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I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Russia's advances towards Kharkiv are intended to impose a Russian buffer zone as proposed by President "Putin raised the possibility of setting up a buffer zone during a speech after winning re-election on Sunday, a move the Kremlin said would be the only way to protect Russia from Ukrainian attacks" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-putins-buffer-zone-comment-is-clear-sign-looming-escalation-2024-03-18/
Further advances by Russia will be difficult although it might allow them to operate aircraft and artillery nearer to Ukraine's territory, but with a 40 mile glide bomb range and cruise missiles that's something of a moot point.
Artillery generally has a max range of 25 miles, although some gun/ammunition combinations and multiple rocket launchers can reach much further. To advance puts Russian guns inside Ukraine and within range/use of Ukraine's western weapons.
A Russian advance stretches Russian logistics and shortens Ukraine's logistics.
If you look at a satellite view of the area around the Russian positions then it's mainly fields with some wooded areas and it won't be easy to make further advances without armoured vehicles and combined arms. The current numbers of armoured vehicles and experienced troops on both sides will make this difficult. It's also very easy to sow mines by artillery
Reports that Russia has destroyed bridges will only make their logistics more difficult, so I'm going with "buffer zone"
There will also be huge honors bestowed upon the first Russia unit to down an F16. The propaganda value will be vast.
3-4 months ago I was on here saying that 2024 will be a grim year of 'hanging on' for Ukraine and so far that's kinda what it's been. Hence why I've been a bit quiet of late.
After the glorious successes of late 2022 many seemed to think that we'd 'done enough' and that Ukrainian victory was at hand. 2023 and early 2024 showed that to be a lie and one of the few good things to come out of that period was a realization that this can't be done by halves, we are either in this to win or we're not. Over the last few months that lesson finally, finally seems to have sunk in, shame it took so much Ukrainian suffering to get there.
We've had just a tiny taste of what will happen if the West 'loses interest' and it seems to have sharpened minds considerably.
US aid is starting to arrive in theatre this week, the first F16's are now due in weeks not months, The delivery of European material aid is forecast to ramp up considerably in the 2nd half of this year.
The new talk about removing the restrictions on how Ukraine uses Western weapons plus the talk of 300Bn of Russian assets frozen in Western banks being transferred to Ukraine also add to a general feeling that the West is finally 'getting serious' about this and gearing up for the long haul.
Good, I just feel bad for the Ukrainians having to sit and get shelled night and day whilst our politicians dithered.
its not just arms and artillery Ukraine is outmatched in, they have a long border and should have started drafting more troops sooner, even then Russia has a big advantage in soldiers
Yes, but this was considered politically unacceptable. Ukraine has finally strengthened its laws to draft troops after 1000s of amendments (4000 after only the first reading in February) and the law coincidentally becomes enforceable about now. Ukrainians now have 60 days to register
i saw some blaming the fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv. apparently they could see them massing troops but werent able to disrupt.
I don't think that it was any single issue and the advantage in this war continues to be with the defenders if they have the numbers and the kit
I don't see F16 as a pancea, but who knows what Ukraine will achieve with them and I'm happy to be wrong
A series of dismissals and arrests amongst top Russian soldiers seems set to continue... https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-russia-general-kuznetsov-detained-defense-ministry-purge-ukraine/
Drafted is a nice way of saying conscripted.
Let's not dress it up, they're running out of bodies and all the subsequent 'drafts' from this point on, if they haven't already, will start to scrape the bottom of the metaphorical barrel in terms of suitably fit and capable bodies.
Internally I imagine the planners are expecting a sharp rise in casualties and losses, all things associated with such conscription.
I hope they can rebalance or tip the scorecard in their favour sooner rather than later.
fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv
I think most people could understand the reticence to allow it. Not an issue when shit goes bang or works how intended, but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.
If f Ukraine had the capability to deny equipment in the event of such things then it would be less of an issue, but some of the recent equipment and advances in their doctrine/capability may have helped ease that reluctance.
Shoigo sacked, probably a bad thing for Ukraine, considering how shit he was.
Replaced by an economist, not a military guy. That means that Putin has twigged that he needs to get his military economy sorted and try to do something about the corruption.
I doubt that the F16s will be used over the front lines. I think they will be used for air defense well away from Russian air defenses, or to launch precision guided weapons. They won't be flying around strafing ground targets. Key thing will be what radar and electronics they have and what missiles they are supplied with.
but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.
Very true, but thankfully it goes both ways. Whilst western governments have shown understandable reticence to expose the capabilities of their very best kit, I don't think the Russians have held back. They have been fielding the best munitions, weapons and EW kit they produce. And much of it has been abandoned, stolen, captured etc. I'm sure the Ukrainians haven't been shy in sharing it with Western 'advisors'.
Our military intelligence guys will have had unprecedented opportunity to carry out technical exploitation of the very best Russian equipment. This will inform TTPs and allow development of effective countermeasures for years to come if (god forbid) we ever have to have a scuffle with the Ruskies.
Yes, but this was considered politically unacceptable.
