Ukraine

 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

ok tell,me why Russia is now using civilian vehicles to lead lead their assaults, instead of BMPs etc?

I'm sure they are short of all sorts of things. But that doesn't mean they are close to being defeated.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 2:42 pm
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

I’m sure they are short of all sorts of things. But that doesn’t mean they are close to being defeated.

I sort of agree. Ukraine is unlikely to defeat Russia militarily on the battlefield.  But, although there has been lots of crying wolf, the Russian economy is in a far more perilous state than at any point in recent history.  Rampant inflation/stagflation, food poverty etc are likely to really hit home in 2025. I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin's war. I hope so, and I desperately hope that Ukraine can hold the line and force as high a cost as possible from Russia until then.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 2:51 pm
Posts: 45989
Free Member
 

Rampant inflation/stagflation, food poverty etc are likely to really hit home in 2025. I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin’s war.

This does seem to be a possibility.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 2:57 pm
Posts: 14451
Free Member
 

I think that, rather than Ukrainian military action will do for Putin’s war

About my best guess as well. (In a scenario where Putin loses his war). He can obviously still win setting up future wars in eastern Europe.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 2:57 pm
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

I hope so, and I desperately hope that Ukraine can hold the line and force as high a cost as possible from Russia until then.

I hope so too, but I've been hearing ever since the initial failed invasion that the Russians will lose Real Soon Now. Rather than repeating the mantra, I'd prefer if some "experts" had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong. Everyone might learn something.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 3:00 pm
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong.

I don't think there are any experts on here. It's a virtual pub chat. Some may bring some insight in niche areas, but no one is claiming their input is anything more than their own two'penneth ime.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 3:06 pm
elsketcho, roadworrier, Caher and 3 people reacted
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

I don’t think there are any experts on here

I'm aware of that. I was referring to the authors of tweets such as the one I quoted.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 3:09 pm
leffeboy, JonEdwards, leffeboy and 1 people reacted
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

OK 🙂


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 3:13 pm
Caher and Caher reacted
Posts: 34450
Full Member
 

I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong. Everyone might learn something.

im not sure anyone, experts included thought that North Korea would send 10s of 1000s of troops to help out Russia!


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 4:47 pm
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

I’d prefer if some “experts” had the humility to explain why they keep getting it wrong.

I doubt that the experts could foresee that N.Korea would provide 60% of artillery shells and mortar bombs to the (formerly?) second largest arms supplier in the world.

NK is accelerating its own production in 200 factories using Russian oil, etc, while European manufacturers are held back by political indecision.

Iran and NK are also providing UAVs and other missiles.

(source: https://cpd.gov.ua/en/international-threats-en/global-south/about-60-of-the-ammunition-used-by-russia-to-shell-ukraine-comes-from-dprk/ )

Nobody in the west knows if 11000 NK troops will be the last, or whether NK will send more.

Russia peaked at an estimated 2000+ troops killed per day in November and a total more than 4x Ukraine's total killed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yv75nydy3o Nobody in the west would consider that acceptable, so how could any of this be predicted from an aggressor who could just turn around and walk away?


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 9:44 pm
Murray, jonswhite, jonswhite and 1 people reacted
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

Nobody in the west would consider that acceptable, so how could any of this be predicted from an aggressor who could just turn around and walk away?

Dunno. And yet the “experts” still make predictions.


 
Posted : 26/12/2024 10:23 pm
Posts: 14525
Free Member
 

Anyone else find it irksome that the media are talking about Ukraine drone attacks in Russia in regards to excuses for the Russians allegedly shooting down the Azeri passenger jet?


 
Posted : 28/12/2024 9:55 am
Posts: 6968
Full Member
 

Using North Korean troops avoids the draft in Moscow and St. Petersburg which would really unsettle the elites. I'd like to see whatever visa Vladimir Solovyov's sons have to stay in London revoked.


 
Posted : 28/12/2024 10:51 am
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

I know it’s not Ukraine, but an interesting interview with the Georgian President, who face prison on Sunday if she doesn’t stand down to the unconstitutional new “president” brought in by the new parliament of the rigged election. She shows composure under such pressure!


