Hopefully he doesn’t “accidentally” fall out of a window like Maskin Borodin did after criticism of the regime.
I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.
Personally I think all involved in the dodgy dossier should have been up on charges of Treason ( or whatever the most appropriate significant charge is)
It's the biggest decision you can take to commit UK lives to inflict extreme violence on another country. You don't do it on a web of deceit. There needed to be consequences to ensure it doesn't happen again.
As for Belarus, it's hardly a normal functioning state, the influx of Russian troops is clearly to bolster the dictatorship, Russia has to be willing to deploy troops to keep these dodgy regimes in place.
The Belarus statement is confusing, it’s with Russian support it continues to exist.
I also can’t see anyone here indicating they want western military intervention, or even cheering a conflict on. Have I missed a few pages of “gosh I hope it kicks off”?
Defending Squirrelking ?. Im not defending anyone. Im saying playing such games are a danger to everyone. It is you who appears to be defending the rights of these countries to threaten the security of another and drive them into games of brinkmanship.
This is how Russia sees it. Wouldn’t it be prudent to take note of those concerns and perhaps pull back.
It's Russia playing the games though, it's been explained how NATO expansion works a few times so I'm not going to rehash this argument, suffice to say Putin is the one rattling sabres.
But yet again the STW mob is attacking the individual for daring to question the narrative.
I'd say it's more stubbornness on your part to see things from the other side. Of course you could use the argument that Russia are defending themselves but where that falls apart is that they acted first. By all means question the narrative but you have to bring facts to the table, even better if they have sources.
I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.
You couldn't be more wrong about that actually. Personally speaking of course.
I’ll bet you lot were cheering the house over weapons of mass destruction lies and wanting an invasion of whomever to take place soon as possible. From whats been said thus far, any dissenting voices expressing concern would have been descended upon.
You couldn’t be more wrong about that actually. Personally speaking of course.
He's just frustrated because people keep pointing out how ridiculous his comments are. I doubt that he actually believes that we are all warmongering nutters, he's just lashing out with insults because he has nothing else to use.
Have I missed a few pages of “gosh I hope it kicks off”?
Only in the imagination of a few
A significant conflict with Russia is the last thing anyone wants, at the same time a democratic state falling to an invasion by a kleptocracy isn't what anyone outside a small Putincentric group want
So we have the fudges we have now, in effect there is a shadow war going on with each side flexing it's response and young Ukrainians still dying at the points of contact
NATO has it's faults, US foreign and military policy has to be in part countered by Western diplomatic pressure. But when the Russians or Chinese start preparing for a land grab then everyone wants to be their friend.
He’s just frustrated because people keep pointing out how ridiculous his comments are. I doubt that he actually believes that we are all warmongering nutters, he’s just lashing out with insults because he has nothing else to use.
The internet is a terrible place to have a discussion, I personally let it wash over me. He is right on some points NATO isn't perfect, US and UK have done things they shouldn't have for dubious reasons.
Where the issues centre around Ukraine then the context shifts, a deployment of a third of the strength and probably 2/3 of the fighting capability of Russia in the area on a offensive footing isn't a defensive act. The precursor activities are not a defensive act. The NATO baddddd argument doesn't correlate with what is happening. If NATO didn't exist I doubt the Baltic States would exist in their current democratic form etc
Yep, the whole thing is super weird. Is it normal to amass this many troops and then.....just sit there? For weeks? Is it a bit like the phoney war in WW2?
The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin's a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!
Putin has: Attacked Georgia, purposefully bombed Syrian civilians, annexed Crimea at gunpoint, destabilised Donbas, let's not forget MH17, all the cyber attacks, and the fact that 100% of non NATO Russian bordered states have Russian troops in them...And the US, EU and NATO are being aggressive?
The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!
Posted 1 hour ago
Or because Xi has asked him to?
Also, let's the ground dry out a bit and get a bit more tank-friendly.
China won't be imposing any sanctions, and if a big as a player as that doesn't how much effect can ours really have?