In fairness to Ukraine, I can understand the squeamishmess about shovelling the very generation that you will need to rebuild the country into the meat grinder. If you can win with old men who've already had kids then society carries on, some of the ancient Greeks had a similar approach.
Also, if they had expanded the draft I'm not sure they would.have had the ability to train and equip that many people in the early stages of the war.
For a sobering look at Real world consequences of the delays in aid, Joe Macdonalds latest video is a tough watch.
Robert Fico, the pro-Russian PM of Slovakia has just been shot multiple times in an assassination attempt.
His party got 22% of the vote in recent elections, enough to get him the premiership but it's safe to assume that a large chunk of Slovakians disagree strongly with his active efforts to block Ukrainian aid.
Regardless of the Gunman's actual motives and affiliations, there will be a concerted effort to blame this on Ukraine.
In fact, a Ukraine supporter attacking an EU head of state would be so politically helpful for Russia I wouldn't rule out a false flag, esp as Fico has been largely unsuccessful in holding up EU aid and may be more useful to Putin as a martyr.
The truth will out eventually but its going to be a massive mess in the meantime.
Yeah, I've filed it under "crazy person does crazy thing" just now as that's the most likely scenario given what we know.
I see America (Blinken) has publicly said they wont tell Ukraine it can't use munitions they supply inside Russia.
Good. It's ridiculous to effectively make Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind it's back.
“crazy person does crazy thing” just now as that’s the most likely scenario given what we know.
How about 'Concerned citizen shoots corrupt politician'
I see America (Blinken) has publicly said they wont tell Ukraine it can’t use munitions they supply inside Russia.
Good. It’s ridiculous to effectively make Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind it’s back.
He said, "We've not enabled or encouraged strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war"
It's similar to the quote from US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III a page back^^, which isn't what the NSA, Jake Sullivan is saying.
When I see a report of either ATACMS or Patriot exploding within Russia then I'll believe it. The US Helsinki Commission has stated that it should be allowed and Ukraine is sending a mission to Washington to make the plea
Regarding Fico:
His most recent fall from grace was in 2018, when mass protests forced his resignation in the wake of the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée.
Amongst all the other "reforms" he's made he's abolished the department investigating that crime...
His party are also pushing the whole "liberal media" being to blame for the assassination.
There is a standard playlist that seems to be used by all the authoritarian regimes these days. It's been used by Trump of course too, it's just he hasn't managed to usurp democratic government in the USA. Yet.
This is one of the trains why journalists are being killed in such large numbers world wide. Look at Gaza.
I guess this is tangentially related so I thought I would post here rather than start yet another thread about a conflict:
I honestly had never heard of New Caledonia before and was surprised to see it was off the coast of Australia. But it looks like Azerbaijan (and by extension Russia) may have some interest.
There's nothing new about unrest in New Caledonia, it's literally a French colony and the Polynesian inhabitants are quite resentful. It's not really "off the coast of Australia", it's about as far as from the UK to Spain.
It’s not really “off the coast of Australia”, it’s about as far as from the UK to Spain.
I guess that's a long way, but London to Moscow is about the same distance as Perth to Adelaide, so in the context of things it's not that far from Australia....!
But it looks like Azerbaijan (and by extension Russia) may have some interest.
Not wishing to derail the Ukraine thread, but it's more about France-Azerbaijan relations than Russian influence
There's an explanation that saves me a load of typing here... https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240220-how-france-became-target-azerbaijan-smear-campaign
Azerbaijan's relations with Russia are more cordial than those with France, however, Azerbaijan is independent and, for example, exports energy to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor in competition with Russia
in the context of things it’s not that far from Australia
So Asia is a land mass off the coast of Australia?
I think most people could understand the reticence to allow it. Not an issue when shit goes bang or works how intended, but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.
And Ukraine are allowed to use this stuff on occupied parts of Ukraine where there is an equal chance it could be a dud and fall into Russian hands so that simply doesn't add up. Its just more slow walking by the USA to prolong the conflict and degrade Russia slower than needed at Ukraine's expense.
Ukraine were denied a massive opportunity to hit the Russians hard, when they were accumulating before they started the Kharkiv offensive.
An update... no change on how to use US-provided weapons, "And we believe that is within Ukrainian territory," https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/17/7456193/
Ukraine's free reign on other systems have led to attacks in Crimea and Novorossiysk (Russia), where most of the remaining Black Sea Fleet is now based https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/17/7456183/
I don't think there was a total ban before - some of the earlier attacks on airfields and repair facilities in Russia were well explained by the US weapons that 'had not yet been supplied...'.
I don’t think there was a total ban before – some of the earlier attacks on airfields and repair facilities in Russia were well explained by the US weapons that ‘had not yet been supplied…’
I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that. You can be sure that if Russia had found US missile components in its territory then they would have been displayed and played for all that they were worth.
"Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration’s policy has not changed. “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues." https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970
There's an argument that one person's offensive operation in Russia is another's defensive operation to prevent Russian actions, but there isn't any evidence that that is the case either
How are we classifying Crimea. If you're going to lob missiles supplied by NATO participation countries in that direction , then why not clock them 90 degrees east.
Occupied former Ukraine territory, now fully under Moscow control.
