Three two-minute reads that may be of interest:
Today's latest US list of security assistance...
Western MBTs will benefit Ukraine and the west now and in the future... https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-supply-of-advanced-tanks-will-give-kyiv-an-edge-over-russia-and-move-it-closer-to-nato-197592
Russia's information war is framed to bolster the cause at home and to cause western indecision... https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-as-russia-falters-on-the-battlefield-putin-is-trying-to-raise-the-stakes-197937
I’ve heard on a podcast this morning that Germany will dig its heals in. Also Germany is still not living up to its 2% NATO commitment 🤷♂️
We’ll see what happens at Ramstein I guess.
Judging by the way so many countries are getting their announcements out early ahead of Ramstein and being widely praised for their largesse it seems like a coordinated move to heap as much pressure on Scholtz as possible for today.
His 'only if the US sends Abrams' gambit was in such bad faith, the Abrams and the Leopard are completely different in the the kind of logistical train they require (the Abrams runs off bloody jet fuel FFS!) and there are genuinely logical reasons not to send them that just don't apply to the Leopard 2's.
I'm half expecting several countries with Leopards (probably lead by Poland) to announce that they're just going to send them anyway and to hell with the consequences.
It looks like the relatively mild winter has scotched the notion of a winter offensive that I and may others expected to see and all eyes are now on the expected Spring offensives once mud season starts to end, hence the urgency, vehicles will need to be pledged now if Ukraine is to have them delivered and crews trained in time for the Spring.
Yeah, Germany keep moving the goalposts, initially it was no to exporting Leopards, then we’ll only do it if other countries send tanks - so Britain is sending tanks. Now Germany has moved the goalposts and said, we’ll export only if the US send Abrams 🤷♂️. Dickcheeses!
the Abrams and the Leopard are completely different in the the kind of logistical train they require (the Abrams runs off bloody jet fuel FFS!) and there are genuinely logical reasons not to send them that just don’t apply to the Leopard 2’s.
It's a turbine engine but it can run on a wide range of fuels including diesel, it doesn't actually need jet fuel (which is basically just kerosene anyway). They apparently need a huge amount of fuel so they need a huge logistics train of fuel trucks, etc.
The engines will need specialist technicians and equipment for major overhauls, more like helicopter engines than truck engines. Probably, the powertrains will need to be shipped back to Poland for overhauls rather than setting up facilities in Ukraine whereas regular diesel engines should be able to be serviced in existing Ukrainian depots.
Also, the U.S. spec Abrams have depleted uranium armour. That's subject to export restrictions so they would have to be rearmoured before they could be exported to Ukraine.
The Scholtz thing is really perplexing. Like, really. Germany changed teh fabric of teh countries constitution to send offensive weapons to Ukraine. Hence, teh first offer of bandages and helmets. Germany has been in a peace keeping role for ever so actively supporting the export of offensive weapons needed the constitutional change.
So, the missiles, bombs, Gepards etc are being sent to theatre. Why not Leopards (nearly typed leotards.... )
Are they mighty in name only but actually rubbish? Have super secret stuff onboard as a risk if captured? Stalling for training crews? No cupholders? Just what is the issue? I actually hope other countries send them as they can talk about it afterwards but they are needed, now. And don't get me started on Swiss selective neutrality and blocking ammo for ukraine either.
Just, what is the actual issue besides lacking the cahones to get it done. Sanna Marin and Katja Kallas have bigger balls than him right now. Playing the "after you, Claude" with America and the Abrahams is just damn pathetic.
No cupholders?
At least our Challengers are equipped with "boiling vessels" so the Ukrainians will be able to engage the enemy having been fortified by a nice cup of Earl Grey.
At least our Challengers are equipped with “boiling vessels” so the Ukrainians will be able to engage the enemy having been fortified by a nice cup of Earl Grey.
I *really* want this to be true. Tanks with a kettle, bone china and Earl Grey listening to Vivalidi before blowing the enemy to smithereens.
It's true, all British tanks famously have a some kind of kettle installed.
listening to Vivalidi
Vivaldi! Pah!. Surely Elgar or Holst dear boy
Er, Wagner..?
Sanna Marin and Katja Kallas have bigger balls than him right now
Quite.
U.S. spec Abrams have depleted uranium armour. That’s subject to export restrictions so they would have to be rearmoured before they could be exported to Ukraine.
I've never understood this. If the US want to help Ukraine, surely they can change their export restrictions?
Sanna Marin and Katja Kallas have bigger balls than him right now
Seems to be the case that when push comes to shove (not that way, stop s****ing) the women have bigger balls than the men.
I’ve never understood this. If the US want to help Ukraine, surely they can change their export restrictions?
It's not just politics and export controls. It's about if (when) one of these falls into Russian hands, and they are able to do a full technical exploitation of the armour to understand its capabilities and vulnerabilities. This would obv have major implications for US armour in any future confrontation with Russia or countries equipped by them. Weapons intelligence specialists on both sides are constantly trying to obtain high end enemy kit, covertly or overtly to understand it and develop weapons or countermeasures to defeat it.
