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It's very unlikely USA would even give consideration to go to Taiwans defence now.
The USAs love of / need for semiconductors might suggest otherwise..
There's been a subtle change in US messaging in support of Taiwan as of a week ago, "we do not support Taiwan independence" has been removed from a US State Dept factsheet and China is not happy.
Taiwan has thanked the US for "positive, Taiwan-friendly wordings".
It might be coincidental, but it might be deliberately timed to send the message that China shouldn't read too much into whatever transpires with Ukraine
It was only briefly reported yesterday as Trump sucks the air out of everything else, but Zelensky was in Türkiye yesterday, and Erdogan has fully backed Ukrainian territorial integrity. Turkiye also controls access to the Black Sea, and is a NATO member.
(President Putin) needs something he can call a win.
He's already got that. Russia is exclusively at the top table with the most powerful nation in the world, with concessions and support for their membership of the (newly-formed) G8 from President Trump, "I’d love to have them back. I think it was a mistake to throw them out."
The Russian papers have been loving the events of this week and, as early as Monday, Steve Rosenberg reported on his Youtube Reading Russia, "One Russian newspaper today sums up how Moscow views events of the last few days: “Dumbfounded Europe, kneed by America just below the belt, is still struggling to get its breath back.” "
Putin is playing trump like a violin
He isn't the only one, both inside and outside the US
The thing I find really troubling about this is how bizarrely credible Trump's position is.
Suppose he did make a deal with Putin, offer it to Ukraine, Ukraine declines, Trump throws toys out of the pram and withdraws all support for Ukraine and also lifts all sanctions on Russia. What would Europe realistically be able to do about it? Make friends with China? Trump could get in there first and tie China in to falling in line with Trump and Russia.
Sure, it might set the world towards devastation in a decade but it would look like a win for the USA in the near term.
Europe is actually in an incredibly weak position as I see it. It requires a strong strategy and tight unity, so major elections happening right now don't help.
There was the suggestion in Trump’s last term that he’d been compromised by the Russians. He had that (highly unusual) one on one meeting with Putin, which, by some accounts, he was highly flustered about for quite some time when he came out.
A friend of mine has this theory that it's all about China: Trump doesn't care about Ukraine he just wants to get on Russia's good side so they'll gang up with him against China.
There was the suggestion in Trump’s last term that he’d been compromised by the Russians.
Whilst in some ways I think it makes sense it does have one real flaw.
The maga lot have demonstrated that they couldnt care less about anything he does and he can now grift as much cash as he needs. So what could they have on him which would compromise him?
The E Jean Carroll case didn't make much of an impact. Unless the Russians have some "woke" or "trans rights" stuff on him can't see what they're likely to have that'll make much difference.
There was the suggestion in Trump’s last term that he’d been compromised by the Russians.
Whilst in some ways I think it makes sense it does have one real flaw.
The maga lot have demonstrated that they couldnt care less about anything he does and he can now grift as much cash as he needs. So what could they have on him which would compromise him?
The pee tapes?
Putin is playing trump like a violin
Violins are complicated to play and can produce a tune.
Trump is more like a kazoo, or a whoopee cushion.
The tide is slowly turning, in the Pokrovsk area, Ukraine is beginning to retake territory. Russia looks to have culminated.
The West's propaganda has been saying this for years "Ukraine gains ground in [insert village name here] ***cough* in other news Russia made huge advances on the other 95% of the front" or "Ukaine inflicts heavy losses on Russian forces *cough **** as they retreat out of [town name]" When exactly is that spring offensive due again?
The last time there was a delay in getting US weapons to Ukraine, Russia made big advances. If the same happens again, then the same will happen again.
At this point Russia isn't going to lose*. The options for Ukraine are either take a shitty American deal, or fight and lose anyway but with more dead Ukrainians. History is littered with heroes who would tell others to fight on to the death because it's the right thing to do, but:
My friend, you would not tell with such high zest
To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old Lie: Dulce et decorum est
-Wilfred Owen
*unless something drastic happens like large numbers of European boots on the ground or China stepping in which IMO seems unlikely, there's nothing in it for them.
yeah - Russias doing so well it using DONKEYS on the front line, FFS ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
yeah - Russias doing so well it using DONKEYS on the front line, FFS ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
We're loosing, hey look a squirrel donkey
We sit here and watch an FPV drone piloted into a Russian Tanks weak spot, then scroll past the news of Russia launching 200 drones to the bit where Ukraine shoots 50 of them down.
I get it, I'd dearly love Ukraine to come out of this on top.
We might not have state propaganda like Russia, but our capitalist news outlets know what people want to hear, and it's that we are winning.
Pokrovsk was mentioned, does the map objectively look like Ukraine has the long term momentum in this war, especially if it no longer had US military support?
So either:
A) Russia is doing better than we would all like to admit and we're clutching at straws for good news.
