BBC are describing Belarus as an occupied country.
I think Belarus will be fully absorbed sooner or later.
From CNN.
German Leopard 2 tanks have been delivered to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Monday. Ukraine also said it received British Challenger main battle tanks.
I bet the Russians will be chomping at the bit to display a burnt out western tank for propaganda purposes. Hopefully each one lost takes out a good amount of Russian stuff before that happens though.
Unfortunately, while Russia doesn't have many tank guns capable of penetrating Western armour, they do have capable missile systems.
Tank-on-tank hasn't been a big feature in this war as far as I can see but tactically Ukraine has been far better and their western weapons will hopefully keep Russia at arms-length while advancing.
The biggest problem is tank numbers; the US deployed 1900 M1A1 Abrams to Iraq for Desert Storm while Ukraine has only a few dozen western MBTs
CR2 will continue to chalk up T series K-Kills once again. Noice.
Bonkers to think this will be the second conflict for CR2 up against similar armour and a first for Leopard2.
Ironically, taking on waves of T-72's whilst heavily outnumbered us exactly what the Chally 2 was designed for back in the 80's, hence why its so well armoured.
Whilst I'm not going to pretend they will be invulnerable vs more advanced Russian missiles or mines, they've proven highly resilient against older tanks and basic RPGs.
Ditto HESH rounds, they won't do much against the very latest T-90ms or the semi-mythical T-14 but they will absolutely ruin anything older or lighter.
Ditto HESH rounds, they won’t do much against the very latest T-90ms or the semi-mythical T-14 but they will absolutely ruin anything older or lighter
True, but they will certainly give the crew a headache.
In a further sign that Moscow was unhappy with the state of the fighting, Russian media on Sunday reported the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, had sacked the commander of its eastern military district, Lt Gen Rustam Muradov.
Russian rearranging the deckchairs again. This from an article in the Grauniad about an assault detachment made up of experienced soldiers who had to bribe commanders not to go to the front and those who did end up there where shot if they tried to retreat.
If (when) the UA attack in force, I can envisage a scenario whereby the Russians collapse like a house of cards..
If (when) the UA attack in force, I can envisage a scenario whereby the Russians collapse like a house of cards..
Have we not been wishing this for a year now?
Sadly it feels like the sheer numbers of Russians with various things that go bang are able to just slow and hold up any advance.
I do agree that it seems as though many Ukrainian personnel have been trained outside of the country over the winter, and they are now returning to some shiny new kit. I also agree that as the weather improves the Ukraine forces will go on an offensive - and we have had a few weeks of slowly pushing towards getting rid of some infrastructure or forcing it to be more dispersed or less accessible in preparation for an offensive move.
But sadly the last year has shown that Russia is dangerous and will fight back.
Interesting points Matt. However we saw what the UA is capable of (and to a lesser extent what the RA is incapable of) in Kharkiv and Kherson in the Autumn. Lots of scepticism prior to those counterattacks iirc..
Since then the UA have got stronger. More and better weapons, better trained men (and women) and the Russians have got weaker. Less men, morale through the floor, forced to reintroduce weapons and machinery that was out of date in the 80s, let alone now.
The UA have happily rope-a-doped the RA around Bakhmut, happy with a ratio of 6-7 RA killed for every UA. The Russian leadership in the Kremlin are increasingly fighting amongst themselves / jockeying for power once this all collapses. All it takes is a few to buckle for it to become a rout. If the UA attack with overwhelming force in one area and break through behind RA lines, I can see them surrendering in droves whilst the officer class commandeer the fastest cars they can to get safely back across the border.
At least I hope so. I think the myth of the inexhaustible RA is starting to be exposed. No point in having lots of men if they have rubbish weapons, tactics and leadership and don’t want to fight..
The UA have happily rope-a-doped the RA around Bakhmut, happy with a ratio of 6-7 RA killed for every UA.
Blimey, this is a strange way to describe an absolutely desperate situation for the Ukrainians fighting to liberate their own country. I don't think happy will be an emotion anyone from the president down will have felt for the last 15 months or so.
thats exactly what I thought, unfortunately phraseology, you know what he means though
strategically it makes sense to hold (if you believe the statistics we are fed by the media)
I don’t think happy will be an emotion anyone from the president down will have felt for the last 15 months or so.
You'd be surprised the boost in morale that fighting troops get from routing their foe. It may be a desperate situation but the blokes doing the fighting will have moments to smile about and be happy, when you're in those situations you look for them.
