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Maybe if a few more people (and people covertly funded by other states) put some cash in the assassination pot so that it reaches an 8 or 9 figure sum, then it could be too tempting for folk not to have a pop?
I'm not sure if this is what the creators intended Ethereum smart contracts to be used for but...
Moscow stock exchange remains closed. If it ever reopens it will immediately collapse seems to be the generally held view. Russian companies listed in other markets have lost nearly all their value.
15 years in prison for telling the truth in Russia.
Some reports of protests in Belarus - not clear if true or how widespread.
His gamble has always been that eventually the west simmer down, the sanctions ease, that Europe will come for his gas, that the UN is toothless, and the world’s ultimately divided. Up to this point he’s been proved right every time.
This. So, at what point does a line get drawn?
15yrs for this guy... 😬
Dunno if it's just me but....
I've been around a bit. I don't ever remember the constant, debilitating anxiety caused by world events that I'm feeling now. I don't objectively believe the world is in greater danger now than during previous crises. It's bad, but it's been as bad before. For me, I think there are a few reasons it's affecting me more.
Firstly, being older. More reflective, fatigued, disillusioned. My youthful optimism about redeeming human traits gradually eroded over the years. A personal factor, but possibly the main one for me.
Secondly, the Ukraine war being just the latest in a long line of utterly depressing global news. The relentless, cumulative attrition of climate change, Covid, austerity, our inept and corrupt government, poverty, war and unrest elsewhere. When was the last truly uplifting world news? We really are a f*****g scourge on the planet!
Thirdly and perhaps the only one I have any control over. The all pervading, minute by minute coverage. I'm an absolute sucker for it. Twitter, YouTube, STW. Constantly flicking between news outlets for a different take on it: BBC; Russia Today; Al-Jazeera; CNN; Reuters etc. I've found myself 'doomscrolling' at 3 or 4 in the morning for the last week. It is really starting to mess with my head. I am going to make a conscious effort to step back a bit. I'll still keep an eye on this thread and watch the headlines briefly once a day but that's it.
Sorry, I'm not offering any insightful input to the thread, I just need to vent a little steam to some complete strangers for the sake of my mental health!
I'm in the same boat^^. I got a promotion yesterday that I've been trying hard to get for months and it barely registered because I'm so wrapped up in this shit show. The only thing that lifts my spirits is the thought of Putin getting an absolute kicking over Ukraine
^^^ This too
Last night I got home from the office and, well, just couldn't be bothered. I got narky with my kids for nothing more than being kids then had some beers because why the hell not. It's all ****ed up.
@blokeupthe road
Not just you, I've decided to drink beer, switch off the news and ride a bike this weekend
Vent away it's one of the perks of living in a free country. Even if we have a few bad apple's.
Putin is addressing *his* people later
@blokeuptheroad, vent away chap, I'm the same, plus I started listening to a podcast "The Coming Storm" after being recommended it by a mate, frankly it's all a bit much. I think you've said out loud what most of us are thinking.
When I woke uip this morning to the news that the RF were shelling a nuclear power plant, I was genuinely lost for a moment or two.
Putin is addressing *his* people later
No doubt he'll blame the attack on the nuclear plant on Ukrainians and say his crack team went in to ensure it was made safe.
I'm fine.
Doing none of the work I actually get paid for and toggling between the same three browser tabs for 8 hours a day is actually fairly normal behaviour for me 🙂
15yrs for this guy… 😬
The look on the interviewers face was priceless!
I’ve not contributed much, mainly because I’m not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.
Firstly this - you're describing me too. Just wish to thank all those in the discussion that's contributing helpfully, I'm sure I'll chip in at some point but a lot of this is overwhelming.
And @blokeuptheroad (and others), definitely not just you. I'm glad to read others are feeling the same as me. I'm trying not to overload on news/source outlets. TBH I struggle to know where to start which is why STW is a Great Source Of Knowledge On All Things for me.
I’m fine.
Doing none of the work I actually get paid for and toggling between the same three browser tabs for 8 hours a day is actually fairly normal behaviour for me 🙂
😮 Gizajob! 😄
I started listening to a podcast “The Coming Storm”
Excellent podcast. Not going to cheer anyone up though. 😀
the problem with all these dictator types is they surround themselves with subservient yes-men who owe their entire existence and way of life to the Leader. Saddam, Gaddafi, Kim Jong-un, Putin. They’re all the same.