B) Russia is beating the combined military assistance of the West with it's Strategic Donkey Reserves*
*my new band name
Looks like Zelenskyy has got to Trump with the 'disinformation bubble' comment. Trump is fuming about it on his platform, so the news tells me. Feels like it could be a thing that precipitates a failure of a deal, or push the US toward a deal too unpalatable for Europe to accept.
I still don't get why Trump and crew don't understand that the way they are implementing 'America First', might well mean they lose strategic influence in Europe. There's such a dissonance at play around them trying to dictate terms of peace in Europe, while simultaneously saying they want to pull away. They are so focussed on this warped perception of what Europe owes them, when they haven't grasped what they have gained from decades of strategic influence. It feels like they will ultimately lose out from pulling away from Europe...
With Trumps comments/behaviour I am really curious as to what Putin has over Trump.
Plus that map does not include the invasion of Russia , or the area currently being held. Or the fact that Russia is fast running out of servicable front line vehicles. Yes , they still have hundreds , but these are from the 60's and have been sat outside in a field for 40 years . They probably havent been started or moved this millenium. I somehow doubt they were put away with the bores flooded with engine oil on the off chance they might be needed in the distant future . Bet they could cobble together 1 from 10 by canabalising various bits of engine and driveline. However , working on old, frozen, rusty vehicles is very labour intensive, slow and time consuming. Every single bolt will probably need a blowtorch and a 1400Ft/lb Millwalkee impact wrench which probably dont even exist in Russia
Pokrovsk was mentioned, does the map objectively look like Ukraine has the long term momentum in this war, especially if it no longer had US military support?
No, but also that's two snapshots in time. Russia has advanced further, and been pushed back. But there's no doubt that ultimately Russia has shut the area down, and damaged Ukraine's ability as regard fuel, steel and transport. Russia slowly breaking Ukraine down under force isn't really disputed. The cost and means of doing so doesn't look sustainable forever. So, it all depends on what you mean by "long term". Russia can't be beaten at speed by Ukraine, only held back, or slowed down, or weakened by attrition. And only if supported by allies. This is true for many other countries as well. Russia can only be held back by the solidarity of other states.
Plus that map does not include the invasion of Russia , or the area currently being held.
That bit in the north that you have to squint a bit to see?
This is exactly what I mean, we're so blinkered by the tidbits of good news that we're blinkered to the bigger picture.
And only if supported by allies.
And that's the key thing, it effectively no longer has that.
The US isn't going to keep supplying weapons.
Europe was never going to commit troops to Ukraine.
Wow - so Russia move forward in a small section of the 1000km frontline by 40k IN A WHOLE YEAR - and this is your idea of winning ?? Pokrovsk was mentioned as it has been the main thrust of the Russian effort - they’ve spent a year, not taken it and lost countless lives and equipment. And now Russia is beginning to loose territory in the Pokrovsk campaign.
The only way Putin wins this is by Trump handing it to him on a plate.
Talking of the mandarin Mussolini- he’s just said in the White House that Ukraine started this war. Words fail me.
"This is exactly what I mean, we're so blinkered by the tidbits of good news that we're blinkered to the bigger picture. "
Speaking of being blinkered by things I want to see. Just took a mooch around a couple of usually pro Trump (but not MAGA level pro Trump) social media sites and it's way more critical of Trumps foreign policy than a few days ago.
With Trumps comments/behaviour I am really curious as to what Putin has over Trump.
100% agree
Almost sounds like those peepee tapes were mentioned in the last putin /Trump chat
Trump was always going to shaft Ukraine, it's just shocking to see how he's doing it so blatantly exactly as putin wants
And that's the key thing, it effectively no longer has that.
Well, if you turn out to be correct, which country is next? None in the region can hold Russian military force at bay alone
I am really curious as to what Putin has over Trump.
Isn't it to do with this?
Is not a case that Zelensky wouldn't do a deal with Trump but Putin is prepared to?
Although tbh I can't understand why Zelensky would not be prepared to do a deal. Perhaps Trump's latest outburst is designed to force Zelensky into agreeing into handing over Ukraine's mineral wealth to the United States?
Trump was always going to shaft Ukraine, it's just shocking to see how he's doing it so blatantly exactly as putin wants.
TBH is anyone actually surprised,don’t forget the whole episode in Helsinki with him and deciding that he believed Putin rather than his own Director of national intelligence.
Dan Coats, Trump's director of national intelligence, promptly made clear he did not share the president's view. "We have been clear in our assessments of Russian meddling in the 2016 election and their ongoing, pervasive efforts to undermine our democracy, and we will continue to provide unvarnished and objective intelligence in support of our national security," he said in a statement.
And he also recently mentioned they should be back in the G8.
Sadly, if something is stupid but it works, it’s not stupid. The Russkies might be using donkeys but they are still attacking and taking Ukrainian lives.
