depending on to whom you are talking.
The numbers are as per my post. Facebook conspiracy groups etc may quote higher figures.
From Forbes 4 hrs ago "Coronavirus Update: Italy Mortality Rate Similar To China’s"
"What we know is that some 229 people have contracted the respiratory infection in Italy as of Monday night. Italy is now the European “epicenter” of Covid-19 with a reported seven deaths as of Monday evening. That’s the third highest death toll outside of China. Iran has reported 12 deaths. South Korea has reported 8 deaths out of 833 cases.
In Italy, roughly 3% of the confirmed number of cases ended in death as of Monday. But the number of new cases jumped early Tuesday to 270, so that has the mortality rate now at 2.6%."
I am not sure it’s more deadly than normal flu (which still kills a significant percentage of people) – the numbers vary from 3% to 10% depending on to whom you are talking.
Case Fatality of seasonal flu is roughly 0.1%. Not sure if that's in a vaccinated or unvaccinated population, but in the UK, vaccination of vulnerable groups makes a big difference in mortality. We have no vaccine for Covid 19 and even the most optimistic fatality estimates are of an order of magnitude bigger.
The other troublesome thing about this is the proportion of patients who don't die, but become seriously ill, and require extended ventilation in ICU. It 'seems' to be much higher than seasonal flu.
The current measures are designed to delay the arrival of significant numbers of cases for as long as possible. This is partly to try to stop the burden on the NHS coinciding directly with normal winter pressures, and partly to try to punt it into spring/summer, which may make it slightly harder to spread. Obviously every month you delay the onset of a full pandemic, you are a month closer to the availability of a vaccine.
From what can gather from all the info, is its a bit worse than normal flu.
As in, its less lethal than SARS, but slightly more contagious.
I think it's the contagion potential that's the real issue.
The numbers are as per my post.
Yeah but
(number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus
That apparently excludes the people who are still currently ill - some of whom may yet die. Given the fast rise in cases this may yet increase those numbers somewhat.
It's hit my town, someone from a local secondary school has it following a ski trip to Italy last week
Our local school had a trip to Italy in the half term too PHE said there’s no threat.
It’s hit my town, someone from a local secondary school has it following a ski trip to Italy last week
Cornwall, by any chance? If so, suspected rather than confirmed case.
That apparently excludes the people who are still currently ill – some of whom may yet die. Given the fast rise in cases this may yet increase those numbers somewhat.
Also excludes mild cases in the community which have not been recorded/diagnosed, the everyday sniffle nature of the symptoms in some cases will lead to people not coming forward for testing. The death rate always looks higher if you're not counting half the cases. I don't think we'll have an accurate idea for a while.
Just north of London
A school in Middlesbrough has just closed following an Italian ski trip
Similar case in Truro at my niece's school. And one of the pupils at my daughter's school got booted off home for a fortnight after rocking up from her week off in Thailand. Whether we can trust people to self-isolate in these circumstances is dubious in the extreme.
There seems to be a level of futility in even shutting a city down for a couple of weeks, it only takes one carrier to start spreading again, unless the point is to slow it down to cope with numbers better. No more deadly than flu but more contagious means more deaths, also there's a % of immunity to many flu strains in the population that isn't there with corona, so again more deaths.
There seems to be a level of futility in even shutting a city down for a couple of weeks, it only takes one carrier to start spreading again, unless the point is to slow it down to cope with numbers better. No more deadly than flu but more contagious means more deaths, also there’s a % of immunity to many flu strains in the population that isn’t there with corona, so again more deaths.
It seems to have worked in china where cases have peaked and are now dropping, so it just depends what happens to the tail end of the curve.
I suppose the bigger worry might be what happens if like flu it mutates enough to making immunization difficult/impossible and you just end up with a virus with a 2% mortality rate working it's way from one hemisphere to the other each year.
Also excludes mild cases in the community which have not been recorded/diagnosed, the everyday sniffle nature of the symptoms in some cases will lead to people not coming forward for testing. The death rate always looks higher if you’re not counting half the cases. I don’t think we’ll have an accurate idea for a while.
I was wondering that (I had a cold at the weekend).
If 100 people are confirmed to have it and 2.5% die then that's pretty bad. If there's 900 people who just had a runny nose then 0.25% doesn't seem quite so alarming.
Are there any figures for Africa infections? A large amount of Chinese currently work in Africa.
