.
Against a nuclear power that just isn’t going to happen.
Agreed. And apologies for typing 'their' rather than they're. I mean 'there' 😉
I don’t know if this has been posted already but after hearing the director interviewed on five live I’ve just watched this and it’s a must see documentary on iplayer
It’s both terrifying and really uplifting at the same time. Filmed on the frontline in Ukraine as they fight to retake Kherson, the spirit of these people - who are teachers, mechanics and policemen, not trained soldiers - is unbelievable! It’s inspiring stuff.
Lots of chatter that whilst the RF have been decimating themselves chasing a pyrrhic victory in Soledar, the UA is on the outskirts of Kreminna. As the main supply lines into Severodonetsk and the Northern Donbas go through here, Kreminna falling would mean that the RF would find it very difficult to sustain their presence in Severodonetsk, as well as Bakhmut and ironically Soledar too.
Now that the freeze is allowing much easier manoeuvre we can hope to see the UA make their superior weapons, training, tactics and morale count..
I don’t think Kreminna is so important supply wise since the fall of Kupyiansk in the Autumn when the train line from the north was cut. Supplies now flow westwards from Russia.
In many ways, the UAF successes make their job harder. The front line has shortened considerably, allowing more depth to the Russian defences.
Abrams production numbers is about 3x that of Leopards so maybe we’ll see a few of those
Abrams aren’t heading to Ukraine...snip
As I said a couple of days ago, "The Leopard 2 are the obvious fit in Ukraine...", however, although Germany has signalled that other nations can supply their L2s, Germany hasn't agreed to supply any MBTs from its national stock. I don't know whether this refusal includes parts, etc, but if so that would represent a significant problem.
Chancellor Scholtz hasn't publicly agreed to anything, his deputy handled that, although it will be difficult to climb down now
Germany has said that it wants to see agreement from Ukraine's main allies and, by any measure of quantity or $$, that's the US and UK. The UK has said that it could send 10 Challenger 2 MBTs and the US is yet to decide, although they are supplying Poland. There's a big meeting on the 22nd in Germany to decide
So, yes, as things stand a few Abrams would "free the Leopards". I think we're both in agreement that Abrams is too complex in a variety of ways
Yup, the Abrams is a hell of a machine but almost comically hard to keep on the front lines from a maintenance perspective. It's very much the product of a military that sometimes feels like an awesome globe-spanning logistics operation that occasionally shoots something.
Whilst I must say I was expecting to have seen it by now, I'm still anticipating something from the Ukrainians soon, all that new kit and trained troops they've received recently have been noticeable by their absence in the Bahmut/Soledar area, they're clearly being held back for something.
Now that we are sending challenger tanks surely the leopards will follow.
You'd hope so. UK has been considering sending Challenger all week, it's now formal...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-14-january-2023
Yeah watched that binners, it was amazing. I'm not sure if empathy is the right word bit you could recognise the characters amongst the motley crew of volunteers, people you know, people on here even, (especially when they were tired and squabbling amongst themselves!)
You could feel their exhaustion though and how mentally draining and psycologicaly traumatising it was for them, and you realised that the Russian strategy is relentless, throwing conscripts into the meat grinder on the crude basis that there are more of them than there are Ukranians, hoping that numbers will ultimately tell.
I suppose in that light we either support Ukraine with more effective equipment and resources or watch on until their capacity to absorb the relentless punishment dealt out to them eventually wanes.
It is the choice given to us by Putin.
Definitely one of the occasions I'm happy my assumptions were wrong.
Fair play HMG.
RUSI article in the Guardian pointing out that the western allies need to invest in building / modernising tanks, low loaders, bridging and breaching vehicles etc. to replace deliveries to Ukraine.
Personally, I think the UK should send 100 Challenger 2 plus associated vehicles immediately and accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them. The short term gap in NATO commitment can be covered by US units with Abrahms.
accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them
Isnt the Challenger 3 program a case of converting the existing challenger 2 tanks rather than new ones. So not replacements as such.
Whilst I must say I was expecting to have seen it by now, I’m still anticipating something from the Ukrainians soon, all that new kit and trained troops they’ve received recently have been noticeable by their absence in the Bahmut/Soledar area, they’re clearly being held back for something.