Unlike some of the Chicken Little types who claim the sky is falling every time the UKR gets some new kit, I think we (Europe) should be doing much more. Does that mean (more obvious) boots on the ground? I don’t know, but the Orange Shitgibbon getting Nobel Prize is not the best solution for anyone except him and Putin.
This is exactly what I mean, we're so blinkered by the tidbits of good news that we're blinkered to the bigger picture.
TLDR, Ukraine has retaken major cities hundreds of miles apart. Russia is currently struggling to take small towns
Bigger picture. The (self-proclaimed) second best army in the world and undisputed second largest arms seller (and therefore second largest manufacturer of arms in the world) took around 10k sq.miles (7%) of Ukraine between 2014 and February 2022, aided by western indecision and inaction.
In February 2022 Russian forces were in the suburbs of the northern cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv, about 250 straight-line miles apart.
By November 2022 Russian forces had completely retreated from the north of Ukraine and had also lost the southern city of Kherson, about 300 miles south of Kyiv. Kharkiv is in range of Russian artillery firing from Russia; that close and Russia couldn't hold it.
Russia currently holds around 20% of Ukraine and has only taken around 1700sq.miles during the whole of 2023 and 2024. Their advance in '23/24 is equivalent to Cornwall and North Devon (not the whole of Devon) and about as rural.
They've used 11000 North Korean soldiers and weapons from both NK and Iran. NK delivered an estimated 1.57mn artillery rounds alone in 2023 https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/19/mapping-north-koreas-discreet-artillery-ammo-route-to-russia/
How many soldiers have the west supplied to Ukraine?
Europe was never going to commit troops to Ukraine.
I could go on, the bigger picture is much bigger than that
(sources: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682 & https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20241231-russian-advances-in-ukraine-grew-seven-fold-in-2024-data-shows & https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/19/mapping-north-koreas-discreet-artillery-ammo-route-to-russia/ )
The whole proposed mineral rights transaction is pretty bizarre. Rare Earth Elements are mostly concentrated in the Donbas, I see from a few sketchy Soviet-era maps. So it would probably involve Russia conceding ground to the Ukraine/US for them to get access.
The other thing is that nobody knows the true amount of REEs in the ground and whether they can be extracted - the ores are notoriously tricky to process (and China has the most advanced know-how). There’s a reasonable chance that there’s not much value in the transaction (for Trump).
Looks like Zelenskyy has guven up on Trump. He is still trying to work with more sensible Americans.
Trumps stupid comments have bee3called out in Europe. Its time for European leaders toput up or shut up. Let the US isolate itself. Forget trying to placate Trump. Let the Trump Putin deal just be irrelevant and let Trump look the fool he is. Support Ukraine properly. Get the weapons in thete and just ignore Trumps posturing. Trump cannot force Ukraine to accept a bad deal
Yeah Gaza Riviera got a stronger Trump vibe than Donbas. As for the fact checkers, no point any more. Either you know he’s overflowing ****ing shite or you don’t care. These tirades against Zelenskyy are peak Trump (until next time)
Not often I get angry but the Russian ambassador interviewed by Victoria Derbyshire on last night's Ukrainecast has managed it.
Oh come on, if donkeys were a key military unit, they’d be using them from the start. Rather it’s a symptom of the terrible state that Russian logistics have been reduced to.
Meanwhile Ukraine is making 200,000 FPV drones a month.
Agree, Europe needs to sideline Trump.
MEGA. Make Europe Great Again.
It's already pretty bloody amazing though.
Trump has realised that because Ukraine has agency and holds a reasonable hand of cards, it can't be bullied quite as easily as he thought. His pre-election promise to end the war within days and his dreamed of Nobel peace prize and pile of rare earth metals are disappearing down the pan. He is going to fail on another key campaign promise and be made to look weak and foolish because of it. So he is lashing out like the petulant man-baby he is and trying to shift the blame for his own failure onto Ukraine. Only the thickest of MAGA rednecks will swallow this.
Europe is already providing Ukraine with more support than the US. That can be ramped up, as Europe has much more to lose if Ukraine folds. Up until now this has largely been FOC. Zelensky could really, really piss the orange shit-gibbon off by doing a REM deal with Europe! Or, to ensure a massive Trump coronary - China!
Having digested some of this, I'm not as pessimistic about things as I was a few days ago. This is desperation and petulance from Trump, he is going to find out that Ukraine has way more integrity, resilience and fight than he hoped.
It's at the point now where not only does Trump have to worry about being assassinated by random lunatics , but a state sponsored hit is not out of the question
Obviously European countries could find the money to support Ukraine if it wanted to, but do we actually have the hardware or would we just end up buying it from the US anyway?
Zelensky could really, really piss the orange shit-gibbon off by doing a REM deal with Europe!
