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North Korea had the support of the Soviet Union and China. Russia has alienated everyone, even China is abandoning them.
No, China CCP has not abandon Russia that I am sure. Although sources say that some senior CCP members do not like/oppose Russia (Russia took a big chunk of their territory and they hate being taken for a ride), they would prefer Russia over any US alliance at their door step.
Russia sees itself as a global superpower, the only way to be taken seriously again will be to get rid of Putin. As long as he’s still there, Russia will be a pariah.
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
If Putin starts to use Katyusha rocket then he is not going to press the button. He might flatten many cities though. I am just a bit surprised that he starts to play his trump card this early. Something is not right. That's why I said he miscalculated.
Basically, the problem is that Putin is not the strategic genius many people assume. He's desperate and he has a weak hand. Invading Ukraine was so stupid that even as he was massing the invasion force on the borders and the U.S. was exposing his war plans, people still kept thinking it was just a bluff because it was such an idiotically stupid plan. He went into the war assuming it would be an easy victory and he would be the conquering hero who reasserted Russia's global superpower status. There was absolutely no thought given to what he would do if Ukraine didn't capitulate within a few days. Putin left himself no off-ramp, it was always victory or bust for him.
https://twitter.com/james_acton32/status/1497953000488275970
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
They won't be a superpower, but they will be taken seriously if they ditch Putin and start behaving sensibly. They have a seat at the U.N. Security Council and thousands of nuclear bombs, plus huge oil and mineral reserves. They will still be a major player when they rejoin the global economy.
Invading Ukraine was so stupid that even as he was massing the invasion force on the borders and the U.S. was exposing his war plans, people still kept thinking it was just a bluff because it was such an idiotically stupid plan
Yes, because he miscalculated thinking he could just walk in to change regime (probably convinced by his groupthink intel that many people support him - misinformation). Whoever fed him the information better run ... now.
I know it hasn't really gone as well as expected for Putin, assuming he thought it would done and dusted in 48hrs and a puppet government in place already, but I think it's still too early to claim it a defeat for him, its only been a few days and some big cities are now surrounded. Let's not count our chickens.
Assad was looking beaten at one stage but has held on by not giving up and getting nastier and nastier (and having Russian help of course, but Putin has not committed everything Russia has to this fight yet...)
It could get worse, even just in a conventional-only war.
.
.
Talking of puppet governments, there was a Russian MP on the BBC World Service yesterday who kept talking of a 'puppy state' I would really like to see that!
If they have to get rid of their leader to become superpower because the world say so, what kid of superpower is that? Superpower cannot be told or influenced.
Of course they can! China are being heavily influenced by the rest of the world right now FFS! 🤭
The way you talk is as if people readily forgive dictatorial indiscretions as long as everything is put right in the end... 🤷🏻♂️
We live in a world of consequences. Some may be more impervious to those consequences than others, and granted Putin is the most teflon coated individual that many of us have experienced in our lifetimes. But doesn't mean he won't have to face up to the indiscretions from the last few days, even if nothing else!
There's 3 ways out of this for Putin if this escalates any further... 1. Military Trial @ The Hague resulting in imprisonment for war crimes. 2. A military coup within the Russian government/kleptocracy resulting in imprisonment for crimes against the state (if he's lucky) or more likely his assasination. 3. He takes his own life...
It’s an empty threat.
Too much riding on the outcome to easily dismiss this as a bit of sabre rattling, and pushing Russia deep into a corner certainly isnt going to help the situation or the outcome.
Basically, the problem is that Putin is not the strategic genius many people assume.
I don't think anyone is assuming that, and to be honest he doesn't have to be any sort of a genius, he's the decision maker not the planning or even the execution of. Thats what the military high command do.
Putin can tell them what his goal is, then its up to them to plan and execute it.
But always remember who Putin was, a very successful KGB agent,with experience, and training in what we term MI5 and Mi6 and it's unlikely you are successful in those areas if you are completely useless. What you can describe him as is smart, and totally ruthless.
If you think of him as a clueless madman given to flights of fancy, then you underestimate your enemy and history has shown that never ends well.
Man removing landmine himself with customary fag in mouth.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497931328322514947
Surely can't be true though, why would the Russians be laying mines?
... but I think it’s still too early to claim it a defeat for him, its only been a few days and some big cities are now surrounded. Let’s not count our chickens.
Yes, too early to claim anything yet other than he has the upper hand at the moment.
(I think we are developing groupthink ...)
Surely can’t be true though, why would the Russians be laying mines?
That's what I thought. It would be more logical for the Ukrainians to lay mine to prevent Russian tanks moving in.
dyna-ti
Free Member
It’s an empty threat.Too much riding on the outcome to easily dismiss this as a bit of sabre rattling, and pushing Russia deep into a corner certainly isnt going to help the situation or the outcome.
