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Overnight coup to remove him? 🤞”
binners, have you checked the odds / laid a bet yet?
That brought a welcome chuckle.
Which must be disappointing for our Putineers. They seemed to believe everything that was fired their way by Russian bots last week.
Seriously, war and a huge humanitarian crisis on our doorstep, with a madman threatening to go nuclear, and baiting forum members is a priority for some?
Christ if even the Swiss have turned against him he’s a dead man walking. Frankly what happens tonight is now a bit of an irrelevance. All those oligarchs with money they can’t access will surely act? It is truly terrible that so many lives are going to be lost in the next few hours for no purpose whatsoever. Makes me feel quite ill actually.
It’s often said that war is pointless but this one is even more pointless than most.
New tractor for the farm?
It’s often said that war is pointless but this one is even more pointless than most.
Sadly we seem to need a pointless one every decade or two to reiterate the point. Hopefully this one will really drive it home for the current generation like Iraq and Afghanistan have for the two before.
The rest of Europe have agreed to take all Ukrainian refugees without them having to claim asylum.
"The rest of Europe have agreed to take all Ukrainian refugees without them having to claim asylum."
Has Pritti Patel been citing this as a Brexit benefit?
Good to see Switzerland thinking about getting off the fence.
So it's '...very probable' they will sanction Russia and freeze assets when they meet on Monday.
Why not prioritise this - emergency meeting today with immediate announcement?
How much do Russians know about the wealth of oligarchs and industrial scale kleptocracy carried out by the ruling elite?
Not much, I suspect, and nothing like enough; how will they react when they find out about that and vlad being richest person on earth?
That money should have been used to improve Russian society and the lives of it's citizens.
There were multiple reasons for Khrushchev's sudden downfall. It was not a coup, because it followed the Central Committee procedures for naming leadership that Khrushchev had himself introduced. As William Tompson has noted, there were no show trials, no ritual attacks, no public confessions, and no executions.[270] For most members of the Central Committee, there was growing annoyance with his arbitrary decision-making and lack of collegiality. They complained about the unwieldy bureaucracy that Khrushchev had fostered. These bureaucrats were now making the real decisions leaving the Party much less important, especially when Khrushchev circumvented local party leaders with his own specialized troubleshooters. Many were angry with his high-handed disregard for Central Committee procedures, including those he himself had been responsible for introducing. Foreign policy issues were not a major factor in his removal because the leadership agreed with his policies. The military was not involved in the removal but the KGB was a key center of opposition. Agriculture was his signature field and the glaring failure of massive efforts to improve agriculture was the most serious domestic issue, and resulted in hostile public opinion regarding food shortages.[271] In the end Khrushchev was too old and tired, and paid less and less attention to maintaining his political base, while his enemies carefully and systematically assembled their irresistible coalition in the Party's Central Committee.[272][273]
The rest of Europe have agreed to take all Ukrainian refugees without them having to claim asylum.
Meanwhile the UK won’t even offer a realistic route to a visa for Ukrainians with British connections. This is a national disgrace.
How much do Russians know about the wealth of oligarchs and industrial scale kleptocracy carried out by the ruling elite?
Probably more than you’d expect, and there was a suggestion that these actions won’t be that unpopular with the Russian in the street.
I see the EU is banning RT for promoting 'misinformation'.
On the face of it, this may seem reasonable, but I'm very suspicious of the state (or any form of power) appointing itself as the supreme arbitrator of truth in this way. The idea that the state can keep us safe by banning lies is for simpletons. This is very much an authoritarian move in keeping with the post-Trump era where liberal people have traded principles for sides.
I see the EU is banning RT for promoting ‘misinformation’.
On the face of it, this may seem reasonable, but I’m very suspicious of the state (or any form of power) appointing itself as the supreme arbitrator of truth in this way. The idea that the state can keep us safe by banning lies is for simpletons. This is very much an authoritarian move in keeping with the post-Trump era where liberal people have traded principles for sides.
Perhaps and I'd normally agree with that, however we are in a crisis state right now and misinformation carries too high a danger to allow it to go unchecked.
however we are in a crisis state
I'd prefer to have a very high bar indeed for constitutes a 'crisis'. WW2, for example, would probably qualify. This not so much.