I think the tweet earlier about slow attrition of the Russians, coupled with some logistics organisation when it's not a mudfest, with a few rested troops means it's probably a time to not rush in. But, we're all waiting for the right alignment of stars to enable something to happen. 🤞
Personally, I think the UK should send 100 Challenger 2 plus associated vehicles immediately and accelerate the Challenger 3 program dramatically to replace them
BAE has sold up the last site that manufactured the C2 (Vickers). Losing capability and knowledge. So don't expect C3 to come any time soon. Look at the mess GD are making of FRES
.
The company that bought the Vickers plant the Armstrong Works in Newcastle where the challengers where built has been awarded the contract to build the challenger 3 turrets
Yes I was aware of that... Unfortunately welding some plate and small machining on turret, is not the same as design,build and assembly of the complete vehicle, which is what used to get done at Newcastle.
Any way. Good news that these are being sent to Ukraine
Apparently we will be sending some apache helicopters as well.
Warsaw and Helsinki want to supply Leopard tanks but this requires approval from Berlin as Germany holds the export licence.
And according to Sky news, "Many of the UK's 227 Challenger 2 tanks are not in a condition to be deployed"
Apparently we will be sending some apache helicopters as well.
Source?
Given that they say this, I'm not gonna assume it's a reliable source.
The Apache choppers are equipped with the same engine as a Rolls Royce and can hit speeds above 180mph, whilst also carrying a range of artillery which can wipe out multiple targets in seconds
UK sending Apache helicopters with deadly missiles to Ukraine in 'game changer'
Well, there description isn't so much totally wrong as clumsy nonsense.
The Apache AH Mk1 is powered by two Rolls Royce-Turbomeca RTM322 turboshaft engines.
If we are sending them, usual intense training beforehand disclaimers apply.
It was not so much the Rolls Royce reference but this
carrying a range of artillery
Which set my teeth on edge. 'Artillery' my hairy arse!
Oh lord, I didn't see that. I did see my hideous use of the wrong "there" though. #theshame
MOD have apparently denied the Apache story. Seemingly Ben Wallace is going to make another aid announcement tomorrow which will clarify.
The rumour has got Igor Girkin and others pretty riled though.
14 Challengers and 30 Sp90 self propelled guns according to Sky News.
No mention of helos, they wouldn't send Apaches anyways. Too long to train, too unreliable, some have crashed, they need maintenance constantly. The WO had to be able to do some magic with their eyes to do with near and far distance iirc that only some people can do.
Wagner seems to have made some sort of gains toward capturing Soledar, but it seems to have seriously depleted them.
There's a lot of internal politics at play with Prighorzin desperate to prove his abilities
Not sure putin wants him to do too well though.
Implies to me that Russia may not be able to hold what they've taken if Ukraine can/want to launch a counter offensive there.
And while russias tactics of sending wave after wave of ill prepared conscripts at the front line, have seen insane losses, Ukraines losses have been pretty horrific too.
https://twitter.com/RiqaqAbdullah/status/1614397927715119104?t=_8ug2VEgvL-Cn7f17TqT7g&s=19
And according to Sky news, “Many of the UK’s 227 Challenger 2 tanks are not in a condition to be deployed”
We only need 14 working ones to send right?
Rheinmetal are saying that German Leopard 2’s will not be ready to send until 2024 🤷♂️ - again send the bloody working ones, each country that has them only needs to commit 10% of their force, for heavens sake 🙄 FFS - not as if Russia is going to invade aNATO country any time soon 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
Politico reporting polling of EU public support for Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-europe-support-74-percent-polls/
Most people support the EU’s actions in spite of being aware of the war’s consequences on their daily life, with almost two-thirds of those polled believing their life will change because of the war in Ukraine.
Pretty sure the west are sticking to a greyish line regarding supplying defensive military equipment, the minute we start supplying clearly offensive weaponry escalation with Russia could ensue, so doubt we'll see any Apache or the likes heading over soon.
It's just getting more depressing over there though, every day it's more and more misery, all the Ukrainians are getting is death and destruction in their own country, and on the other side, Russia don't seem to care about the numbers of casualties they suffer as they just lie about it anyway, i honestly thought this might calm down if there was a way of backing out for Russia without losing face, but it just keeps going, and we're only a couple of months away from better weather and conditions.
honestly thought this might calm down if there was a way of backing out for Russia without losing face
Putin wants Ukraine entirely, he's hoping that the west will tire of supporting Ukraine, but he was never going look for an exit that didn't involve him ruling kyiv
all that new kit and trained troops they’ve received recently have been noticeable by their absence in the Bahmut/Soledar area, they’re clearly being held back for something
Whilst it would be great if Ukraine mounted another surprise counter-attack and cut-off Crimea or something I'm not sure where you make that claim from. The snippets we see on the news and other sources is hardly a complete picture of what forces Ukraine has deployed there.
