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Nothing like Universal credit for 3 big reasons
Also
4. UC is means tested (although if you get made redundant you get 6 months before means testing kicks in).
5. UC is stopped the minute you leave the country or miss an appointment for just about any reason
I think that the almost completely free housing market is a massive problem for society.
.....
The more houses cost, the more people work, and the more they work the more houses cost. The elasticity of accommodation costs soaks up most of our earning power, I think.
^^^^^^
Totally agree. But it feels like we've built ourselves into this problem and it's going to be hugely difficult to extricate ourselves from it again.
UBI might seem like the way to go but it doesn’t solve the problems inherent in the capitalist system.
It won’t improve the quality of jobs, healthcare, boost productivity, control inflation etc.
It's not often I disagree with you but I'm going to here. The central problem with capitalism (and socialism TBF) is the obligation to work. Not only does it result in pointless work, but it feeds the cycle of consumerism as it drives a mentality in people that they have to compensate for the time they've wasted at work by consuming things when they aren't in work. What's the point in doing a job you hate if you don't buy things with the money you earn?
Job guarantees are all well and good, but what about those who don't want to work, are unable, or whose acitivities can't easily be categorised as 'work'. A job guarantee scheme will simply create a massive bureaucracy of people who spend their time creating jobs and then checking if people are doing them. Not only is it a complete waste, but it's also scarily authoritarian and open to abuse and corrruption. UBI is a much simpler, fairer, and transparent system.
Yes there will be issues around fulfilling jobs which people don't want to do, and there will be inflatinary pressures. There are already ways we can combat those by higher pay or other benefits, and using the tax system and monetary system. Forcing people to do work they don't want to do can never be the answer.
In much of the country both parents are forced to work just so that they can afford a place to live, and any spare money gets given to someone else to raise their young family on their behalf. It’s insane
Very much NOT so - the vast majority of jobs do not pay enough to cover childcare cost. Most folk use informal childcare or work opposite their other halves. Thats an issue only to the more affluent in the middle classes
Now that the carers are all retraining as HGV drivers, I spy an opportunity. Each of them takes out an OAP or two in the cab with them. The drivers make a bit more cash, and the OAPs get to see a bit more of the world (well at least the lorry park in Kent).
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1433340332272410625?t=0y3Rq43szlUdC869o6-6PQ
What happened to the "Australian points style immigration system"?
Very much NOT so
It is so for a lot of people, most of whom are probably what you'd call middle class. I didn't say this was everyone, I said 'in much of the country' which means a significant number of people not everyone. I don't use words like 'majority' or anything that suggests an actual figure.
Not only is it a complete waste
I acknowledge your points @dazh but the JG jobs need not be a complete waste. There are lots of things that need doing but aren't done because of budgets and things that aren't 'economically viable'. Stuff that would just make people happier for example. And there are severe shortages of lots of jobs because for various reasons people aren't starting businesses to do them.
There are lots of things that need doing but aren’t done because of budgets and things that aren’t ‘economically viable’.
True but why do things that need doing which currently go unpaid need to be defined as jobs? If a UBI is generous enough then pretty much any (usually voluntary) activity that people do becomes a paid ‘job’. It doesn’t require any bureaucracy or organisation, let alone anyone checking up on what is being done, it just happens.
Very much NOT so – the vast majority of jobs do not pay enough to cover childcare cost. Most folk use informal childcare or work opposite their other halves. Thats an issue only to the more affluent in the middle classes
Are you sure that's true?
I'm willing to be convinced it is - but intuitively if the median household disposable income is just over 30k ( https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2020provisional#glossary) it feels like you might be wrong with the bits I've put in bold. Bearing in mind that this data is all households so includes those not in work so on benefits or pensions.
And this data seems to suggest (I've only skimmed the first few pages)
that 64% of children under 4 are in formal childcare for some of the week (and 57% pay for at least some of this). I know that's % of children not % of parents, and its the under 4s (but that's when most expensive) but whilst I think there's lots of informal childcare going on, is it really most? I'm not convinced the most affluent middle classes are the ones with the problem - they might be the ones that moan the most though.
Now of course, some may be deciding not to have children or not to have another child because of the cost of child care.
Just for anyone idly reading this great thread, the bits that are stated as facts by folk here about the current welfare state/UC rules are, from what I've read so far, woefully inaccurate and and in most cases just wrong.
There's also been a gross misrepresentation of the childcare situation/entitlement for many working families.