Yeah, maybe an unfortunate choice of phrase. But the point still holds. Whilst the UA have been re supplying and re training their guys, they will see the tactical and strategic advantage of letting the Russians expend countless thousands of troops, hundreds of fighting vehicles and what little morale they still have, breaking themselves on dug in, motivated, well supported troops, to try and take a town of little strategic value.
Come the Spring the Russians will be tens of thousands troops worse off, will have significantly less armour, guns and ammunition than they otherwise would have and will have an army who increasingly want to be anywhere but there, and are increasingly unafraid to express that.
This is an existential situation for the Ukrainians. Given what they’re facing, they probably are happy that the Russians are to an extent doing their job for them.
And as RM says above (who I suspect knows a lot more about this kind of thing than most of us), the guys on the ground will be getting a morale boost watching the Russians repeatedly crashing into a brick wall.
Anyway, it’s all moot right now. Other than the RA attempt to take Bakhmut at all costs will in future be studied as one of the most pointedly stupid and futile offensive actions in the history of warfare!
Have we not been wishing this for a year now?
Whilst I agree with much of the pro-Ukraine sentiment expressed above I do feel that realistically the Ukrainians have one big chance to decisively win this war and their recent caution is well warranted.
If they are unable to break through in 2023 this will grind down into a stalemate and eventually they will be dragged to the negotiating table as the alliance behind them starts to fracture and Putin will probably end up keeping much of what he's stolen.
They have the kit and the troops to make one.. big.. push... and if it works then it will have a genuine chance to collapse the Russian war effort, if it fails then best case scenario Putin keeps a large chunk of their country, worst case.. who knows?
Hence why we didn't see a Winter Assault (as I fully expected to see) from them, they're keeping everything in reserve including most of their new NATO Kit, for example; the Bradley IFVs have been in theatre for a while now, has anyone seen any combat footage of them yet from Ukraine yet? I haven't.
Ukraine are using the horrendous carnage in Bahkmut to keep Russia's best units occupied and wear them down whilst they patiently get their ducks in a row for the offensive.
They have one shot, they can't afford for it not to work, so they're taking their sweet time. Grim though that may be for the defenders in the East in the meantime.
Just to be contrarian, i dont think well see one big push, nor do I think western support will falter significantly if the war isnt concluded in 2023.
My guess is that there was no winter offensive as the UA know it would of stopped come the Spring thaw. They have made a strategic decision to attrite their enemy over the Winter at Bakhmut. There was talk of a withdrawal and then it appears that a different strategy was chosen.
From my armchair General position, I would expect to see an UA offensive after the mud has gone.
I don't think the ground froze hard enough or long enough to support a sustained Winter offensive.
Anyway Mike Martin says:
The UA must be pretty exhausted by now, even with unit rotations. Whilst I hope they do make a decisive counter-attack to Melitopol and sever the land bridge the RA has to Crimea the reality is it won't just take a lot of resources to conduct the attack but also a lot hold it. That probably means redeploying reserves from other fronts which is risky. The RA is definitely weakened but they're still able to conduct local attacks (and have had some successes, albeit less frequently than there losses).
Even if they were successful in cutting the RA land bridge I doubt it would be enough for Putin to sue for peace and if HIMARS starts wiping out RA presence in Crimea then there must be a good chance Putin will escalate somehow but it's unlikely it would trigger a NATO intervention so difficult to see how a UA attack would be decisive enough to end the war.
Even if they were successful in cutting the RA land bridge I doubt it would be enough for Putin to sue for peace
Putin is never going to sue for peace. Ukraine might be able to expel Russia from Ukrainian territory but they cannot invade and conquer Russia. As long as Putin is in power, he will keep launching attacks on Ukraine.
Putin is never going to sue for peace
Putin is never going to honestly sue for peace. He may do so if he sees an advantage, for example to rebuild his forces and divide Ukraine's supporters.
I don't think Ukraine will fall for such a ploy. They know the reliability of Russia's guarantees and the consequences of trusting Russia in the past.
Putin is never going to honestly sue for peace
Indeed. It needs some special skills or an insider coup.
why havent they finished off the bridge into crimea? they showed they have the capability to damage it, why not keep hitting it and disrupting supplies? Wouldn't it make life a lot harder for RU if it was down / damaged again?
nor do I think western support will falter significantly if the war isn't concluded in 2023
I think it won't collapse quickly but it will get progressively harder to sustain and, politics being what it is, unscrupulous opposition parties will use it to create pain for governments, you have long time Putin-fan Silvio Belusconni making his comeback in Italy and more worryingly, an increasingly pro-Russian lean on the right wing of the GOP, a Trump or Desantis Whitehouse would be catastrophic for Ukraine.