I'd love to see a few kilos of offal dumped over Nebenzya's desk at the UN, or, ideally over him at the desk in the UN.....
And another grumble about twitter.. Elon really has seemed to have done a job on this after he bought it. The reporting from Ukraine has changed, no notifications form people I follow, loads of crap pushed from people I have never heard with....
I don't want to make this a twitter thread but it really has changed a lot. Annoyingly.
Pretty sure the west are sticking to a greyish line regarding supplying defensive military equipment, the minute we start supplying clearly offensive weaponry escalation with Russia could ensue, so doubt we’ll see any Apache or the likes heading over soon
There isn't really a difference between defensive and offensive weapons themselves, at least with tactical weapons. If you're on the offensive, all your weapons are offensive weapons. If the other side is on the offensive, all your weapons are defensive. The major reasons, as I understand it, for not supplying Apaches are that the training and maintenance would be difficult and they wouldn't really be much use without Ukrainian air superiority. HIMARS and spotter drones are much more useful to Ukraine.
honestly thought this might calm down if there was a way of backing out for Russia without losing face
There is no way for Putin to avoid losing face, he bet the farm on annexing Ukraine and failed spectacularly. He humiliated himself with his stupidity and incompetence. When people talk about a face-saving exit strategy for Putin, they really mean a Ukrainian capitulation. Russia invaded Ukraine. Why do people think Ukraine owes Putin anything?
I don’t want to make this a twitter thread but it really has changed a lot. Annoyingly.
I don't like blocking people, even one's I really dislike, but my timeline has become chock full of *#@£s and I have actively search out info to get up to date on Ukraine
There is no way for Putin to avoid losing face, he bet the farm on annexing Ukraine and failed spectacularly. He humiliated himself with his stupidity and incompetence. When people talk about a face-saving exit strategy for Putin, they really mean a Ukrainian capitulation. Russia invaded Ukraine. Why do people think Ukraine owes Putin anything?
This is exactly it. Putin and Russia have now created a complete 'nothing but success' requirement, and Ukraine and rest of the world is not responsible for giving him some space.
The ONLY time we should have an influence on Russia is around nuclear security - they will have massive issues now maintaining not only missiles but ships and subs with nuclear on board. They have struggled for years to maintain and secure them, this now creates the opportunity for someone in Russian state or terrorists to make use of the weapons, and long term a huge environmental issue.
I don’t like blocking people, even one’s I really dislike,
The only way to make Twitter useful is to ruthlessly block trolls and shitposters. Parody accounts are a different matter, some of them are pretty funny, but anyone who just shitposts all the time isn't worth following. I blocked Elon Musk long ago, he doesn't seem to have anything worthwhile to say.
not sure where you make that claim from.
It was an informed hunch based on what we've seem Ukraine do in the past, how they've used fresh resources before what's coming out via various OSINT channels and how the current situation is being interpreted by the analysts who've had a good track record on the conflict so far.
Since none of us have a direct line to the inside of Valerii Zaluzhnyi's head that's the best I can do.
At the time I posted there was a sense that the Russian assault on Bahmut had culminated and the ground as frozen. Now It's 8 degrees and raining in Kherson with temperatures due to stay above freezing all week so a combination of mud and the worsening situation around Bahmut and Soledar since then may have altered the Ukrainian's calculations.
Time will tell.
The only way to make Twitter useful is to ruthlessly block trolls and shitposters.
I'm confused. The only stuff I see which is not from accounts I follow is advertising. I've never seen a need to block anyone.
I have actively search out info to get up to date on Ukraine
What other way is there apart from following those who post about Ukraine?
You search say #Savtove, then click on Latest, except Elongated has removed the Latest button which makes it annoying
You search say #Savtove, then click on Latest, except Elongated has removed the Latest button which makes it annoying
It's still there for me - just checked, you had me worried there! I use the 'latest' button loads. I've had a dormant Twitter account for years, but hardly ever used it until relatively recently. I now use it almost solely to monitor news from Ukraine. That is pretty much all I see, and I can't say I've noticed a drop off. With one or two exceptions, I don't really follow celebs or public figures unless they are also trusted commentators on Ukraine.
It’s still there for me – just checked
Still there for me too.
Still there on Android, gone on web and iPhone
Time for a twitter thread 🤷♂️
