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What tyres for:
Ukranian mud.
Newer ones, clearly.
They must not have Kwik Fit in Russia. "These tyres are no good mate you'll need new ones"
I wonder how the Ukranian allies are going to get supplies/weapons into the country?
This was covered by the BBC this morning....
get them to various [secret] locations along the border with NATO and hand over to Ukranian military.
But the convoys could then easily be picked off by air.
Very doubtful there would be a convoy .... just normal lorries heading in various directions.
Edit: Which is possibly why civilians are reporting that food deliveries are being targeted by the RF - they may be, but the RF have no idea if an artic is full of munitions or Pot Noodles.
The Ukranian propaganda campaign is interesting. It is based almost entirely on humour, (not surprising given the presidents previous employ).
It doesn't require that we believe it, (we're living in the era of 'fake news' after all), instead it cleaves to the fact that humans often find a greater truth in humour.
And it keeps the spirits up as well.
PJM1974
Free Member
I’m amazed that the Russians decided to invade during Ukraine’s mud season – either there was a massive planning blunder or perhaps the invasion was postponed?
@PJM1974 - The theory goes that they did it whilst holding the Chair of the UN Security Council, which ended on March 1st. They intended a quick decapitation strike at Ukraine whilst holding the chair of the council which decides on sanctions, peacekeepers, etc.
What tyres for:
Ukranian mud.
The old 26 x 2.1 Trailrakers in the garage will finally pay for themselves!
@sharkbait - the Russians do not have control of the Air. They have air superiority only where they're backed up by SA400 launchers on the ground, so close to the main avenues of attack. This explains why they're using only standoff cruise missiles (which Jane's thinks they've used over 48% of the total national stockpile) for deeper strikes. The Ukranian airforce still exists, but is operating in the west of Ukraine, which is very lucky for the that massive Russian convoy. An Apache swarm from the Polish border would be a sight to see.
It is just an entirely weird situation, the invasion force is what it is, with rumours of badly equipped and trained soldiers, equipment that is failing and so on, it just looks like it really counted on the Ukrainians not wanting to fight Russian soldiers, and stand down, the last few days are the opposite, now they are getting bogged down and it’s still the invasion element, it’s just properly mental, the days of quantity having a quality all of its own isn’t really a viable thing for an invasion, where you need both!
Putin's school of thought is that it's not an invasion force, it's a liberating force. The plan / assumption / hope was that the Russian soldiers would be greeted as conquering heroes by the citizens who were (according to Russia) living under a fascist dictator and desperately wanted to be part of Mother Russia.
So if you're going in to liberate and be greeted as heroes and welcomed in, you don't really need much ammo / food etc nor do you need advanced weapons.
Turns out that the Ukrainians are not living under a fascist dictator and they quite like being Ukrainian.
A missile (clue is in the name) is designed to MISS, not HIT.
Or unless it's a Rapier. Which is designed to sit there and not work.
I seem to recall something about inspection of black sea navy vessels finding that all the turrets were basically painted to the extent that they had *never* been able to turn, let alone fire.
Might have been a thread about that carrier that got turned into a nightclub?
I ummed & aahhed about my last posting!!
It was really just meant to demonstrate the difference between an RPG/guided weaponry & its usefulness against aircraft, rather than a 2 hr presentation on every kind of projectile!!
TLDR – RPGs no use against jets!! Unless you get a very lucky shot, but you might as well try & throw bricks into its engines!!
I knew what you meant and agree. I'm just being an arse, never knowingly missing an opportunity for hair splitting pedantry. Things which go bang were my job for three decades, it's a hard habit to break. Sorry!
The mud thing is weird. Presumably half of Belarus and SW Russia is flat and also muddy at this time of year.
he theory goes that they did it whilst holding the Chair of the UN Security Council, which ended on March 1st. They intended a quick decapitation strike at Ukraine whilst holding the chair of the council which decides on sanctions, peacekeepers, etc.
Putin's main leverage on the EU is supply of gas. If he waited until the mud dried out it would already be Spring in the countries in central Europe that rely on Russian gas, meaning energy sanctions would be very easy to impose.
He doesn’t seem to have considered why none of the old Eastern Bloc seem to want to live under his jackboot any more?
