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Quite a jump in the Scots number of deaths in the last 24 hours, up from 76 to 126... includes 40 which were held back for family liaison issues, as people die alone and in hospitals, I'm sure there's a bit of a delay for genuine reasons...
Just saw the BBC news weather forecast. Sunny and 20 degrees on Sunday. The cops are going to be busy I think.
That puts the Scottish figures a bit more in line with the UK ones. Also in line with the CMOs warning to expect higher figures over the next week/fortnight.
Beats me. Maybe the CMO meant the finger prick test wouldn't work for 28 days, not that it's impossible to detect antibodies anywhere in the body at an earlier point.
I guess we'll sort this out when the finger prick test is tested.
Sunny and 20 degrees on Sunday.
I was going for a solo ride in <undisclosed place> on Sunday. As its a large forest I should be fine but it looks as though I should avoid places where I know people congregate to walk etc even more than I expected.
Just seen an interesting post on Facebook (that bastion of rational thinking). Complaining about people wearing gloves when shopping and pointing out that by wearing gloves you are spreading and infection, so instead we should all not wear gloves and wash our hands after coming out of each shop.
Only if you're stupid enough not to sanitize your gloves regularly and before you take them off for disposal. Then again, despite the British public harking on about common sense, they lack it.
Still, the social witch hunts and curtain peeping is starting to annoy me now.
And how would you have funded it all in this mythical past ? Budget from schools/education ? Poice forces ? Ambulances ? Roads ? Armed forces ? or…. well….. errrrm, you tell me.
Why did none of the other countries prepare for this pandemic for the whole of their society ? How would you have persuaded our government to do so ?
They did. The Aussies have been stockpiling for a pandemic for decades, as have others.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war, a PPE stockpile wouldn't have even been that great of an expense. It's certainly going to be more expensive for us, getting up to speed now.
Face it, your beloved Tories are incompetent.
Bloody hell, I heard about the French seizing the surgical masks but hadn’t followed the details.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/coronavirus-european-solidarity-sidelined-as-french-interests-take-priority-1.4216184
Jesus. That is going to cause a huge fallout within the EU.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war
Absolutely, old mate of mine who's did his time in the army, but continues as a territorial was just on a 3 month tour of Zambia. What the hell is the point of that, other than a jolly?.
http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200402-china-coronavirus-face-mask-france-stolen-us
Coronavirus masks that France ordered from China were bought at the last minute by the United States as they waited to be loaded onto cargo planes, French officials have said.
"I want to say a special word about testing, because it is so important, and as I have said for weeks and weeks, this is the way through," he said.
Boris develops ret-con abilities.
Coronavirus masks that France ordered from China were bought at the last minute by the United States as they waited to be loaded onto cargo planes, French officials have said.
Live by the sword, die by the sword, eh?
Prisoners dilemma at a global level isn’t it!?
Just wait till it happens with food.
The money could have come out of the armed forces budget seeing as this has always been a greater threat to society and the economy than an actual war
I don't really know what the point of nukes and supersonic jets are in 2020, but keeping an established force of government employees based around the world with access to cargo planes, ships and trucks seems like a fairly useful thing for a government to have in a time of crisis.
Deaths at 2,921 today, similar sort of rise as yesterday, but we're starting to accelerate faster than italy 🙁
hopefully effect of lockdown will be felt in a week or so
Nobeer, when I’ve done those Jollies a lot of the time they are pretty specific, either as a show of strength to show we are supporting the local government, or even as support for a sales pitch our government are making.
I’d be pretty against any more cuts to the armed forces, having served and been in a war zone with insufficient kit, that’s not nice. Happy to support this approach if we reduce our following the US into wars that we shouldn’t be involved in though.
I don’t really know what the point of nukes and supersonic jets are in 2020, but keeping an established force of government employees based around the world with access to cargo planes, ships and trucks seems like a fairly useful thing for a government to have in a time of crisis.
Well, we could pivot some of our defence spending back into classic cold war stuff like CBRN instead of tools for blowing up Afghan goat farmers or mitigating against their IEDs. There's plenty of things in the military that could serve a dual use role, if it weren't for the fact that for the past 20 years we've geared ourselves up for low intensity counter terrorism. The past few years have highlighted that the real dangers to national security still come from major state players, this latest episode is no exception - even though it's spread was an accident.
Just saw the BBC news weather forecast. Sunny and 20 degrees on Sunday. The cops are going to be busy I think.
On my alloted excerise today there seemed to be significantly more people driving round in cars than previously. Given the scent of weed from some of them, it wasn't essential travel.
On my alloted excerise today there seemed to be significantly more people driving round in cars than previously. Given the scent of weed from some of them, it wasn’t essential travel.
I have smelt more weed round local lakes & at woburn in past 2 weeks than I have ever before!
Me too, Kimbers (same spots as you too), and even I can’t keep telling myself it’s actually wild garlic I can smell off the trails.
hopefully effect of lockdown will be felt in a week or so
Sunny, weekend, step back on the policing, more cars and more people looking to push the envelope - might shape up to be another big mixer
Deaths at 2,921 today, similar sort of rise as yesterday, but we’re starting to accelerate faster than italy
I thought the same. I see a higher % increase around the same death toll. In fact UK numbers look more like Spain now. Not a brilliant outlook for UK NHS.