I've not actually read anything yet which is correct, apart from the spelling.
And that's the last I'll say on it!
Carry on.
What we need is a shift away from the attitude that work is something where you sign a contract, turn up for 8 hours 5 days per week, and are given money for doing so.
Okay. I work in a nuclear power station on shifts. TJ was a nurse. What's to stop us just saying sod it, we're going for a ride today. Meanwhile our posts go unfilled. Probably not the worst thing in the world as it cam be managed. Now 4 men from my shift decide to go out on the piss instead of working. What then? You can't just turn it off till enough folk are there to operate it.
There are thousands of jobs like this in the country. The actual key worker jobs that have been roundly ignored because they're invisible and without it the infrastructure that underpins the country would just grind to a half or worse.
This isn't a criticism of UBI but rather the notion that we should be relying on people spending significant portions of their life training and then working in critical posts for no reward other than a pat on the back. You can't run a nation like that. They tried that in Spain IIRC and it didn't work. 100 years later its not going to be any easier.
Agree, UBI isn't about being able to just work when you choose to. UBI is about everyone having a very basic income meaning they have money to eat, pay rent and bills. Nobody then lives in fear of losing their job, changing jobs with a bit of a gap etc,. as they have a safety net.
Someone earning even £10K (On top of UBI) is not going to just say sod it, I won't bother working anymore as they still want/need the additional money to live their life. Anyone earning £30K is going to be sodding it even less.
Everyone has a basic safety net and the not fit for purpose benefit system disappears
Fundamentally changing how work and pay function in a capitalist society is just naive dreaming and will never happen.
Okay. I work in a nuclear power station on shifts. TJ was a nurse. What’s to stop us just saying sod it, we’re going for a ride today.
Presumably some people are quite happy to sign contracts, turn up every day, and get fairly compensated for it.
We aren't all like that.
It probably helps if you feel like you are making a positive contribution to society. For me, personally, if I don't feel like I'm making a positive contribution to society I start to feel like every day is just another day waiting to die. Then I start to think why not just hurry the process along.
When I'm making an actual positive contribution, I'm happy, motivated, and able to make contributions that improve efficiency for the entire company. When I'm not I'm depressed and often suicidal. But I turn up anyway. Got to pay the mortgage, after all.
UBI isn't going to eliminate essential work because everyone is going to the pub. It's going to reduce the bullshit work that is done because people won't have to turn up just so they don't get fired.
for no reward other than a pat on the back
I think you have misunderstood something. The idea isn’t that everyone receives the same income, no matter what their skills or job, it is simply that everyone has a guaranteed minimum income. The financial motives/rewards for work would still exist. Capitalism doesn’t end because of UBI, there is just a bit of rebalancing and a change to how we ensure some security of income in the modern world.
May I take a step back and ask what is the root problem is trying to be solved? Sometimes I feel like lots of ideas are symptom treatment and are missing the next level (or several) of abstraction?
Is it fear, hunger, stress?, The first two levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs (food, water, warmth rest, safety security)?
There's a shortage in my industry and I can see exactly why.
1. Lack of apprenticeships/training.
2. Unusual hours and in a lot of cases 24 hour call, often 6 day weeks
3. Taxation and trackers on vehicles.
4. Lack of freedom (see trackers).
5. Endless traffic, problems parking. Public transport is not an option.
6. No facilities, treated like crap by posh office types.
7. High skill expectations for average wages.
I was recently asked what it would take to bring a new starter up to speed on electrical. I said, Day release or evening classes for a few years.
The reply was, 'i was thinking something like a two day course'
I typed this whilst waiting to be allowed to start work after the client demanded a 7am call. Its 8.35 I've been up since 5 and if the van gets a ticket because I go over my parking, I'm supposed to pay it. I won't but thats not the point.
I think you have misunderstood something. The idea isn’t that everyone receives the same income, no matter what their skills or job, it is simply that everyone has a guaranteed minimum income. The financial motives/rewards for work would still exist. Capitalism doesn’t end because of UBI, there is just a bit of rebalancing and a change to how we ensure some security of income in the modern world.
I know that, I was responding to BruceWee's post on the previous page that suggested we should stop working set times for money. I know full well what UBI is and fully support it.
Presumably some people are quite happy to sign contracts, turn up every day, and get fairly compensated for it.
We aren’t all like that.