Yeah, the upside of that is Ex-Soviet pilots wondering why NATO jets were so ‘fragile’. the RF pilots can strap in and start and fly away in about 10 minutes with no outside help; try doing that in a F16. also their jets are capable of operating in much much more primitive conditions that ‘ours’ our. There’s pros and cons to each philosophy, but it’s not as straightforward as might first appear
It's like the apocryphal tale of the Americans ploughing millions into developing Fisher SpacePens vs the Russians using pencils.
It doesn’t require that we believe it, (we’re living in the era of ‘fake news’ after all), instead it cleaves to the fact that humans often find a greater truth in humour.
It makes us in the West like them. Because we consume loads of social media, this is aimed at us. And it's working, they have massive popular support which then turns into massive political support. It seems that Zelensky is a master at getting people to like him, being able to go from actor to President in a single campaign.
"Quantity has its own type of quality" only if all that quantity actually still works.
Russia might have 12,000 tanks but if 9,000 of them are T55 and T62s with the turrets rusted solid then it hardly matters.
You also need people willing to drive the tanks too.
My military knowledge extends to occasionally lurking on the Airfix thread but I do wonder if this conflict is the swan song for the tank.
It is something being debated. Look at how the UK are talking about reducing the number of tanks and the US marines have already done so completely.
However the question was whether that was a mistake of fighting the last war and whether the next conflict (think of any possibilities?) might actually have semi modern tank armies going head to head.
@sharkbait – the Russians do not have control of the Air
Ummm.... yeah, I'm sure you're right - but I never mentioned anything about it!
I just said that I doubt there would be a convoy of lethal aid.
Blokeuptheroad - It wouldn’t be STW without some grade A pedantry!!
I’m no expert in tank killing munitions and most of my threats were Sam7 os Small arms fire.
We did discover a working ZSU 23-4 Radar guided AA canon just outside Baghdad though, which made us Pucker Up a bit!
It’s like the apocryphal tale of the Americans ploughing millions into developing Fisher SpacePens vs the Russians using pencils.
This was actually busted. They can't actually use pencils as the shavings from minute amounts of graphite getting into the electronics could have presented a real danger of short circuit
It’s all very well laughing at the poorly prepared Russian ground forces but Putin won’t back down and won’t just give up. Personally given a horrific set of options like the Ukrainians I’d rather have a column of half arsed young conscripts thinking they are on a massive liberation excercise driving down my road in rusty tanks than be staring at the business end of a cruise missile or worse. There seems to be very little thought from the mainstream media about where Putin can go next, bearing in mind the psychology of a thwarted dictator who doesn’t now even have the hearts and minds of all his own citizens…there are absolutely no checks and balances on him or Lavrov and I get the feeling he has been planning this for a decade.
What tyres for:
Ukranian mud.
You'll be looking at the Maxxis Occupiers or the Panaracer Invaders....
I can't see the Russians going home to be honest.
Even if it's true that the Russians might rum out of munitions in 10 days time, that still gives them 10 days to capture the entire Black Sea coastline. If they then run out of equipment, then so be it. They'll just sit there.
Perhaps that column sitting there above Kyiv is a distraction. Putin knows he has limied resources / time and wants to capture as much territory as he can. If he gets the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, he might trade the territory he's siezed where that column is, west of the river Dnipro for the as yet un occupied territory EAST of the river.
The battle for Odessa might be the most ferocious of all, it might be the last chance for Ukraine to have access to the Black Sea.
Bit of a glimpse inside a captured bit of kit, looking pretty tired.
I think what we are seeing in terms of poor military equipment, obvious poor maintenance and suggestions of “creaming off the top” from the maintenance budgets is highly endemic of the Russian corrupt culture these days, something Putin himself has arguably nurtured more than anyone else.
To that end I think it is almost obvious that he will be the arbiter of his own demise… The Imperialist USSR was backed up by Communist ideals, soldiers who believed in the “greater good”. Modern Russia is mostly a state full of people who want a western lifestyle and all the trimmings, and have seen how whilst speaking out against the state can get you thrown in jail and beaten up, corrupt capitalism is almost encouraged!
I see some of that mindset still exists. If you’ve ever seen the TV series ‘Deutschland 83’ it captures the spirit of the times and the mutual mistrust/misjudged motives perfectly.
