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do people not understand that basically stopping the economy will have a drastic effect?
Yup.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives.
I don't think the nations of the world can act much differently to how they are over CV but people need to get away from the idea the the economy is somehow an abstract optional thing. The economy is what delivers essentials to all of us.
Loving Molegrips's Dinosaur comment: Economy to us == Habitat to dinosaurs.
Economy to us == Habitat to dinosaurs
Could equally be Environment. Interesting analogy all the same.
I’m not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn’t it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?
Except the author isn't measuring, he's speculating based on models that suit his argument.
Could equally be Environment. Interesting analogy all the same.
Yup Environment would have been better choice of word for lots or reasons.
We wreck the environment to the point where we can't grow make the stuff we need and we're ****ed. You could dismiss that as 'damage to the economy', and it certainly would be. It says something about how insane rich we are that we consider the economy as a way of getting needless crap to ourselves and forget that it provides the basics too.
Except the author isn’t measuring, he’s speculating based on models that suit his argument.
That's not the issue you commented on. You specifically said[1] that considering excess deaths is lazy thinking and that's what you were being picked up on.
[1]
…the bit of the BBC article that I have a particular grievance with is the ‘well, they would have died anyway’ bit. Christ alive, such lazy thinking.
I’m not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn’t it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?
No one has a problem when we talk about seasonal flu deaths, which iirc are excess deaths?
Way too much emotion and sensitivity on the issue at the moment. Once the pandemic and hysteria is over, reviews and future planning will have to be based on cold hard analysis, and that will be excess deaths, including deaths due to lack of capacity for otherwise curable illnesses and injuries.
And I'm saying that in the full knowledge that I, or my loved ones, could be among the statistics, but that doesn't change how the analysis needs to be done.
Glad to hear you are on the mend Frank. Here’s hoping your return home this time will be for the foreseeable.
If you wouldn’t mind saying, and totally understand if you don’t want to, But would you mind saying what blood group you are, see if there is anything in those blood group articles
( and yes I know a statistical pool number of 1 is poor stats)
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China 🙁
TiRed
SubscriberGlad you are doing better frank. And I’m writing this from my bed having just had the same shortness of breath as Tuesday. Bizarre. No cough, no temperature, no real pain. Just dyspnoea and muscle weakness. Breathing hard to get the sats up.
Take care. I know others who have been previously fit and young who have been the same. #notInfluenza. And in some, it is not like any other disease I am aware of, and not pneumonia.
Quick test results if you feel light headed. Squeeze a nail and see how long it takes to come back to red. Less than 2 seconds is good.
That's an interesting check and one I can relate to, when my wife was dying of aspiration pneumonia last September I noticed how white her nails were when her sats dropped below 70%.
Just checked mine and they return to red in 1/2 second.
Good to hear you are bouncing back Frank
Hysteria?
3,605 UK deaths according to that worldometer site.
According to TiRED doesn't than mean the lockdown isn't working?
No that’s a misinterpretation of what he said
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC) China are one of the least affected countries in the world and the UK overtook China ages ago, just like everywhere else:
https://tinyurl.com/CVDeathsPerMillion
Take a look at China's Flu deaths as well. They are minisclue.
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC)
That would be true if China were not a huge heterogeneous country where what happens in one part may not have any effect on what happens in another part. Which is just to say that whether a country has more or fewer deaths than China is not very illuminating.
Or believable.
That would be true if China were not a huge heterogeneous country where what happens in one part may not have any effect on what happens in another part. Which is just to say that whether a country has more or fewer deaths than China is not very illuminating.
Agree. China is an Empire really and comparisons with other countries make little sense, everywhere is reasonably unique. BUT *if* we are going to compare, let's do it on some kind of equivalent terms. Otherwise Andorra looks like a superb place to visit to avoid CV...
Or believable.
Cynic! 😀
But would you mind saying what blood group you are, see if there is anything in those blood group articles
( and yes I know a statistical pool number of 1 is poor stats)
Also, please send a faecal sample ASAP to Singletrack Towers for analysis.
Way too much emotion and sensitivity on the issue at the moment
Without lockdown, it seems reasonable to assume that 1000 plus people would be dying of COVID-19 induced respiratory failure per day in the UK, and that would go on for months. How should that be treated? We are already seeing 500-600 per day with seemingly only a fraction of the population infected.
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China
I would expect reported deaths in China is different from actual.
According to TiRED doesn’t than mean the lockdown isn’t working?
These are mostly people infected before lockdown.
In other news, aside from my own porch based 24hr Parcel quarantine it seems the Hermes couriers are told to give instructions to wash your hands after handling the parcel - shouted from a distance of course. Congrats to them for that practical and thoughtful measure.