It probably helps if you feel like you are making a positive contribution to society. For me, personally, if I don’t feel like I’m making a positive contribution to society I start to feel like every day is just another day waiting to die. Then I start to think why not just hurry the process along.
When I’m making an actual positive contribution, I’m happy, motivated, and able to make contributions that improve efficiency for the entire company. When I’m not I’m depressed and often suicidal. But I turn up anyway. Got to pay the mortgage, after all.
UBI isn’t going to eliminate essential work because everyone is going to the pub. It’s going to reduce the bullshit work that is done because people won’t have to turn up just so they don’t get fired.
I'd suggest* in your case the solution is a zero hours or flexible working contract that enables you to turn up to work when you are fit without penalising you when you aren't. UBI would enable that along with the previously discussed rebalancing of power in zero hours contracts which is, again, something I'd completely support. That's not what you were suggesting before which is just utopian collectivism.
*knowing full well I know nothing of your personal circumstances beyond what you've said here.
I was recently asked what it would take to bring a new starter up to speed on electrical. I said, Day release or evening classes for a few years.
The reply was, ‘i was thinking something like a two day course’
Is shit management really the endemic problem in the UK? How does your boss not know the extent of the skills required to do the job they manage?
That’s not what you were suggesting before which is just utopian collectivism.
I think what I was suggesting was that currently we do not consider looking after someone elses kid or just helping out friends is work, even though we don't recognise it as such.
Work being defined solely by what you get paid for doing is the wrong definition, imo.
I’d suggest* in your case the solution is a zero hours or flexible working contract that enables you to turn up to work when you are fit without penalising you when you aren’t.
Actually, the solution would be to start my own business. I'm working towards that but I'm meeting extreme resistance from my partner (she's worried about losing the house, stavation, etc if it doesn't work out).
It's looking like at some point I'm going to have to choose between ditching a job that is eating my soul and my relationship with the mother of my kids. Fun times.
Just think of UBI as benefits that actually work for you and you can rely on, without strings and with no trauma to get.
Fundamentally changing how work and pay function in a capitalist society is just naive dreaming and will never happen.
So says the STW harbinger of doom. 😀
UBI doesn’t replace the capitalist system, but the change in our attitudes to work will be revolutionary, and inevitable IMO. Currently something like 4 million people drive a vehicle for a living. What happens when self-driving cars replace them in 20 years time? Same goes for accountants, doctors, software developers, engineers, lawyers, and all sorts of other professions which will be automated?
Is shit management really the endemic problem in the UK? How does your boss not know the extent of the skills required to do the job they manage?
Not my boss, 'business development' or some other bs title.
I think there is a lack of respect for any trade/skill which isn't IT or some kind of management/sales
So says the STW harbinger of doom.
Nope, just living in the real world as usual instead of dreaming about things that will simply never happen.
The work and pay system in the UK will not change noticeably in the next 20 years and I would be willing to make a very large bet on that. We are very likely to have a Tory government for the next 20 years, what changes do you think they will make to enable your dreams?
I think there is a lack of respect for any trade/skill which isn’t IT
It's no better in IT. Managers have even less idea of what actually goes on in IT development and design than in many other areas. It's like trying to explain automotive engineering to a 4th century Roman.
The work and pay system in the UK will not change noticeably in the next 20 years and I would be willing to make a very large bet on that. We are very likely to have a Tory government for the next 20 years, what changes do you think they will make to enable your dreams?
I don't think anyone believes otherwise, but we can still talk about it can't we? It's interesting from an economic point of view, and the more the public discusses these things the more informed we'll be and the more that will contribute to politics in future. What we are doing now is a vital part of democracy, and a lot more useful than mud-slinging and bickering.
instead of dreaming about things that will simply never happen.
I’m often guilty of dreaming, but not on this. All you have to do is think what’s going to happen to the millions whose jobs will disappear in the next 20-30 years? One way or the other, whether it’s UBI or something else, people are going to need support to live in a world with less available ‘work’ as we conceive it now.
I think what I was suggesting was that currently we do not consider looking after someone elses kid or just helping out friends is work, even though we don’t recognise it as such.
Work being defined solely by what you get paid for doing is the wrong definition, imo.
Fair enough, that's not how I took it at that point. I completely agree with that though, it's what I imagine "big society" to actually mean.
Actually, the solution would be to start my own business. I’m working towards that but I’m meeting extreme resistance from my partner (she’s worried about losing the house, stavation, etc if it doesn’t work out).