He knows full well that the West wouldn't launch first. So if he does, knowing the inevitable retaliation to come, what does he gain?
The only way a scenario like that works out is if (hypothetically) he is mad as a hatter/terminally ill and wants to take the world with him... If that's the case then nothing the West can do will stop that so best to assume that isn't the case and work from there.
So, if he isn't mad/ ill and going to launch anyway... What does he gain by launching?
He could go on state TV I guess minutes before impact and tell them he "won the argument" I suppose?
That's a reasonable way to look at this in my opinion.
It's a bluff and it's entirely part of his MO.
It wasn’t very long ago that people were insisting that the troops amassed near the border ready for invasion were just part of a bluff, that Putin wouldn’t actually try and push troops further into Ukraine.
Man removing landmine himself with customary fag in mouth.
I was expecting him to nonchalantly toss it, discuss style, into a ditch! 😂
If you think of him as a clueless madman given to flights of fancy, then you underestimate your enemy and history has shown that never ends well.
I don't think anybody has said that. There's a whole spectrum of grey inbetween unhinged madman and strategic genius here... But Putin isn't playing to his own strengths here, lets be honest. He is arguably the world expert at espionage, subversion, smoke and mirrors style tactics and general foul play. What he isn't is an expert military tactician, and when pushed into making mistakes, he has been shown to react with emotion quite unbefitting of someone possessing such strategic excellence in other areas.
But then this is what makes him so dangerous... He's especially predictable at what he is good at, but he's unpredictably batshit crazy when he's operating out of his field of expertise, especially when you also consider that as a considerable narcissist he surrounds himself by yes men, which doesn't bode well when trying to fill in skills gaps in areas that you are lacking yourself!
But always remember who Putin was, a very successful KGB agent,with experience, and training in what we term MI5 and Mi6 and it’s unlikely you are successful in those areas if you are completely useless.
He was also a taxi driver. Status isn’t static.
Should we start a Go Fund Me page for Putin to fund a therapist?
I think we are developing groupthink
Yeah we are.
I was expecting him to nonchalantly toss it, discuss style, into a ditch!
I honestly was expecting it to go off 🙁
Slight distraction ...
@ Mboy
Of course they can! China are being heavily influenced by the rest of the world right now FFS!
No, China CCP wants the world to think they are influenced because that's the best way for them to get in without being noticed and to dominate indirectly (manufacturing, technology etc).
I think we are developing groupthink
Yeah we are.
We are way ahead of ourselves by convincing Putin's defeat.
He was also a taxi driver. Status isn’t static.
Should we start a Go Fund Me page for Putin to fund a therapist?
Is this your solution to this crisis ?
So he was a taxi driver, but is it often taxi drivers rise to the very top of the Russian political hierarchy. Ergo any thoughts anyone might have about did he or did he not con a few tourists and overcharge them is pretty much irrelevant at this stage of the proceedings.
he’s unpredictably batshit crazy when he’s operating out of his field of expertise, especially when you also consider that as a considerable narcissist he surrounds himself by yes men, which doesn’t bode well when trying to fill in skills gaps in areas that you are lacking yourself!
I think we can only hope thats the case, and from reading how Russian politics went int he early to mid 2oth century, especially under stalin, what we can hope for is he is deposed by someone under his command, as it appears was the norm during that time.
Look at Krustov Leader of the party, but under Stalin he rose to prominence by effectively executing all his rivals, many of whom were friends and colleagues.
Perhaps that now is our only option or hope, that someone in the military steps in, arrests and its a 3 minute trial and a bullet to the forehead. Carried out in order to save Russia from his mistakes.
You misunderstand.
My point is that it’s not that relevant what someone was or wasn’t. Capability and capacity fluctuates. He might have vascular dementia, alzheimers, whatever.
And no, I don’t have a solution. Nobody does here.
kelvin
Full Member
It wasn’t very long ago that people were insisting that the troops amassed near the border ready for invasion were just part of a bluff, that Putin wouldn’t actually try and push troops further into Ukraine.
I think that's a very different scenario with far lower stakes for himself and others (no disrespect to the Ukrainians there!) and there was a definite "will he/ won't he" element to it that he has used for years. Was anyone truly shocked when he did invade? The US had been telling everyone for weeks he was going to.
Also with Ukraine, with a presumed easy victory, there was much to gain, in Putin's mind anyway. Prestige and sewing further division in the West etc etc.
What does he gain by launching nukes in a first strike scenario? Power and prestige are measured by others. If they and almost everyone else is dead he can be the most powerful ruler in his bunker till provisions run out I suppose.