He's also underpinned by the oligarchs who probably don't really GAS about Russia, but see their fortunes and lifestyles under threat from a situation of his making. They might be the cuddly face of organised crime rather than the finger breaking toenail pulling, but they know people who do that sort of thing.
And money talks.
Putin is addressing *his* people later
And we all enter the alternative universe he inhabits. It's easy to be cynical and laugh at the utterly preposterous lies, but I'm starting to wonder if he's been living this bizarre, isolated existence for so long, and his regime just chucks about misinformation with such abandon, that he now actually believes all this shit?
I do wonder where the next lot of Nazis will come from they have a base on the moon apparently . Or was that film
Oh and McDonald's are still in operation in Russia. If that doesn't give you an excuse not to eat from them this weekend I don't know what will.
I’ve not contributed much, mainly because I’m not a historian, weapons techie or Chairborne forces, just a scared observer.
We're all in the same boat, anyone who claims any sort of expertise (aside from the handful of former Forces people) is chatting shit, like the Brexit and Covid threads, everyone is just trying to make sense of it all.
Yeah, feel the same Blokeuptheroad, I think your first reason is my main issue
Have felt a lot better since Governments have stopped saying the word 'Nuclear' as much, potentially we're heading for another new, but very *****y normal.
Some of the convos on the news are absolutely bonkers, a reporter was asking another about the possibility of Nuclear war the other day on R1, the one said 'probably not, but if I'm wrong you'll not be able to question me on it HA HA HA HA ! Yes hilarious! Serves me right for not listening to R2 in the car I 'spose
but I’m starting to wonder if he’s been living this bizarre, isolated existence for so long, and his regime just chucks about misinformation with such abandon, that he now actually believes all this shit?
I think Putin and Lavrov now totally believe their own BulSh*t...
Anyone care to guess what 'our' line in the sand is? At what point will the US, EU or NATO say "**** it" and send in Peace Keepers or start bombing the Russians? Is there a point when the risk of escalation is preferable to the alternative? It must have come close when they started lobbing shells at a Nuclear Power Station!
“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“
Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.
I don’t think there is anything he will do in Ukraine which will lead to NATO involvement. If he takes one step over the border into a NATO country though then it will escalate.
I think Putin and Lavrov now totally believe their own BulSh*t…
Lavrov was pretty terrifying on the channel 4 news interview last night. He reminded me of a far more sinister version of...
He just came out with a load of whataboutery in reply to any question and berated Cathy Newman on her journalistic standards for having the audacity to question him
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1499491301871349766?s=20&t=DP9DPzght6_XOvW2KusW6A
Anyone care to guess what ‘our’ line in the sand is?
I don't think there is one (at least not publicly). The last time there was a line in the sand was 03 September 1939.
IMO we shouldn't go in with boots on the ground and planes in the air. That will only lead to one outcome.
As horrible as the situation is, I think time and financial sanctions will do their work. The Russian population isn't the same as it was in the 80s. They've become used to the luxury trappings of the West.
Poland is the line for NATO.
No fly zone is so hard to implement politically but if they keep shelling people who knows.
Unconfirmed reports that 4 Chinese students got killed yesterday by shelling but unconfirmed.
They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.
Only a few have experienced the luxury trapping of the west, but Putin has been blaming the west for that while he and his cronies raped the country of all the financial benefits of post communist financial freedom. They have been living brexit on steroids.
“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“
Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.
That's a great quote
Anyone care to guess what ‘our’ line in the sand is?
It's an interesting one fo'shure. I can imagine that quite a few intelligence agencies around he world are reassessing Russia's military capability right now, in the light of what's happened. I think the threat levels have probably gone up because of that.
I don’t think there is anything he will do in Ukraine which will lead to NATO involvement. If he takes one step over the border into a NATO country though then it will escalate.
