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Is it just me that looks at that video of the artillery destruction and thinks that is really good agricultural soil and some poor bugger will struggle to plough that ground for years to come. One thing is for sure, they won’t be planting it this season!
Probably just you.. I tend to notice the dead children's bodies in the street. 🙁
NATO will end up going in.. Its not a matter of if.. Its a matter of when..
I think it's still too early to say for sure, but there does seem to be a kind of inevitability about the whole thing, hey? The fact is that we are already involved, with sanctions and supplying arms. At some point we may even try to set up some kind of humaitarian corridor, or there's a border skirmish when the Russian forces reach further into western Ukraine, or Vlad's just plain crazy enough to launch a full blown attack on the rest of Europe using Ukraine as a staging ground (apparently it does have excellent stratgic value for this) and then we're sucked in. Oh man.
Is it just me that looks at that video of the artillery destruction and thinks that is really good agricultural soil and some poor bugger will struggle to plough that ground for years to come. One thing is for sure, they won’t be planting it this season!
And therein is another huge issue, the wheat harvest won’t be planted this year and that will have a huge impact with Ukraine out of the picture.
I keep being reminded of a SF novel I read years ago called The Moon Goddess and the Son by Donald Kingsbury, which looked into the Russian psyche and how to change the mindset of their leaders. It also included a Muslim MIT grad who designed UAVs which smashed Russian forces - Selçuk Bayraktar.
But the UK and the US are a vital part of NATO. As far as I'm aware the EU don"t have a united military force yet? I stand to be corrected on this. I agree that a tipping point will be reached soon, and I'm confident that our country will be at the forefront.
NATO will end up going in.. Its not a matter of if.. Its a matter of when.
What would change that makes them go in? If not after everything that has happened so far then what?
I sadly think that even if Putin uses chemical or nuclear weapons in Ukraine, NATO will remain on the sidelines. Putin appears so unhinged that the chance of him using Nuclear Weapons against NATO are not zero and NATO will not risk a Nuclear war.
I hope that if he does decide to use nuclear weapons they are as poor as the rest of his military (and don't leave the silo), or his orders are ignored.
Is it just me that looks at that video of the artillery destruction and thinks that is really good agricultural soil and some poor bugger will struggle to plough that ground for years to come. One thing is for sure, they won’t be planting it this season!
French farmers are still ploughing up about 900 tons of unexploded ordinance every year- from WW1, well over a 100 years ago now.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_harvest
NATO will end up going in.. Its not a matter of if.. Its a matter of when..
If Putin thinks he'll lose he can use any number of his 6,700 nukes. No one wins then.
UK gov is a **** joke.
When’s the revolution?
Putin out and his stooge Boris at the same time. Needs an uprising in both countries.
I wish I hadn’t watch the BBC news at ten.
I don’t feel able to comment on the sight of families fleeing and dying.
But I will say one thing… they are saying 1.5 million refugees have left Ukraine already… and we’ve accepted just 50?
50 ?!?
We actually filmed a bit about this when I used to work in TV- it was in Belgium, not France, but as we drove past the farms every field had a colection of shells at the roadside, waiting to be collected at the end of each week. This was in the mid 2000s, unbelievable.
wish I hadn’t watch the BBC news at ten.
I don’t feel able to comment on the sight of families fleeing and dying.
But I will say one thing… they are saying 1.5 million refugees have left Ukraine already… and we’ve accepted just 50?
Yep news at 10 had me crying, some shocking sights that really got to me. And then I lost it angrily when I saw Johnson's 6 point plan. More lies, all they can do is lie. The refugee response is just appalling
"using Ukraine as a staging ground (apparently it does have excellent stratgic value for this) and then we’re sucked in. Oh man"
South West? In the general direction of Serbia?