 
Posted : 28/12/2024 10:57 am
Murray and Murray reacted
Posts: 14525
Free Member
 

Looks like Russia has owned up

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx8l1533j5o


 
Posted : 28/12/2024 1:45 pm
Murray, J-R, J-R and 1 people reacted
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

I forgot to put the link to the interview lol

https://www.youtube.com/live/lUASY40JDuw?si=hAEJ3MKFSFtVLIEh


 
Posted : 28/12/2024 3:27 pm
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

A useful update from Phillips P O'Brien. I'll make a small addition that President Putin has also exchanged thoughts with President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, where the Azeri airliner crashed.

The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments , NKorean troop update and some Syria stuff that I'll also put in that thread https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-113-this-war-is-truly


 
Posted : 29/12/2024 12:28 pm
tewit, fooman, jonwe and 9 people reacted
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?


 
Posted : 30/12/2024 6:06 pm
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US

Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?


 
Posted : 30/12/2024 6:20 pm
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

China has banned the export of drones, components etc to the US and Ukraine, not sure how this will affect Ukraine, surely they can import from a 3rd party?

Yes. The bottom line is that Ukraine (and the US) still have options, including manufacture, but they will all cost more and take time

Hasn’t the US already banned import of drones from China ?

This has been rumbling for years, in 2017 the US ordered its military to stop using DJI drones, software, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40860806

18 months ago China banned the export of heavier drones to both Ukraine and Russia.

A year later,

"Starting Sept. 1, China will prohibit the export of numerous radio and drone components through standard parcels delivered by air and sea.

The ban includes components used to build drones, such as motors and cameras for quadcopters, as well as radio systems, portable walkie-talkies and hunting knives." https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38142

I'm not sure of the significance of "standard parcels". Other media reports of the same story talk simply about banning all exports of civilian drones that could be put to either terrorist or military use because China was getting unwarranted criticism

More recently, some US companies have had Chinese component orders refused because they're supplying drones to Taiwan and so it goes on...


 
Posted : 30/12/2024 10:26 pm
Posts: 34450
Full Member
 

sea drone shoots down helicopter

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3leljopd37s2o


 
Posted : 31/12/2024 10:45 pm
Posts: 45989
Free Member
 

Insightful into Russian people's thinking from Steve Rosenberg again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/ce327we7w7zo


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 9:16 am
kimbers and kimbers reacted
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

The update includes decisive action by Finland as another Baltic cable is broken, which is a lesson to other European governments

A further consequence floated by “experts” is the possibility that this will lead to routine interception of shadow fleet tankers with impact on Russia’s efforts to avoid sanctions on its oil exports. If tanker owners face real risk of losing their ship they may be less likely to risk playing ball with Putin. Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 10:32 am
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

Supposing that those “owners” are actually who they say they are.

The thing about the Baltic is that at certain points it narrows massively leaving only a very narrow sea lane between the territorial waters of Finland and Estonia.

Prior to Russia's actions encouraging Finland to join NATO, Russian shipping had more room for manoeuvre under international treaty. NATO members now legally control almost the entire width and can deal with ships more easily.

I'm no maritime expert, but my understanding is that it makes tankers like Eagle S much easier to deal with. That little adventure has so far cost a tanker (currently impounded near to Helsinki with its own exclusion zone), its load of unleaded and a pile of surveillance gear (not to mention the missing anchor)

NATO now controls the entire airspace, apart from a short, restricted corridor to Kaliningrad and back (no onward travel), so the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia on several fronts


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 11:57 am
jonwe, Murray, jonwe and 1 people reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

...Russian choppers tried to intercept the UAV, but with R-73 „Sea Dragons“ missiles one chopper was shot down and another one damaged.

There was a grainy image of a similarly equipped UAV on a video a few weeks ago, which I was convinced was a wind-up by Ukraine; an air-to-air missile on the sea, power source, lock-on indicator and other challenges. Clearly it wasn't!


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 12:10 pm
Murray, kimbers, nickc and 3 people reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

5am today was the last time for Ukraine to allow the transit of Russian gas to Europe. PM Fico of Slovakia and PM Orban of Hungary will be digging deeper to pay their bills.

