I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
I think it makes for a decent spy novel or film, but in all the history of either the US or CCCP launching weapons mistakenly, or systems "seeing" things that aren't there, the people in the systems on both sides have pretty much always prevented it. It's really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
You're letting your imagination run away with itself. All countries know that aircraft and missiles sometimes go off course and have accidents. A single stray missile landing in the countryside is not a big deal. If it was dozens of missiles or a concerted attempt at violating NATO airspace with multiple armed aircraft, the escalation level would ratchet up. However, the escalation ladder doesn't go directly from "Global Peace" to "WW3" without any intermediate steps.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1592602484060884993
I think it makes for a decent spy novel or film, but in all the history of either the US or CCCP launching weapons mistakenly, or systems “seeing” things that aren’t there, the people in the systems on both sides have pretty much always prevented it. It’s really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
In those instances missiles were nuclear armed ICBM's where they have 20 or so mins to decide if WW3 was starting and they needed to retaliate before they got wiped out and it never happened. They were not dealing with an astray cruise/AA missile. I dont think WW3 will start because of a non nuclear missile.
It’s really not that easy to start a massive intercontinental war, regardless of what you might think.
You’re letting your imagination run away with itself. All countries know that aircraft and missiles sometimes go off course and have accidents. A single stray missile landing in the countryside is not a big deal.
I dont think WW3 will start because of a non nuclear missile.
Phew! For a moment I thought roast meat was menu if Poland retaliates in a big way.
Thank god for Guardian and Biden admin for the clarification.
You know we are raring to go ...
That Lat Lon post is interesting - and yes I've checked the actual numbers. Hell of a coincidence otherwise.
The Polish Prime Minister has now announced the likelihood of an unfortunate accident of Ukrainian missiles launched in defence finding their way over the Polish Border, with no evidence of antagonism aimed at Poland by Russia.
Excellent, I can put the white sheets back on the bed tonight.
That Lat Lon post is interesting – and yes I’ve checked the actual numbers. Hell of a coincidence otherwise.
What number are you referring to slowoldchap? (edited: I see the data input is wrong) They are raring to go you know ...
The Polish Prime Minister has now announced the likelihood of an unfortunate accident of Ukrainian missiles launched in defence finding their way over the Polish Border, with no evidence of antagonism aimed at Poland by Russia.
Is he changing the information? I bet he is raring to go.
With the propaganda in full swing on both sides I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
Oh calm yerself 😆 To think NATO or the US and its allies would launch a full spread of nuclear missiles at Russia knowing Russia would respond in kind, is just beyond fantasy.
Besides, the Daily Mail are suggesting it was fired by the Ukraine, so it must be true
I think NATO are very keen to play this down publicly, no matter what evidence the6 have. Conversations directly with Russia may have been somewhat different….
It’s almost certainly just a missile that suffered a failure of the guidance system. It wasn’t fired from Russian territory. It may have been fired from Belarus at a Ukrainian target, it may have been fired by Ukraine as an anti-missile weapon. The idea that NATO is going to go to war over a single missile that landed miles from any actual target, almost certainly by accident, is just silly.
Biden certainly chose his words carefully... (embarrassingly almost)
As mentioned above NATO has multiple escalation steps, and Russia really, really doesn’t want NATO any more involved than it already is..
What "Russia" wants or doesn't seems to have little bearing on Putin.
Nato are playing it down, but Zelensky is trying his best to maintain blame on Russia.
Of course, he wants Nato involved, and perhaps isn’t considering the big picture.
Thank god for Guardian and Biden admin for the clarification.
You're absolutely right. We should check in with Breitbart, Uncle WooWoo, the Leyton Orient supporters' forum and that well known expert @GaryBrexit42917 on twitter for the full story.
I am not surprised if a single misfired missile could trigger WWIII.
Possibly one of those WW2 era guided missiles that you suggested might have been launched yesterday?
Anyway, there have been several incidents during the Cold War whereby aircraft and missiles have strayed into hostile territory, the result usually involved a lot of diplomatic toing and froing to mollify the injured party. Two notable incidents are linked below:
In 1989 a Soviet Mig-23 crashed in Belgium killing one person on the ground. The pilot had ejected over Poland and the errant Mig continued on it's journey until it ran out of fuel.