I can’t decide is Russia are just really inept at logistics and just can’t get the smart bombs to the aircraft or whether the reality is they are skint and there’s actually only half a dozen advanced munitions in Russia and they don’t want to use them. I can understand the ground forces being limited if they can’t get stuff to the frontline, but obviously the aircraft are flying out of Russia airstrips. The other worrying possibility is they just don’t GAF and why waste the fancy stuff when they can just chuck the old unaccurate stuff on buildings/civilians etc. but you’re right on that one – doesn’t take too may downed Sukois to make that look like a bad decision.
My best guess is they are saving the decent weapons/bombs for when we(NATO) get involved
The Su34 is really expensive and hard to replace, using them for this this sort of shitty nonsense is desperate stuff. This soon into a proper war, and the Russian Air Force is reduced to this? Already?
Yes, going beyond just this specific thing, Russian strategy and tactics just don't add up. They have a large air force that is formidable on paper, but they just don't seem to be using it. As someone on Twitter pointed out yesterday, they are only flying a few dozen sorties per day, but lost 5 aircraft yesterday. That points to a loss rate of 5% to 10%, which is unsustainable.
Same goes for the "convoy", which hasn't moved in days. One (serious) theory was that it was intended as a trap to tempt NATO into bombing it so that Putin has a foreign attack on Russia to rally the Russian people around. Crazy theory, but it's pretty clear that things are not going the way Russia planned and they seem to have a lot of equipment just sitting around not being used effectively.
Interview with 3 captured Russian Police Senior Officers.
Some balls on those three.
russian streaming TV services were apparently hacked by Annymous to display images of the non-war in ukraine
https://twitter.com/YourAnonTV/status/1500557635686486023
putin not taking it well
https://twitter.com/gsuberland/status/1500604658552905731
but putin been preparing for this eventuality
https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-disconnected-global-internet-tests-rbc-daily-2021-07-22/
And the Chinese are going to drive a hard bargain if Putin wants them to help him out.
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1498039977766236172
https://twitter.com/FPRI_Orbis/status/1500152772498534400
images like the one of the destroyed artillery unit
and this
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1500483390088302596
are just copium that we all need, because eventually we will see the horror of the bombing of ukrainian cities, that we know is happening and will probably only get worse
The story of those three policemen would seem to back up the idea that some Russian soldiers are sabotaging their own gear so they can stop fighting. The video of a destroyed Russian gun battery with no bodies in it might also back that up.
Interview with 3 captured Russian Police Senior Officers.
Very interesting – with subtitles
If (IF!) this is real, it is huge. I'll need to be convinced though- if nothing else how did they manage to set up a slick looking press conference when their dep. prime minister has to make do with sitting in front of a bunch of sand bags?! 🤔 I massively support Ukraine and really want this to be true but there is so much bull flying around (on both sides!) I'm very suspicious of everything until it's confirmed by a reliable source (pretty much the BBC right now..)
And the Chinese are going to drive a hard bargain if Putin wants them to help him out.
I thought Saddam denied having WMDs throughout? Or am I remembering that wrong?
South West? In the general direction of Serbia?
No, the whole of Europe. Ukraine's pretty massive
Looks like there is now ongoing talks about the US/ EU dropping the purchase of Russian oil.
That a huge step if it happens. It'll obviously "hurt" us but I'm struggling to find any even half reasonable reason it shouldn't happen.
Particularly after watching the news just now.
kimbers
Full Member
and this
Did they wash that before they pictured it? I'm calling bullshit on that yin tbh.
if nothing else how did they manage to set up a slick looking press conference when their dep. prime minister has to make do with sitting in front of a bunch of sand bags?!
It's a table and a logo board. Unian is a (the?) Ukranian news agency so pretty sure they'd have had one of those lying around ready to go.
The fairly rambling nature and the fact the claims are fairly down-to-earth make it seem plausible. We can all believe in incompetence, shit management, people being kept in the dark on the reasons for poor decisions, can't we? If it's fake, it's a very very good fake so kudos to the Ukranians for that too.
I thought Saddam denied having WMDs throughout? Or am I remembering that wrong?
I think he was a bit equivocal. Obviously he didn't want to say he had them as that would have legitimised the war. But proving he didn't have them would make an invasion much easier.