It’s looking like at some point I’m going to have to choose between ditching a job that is eating my soul and my relationship with the mother of my kids. Fun times
Best of luck with that, my missus is starting her own bookkeeping business and it's been a slow start. Luckily she is working part time so can do both, might be an option? I wouldn't worry about your partner, if you have a good and realistic entry and exit plan that makes all the difference.
I think probably because housing became more expensive – I think that the almost completely free housing market is a massive problem for society. Why do we make one of the most essential things for life so vulnerable to exploitation? In much of the country both parents are forced to work just so that they can afford a place to live, and any spare money gets given to someone else to raise their young family on their behalf. It’s insane. And most of that money ends up in the hands of people who own land, property, or building businesses. The more houses cost, the more people work, and the more they work the more houses cost. The elasticity of accommodation costs soaks up most of our earning power, I think.
Exactly this.
It isn't an accident though, this is precisely what the Thatcher-led government intended. The trajectories of the UK and Norway - and what their governments chose to with North Sea oil revenue - since the end of the 1970s show this.
Both countries have produced roughly similar quantities of crude oil (the UK slightly more) but Norway chose to establish a sovereign wealth fund and invest the profits there, on behalf of the citizenry on the basis that the natural resources belonged to the Norwegian people. Today, that fund owns around 1% of the world's stocks and Norway's citizens are the second-richest - in terms of GDP per capita - in the world (after Luxembourg) as a result.
The Thatcher government chose a different path - the bulk of the profit was spent on mortgage tax relief policies, creating the housing market we enjoy today. The actual material wealth from oil revenue was enjoyed by the private sector, while the mortgaged 'homeowner' was tricked into feeling wealthy by measuring household wealth by the reported value of the property owned by their mortgage provider. This figure provided a means of credit to fuel consumer spending and the government chose to measure the economic prosperity of the UK on this basis.
This strategy, while appealing to the economic instincts of Tory voters, also had a remarkable ideological benefit for the leadership as well - the increase in mortgaged home ownership led to a direct reduction in the appeal of the trade unions and the financial burden of state housing. If you have to work to pay a mortgage in order to maintain the roof over your head - rather than a default of the state providing housing for working people - then you're a whole lot less likely to rock the boat if your employer starts to treat you like shit.
Those of us with mortgages today, and those who aspire to have mortgages tomorrow, are simply living with the effects of successive governments merrily perpetuating this economic model because it suits their backers to do so.
And still England votes in Conservative governments.
The work and pay system in the UK will not change noticeably in the next 20 years and I would be willing to make a very large bet on that. We are very likely to have a Tory government for the next 20 years, what changes do you think they will make to enable your dreams?
I think you're overestimating the effect a government has on the economy. Even if a different party got in and on Day one declared 'all IT workers are scum, long live the tradesman', what difference would it actually make? Bugger all. The workd would still depend on IT to keep everything going and pay rates for brickies woudln't suddenly double overnight.
I think you’re overestimating the effect a government has on the economy.
Maybe, but they have an effect and can certainly push the direction of something and enable one thing to happen over another thing.
I’m often guilty of dreaming, but not on this. All you have to do is think what’s going to happen to the millions whose jobs will disappear in the next 20-30 years? One way or the other, whether it’s UBI or something else, people are going to need support to live in a world with less available ‘work’ as we conceive it now.
As I have said before to you, dreaming is great and so are grand ideas. But 20 years is not that long, think back to 20 years ago and it was not really any different from now from a jobs/pay/work point of view. Some jobs disappear, others appear - just as they always have.
But 20 years is not that long, think back to 20 years ago and it was not really any different from now from a jobs/pay/work point of view.
Well we've been on a slow trend of job stratification for the last 20 years or more. Work is polarising into 'Barristers and Baristas' (pinched from the Guardian). A high value add, high skill upper tier of knowledge based workers who have secure well paid jobs and a huge underclass of low skill, low value add, insecure, sub living wage roles eg warehouse work, gig econonomy etc. I guess tradespeople (plumbers, sparkies etc) sort of fit in the thin middle, above poverty wages, but not well paid either.
Presumably some people are quite happy to sign contracts, turn up every day, and get fairly compensated for it.
We aren’t all like that.
Whilst I agree with a degree of socialism. Surely you've just outlined the fundamental flaw with communism?
Much as I like my job, if I didn't have to do it, I wouldn't. Very few people would, that's why we have retirement. And even if a healthy proportion did still work, they would then be paying yet another set of taxes to cover this UBI.