After all, if you abandon liberal principles under any form of stress then they don't mean much.
Perhaps and I’d normally agree with that, however we are in a crisis state right now and misinformation carries too high a danger to allow it to go unchecked.
This.
Desperate times, desperate measures. Blocking "enemy" misinformation intended to support and justify the invasion of a democratic country seems reasonable to me.
Edit
I’d prefer to have a very high bar indeed for constitutes a ‘crisis’. WW2, for example, would probably qualify. This not so much.
We are a madmans wish away from WW3.
Not going to lose too much sleep about restricting the state controlled media mouthpiece of a dictatorship which has just invaded a European sovereign state.
Tractor has large Z on it, denoting Russian tops from the North, AFAIK.
RT is not alternative news it is simply propaganda. Ban it.
This is every bit as big a crisis as we faced in 1939, with the consequences potentially even more catastrophic if one wrong move is made.
Anyone else noticed that the Russian-Ukrainian talks are going to happen in Pripyat?
That Pripyat.
I am slightly concerned that a lot of information we are getting is (understandably) anti-Russian. There is a lot of propaganda going on at the moment & I think we need to be aware what the first casualty of war is. I don’t think we have enough information to say that the Russian invasion is going all that badly. After all, it’s only been 2 days or so and they have already surrounded the enemy capital.. it took Hitler over a month to take Paris at that was considered to be an incredible feat of lightning war. Ukraine is larger than France I believe.
RT is not alternative news it is simply propaganda. Ban it.
Many would say the same about CNN.
"This is very much an authoritarian move in keeping with the post-Trump era where liberal people have traded principles for sides."
I know which side I'm on...
@leffeboy Couldn’t hurt to deliberately employ and embrace some disruptors/challengers in government, doubt it would make things any less inspiring!
We tried that already no? Chap by the name of Cummings. Didn't end well iirc. Not that the current lot couldn't use some inspiration/expertise/competence
What's the purpose of banning RT?
@funkrodent maybe we try ones the genuinely want the best for the country and its people, rather than themselves and satisfying their own narcissism?
And yeah, some remotely competent MPs and an opposition that aren't all ****ing space cadets. 🙂
How could Putin bow out?
How did Hitler "bow out"...? There's not very much reading between the lines going on here tonight! 🤷🏻♂️
I didn't literally mean take a step down and leave someone else to carry on the battle... 😂
The Chechens were sent in to be a modern day einsatzgruppen, (Nazi death squad).
I'd argue even more barbaric, and less calculated...
i_scoff_cake
Free Member
I see the EU is banning RT for promoting ‘misinformation’.
As someone who only recently even bothered to look at RT it was a really startling experience. I never expected it to be so utterly propagandist. There really is no need to put quotes around "misinformation", there just isn't.
It doesn't even qualify as a news channel. Ban it, not just for now but until there is a total regime change in Russia. If, after that, it at least has a semblance of balance, then reinstate it.
Re RT, which is why the defence and veteran community rips into the likes of Trevor Coult for going on there spouting his bullshit.
Probably a good way to get yourself on a watch list.
“Russia Today and Sputnik, as well as their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war and to sow division in our union. So we are developing tools to ban their toxic and harmful disinformation in Europe.”
Why don't they go the whole hog and get rid of Fox News, The Daily Mail, The Sun, The Express, etc?
Apologies for the poor quality reporting of the Majorca bulletin, I wonder how many other russian oligarchs employ ukranians
Just watched the Netflix doc that @Binners linked to a couple of pages back about the Maidan protest of 2013-14. Very good context for a lot of what we are now seeing, with the closing credits mentioning Crimea and the Donbas.
I would recommend spending (a difficult) 90 mins watching it for anyone interested in the situation.
If all parties want to prevent further escalation of the war, I am afraid the only way is to split Ukraine into two. i.e. EU Ukraine (West) and Russian Ukraine (East). Then let the citizen move around. The west really needs to let Putin keeps his buffer zone and face. All parties really need to talk. Unfortunately for Ukrainians this will not go down well but at least they will have peace for a while.