Are there any figures for Africa infections? A large amount of Chinese currently work in Africa.
Nope. I bet it is already there but nobody knows about it. Yes, plenty of Chinese work there.
Call me sceptical, are the numbers coming out of, let’s say, China, audited, confirmed and verified?
Or are they what the world wants to hear, rather than the the potentially real numbers?
Just had an email from my daughters' school basically saying if you've been to N Italy over half term do not come to school for 2 weeks regardless of how you feel!
Call me sceptical, are the numbers coming out of, let’s say, China, audited, confirmed and verified?
WHO has been out there for weeks so as accurate as can be.
I am not sure it’s more deadly than normal flu (which still kills a significant percentage of people)
I keep hearing this and I keep having to repeat myself - seasonal flu kills around 0.12-0.15 percent of those infected, so even if the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 1 percent that is still significantly higher than "normal" flu.
seasonal flu kills around 0.12-0.15 percent of those ...
... with a diagnosis - probably over half of seasonal flu "positives" are asymptomatic
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 COVID19 infected Patients, UK
.... er They are being treated in an isolation unit.
CDC and associated bodies have changed tone in America it seems. More countries in Europe now reporting cases too.
"It's not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," she said, adding: "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."
"We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad,"
They are pressing congress to release billions of dollars to prepare.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51637481
In the UK papers are saying the government plans to close schools and cut transport links (trains/ buses they mean I think) if needed.
Mock away but I've just about decided it's time to stock up on some goods. I really hope I do look back at this post and think, "what a ruddy fool I was." 👍
The key difference for the concern over normal flu is that it is novel.
Normal winter flu is controlled by a combination of people having flu jabs, people being resilient to it as it is a mutation of previous flus, a lower incubation time so lower amount of people wandering around not knowing they have it and it not being as contagious.
Some experts were predicting 60% of the population if left uncontrolled so that's 1% x 60% x 7billion = 42 million dead. Combined with the general chaos and impact to majority of people.
Based on that it would seem a good idea to control it.
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 COVID19 infected Patients, UK
A centre for infectious diseases treats people with infectious diseases shocker. You’ll never believe which other city is treating them too.
WHO has been out there for weeks so as accurate as can be.
Are the WHO working in the hospitals where it is rife or are they at a distance being fed figures by Chinese officials? The CDC don't seem too happy with how the Chinese are "working" with the WHO (wikipedia WHO)
What does "self isolation" even look like in the UK?
China seems to have begun to bring the virus under control using troops on the street and draconian restrictions on travel and gatherings.
There is absolutely no way of that being replicated in this country if Coronavirus does start spreading. We have neither a population that will tolerate it or the infrastructure to carry it out.
Are the WHO working in the hospitals where it is rife or are they at a distance being fed figures by Chinese officials?
Yes I believe so.
Vouchers in the Daly Mail could be redeemed for guns, enabling the hidden army of curtain-twitchers to enforce martial law from the comfort of their bungalows.
What does “self isolation” even look like in the UK?
it means we’re about to find out who all the pricks are
Are the WHO working in the hospitals where it is rife or are they at a distance being fed figures by Chinese officials? The CDC don’t seem too happy with how the Chinese are “working” with the WHO
We don't entirely know. The WHO is desperate to keep the Chinese authorities onside, because they need some access to the hardest hit area, and their public statements and praise for them reflect that to a certain extent.
It's hard to tell whether the apparent slowing of the increase in case numbers is the product of quarantining, or less testing, or both. The official definition of a case has changed and changed back a couple of times.
The Chinese government now appears to want to get people back to work. Whether that will simply lead to a resumption in climbing case numbers remains to be seen.
What does “self isolation” even look like in the UK?
There was a man on the news yesterday telling you what to do.
...and here's the link:
richmtb
Subscriber
What does “self isolation” even look like in the UK?China seems to have begun to bring the virus under control using troops on the street and draconian restrictions on travel and gatherings.
There is absolutely no way of that being replicated in this country if Coronavirus does start spreading. We have neither a population that will tolerate it or the infrastructure to carry it out.
Loving all of the officials and politicians coming in tv saying we can still keep it under control essentially because we’re British and awesomez and as long as we show good old fashioned British personal responsibility we’ll all be fine.
We really do think we’re better than everyone else.
Every time I hear them speak I can’t help but think of Comical Ali giving interviews whilst American bombs are exploding in nearby.