In 1966 a Yak-28 strayed into West-German airspace before crashing.
What was Gary’s assessment btw?
There’s this shoot down as well from the height of the Cold War
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-shoot-down-u-s-jet
What was Gary’s assessment btw?
Illegal immigrants and Brussels. Probably.
Anyway, there have been several incidents during the Cold War whereby
and as someone pointed out earlier an incident where a hungry Ostrich got shot leading to WW I (if only they'd had the foresight to call it that ?)
or as is often said (apparently) the cause of the Great War was noone trying hard enough not to have one?
Putin is either insane or doing a good impersonation of insane?
Khrushchev through Gorbachev seem retrospectively to have been somewhat more stable?
As before, the purported S-300 is used by both Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskiy refutes Polish claims that the missile was fired by Ukraine.
Has Ukraine been stitched up here, and it was a Russian missile that Nato are saying is Ukrainian to avoid having to act?
Or did Ukraine fire it on purpose to bring Nato into it?
We still don't know the missile's exact provenance as yet.
In 1989 a Soviet Mig-23 crashed in Belgium killing one person on the ground. The pilot had ejected over Poland and the errant Mig continued on it’s journey until it ran out of fuel.
In 1966 a Yak-28 strayed into West-German airspace before crashing.
!966 - the USA dropped four nuclear bombs of Spain 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Palomares_B-52_crash
Has Ukraine been stitched up here, and it was a Russian missile that Nato are saying is Ukrainian to avoid having to act?
Or did Ukraine fire it on purpose to bring Nato into it?
I had both of these on my mind this afternoon. This I guess is why Ukraine are demanding access to the site - what what if THEY have an agenda.... aargh! I imagine NATO won't let them in until they can display a Radar / Sat image of the trajectory.
Let's not forget the quality of ageing Russian-made kit. There are plenty of examples of misfires:
Russian Pantsir (SA22-Greyhound) misfire https://twitter.com/i/status/1574859433192132617
Russian Kalibr cruise missile misfire
Russian S400 misfire https://crooksandliars.com/cltv/2022/06/russian-missile-defense-system-blows
Ignorant question - with all the "eyes on the skies" in the region, will there be a proper record of the missiles path?
Unlikely, you don't hand propaganda victories to the opposition. But in all fairness to the Ukraine they can be forgiven as they acted properly in launching an intercept missile, its just unfortunate as to the final result.
with all the “eyes on the skies” in the region, will there be a proper record of the missiles path?
I would assume yes but anyone qualified to answer the question probably has been given paperwork telling them they aint allowed to. No point either in it being officially announced.
Ultimately it is the Russians fault. The Ukrainians wouldnt have launched the faulty AA missile if the Russians hadnt been launching missiles at them.
Has Ukraine been stitched up here, and it was a Russian missile that Nato are saying is Ukrainian to avoid having to act?
Or did Ukraine fire it on purpose to bring Nato into it?
I had both of these on my mind this afternoon. This I guess is why Ukraine are demanding access to the site – what what if THEY have an agenda…. aargh! I imagine NATO won’t let them in until they can display a Radar / Sat image of the trajectory.
Both are possible but escalating it will only lead to the inevitable because the Poles are raring to go probably due to the WWII betrayal. Biden admin on the other hand is still on a shaky grounds at home and one wrong move means they would be out in the cold for a long time.
because the Poles are raring to go probably due to the WWII betrayal.
They are really not. The Poles are strong supporters of Ukraine, because they know fine well that they could be next in Moscow's cross hairs if Putin is successful there. They know Russia views them, like all former Soviet satellites close to EU/NATO with a toxic mix of envy, disdain, a misplaced superiority complex and territorial ambition.
So yes, they will defend themselves vigorously if attacked, but they are not looking for war. Do you seriously think any of Russia's neighbours is looking at the death, destruction of infrastructure, war crimes, refugees caused by Russia in Ukraine and thinking 'I fancy some of that'?
