India no longer has confidence in Russia as an arms supplier.
This has been brewing for a while. India has incomplete orders for both spares and weapons with Russia and it's estimated that they have twenty years of life in some of the Russian kit and will need parts in the future. India really wanted to keep Russia onside as a balance to China with ****stan and had licensing agreements for manufacture that isn't happening ATM, so instead of Kamov helicopters they now make Hindustan Aeronautics designs
India is still waiting for two S400 AD systems that were part of a $5.4bn order for five made in 2018, Russia has been losing S400 systems since 2022
IMHO Iran won’t. They don’t have an air force in the conventional sense and Tom Cruise stole one of their remaining working F14 aircraft in TG Maverick
This^^^
Iran knows they are being baited so can only take the beating for now.
Interesting 35 minute meeting between Presidents Macron, Trump and Zelensky in Paris https://www.france24.com/en/france/20241207-macron-trump-zelensky-hold-trilateral-on-sidelines-of-notre-dame-ceremony
Don't get too excited by Trump's blue and yellow ensemble (see France 24 pics), they're also religiously significant colours used in the Notre Dame opening 🙂
What are the implications for Ukraine of this weekend's events?
I know Russia can't get it's ships from Tartus into the Black Sea, but other than that, does this free up a load of battle-hardened forces and equipment that can now be transferred to the Ukraine conflict? Or will they all go to Africa, as a pre-emptive shoring up of their forces there, given that it's going to be much harder to keep them supplied and supported from here on?
does this free up a load of battle-hardened forces and equipment that can now be transferred to the Ukraine conflict?
I think most of Russia's support to Assad was in the form of stand-off attacks on rebel positions with airstrikes, missiles and artillery, not so much in the way of Russian combat troops engaging directly on the ground. So there will be advisors, training staff, technical support personnel etc. but not a whole load of "battle hardened troops". I'm not 100% sure of my facts there, so I stand to be corrected, but that's my understanding. On the equipment side, things moved so quickly, the logistics of getting kit to the departure points and loaded might be difficult and also a whole load of kit has been captured by HTS et al.
Galeotti goes through the implications for Ukraine. He thinks not a lot. While a Bad Thing for Putin, it's not going to cost him domestically. Assad falling quickly made it easy to just yoink everything out straight away. Had Assad held on that would have caused more of a dilema. Unlikely to be able to keep the africa schenanigans going. Overal, bad for Russia, but unlikely to be transformative for the ukraine conflict
Russia will now negotiate with the new regime to keep it's bases. And if Assad is in Russia then they will offer to return him as part of the deal and for everyone's convenience they'll use one of their planes that only need runways to take off.
Russia will now negotiate with the new regime to keep it’s bases.
They will, although they will be negotiating with people they've been bombing the shit out of for years, who consequently aren't going to be brimming with good will towards them!
does this free up a load of battle-hardened forces and equipment that can now be transferred to the Ukraine conflict?
Russia has been transferring troops and equipment out of Syria to Ukraine since May 2022. This is one reason for the speed of the HTS rebellion; there isn't much left https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/05/7/7344760/
Or will they all go to Africa, as a pre-emptive shoring up of their forces there, given that it’s going to be much harder to keep them supplied and supported from here on?
What is left won't go far wherever it's deployed. One cargo ship and some aircraft movement doesn't amount to much in the grand scheme; modern cargo aircraft will move between one and two artic lorries worth as a comparison
Also posted on the Syria thread...
Israel has attacked Syrian military depots on the outskirts of Damascus and elsewhere to put abandoned missile stocks out of reach of groups that might target them
Ukraine reports that the remaining Russian fleet has left Tartus
On 8 December 2024, the Admiral Grigorovich frigate of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Inzhener Trubin cargo ship of the Russian Northern Fleet departed from Tartus and headed to the Mediterranean Sea.
In addition, the Russians are transferring remnants of their weapons and military equipment from Syria’s Khmeimim airfield.”
Pro Ukrainian accounts are making a few claims about Tartus and Khmeimim presently
Following the Paris meeting, this appeared
"Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, adding that Kyiv had lost some 400,000* soldiers. "There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin."