Moldova and Austria will be paying more too, but Moldova and Transnistria won't be under Russian energy blackmail influence

Ukraine did offer to continue transit if Russia agreed to payments being held until peace has been officially declared, but Russia didn't renew the agreement https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-halts-gas-exports-europe-via-ukraine-2025-01-01/


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 12:36 pm
Murray, jonswhite, kimbers and 5 people reacted
Posts: 45989
Free Member
 

Seems that Transnistria has turned off gas to residential properties.

You choose your side time....

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 2:45 pm
Posts: 12266
Full Member
 

I don't have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They've had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.


 
Posted : 01/01/2025 7:15 pm
Murray, J-R, kimbers and 3 people reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

I don’t have any sympathy for the governments of counties that have made no effort to move away from Russia energy supplies and are now moaning about Ukrainian gas transport cessation. They’ve had nearly 3 years in which they should have been doing their damnedest to make new contracts. Germany, who were overly dependent on Gazprom and a massive gas consumer managed it in about 6 months.

Arguably a big error by Russia to use energy blackmail so early following the invasion on 24th Feb 2022. They cut Nordstream supplies by 75% in June 2022 and shut it completely for 10 days in July.

What else would you do but top storage up for winter and hunt for new suppliers?

Moldova had the unique problem of being reliant on its Russian-leaning Transnistria breakaway because Russia supplied all of its gas there and not to the Moldovan state. Transnistria also generates electricity for the whole country and being possibly the poorest country in Europe, but not an EU member, Moldova didn't have too many options.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and Europe has financed Moldova's energy infrastructure. Moldova (and Ukraine) has been moving its electricity grid to the Continental European system and away from the Russian-Belorussian synchronous system since 2017. In 2022, following invasion, this became urgent and they managed the final changes within three weeks.

Moldova now has electricity supply connections to Romania and Ukraine, with a third 400kV line to Romania in the planning stages.

1st Jan 2025: "According to Zelensky, most European countries "have adapted" to the termination of Russian gas transit. Zelensky added that the allies' common task now is to support Moldova, dependent on Russian supplies, in its energy transformation." https://kyivindependent.com/one-of-moscows-biggest-defeats-zelensky-on-stopping-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine/

Slovakia and Hungary are a different case and are anti-Ukraine, e.g. PM Fico of Slovakia threatened to cut electricity supplies to Ukraine ( https://kyivindependent.com/slovakia-threatens-to-cut-electricity-supplies-if-ukraine-ends-russian-gas-transit/ ) while PM Orban believes that Ukraine should return Zakarpattia aka Trans-Carpathia to Hungary

Austria is different again and constitutionally neutral following WW2. You can interpret that in many ways, but business is business...


 
Posted : 02/01/2025 10:30 am
kelvin, nickc, kelvin and 1 people reacted
Posts: 12266
Full Member
 

Yeah, I was excluding the poor Moldovans in my brief summary. The Russian agitating bastards have really done a number on them and but for the fact they don't have a direct border to be invaded over I suspect they would have been back as part of Russia some time ago.


 
Posted : 02/01/2025 3:05 pm
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!


 
Posted : 02/01/2025 4:05 pm
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

A little more detail on Transnistria's problems. "Jan 2 (Reuters) - The cut-off of Russian gas supplies to Moldova's breakaway Transdniestria region has forced the closure of all industrial companies except food producers, an official said on Thursday."

It seems that Russia has abandoned the idea of supplying gas to its enclave, although it had the option (see Matt's link^^)

The local parliament last month sent an appeal to the Kremlin and the Russian parliament to reach a new agreement with Ukraine to enable gas supplies to continue. Moscow said at the time it would protect its citizens and soldiers in Transnistria.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/01/europe/transnistria-moldova-ukraine-russia-gas-intl/index.html/blockquote >
Moldova has successfully trialled supplies coming from Romania

The head of Moldovan national gas company Moldovagaz, Vadim Ceban, said his company had told the gas distribution company in the separatist enclave, Tiraspoltransgaz, that it was willing to help purchase gas from European countries to ease shortages.
But any gas supplied to the region would have to be paid for at market prices, he told TV8 television. Transdniestria has for several years paid nothing for supplies from Russian gas giant Gazprom under a tacit understanding with Moscow. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/breakaway-moldovan-regions-power-plant-switches-coal-after-gas-cutoff-2025-01-02/


 
Posted : 03/01/2025 8:54 am
Murray, kelvin, kelvin and 1 people reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

Finland's courts have backed the decision to seize Eagle S suspected of damaging undersea cables ^^ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finland-court-rejects-owners-request-release-oil-tanker-2025-01-03/

The (different) owners of the ship and its 35,000 tonnes of unleaded will be appealing to the courts again next week.

NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!

There's a treaty in place to allow navigation but only a comparatively narrow channel that isn't territorial waters. The Baltic relies on treaty because it isn't big enough for "international waters", which is where the legal problems really begin.

Yi Peng III was intercepted in the Baltic by German and Danish naval vessels before Christmas but wouldn't sail into Swedish waters as requested, which led to a Chinese investigation and their co-operation with authorities.

"Swedish, German and Finnish authorities were invited to board the Yi Peng 3 along with a Danish representative as part of a Chinese-led investigation. But the Swedish prosecutor, which is leading a European investigation, was not permitted to board the vessel."

“The shipowner company, after a comprehensive evaluation and consultation with relevant parties, decided to resume operations,” Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokesperson told AFP" https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/23/china-refused-investigation-into-ship-linked-to-severed-baltic-cables-says-sweden

Something similar happened with the New New Polar Bear in October 2023, although it wasn't intercepted. It was spotted in a Russian port missing an anchor and a Chinese investigation later said that it was responsible for accidental damage to undersea infrastructure https://news.sky.com/story/chinese-ships-anchor-caused-damage-to-baltic-gas-pipeline-finland-suggests-12992004


 
Posted : 04/01/2025 10:02 am
Murray, matt_outandabout, kelvin and 3 people reacted
Posts: 2111
Full Member
 

Any thoughts on the new Kursk offensive?

Just keeping Vlad on his toes (he's Immediately sent one of his most trusted generals)?

A serious offensive designed to push Russian forces back and divert significant resource from the Donbass?

Quick landgrab to strengthen the negotiating position ahead of the return of the Orange manchild?

All of the above?

Answers on a postcard


 
Posted : 05/01/2025 4:39 pm
thols2, thelawman, bluerob and 5 people reacted
Posts: 9251
Full Member
 

NATO should blockade the Baltic, enough is enough!

So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.


 
Posted : 05/01/2025 4:51 pm
ernielynch, Chest_Rockwell, J-R and 5 people reacted
Posts: 6759
Full Member
 

Morning catch-ups....

NATO now controls the entire airspace, apart from a short, restricted corridor to Kaliningrad and back (no onward travel), so the invasion of Ukraine has cost Russia on several fronts

I think we have mentioned the GPS issues around Kaliningrad earlier in this thread. How do military aircraft cope with russia switching it off and electronic jamming... I think there have been links posted on here about disruption to commercial air traffic.

Edit: just found this https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/gps-jamming-map/


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 7:12 am
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

Answers on a postcard

Any of the above

Early days yet. Russia has slackened the pace of its attacks so keeping the pressure on them?

Keep everyone guessing?

Take media attention away from the Russian media machine in an important next few weeks? (France, Germany, US, all set for political change)

Who knows?


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 8:21 am
kimbers and kimbers reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

How do military aircraft cope with russia switching it off and electronic jamming

Military specifically, I dunno

Commercial aircraft fall back onto inertial navigation (INS) and dead reckoning navigation with an old-fashioned compass, time, maps and a calculator (INS without the electronics)

Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range Stations (VOR) are used but there may be transmission/reception problems. Air traffic controllers may also be subject to transmission/reception problems.

There are solutions being developed all the time, e.g. https://www.militaryaerospace.com/communications/article/55240119/aerodata-earns-easa-stc-for-its-gps-anti-jamming-and-spoofing-solution and AI solutions, e.g. https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a62085402/magnetic-navigation-aircraft/


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 8:42 am
 lerk
Posts: 185
Free Member
 

Very High Frequency Omnidirectional Range Stations (VOR) are used but there may be transmission/reception problems. Air traffic controllers may also be subject to transmission/reception problems.