I don't object to UBI as an alternative to UC and set at a minimum level to avoid poverty. But if people were able to actively choose between working and going out riding, then that's going to have problems.
That's the point, UBI would be set at a level to avoid poverty not to a level where everyone goes out riding their bike every day while having enough UBI money to buy luxury items, go on holiday, have a car etc,.
Much as I like my job, if I didn’t have to do it, I wouldn’t.
So? You'd be much poorer than you are now, but could eat every day without chasing after benefits. I'd be very surprised if you didn't pretty soon start thinking about how you could earn some more money to improve your lot.
You’d be much poorer than you are now, but could eat every day without chasing after benefits. I’d be very surprised if you didn’t pretty soon start thinking about how you could earn some more money to improve your lot.
So we agree that it would be a lot easier to replace Universal Credit with UBI.
What weekly £ amount do you propose we set it to?
This is the crux of UBI
Whilst I agree with a degree of socialism. Surely you’ve just outlined the fundamental flaw with communism?
Firstly, as has already been said, UBI has nothing to do with communism or socialism. It is one of the few ideas with strong supporters and opponents on both the left and the right. Opponents on the right call it a communist trap, opponents on the left call it a capitalist neo-liberal trap.
The dividing line is between those who subscribe to the cult of work regardless of whether it is useful or not and those who don't.
Secondly, if you find your job so disagreeable that you would quit if UBI came along (and accept the severe cap it would put on your lifestyle) then I would say it is a job you shouldn't be doing.
As I've said earlier, I wouldn't quit my job straight away. I would see if I could make some improvements to the conditions and if my employer couldn't or wouldn't make those adjustments then they can find someone else to do my job while I go off and start my own business.
^^ that and housing.
What weekly £ amount do you propose we set it to?
Can't give a precise figure but I would say whatever the state pension is would be a good start.
Can’t give a precise figure but I would say whatever the state pension is would be a good start.
Thanks
Answers like this help move on a discussion
Currently the state pension is £179.60 a week or £9,339 per year
That would be a level at which I could just about get by on a monthly basis.
But bear with me.....
£9,339 per annum x 65million (~uk population) = £607bn
2020/21 uk welfair budget is ~£212bn
So we'd have to find and extra £395bn a year in taxation
Across a working population of ~31million people, that would an additional £6,800 of tax to be paid by everyone working (assuming UBI doesnt affect the incentive to work)
Currently the average person in the uk pays ~£4,000 of tax a year
See how unaffordable this is?
See how unaffordable this is?
Oh my God, you're right. No one has ever thought of that!
Oh wait, no. It's literally the first thing they thought of.
The people earning nothing pay no tax so they get their £179.60.
As you start to earn the tax rate increases so in real terms you see less and less of that £179.60 until you reach a point where you are effectively giving it straight back. If you want to get into the details about exactly what these tax bands should be you can have that discussion with someone else because it's impossible to accurately predict until we have more data.
Meanwhile, you have reduced the costs of the bureaucracy involved in pensions, benefits, etc to 0.
See how affordable this is?
How many of the 65 million are under working age or above retirement age?
Under working age? No UBI.
Over retirement age? Already getting their pension so no net change.
As you start to earn the tax rate increases so in real terms you see less and less of that £179.60 until you reach a point where you are effectively giving it straight back. If you want to get into the details about exactly what these tax bands should be you can have that discussion with someone else because it’s impossible to accurately predict until we have more data.
So you're proposing a 100% tax rate for the first £9,330 of paid employment?
Not really an incentive to work is it?
Meanwhile, you have reduced the costs of the bureaucracy involved in pensions, benefits, etc to 0.
The costs of operating DWP are ~£4bn a year.
Just another £391bn to find...
Under working age? No UBI.
Actually, I would give it to everyone.
I would get rid of child benefit and the state pension though.
So you’re proposing a 100% tax rate for the first £9,330 of paid employment?
Not really an incentive to work is it?
That's not how I read that, but then I'm not looking to poke holes in UBI...
How many of the 65 million are under working age or above retirement age?
About 65 less 31, so 34 million.
Under working age? No UBI.
Surely there are costs of supporting children so they would get this universal payment too?
Otherwise you'd be penalising families
Over retirement age? Already getting their pension so no net change.
Pensions are within the Welfare budget, so those amounts are included within the £212bn figure, which I netted off.