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It is shockingly bad, but seems to corroborate some of what's being talked about in various New Scientist/Scientific Americana articles. It will be a while before we have any decent journal articles, but I guess I can do a quick trawl of NCBI etc. Either way if there are two variants, then I would imagine that makes the likelihood of a second wave this winter a bit higher.
^^^
absolutely. Not the clearest paper but the story that appears is an unwarranted extrapolation:
Paper: S and L types: https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa036/5775463
Although the L type (∼70%) is more prevalent than the S type (∼30%), the S type was found to be the ancestral version. Whereas the L type was more prevalent in the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, the frequency of the L type decreased after early January 2020. Human intervention may have placed more severe selective pressure on the L type, which might be more aggressive and spread more quickly. On the other hand, the S type, which is evolutionarily older and less aggressive, might have increased in relative frequency due to relatively weaker selective pressure.
newer is a but nastier so detected quicker and spreads slower. But what do I know.
I provided an alternative Rayban rather the “OMG! It’s mutated into something worse”.
Cheers for the link John
That fits into the comparisons with flu, which shows bad symptoms early, so patients are isolated before they start spreading.
According to Boris..
"One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."
Basically.. just to eff all then. Let everyone catch it. This is to get it out over and done with because they don't have any other plans.
I did think perhaps I could deliberately infect myself early on so I can at least get some good hospital care before the rush later on when everyone else gets it and there is no room at the hospital.
I provided an alternative Rayban rather the “OMG! It’s mutated into something worse”.
Those Brazilian mutations don't appear to be the same.
John out of interest do you have any links that discuss the role of the sequence/sequences that are different in the L and S type due to the SNP's? eg is it something that would change how it binds to human cells?
I think Bojo should take one for the team, as he suggests. On second thoughts, he is more likely than most to spread it through person to person contact.
newer is a but nastier so detected quicker and spreads slower. But what do I know.
I agree, not the easiest paper to look at. In what context are they using the term 'aggressive' - ability to spread or lethality?
So if true, the aggressive Chinese measures might have reduced the harm to the rest of the world - if they have managed to make the older type more prevalent.
Pretty cool and hopefully good news.
the pdf is all there seems to me. Working atm and really really not my area. The english ain't great (who'm I to talk) but I think they're saying a newer form emerged with nastier symptoms but this faces greater selection pressure (i.e. cases are picked up and isolated so it can't spread as fast) and that the earlier milder version is spreading.
Those Brazilian mutations don’t appear to be the same.
So there’s 3 mutations? Don’t panic, don’t panic!
the pdf is all there seems to me. Working atm and really really not my area. The english ain’t great (who’m I to talk) but I think they’re saying a newer form emerged with nastier symptoms but this faces greater selection pressure (i.e. cases are picked up and isolated so it can’t spread as fast) and that the earlier milder version is spreading.
That's how I read it as well. Cheers! I'm off work with the sniffles so I'm bored as ****.
/\ That's what I think the Telegraph article reports if you cut through the BS - apart from when it says the more virulent strain L-type represents 70% of cases. That doesn't sound right.
That doesn’t sound right.
I suppose that at least 90% of cases have been in China, so if it was more prevalent there, then that would skew the overall percentage. I'm more interested in what type is currently in Italy, as that looks like it will be the dominant strain here.
It's quite possible that the S strain has been circulating widely elsewhere undetected, and it took the L strain killing lots of people in China in late December/early January to wake up the authorities.
I saw a chart of current 'seasonal flu' incidence in the US. It seemed, IIRC, to be unusually high in a large number of states, which makes you slightly suspicious that there might be something else mixed in with those stats.
Cheers! I’m off work with the sniffles so I’m bored as ****.
Have you got enough loo roll?
Thanks Martin. Makes sense.
Have you got enough loo roll?
No.
I intend to wipe my arse with next doors cat if it comes to it.