A failed assault accompanied by gleeful Russian videos of burning Bradleys and Leopards would accelerate this slide considerably.
The longer this war goes on the more troops on the front lines will dig in a deepen their defenses, encouraging a grim war of attrition that favors Russia and the harder it becomes to break through and return to the kind of rapid maneuver warfare Ukraine have proven themselves to be highly adept at.
There are a few paths to Ukrainian victory but by far the clearest is a successful Spring offensive this year.
why havent they finished off the bridge into crimea?
I have a sneaky suspicion that rather than allow time to repair it, it may be better to take it out as part of The Big Push. You do want to give the Russians opportunity to run away...
Also, much discussion on here about how hard it is to take out a bridge like that properly a few months ago IIRC.
You do want to give the Russians opportunity to run away…
This.
why havent they finished off the bridge into crimea?
What Matt says about leaving an intact avenue for retreat to encourage Russian troops to run should Ukraine advance into Crimea seems on the money to me.
I also believe that, whilst the bridge's road surface has been patched up, the rail line is still non operational and since Russian military logistics are almost entirely rail-dependent it's still effectively out of action from that standpoint.
The repair to the rail section is apparently currently under way and should be done by July, which means that the Ukrainians have a few months left to plot precisely how they intend to roger it this time around.
I suspect the UA will form up small, well equipped battlegroups. 4 or 6 tanks, same number of Bradley / Humvee plus associated infantry backed with artillery
Then do a number of smaller attacks to try to stretch the numbers of capable RA assets over a long front line. Then when one attack makes and holds a decent pocket, push reserves into those areas, whilst still maintaining sparodic probing manoeuvres elsewhere, so if the RA move numbers up to stop any further advances, they have less elsewhere.
But it wont happen for a month as you need firm ground to enable vehicles to move off roads at sensible speed without the fear of getting stuck. Plus it is impossible to mine every feild, whereas roads and tracks are easy to defend
DT78
Free Memberwhy havent they finished off the bridge into crimea? they showed they have the capability to damage it, why not keep hitting it and disrupting supplies? Wouldn’t it make life a lot harder for RU if it was down / damaged again?
There's a few likely explanations, one is that they showed they can damage it but we don't know how easily they can repeat it (or exceed it, which is really what's needed). So it might just be capability. Equally, it might be the other way and they're now content that they can close it pretty much at will, in which case doing it now might be a wasted opportunity, while doing it at a really critical time could have a massive effect.
I'm pretty sure that it's too hard to blow up the bridge, otherwise they'd be doing it on a regular basis
This official MOD video is a good insight into the training the Ukrainian Challenger 2 crews are getting. Professionally delivered, high quality training, highly motivated (and in some cases battle hardened) students and top class equipment. These guys are going to be a Russian nightmare when they are let off the leash.
I know there aren't many of them, but they'll be punching well above their weight and together with the Leopards, Bradleys and other Western AFVs they will have a massive effect come the UA offensive.
The tanks are slowly arriving- but the numbers are pitiful 🤷♂️
I’m pretty sure that it’s too hard to blow up the bridge, otherwise they’d be doing it on a regular basis
I guess so, and also as mentioned above, its the rail part of the bridge thats more strategically important and leave the road semi-operational for people who want to flee back to russia.
They can always take a pot-shot at it again if they rebuild the rail link, it doesnt take much to knacker a rail track as opposed to taking the whole bridge out.
The tanks are slowly arriving- but the numbers are pitiful
I *think*
- they were designed about quality over quantity on the battlefield. They can shoot further, in all conditions, 'see' at night, move faster, further and much much better armour and survivability.
- if you add up the numbers, they do come to a good few. If deployed well, with the multiple other supplied vehicles and infantry support, it's going to ruin more than a few Russians day.
- there's not a huge distance between front line and south coast or Russian border. I think there's going to be a lot of moving around at speed, making use of the longer range artillery and rockets (etc), while trying to move so quickly the Russians start running and cannot sit down until they have sand/mud flats underfoot.
Yeah, they are western approach- few, high quality, survivable, very expensive, hard to use well, and have to be used well to be worth using.
The main problem with that is when you just don't have enough to actually get them in the right place. When they are in the right place, they can do the impossible pretty much. It's not necessarily better or worse but ukraine does have a really good track record of fighting where they want to, so it should suit them. They'd be close to useless for defending the entire front against a clever enemy, because you'd just avoid them. And that's a real shortcoming, but it shouldn't really apply here
It's kind of the T34 vs panther nerdfest, except with the high quality tank done right and supported right.