Will it end up with Poland sending their leopards and the yanks replacing them with Abram's?
The process for that has been ongoing since August. Needs Abram training to complete in Poland, and agreement from Germany for logistical support on the Leopards for a third country. Germany going from non-interventionist country militarily, to supporting tanks in a country at war with Russia… it’s a huge step that’s hard to understand here in the UK (and frustrating to the point of anger for many in countries to the East of it). Germany will only move under cover of an international agreement… so that it is the UN (impossible) or NATO (incendiary) making a move, not Germany deciding unilaterally. They have good historical reasons to act this way. The “world” needs to act if it wants Germany to risk its tanks in the war (even if they only made rather than own those tanks).
It’s about if (when) one of these falls into Russian hands, and they are able to do a full technical exploitation of the armour to understand its capabilities and vulnerabilities.
Thanks, I realise that with regard to technology, and I can understand it with reactive armour, but I'd assumed (perhaps wrongly) that DU armour was just plate, so not secret. But on reflection, they probably wouldn't have export control if that was all.
It’s about if (when) one of these falls into Russian hands, and they are able to do a full technical exploitation of the armour to understand its capabilities and vulnerabilities
With my paranoia hat on, is this why Germany are making provision of M1 Abrams to Ukraine a condition of the supply of Leopard 2s? Is Germany in cahoots with Russia? Sounds a bit improbable and I certainly hope not!
Is Germany in cahoots with Russia?
No. It doesn’t want it be at war with Germany. It’s already done more to support Ukraine than most countries, and changed its post world war laws to allow it to do so.
One of the many reasons this war has been such a disaster for Russia is that a lot of their shiniest, newest kit has been captured and (unofficially) delivered straight into the eager hands of NATO R&D teams.
Hence why, even now, there is a degree of reluctance to hand over the really really new NATO kit, the challenger 2 we are sending is due to be replaced by the 3 for instance.
War is messy and there's no way to ensure that anything you send won't end up being poked in a facility east of the Urals.
Still better than Ukraine losing though.
end up being poked in a facility east of the Urals
And nobody wants to be poked east of the Urals!
And nobody wants to be poked east of the Urals!
It's that level of accuracy that's losing them the war
Thanks, I realise that with regard to technology, and I can understand it with reactive armour, but I’d assumed (perhaps wrongly) that DU armour was just plate,
I dont know about DU but the Abrams do use a composite armour developed from the Chobham armour. Some sort of mix of metal plus ceramics plus possible other stuff which is secret (assuming Russian/Chinese spies havent nicked it) and so isnt something you would want getting into Russian hands.
However the Challenger 2s also use it.
This is a best estimate of relative government-to-government contributions to Ukraine. It's difficult to compare countries because of the way that each country counts aid and the figures are due to be updated next month.
It's worth noting that some of the figures are future commitments which inflate figures beyond what has been seen in Ukraine to date. For example the EU committed €18bn in December but the first €3bn won't be paid until next week
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
I dont know about DU but the Abrams do use a composite armour developed from the Chobham armour
I'm not a MBT expert, merely an armchair observer, but there are various systems that Abrams have that are pretty capable https://www.army-technology.com/projects/abrams-m1a2-sepv3-main-battle-tank/
Abrams could be used but I don't know what would need to be removed to make export palatable. Most systems, whether armour or tech, will be more advanced than anything in the RF.
Crew safety is massive in the west and the only Challenger 2 killed was a tragic mistake by another Challenger 2 crew in Iraq. The open commander's hatch contributed to that tragedy. Another took 14 RPG rounds and an ATGM and only needed 6 hours of repairs.
As far as maintenance is concerned, engines and transmissions are in "power packs" in MBTs. A lot of in-field maintenance will be swapping modules and packs and more detailed support could theoretically be undertaken in better-equipped facilities elsewhere
Well, well ... Channel 4 just asked (20/1/2023) the Ukrainian minister whether it was true that about 100 Ukrainian arm personnel died everyday recently. The Ukrainian minister said it was true. No wonder the war is continuing because all the western propaganda have censored out the casualty number of the Ukrainian arm personnel.
It looks like the war is not going to stop anytime soon.
p/s: heavy tanks will be the sitting duck in the field of Ukraine/Russia. That's why Germany and UK refuse to supply them immediately. Notice the Ukrainian minister now trying arm twist UK into supplying them with their latest Challenger tanks? If those tanks are captured by the Russia, all form of future advantages will be gone. Hence, Germany & UK know that it is not a good idea to send them their own tanks.
.
Meanwhile back in the real world and also last June on the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61742736
A senior Ukrainian presidential aide has told the BBC that between 100 and 200 Ukrainian troops are being killed on the front line every day.