Seems fair
So if true, the aggressive Chinese measures might have reduced the harm to the rest of the world
I've seen other reports that suggested a fatality rate of c. 6% in Wuhan but only 0.9% in the rest of China, but that doesn't quite tally with outcomes seen in other outbreaks either.
Time to stop the public transport commutes in/to/from London, if you've not already stopped... 25 new positives.
Pondo's totally unscientific observation of the day - London seemed a bit quieter transport-wise, but not many masks in evidence. Concerned people staying home, maybe, while us other muppets carry on largely as normal?
25 new positives, is pretty low really, it hasnt exploded yet.
25 new positives, is pretty low really, it hasnt exploded yet.
Bear in mind that most of the cases in the UK are imports from other countries or close associates of them. Only a handful of locally caught cases so far (8?). So when the local transmission ramps up I expect we'll start to see more intervention in public gatherings etc.
Has anyone checked to see if there’s a **** off asteroid on its way?
Squirrel!
I see trump is questioning WHO stats....'I have a hunch they're wrong'.
Being taken as fact by some Fox news contributors.
After his presser on Tuesday, it's clear he has no understanding; no surprise there.
Cannot post link at present but will later.
That paper suggests that the newer form MAY be more virulent (speculates regarding mechanisms - the mutations appear "trivial" * and don't affect the spike - binding site for which is ACE2 which (I read) is high prevalence in mouth/tongue, so snogging of patients is out 🙁 )
IF it is more virulent, then yeah, quarantining of pts was only happening initially if/when they became symptomatic and the shit version may therofre have slipped the "net".
*they also appear to be described as polymorphisms, not mutations which are different but, err, similarish ... but I'm not a specialist and I don't really know WTF that all really means in armageddon terms (I'd have said that you can't have a "newer" polymorphism, since there have to be the pre-existing options to allow variability in the first place but that seems to be wrong)
Have you got enough loo roll?
No.
I intend to wipe my arse with next doors cat if it comes to it.
Gives you a lovely feline down below.
Sounds like a recipe for Cat Aids tbh. I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use a puppy.
The shit would clump on my Bedlington pup and leave loads of sheep like wool stuck to my arse...
Thinking about it, my Bedlington would probably be offended if I used the cat as of all things a bloody cat is my Bedlingtons best friend.
raybanwomble
Member
The shit would clump on my Bedlington pup and leave loads of sheep like wool stuck to my arse…Thinking about it, my Bedlington would probably be offended if I used the cat as of all things a bloody cat is my Bedlingtons best friend.
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
So who did rayban used to be then, before his name change?
how long have you got? 😂😂😂So who did rayban used to be then, before his name change?
Go on then....
Intrigued now. 🙂
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
I’m sure this would be relevant here if the audience here were sensible, normal individuals.
Big trade show at excel in two weeks has been ‘postponed’. Can’t say I’m to upset.
Lots of trade fairs and events being cancelled or postponed throughout Europe.
My third week without any work due to the above.
My bread and butter is events and exhibition work.
Spoke to a few clients today and they've all said that there's not much on the horizon for at least the next month,maybe two.
Normally im happy for a day or two off, but this is getting a bit much.
Well that sucks Alpin, what is it you do?
A lot of the big corporates have travel bans. So no exhibitors and no customers.
Put back until dec apparently.
I`m sure that would have been really witty and amusing if the audience here were 9 year olds
Well I laughed.
That’s a bummer Alpin.
Maybe I should offer Boris my back of a fag packet key board worrier three step education and control programme:
Nail the Basics - up your biosecurity, keep calm, it's not business as usual
Step it up - minimise contact with people, be considerate (dont hoard), life is going to be different
Do as your told - follow the instructions, don't be a dick, this will pass.
Lots of trade fairs and events being cancelled or postponed throughout Europe.
My third week without any work due to the above.
Yep - a lot of us gig-ecomony types better tighten our belts. Film and TV here - everything hits the buffers when the insurers won't cover the risk to big name cast or diispuption to schedules. Been working with a few Canadians recently who originally relocated to the UK after the Canadian film industry was torpedoed by the SARS outbreak back in the day - so it'll all be a bit groundhog day to them.