I wonder what the psychological effect of the Western tanks will be on the Russian tank crews and force?
The Russian tank crews don't live in a vacuum and they've seen the damage western weapons have inflicted so far. It's going to be bloody uncomfortable being in a Russian T series tank and knowing that even if you score a bit on a Challenger/ Leopard it likey won't immobilise it and its likely to illicit a devastating response from the other tank.
Add in the longer range, accuracy and far better night abilities of the Western tanks and it'll be terrifying to be sat in an old T72 or whatever.
I wonder what the psychological effect of the Western tanks will be on the Russian tank crews and force?
They're clearly not wanting to experience the depleted uranium rounds...
I know from what I've read on here and other sites that the western MBT's are far superior in every way. Better armaments, better speed, longer range etc etc. But god forbid one was hit by a round fired from a Russian T72, what would the likely damage be? By all reports the Challengers and Leopards have great protection, but what would be the effects on the guys inside. I assume not killed, but badly injured? Too disabled to continue fighting, or would the tank and occupants just shrug it off and continue?
The Bradley IFV with 25mm chain gun destroyed T55s in Iraq with a tungsten round. Russian crews will know this and the thought of a western MBT with 120mm gun will be a little concerning 🙂
Too disabled to continue fighting, or would the tank and occupants just shrug it off and continue?
It'd probably keep going. A Challenger 2 was hit by 14 RPGs and an anti-tank guided missile; the optics were damaged so the driver got stuck in a ditch but they were able to sit tight and wait for recovery. Nobody was hurt and the tank was repaired within a few hours
A Russian RPG 29 has penetrated the front of a Challenger 2, causing injuries, but that was 15 years ago and improvements will have been made. Equally the RPG 29 has been superceded by the by the RPG 30 and 32 but none have a range of more than a few hundred metres
There are something like 2000 Leopards in Europe. How many are Ukraine getting, less than 100? Germany is sending 18, its pitiful.
There are something like 2000 Leopards in Europe. How many are Ukraine getting, less than 100? Germany is sending 18, its pitiful.
It does seem like a low number to my eyes, but I'm no expert and I imagine the tank operators needs proper training, and also have the logistics to back them up in terms of ammo, fuel, repairs/servicing, medics, and other supporting millitary personel... it's not just a case of sending 2000 tanks to the front lines.
It needs to be a well thought out, backed up by logistics/supply chain , operation, otherwise you'd just be sending tanks in to get blown up.
I saw an interesting documentary where a Ukranian tank commander was showing the journalist around his battered old T-64. It had suffered two close artillery strikes, both of which had caused concussion for the crew and damaged the tank.
The era on the front had detonated and was yet to be replaced but the crew had bodged some hand made era for the side panels. There was also a hole in the barrel and they were waiting for nightfall to pull the tank out and get it repaired, it looked like something out of a Mad Max movie.
The most interesting thing was when he pointed out the ballistics / optics computer, which he said "cost a million". Probably multiple times the value of the tank itself.
I've heard that the modern mbt's that are being supplied could be based in the North, warding off any potential attacks from Belarus and freeing up the old Soviet era tanks currently guarding that border.
Old tanks with big guns but with modern optics can still be effective, especially when probably less than one percent of shells fired from tanks are aimed at other tanks.
It wouldn't surprise me if the new tanks don't see much action, but are deployed as a deterrent in the North and as a defensive reserve around Kyiv.
futonrivercrossing
Free Member
There are something like 2000 Leopards in Europe. How many are Ukraine getting, less than 100? Germany is sending 18, its pitiful.
I'm not disagreeing at all, but is there some (justifiable??) concern about a large number of western MBTs falling into Russian hands?
I’m not disagreeing at all, but is there some (justifiable??) concern about a large number of western MBTs falling into Russian hands?
Challenger 2, Leopard, etc are old tech now, although they will have systems that are of interest to Russia. More MBTs will mean that mutual support is better and this might reduce the risk of capture
Russia has bought western military tech, e.g. French sights have been found in Russian tanks captured by Ukraine and while this export market has been closed by recent sanctions the EU is now looking to close sanctions bypassing
UK is already building Challenger 3 but MBTs are something that we only have because everyone else has them; the MBTs primary role is to fight other MBTs. Ukraine is only Challenger 2's second war outing, Iraq 2003 was the first and they weren't used in Afghanistan (they didn't have MBTs)
Western MBTs were taken to Afghanistan but primarily used for their sensors (optical, etc) and comms abilities