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I think that we’re still trading oil and gas with Russia (Boris doesn’t think sanctioning Russian oil is the right move), surely this has got to stop. On the energy front I think that Germany is the most exposed.
In fairness to Boris (not often you'll hear me say that!) he knows he's playing a very fine balancing act. The public are obsessed with the cost of petrol - if he plays it wrong that, not covid, not parties, not immigration, not brexit, but the price of driving your car to the golf course / mtb trails / shopping centre could be the end of his government. If he manages to get the British public demanding policies that increase immigration AND push up petrol prices he'll have achieved something no other British prime minister has ever achieved. I think its actually quite a clever move.
War is just capitalism with the nicer edges rubbed off.
There were wars before capitalism. There have been wars fought between socialist countries. Equating war with capitalism is utterly useless in explaining anything.
I’m not clear how quickly game over happens? or what it actually means? Starvation for the Russian People? No ammo for the troops? China revoking their tacit support? An uprising in Russia that sees the President replaced?
Russia still needs raw materials for production. It can't pay up front, it can't promise to pay, it's not got access to it's own foreign income accounts and can't access any other sources can't pay in it's own currency; the Ruble ain't worth shit, and there are already loan repayments with western and Chinese banks that are coming due. No materials, factories close, workers aren't paid...and you know the rest
I’m not sure if, when faced with the realities of game over, does a madman with Nuclear weapons risk going out with a bang?
Nope; the Chinese negotiate a ceasefire (is where I think this is going)
Correct me, but Germany and Japan were very isolated and disconnected before they “kicked” off.
Japan kicked off in 1941 because they were disconnected against their will. They were totally dependent on imported oil, rubber, etc. The U.S. gave them an ultimatum to either withdraw from China or face crippling sanctions. The Japanese leaders rejected the ultimatum and decided that they needed to go to war while they still could. Catastrophic mistake.
But a thread about a current war in Ukraine’s probs. not the best place for a discussion of the reasons why 2nd WW happened
I don't know, if we want to evaluate the appetite of various people for continued conflict, then history is the only guide we have to do that. Most historians point to the price the German people paid after WW1 being a contributing factor to WW2. While the pictures coming from Ukraine anger me enough to wish the Russian people be left in the economic stone age for years, the rational part of me knows this sows a bad seed for future decades.
More recently, one of the issues which made Iraq a disaster was that, during the war itself, no-one considered what would happen in the aftermath.
We need to defeat Putin, but we also need to understand that military defeat does not deliver peace.
Equating war with capitalism is utterly useless in explaining anything.
Yeah got me, and this war isn't even about capitalism. But I'd still argue that the idea that trade or interconnectedness makes humans less likely to go to war isn't a very good rule of thumb. I could make a pretty convincing argument that mercantilism or capitalism has been the a major cause of interstate war since ooohhhh, about the 15thC.
No materials, factories close, workers aren’t paid…and you know the rest
No I don't - I genuinely don't know what happens at that point. I could perhaps predict it for a rational government or a population that is well informed about what is going on, but I have no idea what happens in Putin's Russia.
the Chinese negotiate a ceasefire (is where I think this is going)
A ceasefire would be a good outcome right now - its a temporary measure. It would seem sensible for China to do this before their loans are defaulted on. In terms of lasting security I don't understand what that looks like if they've already started defaulting on loans? e.g. I could imagine a totally bankrupt Russia with a different leadership keen to rebuild, agreeing that the west would bail out its Chinese loans if it got rid of its nuclear arsenal so that the threat of the same shit again is massively reduced. I can't see Putin ever considering that, he'd rather his own people starve than not have that ultimate threat.
Naive question for the armchair military experts - with the Russian mega-convoy stuck outside Kyiv, why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins? Or are they doing that and it's just not widely reported?
BBC News - Why doesn't Ukraine attack the Russian convoy? And other questions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60617145
That's a great question- not sure if the experts have an answer either^^. I had assumed that the Russians had them pinned down with artillery fire, but what do I know 🤷♂️
Have we done the 20yr Russian athlete displaying the Z symbol on the podium yet at the Qatar Apparatus World Cup?