He wants more than anything to survive this conflict. If he doesn't how will he be able to steer his beloved Russia into becoming a new USSR?
Sorry mboy ,
Amongst other things, Chewkw has been talking about how the Biden administration have been talking to Chima with a view to finding a plausible exit strategy for Putin, looking for an outcome that would suit all 3 superpowers. It's a fourth option to add to your list.
I will admit that the three options you present have a lovely moral arc to them and I would be happy to see any of them realised but most of what we're talking about on this thread is after the fact, how we see things changes on a daily basis and in the heat of battle it's hard to distinguish between what we think might happen and what we want to happen.
Chewkw on the other hand has been pretty consistent. Whilst we're watching a battle on the streets he's talking about the battle behind the scenes between the 3 superpowers, he's repeating his long held position whilst we're reacting to what we see on TV.
No you are right, there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one, but more than likely only if it lists towards what Russia wants.
What happens then we dont know. We can only hope it stops the war. But if Russia is so damaged by these actions, even if the Ukraine was to capitulate today, Russia is now at such low standing there's little route for them to take with Putin still in leadership.
If you/we/they have to say Russia has won, then Russia has won, there's no other routes to take. We cannot interfere directly, for fear of what Russia might do , but if we continue to arm the Ukrainians, that will prolong the fighting until all we see on the news is dead civilians, and even then there's still nothing we can do is stand idly by in utter dismay.
the Ukraine
I wouldn't say that to Ukrainians right now.
Not being a pedant, it's actually pretty relevant at the moment.
Was anyone truly shocked when he did invade? The US had been telling everyone for weeks he was going to.
Just go back a week or two, the internet was full of people saying that Putin was just bluffing and the U.S. intelligence dumps were just propaganda to advance NATO aggression. When Putin pretended he was recalling his troops, they all erupted with, "Told you so." Strange how quiet they have all gone now.
^^ I'm not saying a word.👍😉
On another note, just read this article regarding the incredible effect Putin's war has had on Germany.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60549916
Putin's really succeeded in unifying Europe in a way we could never have imagined in a matter of days.
I bet he didn't see it coming either!
Excellent Twitter thread about why the Russian military is so weak. Again, Putin is not the strategic genius that people mistake him for, he's used to dealing on a tactical level with small-scale operations:
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1498016412253798401
Agree about the Europe unification.
"If you/we/they have to say Russia has won, then Russia has won"
I think the colloquial term for that kind of win is 'a Verstappen'.
No you are right, there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one, but more than likely only if it lists towards what Russia wants.
Which is basically what happened in Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk (Rhineland, Sudetenland, Chezchoslovakia in the 1930s, there are a lot of parallels)
If we offer Putin any solution other than withdrawing then he will be emboldened and will try again.
If we don't face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I've ever seen him, when do we?
If he makes the same nuclear threats on the way to Vilnius or Talin, or Berlin would we do anything anything then?
As risky as it might be this is the time the West has to finally stand up to him. If only we had seen a sanction response like this in 2014 we might not be here, but we are, and giving way again is not an option.
Good point. If you’re old now, your grandparents could have been there.
Not even that old. I am mid-40s and my father’s uncle was in the Royal Scots at Passchendaele.
there is no solution in this other than a diplomatic one
Putin has had years and years of diplomatic off-ramps to avoid situations like this. Every time he has simply pushed ahead on the basis that democracies are weak and will never actually do anything about his behaviour. That led him to keep escalating. His attempts at "negotiating" over the last couple of months were just to make proposals that he knew NATO would not accept and then complain when they were rejected. A diplomatic solution would require him to back down and accept offers that he deliberately and publicly rejected before. He will have to accept Ukrainian sovereignty (and probably NATO membership now). If his army is publicly defeated in Ukraine, Georgia and other regions will probably retake disputed regions and also push for NATO membership and it will be difficult for Western countries to support Ukraine but reject Georgian calls for support. A diplomatic solution will only be possible if Putin accepts defeat (which he will not do) or the Russian people boot him out.
Just go back a week or two, the internet was full of people saying that Putin was just bluffing and the U.S. intelligence dumps were just propaganda to advance NATO aggression. When Putin pretended he was recalling his troops, they all erupted with, “Told you so.” Strange how quiet they have all gone now.
I think it is more of a case that they hoped it was all a bluff to get NATO to given assurances on paper that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO.Bluff does work. Everyone hoped it was a case of that.
Russia obviously felt from watching the rhetoric in the western media that that was never going to be forthcoming and so kicked things off.
People have hope conflict wont erupt.
All that matters now is solving the problem currently at hand. And sorry to say, but we can only look at this in a realist and pragmatic sense.
If we don’t face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I’ve ever seen him, when do we?
We don't. We're left in a position because nuclear war is the other option on the table.