Not least amongst issues, they are all gradually being turned off so the bandwidth can be sold off…

worst case scenario they will have to fall back on VHF direction finding, if the controller can find the box and remember how to use it!


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 9:13 am
Posts: 34937
Full Member
 

So you think nato should go to war against Russia ? Im sorry but thats a completely unhinged comment.

The whole point of Russia invading Ukraine is to force the west into accepting Russia as a dominate world power like it was back in the day -USSR stylee. He absolutely wants you to think that he'll use nuclear weapons as part of that tactic (he has after all; threatened it enough times - supply Ukraine with guns, I'll use nukes, give them tanks, I'll use nukes, give them F16's I use nukes...and so on and on) . The paradox of course is that if he wants there to be multi-centred power in the future - then that pretty much excludes the use of these weapons by default.


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 11:49 am
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

I think we know by now, Russia isn’t going to use its strategic deterrence.

monitoring, inspections of Russian shadow tanker fleet (and any other suspicious vessel) should be a minimum response to Russias behaviour.


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 5:04 pm
thols2, J-R, kimbers and 3 people reacted
 J-R
Posts: 1179
Full Member
 

I think we know by now, Russia isn’t going to use its strategic deterrence.

In the current situation that is fair. But if the situation changed substantially, such as your suggested Baltic Blockade, leading to a NATO ship firing on a Russian ship running the blockade, leading to escalatory Russian strikes on a NATO naval base, leading to retaliatory NATO strikes on militarily assets in Russia . . . . then all bets would be off.

Hopefully wiser heads would prevail - hopefully.


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 7:00 pm
Posts: 1175
Free Member
 

leading to escalatory Russian strikes on a NATO naval base

How? They can barely take out Ukranian power stations.


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 7:20 pm
Posts: 12266
Full Member
 

I'm sure they could take out the power stations, would be easy, but hitting the distribution system is pretty much as effective and much more deniable as accidental.


 
Posted : 06/01/2025 10:42 pm
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

New sanctions imposed on the Russian shadow tanker fleet, I believe China and India have refused to allow some oil tankers to to dock. Also the deployment of JEF to the Baltic sea to help monitor sabotage etc.

the biggest question remains unfortunately is, what will the mandarin Mussolini do?


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 8:17 am
blokeuptheroad, Murray, kimbers and 3 people reacted
 DT78
Posts: 10066
Free Member
 

There is some grim reading about the poor sods from North Korea.  Basically being used like the wagner prisioners before them.

One of the guys captured said they thought they were being sent on a training exercise in russia.  hopefully somehow the treatment of these troops will get back to NK and cause some discontent so Kim is less sure about sending more


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 9:10 am
Posts: 4428
Full Member
 

Trump remains the big unknown, if you'd asked me 6 months ago I'd have been certain he'd sell Ukraine down the river and snuggle up to Putin.

Now I'm not so sure and to be honest, Trump is so erratic and thin-skinned that what he decides to do could basically depend on what side of the bed he gets out of that morning.

It's very apparent that Russia's ability to prosecute the war is finally starting  to falter in multiple, major ways, they've kept it going for longer than any of us thought possible but the Soviet stockpiles are largely gone and every red warning light on the economy's dashboard is flashing red.

If Trump realises this and decides he wants the glory of being the president that 'defeats' one of the USA's oldest foes then it's very doable, he could end up doing the right thing for the wrong  reasons.

But in reality, we just don't know.

Which is ridiculous but here we are.


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 9:27 am
Del, downshep, theotherjonv and 3 people reacted
Posts: 12266
Full Member
 

hopefully somehow the treatment of these troops will get back to NK and cause some discontent so Kim is less sure about sending more

I suspect Kim gives even less of a shit about his countrymen than even Putin. His position is more secure and the media and other sources of information completely controlled even if available.


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 9:28 am
J-R, kimbers, J-R and 1 people reacted
Posts: 4428
Full Member
 

As with all dictatorships, they seem utterly immovable and everlasting.... until they're suddenly not.


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 9:34 am
retrorick, kimbers, retrorick and 1 people reacted
Posts: 12266
Full Member
 

True, but I reckon Putin coat is on a far more shooglie peg.