Also, let’s the ground dry out a bit and get a bit more tank-friendly.
Spring is a few months away yet, how long can Russia afford to keep thousands of troops (some of them conscripts) living in tents? And how long before some of those vehicles become un-serviceable. I think time's not on Putin's side here.
The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!
You have just signed a significant bilateral agreement with the host of the Olympics, you don't think it was discussed? Would the Chinese want one country competing to declare war on another during the games?
He only has to be there long enough for the other side to blink and give him the concessions he wants.
As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.
The Economist reckons they are waiting until the Olympics is finished. What, because Putin’s a sports fan? It jaut seems so incongruous!
China wants people to watch the Olympics and see China in a positive light, not to be distracted by a war in Europe.
Spring is a few months away yet, how long can Russia afford to keep thousands of troops (some of them conscripts) living in tents? And how long before some of those vehicles become un-serviceable. I think time’s not on Putin’s side here.
This is what the Twitter thread discusses, essentially Putin has a small window to make a go/no go decision. After the Olympics, before the conscripts go home, when the ground is good for manoeuvre. But that's the full invasion scenario, the disrupt and terrorise scenario continues regardless
As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.
With deteriorating combat power and morale, you can't keep them at a high state of readiness for ever
As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.
Lots of them are conscripts and their time's up in April. Now, he can make them stay on a bit under emergency powers, but Russia is as war casualty adverse as most other countries. (perhaps even more so) One of the reasons Russia withdrew from Afghanistan was the non stop 'parade' of returning injured and dead soldiers; it got so bad that they started bringing them back to Russia at night-time, and that was the old communist regime.
Putin is on the horns of dilemma, the longer he waits, the less threat his build-up is, and less likely he is to be able to invade, he's deeply unpopular at home, and needs a 'win' . So far it's not worked. he's running out of options, money, and time.
As for the army, they can stay there as long as he wants them to.
Frozen ground is better, tho not an obstacle
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/31/putin-russia-ukraine-frozen-ground/
Granted, but you can continuously move troops in and out. If you are exercising, you can rotate troops out to a rear area or their original station and bring in new troops to continue the training.
The troops moving would gain experience of having recent training and would then go on to get some rest, the troops coming in would be fresh and would be able to top up their training. As a benefit, while they are switching over, you'd have twice as many troops in place for a limited time.
If I had doctrine that relied in a significant part of overwhelming numbers of ground troops, I'd be looking at planning a phased relief in place a couple of weeks before I wanted to invade. My existing, trained troops would have had a couple of weeks to relax and pass experience on, the fresh new troops would have had a couple of weeks of training and would not be worn out yet.
I'd want equipment as well maintained as possible, so maybe bare minimum aircraft activity before that period as the bulk are serviced and made ready, same with IFVs and tanks.
Picture of liz truss on BBC website - she looks like an extra from Dr Zhivago.
I tend not to do politics on here but that woman is an absolute cockwomble wouldn't even make a third rate tictok influencer.
And sadly Putin has to do something I don't think he expected the support the Ukraine got and has backed himself into a corner.
The Ukraine army has dug in and has western support Evey inch of the Russian front will have been photographed.
It needs a huge diplomacy mind to unravel the mess.
They had some of her speech on the radio news.
She didn't sound as shit as Johnson, despite the stilted delivery.
How far have we fallen that Liz Truss is a better public speaker than the PM.
I love that childlike, almost vacant look she tends to do when trying to look stern and powerful.
My lad used to do a similar expression when on the potty.
It needs a huge diplomacy mind to unravel the mess.
Which presumably is why Liz Truss is in Moscow!
This thread will be redundant by teatime, you mark my words.
Didn't sound as shit as Johnson. That should be on the dust cover of her book. She will write a book or someone will for her.
That photo is the perfect example of why some of Russia believe Putin.
"See comrade the British still think Russian people dress like the emperor"
She should have worn a tracksuit and Prada trainers and had her phone above her head way more insta
My lad used to do a similar expression when on the potty.