If the NATO/EU pushes Putin into a tight corner he will bite back with all his might coz he has all to lose. He will take as many down with him as possible. If Putin is toppled, China CCP and North Korea etc will be next and they don't want that. Therefore, if there is any possibility Putin is not going to be in charged of Russia, I am certain the 2nd front will be opened with Taiwan. At the moment, China CCP is Russia's backup while EU's backup is America.
Sources from the East also indicated that Biden's administration wanted to deescalate the war (no stomach for war) and on numerous occasions contacted China CCP to broker a peace, which China CCP sees as a weak point. The sly Chinese CCP just sits there watching for now knowing that if America/EU is sucked into war with Russia in Ukraine, they will be sitting pretty for easy picking. China is not impartial as they know a United China may not be CCP in charged.
Therefore, the war in Ukraine has the potential to escalate into larger and longer war.
According to far east source Putin has miscalculated and probably entered a costly gamble. He could have sat there looking pretty.
Putin manages to end Swiss and Swedish neutrality and German pacification policy all in one weekend
^^ Putin would just destabilise a Western Ukraine in order to "go in" and "save it".
It wouldn't work.
nickc
Full Member
Putin manages to end Swiss and Swedish neutrality and German pacification policy all in one weekend
Yes, quiet a feat.👍
Expect GBeebies & Fox News will be next if they’re banning Russian-funded ‘misinformation’? 🤣
Trumpster must be bricking-it because all those dirty Roubles propping us his property empire will be worthless. All those Oligarch-owned luxury condos won’t be needing any servicing soon.
ElShalimo
Full MemberThanks for lifting everyone’s spirits chewkw
🤦
Looked like a lot of words with nothing new to offer
If all parties want to prevent further escalation of the war, I am afraid the only way is to split Ukraine into two. i.e. EU Ukraine (West) and Russian Ukraine (East). Then let the citizen move around. The west really needs to let Putin keeps his buffer zone and face. All parties really need to talk. Unfortunately for Ukrainians this will not go down well but at least they will have peace for a while.
Are you for real...? You'd actually suggest openly negotiating with a terrorist to buy a few years of "peace" for very significant cultural, economic and political cost?!?! 🤯
Thanks for lifting everyone’s spirits @chewkw
I was hoping he was trolling... 🤷🏻♂️
Anyone else noticed that the Russian-Ukrainian talks are going to happen in Pripyat?
That Pripyat.
For real...? Source? 🤯
If that's the case... Anyone know what the potential blast radius and fall out of Russia's smallest Nukes would be? Tell me this isn't so... I can see Putin justifying a small Nuke on Pripyat by saying "well nobody's been able to go there for 35yrs now anyway, besides, as a target I made sure of minimal civilian casualties"... 🤦🏻
FML! Seriously...
“beside the Pripyat river” is what I saw, rather than the city itself
Looked like a lot of words with nothing new to offer
To be fair, he has posted in this thread (and others) in a sensible way, since Mark posted his thread about forum behaviour, making his points clearly without getting too carried away. “Don’t forget China/Taiwan in all this”, is an important point, and I welcome him making it in the manner he has in recent days. And, yes, it is a very depressing point.
The (further) division of Ukraine was always what I though was Putin’s goal. With free Ukraine getting smaller and smaller over the next few decades. I’m no longer sure… I think he might go further and take it all, with and eye to taking regions from other countries in his remaining years.
Because partition has worked so well in the past, India, Ireland, Germany, Cyprus etc.
Oh, it’s an awful idea, but could be forced on Ukraine by Putin. He started it years ago. Free Ukraine has been getting smaller for some time. There is no/little chance of it not getting smaller this year, if it survives at all.
Also just watched the Netflix doc on Maidan in 2014. A super insight on the conflicts running up to the current state of fairs. Hard to watch but worthwhile education.
Feeling absolutely helpless but want to help and be with the Ukrainian people fighting to save their country. Truly heartbreaking
I get what you're saying chewkw with regards splitting the country in two, I think many saw that as a possibility leading up to and during the first two days of the war, but as nickc points out, things have changed a bit over the last couple of days, and not necessarily to Russia's (or China's) advantage...