For anyone who hasn’t seen the Deutschland 83/86/89 series, get binge watching now… Brilliant TV, and from what I understand (I was only born in 1980, but young to remember the 80’s accurately) very accurate too.
Very insightful to hear about your own experiences in Cold War Germany though…
there are absolutely no checks and balances on him or Lavrov and I get the feeling he has been planning this for a decade.
Having just watched Lavrov's latest unhinged rant about Hollywood movies and Torch waving Nazi parades it reminds me of Tariq Aziz' nonsensical broadcasts during the first gulf war.
This was actually busted. They can’t actually use pencils as the shavings from minute amounts of graphite getting into the electronics could have presented a real danger of short circuit
Hence "apocryphal"
I think what we are seeing in terms of poor military equipment, obvious poor maintenance and suggestions of “creaming off the top” from the maintenance budgets is highly endemic of the Russian corrupt culture these days, something Putin himself has arguably nurtured more than anyone else.
But according to Russian Media Putin only owns a small flat in Moscow and a 'trailer' ;o)
French customs have impounded yacht owned by Igor Sechin who is top man at Rosneft.
Germany 1 - 1 France.
You’ll be looking at the Maxxis Occupiers or the Panaracer Invaders….
The Schwalbe Mad Vlad would be worth a look also.
Deutschland 83/86/89 series
The Same Sky is also bingable.
Schwalbe Dirty Dictator
Maxxis Crazy Ivan
Having just watched Lavrov’s latest unhinged rant about Hollywood movies and Torch waving Nazi parades
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUSKBN1GV2TY
(For the hard of thinking, no I don't think that justifies the invasion)
The Oligarchs are another distraction. If Putin manages to occupy half of Ukraine and denies it access to the Black Sea it will be a massive victory for him, never mind the economic factors. When he dies he wants to be remembered as the man who expanded the borders of the Russian empire, making Russia 'great again'.
As for the human cost? What did Stalin say "one death is a tragedy....". If he can achieve his territorial aims whilst mostly commiting conscripts to the slaughter, keeping enough of his professional units intact he'll be a happy man.
Turns out that the Ukrainians are not living under a fascist dictator and they quite like being Ukrainian.
Despite the Pandora Papers stuff and the fact that some have taken "my enemy's enemy is my friend" way too far and tipped over into rw nutjobbery(*), it could be worse, i.e., .... Russia!!
(*) Google Vasyl Slipak - we came across a musical memorial garden for him while we were in Kyiv - an interesting example of both how things are likely to go with keen amateurs going to fight, and what the grain of fact is that the Russians are grabbing on to for justification of their "omg they are all NAZIs I tell you" claims. TLDR He was an opera singer with a Russian girlfriend and a good job in Paris, who went to fight in Eastern Ukraine with a v v right-wing militia, got killed, was awarded Hero Of Ukraine posthumously.
OSINT Technical saying Ukrainian jets have been targeting the convoy. No confirmation yet though.
Not sure how much forest there is.
According to the mighty google, about 9 million hectares, so half the size of England. It's a massive place for an invading army to hold.
Putin's objectives may be shifting to the south, where the landscape is more forgiving.
Putin’s objectives may be shifting to the south, where the landscape is more forgiving.
and where it allows for a nice motorway to Crimea
"Putin’s objectives may be shifting to the south, where the landscape is more forgiving."
Or his objective was the South all along?
I think Putin's objective is to totally occupy the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet regime.
Schwalbe Mad Vlad
Please please please release a mud tyre with this name.
"I think Putin’s objective is to totally occupy the whole of Ukraine and install a puppet regime."
What you want and what you get... Its fairly common knowledge that Putin sees Ukraine as 'The Ukraine". But consider this:
Were that convoy composed of empty vehicles it would have achieved a strategic aim for the Russian forces. We in the West have been obsessed with it for 4 days, whilst the situation in Kyiv remains stable in comparison to what has been happening elsewhere in the country.
Half of Ukraine and all of the Black Sea coastline might be the fall back position but it would still be an enormous victory for Putin.
If Russia occupies the east there could be a massive exodus of Ukranians fleeing West and Putin would find it easier to 'Belorussify' the eastern territory, as opposed to having to deal with a nationwide insurrection.