The Polish president has acknowledged that this was probably not a Russian attack. Not the actions of someone wanting to up the ante or invoke article 5.
Meanwhile, now that we can be reasonably assured that we’re not going to wake up in the middle of WW3, it seems that Russia’s chain smoking and H&S lax servicemen have been flicking their dog ends in the wrong direction. Again.
This time it’s the airfield at Dzhankoy in the Crimea, where a number of SU25 and SU34 planes have apparently been lit up.
Tsk. Those scallawags and their smoking. When will the ever learn..
Russian regional mobilisation senior officer Colonel Roman Malyk committed suicide in October
Another senior mobilisation officer, Colonel Vadim Boyko, shot himself yesterday, five rounds and four pistols were found with his body, it's reported as suicide...
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vadim-boyko-mystery-as-putins-military-crony-found-shot-dead/
Both are possible but escalating it will only lead to the inevitable because the Poles are raring to go probably due to the WWII betrayal.
Possible in the same way I might win the lottery at the weekend. Plausible, I don't think so. And the Poles aren't raring to go they're just not being cowed into silence by a Russian dictator's imperialist ambitions as they might have been without having the backing of NATO.
Biden admin on the other hand is still on a shaky grounds at home and one wrong move means they would be out in the cold for a long time.
Sure, if jumping the gun and starting WW3 counts as a wrong move, we'd all be out in the cold of a nuclear winter then though. No doubt Biden's got a lot to worry about domestically before 2024 but I don't think his decision making on Ukraine is driven by opinion polls in the US nor is it likely that election will be influenced much by what happens in Ukraine (assuming the WW3 scenario doesn't come to pass)
Post Midterms Biden has quite a decent window to “sort” this before 2024.
I read somewhere that this all going to plan for the Americans in that the Russian army and government are slowly being boiled, like the frog. But the risk is anything sudden or unexpected will drastically change the plan. The US and NATO are quite content to keep simmering albeit at the expense of Ukraine.
I read somewhere that this all going to plan for the Americans in that the Russian army and government are slowly being boiled, like the frog. But the risk is anything sudden or unexpected will drastically change the plan. The US and NATO are quite content to keep simmering albeit at the expense of Ukraine.
This is not a U.S. plan. Russia is just utterly incompetent.
I read somewhere that this all going to plan for the Americans
Yes, destroying the bread basket of Europe - and beyond - and seeing the world economy go tits up as a result has got the Americans rubbing their hands with glee that their cunning masterplan has worked
The US and NATO are quite content to keep simmering albeit at the expense of Ukraine.
I agree with NATO support for Ukraine, and I don't mean to lead the thread off topic, but I think you're right. Apart from the death and destruction in Ukraine, humans are probably doomed unless we get rid of nationalist dominance as an aspiration. US, China, Iran, Russia, etc, believe that their own citizens will benefit if they can subdue rival nations. We need a comet heading towards us or something to wake up and realise we can't afford it as a species. Covid wasn't enough, the timescale for global warming is too long compared to political careers, and Brexit illustrates how nationalism works in a democracy.
Yes, destroying the bread basket of Europe – and beyond – and seeing the world economy go tits up as a result has got the Americans rubbing their hands with glee that their cunning masterplan has worked
The article linked to doesn’t refer to destroying the breadbasket of Europe and beyond as part of some western plan, but rather the response to Russias invasion of Ukraine. For which, it would be insane for their to be no plan.
I don’t think Caher is saying the war is happening because of a western plan, but there is a plan of support by the west as a response. Is that about right @caher ?
I think the motivation for US and other western support to Ukraine is a mix of altruism/doing the right thing and pragmatism/selfishness. There was genuine shock at what Russia did. A European democratic* state being invaded by a belligerent, bullying, autocratic neighbour feels like something which had been consigned to history. I do think that near universal support for military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the West is genuine, heartfelt and not totally motivated by self interest.
However, it also gives the US/Western democracies an opportunity to degrade Russia's power and influence. They have run riot in recent years, interfering in elections, waging cyber warfare, carrying out chemical warfare attacks and assassinations in Western nations and generally being a malign, destabilising influence. I'm sure there is a view that anything which weakens the leadership, undermines their global image or reputation for military competence strengthens the West. I'd hope that wouldn't include a wish for the war to drag on to attrit RF forces at Ukraine's expense, but I'm not entirely convinced.
