2500/day now.
Errrrm, 2500 lab confirmed maybe. What about Asymptotic/self isolating cases not tested??
My question wasn’t really aimed at getting a number, as in reality nobody really knows what that number is.
It’s more a case that we have to start somewhere, so why not now?
It might turn out that the numbers are too big and it’s not effective yet, so it’s a case of waiting for the numbers to fall.
Or it could be the numbers area already low enough and it’s effective to drive down the numbers.
The thing is if we do nothing, then we’ll never know.
What about Asymptotic/self isolating cases not tested?
Isn’t this the point of track and trace?
Once someone is confirmed as having the virus, they get in contact with everyone they could have infected, so that they get tested?
That then picks up those cases where people are asymptotic or those who are self isolating and may not have it?
Currently only 4% of the daily results are positive.
We’re wasting a lot of that capacity.
A more targeted approach would be a lot more effective in reducing all cases.
This is the problem. We need to be randomly community testing too to pick up those we don’t know about now.
This is the big problem with the U.K. situation. We have such a high level of community spread we aren’t able to stamp down on it.
Oh, and for the first time since early March, really busy round my way today. Lockdown really is over, regardless of what Boris says.
Looking at the local echo website I can't help but think WTF.
Dorset has done pretty well with the number of cases, until shed loads of visitors came down and sat on the beach.
Unf***ingbelievable. The next two weeks will be very interesting.
But arguably they appear to be social distancing?
You should see my home today, it’s total carnage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-52742519
Local village Facebook groups are losing their minds! Police reporting they are running out of tickets to leave on abandoned vehicles.
local facebook groups are a hotbed of idiocy & nimbyism tho!
anyway, went to station today to ask about commuting in to london from MK
Was told 1 person every 2 rows of seats, means that the usual 1000+ capacity trains tehy will only be taking 90 passengers
(Tho PA announcement was still saying only travel for essential reasons)
spoke to my boss and hes pretty cool, theres work I can do at home & remotely but its going to be a huge challenge to keep this going through the summer as Im lab based and usually look after quite a few students & clinicians, many of whom have time limits on their funding & research has a limited window for them
Yeah that’s very true about FB!
It is carnage out there and the news is accurate as I had to negotiate the traffic on my way to and from work!
Serco playing a blinder again.
Be honest, do you really think the fault lies with Serco here? Given a plan, clear instruction, and a timeline, I'd be surprised if they could not deliver. Which of those three is likely to be out of Serco's control?
My friend who lives just outside of Truro has reported the same traffic issues. She's a nurse and has had to walk to a friend's house to get a lift to work as her street is chock full of tourist's cars parked up to walk down to the local harbour. Two cars blocking her drive and her fiancee's car is blocked in further down the street too. He says it's busier than a bank holiday where they are!
Absolute madness.
Massively busy on the TPT near me this afternoon. Like a bank holiday. Dreadful.
Two cars blocking her drive and her fiancee’s car is blocked in further down the street too.
I really don't understand what kind of asshole does that.
My friend who lives just outside of Truro has reported the same traffic issues. She’s a nurse and has had to walk to a friend’s house to get a lift to work as her street is chock full of tourist’s cars parked up to walk down to the local harbour.
That's just weird, I wouldn't have Truro down as a top visitor hotspot.
It should be legal to remove double parked cars though. Part by part. With a crowbar and hammer.
Anyone who has posted on this thread Know anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 ?
There's another thread for that mate.
Maybe there is but that doesn't answer the question
That’s just weird, I wouldn’t have Truro down as a top visitor hotspot.
They're near Bissoe Valley Nature Reserve hence all the cars. They describe it as just outside Truro but it's a few miles away looking at a map?