Why did we pick on him and not NK? One reason might be that NK definitely does have them! Same reason we are being cautious around Russia just now, if they didn't have them this would be a huge conventional war by now, like the first Gulf war but much bigger.
It’s a table and a logo board. Unian is a (the?) Ukranian news agency so pretty sure they’d have had one of those lying around ready to go.
I hope so. I really want it to be true!!
kimbers
Full Member
wow
That yin actually is interesting.
There bit pictured is actually only the bit of land outside Demydiv and the loch, but if you look at the blue lines it stretches all the way down to Irpin, which I would imagine would also be flooded, which is where a lot of heavy fighting is at the moment. So that does seem to have blocked of the northern approach at least.
[img] 
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I see they are saying tiktok are suspending live stream in Russia? Surely the last thing needed is social media to go offline in Russia? (unless the gov control it, but canny see that?) What's the story there, is everything else still up?
welshfarmers point about not planting those fields was a very valid one
https://www.ft.com/content/457ba29e-f29b-4677-b69e-a6e5b973cad6?shareType=nongift
Ukraine & Russia account for 1/3rd of the worlds wheat exports
and last time prices were this high it sparked global protests and the arab spring
I've an appointment in town tomorrow not far from the Russian consulate.
I'm stopping by the garden centre and buying some sunflower seeds to throw over the wall.
Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel
https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1499993561483419650
That's a pretty grim condemnation.
I've just watched this analysis. And admit to being wrong in my own analysis of the conflict and of the motives behind it, but I ask that I also have followed and been influenced by the proxy wars, not just of the late 20th century, but going back to the beginning of the 20th century, where we can account for tens of millions of deaths. Not just many hundreds of thousands, or a couple of million, but tens of millions of people like you and I, and that in itself can colour anyone perception of who is right and who is wrong.
But I feel that in light of current events, this position has changed.
It's a bit of a watch, nearly 2 hours, and the conclusion isn't promising for freedom to emerge unscathed. But I think there is light at the end of the tunnel, and the prospects of any world ending events are not as bleak as they initially appeared. Maybe the tabloids have much to answer for in that respect, but maybe that's something that should be seriously addressed in the future.
I don't think anyone can dispute what Dr. Frederick W. Kagan has to say.
I think maybe I can get some sleep now. Not just because it's ten past one in the morning, but because it's now easier on the mind.
I hope this guy's analysis is correct.
https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1500610891842146306
https://twitter.com/andreivkozyrev/status/1500611983065829377
As far as Saddam Hussein and WMDs go, the irony is that Saddam believed that Iraq had a secret WMD program running but his scientists were too scared to tell him that they couldn't make any progress due to sanctions. They kept filling out reports about the progress they were pretending to make. Saddam was smart enough to know that uncertainty was his best strategy. If he came out and openly revealed a program (in defiance of UN resolutions), then it would force the US to invade. By hinting at it, he kept Iran and other opponents unwilling to attack him.
It was also obvious that he could not use WMDs first, they are only useful as a doomsday weapon to deter attack. Once you use them, you've opened the door for your opponent to go nuclear on you. Same calculation applies to Putin - going nuclear would be a desperate last resort. Irony with Saddam was that he didn't think he was bluffing, he thought he was making real threats but he didn't actually have the WMDs he thought he had to back up the threats. After seeing how badly the Russian military equipment is faring, other countries must be wondering if his nuclear arsenal will be in similarly bad shape.
Aaaaand I've been banned from twitter.
Apparently saying the Jacob Rees Mogg is a next Tuesday of the highest order is speech.
@dyna-ti only skipped a few points thru but wow, peterson is a moron, kagan bloke seems clued up tbf
I don’t think anyone can dispute what Dr. Frederick W. Kagan has to say.
This is the war monger that ran around with a stiffy whilst influencing US policy before/during the Iraq war war?, I’ll pass thanks.
We are all pulling another late shift I see guys?