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 11:22 am
Posts: 8738
Full Member
 

But in reality, we just don’t know

The other thing we don't know is how much dirt Putin has on Trump (dodgy financial deals, backhanders, hookers etc.), I'm sure that will have a large bearing on what Trump does as president


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 12:46 pm
murdooverthehill, kimbers, kimbers and 1 people reacted
Posts: 4985
Full Member
 

I'm not the Teflon Donk has to worry about that stuff...


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 3:01 pm
Posts: 4985
Full Member
 

Damn. missed the 'sure' out of that sentence.


 
Posted : 14/01/2025 9:24 pm
J-R and J-R reacted
Posts: 20835
Free Member
 

The other thing we don’t know is how much dirt Putin has on Trump (dodgy financial deals, backhanders, hookers etc.), I’m sure that will have a large bearing on what Trump does as president

Trump will just shout 'Fake News' into the clouds for a bit and it will go away.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 9:01 am
J-R and J-R reacted
Posts: 4428
Full Member
 

Yeah, it's not like Trump has to worry about relection at this point, he's not the Trump of 2016, now he's got his cult behind him and I can't see any dirt that Putin may have on him affecting that now.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 9:06 am
J-R and J-R reacted
 Olly
Posts: 5259
Full Member
 

hopefully somehow the treatment of these troops will get back to NK and cause some discontent so Kim is less sure about sending more

Reports are that the NK troops have been sent in with no armour or significant kit, just handed an AK and sent to soak up ammunition.

They operate on fear of reprisals back home: coming back alive, or retreating may result in family back home being sent to labour camps or worse so the NK soldiers are actually killing themselves and each other, rather than risking anything that can be construed as retreat.

Also apparently Kim has diddled Vlad on the deal, by sending the agreed number of soliders, but sending the absoloute worst, most useless, poorly trained units. Who knows what he got out of the deal.

Horrendous reading all round. the whole thing doesnt read like a war, just an industrial scale liquidation of mainly Russian troops (2000 a day) and assets, just because Vlad has an ego on him.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 9:19 am
Murray and Murray reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

New sanctions imposed on the Russian shadow tanker fleet, I believe China and India have refused to allow some oil tankers to to dock. Also the deployment of JEF to the Baltic sea to help monitor sabotage etc.

India and China have been pretty good at sticking to the letter of sanctions. Interpretation is occasionally open to discussion, which is the same in any legal framework, with access to western banking systems and the international appeal of the $US a strong motivator.

There is a Cold War reboot of the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap with a Baltic bonus thrown in because of the invasion of Ukraine. GIUK went out of fashion following the fall of the USSR and NATO nation bases on the outlying islands that had surveyed access to the Atlantic from the Norwegian Sea were moth-balled. This is why naval nuclear facilities on the west coast of Scotland are still of strategic importance to supply western submarines.

Global warming is opening up the Arctic shipping routes and Russia imposes tariffs on the Northern Sea Route (one of several routes) to keep channels clear of ice. The Arctic routes can save thousands of miles on some journeys when compared to Suez Canal routes and more when Suez is inaccessible.

Russia has been updating its Arctic military presence for years and is ahead of the west in the region and can control shipping routes in a region that comprises 20% of the Russian land mass. Keeping the west focussed on the Baltic damages NATO resilience and detracts from operations elsewhere.

The JEF nations are all NATO members and the GIUK grouping has been expanded to cover Baltic routes, hence the inclusion of the Netherlands amongst the Baltic countries. Whether we like it or not, there is more to be done and it's going to cost!

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-expeditionary-force-activates-uk-led-reaction-system-to-track-threats-to-undersea-infrastructure-and-monitor-russian-shadow-fleet


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 9:26 am
ossify, Kamakazie, stompy and 5 people reacted
Posts: 2909
Free Member
 

The captured NK troops said they thought they were on an exorcise, had no idea they were in Ukraine, in a war zone.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 10:47 am
Posts: 4428
Full Member
 

I think they very much knew they were in a warzone by the time they were captured but yes they were apparently told they were going to Russia for training and then sent straight to the front to be butchered en masse as cannon fodder.