Doesn't bode well for the young generation overthrowing Putin given he should have access to non Russian news.
had assumed that the Russians had them pinned down with artillery fire, but what do I know 🤷♂️
Who knows? I'm sure it is defended in some regard, and significant resources are having to be mustered to resupply it at that distance from the Belarus border, so just having it sitting there is chewing through diesel, rations and manpower that could be deployed differently. Apparently properly cold weather is on the way for Ukraine, which could add to the problems for it.
Have we done the 20yr Russian athlete displaying the Z symbol on the podium yet at the Qatar Apparatus World Cup?
Ironically, he came third, and a Ukrainian gymnast won, so he should be displaying an 'L', really.
Doesn’t bode well for the young generation overthrowing Putin given he should have access to non Russian news.
We don't know if this is something he did voluntarily or at the behest of coaches and whatever FSB agent is trailing around after his team. Russia doesn't have access to a lot of international sporting events right now.
State stooge ?
The more I see that "Z" symbol, especially in its red and black form, the more I'm convinced that Putin's "denazification" line is the most horrific example of accusing others of using your own tactics.
Naive question for the armchair military experts – with the Russian mega-convoy stuck outside Kyiv, why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins? Or are they doing that and it’s just not widely reported?
Theres a few theories.
One is that the convoy could still defend itself, so it's less effort for teh Ukraine forces to conserve thier effort and resourses and just starve them out, if the convoy isn't going anywhere or getting re-supplied.
They’ve flooded the area where it is so it can’t move anyway.
i was thinking the 'Z' is becoming a symbol like the swasticka
why can the UA forces not pick it off with drones and Javelins?
Guessing that since it's basically stuck anyway they would rather use their resources to try and stop the cities being shelled.
But, yeah, nukes.
Yeah, Mutually Assured Destruction 🙁
I see the Home Office response continues to be 'world-beating' and generous. Apparently they've processed over 100 applications so far. Though there's still no processing point at Calais and they're still being directed to go to Paris to apply for a visa, which will then take a week for a decision, which will invariably be 'computer says no'
You couldn't make it up
This country is an absolute embarrassment
Latest Task & Purpose/ Chris Cappy update^^
It offers some credible explanation for the whole 40 mile convoy thing
Have we done the 20yr Russian athlete displaying the Z symbol on the podium yet at the Qatar Apparatus World Cup?
Doesn’t bode well for the young generation overthrowing Putin given he should have access to non Russian news.
Putin is incredibly popular in Russia right now. It's almost as if he has a vice like grip on all media
………and the polling companies!
Its mad what you can get people to believe when you've spent decades developing a false narrative and ruthlessly punishing anyone who dares to suggest it might be a load of old bollocks
It's just a waiting game for ukraine I think, they just need to stand ground rather than go on the offensive, If russia is already struggling with logistics it's only going to get worse as teh Ruble continues to plunge... it's lost circa 40% of it's value in the last 10 days compared to other major currencies.
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=EUR&view=1M
The longer they can 'sit tight' the weaker the russians will be.
17,000+ visa's to enter the UK applied for by Ukrainian refugees.
A massive 300 approved.
Liz Truss is now saying completely different things to Priti Patel about a posiible processing centre being set up.
There is still no visa processing available in Calais. Refugees have to make an appointment to apply for a visa in the Paris centre. The next available appointment is 17th March
Jesus wept! I absolutely despise these inhuman incompetent arseholes
The system is broken by design. It's not incompetence. Our government has made it much harder to come here as a refugee than it is for any EU country. It is not a mistake.
Indeed. A Tory MP has tabled an emergency question in the commons to find out what on earth the Home Office is playing at. I hope the answer is honest: carrying out the policies that you voted for to make sure no furners arrive on these shores.