The other day, a couple of Russian jets crossed into Swedish airspace. This was obviously not an accident, Russia is trying to provoke other countries. Putin knows that Russians do not see Ukraine as an enemy, so he has to try to deny that Russia is in a war with Ukraine. What he seems to be trying to do is provoke NATO into getting involved because Russians are very distrusting of NATO. If NATO responds to his provocations, he will then have a popular war against an enemy, not an unpopular war against a friend. This is why any suggestion that NATO should declare no-fly zones or respond to human rights violations is a huge mistake - it's exactly what Putin wants.
IMO we shouldn’t go in with boots on the ground and planes in the air. That will only lead to one outcome.
To be fair, there's been a risk of a proxy war with Russia in various conflict zones over the past years, it's just that this is far closer to it than anything else since Russia is the direct aggressor rather than "Russian-backed separatists" or whatever other politically correct term you want to apply to them.
“Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities“
Great quote supposedly from Voltaire. It’s why control of the message is so important to him.
I thought it was a Rage Against the Machine line ha ha.
@pk13 looking at some of the videos of the aftermath of various strikes, there's no doubt there will be many foreign nationals among the casualties.
Not just you, I’ve decided to drink beer, switch off the news and ride a bike this weekend
Very much this for the foreseeable future!
I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.
I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.
Yes there is that - part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he's decided that he's going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.
The more I've been reading about the flawed 'Blitzkrieg' invasion I can't hep but feel that either the Intelligence on which it was based was flawed, or that it was designed to fail, perhaps not catastrophically but enough to turn it in to an embarassment. I can't help think that maybe there's an inside job going on to undermine confidence in Vlad and replace him with someone else.
It's disturbing, isn't it? He needs to reinforce a narrative of NATO aggression to prop himself up at home and abroad.
I'm more inclined to think incompetence in his armed forces than an actual desire to lay waste to thousands of square miles of eastern Europe, including a fair chunk of Western Russia, if the wind direction is right. But he's a mad ****er, so who knows?
Yes there is that – part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he’s decided that he’s going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.
There was someone interviewed on Five Live yesterday who was clearly very knowledgable about Putin and Russia who advanced just that theory.
incompetence in his armed forces
I'm not so sure.
The fact that there is a huge convoy full of soldiers and weapons suggests to me that once 'enough' Kyiv-ians have fled, the Russians use the resources in the convoy to do an Aleppo / Mauripol and lay siege to Kyiv.
They'd avoid street-to-street combat, lay waste to an important strategic city and destabilise Ukraine for years to come.
The Russians don't play by the same rules as the West, so I'm less inclined to see what has happened so far as incompetence, but more of a slow, drawn out plan.
Putin just wants to turn Ukraine red on the map, he doesn't care what state it is in.
As for Russians enjoying the trappings of the West, I can only recommend watching any of Bald and Bankrupt's YouTube films where he regularly finds Russians living a genuine subsistence existence and still exhalting Putin.
Lavrov was pretty terrifying on the channel 4 news interview last night. He reminded me of a far more sinister version of…
The Minister for Denying There Are Tanks In The Background was only not sinister because, as it turned out, that whole Saddam-has-Weapons-Of-Mass-Destruction thing was a load of shite.
Putin, does have weapons of mass destruction.
And is looking increasingly Mad Jack McMad, winner of last years Mister Mad competition.
I think he wants to be the fifth face.
I think he wants to be the fifth face.
I think he wants to be the only face😉
On Putin being unwell I know he likes posturing of the big table rubbish but I wonder if he has a suppressed immune syndrome linked illness. or has just gone full on Howard Hughes.
Amazon are still traiding in Russia btw.
Jeff somehow making Elon look like a better person in the billionaire bullshit race
I think he wants to be the fifth face.
His facial hair is sadly lacking to be included in that line-up! 🧔🏻
🙂
The fact that there is a huge convoy full of soldiers and weapons
Its actually in Ukraine, right? Soaking up resources and a massive target, but just sat there?
Waiting for the barrage on Kyiv to flatten the city at distance then go in? Or, genuinely stuck and immobile?