It's very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
Because Russia is the largest holder of Nuclear weapons, and now threatening to use them. We can do nothing but back off.
With the big Nuclear powers its all been a game of let's be nice to each other, because due to the formation of these weapons there is no other choice.
Remember how the lets be nice to each other thread went ?, that didnt end well and that just a small forum full of cyclists, not superpowers facing off to each other with the fate of the world hanging in the balance.
Ra Ra Vlad Putin..... Hopefully Vlad goes the same way as Ras'.
Whatever happens down the line NATO and Western Europe in general has been strengthened enormously by this conflict. The absolute opposite of what the Russian regime (of one) wanted.
When the Berlin Wall fell they thought it was all over. It wasn't.
If the West focuses all of it's attention on crushing Putin they could be making the same mistake that they made 30 years ago.
As it is, European spending on defence and cooperation looks like going through the roof and the Russian army doesn't look all that good. Factors that go some way to answering the question; 'what will stop Putin from expanding his ambitions in the future?'
Putin has kicked off a non nuclear arms race. For generations the myth has always been that the overwhelming might of Russian land forces would sweep over western Europe in a matter of days. That myth has been well and truly busted, for both sides.
That's why Putin has started talking about the red button, its all he has left. Rocket Man.
It’s very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
No, but we are just some people speculating on the Internet.
Biden, Johnson, Macron et al do have to make those calls. Hopefully they are much better informed and advised than we are, I would love to know what intelligence they are getting
News stories I've spotted:
Brewery making molotov cocktails https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20220227-ukrainian-brewery-switches-from-beer-to-molotov-cocktails
Protests in Minsk again,it's not just Russia https://mobile.twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497916958473392137
Just in case anyone still believes the "aggressive NATO expansion" nonsense that Putin used as his pretext.
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1497186496574812161
Don't make Molotov Cocktails like ^that.
Close the top - tie the accelerant round the neck.
Fill no more than 2/3 to make the bottle more likely to break.
dyna-ti
I think it is more of a case that they hoped it was all a bluff to get NATO to given assurances on paper that Ukraine would not be allowed into NATO.Bluff does work. Everyone hoped it was a case of that.
Russia obviously felt from watching the rhetoric in the western media that that was never going to be forthcoming and so kicked things off.
Putin was going to "kick off" whatever the West did. NATO were never going to give that assurance and Putin knew it. It was just another "excuse" for invasion. I'm sure that even if they had, Ukraine would have still been invaded as it has now, or in the near future for its totally made up "ethnic cleansing" or whatever reason Putin dreamt up the night before.
If we don’t face him down now, when he appears to be at the most vulnerable I’ve ever seen him, when do we?
We don’t. We’re left in a position because nuclear war is the other option on the table.
He's being faced down right now, in ukraine and globally. It's the very reason he's threatening us with a big stick. A stick that he knows full well will rebound off us and then hit him in the head too, if used.
Putin was always going to push and push, we stand our ground now or we just end up in the same position when he invades another country, then another. In a way we created this devil, he should never have been allowed to act with utter impunity for so long. The parallel with the 30's is startling.
Because Russia is the largest holder of Nuclear weapons, and now threatening to use them. We can do nothing but back off.
Completely irrelevant. So he can nuke the world 4 times over when we can only nuke it twice? Makes zero difference. We and he are just as dead.
It’s very easy to say lets call his bluff, but have you or I the right to make such a drastic call, and risk the deaths of billions ?
There is a very pressing argument to be made for calling his bluff. Simply that it is inevitable and the outcome of the bluff is likely to be worse as he gets older and even more belligerent. Just how much devastation do we put up with before we say to Putin, "go on then but you won't be alive to gloat either, nor your people."
Now... 10 years from now... the difficult choice will have to be made. However I am very glad I am not the one deciding this. Far cleverer people than I am, hopefully. Though I suspect they are coming up with a similar long term conclusion.
Remember how the lets be nice to each other thread went ?, that didnt end well and that just a small forum full of cyclists, not superpowers facing off to each other with the fate of the world hanging in the balance.
That's the point, it gets tetchy on here because, in relative terms, the stakes are tiny.
Putin doesn't care about the world in the way we might do. He does care about himself though (perhaps even his family, it's possible...), his power, his wealth... heck, even for his country/citizens in some ****ed up way... but mostly about himself.
He'll be thinking about his own personal and political survival tonight, none of which include launching nukes.
Now… 10 years from now… the difficult choice will have to be made. However I am very glad I am not the one deciding this. Far cleverer people than I am, hopefully. Though I suspect they are coming up with a similar long term conclusion.
This point out of all you've said worries me the most. It is a step we have to take or the world be be held at ransom.