Or maybe it’s just that the Brexit stupidity shown by the establishment has irreparably warped my brain and I’m looking at everything through brexidiocy tinted glasses.
What does “self isolation” even look like in the UK?
In theory it means staying in your own home and avoiding contact with the outside world/ people. You can get food & supplies delivered to your door so not a hugely onerous ask.
AGE DEATH RATE*
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
what we keep over looking with the death rate is the rate of serious illness. It’s not a binary thing of either get a bit of a cough or die. For every death it looks like there are at least 10 times as many people getting ill enough to be at risk of dying.
so considering that with the above numbers that looks like quite a substantial stain on services but also a substantial chunk of workforce. It’s also going to be very not fun for the people who get that ill and their families.
when the rate of infection gets higher and those nearly dying folk are in much larger numbers then the death rate may well change too as people who may have pulled through won’t be getting the care they need.
In theory it means staying in your own home and avoiding contact with the outside world/ people. You can get food & supplies delivered to your door so not a hugely onerous ask.
Ahhh so getting the delivery driver sick then is just fine.
Ahhh so getting the delivery driver sick then is just fine.
Do you always have prolonged close contact with your delivery drivers?
Only with informed consent....
But presumably if you live in student halls, shared accommodation, are staying in a hotel - someone at some point is going to have to spend a few minutes near to you.
The point being, China will be delivering food using people and soldiers who have probably been given a little training in contamination control - do you think Asda or Ocado will do that for their drivers? What about litigation if these companies send drivers to people who are known to be ill?
We have neither a population that will tolerate it or the infrastructure to carry it out.
Please explain.
Please explain.
We’re idiots.
Oh and we riot over KFC running low on chicken.
what we keep over looking with the death rate is the rate of serious illness. <snipped>
so considering that with the above numbers that looks like quite a substantial stain on services
Agreed. Hence efforts to slow it so that if this does happen, it happens in summer. Whilst I'm not quite stockpiling bogroll yet (if you're going to panic, panic first, otherwise go with the flow is my maxim. Also that of my son who's still in China...) I am starting to worry about my Tour de Flanders entry. A mass participation event involving jostling against several thousand sweaty Belgians...
From that govt leaflet up there ^
2. Separate yourself from other people in your home*
You should stay in a well-ventilated room with a window to outside that can be opened, separate from other people in your home. Keep the door closed. Use a separate bathroom from the rest of the household, if available. If you have to share these facilities, regular cleaning will be required.
If a separate bathroom is not available, consideration should be given to drawing up a bathroom rota for washing or bathing, with the isolated person using the facilities last, before thoroughly cleaning the bathroom themselves (if able or appropriate*). Ensure the isolated person uses separate towels from other household members, both for drying themselves after bathing or showering and for hand hygiene purposes.If you live in shared accommodation (university halls of residence or similar) with a communal kitchen, bathroom(s) and living area, you should stay in your room with the door closed, only coming out when necessary, wearing a facemask if one has been issued to you.
If you share a kitchen with others (such as university halls of residence or similar), if possible avoid using it whilst others are present. If this is not possible then wear a facemask if you have been issued with one. Take your meals back to your room to eat. Use a dishwasher (if available) to clean and dry your used crockery and cutlery. If this is not possible, wash them by hand using detergent and warm water and dry them thoroughly, using a separate tea towel.If these recommendations cannot be implemented, then home isolation should be avoided.
Sounds like a sort of "Dad's Army" approach to self isolation.
One upside, maybe this will end out culture of presenteeism where one worker comes in half dead and gets the rest of the office sick.
One upside, maybe this will end out culture of presenteeism where one worker comes in half dead and gets the rest of the office sick.
In my industry we call that person "The Producer".
Ahhh so getting the delivery driver sick then is just fine.
No, the official advice is anyone delivering food or supplies leaves it on the doorstep and avoids contact
You can either go and find this stuff out yourself. It was all over the news. The official link is up there^
Sounds like a sort of “Dad’s Army” approach to self isolation.
it seems like perfectly reasonable common sense advice to me, explaining simple hygiene to the masses. Not quite sure what else you'd expect...government issued isolation chambers?
No, the official advice is anyone delivering food or supplies leaves it on the doorstep and avoids contact
Won’t work well in student halls, shared accommodation, any kind of flat where it’s a converted London house where there are shared spaces.
It’s better than nothing - but it’s laughable that they think we will somehow fair better than China.