"I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!" Trump added, referring to Russian President Putin....and President Zelensky added...
"It (the war) cannot simply end with a piece of paper and a few signatures. A ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done before. To ensure that Ukrainians no longer suffer losses, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to occupation." https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-calls-immediate-ukraine-ceasefire-zelenskiy-says-guarantees-needed-2024-12-08/
*400,000 soldiers was clarified, "Zelenskiy said 43,000 soldiers had been killed in the war and that there had been 370,000 wounded soldiers."
Pro Ukrainian accounts are making a few claims about Tartus and Khmeimim presently
Yes, there is some confusion. Russia seems to be trying hard for a diplomatic solution, but as someone commented^^, the rebels aren't likely to favour Russia following the last decade of attacks
Yeah, the Syrians haven't forgotten, only a few months back there was a fair bit of rejoicing after a Russian Air Force major was downed and killed over Eastern Ukraine.
Turns out he was directly involved in much of Russia's terror bombing of civilians in Aleppo and other rebel held areas.
The first Russian tank storage base to be emptied. The dominoes are falling.
A very incisive analysis from APN on what victory would look like from a Russian perspective. Some real lessons and warnings here for western governments in any future peace talks.
somewhat related, I was a guest of the polish border police for a couple of hours yesterday. I've been doing some wildlife photography in eastern Poland, about 3km from the border with Belarus. They didn't take too kindly to a few lads creeping around the forrest wearing camo carrying big lenses. The (polish) guide also had a drone with him, which they REALLY didnt like.
Anyway, some ID's were taken, some calls were made, some waiting was done and we went on our way.
Lots of military activity, armoured jeep things with machine guns up top razzing around everywhere.
Gotta say with the whole of Europe to go spying on wildlife, that’s gotta be one of the few places where it seems to me like a bad idea.
I was a guest of the polish border police
You do surprise me after that activity and kit!
I highly recommend this documentary from Chris Cappy of his experience being guided to the frontline in Kursk.
To be fair, “I have come to photograph the famous Polish voles” (or whatever) probably sounds a bit like “we came to see the world famous Salisbury cathedral”!
It's Bison! The area is famous for having Europes last wild bison. It's a national park and there's LOADS of ecotourism here. The only wierd thing we are doing is being here in winter (hoping for a shot of bison covered in snow). This is the area where all the immigrants got bussed to a while back and there's now a fully militarised border fence. This has badly affected the bison population as most of it actually lives in Belarus. The much smaller polish population can't mingle with the Belarus population so are shagging their sisters instead. So thats another thing Putin has ruined.
Guide told us its just the border police (who are their own independent department) being all jumped up. We did meet some army proper and they were very keen to show us bison photos from their phones and tell us about where they saw them.
The much smaller polish population can’t mingle with the Belarus population so are shagging their sisters instead
That's why plans for a Bison reserve in the Norfolk/Lincolnshire border area were shelved.
Looks amazing! 🙂
It’s Bison!
I'm not surprised that they were suspicious; any kitchen in the Black Country has a cupboard full
They have whales in the canals too, usually attached to a rusty bicycle
Żubrówka Vodka, you must have had some... really tasty.
I highly recommend this documentary from Chris Cappy of his experience being guided to the frontline in Kursk.
Fair play to Cappy, going to Ukraine is one this but going into Ukrainian occupied Kursk is a whole 'nother level of intense.
Did you see how stone cold that babushka was when the artillery went off near them, not even the tiniest flicker. War changes people.
Thanks for linking that documentary definitely worth a watch
I highly recommend this documentary from Chris Cappy of his experience being guided to the frontline in Kursk.
I was slightly dubious as I've watched a few of his other videos and found them to have a bit too much salivating over military tech and a line in "humour" which grates a bit. Beneath that though, he's clearly an intelligent guy and having combat experience gives him credibility a lot of commentators lack. That particular documentary was a cut above his other content and was honest, thoughtful and brave. Thanks for flagging it up.
I’ve watched a few of his other videos and found them to have a bit too much salivating over military tech and a line in “humour” which grates a bit.