This new advert seems to have nailed the zeitgeist.
🙂
I'm a chippy. Got into the event side of it around 10 years ago after I moved to Germany.
Even smaller, private events are being cancelled because companies don't want to be seen to be adding to the problem.
Ironically, I decided to move to Germany in 2008 when site work in the UK started to dry up around the middle of 2007. De ja vu?
Bollocks.
The most annoying thing is that for the German citizenship I need a proper job (i.e. Employment) . I've got a job lined up with a company I've been working with for years. Only problem is, they're not going to take me on without any work coming in.
Nightmare.
Could you provide catering services if this ends up being mass quarantines in temporary hospitals?
Been a chef in a past life?
Could you provide catering services
Different kind of Chippy ;0)
This is to get it out over and done with because they don’t have any other plans.
Sounds like the usual MO of this ‘new’ administration.
Link to support my earlier post re trump knowing better than WHO
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number
^ sounds about right for trump and his anti-vaxxing conspiracy nutjob crowd, lets hope the entirety of his support dies off over the next few months/years due to their anti-vac beliefs.
Link to support my earlier post re trump knowing better than WHO
So, behind the headline, he is saying that the reported 'death rate' of 3-4% may be too high as most people are not that affected by it and dont report it, so if you counted those who did have it that rate would be a lot lower.
Not usually one to agree with him but this seems a classic case of Guardian Headline espousing their editorial stance with the actual article content not really stating anything that most of us dont already know?
Currently 2 deaths in Hong Kong at the moment out of a population of around 7 million in a reasonably densely packed city, hit way earlier than Europe, with Id say at least half of those either in China or had close contact with someone from China in Late Jan/Early Feb due to Chinese New Year.
As I've said before, I suspect the economic hit from this, and the actions taken to try to contain it, is going to have far worse long term consequences than the actual effect of the virus itself.
Currently 2 deaths in Hong Kong at the moment out of a population of around 7 million
148 deaths in Italy out of about 4000 confirmed cases, isn't that about 3%?
stewart - see my earlier posts about supply chain and logistical impacts of Covid-19; we're on the same page about economic impacts.
India is a major manufacturer of pharmaceuticals but has limited supplies as they have problems obtaining raw materials - from China, what a surprise
Simple example but....no paracetamol on shelf? How does that relate to covid-19?
Easy - global supply chains; when was the last time anyone you know mapped the supply chain for a product? Complicated isn't the word.
As regards trump's emission - he makes a statement as if it were fact, then says it's a hunch and implicitly challenges the WHO.
He clearly knows better than 'experts'; pffft - people who have dedicated their lives to investigating and understanding but I guess that means nothing when compared to the intuative brilliance of an NYC spiv.
Pretty sure all these have been covered in this thread...
We've had a number of hotel chains report to us that occupancy is down to 20% in London from 96%. That's fine for the hotels as they've taken payments (for now), people just aren't turning up. The knock on effect is that they aren't eating at said hotels, rooms aren't needing to be cleaned etc.. As stated before the human impact (however heartless it may sound) isn't the problem it's the economic impact.
As regards trump’s emission – he makes a statement as if it were fact, then says it’s a hunch and implicitly challenges the WHO.
He clearly knows better than ‘experts’; pffft – people who have dedicated their lives to investigating and understanding but I guess that means nothing when compared to the intuative brilliance of an NYC spiv.
Well, yea, I mean Trump knows more about Covid-19 than... just about anyone
148 deaths in Italy out of about 4000 confirmed cases, isn’t that about 3%?
Yes but the point is that is the confirmed cases. What about the 100,000 unconfirmed cases?
A UK university has done some modelling and the prof was on radio 4 the other morning and they suggest Italy has at least 100,000 cases. Same goes for UK but the models suggest UK was probably in the low 1,000s.