I don't know the word , but is it pedantic or schematic reasoning .
I think the recent push into the Kharkiv oblast is more just about stretching the UkrA and forcing them to weaken Southern defensive positions, ready for a new RA offensive there in the summer. I can't see RA/Putin is foolish enough to think they can just use slightly modified meat grinder tactics to overwhelm the Northern defences and actually capture Kharkiv (and then Kyiv).
hat UkrA really need asap is artillery shells, artillery is still the most effective counter to RA tactics. Save the ATACMs etc. for strategic targets like air bases (and hopefully soon a massive strike on the Kerch Strait bridge, although that's trickier due to the amount of AA that Russia have defending it).
As per that vid above the Russians know the ukraine front lines are pretty much out of the necessary weapons to stop them
I was watching a vid about 'turtle tanks' that are now appearing on the front lines. Basically a tank with a massive metal shield built around it to stop drones. Absolutley zero use against an anti tank missle or artillery, but a reasonably effective counter measure to FPV, which it seems is pretty much all ukraine has (or had?) left
The fact they didn't absolutely murder the troop concentrations before the attack is either they didn#t have the kit, or the permission, or both
How are we classifying Crimea.
US has always recognised Crimea as Ukraine, which is why use of ATACMS is permitted.
hat UkrA really need asap is artillery shells
Zelensky now stating that now no Ukraine army units are reporting shell shortages. This is before Czech procured stocks arrive in Ukraine.
How are we classifying Crimea. If you’re going to lob missiles supplied by NATO participation countries in that direction , then why not clock them 90 degrees east.
Occupied former Ukraine territory, now fully under Moscow control.
I don’t know the word , but is it pedantic or schematic reasoning .
This is part of Ukraine's pro-missile use argument. Russia has declared the Donbas and Crimea Russian territory, so where's the escalation in offensive actions within internationally-recognised Russia?
Russia is running at 1500 casualties per day, since the new offensive stared. Insanity.
There is a day by day loss register here... the number of soldiers lost and artillery too is daunting. Nearly at 500k.
It also mentions a submarine but I don't recall one being hit...
https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/
US has always recognised Crimea as Ukraine
Not just the US. Almost every member state of the UN General Assembly.
The sub was a Kilo class in dry dock that was hit by a Stormshadow. It made a proper mess of the sub.
Russia is running at 1500 casualties per day, since the new offensive stared. Insanity.
Rather grimly, if no dramatic break out can be achieved the best chance Ukraine has of surviving this war is to fall back to defensive line after defensive line, inflicting so many casualties in the process that eventually Russian society can no longer bear it and either military discipline breaks down or Putin is ousted.
Bahkmut and Avdiivka were horrific slog fests, but they produced hugely one-sided casualty figures in Ukraine's favour.
To quote Nathanael Greene after the Battle of Bunker Hill - "I wish [we] could sell them another hill at the same price”
That’s the way the war has been going for the last 8 months (whilst Ukraine has been waiting for the US military aid) trading small losses in territory for massive Russian losses in men and materiel. Casualties in this period have typically ranged from 700 to 1000 a day. Since the new offensive front, this has skyrocketed by 50%. Putin is now claiming the aim is to create a buffer zone (total BS obviously) - so it looks like the offensive has failed, and its scope will be scaled back. Massive victory for Ukraine if that’s the case!
"the Polynesian inhabitants"
New Caledonia is in Melanesia. I don't know if it has a disgruntled Polynesian faction.
Massive victory for Ukraine if that’s the case!
Actually a massive victory for Ukraine would be for Russian troops to piss off back to Russia (and that includes from Crimea).
Russia has been destroying bridges in the parts of Kharkiv oblast it's taken, which strongly suggests this is an effort to draw Ukrianian forces away from elsewhere on the front rather than genuine attempt on the City of Kharkiv.
However, had they fully broken through and had the road to Kharkiv laid wide open, I'm sure they would have pushed on.
Probably to make retreat extra hard .
Face the enemy and attack as you aren't coming back the same way you came in.
Those loss numbers are staggering if at all accurate.
There can't be many countries who could muster the sheer volume of mechanised equipment that the Russians have already lost , let alone men .
It's the toilets I really feel sorry for. Losing the cisterns would make installing working toilets pretty hard.
Putin is now claiming the aim is to create a buffer zone (total BS obviously) – so it looks like the offensive has failed, and its scope will be scaled back.
He wanted a buffer zone two months ago. It's normal that politicians pursue personal goals during war, whether it's a democracy or not. It was part of his acceptance speech on the day that he was re-elected President.
It was never intended as an offensive breakthrough with a strategic advantage because of the terrain and a lack of both armour and experienced troops. Dropping bridges behind them only reduced the possibility of extended logistics in the event of a breakthrough.
What it does achieve is stretching Ukraine's forces out more thinly to either facilitate a later offensive or wait out the US elections in November while under less pressure
i dont get the toilet joke ?!
Not much I can contribute to this thread but driving down to Peebles today, youngest spotted a plane trail and asked where it was going.
Well I followed it and somewhere over Poland it disappeared. Hopefully a plane full of supplies. Looking at the plane photos there is a lack of windows.