Ditto, I can find him a bit irritating on occasions but I've always felt his heart's in the right place and, as you've said, this latest video is a huge step up. Good to see it hit almost a million views in a day as well, shows that not everyone has 'lost interest' in what's going on over there.
Footage of a large, light aircraft sized Ukrainian drone hitting a building in Grozny. Reported to be an OMON (paramilitary police) building. On the face of it I can't see any strategic significance, but it will wind Kadyrov up massively and be popular with Chechen civilians as OMON have a very dubious war crimes and human rights record in Chechnya to say the least.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1868209824233623916
Russian tanker sank near Kerch Straits. No evidence that it was an attack, might have just broken in half.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1868229538523861243
2 tankers according to Sky news. Seems a helluva coincidence.
I assume this will disrupt fuel supplies. ?
Were the ships part of the bridge defences? To intercept the sea baby drones? Most of the sea baby drone missions are at night tho, so my guess is submarine drones!
The front fell off.
its a bit odd that 2 have gone down at once, but
The Volgoneft-212 was 55 years old, registered in St Petersburg and recently refitted. The centre was cut out and the stern and bow were welded together, forming a huge seam in the middle. It is this section that appears to have broken.
The head of the Russian army’s chemical weapons division died on Tuesday when an explosive device attached to a scooter went off outside an apartment building in Moscow.
On Monday, Ukrainian prosecutors charged the general with using banned chemical weapons in Ukraine, according to the Kyiv Post.
I think this type of thing will continue long after the end of the conflict.
Russia appear happy to use the war crimes committed by their forces to terrorise Ukranians from continuing their fight, but it also makes any sort of forgiveness harder to facilitate.
I think this type of thing will continue long after the end of the conflict
See also incendiary devices in Birmingham and Leipzig in July https://www.flyingmag.com/aircraft/lucky-coincidence-thwarts-alleged-russian-attack-on-dhl-flight/
Just read there is drone footage of russians deliberately burning NK casualties faces to disguise them. In a war of so many horrors I'm not sure why this one in particular had me going wtf but it did.
Just read there is drone footage of russians deliberately burning NK casualties faces
What is the source for this? - sounds a bit conspiracy theory like to me, unless it is a reliable news agency.
Apparently posted by ukr on telegram. I'm not going searching for it, its not something I want to see. I still remember seeing that young girl cycling being hit by a missile in the first few days of the war. Thats going to haunt me forever
Hmmm, I can see why UKR would like to claim it, but that doesn’t mean it’s true.
I think I’ll stick with the possible conspiracy theory / disinformation until it is verified by a credible agency.
i have seen some of the drone footage, it looks real enough, but not exactly clear what is being shown
I darent check on shitter but I'm guessing that the conspiracy loons have gone into overdrive after Ukraine killed the general who was banging on about biolabs
I think this type of thing will continue long after the end of the conflict.
Are they going to keep trying until they spark the scenario of Archduke Franz Ferdinand?
Or rough seas and a worn out tanker fleet that Russia can’t afford to replace
This seems to be closest to the truth. The three tankers were apparently rated for river and coastal routes decades ago. The Black Sea was stormy and the tankers were (litorally 🙂 ) out of their depth
They were each carrying around 4000 tonnes of oil
I darent check on shitter but I’m guessing that the conspiracy loons have gone into overdrive after Ukraine killed the general who was banging on about biolabs
I suspect there will be retaliation for that from the Russians.
A browse of some of the information on Bluesky suggests that the Russians really have emptied some of thier storage and renovation depots of tanks and other vehicles at last. I know this has been proposed as a likely thing for a long time, but it seems it may now be true.
I also see the Ruble is resolutely low and that Russian bond prices have surged to 28% cost. Again, I wonder if this war may end through a collapse of resources and economy in Russia...
Some news that President Trump is planning to send his envoy, retired army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, to Europe and Ukraine in early January https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-ukraine-envoy-plans-january-trip-kyiv-other-european-capitals-2024-12-17/
It's significant that he's not planning a trip to Russia, which would be an important part of a fact-finding mission for peace. Ukraine has shown willingness for peace negotiations, while Russia hasn't.