So, who are people donating to?
Red Cross? UNICEF? Someone else?
Pripyat?
That Pripyat.
At least they won't need to import the tea.
If Ukraine does end up partitioned then there’s likely to be a pro-EU, pro-NATO western part (with a capital in Lviv?) sat right on Putin’s border, which is what he says he doesn’t want.
Are you for real…? You’d actually suggest openly negotiating with a terrorist to buy a few years of “peace” for very significant cultural, economic and political cost?!?! 🤯
You have three options.
1. Go all out to repel the aggressor once an for all.
2. Negotiate and buy peace unfortunately. (for a period of time where all sides prepare until the next great war).
3. Continue to fight in Ukraine for a long period where Ukraine will never have peace.
I get what you’re saying chewkw with regards splitting the country in two, I think many saw that as a possibility leading up to and during the first two days of the war, but as nickc points out, things have changed a bit over the last couple of days, and not necessarily to Russia’s (or China’s) advantage…
The problem is Putin miscalculated and now he wants to save face. He thought it would be a walk over but now realising it may not be possible, and if push to corner I am afraid there is a possibility he will do something drastic. NATO/EU can dare him to see if that will happen.
If Ukraine does end up partitioned then there’s likely to be a pro-EU, pro-NATO western part (with a capital in Lviv?) sat right on Putin’s border, which is what he says he doesn’t want.
He knows that he may not get his way but at least you leave him room to save face and he will probably not do anything in future and to retire as hero of Russia.
Splitting to country doesn’t get rid of the “nazis” running Ukraine. Not that he’s beyond just ignoring that line
"Are you for real…? You’d actually suggest openly negotiating with a terrorist to buy a few years of “peace” for very significant cultural, economic and political cost?!?! 🤯"
Crimea?
Dombas?
Luhansk?
Putin has been eating into Ukraine in bite sized chunks its just that this time he's tried to swallow it whole.
You may find what Chewkw is suggesting highly enrertaining (and I usually do) but it's far from the daftest thing said on this thread.
I think I need to check out of this thread for tonight, although no doubt I’ll keep checking the news in another sleepless night.
Let’s hope it all calms down a bit soon. Stay safe people.
You may find what Chewkw is suggesting highly enrertaining (and I usually do) but it’s far from the daftest thing said on this thread.
Well, just before Russia invaded Ukraine the press/news/media was saying how bad it is for Russia to invade etc, then I said wait for few days. Well didn't even last for few days when Russia started sending in their tanks.
Now, the question is do you push Putin into the corner and topple him from outside (NATO/EU)? Bear in mind Putin has gambled but do NATO/EU wish to gamble too?
Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here. All hail the killfile.
NATO/EU is confronting Putin the strongman and Putin is not even hiding the fact he wants to be seen as a strongman.
Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here. All hail the killfile.
Play the ball and not the man. He's outlining options, you don't have to like them.
For a change. Chewie makes some sense. Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure. Most people on here seem to assume that he will be toppled. However, we have absolutely no idea how firm his grip on power really is, and we have no idea how he might react if he was really under threat either internally or externally. It isn’t the most ridiculous idea to think of ways he can back down without losing face. After all, he still has that Big Red Button. He may be bluffing, but the price of misreading his intentions are too catastrophic to contemplate.
A few days ago I picked up a book called The Devil's Alternative by Frederick Forsyth. One of his early ones. Knew nothing about it but had enjoyed Day of the Jackal and Dogs of War back in the day.
Turns out it's set in early 80s and is about US and Soviets facing off, with a healthy dollop of Ukrainian freedom fighters stirring the pot by offing the head of the KGB (amongst other things)!
Apologies for the spoiler, though there's lots more going on.
Reality is sometimes stranger than fiction..
He knows that he may not get his way but at least you leave him room to save face
No, you don't. You just have to isolate Russia internationally, which has already happened, and make it clear to Russians that Putin has to go and that Ukraine's pre-2014 borders have to be respected before sanctions are lifted. Putin isn't really afraid of NATO, he's afraid of his own people. If the Ukraine war is seen as a failure and the Russian economy collapses, they will overthrow him.
Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure. Most people on here seem to assume that he will be toppled. However, we have absolutely no idea how firm his grip on power really is, and we have no idea how he might react if he was really under threat either internally or externally. It isn’t the most ridiculous idea to think of ways he can back down without losing face. After all, he still has that Big Red Button. He may be bluffing, but the price of misreading his intentions are too catastrophic to contemplate
A really valid point. As I understand it a key part of solving the Cuban missile crisis was finding a way to let Krushchev back down without losing (too much) face.
Given the reports of a heavily armed, three mile column of RF troops approaching Kyiv (interesting how virtually nobody is now using Kiev), I suspect he's still hell bent on enforcing his will, by pretty much any means possible..
Unless Putin succeeds in Ukraine, you have to imagine how he is going to accept defeat/partial failure.
Even entering a negotiation with Putin he knows he is defeated (privately) albeit in public he might be seen as hero of Russia. Leave him some room to save face.
No, you don’t. You just have to isolate Russia internationally, which has already happened, and make it clear to Russians that Putin has to go and that Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders have to be respected before sanctions are lifted. Putin isn’t really afraid of NATO, he’s afraid of his own people. If the Ukraine war is seen as a failure and the Russian economy collapses, they will overthrow him.
If Ukraine war is a failure and Russian economy collapses where Putin will lose all, prosecuted etc, what move do you think he will make? To let the world walk all over him or to throw his last dice?
It's a valid point. Putin can't win but can't be seen to lose. How to square that circle is probably occupying a lot of minds at the moment.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
It’s a valid point. Putin can’t win but can’t be seen to lose. How to square that circle is probably occupying a lot of minds at the moment.
Unlike other authoritarian states Putin is seen as the "big brother" amongst them all.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
No need. Just wait for him to retire. Society just have to change/evolve slowly.
"Looks like chewkw’s getting his semi on about strongmen. Nothing new to see here."
Whilst the first part of that sentence may be true, the second isn't. If chewkw's semi pointed him in the direction of an invasion then it happened to be right didn't it. The war didn't start because Chewkw got exited, it started because Putin is a c*** and maybe Chewkw, with his interest in strongmen, recognised this better than some.
So insulting him won't change the fact that he called this one better than you did.
Just because you didn't see something coming doesn't mean there's nothing to see.
Don't buy your energy from that psycopathic murderer that invades other countries... Buy it from er.....oh hang on
Many would say the same about CNN.
I've been watching cycling and read that as GCN.
Just wait for him to retire
I doubt he has retirement in mind.
That could go some way to offsetting our (Europe's, nor necessarily the UK's) dependace on Russian gas.
I have to admire their timing, did they just stumble across them this afternoon?
.
Seems an ideal opportunity to switch away from buying gas from a country which uses the money to wage war in a much smaller neighbour to... ah.
.
[Edit] It would appear gwaelod can type faster than me!
Honestly I'm quite enjoying Chewkw's Asian perspective. He has a brain, and does post good serious stuff sometimes. It makes a change from the STW groupthink.
I doubt he has retirement in mind.
He is 69 year old. I doubt he will live forever.
I didn't agree with his last post but it is another perspective and something to think about.
Who knows how this will play out, that is an option.
TBF all most of us are doing is looking at the news and speculating, and that isn't a ridiculous scenario to speculate about, however much we might dislike it.
Even entering a negotiation with Putin he knows he is defeated (privately) albeit in public he might be seen as hero of Russia. Leave him some room to save face.
You think that given he is a proven genocidal maniac, 150mn Russians that have been systemically hoodwinked would think twice about putting him up against a wall and shooting him once they found out the extent he had kept the wool over their eyes...? Some people have short memories! Putin doesn't believe in democracy, he acts far more like a Tsar ruling by divine right than any "chosen" leader (democratically or otherwise) that I have known. The Russian Revolution was just 105 short years ago, and the Royal family weren't given a paticularly fair or exhaustive trial! 🤷🏻♂️
This is ignoring the fact that he is now the worlds most wanted man, amongst a population of nearly 8 Billion people...