She does look like she is curling one out...
I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov gets to act any way he damn well pleases as he’s part of a mafia state. Like being an arsehole and walking off the platform like a petulant child. It must be pretty thankless trying to “negotiate” with an organisation that will ignore everything until it gets want it wants
I think Truss has played into Russia's hands perfectly
shes given them exactly the kind of pretext they wanted
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1491771623497777159
*facepalm*
I have some sympathy for Truss here.
You know that then the government she serves in is awash with dodgey Russian money?
I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov gets to act any way he damn well pleases as he’s part of a mafia state. Like being an arsehole and walking off the platform like a petulant child. It must be pretty thankless trying to “negotiate” with an organisation that will ignore everything until it gets want it wants
I don't, the Russian behaviour should have been anticipated, she should have prepared properly. She occupies one of the great offices of state, we expect better.
She needs to drop the rest of her portfolio and focus otherwise the major embarrassments will continue
You know that then the government she serves in is awash with dodgey Russian money?
Precisely. Its always annoying when your employer screws you over.
I have some sympathy for Truss here. Lavrov
I agree with you. We all need to feel sympathy with the morons who have, through their own narcissism and egomaniac ambition, not even been arsed to do even the bare minimum of research for the hugely important meeting they were about to attend?
Poor Liz, eh?
So, should I start building the shelter this weekend?
What the **** were they even doing there? Patsies used to legitimise ignoring NATO and build the pretext for invasion. Basically just handing Putin the option to invade.
Basically just handing Putin the option to invade.
I don't think Putin really needs options handed to him by any outside influence as to make a decision about whether he invades Ukraine or not.
What the **** were they even doing there?
Truss was there to get some good shots for her leadership campaign, Johnson in Poland to show the domestic audience how he's respected internationally
Macrons efforts also not irrelevant to the coming elections.
Ultimately this posturing is also for Putins domestic audiences too.
Politics trumps peace?
The russians have sent in the Hilux convoy.
Weren't Toyota the preferred vehicle of the Taliban
The Hilux is the preferred vehicle for all, rebels, freedom fighters and roving bands of terrorists the whole world over.
Usually with a Dushka or a rocket pod welded into the load bed.
@nickc no but it adds to the narrative, a free propaganda boost, naive in the extreme
Are we reading much into the UK and US government's asking thier citizens to leave Ukraine?
---
US officials anticipate a horrific, bloody campaign that begins with two days or aerial bombardment and electronic warfare, followed by an invasion, with the possible goal of regime change
Pretty much identical to the way America usually starts invasions. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc etc
Are we reading much into the UK and US government’s asking thier citizens to leave Ukraine?
It's probably due to the planning assumption that UK/US force won't be allowed to deploy on the ground to enable an evacuation and a fast moving highly destructive campaign by Russia
Reduce the numbers in Ukraine reduce the risk
The counter argument is that it does some of Putin's work for him by getting rid of bystanders who can cause a lot nuisance (a rather unfortunate "dead Ukrainians don't count" analogy) and attention from foreign media and demands for NATO intervention
Pretty much identical to the way America usually starts invasions. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc etc
And everyone else if they had the capability
Pretty much identical to the way America usually starts invasions. Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria etc etc
And how Russia started in the second Chechen war. Not doubt the Ukranians will be just as determined as the Chechens were, only better armed. And more united than the Afghans.
Taking Ukraine might be really simple for Russia. Subduing it will be another matter
Also, what's Xi up to? No obvious signs of an invasion of Tiawan coming up but coordinating it would make sense. Although Taiwan is probably harder, as in better defended and simply more difficult to get to.
The joint war games end on the 20th.
Black see navel exercise ends on the 20th.
I'm guessing that's why the US want their envoys out.
This crisis is like watching two drunks fighting over some tart outside a nightclub.
So what really happens if Putin does invade?
US saying he plans to encircle Kyiv and enforce regime change without urban fighting.
So what would happen, Ukraine doesn't have the forces to stand up to Russia, no matter how determined they might be.