Meanwhile Italian numbers continuing their move down through single digit % increases, with 6% increase in death toll.
TiRed will have a properly thought out pro answer.
Beggars belief that weekend crowds are anticipated. I have to print an official form with my journey and specific reason set out. There are road blocks everywhere checking these. If they're that worried why not do similar?
Agreed bob, it's ****ing ridiculous, time for a tougher lockdown.
Beggars belief that weekend crowds are anticipated. I have to print an official form with my journey and specific reason set out. There are road blocks everywhere checking these. If they’re that worried why not do similar?
It is down to really mixed advice and guidance though. My sons motorbike was stolen a few weeks back. It has been recovered and speaking to the recovery firm they are charging £10 a day storage, and will only keep it for 2 weeks before scrapping it. As the bike is in Sheffield and we are in Lincolsnhire, I can't see how the journey to collect it is essential, but unless we want to lose the bike I can't see an alternative right now.
(the bike is uninsured, so can't be recovered by insurance)
As soon as the UK police got robust in their approach the Guardian and human rights lawyers were up in arms screaming that we were heading for a police state. Now they have had to back off a bit = more cars on road.
My estimate of less than 3700 for the Saturday was the lower limit where we can have confidence that intervention is having an effect. I think we will miss this. It does not mean that there is NO effect. It means that there is not statistically significant (19/20 level) confidence of an effect.
Just done a model fit using a traditional epidemiological conventional model on only the UK data Everybody dies! Of course they won't, but it goes to show that taking data from one country in isolation when the curve is increasing, means that the estimated parameters are VERY correlated, so you really cannot predict far with ANY confidence. My models include ALL Global data to make predictions at the country level.
Believe nothing more than 14 days with ANY confidence.
@rydster really?
it seems to be the libertarian rw nutters that dont like lockdown
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-s-pub-ban-makes-this-a-dark-day-for-br
I find this unbelievable - a US state governor saying he didn't know that asymptomatic people could transmit the virus.
What about his medical advisors, Pence's task force daily briefings, educating himself?
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/490758-georgia-governor-says-he-didnt-know-asymptomatic-people-could-spread
Well I don't read the spectator :D, but the Guardian has been up in arms about spot checks on roads and people being told to go home. Police are supposed to police by consent apparently which has been confused with a voluntary obeyance of the law. Clearly, you can't just nicely ask people to obey a lockdown any more than you can nicely ask people not to steal or murder. You need some sort of teeth.
Must be the biggest live medical experiment in our lifetimes?
Thanks as always TiRed.
Do you still have confidence of the order Spain - Italy - UK ?
That will be Sweden then. If i understood correctly you can assess the risks yourselves and choose to go to a pub or restaurant if you feel like a night out.
All open, no new social distance law's,
Be like iran soon enough if allowed to continue
Rydster,
Have you read the daily Fail, the Express, the Torygraph on the issue, people like Sherelle Jacobs, Peter Hitchens etc.much harder that the Guardian which was principally reporting Lord Sumption ( not a ‘human rights lawyer’) had said
I would argue that this link is quite even handed
Except that Sweden are slowly but surely changing their approach, like everyone else.
France numbers all down today. Hope it continues.
Where we live, we haven't been affected badly, very rural.
I have smelt more weed round local lakes & at woburn in past 2 weeks than I have ever before!
A well known anti viral for your lungs. It helps fumigate them keeping you safe. Fact.
My estimate of less than 3700 for the Saturday was the lower limit where we can have confidence that intervention is having an effect. I think we will miss this.
Is the length of time covered by deaths being reported impact on it? There were things on one of the local news programs saying deaths reported today were from a couple of weeks back.
As soon as the UK police got robust in their approach the Guardian and human rights lawyers were up in arms screaming that we were heading for a police state. Now they have had to back off a bit = more cars on road.
If you were correct about who was moaning, which you arent, the answer is for the government to act to give the police the appropriate powers surely?
Do you still have confidence of the order Spain – Italy – UK ?
At the moment, yes. Italy has support for nearing a peak. Spain also has support for reduced gradient.
That’s good news for them.
Over a million confirmed cases and 50k deaths.
So it appears that they are thinking testing could allow us to have an immunity passport so we can get out of lockdown.
So 2 things there, 1 - they are confirming their herd immunity idea and wanting everyone to get it, and 2 - they are assuming that the immunity also prevents people getting reinfected and not passing on any infections to the vulnerable.
anyone else feeling deeply concerned at that?
Plus will be see a bunch of idiots now wanting to catch it so they get their passports?
A well known anti viral for your lungs. It helps fumigate them keeping you safe. Fact.
Posted 1 hour ago
That sounds like bollocks- but I reckon it's worth a try 🙂
and 2 – they are assuming that the immunity also prevents people getting reinfected and not passing on any infections to the vulnerable. anyone else feeling deeply concerned at that?
I am quite, yes. As with almost everything concerning this virus, if feels (to a layman) like we just need to know more about it before making decisions like this.
Plus will be see a bunch of idiots now wanting to catch it so they get their passports?
Of course this will happen. It effectively punishes those of us who are doing our best not to get it by observing social distancing and rewards those who don't give a shit and are willing to roll the dice by giving them their freedom back. It's utterly f***** mental.