Just had the front door (to workplace) flung open, Amazon parcel lobbed inside & delivery guy legged it like a special forces soldier clearing a room 😂 Didn't even see what courier it was. Good thing it wasn't fragile 😃it seems the Hermes couriers are told to give instructions to wash your hands after handling the parcel – shouted from a distance of course.
According to TiRED doesn’t than mean the lockdown isn’t working?
Not quite, it means that the evidence is not statiitically signicant. If it hits my mean (rather than lower limit), then that would suggest no change.
Less than 3700 wiuld have been GOOD news. The number is NOT bad news, just little to report, as you were, if you like. Keep on.
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC)
I model total deaths, but have population in there as well. It's not obvious what the population scale _should_ be. Obviously if an epidemic is located in Wuhan and does not really spread, the denominator might be 10mn. My analysis adjusts for this properly. It is a nuisance parameter in the model, so one like to "log them away" 🙂
I had your 3700 in mind, wasn't sure which day it was. Still tragic for families affected, but could have been a lot worse.
Any figure for next week to keep an eye on?
Hancock has moved to this being an international response, not just a national one. An acknowledgement that this is about to look very bad I feel.
Good clear message about staying at home this weekend, whatever the weather.
Good that the nurses who have paid the ultimate price were spoken about in such strong terms as well. We owe them.
STAY AT HOME
PROTECT THE NHS
SAVE LIVES
“Stay at home, for them.”
36 & 39 years old.
TiRed - sounds like your trial made the No10 Press Conference!!
Good clear message about staying at home this weekend, whatever the weather.
The BBC news has just said that Matt Hancock has said driving for five minutes to get to place to exercise for your once a day is OK. That would suggest a mile or so would it not.
Before you ask, I won’t be doing this but then I am extremely fortunate that I can walk from my door and be on a footpath in about 100m
What's the endgame here TiRed? We're only slowing the infection rare with the lockdown measures right?
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
Lets hope so.
What’s the endgame here TiRed? We’re only slowing the infection rare with the lockdown measures right?
I don't do those predictions 😉 In truth, I suspect a staggered start-up from September when schools return. Staggered for society, with controls on wider movement would be my recommendation. That is Neil Fergusson's job, becuase by then their model will be better calibrated. My modelling is really for when you don't know much. Theirs is to predict when you do.
In between is life!
I think the key metric here to measure the success of the lockdown is number of confirmed cases assuming we don't change the scope of testing. We're some way off the lockdown impacting the number of deaths. If the lockdown is having meaningful impact I'd expect to see the number of cases per day reducing in the next couple of days. Unfortunately it held steady at a high for 4 days, then increased again for the next 3. Due to lags in data collection over weekends it will be Tuesday or Wednesday next week before there's any chance of that stat improving.
There are other metrics. For example the number of people phoning le 15 is now dropping in eastern France and beds are being freed off as fast as they're being filled. It depends on whether the people who know these things are allowed to communicate them.
@franksinatra great news. Keep on improving fella.
Sounds like you already know to not rush your recovery.
I have a mantra "when you think you are ready to come back, give it another week".
What’s the endgame here
Stack the chips on the square marked 'vaccine' and pray? Buy time with on/off lockdowns? Hope the end result is 'herd immunity'?
Or this - testing and contact tracing at a local level to control spread:
Truth be told I wonder if the horse has bolted for the test n trace method? Clearly we didn't have the will nor the resources a few weeks ago.
The BBC news has just said that Matt Hancock has said driving for five minutes to get to place to exercise for your once a day is OK.
And yet today he has also said people should not go out in the nice weather this weekend.
And yet today he has also said people should not go out in the nice weather this weekend
I take that to mean the beach, park, visiting relatives and friends ect ect. Not your daily excercise, work or shops if needed.
whats the reason for the low recovery data for the UK ? is just slack case recording or something else
Insufficient testing, if your not testing mild cases it will look worse.
Not even convinced we’ve any sort of grip on how many mild cases there are.
rate of change in new cases in Sweden is scary!
Was wondering what the predicted infection rate for the uk is at the moment.
assuming that the real rate is somewhere around 10x actual cases then we are in excess of 300000 cases which seems low.
Not even convinced we’ve any sort of grip on how many mild cases there are.
That's not testing for you. If you want to be helpful, Kings College, London has a COVID-19 symptom tracker app which you fill in daily to report symptoms and help research:
https://twinsuk.ac.uk/our-research/covid-19/
China's data is so different to anyone elses even South korea and Japan.
That’s not testing for you.
Quite
So, Sweden, Herd Immunity Test patient zero. I’d say it’s scary but it’s all quite scary.
There’s a piece in the BMJ website today out CV testing for inbound travellers to China I think it was 4 in 5 positives showing no symptoms, at least at the point of testing. Small sample of around 160/170 individuals.
I’ve lost the link but can probably find it in my history tomorrow if anyone want it.