Independent paper saying a key military figure has been killed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kill-andrei-sukhovetsky-b2027858.html
If you want to help in a more direct way there is this site:
https://how-to-help-ukraine-now.super.site/humanitarian-help
Only a few have experienced the luxury trapping of the west
That depends on your definition of luxury. The run on IKEA, for example, shows that certain western things will certainly be missed
Some of the convos on the news are absolutely bonkers, a reporter was asking another about the possibility of Nuclear war the other day on R1, the one said ‘probably not, but if I’m wrong you’ll not be able to question me on it HA HA HA HA ! Yes hilarious! Serves me right for not listening to R2 in the car I ‘spose
It's probably more to do with the Radio 1 generation (is it still supposedly for 18-25s?) having a very nihilistic sense of humour. Lots of 'jokes' about suicide but underpinned by a sense of worthlessness/helplessness because the world is being run by insane boomers who hold all the power and all the money. Putin being an obvious example.
No comment on Radio2 though.
Yes there is that – part of me wonders if he has some incurable disease and he’s decided that he’s going to ensure he leaves his name indelibly etched in history.
You do of course need to leave at least one person alive to write it and another to read it, I do hope he's taken that into account.
Once he's "won" in Ukraine, I reckon the "terrorist" bombs will start going off in mother Russia.
Millions of rounds of ammunition expended in futility and actually, when it comes down to it, only one round needs firing.
Once he’s “won” in Ukraine, I reckon the “terrorist” bombs will start going off in mother Russia.
It's worked for him before.
only one round needs firing.
I'm hoping a whole magazine gets used, just to be on the safe side.
Waiting for the barrage on Kyiv to flatten the city at distance then go in? Or, genuinely stuck and immobile?
Obviously and genuinely, I don't know. Only time will tell.
But look at Aleppo, look at Mauripol and then consider whether the Russians are building up to something for Kyiv?
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
Pretty much every sector of the Russian economy is going to have the same problem. Their oil industry won't last long if they can't import equipment.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1499639074814058499
It is quite well protected by AA, presumably infantry either side to the range of handheld AT and the whole thing is outside artillery range.
I had heard that they are waiting for the Ukrainian artillery to become less of a problem, presumably run out of ammo, and then move forward to a staging post. It's just one theory.
Also, all the talk is of that but the main advances are in the south, it could just be a big decoy🤷♂️
Russian Air Force still missing in action. Seems odd as this is where Russia should have the greatest technical and numerical superiority over Ukraine. Various theories doing the rounds from it being a paper tiger to holding back in case of wider war with NATO.
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
We don't know what damage has been done, we don't know if they still have fuel and rations, we don't know how much of it can still move
You don't have to blow up every truck
In some ways keeping them at some state of working means they further drain any new logistics for fuel and rations etc
The mud is only going to get worse, the Russians could end up abandoning it and walking home
Russian Air Force still missing in action.
One theory is that they just didn't have a big stock of guided munitions so they are going to have to do low-level attacks with unguided bombs. Ukraine has thousands of Stingers etc. so Russia will probably lose a lot of aircraft.
Thoughts - coming up from the south and down from the North are they trying to split the country roughly along the line of the Dniepr? This would isolate Ukrainian forces in the East. The Ukrainians around Donetsk and Luhansk appear to have been left largely alone so this could be why, and they are generally regarded as the best defended areas.
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
I'm guessing, but possibly because:
There will be Russian air defence assets there, making it difficult for fast jet or drone strike. The Ukrainians ability to try either of those must also be degraded as each day passes. I think a lot of air bases in the unoccupied West where drones and jets operate from are taking an aerial pounding from the Russians. Also, they may just be running out. The smart munitions fired from the TB2 drone are expensive and finite- they simply couldn't take out hundreds of vehicles with them even if they wanted to.
The convoy is massive, the defenders might get some opportunities to take out the odd vehicle with a Javelin or NLAW but they'll barely make a dent in it. There are an awful lot of Russian troops milling about, they'll be constantly doing defensive patrols of likely firing points.
I doubt if there is much in the way of Ukrainian artillery left to shell them.
It is quite well protected by AA, presumably infantry either side to the range of handheld AT and the whole thing is outside artillery range.
The AA still needs fuel and rations and to be able to move
Javelin is handheld, range 2km ish, covering 80km (both sides) to upto 2km out will soak up any infantry which they are already short of
The biggest concept that needs to be understood is that of "friction", the Russians in the north are experiencing that
You do of course need to leave at least one person alive to write it and another to read it, I do hope he’s taken that into account.