Nor does anyone else in the region.
America won't directly step in
Putin has built up big reserves & couldn't care less about sanctions.
The only other option is cyber, but Russia seems better prepared for that than we are
https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-disconnected-global-internet-tests-rbc-daily-2021-07-22/
Although Taiwan is probably harder, as in better defended and simply more difficult to get to.
My guess would be China is still some way off that. They have had an insane growth in military capability but its still a work in progress.
Depends though if Xi starts feeling old and wants his legacy.
Putin has built up big reserves & couldn’t care less about sanctions
I thought earlier in the thread there were suggestions he has a chunk of foreign currency, but other than that pretty broke.
US saying he plans to encircle Kyiv and enforce regime change without urban fighting.
Bush speech on Iraq
" “Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised. This regime has already used weapons of mass destruction against Iraq’s neighbors and against Iraq’s people.” "
I dont think we can believe anything the US has to say on this. Most of what they come up with they've yet to show any proof even when asked to.
I still think this is just all posturing.
I still think this is just all posturing.
We can do a game, which country has more troops/ tanks/ planes/ warships on the border of Ukraine?
Which country is posturing?
Boden has explicitly said no US troops fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Who is posturing?
dyna-ti
Free Member
Tell you what. Go argue amongst yourselves, I’ll not be checking back into this thread.
I still think this is just all posturing.
Great, you're back, endlessly reposting the same thing over and over again despite all the evidence to the contrary.
Who is posturing?
Er... Russia.
For your benefit B&D.
Posturing:
Noun - behaviour that is intended to impress or mislead.
As I've said, nothing is going to happen and its all a show.
🙄
Sorry 😆 which evidence is this. Last time I looked they hadn't actually invaded yet.
Try to keep up with events thols. I'm sure the BBC will let you know when something actually happens.
Or is it you think the US is some peace loving country that never causes any problems anywhere ever. My my, that would be a stretch of the imagination and truth wouldn't it. But if you care to disagree then feel free to show proof of that.
despite all the evidence to the contrary.
You'll have to remind me. Which country was it that coined the term 'Gunboat Diplomacy' I think it was the US, but might have been the UK.
No different going on here.
So UK in same place as US, armed forces minister on R4 confirms no UK troops in Ukraine if Russia invades (or the Stop the War version; Russia takes defensive measures against NATO aggression )
Im sorry B&D. this isnt the 18th century where we need 2 armies to build up across a battlefield, before it al kicks off. Thats not how these things are conducted these days.
Isn't posturing a verb?
Or is it you think the US is some peace loving country that never causes any problems anywhere ever. My my, that would be a stretch of the imagination and truth wouldn’t it.
See, this is just your failure of imagination. The US has done, and continues to do some of the worst things with it's military and 3 letter agencies . THAT DOES NOT EXCUSE Russia trying to do the same thing to the countries on it's borders. Just because some posters of this thread are critical of Russia's actions, does not exclude the possibility or indeed likelihood that those same people are also critical of the actions of NATO, the US and the UK.
Isn’t posturing a verb?
Posture is a verb, posturing is a noun.
At no point have i said I wholeheartedly agree with the actions of Russia, only that i can understand their point of view and concerns in this matter.
Some think that this is an acknowledgement that i think Russia would be justified in invading.
Russia invading would cause Russia great harm economically, but not if they just threaten to do so. After all this isnt the US or any of the countries they support and supply arms to Saudi in its war against the peoples of Yemen for example.
Nobody also seems to want to acknowledge the parallels between this and what happened in Cuba. We nearly had WW3 over that and the simple premise is the US didnt want the soviets sitting with military and armaments really close to them. Russia feels this is the same.
Posture is a verb, posturing is a noun.
* strictly speaking, and depending on context it's a gerund or a present participle.
"Advanced forward presence" To shore up those battalion sized battle groups they they have in the former Soviet countries.
Incidentally Kelvin, I cant speak German. Is there some way that link can be translated ?.