We have China, which isnt a nice country. Human right there are terrible and yet we deal with them daily. At some point were going to have to say to them to enough is enough, and they really really arent going to be happy bunnies about it.
I dont want to frighten anyone, but i fear for the future.
Just in case anyone still believes the “aggressive NATO expansion” nonsense that Putin used as his pretext.
Theres been plenty of articles Thols about the stupidity of NATO expansion. Problem is if its presented its immediately dismissed, because some have their view and wont be dissuaded.
To move forward wee have to look at causes and how we got into this situation. It's no good blaming one side alone, no matter how deranged their motives appear. To get the full picture of any situation you need to look at all sides of the argument.
The same rational exists in world politics or on which new 29er sus to buy.
For example, in this thread some presented views, and others have presented views and neither agree because almost like brinkmanship, neither wants to blink first, accept they are , well not wrong, but not looking at both sides of the coin.
One person presents a Guardian article, the other dismisses it citing that particular reporter is no good, or bias. But the truth is they're just dismissing it, rather than bothering to read the words or narrative thats been set out.
So you shouldn't readily dismiss any written word on this crisis, but by looking,reading it it does give you the realist view.
For example. There have been a number of members citing FP( Foreign Policy) as we must take out opinions from somewhere, nobody here has in the last week become an expert on eastern European geopolitics.
So from FP on this crisis we have an article from Stephen Walt. Now I've no idea who exactly he is. And i doubt anyone here really does either, certainly not to readily dismiss his writing,We have to be careful not to fall into the trap on not understanding that there are more points to the equation, so are blind to all the facts.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19/ukraine-russia-nato-crisis-liberal-illusions/
It's a longish article. So I would expect anyone reading it to take 15 minutes to read and absorb all thats being said.
In this article it mentions members of the US political system, all of whom accept that NATO expansion is not a good idea, and can foresee the possible problems it can bring. And just the fact that Henry Kissinger was initially one of them adds credence to this point
As follows
" several prominent U.S. experts—including diplomat George Kennan, author Michael Mandelbaum, and former defense secretary William Perry—opposed enlargement from the start. Then-Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger were initially opposed for the same reasons, though both later shifted their positions and joined the pro-enlargement bandwagon."
Although at least Kissinger and Talbott changed their stance, the initial agreement that NATO expansion causing problems is still accepted as fact.
I would say that everyone presented in the article, including the writer have spent much of their lives pondering these questions and are experts in their field. To readily ignore such opinions you place yourself and your own opinion of the situation above that of their lifetime experience,and forgive me if im wrong, but there are no political heavyweights in this forum.
We can all take an interest in the subject, but it is a fleeting one as we get back on the things that concern us personally.
Now I must a bed. I've to be up early to catch the post office where my new V4 brake has been delivered, after the parcel force guy completely lied and said i was out on Thursday, when in fact i was in. Such are the important matters I face outwith my tiny political knowledge.
So much for sleepybys
Putin doesn’t care about the world in the way we might do. He does care about himself though (perhaps even his family, it’s possible…), his power, his wealth… heck, even for his country/citizens in some ****ed up way… but mostly about himself.
He’ll be thinking about his own personal and political survival tonight, none of which include launching nukes.
I hoe you are right. But Putin is an authoritarian an autocrat. He is dangerous and once said, that he would rather there be no world, than a world without Russia.
And that was when his mood was buoyant. Not the incredible stress he'll be under currentlty.
I have a set of four options that was presented in some biography or other(tried to find it earlier) presented by a Russian general of the options Russia has in the point of a nuclear exchange. They are to do with what happens in an 'if scenario'. If be preemptive strike, or if we launch in retaliation, if X number of missiles are intercepted etc etc. No outlook left us with any options, both Russia and US economies would be smashed to the point both countries would no longer have a say on the world stage, and power would shift from US/EU/Russia to China, India and Brazil
I'll try to find it tomorrow, but it doesnt make for light reading.
.
Somebody stop the planet, I want to get off.
Yeah, I need to get to bed now too. My eyes are actually blurry they are so tired.
Good luck with the V4's, apologies if I came across belligerent.👍
I know enough to know I don't know enough. Not even close.😁
Chewkw on the other hand has been pretty consistent. Whilst we’re watching a battle on the streets he’s talking about the battle behind the scenes between the 3 superpowers, he’s repeating his long held position whilst we’re reacting to what we see on TV.