Statements from the US are mixed, but this must not become a mission to force Ukraine to agree to peace on any terms and instead should promise to strengthen Ukraine until Russia comes to the table.
In a June interview with Times Radio, a British digital station, Sebastian Gorka, one of Trump's incoming deputy national security advisers, said Trump had told him he would force Putin into talks by threatening unprecedented weapons shipments to Ukraine if Putin refused.
Gorka, reached by phone, called Reuters "fake news garbage" and declined to elaborate. https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04/
In July Keith Kellogg was interviewed by Voice of America (VOA). VOA is part of the U.S. Agency for Global Media
Kellogg: President Trump, to his credit, said in the very first debate when he was asked by one of the commentators, Dana Bash, do the Russians basically get to keep the territories? He said no, not at all. He said not once, he did it twice.
AND
VOA: Ukrainian officials might be cautious about entering into the negotiations with Russians because it might send a signal to their partners that they don't need military aid anymore.
Kellogg: You have to give more arms to them because you can't trust the Russians. You just have to do it, and the question is, do you do this before Europe tires, Americans tire, Ukrainians tire? https://www.voanews.com/a/former-trump-nsc-official-explains-his-vision-for-ending-war-in-ukraine-/7712184.html
At that point Keith Kellogg hadn't been appointed envoy and he now has a chain of management that he reports to
I suspect there will be retaliation for that from the Russians
Russia is already doing anything in its power, both within and without international law
@relapsed_mandalorian understands the ins and outs of this and may comment, but I think that Ukraine's actions were legal in killing Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, an active military participant in an active war
NATO has taken on the co-ordination of aid to Ukraine from the US https://www.reuters.com/world/nato-takes-over-coordination-military-aid-kyiv-us-source-says-2024-12-17/
for shore
We had an e scooter explode at the train station was that Ukraine as well?
Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg
Whilst I remain deeply concerned about what Trump is going to do once in power the appointment of Kellogg does raise a glimmer of hope as he seems to have a fair grasp on what's at stake here and it's the kind of snivelling Putin-apologist culture warrior I feared would be given the role.
Of course this could just mean that he'll be out on his arse in 3 weeks and replaced with some utter quisling but hey, I'll take my hope where i can.
It was an interesting evening last night talking to two friends who both hosted Ukraine families in the past. Both families left the Uk to go home around 12 - 18 months ago. A week ago and yesterday both families returned to the UK. One is back with one friend, the other is in their own rented place (my friend visited them yesterday morning).
The reason these families (and many others I'm told) have returned here is due to the fact that Trump will be in power. Both families have come back without the husbands/fathers, who are staying behind to do whatever they have to, to protect their land. There seems to be real fear that Trump will hand their country over to Russia. I really don't understand the politics, however all I know these people are really struggling, more so than ever.
Who owns all the land in the Ukraine?
Are the regular people (want to get just get by in life, type person) fighting to retain land for a bunch of Ukrainian billionaires?
Like in this country, I don't think I would willingly lay down my life for the handful of people who have everything. Who would of most likely ran away to the states or equivalent at the first sign of trouble.
And back again when it's all over, and still own it all.
I expect regular Ukrainians don't want to be raped and murdered by Russians. Which is something the Russians have (yet again) proved they do.
**** Russia.
Are the regular people (want to get just get by in life, type person) fighting to retain land for a bunch of Ukrainian billionaires?
Imagine that you lost your house and belongings, you are now destitute, no matter how hard you had worked. Your employment gone. No state support. A wasteland around you, blow up by years of war. You have nothing but a freezing winter with a new group of drunk, violent, vengeful new set of neighbours, who cannot rebuild as they have no finance to do so (And even if they did, you are the bottom of the priority list)...
I don't know, it's an interesting point.
If say France / Germany / Spain invaded Britain again. Would you care? Would Macron be any worse than any other political leader you didn't vote for? Is patriotism just a construct invented by the ruling class to get you onside against a common enemy?
Asking "would you fight FOR your country just for patriotisms sake" is a different question to "would you fight AGAINST war crimes".