Meanwhile back in the real world and also last June on the BBC
I know, right. Absolutely heart breaking
chewkw
Free MemberChannel 4 just asked <snip> the western propaganda have censored
Asking the question is a weird way to censor something.
No wonder the war is continuing because all the western propaganda have censored out the casualty number of the Ukrainian arm personnel.
I was very much aware of how many Ukrainian casualties there have been, and learnt about it from the mainstream media
all the western propaganda have censored out the casualty number of the Ukrainian arm personnel.
That statement doesn't stand 10 seconds of scrutiny.
From the Guardian last November:
"America’s top general has estimated that 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and that Kyiv’s armed forces have “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.
Gen Mark Milley also suggested that as many as 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed after being caught up in the conflict"
There are dozens and dozens of similar articles from Western media if you could be bothered to look. I know that doesn't fit your narrative. Western media is far from perfect but if you are really interested in media censorship - take a look at Russia.
Don’t waste your time on the troll 🤷♂️
It’s not just politics and export controls. It’s about if (when) one of these falls into Russian hands, and they are able to do a full technical exploitation of the armour to understand its capabilities and vulnerabilities. This would obv have major implications for US armour in any future confrontation with Russia or countries equipped by them.
At the very least the Russians have a 1990's vintage M2 they have been studying for years.
I remember reading a post on here linking to an article where an American NATO commander recalled being shown around a Russian base and the M2 was displayed as a bit of a "f*** you" to him and the US.
Who knows what they've got hold of in the years since?
However,yeah, it's obviously valid to keep as much tech hidden from Russia and their Chinese besties as possible of course.👍
I remember reading a post on here linking to an article where an American NATO commander recalled being shown around a Russian base and the M2 was displayed as a bit of a “f*** you” to him and the US.
Mark Hertling I think!
Speaking of which, this tweet from yesterday amused me very much:
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1616143264045727762?t=FLongk9vlvlsBuF8zYrdJw&s=19
At the very least the Russians have a 1990’s vintage M2 they have been studying for years.
I remember reading a post on here linking to an article where an American NATO commander recalled being shown around a Russian base and the M2 was displayed as a bit of a “f*** you” to him and the US.
M2? As in Bradley?
However,yeah, it’s obviously valid to keep as much tech hidden from Russia and their Chinese besties as possible of course.
Its a tricky balancing act. The classic example is the sidewinder.
It first got used in action by the Taiwanese. In one of the mini conflicts their jets had a lower max altitude than the Chinese jets and it was proving a significant disadvantage since the Chinese could pick when to fight.
So the Americans shipped out some technicians and first generation sidewinders out to Taiwan at which point the Chinese got a very unpleasant surprise.
One of the missiles though hit a Chinese jet without detonating and the pilot managed to fly home with it embedded in the plane and whilst he went for some new trousers the technicians got to work.
The Russians credit that one missile as being a massive boost for their entire missile project.
So on the one hand you risk them getting a massive boost to their armaments industry but on the other hand a weapon which isnt used for fear of it being copied is of limited use (doomsday weapons aside).
The flipside of course is its a safe bet several of those US cargo planes havent been empty when flying home.
Its a tricky balancing act. The classic example is the sidewinder.
I remember reading that Britain and Germany both invented radar jamming chaff (small strips of tinfoil that aircraft scatter to generate radar clutter) in WW2, but neither side deployed it immediately because they didn't want the other side to know about it and then use it against them. Not sure if it's true, but I'm sure that similar things happen all the time where both sides discover some trick but hold it back to avoid alerting the other side.
Enigma codes
They had to sacrifice some conveys otherwise Donitz would have guessed why they ships all turned round instead of sailing into a wolf pack.
snip...neither side deployed (chaff) immediately because they didn’t want the other side to know about it and then use it against them. Not sure if it’s true...
It is, but as radar systems developed better resolution it was felt that chaff was less of a problem and could be used
One of the options for Zuni rockets as supplied to Ukraine by the US is a chaff dispenser. I don't know if that payload is in the assistance packages though
Enigma codes
They had to sacrifice some conveys otherwise Donitz would have guessed why they ships all turned round instead of sailing into a wolf pack.
On this note, I'm very suspicious about why the highly vaunted Russian cyberwarfare abilities never appeared. My suspicion is that the NSA etc. were watching and had probably infiltrated the Russian systems but didn't want to tip their hand so they let the Russian botnets keep operating. In the weeks before the Russian invasion, the U.S. posted detailed plans of the Russian operation, making it obvious that Russian systems had been hacked. Those details would have alerted Russia that the U.S. had breached security, but the U.S. knew this so they served as a deliberate warning to Russia that their security was compromised. Once the invasion started, I'm guessing that the U.S. just crippled the Russian cyberwarfare capabilities, but there's nothing Russia can do about it without acknowledging their covert activities.
The Ukrainian Ambassador compared Challenger 1 to a T72 on R4 today. Yes it's older technology but it's 20 to 30 years younger than a T72. Gift horses and all that.