From an Israeli news report about broken down Russian equipment which actually went on air. I know words cant Express how shitty this whole thing is but this made me smile
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1499380929567072265?t=QSbHn44YzDS_gT9YGgfhnQ&s=08
Or his objective was the South all along?
Whatever territorial gain he achieves he will claim as his objective all along, so we'll never know. We don't know if he still considers taking all of Ukraine a viable proposition, but he will be hoping for an outcome that allows him not lose face. Not sure that exists.
He may take some more Black Sea ports, but his bigger problem is that there will be f all shipping arriving there, or any other Russian port.
Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine's borders.
There may be a few too many armchair military experts among us but when it comes to tyres.....
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
I do - but i'm pretty sure the Ukrainian security services already had a handle on them...
Half of Ukraine and all of the Black Sea coastline might be the fall back position but it would still be an enormous victory for Putin.
No, because...
Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders.
"Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders."
And Putin won't care.
That's the problem with sanctions, asset-freezing, sports bans etc - at some point we either tear them down or we just cause further isolationism.
What do you mean 'armchair military experts'?
I've read Biggles books.
Just call me Air Vice-Marshall.
Thought this was a good thread. Putin and the oligarchs have turned Russia into a shell that doesn't produce anything, doesn't export anything but fossil fuels, and is going to collapse under the sanctions:
https://twitter.com/VinzenzHediger/status/1499325076080054272
“Sanctions will continue at the current level as long as his troops are within Ukraine’s borders.”
And Putin won’t care.
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1499388279749292035
https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1499388290612580354
The best the West can hope for is to hang the curtain rails for the new iron curtain down the length of the Dnipro river. In order to do that Ukraine needs to either hold on to Odessa, or somehow wrench it back in peace negotiations.
It could be Putin's biggest bargaining chip, as I suggested earlier, he could trade it for all the land east of the Dnipro and in ceding it he would claim to show how he is able to 'compromise' in order to find a peacefull solution.
Sorry to be so cynical bit ultimately, a lot of the supply the Ukranians with arms to fight an underground resistance narrative sounds like a Star Wars script. Is this David and Goliath or Luke Skywalker vs Darth Vader?
Wouldn't be hard for Putin to turn the supply of aid, arms, and support to Ukraine as another reason to stick it out and great evidence of NATO aggression and expansion to sell it back home.
I sent a message to a friend of mine in Moscow this morning, his reply was "Yeah, things are getting worse. Our government is going crazy"
People in Moscow know what's going on and they don't all agree with it.
You do know the torch-waving nazi parades are real though right?
That link is 4 years old. A lot has happened since then. Although to be fair I have no idea if the nazis are more active or less now.
@doris5000 - thanks for posting that up, its a really interesting analysis.
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
Stuff you don't really think about like Boeing and Airbus pulling out of maintenance contracts means that all commercial airliners will be grounded within 2 weeks. In a country the size of Russia, I'm sure no more internal flights will have a huge impact, and they can't fly anywhere but internally anyway
There may be a few too many armchair military experts among us but when it comes to tyres…..
The one area I am, possibly ironically, a lot more qualified than most on here to talk about… 😂 Although not directly military tyres… But still.
Schwalbe Mad Vlad
Has provided a few laughs already… 😂😉👍🏻
The imperial stormtroopers in that short “footage” up there though… 😂
Maybe that’s how Mad Vlad sees his troops? 🤷🏻♂️
The view from the EU. I bet they're really shocked at the complete inaction of this Russian-funded government to do anything to really sanction the oligarchs that pay for their election campaigns
https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1499361858284830720?s=20&t=qvBf0XHAGd04gZB8CdqfNQ
“apocryphal”
Yes I know what it means. I was just stating the reason.
"People in Moscow know what’s going on and they don’t all agree with it."
I watched that documentary about the independent Russian tv station last night. It was a portrait of diminishing hope as their world closed in on them incrementally an inexorably.
Whilst things might change with the Russian public, apathy is so firmly entrenched that it isn't going to happen overnight and when it does, the crackdown could be utterly ferocious.
Ask ypurself: Would Putin be prepared to inflict the same type of pain on his own citizens as he does to those of Ukraine?