Russia and their chums continuing to act with an almost cartoonish level of callousness.

I know we in the West are far from perfect but... wow. One to remember the next time the whataboutery starts up again.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 11:47 am
J-R, TroutWrestler, TroutWrestler and 1 people reacted
Posts: 17261
Full Member
 

I guess the SK strategists are very keen to see how the NK troops are performing.
Are they good at marching , reciting the red book but useless at shooting stuff?


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 12:13 pm
Posts: 3541
Full Member
 

I guess the SK strategists are very keen to see how the NK troops are performing.

Apologies if it's duplicates info but the Ukrainians have been using SK intelligence to translate for the handful of captured NK combatants they have.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 12:22 pm
Murray, avdave2, avdave2 and 1 people reacted
Posts: 91157
Free Member
 

How long before Putin runs out of road politically? I'm sure there are plenty of people who'd love to take over.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 2:25 pm
fossy and fossy reacted
Posts: 403
Free Member
 

NK soldiers are actually killing themselves and each other, rather than risking anything that can be construed as retreat.

There was an article from a former soldier of NK. In it he explained how soldiers are encouraged kill themselves rather than suffer the humiliation of being captured. The Japanese were similar in WW2, with civilians jumping to their death rather than suffer the humiliation of surrender.

I really don't think its a lot different to Western cultures doing so with the dangle of a bit of metal on a ribbon.

Wars are nonsensical.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 2:51 pm
Posts: 2304
Full Member
 

I guess the SK strategists are very keen to see how the NK troops are performing.
Are they good at marching , reciting the red book but useless at shooting stuff?

Apparently they are actually very good soldiers and not to be underestimated:  https://www.politico.eu/article/north-koreans-skilled-fighters-rather-kill-themselves-then-get-captured-ukrainian-soldiers-say/


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 2:55 pm
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

I really don’t think its a lot different to Western cultures doing so with the dangle of a bit of metal on a ribbon.

Then you think wrong. Soldiers fight and die for their mates alongside them, not "a bit of metal on a ribbon".


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 3:02 pm
relapsed_mandalorian, thols2, d42dom and 11 people reacted
Posts: 403
Free Member
 

I guess its how many steps back you wish to question why they are there then.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 3:08 pm
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

How long before Putin runs out of road politically? I’m sure there are plenty of people who’d love to take over.

I'm not sure there are. He has ruthlessly purged (or killed) anyone who was a genuine political threat, and those around him must be terrified to show an inkling of dissent, or tell him anything he doesn't want to hear. Anyone who had aspirations to take over, is probably doomed the moment they tell anyone else if it gets back to Putin. If he croaks then there will be an unseemly "death of Stalin" style scrabble to take over. Sadly the result is unlikely to be moderate, liberal or democratic.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 3:09 pm
thols2, J-R, kimbers and 7 people reacted
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

I guess its how many steps back you wish to question why they are there then.

I'll just ask myself and my many serving and veteran mates then. I can absolutely guarantee, 100% not one of us will answer “for a bit of metal on a ribbon”!  Even though incidentally, quite a few have said ornaments of varying levels of blinginess.


 
Posted : 15/01/2025 3:15 pm
thols2, J-R, andrewh and 3 people reacted
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

Article about Russian advances in eastern Ukraine. Of course it must be wrong, because all STW readers know that Russia is just about to lose.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/16/their-human-resources-are-unlimited-russias-advances-signal-bleak-spring-for-ukrainians


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 8:45 am
e-machine, johnnystorm, e-machine and 1 people reacted
Posts: 6572
Free Member
 

One sentence is clearly nonsense,

"...But their human resources are unlimited.”

None of Russia's gains are strategic; Ukraine hasn't rolled over with the fall of Avdiivka, Ocheretnye or any other city taken by them.

Luke Harding is a serious journalist, but an interview with a handful of exhausted people doesn't amount to impending defeat


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 8:58 am
thols2, kimbers, kimbers and 1 people reacted
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

Of course it must be wrong, because all STW readers know that Russia is just about to lose.