I do wonder how these countries, Romania, Poland*, Lithuania etc feel about some joint war going on in their countries. I'll bet they've all seen before and after pics associated with such proxy actions.
*Especially Poland. They've great experience of how western politics behaved towards them at the end of WW2, when their country was gifted to Stalin.
Russia feels this is the same.
I think that's Russia's excuse for trying to invade Ukraine, after all Putin must know that invading a neighbouring country isn't going to make this problem go away. I don't think for a second that Putin is actually worried about having NATO on Russia's borders, after all, they've been on his country's borders his entire lifetime.
when their country was gifted to Stalin.
I don't think NATO should gift Ukraine to Putin.
Given that Romania, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia are all NATO members I think that tells you something about how they feel at the prospect of renewed Russian expansionism. They had decades of Soviet oppression and don’t wish to see it again.
At the end of the Warsaw uprising when Poland could have been freed by the Soviet advance, Stalin ordered it to be halted. The express purpose of this was to allow the Germans free rein to commit mass murder and destroy most of Warsaw. This also destroyed any real hope of Poland emerging as a sovereign nation post WW2 and allowed the Soviets to march in and commence 50 years of oppression.
Last time I looked they hadn’t actually invaded yet.
They invaded Crimea and the eastern border areas of Ukraine several years ago. They have been building up very large forces around the border of Ukraine, seemingly in preparation to continue the ongoing invasion on a larger scale.
Or is it you think the US is some peace loving country that never causes any problems anywhere ever.
The U.S. isn't preparing a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is. If the U.S. was doing that, I'd be strongly opposed, just as I was opposed to the invasion of Iraq.
Nobody also seems to want to acknowledge the parallels between this and what happened in Cuba. We nearly had WW3 over that and the simple premise is the US didnt want the soviets sitting with military and armaments really close to them. Russia feels this is the same.
The U.S. does not have any weapons in Ukraine, let alone nuclear tipped ballistic missiles. This is not about Russia being concerned about U.S. missiles, it's Russia refusing to acknowledge Ukraine's right to make sovereign decisions about whether it wants closer ties to the EU.
I do wonder how these countries, Romania, Poland*, Lithuania etc feel about some joint war going on in their countries. I’ll bet they’ve all seen before and after pics associated with such proxy actions.
Those countries were very keen to join NATO because they were afraid of Russia. Ukraine also wants to join NATO for the same reason. Russia's actions justify their concerns.
The NATO smoke screen is being overplayed. What do you think Putin will say when the EU block has a joined army. "We must have an invasion of Ukraine as we don't want an EU army in Poland it's a direct threat to the motherland"
He has gone mad and no one in his club wants the free cash train to end so they won't get rid
“Advanced forward presence” To shore up those battalion sized battle groups they they have in the
former Soviet countriesindependent sovereign states which are members of NATO.
FIFY
I do wonder how these countries, Romania, Poland*, Lithuania etc feel about some joint war going on in their countries. I’ll bet they’ve all seen before and after pics associated with such proxy actions.
As you well know the "war" is already ongoing, Russia is constantly preparing the ground to destabilise, setting up infiltration, positioning assets, testing cyber warfare capability. They joined NATO to ensure that the Russian activities can't escalate because article 5 would be triggered
I wonder why the Finnish are now talking about NATO membership?
that story is about Finland stopping foreigners, especially Russians, but all foreigners, from buying homes/land near their bases. I'm not subscribed to the independent but from the headline it doesnt appear to say Finland are interested in joining NATO.
At least not according to the Finnish foreign secretary Pekka Haavisto as of last month i see. Of course this stance could have changed, but it doesnt sit with their usual policy on being a part of NATO.
They are in bi-lateral agreements with NATO, but they(and Sweden) like to have their own terms and not feel like they're under pressure form anyone.
Besides, the Fins have nowt to fear from Russia. They've proven that before.
Besides, the Fins have nowt to fear from Russia. They’ve proven that before.
More utter nonsense.