EDIT: Priti Vacant has ducked it, presumably so as not to get torn a new one by Yvette Cooper yet again. She's sent an underling who is stumbling through some bag of old bollocks about not letting people in 'to prevent another case like the Salisbury poisonings'
Seriously.
Good but depressing video shermer
Bodes very ill for civilian populations
some bag of old bollocks about not letting people in ‘to prevent another case like the Salisbury poisonings’
Rather than getting our shit together and having another case like the Ugandan crisis 🙄
Putin is incredibly popular in Russia right now. It’s almost as if he has a vice like grip on all media
Possibly, or possibly the population of Russia know that they're going to jail if they don't tow the line, therefore most will not publicly say they don't agree with everything he does/says. No doubt about control of the media but they've also just set out in law exactly how ALL schoolteachers must now teach ALL children in Russia about how they're 'denazifying' and 'deweaponising' Ukraine
teh Ruble continues to plunge… it’s lost circa 40% of it’s value in the last 10 days compared to other major currencies.
When is it replaced by the Rubble?
Good but depressing video shermer
Bodes very ill for civilian populations
Someone put me on to Chris Cappy earlier in the thread, he seems to know at least some of what he is talking about
The bits manages to pronounce anyway lol
Seems Alastair Campbell and you are in agreement @kelvin. Thats got to be a first 😉
You're both right though
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1501179149745999873?s=20&t=1rtgupoGOx8dujaFIL587A
They're up to their usual... saying one thing but doing another
Could UK.gov be being a bit soft on Russia on purpose? They are funded heavily by Russia we know that, and Boris has many Russian ties. Perhaps he' playing up to Putin on the basis he needs to show solidarity with the EU, but at the same time not cut off his pocket money...
They’re up to their usual… saying one thing but doing another
They usual say both, and hope that the two separate halves of their support hear the version they want... In this case.. "we're keeping 'em out for your safety" is one line for the anti-foreigner support, and the "doing all we can as a decent Christian top button done up, wear a shirt and tie to the pub country... reunite families" support.
Its mad what you can get people to believe when you’ve spent decades developing a false narrative and ruthlessly punishing anyone who dares to suggest it might be a load of old bollocks
Yes but, I've personally been surprised just how much Russians I've known living long term in this country have been positive about Putin. In one narrative he's taken the country from the relegation zone back to the top of the table , respected as a global power (military). That bronze medal gymnast lad didn't look to me like was wearing the semi-swastica out of fear. And so what if the people don't have the latest car or whatever? They're used to worse, in folk memory.
My point: it's slowly sinking in that this is a ten year thing at very least, and a will have a lot bigger impact than the World Trade Centre attacks on our lives.
(I'd absolutely love to have this quoted back to me in a couple of months when it's all blown over, depending on what it is that blows over us from the east).
My god I agree with Alistair Campbell!
My god, I agree with johnx2.
More ex military analysis.
Boils down to logic not emotion.
Johnx2 is probably right
Either we support a ukranian insurgency for the long haul or we face a painful climbdown and the liklihood of Russia invading other Eastern bloc countries next
Could UK.gov be being a bit soft on Russia on purpose? They are funded heavily by Russia we know that, and Boris has many Russian ties. Perhaps he’ playing up to Putin on the basis he needs to show solidarity with the EU, but at the same time not cut off his pocket money…
Well, the original plan for freezing Russian assets in the UK was to give them 18 months to 'register' them (ie stash them somewhere else) before UK authorties can touch them. 18 MONTHS!!!!!!!! Labour are trying to get that down to 28 days. If that doesn't stink of corruption, then I'm struggling to think of somwthing that does
Either we support a ukranian insurgency for the long haul or we face a painful climbdown and the liklihood of Russia invading other Eastern bloc countries next
At risk of sounding callous, I meant the bigger deal for the world is the isolation of Russia regardless of how things pan out in Ukrain (my money fwiw is on them still having a country in a couple of years, probably not the same shape it was a couple of weeks ago).
Less about you binners…lets get back to talking about Ukraine.