I’m fully well considering what is going on behind the scenes, I’d suggest from much of the colloquial language on here where “Russia” is used rather than “Putin”, and Russia is talked about as if it has a fully stable government and Putin has its full support (or at least is too scared to actually do anything about him), then you’re ignoring the glaringly obvious I’m afraid…
I’ll repeat my point about the Russian Revolution in 1917… Putin is a modern day Tsar, and ostensibly quite a lot worse than the last Royal family in Russia. Misinformation was rife then, but don’t think that a big ship won’t be turned and when it does turn, that retribution won’t be swift and lasting…
Putin is but one man. So he’s the nastiest ****er of the lot of them… And…? 🤷🏻♂️ We are talking about a nation of some severely nasty people as and when they want to be, and I can assure you that not one of those nasty people believes MAD will be a good option for their future way of life… Imagine what’s going through the minds of Russian Mafia bosses right now? The Oligarchs? Senior Ministers in Putins administration that have a little more political self awareness than Putin does…? There will be a very significant price on Putins head right now in the Russian underworld, and that price will be going up significantly every day, it’s just that we don’t know about it. Once the price goes up enough, you only need to think about a John Wick 3 esque scenario where all the hitmen of the underworld are fighting each other for the chance to be the one that collects the bounty! 🤷🏻♂️
There will be protocols in place to stop Putin from gaining full access to the launch codes. In many ways it has suited Russia for a long time now for the West to think they have a potential unhinged individual at the helm, so they’ve let him go about his business pretty much unchecked, making idol threats as and when he feels like it as the chances of the West calling his bluff have increasingly diminished. But 150m Russian citizens don’t want MAD!!! Russias government doesn’t want MAD. Putin may not be the puppet that many other countries have as a front man, but there will be a way of removing him from within should he overstep the mark one time too many, or the price on his head becomes large enough.
The world is not a nice place… And don’t think for one second that the CIA won’t have sources on the ground in the Russian underworld keeping them abreast of all this information, and will be poised to strike with whatever resources necessary to support any internal struggles within the Russian government/mafia/kleptocracy that may be required… After all they have financed enough military coups the world over already, this one wouldn’t be particularly difficult to justify on the grander scale of things…
It’s a bluff and it’s entirely part of his MO.
I hope so because way too many people are ignoring
He is dangerous and once said, that he would rather there be no world, than a world without Russia.
Apparently been repeated by the presenter on some Russian state TV show. There is a real danger of a doomsday cult here.
I've really enjoyed chewkw's input here - that Eastern "saving face" approach isn't one I'm comfortable with but anything that offers a way for a madman to de-escalate the situation needs attention.
(Woke up at 4.30 worrying about going back to work today after a week off, so cheering myself up reading this thread. At least I have woken up and have a job and a life to be worrying about)
I’ve really enjoyed chewkw’s input here – that Eastern “saving face” approach isn’t one I’m comfortable with but anything that offers a way for a madman to de-escalate the situation needs attention.
It's very difficult to see how this doesnt drag out into a long viscous insurgency, it feels like the Ukrainians have done a decent job of planning for this and have enough sense of national identity that no puppet government can survive without large scale occupation forces. And, if even a fraction of the pro Ukrainian media output is correct it's going to be a very hostile environment. I dont buy into the "its Natos fault" line, not least because those countries chose to join NATO because of the existential threat a reinvigorated Russia would, and now evidently does pose. If the Russian leadership dropped imperialist tendencies all of this dangerous confrontation evaporates, as it did with the western European countries in the previous century.
There will be protocols in place to stop Putin from gaining full access to the launch codes.
No, there will not be. Everyone in the Russian government and military serves at Putin's pleasure. He has eliminated anyone who would challenge him, that's why he so badly overestimated Russian military prowness - nobody would have been brave enough to tell him he was making a mistake.
The thing is that he doesn't actually have a big button on his desk that launches the missiles. All he can do is to send orders to the guys in the missile silos and submarines to launch. They have to confirm that it is a genuine order and then cooperate to actually fire the missiles. All those people lower down the chain of command will know that if they launch an attack on NATO, their families will be incinerated in the counter-strike. That's why Biden didn't put U.S. nuclear forces on alert - it demonstrates that the U.S. is not preparing a nuclear strike so that the Russian military understand that going nuclear is entirely on them, not a retaliation for a U.S. attack.
Good posts both piemonster and thols. Unverified reports of Russian soldiers being threatened with execution if they don’t fight. Also Belorussians enquiring about political asylum if they surrender. May not be true but fact that people even consider it might be tells you something about the state of Russian morale I think.
All those people lower down the chain of command will know that if they launch an attack on NATO, their families will be incinerated in the counter-strike.
But what if he ups the ante and fires a nuke into the North sea, as suggested in this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140 ??
What would NATO do then???
I dont buy into the “its Natos fault” line
Nobody really does, it's a code for, "I don't like America/Joe Biden and I want to see them humiliated but I'm going to pretend it's something else."
But what if he ups the ante and fires a nuke into the North sea, as suggested in this https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60551140 ??