Give it a rest. It's possible to make your point without snarky comments every time. I've said it before, I think you could add value to the debate on here, but your abrasive style just puts people backs up.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 9:28 am
thols2, AD, Earl_Grey and 17 people reacted
Posts: 4428
Full Member
 

War is hell and Ukrainians have been living in that reality for a long time now, but even so, current polling of Ukrainian public opinion continues to show strong consistent support for fighting on.

Support for a 'negociated settlement' is creeping up but the devil's in the detail, most of the respondents who say they want a negotiated peace still see any kind of territorial concessions as a solid red line they will not cross, and a Russia that still thinks it can win will not sign any deal that does no give them the territory they currently hold.

Both sides are still a very long way from being in a place where there's a path to a negotiated peace and I suspect Ukraine will fight on even if the US cuts off support. The most likely way this ends is still as a result Political or economic events on the Russian home front.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 9:37 am
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

I think you could add value to the debate on here, but your abrasive style just puts people backs up.

Any comments on the actual article, or just ad hom? As well as interviewing Ukrainian soldiers there is, amongst other things, an analysis of Russian tactics and a map showing their advances in the recent past. Anything to say about that?


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 10:51 am
e-machine, ernielynch, e-machine and 1 people reacted
Posts: 1175
Free Member
 

Any comments on the actual article, or just ad hom? 

This is a bit rich.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:19 am
thols2, blokeuptheroad, AD and 13 people reacted
Posts: 31
Free Member
 

Any comments on the actual article, or just ad hom?

Ironically, when you posted the link, you offered no comment on the article, just an ad hom attack on the forum as a whole.

Of course it must be wrong, because all STW readers know that Russia is just about to lose.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:23 am
thols2, blokeuptheroad, johnnystorm and 15 people reacted
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

Any comments on the actual article.

I'll take a look, I haven't had chance yet. I read most of the links posted on here in good faith. One of my filters to assess the good faith bit, is whether or not the invitation to read it is dripping in sarcasm and thinly veiled contempt for the other contributors to the thread.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:28 am
thols2, doomanic, J-R and 7 people reacted
 DrJ
Posts: 13898
Full Member
 

Ironically, when you posted the link, you offered no comment on the article, just an ad hom attack on the forum as a whole.

What do you think "ad hominem" means? It means an attack on a person ("your abrasive style"), rather than on a position ("Russia is about to lose").


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:32 am
 DT78
Posts: 10066
Free Member
 

*sigh*

I am genuinely interested in reading other points of view, as I am very aware our western media picks and chooses what it wants us to see / hear.

You could have said - I found this article really interesting, a different view point on Russia and the fact its not going to be collapsing any time soon.

But, you chose to add a bit of a dig that's kicked stuff off unnecessarily


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:41 am
blokeuptheroad, ahote, AD and 13 people reacted
Posts: 31
Free Member
 

Anyway I forgot what I really came here to say which was in response to this about members of the armed forces being (solely?) motivated by medals and honours.

I guess its how many steps back you wish to question why they are there then.

Prior to the Ukraine invasion I would have probably naively leaned more to this way of thinking, feeling that the whole military machine is based around some vague outdated concept of defending the queen and country in an abstract way. But it is quite obvious from seeing videos and reading about the defenders of Ukraine that it is literally only about protecting their land, friends, family, and anything else you can think of. And I assume, it is the same for anyone in the military of "Western cultures".

I can't even agree with this

Wars are nonsensical.

Sure they are wasteful and terrible and I hope to never be in one, but the only way to have had no war in this case would have been to allow Putin to do whatever he liked and we saw where that lead early on, in Bucha and Mariupol. Having no war would be nonsensical. And that, I feel, provides some insight into why people are fighting and why people in "Western cultures" are in the military, and I think it has nothing to do with

the dangle of a bit of metal on a ribbon.


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:44 am
Posts: 5704
Full Member
 

What do you think “ad hominem” means? It means an attack on a person (“your abrasive style”), rather than on a position

No ad hominem from me. I didn't attack your position, because you didn't declare one. You posted a link with no comment, then had a dig at the rest of us. No attack on you either, just an observation on your communication style. Am I wrong about it?


 
Posted : 16/01/2025 11:50 am
thols2, mc86, doomanic and 17 people reacted
Page 257 / 277