I deny all knowledge of any pie-based death squads
"Its mad what you can get people to believe when you’ve spent decades developing a false narrative and ruthlessly punishing anyone who dares to suggest it might be a load of old bollocks"
Nope, all it takes is for people to want to believe it. Brexit and populist leaders like Trump taught us that.
I partially disgree. Yes, some people will believe any old bollocks if they want to - but you can make others believe if you have enough control over the narrative. Even if people consider themselves discerning viewers you can fool them into thinking they've been discerning if you manipulate all the alternative viewpoints to which they have access.
Tory MP has accused Pritti Patel of not telling the truth yesterday with what she told the House about arrangements for refugees.
And pointed out that such actions were a resigning offence up till recently.
Priti Patel explicitly said at the despatch box that a visa processing centre has been set up by the Home Office in Calais, Yvette Cooper disputed it and she literally denied that she'd said it
The rot starts from the top and when you've a man as PM who lies as easily he breathes, the rest of them just do the same. The blatant lies are just a given with this lot. What's more worrying is what this betrays about their real attitude towards the refugees they claim to be helping.
Its abundantly clear that they literally couldn't give a flying **** about refugees and they've zero intention of taking in anything above the absolute bare minimum into the UK
Its no wonder she dodged parliament today to avoid facing Yvette Cooper after she lied to her yesterday
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1501188796095905795?s=20&t=pbqvt42yroE_ykFCwvx-bQ
It's a ****ing disgrace. These aren't economic migrants, not that we treat those fairly either. They have lives, relatives, jobs, families to go back to in Ukraine. They do not want to come here, they are literally running for their lives carrying babies and pets.
And so what if a handful of them decide to stay and build a life here? They have shown the determination to get across Europe to safeguard the people they love. Why wouldn't they be an asset to 'global ****ing Britain'?
Pretty much every other decent human in a decent, civilised country has taken one look, and waived visa requirements.
It just shows how small we have become, how pathetic and petty. The EU is well shot of us.
It’s amazing quite how disgusting the Government are;
Britain should refrain from criticising Ireland’s open-door policy towards Ukrainian refugees, an influential Conservative MP has said, after anonymous briefings claimed it was creating a security risk for the UK.
Simon Hoare, the chair of the Northern Ireland affairs committee and frequent commentator on Anglo-Irish relations, tweeted: “Instead of criticism of our Irish friends and neighbours, [the UK] could be much better replicating its response.”
A British government source alleged that this opened a back door to the UK. “Ireland has basically opened the door to everyone in Ukraine which creates a problem,” they told the Telegraph.
The best thing journalists could do is to refuse to quote anonymous government officials. It allows those in power to propagate multiple contradictory stories, with plausible deniability and no accountability.
It seems that even the few remaining sane members of the Tory party are baulking at the inhumanity presently on display by this disgrace of a government
https://twitter.com/BBCWomansHour/status/1501219444361764865?s=20&t=pbqvt42yroE_ykFCwvx-bQ
World-leading
Would it be possible for the Scottish Govt to go against Westminster and to waive the visa requirements?
Would it be possible for the Scottish Govt to go against Westminster and to waive the visa requirements?
Nope. UK Borders are not a devolved matter.
Would it be possible for the Scottish Govt to go against Westminster and to waive the visa requirements?
Don’t thing immigration is a devolved power. There are areas of the country that would welcome a bit of immigration to help reverse an ageing demographic trend
Given that an estimated 1 million EU workers have left the UK due to Brexit, you’d think we’d be grateful for a few fruit and veg pickers, or some extra care workers?
Uh, this is no place for comedy but dynati's video does start with Brass Eye clips....
Edit Day Today
Although having seen the clip before it which appears to be real but shouldn't be perhaps fair enough
It’s all very well calling for visa free entry to anyone who says they are from Ukraine but this creates a huge problem for Social Services and other government functions who have statutory duties e.g. child safeguarding / care of minors that do not have family etc etc.