Pondo’s totally unscientific observation of the day – London seemed a bit quieter transport-wise, but not many masks in evidence. Concerned people staying home, maybe, while us other muppets carry on largely as normal?
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
Continue with Social avoidance, wash your hands and stop touching your mouth with them is the best advice there is.
You can’t stop yourself touching your mouth. Go on… try…
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
There's different types of masks.. is this just surgical type masks or include FFP3 / N95 masks?
Next you'll be telling us not to chew fruit pastilles!
it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic
Coronavirus is quite clearly more “impactful” than both of those diseases, as both of those diseases were more easily contained due to the visibility of their symptoms and there has been no evidence of sustained human to human transmission in H5N1. If it had, we wouldn’t be talking about Coronavirus now as H5N1 has the theoretical capacity to mutate into a form that could kill 3 billion people.
Consider this round to be practice.
You can avoid touching your mouth if you put a mask over it.
Not sure if it’s been said but the masks are proven ineffective even if worn airtight after 30 mins, as the interior warms and moistens with breath and actually becomes an ideal breeding ground. it’s been proven time again it’s not as impactful as SARS, Birdflu etc but we continue to panic.
Yeah it’s been mentioned as has the comments about the other outbreaks. It’s been proved that masks do have benefits, Ok they won’t stop it outright but they do provide protection. As for the other outbreaks the control measures put in for those and how they transfer means they soon came under control.
We issued a directive yesterday "no global travel unless business critical"
That directive came from our main client and we now have adopted their rules too. This makes our working life awkward for implementation and transformation into sites, but the client makes the call to protect their workforce and suppliers into that. APAC has been a no-go since last week, so 4 programmes have been mothballed until further notice. Thats quite a hit to our bottom line, but thats just how it is. We've retained key staff (we don't use contractors) so I've set them off on other work that needs to be completed for future implementations.
We do see some positives, it's making planning easier and resource deployment. And our clients are supporting us though these few months. I expect summertime we will know more, but Cali calling a state of emergency does seem rather extreme (thats where our main client is based) and clients seem to be taking it all in hand in a relaxed and professional manner without panic.
My wife however seems to be in some kind of self containment protocol, having bought all manner of cleaning products and gels and what not. Giving constant missives like "don't shake hands, don't touch anything, wash your hands for 4hrs15mins because....." Frankly I think she's edging towards some sort of mental breakdown and turning her into one of those ridiculous frightened Whaling Daily reader types.
As for lyingblohards comments, to be fair to him there really isn't a fat lot people can do about this apart from personal hygiene regime that people should have been employing since childhood.. Who hasn't seen folks come out of toilets without washing their hands? dirty scabs.
My bread and butter is events and exhibition work.
We've had four events cancel so far and no doubt many to follow. So far that's been 2 in the US one in Budapest and one in Berlin. Most of our work is for pharma companies and clinical trials. The last thing they want to do is ship hundreds of doctors and nurses around the world to then take this back into hospitals.
You can’t stop yourself touching your mouth. Go on… try…
It's quite hard to do, even as you're briefing people not to do it.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1235681520959901696
One of my sister-in-law's friends got a call when they were in the Uni library together yesterday.
Public Health England telling him someone he was at a party with last weekend has tested positive, and I think he needs a test now.
So that's our first "personal" connection, but it's reassuring to hear PHE appear to be very proactive about it.
Just came back from a business thing in Japan, was out there for 2 weeks. Good cheap flights, very quiet plane!
Ironically whilst our client there is not allowing their own staff to business travel or gather, but we needed to be in their Offices to coordinate project planning and delivery.
Most of our clients all over the world are now cancelling any F-F meetings and travel. We're pretty good with webex/TEAMs/conenct etc, so the team are delivering virtually and at crazy times (but no one seems to mind the no travel thing).
We still have some things on the books that are pegged as F-F for April and May, but I suspect those will also be gone soon.