I'm well into a book about the zombie apologise and yet it is still a nice little escape from the crap going on in real life right now.
thols2
Free Member
It’s a bit of a watch, nearly 2 hoursnobody’s going to watch a two hour video on your recommendation.
I'm actually 40 minutes in, it's interesting stuff. Peterson is a bit of a plonker, his guest is interesting though, it's a historical discussion so far.
"No, the whole of Europe. Ukraine’s pretty massive"
Really?, sorry, couldn't resist. It just occurred to me that Serbia is probably Russia's biggest ally when they look West, that's all. What's in the way? Hungary and Romania. A corridor to that Adriatic cutting off Greece, like it was back in the day.
I know Yugoslavia had an arms length relationship with the USSR but Serbia now enjoys a better relationship with Russia. If his dream is to recreate some form of the Soviet Union then heading southwest would be an option and potentially an easier one than heading straight for Berlin..It would certainly fit the narrative.
Just a thought but I think we're headed for a protracted stalemate in Ukraine. Had he taken over in 3 days though, I'd be pretty nervous if I were in Romania, Hungary, North Macedonia etc.
You agree with him
Pretty much yeah. Certainly he has better credentials for talking about this type of thing than some random unknown on twitter.
I’d be pretty nervous if I were in Romania, Hungary, North Macedonia etc.
Possibly even further afield.
I think we’re headed for a protracted stalemate in Ukraine.
This seems as plausible as anything else.
https://twitter.com/Malinowski/status/1500634323938066436
Countries that have a good relationship with Russia that Putin has no intention of absorbing into greater Russia;
Serbia, Iran, Syria.
Putin would surely see any countries inbetween those three and Russia as a thorn in Russia's side and thinks they would be better either absorbed into the motherland or bought into line.
Perhaps we're to focused on the Baltic? As much as Putin has desires in that direction, that area is going to be so heavilly defended now.
Speculation on my part, not least because Russian military capability has been severely diminished and might need rebuilding and Ukraine is likely to keep him pretty busy for the foreseeable. He has just kicked off a non nuclear arms race.
But were talking about Putin here......
I really worry about the non nuclear arms race thing because Putin won't be able to keep up, which in turn makes his actions even more unpredictable.
And I'm sure some posters will jump on here and start talking about the military industrial complex but I won't be shutting them down, once that machine gets rolling there will be so many contracts to sign and so much money to be made that it will take on a momentum all of it's own.
Putin could switch the narrative away from NATO 'expansion' and posit the direct threat of massive and ever increasing quantities of arms being deployed on Russia's borders.
Stuck this together which is just a collation of the images from this site. Thought it was interesting.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
[img] 
[/img]
I really worry about the non nuclear arms race thing because Putin won’t be able to keep up, which in turn makes his actions even more unpredictable.
Russia's military is looking like a joke at the moment. It's quite possible that Georgia and other border countries with ongoing disputes will try to kick out the Russian occupying forces and join NATO, but I think the Russian weakness will generally convince NATO that they don't need Cold War levels of conventional arms to deter Russia.
What seems more likely to me is that, if Russia does collapse economically, the U.S. will reduce its military presence in Europe and focus more on Asia. China is looking a lot more of a conventional military threat than Russia is. Russia just does not have the economic capacity to build a high-tech military that could threaten NATO so their only hope is to partner up with China. China has the money and industrial capacity, Russia has the technology. Russia will be a junior partner in that which will be humiliating.
Edit. When I see stuff like this, I gotta wonder whether Russian troops aren't sabotaging their weapons because they don't want to murder Ukrainian civilians.
https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1500673932910907393
Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel
I'm surprised its anything at all. I was under the impression any military aid was not to be supplied by NATO, but countries that are in NATO can do so of their own accord?
You know I'm generally not that worried about Nuclear War now I've read a bit more. It does seem to me that the idea of the Nuclear apocalypse might be slightly overdone and thing of Hollywood.
Firstly there aren't the massive number of nukes these days. Most of the big ones have been replaced with 'smaller' 300-400kt size heads. The logic being that even a nuclear war is about capitulation and strategy. Why waste a nuke on a non-strategic target? No gains by just taking out civilians.