I also think there is a danger that Russia's grievances and humiliation if Ukraine 'wins' will fester and mutate. Especially if, as has been agreed, they have to pay massive reparations. I think some kind of democratic revolution is highly unlikely. If Putin is replaced, it's likely to be by some other ultranationalist headbanger. They will abandon any remaining pretence of democracy and looking outwards and become like North Korea in Europe, but with a hell of a lot more Nukes. All very depressing. I still absolutely support Ukraine in this, I just don't see any kind of rosy future when the current conflict ends.
*I know Ukraine's democracy is new and far from perfect, but it's a hell of a lot better than what passes for 'democracy' in the Russian federation.
I don’t think Caher is saying the war is happening because of a western plan, but there is a plan of support by the west as a response. Is that about right
That's exactly how I interpreted it. Trying to introduce a different perspective.
It was another poster who jumped to that conclusion.
Sometimes the reaction of a few on here make some threads quite a hostile place to post.
It's not like Russia has any western facing city's either and in the outlands it's even worse abandoned for corruption and greed.
I cannot see any real appetite for change like we see in Hong Kong or currently Iran.
They will go inwards looking and blame any one but themselves or Putin the normal folk will get ground to mush
Sometimes the reaction of a few on here make some threads quite a hostile place to post.
Freedom of speech, thought, idea. Some just dont get it.
We’re already seeing a number of commentators asking whether Zelenskiy can be trusted following reports of the S-300 missile landing in Poland. Predictably, these voices are closely associated with the hard right of US political punditry, some making fanciful allegations of money-laundering. And no, I won’t link their tweets here, mostly because they’re irredeemable scumbags.
TBH’s I don’t agree that US involvement in Ukraine is down to altruism - Putin’s Russia has made a habit of courting extremists. The fact that the Russian military has inflicted a colossal blunder upon itself is arguably too good an opportunity to miss. We’re seeing the sort of authoritarian quasi-democracy that many on the hard-right of politics in the US and Europe aspire to follow have its’ shorts whipped down in full view.
We’re seeing an authoritarian regime mired in staggering degrees of corruption unable to extricate itself from a situation of its’ own making. The decision making processes are ossified - there’s no means for dissenting voices to hold leadership to account. Russia isn’t on the brink of revolution (yet), but tens of thousands of Russian men between the ages of 18 and 65(!) from Russia’s provinces are being used as cannon fodder. Even if Putin sues for peace tomorrow, the social fallout in Russia will be felt for decades yet.
Even if Putin sues for peace tomorrow, the social fallout in Russia will be felt for decades yet.
It will, but there will be zero acceptance of responsibility for any of it by Russia. It will be the fault of Ukrainian Nazis, NATO, the EU, the treacherous former republics, Russian opposition parties etc. Resentment, misplaced grievance and exceptionalism fed by state controlled media will fester and make the country an even more toxic basket case than it is now. They will be broke, their conventional military battered and humiliated but they will still have thousands of nukes with a weakened and corrupt command and control system. I think Ukraine will win and expel Russia from all their territory and I will celebrate that, but the 'Russia problem' is only going to get worse IMO.
but the ‘Russia problem’ is only going to get worse IMO.
Arguably Russia has squandered any reputation for military competence in addition to the tens of thousands of trained, experienced soldiers who’ve been killed or wounded in Ukraine. I’ve no doubt that domestic propaganda will perpetuate the narratives you describe, but Russia’s ability to wage large scale war will have been severely diminished, possibly for generations.
but Russia’s ability to wage large scale war will have been severely diminished, possibly for generations.
I would agree with all of that if you had said wage conventional large scale war. I've never thought that Putin would use nuclear weapons, even low yield 'tactical' ones in the current conflict. In the future though, the very fact that their manpower and conventional forces have will have been severely degraded lowers the threshold for whichever bitter ultranationalist is in the Kremlin to use nukes IMO.