So, my son's school had a confirmed pupil on Tuesday evening. Looks like the pupil had not been in school since returning from a category 2 country. PHE recommended that the school remain open.
Now they have a teacher being tested and have closed the school today for a deep clean as a precaution.
Informed HR at work. They have said that if the teacher tests positive I will be sent home. Will likely be asked not to come into the office for 2 weeks. 2 girls who sit behind me have been asked to wfh today as they live with vulnerable people.
Does this mean I have to self isolate? Seems a bit extreme.
My main stupid question of the day - are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while 'self isolating'?
We’ve had four events cancel so far and no doubt many to follow. So far that’s been 2 in the US one in Budapest and one in Berlin. Most of our work is for pharma companies and clinical trials. The last thing they want to do is ship hundreds of doctors and nurses around the world to then take this back into hospitals.
I’m supposed to be filming at ECFS in Lyon in the summer, I did wonder about events people and used them as an example when talking about sick pay and the self employed not getting any. Small businesses and the self employed are going to be hit hardest by people staying put.
Not seen an impact yet in my main line of work (Photography) but I’m pretty sure I’ll not be working on a commercial shoot in Sofia at the end of the month that was pencilled in.
A UK university has done some modelling and the prof was on radio 4 the other morning and they suggest Italy has at least 100,000 cases. Same goes for UK but the models suggest UK was probably in the low 1,000s.
You got a link to that? If so it's both good and bad I suppose, good that it's not nearly as lethal as everyone says, bad as everyone is already riddled with it.
With regards to self isolation..at what point does it become unreasonable. I.e soon enough every time you step out the door you'll be coming into contact with someone with it, or someone who has been in contact with someone who has it. Interesting when they eventually take that call.
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
One absolutely has to look after one's mental wellbeing, doubly so when working from home and isolated for a period of time. I would suggest a bike ride is a fine way to do so.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
Suggests you stay indoors.
He hasnt been asked to isolate he's been asked to work from home.
Says stay away from pets? Can my dog and cat get it!!?
Besides, how on earth would I stay away from my pets if I live alone?
Informed HR at work. They have said that if the teacher tests positive I will be sent home. Will likely be asked not to come into the office for 2 weeks. 2 girls who sit behind me have been asked to wfh today as they live with vulnerable people.
Does this mean I have to self isolate? Seems a bit extreme.
Her result should be available in 24hr. Take one* for the team in the meantime
* (day off !)
My main stupid question of the day – are you allowed to go and ride your bike on your own while ‘self isolating’?
I'd have thought that getting away from people is fine however you achieve it - will also minimise "loading" of your home environment and so possibly reduce risk to those who share it
The likelihood of transmitting the virus must be tiny if you're moving fairly quickly past places and not coming within a couple of metres of anyone (except maybe in their cars when they close-pass you). Don't spit loads, go into any shops etc or have an accident & need help, and I suspect you're right within the spirit of it despite advice to stay indoors
I’d have thought that getting away from people is fine however you achieve it – will also minimise “loading” of your home environment and so possibly reduce risk to those who share it
Absolutely.
Doing Bike Park Wales uplifts might be a bit antisocial, but how often do you encounter folk out on the moors or in the woods? The only other thing to be mindful of is wiping your nose on your glove then opening gate latches, I suppose.
I was thinking...normally quite dangerous but just wanted to ask...
There seems to be general disagreement about mortality rates etc and we seem to mostly compare them to flu rates. When we read mortality rates for flu, are they so well studied at this stage that they’re based on known and “unknown” infections, given that some of us will contract “an” influenza virus but not have anything more than manflu for a few days? Whereas estimates of total population infected by Covid-19 seem to vary quite wildly.
So I guess, I’m asking, when we’re comparing mortality rates between Covid-19 and influenza, are we dividing deaths by comparable figures?
On the plus side the £4b spent on brexit and forward planning means everything is in place to deal with C19. We will move seamlessly from the shortages and rationing of C19 to no deal brexit without noticing.
The westminster government must be laughing its socks off.