Maps of old showing massive clumsy 10mt bombs and the cities they might hit largely bear no connection to today.
The aim is to take out military targets not civilians. And the general understanding is that no one gains from complete Nuclear annihilation. And you have to get the support of your generals as a logical progression of war.
So I'm not saying it can't be bad, clearly but let's not let the Hollywood scenario take over.
Also the chap who created Nuke-map has a measured take.
Might help some be less anxious
https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1500660695804825603?t=8yPqke-oQbdamDZOfsV5Jg&s=19
"If you take every weapon in existence today, approximately 6500 megatons between 15,000 warheads with an average yield of 433 KT, [11] and put a single bomb in its own 100 square mile grid… one bomb per grid (10 miles x 10 miles), you will contain >95% of the destructive force of each bomb on average within the grid it is in. [12] This means the total landmass to receive a destructive force from all the world's nuclear bombs is an area of 1.5 million square miles. Not quite half of the United States and 1/38 of the world's total land mass…."
And that would assume every missle was launched and hit.
Again I'm not saying it's not bad it's just not necessarily the absolute destruction i'd been led to believe.
Frankly I'd rather be quickly vaporised by a direct hit than live with the aftermath of a nuclear war, so thanks for the analysis, bit it doesn't provide much comfort to me.
Russia’s military is looking like a joke at the moment.
I know what you meant - "joke" as in inept, incapable, badly managed - but IMHO, it's still very poor phrasing.
Not really a "joke" when there's innocent civilians being targeted and killed. Willing to bet that the refugees fleeing ruins are not sharing that thought...
Maybe it's just me but I think it's a poor choice of word.
It does appear that the main thrust of RF invasion seems to be the south - makes sense from many angles, logistics, 8 years of occupation, somewhat favourable local support, seems to be better lead, and still some amphibious support and obviously most of Ukraine's ports (and the export trade that use them) are here. It's going much better than the advance to Kyiv, which also makes some sense - There's lots of Russia social media traffic about talking Kyiv, It's the capital, political centre, will be defended strongly, and so on. Notwithstanding the overall crappy nature of RF forces, I think the advance to Kyiv is a secondary target for the Russians hence the unpreparedness of the RF troops there.
The UK government thinking anyone gives a shit about what the UK government has to offer. It’s nothing.
We made ourselves a very small fish in a big pond with brexit.
@mattyfez ah okay, makes sense now 🙂
I know what you meant – “joke” as in inept, incapable, badly managed – but IMHO, it’s still very poor phrasing.
Ok, "inept" is probably a better word.
The Russian stock market won't open until at least Wednesday now. Is this the longest a stock market has remained closed? Especially as, according to Putin, this is during 'peacetime'?!?
“If you take every weapon in existence today, approximately 6500 megatons between 15,000 warheads with an average yield of 433 KT, [11]
Yes, a mega-volcano has more explosive power than all the nuclear weapons combined. However, a full on nuclear war would lead to massive fires in every major urban area, plus millions of tonnes of irradiated soil being blown into the atmosphere. Large areas of the earth would be blanketed with clouds of toxic and radioactive smoke and dust.
Depositary receipts of the nation’s biggest lender, Sberbank of Russia PJSC, slumped 93% in London on Wednesday, while the state-run gas giant Gazprom PJSC fell 97%. Rosneft Oil Co. tumbled 70% and Lukoil PJSC declined 98%.
Quite satisfyingly, some of the larger Russian companies are also listed on the London stock exchange- and as above they have been wiped out. I had no idea it was this severe! No wonder Putin is looking desperate.
Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel
He's giving NATO political cover. Not sure the kind of military aid he's been receiving in the last few years, and during the conflict itself, is the type that gets filed through the official NATO procurement system.
He knows full well why NATO can't impose a no-fly. And criticising them publicly on this issue is probably exactly what they want right now.
Not quite half of the United States and 1/38 of the world’s total land mass
Now work out what proportion of the world's population lives in this area, presuming it is focussed on the most densely populated areas.