What would NATO do then???
Warn people not to eat fish and make it clear that NATO will not launch a first strike on Russia.
Try to appeal to the ruling elites to get rid. May or may not work, but in that situation would have to be worth a try. That’s if they had not already deposed him following him giving the order. As already said though there is a lot of speculation on this thread (as everywhere) and we are not there yet. If it does get that far then it may already be too late I’m afraid.
Russia interest rates up from 9.5% to 20%
At what point do the Russian people no longer accept Putin?
Try to appeal to the people and get them to get rid of both him and the other ruling elites.
Putin and the oligarchs have screwed over the country, given it massive wealth indifference and placed power amongst the very, very few. Maybe the ordinary people need to know that they _can_ make a difference.
Warn people not to eat fish
But would 'NATO' stop supporting Ukraine?
Agree thols. It's the US that has spent 10s of billions of dollars in Ukraine trying to gain influence (and weaken Russias) since the 90s not NATO.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
Try to appeal to the people and get them to get rid of both him and the other ruling elites.
Don’t worry, Boris is on the case speaking Russian to them and appealing to their better nature. Worth a crack I suppose.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?
Someone might be able to clarify that.
There was some talk of that in the early 2000’s I believe, but Putin decided to move in the opposite direction…. NATO membership I mean.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO? Problem solved!
iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?
Someone might be able to clarify that.
That qas the reason given when they actually did apply
For those thinking the Russian attack isn’t going to plan, I’d suggest it may well be.
Send in a smaller number of ground troops, allow as many civilians to leave the cities as possible in a short period of time. Then bring in the full might of the artillery and Air Force.
Watching on the news the impression is that the Russians have only been softening up the Ukrainians. Removing some of the Ukrainian defences but generally not going all out on attempting to take cities yet. I fear there will soon be a devastating artillery attack on the cities. I’d also suggest Putin knew this was never going to be over in the first weekend, the first weekend was about showing intent, but allowing the civilians to leave. He will now be able to blame the Ukrainian government for civilian losses.
If the Ukrainian government meet with their Russian counterparts and they cede to any Russian demands, Putin will be the hero who took on the Nazi regime and defeated them with minimal military might. If the Ukrainian government do not meet Putin’s demands I can see things escalating quickly.
Maybe we should let Russia join NATO?
That actually looked like a serious possibility back in the 90s. Problem is, it would have required Russia to accept that it was just a powerful member of the EU and NATO along with all the constraints that come with that, not a global power. American arrogance didn't help, Russia saw that and wanted to be a superpower too. The other former members of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact were utterly sick of being dominated by Russia and wanted no part of a new Russian dominated order so they were keen to join the EU and NATO as protection against Russian dominance. Once those countries rejected Russia, NATO and the EU just became symbols of Russian humiliation so Putin has set out methodically to undermine liberal democracies. The unprovoked attack on Ukraine has made it very clear to everyone that Russia's grievances were just a cover for trying to resurrect the old Russian Empire.
Russia interest rates up from 9.5% to 20%
At what point do the Russian people no longer accept Putin?
The Russians have a long, long history of suffering stoicly. It's in thier DNA it seems.
As for them running out of patience with PooTin, remember the majority are listening to the 'NATO is the bad guy, we're defending you. This would have happened anyway, we're just responding as we can" narrative.
PooTin also has police in his pocket. If, and it's a big if, people can get out on the street to protest then things might change as the word spreads about PooTin's lies - but even then, you're up against 30-100 years of this narrative.
Can we see trump doing a Kissinger?
Peace in our time, putin no doubt gets a bit of territory ,trump gets re-elected , putin has his stooge back.
Watching on the news the impression is that the
RussiansUkrainians have only been softening up theUkrainiansRussians.
FTFY. The dead giveaway is that the Ukrainian air defenses seem to be still operating. Destroying those would surely have been the absolute highest priority before anything else.
It’s the US that has spent 10s of billions of dollars in Ukraine trying to gain influence (and weaken Russias) since the 90s not NATO.
The Ukrainians were reluctant to lose all their nuclear weapons (for the reasons you see today), yet USA and Russia had agreed above their heads that all the weapons would be decommissioned, and the warheads sent to Russia. To persuade them to disarm the USA made a series of economic/financial commitments (call them bribes if you want), alongside decommissioning help.
Can we see trump doing a Kissinger?
You do understand that Trump is no longer president and has no authority to negotiate foreign policy. Biden can appoint a former president as an envoy, but negotiating with a foreign leader without being authorized is illegal. So, can you see Joe Biden appointing Trump as an envoy? Nope, didn't think so.
For those thinking the Russian attack isn’t going to plan
I dont believe anyone posting here knows what the plan is to know whether it going or not.