The reason I think @redthunder is wrong though is because in this case it's the Russian aggressors who are fighting for blind patriotism and the Ukrainians who generally have more reasons to be fighting.
If say France / Germany / Spain invaded Britain again. Would you care? Would Macron be any worse than any other political leader you didn’t vote for? Is patriotism just a construct invented by the ruling class to get you onside against a common enemy?
Yes I would, it would be a disaster for UK and Europe.
And let us not forget that Macron, Sanchez or Scholtz are not the murderous dictator that is Putin, or are they countries and cultures without significant social justice theme.
A concise round up from Phillips P. O'Brien: the assassination of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, which includes:
"This did not, however, stop people from taking the strangest takes on the Kirillov attack. Most notably, Trump’s Ukrainian envoy, General Kellogg, went on Fox News and criticized the attack, seemingly saying that not only was it not “smart”, but that it might have been illegal and an escalation."
"Its hard to know what to make of this. Targeted killing of senior military officers has been US policy since the US revolution. Arguably its been central to the US way of war."
Pokrovsk, Kurakhove and Kursk
"Well, this week the Russian advance on Pokrovsk slowed from even the glacial pace of a week ago..."
"Putin is trying to take whatever he can of the Donbas before Trump takes office—and after a major push in November is actually seeing less success. He is also trying to take back all of Kursk, as this will complicate any Trump attempt to freeze the war along the present lines."
Russia appears to have switched to taking empty hectares rather than hamlets that can be name-dropped for Russian public consumption. This will reduce troop losses and maximise land taken
"Russia cannot generate soldiers to cover such losses for that much longer. It will have to either lower the loss rate or its army will shrink. The same goes for much of their equipment. The Russian war economy actually has some major problems, and is struggling keeping up."
"It is worth noting that the Kursk front line is even more solid than that around Pokrovsk. Deep State* has made only very small changes in the last 3 weeks." (*open source mapping site)
It's worth a few minutes to read the whole article https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-112-ukraine-strikes
This article is an example of what other nations are learning from the invasion of Ukraine. Taiwan is taking a more holistic approach to preparations https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/taiwan-ukraine-learning-right-lessons
Rumours online that the crashed Azerbaijani airliner was shot down over Grozny by air defence.
A terrible loss of life, which is unofficially attributed to military action
Certainly lots of photos and video online, much of which could be anything from any aircraft, however...
FlightRadar 24 has published a blog, which indicates navigation problems due to heavy GPS jamming with a variable altitude and ground speed, which might indicate a loss of control due to hydraulic failure, rather than the official weather avoidance/birdstrike reasons https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/azerbaijan-airlines-e190-crashes-near-aktau/
The Telegraph has gone for it...
The plane was attempting to land at a Russian airport in Grozny, which at the time of landing was under attack by Ukrainian drones.
Baza, a Telegram channel with links to the Russian security services, said “the holes look like those left after a shelling or explosion with striking elements”.
Rybar, an influential Telegram channel with 1.3 million subscribers, also confirmed Baza’s description, saying the damage to the fuselage resembles “striking elements of an anti-aircraft missile”.
He continued: “The plane itself was heading to Grozny - at that time, a raid by launched Ukrainian UAVs was actually being repelled over the region. Several drones were shot down over Vladikavkaz in North Ossetia and neighboring Ingushetia.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/25/azerbaijan-airlines-crash-speculation-plane-accident/
It seems to be a fact that there was an attack by Ukraine's drones en route to the aircraft's destination airport, hence the GPS jamming and air defence action
“Russia cannot generate soldiers to cover such losses for that much longer. It will have to either lower the loss rate or its army will shrink. The same goes for much of their equipment. The Russian war economy actually has some major problems, and is struggling keeping up.”
How many times have we read this? How many more times will it be trotted out?
Meanwhile ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/26/support-for-ukraine-russia-war-yougov-poll-survey
And they just let aircraft fly through that? FFS...
RUMOR from Bluesky - the aircraft was hit over a 120 miles from any drone, and had spent a fair old while in the sky while they battled for control due to the damage, only to have the GPS jammed and miss runway....