I think this would be a great result IF the REM can be extracted and processed, which isn't straight forward. But visibly doing a sensible and mature deal with Europe would show Trump just how stupid he is.
Trump has realised that because Ukraine has agency and holds a reasonable hand of cards, it can't be bullied quite as easily as he thought
I'm quite happy to nominate the USA into the same bucket as Iran and invite them to swivel. If people didn't believe that Trump is Putin's shill before this, I don't know what else it'll take to convince them.
or would we just end up buying it from the US anyway?
Does it matter? Defence is one of the biggest employers and foreign earners for the US. Saying no to European arms sales will hit them hard with their own voters and in the wallet. The dollar is king. However, in many areas, especially drone technology and countermeasures, wheeled and tracked artillery and many others, Europe is ahead or at least on par with the US. The defence manufacturing base is being massively ramped up across Europea because of the Russian threat.
or would we just end up buying it from the US anyway?
Does it matter? Defence is one of the biggest employers and foreign earners for the US. Saying no to European arms sales will hit them hard with their own voters and in the wallet. The dollar is king. However, in many areas, especially drone technology and countermeasures, wheeled and tracked artillery and many others, Europe is ahead or at least on par with the US. The defence manufacturing base is being massively ramped up across Europea because of the Russian threat.
I think Europe certainly has world-class capabilities when it comes to defence and arms manufacture, for sure. It just doesn't have the capacity at the moment - but that is certainly going to change. Also, I don't think the US would have a problem selling Europe arms even if the strategic relationship had gone south. It still makes sense from a transactional perspective, which seems to be the level they operate on now.
I saw an interview with Bill Browder the other day, who was saying that behind the scenes of the Munich conference, American politicians of both colours were united in their outlook on Ukraine: they see Ukraine as an ally, and are not comfortable with the Trump approach. Obviously republicans don't have enough backbone to call it out yet, but should this issue get to the house or senate, it's not necessarily going to be plain sailing. Also, at some point there will be a reckoning between the decrees of king trump, and the political realities of the elected representatives...
Trump seems to admire Putin. He's very transactional in thinking. In his view the conflict needs to end, because that would be good for the US and world economy in the short term, regardless of the consequences or any measure of fairness.
If the conflict ended tomorrow. With Russia taking the regions they claim to be Russian, new Ukrainian leadership and restrictions on size of Ukraine's army, the world economy would pick up, gas and oil prices would drop. Not to mention the large number of deaths that would be avoided.
Non of that would be "fair" and it would reward Russia's aggression. There is also the small complication that within the next 10 years, Russia would look be launching a new campaign in Ukraine or elsewhere.
Perhaps Trump's latest outburst is designed to force Zelensky into agreeing into handing over Ukraine's mineral wealth to the United States?
An interesting take I read is that Zelensky has actually played a blinder by prodding the orange idiot into making it clear he isn't an unbiased party in the negotiations - this making them as invalid as if NK and Russia were making the decision.
Risky move of course, but what did he have to lose? Trump was clearly not going to support Ukraine any further.
I don't think the US would have a problem selling Europe arms even if the strategic relationship had gone south. It still makes sense from a transactional perspective, which seems to be the level they operate on now.
The problem for the U.S. arms manufacturers is that the technical support for their gear needs to be approved by the State Department and Pentagon, so the President can basically just brick any U.S. supplied technology on a whim. Trump's unreliability will be making countries around the world look for alternate suppliers.
If the conflict ended tomorrow. With Russia taking the regions they claim to be Russian, new Ukrainian leadership and restrictions on size of Ukraine's army, the world economy would pick up, gas and oil prices would drop. Not to mention the large number of deaths that would be avoided.
But, that is precisely what a Russian victory would look like, and why it can't be handed to them. It's not a military tanks-in-kyiv kind of victory, but it is a strategic one. A fatally weakened Ukraine and a puppet government; it brings the threat of Russia closer to Europe, and nobody in Europe is going to accept that - it is the outcome to be avoided the most! It would not be ten years until the next Russian campaign, and they would have the whole of Ukraine as their supplicant - much like Belarus.
Another key move that I heard highlighted, was for Europe to make the bold move of unlocking all of the Russian frozen assets for Ukraine/Europe to use. That would plug a huge gap in funding when the US turn tail (~£300bn apparently), it removes Trumps leverage over Ukraine, and it also weakens Putin. Putin may see it as an act of war, which may be one of many reasons it's not been used to date, but he's in no position to do anything meaningful about it. It could also become a bargaining chip in future negotiations. Rather than trump saying all sanctions are lifted, the offer could be they'd get some £ back if they reduce their presence on Ukrainian soil, minus some reconstruction funds for Ukraine. It would be a bold move, and boldness hasn't exactly been forthcoming from Europe, but it would be a good strategy, but it has to be done now, before a deal is done.