This is already a massive issue with a significant number of Local Authorities already unable to take new arrivals due to the constant flow from Calais.
There is also the issue that Putin has already inferred punishment will be forthcoming for Britain - so the last thing we want having limited travel for Russian citizens e.g. by bans on flights, is to allow Russian agents to blend into thousands of innocent refugees from Ukraine. And this isn’t a ridiculous conspiracy theory on several counts:
1. Russia installed hundreds of Wagner group mercenaries in Ukraine up to a year before the conflict started
2. Russia has conducted assassinations in the Uk with radioactive substances and biological weapons
3. There’s no reason to think Putin wouldn’t be willing to assassinate our leading politicians in order to create a sense of panic in the Uk / destabilise law and order if he thought that would strengthen his hand.
We’ve also seen through recent terrorist offences that people will seek to claim they are from one country in order to gain entry to the UK only for it to turn out they are actually from somewhere else.
A completely new system to register applications from 200,000+ people will always have a lead time - it doesn’t stop Ukranians reaching the safety of Poland, France or anywhere else on the continent and also doesn’t mean we won’t give the sanctuary already promised.
On that front, I’ve been talking to neighbours about how we can organise to give visibility of spare rooms etc for Ukrainian families that need a home until their home is freed from Russian occupation. In our home we’ve agreed that we’ll move out of the main bedroom into a loft room if there’s a Ukrainian family that needs somewhere to stay - for as long as they need it.
If anyone knows of any groups that are registering places where Ukranians can stay when they arrive in the UK please add the information to this thread.
Jesus H Corbett ... where to even start with that load of old cobblers
This is already a massive issue with a significant number of Local Authorities already unable to take new arrivals due to the constant flow from Calais.
It isn't a 'constant flow' its a tiny amount of people in small boats. We could easily cope with it if there was even a modicum of a will to do it. There isn't. Just more demonisation
And this isn’t a ridiculous conspiracy theory on several counts:
Except that pretty much every word after that statement is tinfoil-helmeted nonsense
You are Priti Patel and I claim my session on your Dover wave machine
There’s no reason to think Putin wouldn’t be willing to assassinate our leading politicians in order to create a sense of panic in the Uk
I'd be genuinely fascinated to know which member of the current cabinet's loss could possibly engender a sense of panic in the populace.
It’s all very well calling for visa free entry to anyone who says they are from Ukraine but this creates a huge problem for Social Services and other government functions who have statutory duties
And whose fault is it that our services are over-stretched and under-funded? It's like deliberately doing a bad job of the housework so you don't get asked again. Sneaky, and in this case extremely callous.
There’s no reason to think Putin wouldn’t be willing to assassinate our leading politicians in order to create a sense of panic in the Uk / destabilise law and order if he thought that would strengthen his hand.
Does he want a list?
*I'm not serious*
I’d be genuinely fascinated to know which member of the current cabinet’s loss could possibly engender a sense of panic in the populace.
Only if the assassin was a particularly poor shot
In our home we’ve agreed that we’ll move out of the main bedroom into a loft room if there’s a Ukrainian family that needs somewhere to stay – for as long as they need it.
Well, there won’t be any unsponsored refugees for you to take in. It’s illegal. And you’ve listed all the excuses given to explain away why. And they are excuses. Some of those are very real issues that require government backed mitigations that you can be sure all the other governments of Europe are working on, and paying for. Stop excusing a government that is blocking refugees for their own political reasons.
Anyway… money, money, money…
https://bylinetimes.com/2022/03/07/economic-crime-bill-oligarch-loophole-uk/
^
So we should not help out our fellow humans in need, because of a theoretical risk of retaliation from a bully. No thanks, I’ll take my chances
On point 3….. given how useless they are, assassinating the Tory cabinet is unlikely to either help his war plans, or be particularly high up on putin’s agenda..