Hint: it's not 1/38th.
Amazingly I'm finding it hard to find more articles on the Russian stock market, seeing as it is the thing that is most likely to depose Putin
Says the only assistance Ukraine received so far through NATO procurement system is 50 tons of diesel
He’s giving NATO political cover. Not sure the kind of military aid he’s been receiving in the last few years, and during the conflict itself, is the type that gets filed through the official NATO procurement system.
He knows full well why NATO can’t impose a no-fly. And criticising them publicly on this issue is probably exactly what they want right now.
Exactly. Please move on Mr Putin, nothing to nuke here ...
Amazingly I’m finding it hard to find more articles on the Russian stock market
Be interesting to see how much exposure there is from our own pension funds. Sberbank can't have seemed like a rock-solid place to stick people's hard-earned, but I'm sure some fund managers will have been tempted.
What is Sberbank?
Big Russian bank with a very small stock price now, comrade. Just an example of a stock which 'might' find its way into a fund.
EG:
Hopefully local government pension funds have learned something from the Iceland fiasco.
Roman Motychak
@motytchak
·
Mar 1, 2022
dear Western journalists...there is a crucial distinction, guys, between the left map and the right map.
russians move by big roads, hence it is just misleading to deem all the territory between those roads as russian.
it is not.
it is where the civilians fight them.
Yeah I get what occupied territory is, ideas that all the russians control or that all they've done is drive up a couple of roads is overly optimistic. And it's not misleading, Russia will effectively control supplies in behind frontlines. It's also obvious the map is too small to show encircled, towns, villages and cities.
Anyhow, on those maps in particular what we want to see is bits turning blue, ukrainian counter offenses.
martinhutch
Full MemberHe’s giving NATO political cover. Not sure the kind of military aid he’s been receiving in the last few years, and during the conflict itself, is the type that gets filed through the official NATO procurement system.
He knows full well why NATO can’t impose a no-fly. And criticising them publicly on this issue is probably exactly what they want right now.
Hope so.
Good (if depressing) thread here
while russia struggles in the North they are doing much better in the South as they are better supported by sea and from crimea and capturing Ukraines ports will gullotine the Ukranian economy
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1500637716601458688
‘kin hell
I thought that was some random's YouTube until the end, it's ITV news.
all the talk of increasing arms spending, I for one seriously hope billions are being invested into a strategic counter to nukes.
I dont know something like a giant spider man web splat that glues silo doors shut or a way of confusing them and diverting them off into space to explode harmless
that's what we all really need a way of basically making nukes irrelevant. then maybe we can just dukes out wars in an arena with robots fighting each other or something....
A pair of B-52 Stratofortress took off from the UK, and are now over Germany heading East.
Anyhow, on those maps in particular what we want to see is bits turning blue, ukrainian counter offenses.
Obviously, pushing them back from the cities would be a major objective for the Ukrainians. However, this article from last November pretty much predicted the logistic problem that Russia is having now.
FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI
Having the Russians extended out more than 50 miles from railheads starts to strain their truck fleet. Take that out to 150 miles and each truck can only make return journey per day on good roads. One volley of rockets takes one truckload, so resupplying the rocket artillery is unsustainable if there are Ukrainian snipers and Javelin squads lurking the countryside taking potshots. I don't think the Ukrainians will be in any hurry to follow the Jon Snow doctrine of rushing out into the open for a big set piece battle.
I actually hate those quote memes^^ but this one seems particularly relevant
A pair of B-52 Stratofortress took off from the UK, and are now over Germany heading East.
They do that most / every day. See the ‘increase in military flights thread’
‘kin hell
And trying to position himself as the 'leader' of the western efforts to defeat Putin is exactly what a Russian asset would do, or what someone desperately trying to create deniability would do, anyway.
I don’t think the Ukrainians will be in any hurry to follow the Jon Snow doctrine of rushing out into the open for a big set piece battle.
Didn't know Channel 4 news was so aggressive.