Will be interesting to see how things play out in Belarus - if the army is in Ukraine will Lukashenko be able to suppress another rising?
The dead giveaway is that the Ukrainian air defenses seem to be still operating.
Yes, and the lines of smouldering tanks and the lost Russian planes and so on. That's a gift to Zelensky.
Here's an article saying that a large part of the pro Ukrainian response is down to Zelensky's personal charisma, dedication and courage. Impressive if so.
the initial agreement that NATO expansion causing problems is still accepted as fact.
I think the issue I have with the "don't poke the bear with a stick" theory is that it's built on so many assumptions in the 90's That the former soviet politicians would or could be guaranteed to accept democratisation as a political state going forward, that they would want to join "global institutions" as a relatively new nation that would take time to mature, that it's systems of social welfare, crime management, healthcare and so on would be priorities, and the somewhat naïve notion that of this would naturally fall into place. When in fact right from the get go (Yeltsin included) their reaction to say; independence (to bring this back to the matter in hand) from their former satellite sates was violent and overwhelming military intervention. Their only view of any policy area was to eithre control it totally or if that's not possible; destroy it.
The former soviet union's leadership and political classes have never demonstrated that it at any point since the fall of the soviet republic that they want to be anything other than exactly what it was before it's collapse. It's interesting reading Russian history experts who have been saying that looking at Russian political history it's pretty much the same model over again,; A few autocrats and their hangers on at the very top controlling everything, then everyone else. This is the model from Tsars Alexander through Nicholas II through Stalin to Putin.
Whether you take a Morganthau Jr or Stimpson view of what to do with failed former Autocratic/Fascist dictatorship country (for all you 2nd WW fans) is for another debate I guess.
Peace talks starting at 9AM GMT. Im not hopeful of any progress, but its a start at least.
iirc, Russia doesnt meet the minimum requirements for entry. Basically as a result of being a dictatorship?
Doesn't seem to be a problem for Turkey.
I think the big question in all this at the moment is how long can Putin sustain a war? Cause there are various ways to obtain a surrender without actually going into the cities and taking them street by street in a head on fight. I heard someone mention on one of the channels that Putin might have changed his strategy towards siege warfare, which is particularly grim sounding tbh.
Difficult to get a picture of what's actually happening though, I'm sure the Ukrainians are doing alright, but the picture I think we are getting is probably more optimistic than reality I'd imagine though. I doubt Putin has underestimated things as much as people are suggesting he has(he continually said previous to the war, that you can't predict how things will turn out and about being reactive in such situations). I doubt very much he thought he'd be welcomed as a liberator, although I do think he's probably going slower than he did think. I think his shout about putting the nukes to a higher state of alertness, suggests he's now switched to longer term thinking maybe? And is just another stern warning to keep your nose out to other countries?
But even if things are taking longer than he expected, does sound like he's looking to encircle cities, and completely take the south from Crimea to Donbas along the coast at least. Mariupol looks particularly dodgy at the minute, from looking at a map of areas the russian have took.
I think how it plays in Russia and how much sanctions affect them in Russia will be important, but not sure that'll be quick or if that will definitely happen though, we are talking revolution type stuff there.
So yeah, big question is how long can Putin maintain war? Who knows, I know nothing about war, just thinking out loud really.
I dont believe anyone posting here knows what the plan is to know whether it going or not.
I think most folks can take a pretty accurate guess that this is not going how the RF armed forces predicted. Now, whether that's because they're a paper tiger, or whether it's hubris remains open to interpretation.
I think the major source of confusion from the military experts and intelligence sources on Twitter and places like this is one of not; Have they made a hash of it, but Why?
@piemonster I have a friend who is married to a Russian. They don't live there but her family are only 30ks from the Ukraine border. Last I heard he was trying to fly them out. Not had many political chats but in general they don't trust the western media.
So yeah, big question is how long can Putin maintain war?
My view (from the cheap seats) is that Putin expected the Ukrainians to roll over, the West to rage impotently, ride out any limited sanction he thought they'd impose - given that we "need his gas" and get back to normal. It's worked before (see Crimea 2014) so why not this time?
The anti-war protests in Russia are a massive unexpected positive for me & imo as much of a worry for Putin as what's going on in Ukraine.
Cheers ctk
@grum (which auto corrects to grumpy)
Doesn’t seem to be a problem for Turkey.
That's actually piqued my interest as to what sort of Government Turkey had on joining, no real idea of Turkey in 1952. I'd guess presently it's very much a case of strategic value trumps anything else.
Subject aside which is in every respect, very grim, contributions to this thread have been very thought provoking (he said, sitting on the German / Swiss border).
All this military equipment as aid. How does that get in and distributed? Rail? Trucks? Night air drops?