Sadly it isn't surprising that Boris won't sanction his paymasters. Spineless load of shits
An Apache swarm from the Polish border would be a sight to see.
What? You think that would actually happen if the Russian airforce wasn't in the West?
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
I noticed that the rubble has been in steady decline against the dollar for the last 15 years or so. Even before the war it was worth around 1/3 of what it was in 2008, now it is worth 1/4. That series of posts above helps explain why it is so.
So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment..? I've no clue.
A sober assessment from Chomsky:
So, Russia are closing in on a couple of nuclear power plants in the south of the country. Theoretically, what would happen if they were targeted by missiles, would they go up or are they fairly safe from that sort of bombardment.
The Russians wouldn't be closing in on them if they wanted to destroy them, they would do it from a safe distance. Most likely they want to capture the power stations
IRRC the Asoz brigade were far right extremists who have been incorporated into the Ukrainian national guard. This has supposedly reigned them in but seemingly not that much.
Not sure of the source but seems legit:
Ask ypurself: Would Putin be prepared to inflict the same type of pain on his own citizens as he does to those of Ukraine?
Yes… But for how long?
This isn’t Communist Russia any more, much of Russia might still act like it is communist and believe the state media, but if he wants to wage war on his own citizens (with what army, finances, supplies? 🤷🏻♂️) behind an iron curtain, he won’t be able to do it whilst being heavily committed in Ukraine at the same time!
@doris5000 – thanks for posting that up, its a really interesting analysis.
Very insightful indeed.
So basically, Russia was in terminal decline anyway, due to its financially illiterate, clueless, corrupt government, but the sanctions have just turbo-charged that economic decline to a huge degree
I don’t think Russia was in terminal decline as such, they just hadn’t realised how Globalised they had come (or rather Putin hadn’t) whilst at the same time being incompatible with his Imperialist views…
For Imperialism to work long term, the general public have to fully buy in to the “greater good”… Putin has pushed corrupt capitalism into Russia rather than trying to keep it out, he has essentially created a system that has provided himself with short term cash, but a system highly incompatible with providing any long term impetus on carrying out his Imperialist ideals…
The rest of the world has been all too happy to not pull the plug on the Russian economy for a long time now, because of the obvious gas and oil dependancy… Remove that dependancy, or find an alternative supplier, and as we’ve seen already the rest of the world can pull the financial plug on even one of the worlds largest economies in literally no time at all.
Make no mistake, Russia is going to experience extreme poverty all too soon, and the only way out will be if the EU/NATO/US are happy to prop it up again… And it’s quite clear that will no longer happen with Putin at the helm. Russian people faced with a choice of Putin induced extreme poverty or a ready and willing west helping them to rebuild their economy and bring all the luxuries back again, he won’t even make it to The Hague! 🤷🏻♂️
To quote a phrase… He’s screwed the pooch here!
Not sure of the source but seems legit:
yeah....of course it does if you're a fan of right wing politics, you do know how to use google?
I mean the tweet is real AFAICS
But yeah you're right I didn't check the opindia site and it's shady. Apologies.
But the Asov brigade is a real thing. We don't have to pretend everyone in Ukraine is a righteous hero to believe the invasion is wrong.
Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with 'sexual perversions'.
Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,
And your point is?
Dunno....go on.... enlighten me?
Azov Battalion has a political wing which seeks to eradicate non-whites and those with ‘sexual perversions’.
There is plenty of far more unpleasant stuff associated with the Azov unit out there
Most of Europe has some form of far right nutter group (Polish group chasing non-white refugees etc), the nuances of it in the Ukrainian context are bound to be complex. However it shouldn't distract from the core issue of getting the Russians out of Ukraine, once peace comes then the Ukrainian President who is Jewish after all will have far more political clout to tackle the problem.
according to the the far right got less than 2% of the 2019 election vote. hardly rampant
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-top-10-war-myths-newsguard
They were incorporated and the state pays them salaries. Fairly unusual in a European context, no? It's not exactly a simple case of goodies Vs baddies.
Tommy Robinson posted the same information a few days ago,
A broken clock is right twice a day.
No-one (here at least) is claiming any of this makes Putin's supposed 'denazification' legitimate, but it is an interesting and concerning aspect of all this.