There's a lot of whataboutery around when we talk about offering sanctuary for Ukrainians fleeing war - "What about the drain on our economy", "what about the homeless" etc. We're the sixth wealthiest country on Earth, we can afford to offer sanctuary to Ukrainians, house the homeless and to uphold our obligations as signatory of the 1951 UN Refugee Convention. The fact that we do so little is because we choose not to at the highest level, not because the country cannot afford it.
I'm happy to lobby my MP to do more, I'm also happy to donate to humanitarian aid agencies working in Ukraine.
Given that he put so much effort into getting them into power, and given the services they're still happily providing to his friends, getting rid of any of this lot is the last thing on earth Putin would do.
The political leaders of every other nation on earth would be on the hit list before these useful idiots
Ireland - popn 5 million - has taken a few thousand; UK - popn nearer 70 million, has taken a couple of hundred despite the rhetoric. It's shameful.
There’s a lot of whataboutery around when we talk about offering sanctuary for Ukrainians fleeing war – “What about the drain on our economy”, “what about the homeless” etc.
The Daily Mash summarised this attitude perfectly a few years ago...
We need to look after our own first, say people who would never help anyone
Ireland – popn 5 million – has taken a few thousand; UK – popn nearer 70 million, has taken a couple of hundred despite the rhetoric. It’s shameful.
Yes, it is shameful. The sheer ****ery of it is that it's not incompetence on our part, but that it's intentional.
3. There’s no reason to think Putin wouldn’t be willing to assassinate our leading politicians in order to create a sense of
panicenormous relief in the Uk
FTFY
I find it amazing that a leader of an invaded country can address both the Houses of Parliament here and the seats of government elsewhere, from his bunker in Kyiv (or wherever he is). It’s incredible stuff.
In our home we’ve agreed that we’ll move out of the main bedroom into a loft room if there’s a Ukrainian family that needs somewhere to stay – for as long as they need it.
But you might end up with a Wagner mercenary.
It’s all very well calling for visa free entry to anyone who says they are from Ukraine but this creates a huge problem for Social Services and other government functions who have statutory duties e.g. child safeguarding / care of minors that do not have family etc etc.
Because hanging around Calais for weeks in the cold doesn't create any safeguarding issues of its own? Get them over here, then interview them and assess their needs in a warm room.
As for the 'assassination' angle, I hadn't noticed Putin's poisoners having a great deal of trouble getting into the country thus far. Why would they embed someone in Ukraine, then send them hitchhiking across Europe when they could use one of their teams which is already active in the UK. And probably getting invited to drinks parties with Tories already.
All the talking points which have been trotted out by our so-called government so far are just a smokescreen for their own incompetence and cynical pandering to little England bigots.
But you might end up with a Wagner mercenary.
He'll have to Lohengrin and bear it.
Presumably we can weed out the Wagner mercenaries by checking them for Waffen SS tats on their shoulders...
I find it amazing that a leader of an invaded country can address both the Houses of Parliament here and the seats of government elsewhere, from his bunker in Kyiv (or wherever he is). It’s incredible stuff.
I can’t be the only one who finds the sight of him being applauded by British MPs incredibly nauseating
They are doing absolutely nothing to help him or Ukraine and a lot them got where they are funded by dirty Russian money, not least the Prime Minister himself
As a spectacle, Boris Johnson’s speech afterwards, basking in the reflected glory, was absolutely sickening
Given that an estimated 1 million EU workers have left the UK due to Brexit, you’d think we’d be grateful for a few fruit and veg pickers, or some extra care workers?
I think that's what my local MP ( Kevin Foster) was proposing the other day when he said there were working visas available for seasonal workers. Understandably, it didn't go down too well. Another self serving, smug prick who fits well into that cabinet
Russia doesn't need to smuggle in operatives as ukrainian refugees. Why would they?
"we need to help our own people before we can help other people" is almost always code for "let's not help anyone". When has anyone ever said that, and then gone on to help our own people?
Have we done the story about a grandma downing a drone by throwing a jar of pickles at it yet?
If not, here's an objective, though no less funny analysis of the alleged event: