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Russian oil price now $35 a barrel (below the cost of production)! They’re now importing petrol instead of exporting it, because of the destruction of their oil refineries. Putin remains a tactical genius 😉
Why can't other socio-political threads be more like this one. Informative with minimal friction.
Russia chancing their arm, again.
This lack of movement on their basic demands led to President Trump refusing to meet President Putin in Hungary last month.
This "peace plan" seems to be a move by Russia to once again push their agenda and demands by leaking their proposals.
If that fails then they've pushed a ceasefire a bit further down the road because everyone in the "west" is firefighting the announcement and Russia doesn't want a ceasefire.
This piece was published by the Kyiv Post this morning, the full article is worth reading,
"But in Washington, the more immediate question is who, exactly, is steering the administration’s diplomacy.
On one track sits the traditional foreign-policy team, anchored by acting National Security Advisor and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Their message has been deliberately cautious: drafts exist, but no official plan has been formally announced, and any eventual agreement must emerge from a multilateral process that protects both Ukrainian, Russian, and US interests.""Enter the second track – the unofficial, fast-moving channel led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.
Sources close to Witkoff not only confirmed that a full plan exists, but that it has already been delivered to both Kyiv and Moscow – even arguing that Witkoff has spent the past month quietly collecting views from both capitals.
They also accused Moscow of leaking its preferred version to shape the narrative – a claim that only sharpened questions about who is actually driving US policy.""“They took the same wish list Rubio shut down and found someone else in Washington willing to run with it,” the source claimed." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64660
The Witkoff/leak part refers to the proposals that were turned down by Rubio pre-Hungary, which led to the collapse of the talks between Presidents Putin and Trump.
Russia then proposed something similar to Witkoff, knowing that he'd just accept it and pass it up the chain. Russia then leaked that the proposals had been "accepted". There's more on this below (and no tittering at the back over Witkoff's nickname)
"Steve Witkoff appears to have fired off a private message publicly, mistakenly outing a story’s source in the process.
In a since-deleted reply post on X, the Trump envoy suggested that the reporting for a much-discussed Axios article about peace in Ukraine must have come from someone known as “K.”“He must have got this from K,” President Trump’s top negotiator wrote on Wednesday, apparently unaware he was tweeting rather than DMing."
"Journalist Michael Weiss promptly highlighted the blunder, posting a screenshot and noting, “Almost certainly this refers to Kirill Dmitriev, who is quoted in the story. But it seems the Russian side is leaking this for a reason. Also seems Dim Philby doesn’t know how Twitter works, but is nonetheless confident of his ability to end the war.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-envoy-mistakenly-blows-sources-cover-in-dm-fail/
The only real news to come from this is that the WH is considering various proposals and will push hard for peace once something acceptable has been parsed out of the discussions.
BBC reporting today.
Words fail me on how DJT is prepared to pull the rug / sell out Ukraine and reward russia who is clearly the aggressor. Katja Kallas who is also in the BBC article has seen it all before however....
More questions than answers again:
Ukraine rejects it, will the US end supplying weapons and support?
Can a European alliance provide support without the US
Can Zelensky talk Trump round ?
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o
As part of its 20th sanction package proposals the EU will ask the "flag" countries for permission to board shadow fleet ships and will also ask them to deregister sanctioned shipping. This will affect insurance amongst other issues, meaning that states can exclude shadow fleet vessels from their waters and ports.
• EU seeks flag state permission to board shadow fleet vessels
• Ministers consider more regular ‘automated’ additions to EU sanctions lists
• States increasingly targeting third-country flag authorities as a route to add pressure on Russia shadow fleet
LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A billion-dollar money laundering network that operated across Britain* bought a controlling stake in a Kyrgyzstani bank to facilitate sanctions evasion and support Russia's war in Ukraine, Britain's National Crime Agency said on Friday.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/money-laundering-networks-lead-britain-russia-uk-says-2025-11-21/
*not only Britain, but includes "U.S., France, Spain and Ireland"
Hopefully serious jail time for those found guilty.
Ok, this peace plan.
On the one hand, Ukraine is not allowed to join NATO. On the other, the US promises a military response if Russia re-invades Ukraine.
Isn't this an obvious contradiction? If the US genuinely intends to honour the agreement to assist Ukraine, why wouldn't NATO membership just be allowed?
Surely this kind of hole in the agreement makes it obviously unserious?
The whole thing looks like it was written by a teenager
On the other, the US promises a military response if Russia re-invades Ukraine.
Does anyone actually trust the US any more ?
Trump, what a piece of sh*t. It's a near total sellout of Ukraine.
I hope Air Force flies up a huge alien anus whilst he's aboard.
He deserves to be a human laxative.
Well I guess this means Europe has to step up support and that means my taxes and yours. I'm in, are you?
Yet again,Putin's plaything delivers.
The best Russian asset..Eva
A loud pig of a human,trying to hide his turds with gold.
Well I guess this means Europe has to step up support and that means my taxes and yours. I'm in, are you?
Absolutely. The alternative is that all countries are potentially on their own if the proverbial hit the fan.
It's a terrible thing to see how NATO showed strength and solidarity only 12mths ago, and since the toxic oange turd has been on scene it's just fallen apart.
From what I have read USA are demanding Ukraine accept everything by next Thursday. As others have noted, it's all but a surrender for Ukraine that gives Russia practically everything it wanted, and also gives USA control of reconstructing Ukraine with also an additional guarantee of 50% of any profits they can't hide. Also it expects EU to throw €100 billion of their own money in too for USA to rob.
Someone described Trumps administration like 'joyriders', and that does seem apt: unskilled, reckless, ignoring rules and risks. They speed ahead without any regard for innocent people, creating chaos that can only end in an inevitable crash.
I'm not sure what else is needed to confirm that Trump is a Russian asset (if not directly then being exploited by compromising material). This isn't just a surrender to Russia; it's dividing Ukraine between Russia and the USA and has no guarantee of future security. It even returns Russia to the global table.
And bloody Starmer can't even criticise it. We don't need the USA, especially now they've taken to their isolationist policies, and should treat them in the same way we treat Russia: as a pariah. I'd be very willing to bet that in the event we ever need to use Trident weapons they won't fire without a US authorisation, so they effectively control our nuclear deterrent as well.
Waiting for politecameraaction to come along and tell me how Russia is actually a lovely friendly welcoming non-war-mongering democracy.
TLDR: Never in my most feverish nightmares did I expect this "peace plan" to be serious. None of this makes sense with President Trump’s recent pronouncements that peace should begin at the current front line, his application of sanctions on Russian energy, the authorisation of long-range US ATACMS strikes inside Russia, the resurrection of the Lindsay Graham's sanctions bill, etc.
The leverage against Russia is with Trump, e.g. Bloomberg reported that larger Indian oil refiners will refuse almost all Russian oil with imports becoming almost impossible under those sanctions
STW-ers have picked up on most of the dots and joined them correctly but the thick, fat Sharpie of life has suddenly lurched across the page.
VP JD Vance figures prominently in the "peace plan" process and is capable of sidelining US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, while whispering in Trump's ear about issues that would appeal to an artist of the deal.
Trump is aiming for a deal by Thanksgiving, next Thursday, with extensions if negotiations are "going well". This fits nicely with Nobel Peace Prize nominations closing on 31st January.
*************
The plan is clearly Trump-esque with land rental deals and US business opportunities enshrined and would be seen as a great package by him.
Russia (publicly, at least) has rejected the plan because it doesn't go far enough on sanctions relief, the size of Ukraine's military and borders, while it's gone too far on territory rental, reparations, etc. Russia would prefer to fight on
"Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands. Putin and other prominent Russian officials continue to reiterate publicly that Russia will achieve its war goals militarily. Putin reiterated on November 21 that Russia is open to achieving peace through diplomatic means but that Russia is “happy” to continue pursuing its war goals militarily."
"Other Russian officials are signaling more directly to the Russian populace that the 28-point peace deal is unacceptable for Russia. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairperson Andrei Kartapolov stated that a peace plan is not in Russia’s interests, given Russian advances in Ukraine, and claimed that Russia cannot trust the West to uphold the terms of the peace deal, including the point that NATO would not expand."
"Russian ultranationalist milbloggers also criticized the peace proposal as unsustainable and claimed that such a deal would lead to further confrontation in the future. The milbloggers broadly expressed support for continuing the war and claimed that the proposal does not benefit Russia and contains some unacceptable stipulations that must change."
"The Kremlin likely seeks to divide Ukraine from the United States such that Russia can continue its war against Ukraine without US and Western support and backing."
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2025/
The plan appears to have been pushed through at a point when Ukraine is perceived to be at its weakest
The Trump administration believes the moment to pressure Ukraine into a peace agreement is at hand, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy particularly weak at home and plagued by a corruption scandal that poses the most direct threat to his leadership since Russia invaded in 2022.
“The Ukrainians will have to accept [the deal] given the weakness of Zelenskyy’s current position,” said a senior White House official, who, like others, in the story, was granted anonymity to discuss the negotiations. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/21/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-00665416
while this extreme pressure and side-lining of leading members of the administration appears to have back-fired in Congress
The pressure campaign has united critics across the political spectrum, creating a rare moment of bipartisan alarm over the White House’s strategy to force an end to the war.
It is a rare moment when voices from Capitol Hill, foreign-policy veterans, European capitals, and Ukrainian civil society align so neatly – and when all of them, in some form, warn that Washington is careening toward a diplomatic dead end.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64750"There was no coordination, no one at State had seen this, not Rubio," another U.S. official said. The official added that the plan contains material that the secretary of state had previously rejected. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-officials-meeting-with-russian-miami-spurs-questions-about-latest-ukraine-2025-11-22/
In April 2024 JD Vance argued for conditions that echo this plan. He also accused Ukraine in February's WH ambush that it was leading "propaganda tours" of Russian destruction
In a New York Times op-ed released in April 2024, Vance argued that America shouldn’t help Ukraine, citing the burden of producing weapon systems like 155 mm shells and Patriot missiles. He suggested that the U.S. should pressure Ukraine to surrender territory it has lost to Russia and claimed that supporting Ukraine “doesn’t add up.”
https://kyivindependent.com/come-to-bucha-jd-vance/
He's said that everyone else misunderstands the current plan
US Vice President JD Vance, who is deemed to be leading the US effort alongside Driscoll, framed the administration’s approach in a Friday night tweet.
He emphasized that any peace plan must halt the fighting while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty, be acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow, and minimize the risk of renewed conflict.
“Every criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground,” Vance wrote, adding that peace “might be made by smart people living in the real world.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/64751
Who gains from a US led into political isolation from Ukraine, Europe and NATO? It doesn't seem to be shaping up well for Trump so far
Two things struck me, more about the timing, (and I do't know if they've been mentioned before) one- yet another Epstein distraction? and two- Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are starting to have a real impact in Russia, particulary with the public. Is this a possible sign of weakness in Putin, and he's called his mate/asset and given him the green light?
Thanks @timba, its not an understatement when I say that I rely on your posts for updates. Often more concise and informative than the mainstream news.
Thanks Timba
I’m hoping Zelenskyy does something radical such as putting the peace plan to the Ukrainian people in a plebiscite and letting them decide.
Blimey, even the Nicotine-stained man-frog has opposed the latest "deal"...
Farage: Trump’s Ukraine deal ‘not acceptable’
Neither zylinsky or Putin has agreed the deal.
Neither zylinsky or Putin has agreed the deal.
Trumps deadline threat only applies to Ukraine though..
Shame on USA for allowing Trump to be doing what he is. I don't think any countries will trust the USA again in my lifetime.
It doesn't seem to be shaping up well for Trump so far
not sure he sees it that way, he'll get his press release labelled 'peace deal' and a bunch of personal enrichment opportunities. By the time it inevitably unravels he'll be long gone
not sure he sees it that way, he'll get his press release labelled 'peace deal' and a bunch of personal enrichment opportunities. By the time it inevitably unravels he'll be long gone
How' s his Israel deal looking?
Shame on USA for allowing Trump to be doing what he is. I don't think any countries will trust the USA again in my lifetime.
Same.
We met two Californians the week we were on hol in S Fife. They were in equal parts utterly ashamed of, and appalled by, what their compatriots had done. And that was back in July when we chatted. It'd be very interesting to talk to them again now.
I can't find it now but I think I saw a report suggesting that a Republican has tabled a motion to hit Russia, and more importantly, countries still doing business with Russia, with sweeping sanctions and sanctions.
Sounds like his "peace" plan doesn't have as much support in his party as he likes to pretend.
Not googled it but isn't that Lindsey Graham. Bit of an old style right wing republican but from the Reganite wing rather than MAGA.
It increasingly looks like this car crash of a "peace plan" is going nowhere. Seemingly Rubio admitted to a load of senators in private that it wasn't a US plan, but a wish list passed by the Russians (Kiril probably) and rebadged without change as a US "peace plan". Rubio has since denied that, but bun fighting over it in Washington, Europeans pushing back and even the Russians saying it is a no go mean it won't fly. As it in effect called for a complete capitulation by Ukraine, Zelensky could never have accepted it either.
I didn't think I could despise the current US administration any more, but they have truly plumbed the depths with this pro-Russian stitch up.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but, we may see Trumps fall happen very quickly and spectacularly. We are hearing more dissent, and hinting at the same concerns of Russian influence, coming from Republican voices.
MTG, one of the most hateful of the MAGA cult has accused Trump out loud of being on the side of money and also slipped in foreign leaders .. did she mean Russia?
"If I am cast aside by MAGA Inc and replaced by Neocons, Big Pharma, Big Tech, Military Industrial War Complex, foreign leaders, and the elite donor class that can't even relate to real Americans, then many common Americans have been cast aside and replaced as well.There is no ‘plan to save the world’ or insane 4D chess game being played."
I'll continue to wish USA remove Trump asap, and make an example of him. Nathan Gill I suspect was just a very low level Russian mouth piece - Trump appears to be their top asset. Hopefully Trump faces a similar downfall which takes every cent of the Trump family fortune as warning to any others considering following the same path.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but, we may see Trumps fall happen very quickly and spectacularly.
Yeah, wishful thinking I'm afraid. Trump has high approval ratings compared with most European leaders, and the folks electing him don't give that much of a crap about Ukraine. Or Gaza. Or anywhere else beyond their back yard.
Yeah, wishful thinking I'm afraid. Trump has high approval ratings compared with most European leaders, and the folks electing him don't give that much of a crap about Ukraine. Or Gaza. Or anywhere else beyond their back yard.
I don't claim to know much of USA politics, and hoping again USA politics and approval ratings aren't the same as UK/European.
However from what I read Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his 2nd term at the moment, and his 2nd term has been the lowest of any modern day presidents. With mid terms a year away and Trump alienating his base more each day/week, and his policies causing nothing but chaos .. I'm hoping (again!) there will be Republicans concerned enough to know that Trump will likely make them redundant for life if they continue to sit back.
With mid terms a year away and Trump alienating his base more each day/week, and his policies causing nothing but chaos .. I'm hoping (again!) there will be Republicans concerned enough to know that Trump will likely make them redundant for life if they continue to sit back.
I think that many Republicans are trying to find a way to come out of this on the right side of history - too little, too late, like MTG, but the mood among the less insane majority (all things being relative) seems to be changing. Some for their own personal ambitions, and some, maybe, have realised that this time around he is unchecked, more chaotic, more dangerous, and a genuine risk to the US and wider world.
I wonder if there is less desire to invoke the 25th simply because they feel that with Vance as next in line, it might be frying pan and fire. But if the Dems take charge after the midterms, could they impeach Trump and Vance together - two cheeks of the same arse? Not sure how their weird system operates
But if the Dems take charge after the midterms, could they impeach Trump and Vance together
I never saw such wild optimism as here on this thread 🙂
I never saw such wild optimism as here on this thread 🙂
I get it😑
But it's like the educated man relying on the absurdity of religion to right a wrong. Or going off a cliff edge and hopelessly clutching at a blade of grass to save yourself .. sometimes wild optimism is all we got.
something's happening in Switzerland.
What's happening in Switzerland is Russia says "The European plan, at first glance... is completely unconstructive and does not work for us."
Good.
What's happening in Switzerland is Russia says "The European plan, at first glance... is completely unconstructive and does not work for us."
Good.
It's clear that the "tweaked" WH plan will come to nothing this week, despite Karoline Leavitt saying, “The President wants to see this deal come together, and to see this war end..."
"He wants to see this deal come together as quickly as possible.”
Despite this, he's reportedly jetted off to Florida for the rest of the week (all widely reported).
I'd go so far as to say that nothing will come of any plan because Russia isn't currently interested in negotiation on anything less than its hardy perennial demands.
In Steve Rosenberg's Youtube channel, "Steve's Reading Russia" from yesterday (24th Nov), it's apparent that Russian media is already setting up for failure of the plan,
AI generated content from Youtube,
"What's interesting is that in the papers here this morning, there seems to be a lot of skepticism in Russia that this round of diplomacy is actually going to bring results, plus a lot of fingerpointing at Kiev and at Europe.""Riske gazeda (sic) takes aim at London, Paris, and Berlin. The negative reactions to Trump's plan coming from Britain, France, and Germany leave no doubt that these are the countries heading the undeclared war against Russia. This is why they aren't just requesting, they're demanding that they must take part in the discussions on a peace deal with Moscow."
"Commerce (sic) Kiev's European allies are trying to add corrections to Trump's Ukraine plan that would make it unacceptable to Moscow."
The MO of the plan is similar to previous Trump peace plans, e.g. Islamic State/Afghanistan and Israel/Gaza, in that the weaker party has a disproportionately reduced agency and gives up its weapons.
It also includes points specifically designed to appeal to Trump such as 50% profits from frozen Russian assets in EU financial institutions and is "authored" by business people, which means that it's open to interpretation and conspicuously free of the annoying binding safeguards for Ukraine that seasoned diplomats would include.
Despite it being a very obvious Russian diplomatic trap, the WH cannot resist jumping in to fulfill Russia's aims.
It's clear that one aim is to split the "west" by promoting the idea that Europe's "bad plan" will interfere with President Trump's desire for a quick peace, presenting Ukraine and Europe as the blockers, thus moving the US away from Europe.
The flip side of this is that Europe will move away from the US on the grounds that the US isn't reliable and too prone to unforeseeable actions.
The US and Russia have agreed Ukraine's exclusion from NATO and its inclusion in the EU, which are issues that have little or nothing to do with the US. It actually talks about NATO expansion and US mediation in discussions between NATO and Russia
They are one of thirty-two member countries who get to vote on Ukraine's inclusion (or not) in NATO, and have no vote on inclusion in the EU.
This is guaranteed to create a chasm between the US, NATO and the EU, which is another aim.
Russia is making the most of splitting EU and NATO allies with PMs Fico of Slovakia and Orban of Hungary unsurprisingly supporting the US plan. Orban is still promoting his world leader status before April's election by organising a peace summit in Budapest.
Fico also believes that the current proposal is worse for Ukraine than the plan discussed in 2022, but he still sees it as a chance for an immediate ceasefire on both sides of the front.
In Hungary, which is friendly toward Russia, the US peace plan is also supported. The country’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, stated recently that the publication of the plan’s 28 points initiates important processes that will eventually lead to organizing a peace summit in Budapest. https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/fico-says-slovakia-supports-us-peace-plan-1763784813.html
Russia outwardly believes that it can achieve military victory and gain far more by pursuing that than through peace. This plan is just another Russian play to maintain the appearance of negotiating so that they don't trigger further US sanctions and the supply of further US weapon systems to Ukraine. In that respect it's like several previous plans including Alaska and the cancelled summit in Hungary.
Other states will be watching closely for signals on potential future conflict with neighbours, judged on the reaction of the US to Russia's obvious disinformation and can-kicking.
It really is a very important process to get right and the US is failing ATM
Worth reading in full IMHO
OPINION: Brick by Brick, Dull As Drones, Ugly Americans in Kyiv
Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine:
The “peace initiative”
The front: Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, Lyman, and Zaporizhzhia
NATO training: Yeah, it will be easier if we train without those Ukrainian drones
Soapbox advice for NATO
Some talk the talk, others blow up real drones in a real war
Welcome to the Russian world, or, This won’t make friends
Russia bombards Ukraine
Ukraine bombards Russia
Ukrainian Air Force stuff – Rafales and F-16s
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/64982
Recordings of Steve Witkoff have been released where he's advising Russian representatives on how best to get President Trump's attention.
Predictably denied as fake, but who knows?
According to reports on Tuesday, the US Special Envoy to Ukraine Steve Witkoff advised Russian officials on how to prepare a peace deal on Ukraine to President Donald Trump that would get the Oval Office’s attention, even if the terms were unfavorable to Kyiv.
An audio recording of his dealings with Kremlin top brass, reported by Bloomberg, revealed that Witkoff, a close friend of Trump and, like him, a wheeling-and dealing New York property developer, met with Kirill Dmitriev, an economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Florida weeks ago to discuss and begin drafting an agreement that would prioritize Russian interests.
Everything solid that Russia produces in bulk must be transported by rail, whether that be coal, steel, military and agricultural product, etc.
As the largest commercial employer, it also employs in bulk.
The largest country in the world has a limited coastline and relies on railways; it will be a huge problem if they collapse,
Exclusive: Russia weighs how to prop up Russian Railways which is $51 billion in debt, sources say
By Gleb Stolyarov November 25
- Government discussed Russian Railways – sources
- Russian Railways debt is 4 trillion roubles – sources
- Russia considering different options to help Russian Railways
What I dint get it is who leaked taht recording?
Americans sympathetic to Ukraine trying to block Trump selling them down the river or Russians trying to derail any sort of peace process
Either way it paints Witkoff as completely in the Kremlins corner