I started to write that bit then took it out – I agree he could have a very limited audience.
The Ukrainians around Donetsk and Luhansk appear to have been left largely alone so this could be why, and they are generally regarded as the best defended areas.
Nope, lots of hard fighting there. Ukraine's best troops are there but they losing kit
As horrible as the situation is, I think time and financial sanctions will do their work. The Russian population isn’t the same as it was in the 80s. They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West.
This is the approach. It worked last time.
Cut them off, take their assets, let them rot from the inside. Change can only come from within Russia, otherwise Putin will just spin any intervention as evidence that the world hates Russia.
I would think no commander would want to leave their land forces so exposed and based on some of the commentary, the situation is most likely down to poor communications and logistics, poor reliability and simply vehicles getting stuck in mud. If you’re a conscript driving a soft-sided vehicle, then provided you’re not actually being shot at, having some shelter and getting fed, then being stuck in some mud doesn’t actually create any sense of urgency.
"The Russian population isn’t the same as it was in the 80s. They’ve become used to the luxury trappings of the West."
A handful have got used to the luxury trappings of the West, the rest have just watched their freedoms get eroded.
You could say the Russian population is exactly the same as it was in the 80's, or at least it finds itself in the same position... Captive.
If anything Putin has more support from the public than later Soviet leaders did.
A handful have got used to the luxury trappings of the West, the rest have just watched their freedoms get eroded.
I'm not talking about diamond necklaces and Gucci handbags - I'm talking of the everyday stuff - H&M clothes, IKEA furniture, Maccies, iPhones - the stuff we take for granted as it's just stuff to us.
And to say only a few taste these things, I'd guess pretty much every major city in Russia has the brands we are all used to lining their high streets. So millions used to these things, not just a few.
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
It might be bait.
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
It is sucking up RF resources - fuel and food - and having no effect.
As has been pointed out previously, if the convoy is so vulnerable, why is it still there, and not been destroyed?
Apparently:
a) it is not one long line - it is broken into segments and groups.
b) the breakdowns, tyres that keep splitting, lack of fuel etc are holding it back as effectively as attacking it could (and leading to cold, hungry, p*ss*d Russian soldiers)
c) they are striking at random in small groups, as and when they can.
I do think if you had resources, you at present would be going after the artillery and rocket launchers, not a dysfunctional supply convoy.
It might be bait.
I doubt it
It is similar to market garden except that had an exceptional amount of planning but the principles of a single road etc still stand, everything is in the wrong place and as soon as they stop moving they suck resources. Morale plummets with no information, food or fuel, they are degrading every day
I do think if you had resources, you at present would be going after the artillery and rocket launchers, not a dysfunctional supply convoy.
And the AA resources
Of which at least £100m has been abandoned
I actually wondered last night if Putin was deliberately targeting nuclear to provoke a NATO response.
No, its more a case of cutting off power. Target the electrical generators and power being supplied drops. This affects communications, water plants, energy to homes,businesses and industry etc. The point there i would think is to weaken the Ukraine populations ability to wage a insurgency.
If they need to concentrate on getting heat, food for their families they cant fight back.
Were a nuclear accident to occur, this could affect the Russian fleet in Crimea. Plus troop movements and their own ability to wage war.
Despite the reports and claims made last night, there was in fact no damage to the reactors and no release or increase in radiation emissions.
The sensationalizing by our press isnt helping everyone's mood. All it is doing is dramatically raising the fear factor.
"And to say only a few taste these things, I’d guess pretty much every major city in Russia has the brands we are all used to lining their high streets. So millions used to these things, not just a few."
They always liked these things, that's why a pair of Levis' were worth a fortune on the black market back in the day.
Anyhow, I'm sure there's plenty of Chinese factories gearing up to fill the demand. Russia will soon be awash with 'grey imports'. All the brands manufacture their stuff in China anyhow, so there will probably be a few extra night shifts going on in the factories of Guangdong.
One for Nike... one for Russia.
One for Nike... one for Russia.
And so on...
Of which at least £100m has been abandoned
And I think this is where any hope I have is - that Russian losses lead to a lack of bombs, bullets and anything that can harm. I don't know how deep the storehouses are, or how long they can keep throwing things at the front line.