You think his emotions come into this?!?! 😂
Forget the 8 Bn world population, or 150mn Russians though... There's a few dozen Oligarchs that effectively barely have a pot to piss in right now as a result of EU sanctions... Individually, not one of these men would risk upsetting Putin... As a group...? You better believe that it doesn't matter how "all powerful" he is, they'll get medieval on his ass just out of principle! Money talks... Imagine being worth many Billions of dollars for several decades, then one day you're worth nothing. But you have the opportunity to remove the person that has caused this problem, will be hailed as an international hero for doing so, and blind eyes will be turned as to your financial interests for certain given what you can achieve just by taking this one person out...
Putin has had a 20 odd year stranglehold on the Russian elites, but nobody is impervious to the menace of other peoples greed.
No need. Just wait for him to retire. Society just have to change/evolve slowly.
People who start world wars don't get afforded the dignity of retirement! 🤭
Besides... If the rumours coming in are true that he is about to use Thermobaric weapons on Kyiv, NATO will be involved by the end of the first week of battle. In 4 days this has gone from "we sympathise with Ukraine, but this is their war" to full blown military support from the EU/NATO/UN in all but manpower. The way Putin is carrying on right now, this will be all over one way or the other within days... Even just the promise of turning Swift back on and reinstating the oligarchs financial interests could result in the easiest "wanted: dead or alive" man hunt in political history!
Don't think of Kruschev being allowed to retire ignominiously... Think of Ceacescu or Tsar Nicholas 2 being handed over to mobs baying for instant blood, or Hitler taking his own life in his hands rather than allowing himself to fall to the same fate.
How would the Russian people overthrow Putin?
His leadership requires the support of the security services, military, bureaucracies, etc. They support him because sticking with the regime is the better path for them. When his regime no longer offers the better path, support crumbles and people start looking around to see how many other people feel the same way. The military leaders aren't stupid, they know that any use of nuclear weapons would bring utter catastrophe upon Russia. Putting the nuclear forces on alert is a sign of utter desperation, not a sign of strength.
I know some find Chewkw's scenario absurd but it did remind me of Korea, so in that sense he's proposing a scenario that does have some historical precedence, its not an idea plucked out of thin air.
I know some find Chewkw’s scenario absurd but it did remind me of Korea
North Korea had the support of the Soviet Union and China. Russia has alienated everyone, even China is abandoning them. Russia sees itself as a global superpower, the only way to be taken seriously again will be to get rid of Putin. As long as he's still there, Russia will be a pariah.
Ruble down 20% in pre-market training. Wonder what rock bottom will look like?
Another one here who's finding it hard to sleep so reading here when it's not particularly healthy.
What's scarier is I read Chewkw's post and before I clocked who wrote it I was generally agreeing with it, fits in with my domino fear. His thoughts do have some base on reality here, that thought in itself is scary enough! (no offence...)
As for how Putin can be removed from power? I fear he has things so well tied up, he has had decades to do so after all, that anything short of an assassination attempt is an outside chance at best. I agree the nuclear forces on alert thing is an act of desperation rather than a key play but now he's played that card the reality is that he's fully capable of going down that route and there's no obvious way to stop him. Hopefully within the Russian machine there are plans afoot to remove him somehow but that is a very risky option to rely on for us. The world's genuinely looking down the barrel of the gun, the question is who has control of the trigger.
The Russian Revolution was just 105 short years ago
Good point. If you're old now, your grandparents could have been there.
Another one here who’s finding it hard to sleep so reading here when it’s not particularly healthy.
I've had a late coffee and I'm staying up because I have work to do for a deadline tomorrow. I haven't started yet.
The world’s genuinely looking down the barrel of the gun, the question is who has control of the trigger.
A better way to look at the whole nuke scenario is that Putin is holding a gun to himself, his generals and supporting oligarchs, their families and their dog. Oh, let's not forget, the whole Russian population too... and the world.
It's an empty threat.
https://twitter.com/UHmallorca/status/1498040498359095296?t=A5tUSUESlfWNkKOZMBkUWw&s=19
Ukrainian sailor arrested for partially sinking his Russian boss's luxury yacht in Port Adriano
The owner of the boat is a tycoon responsible for manufacturing weapons for Putin's troops.