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Snihurivka is at the centre of the road & rail hub north of Kherson
The Russian collapse seems inevitable there now
Also gives Ukraine ability to support their own advances
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1577675590290784256?s=19
Chewkw: Does not matter who use it first so long as a “wall of radiation” is created that will be good enough.
Unfortunately that is not how radiation and fall out of isotopes works but then again that’s par for the course for your stream of consciousness masquerading as fact, very little science is known about detonation of small scale nuclear arms as to what the consequences would be, find the wind changing a few degrees and you render 1000’s of square kilometres uninhabitable, then you have the concerns over contamination of ground water and soil or underground running water, what about if it rains or if the weather patterns change and atmospheric pressure changes?, this could carry the isotopes into the jet stream and deposit them thousands of kilometres away, what about the animals carrying radiation?.
Go away and educate yourself before regurgitation of talking point sound bites
It is a risk that putin has access to nuclear weapons, but he will not use them as that will render the entire Russian state and the oligarchs as impotent, they will not allow that to happen.
I've never encountered anyone who activity wanted nuclear war as prose's for peace. Bonkers
You still don’t understand do you, If you can contain a radioactive wall containing isotopes in one specific area then I imagine the Nobel prize is yours
Come on folks, there’s three (at least) of you dragging this extremely informative and really quite valuable thread into bickering and arguma-lympian territory that STW seemed to have managed to steer away from in recent times (for the better).
Please stop.
I’ve never encountered anyone who activity wanted nuclear war as prose’s for peace. Bonkers
Why do you think all the nuclear armed nations want nuke? For posturing?
You still don’t understand do you, If you can contain a radioactive wall containing isotopes in one specific area then I imagine the Nobel prize is yours
If it happens then probably a huge part of Ukraine and probably part of Russia will be uninhabitable, which is exactly the idea.
Come on folks, there’s three (at least) of you dragging this extremely informative and really quite valuable thread into bickering and arguma-lympian territory that STW seemed to have managed to steer away from in recent times (for the better).Please stop.
+1
Been a member of this forum for a few years now and still hadn't cottoned on to how many f***in nutters there are here..........oh well...
Well I'm a grumpy old fart but I'm all in favour of a new iron curtain, with the route determined this time by Western Europe.
Why do you think all the nuclear armed nations want nuke? For posturing?
Well, er, yes. That IS precisely the point.
Been a member of this forum for a few years now and still hadn’t cottoned on to how many f***in nutters there are here……….oh well…
Yep. I can still be surprised at how fast a thread can be derailed. I often have to fight myself getting sucked into their shite-vortexes
Anyhoo all this talk of nuclear deterrents sent me down a YouTube rabbit hole of Yes, minister and Yes, prime minister clips
I listened to the podcast sideways on BBC sounds. They had a nuclear war mini series which I found quite good.
Well, er, yes. That IS precisely the point.
So far so good for posturing but at some point in time one/some of them will just have to use it to test their power, which is inevitable. The question is who will be the first to use it.
So far so good for posturing but at some point in time one/some of them will just have to use it to test their power, which is inevitable.
They would need enormous confidence. Or a death wish.
They would need enormous confidence. Or a death wish.
Both will be my guess.
Everyone knows NATO/West/USA is armed to their teeth but how they will challenge that will have to be seen.
matt_outandabout
Full MemberWhat tyres for a mobile ICBM launcher?
Rocket Rons obviously.
Ok who woke up daz and chewy? Comedy gold those two
I stopped posting on this thread months ago due to the general hostility towards anyone who wanted a less violent resolution to this conflict. I see that hasn’t changed. I’ll leave you guys to your live football match style commentary. Enjoy.
It is difficult to see how you do not see the contradictions in your position. How are we to compromise with a bad faith actor?
If the world is to be held to ransom today, is it better that we put it off until tomorrow?
It is unfortunate that it must be now, but the timing was not of our choosing. If it is a bluff, it must be called now.
It's interesting (to me at least 🙂 ) that during a video meeting with teachers President Putin started to quiz them about their thoughts on the Pugachev Rebellion.
Catherine the Great eventually beat the rebels and Pugachev was executed. President Putin summarised the reason for the rebellion as, "...an element of the weakness of central authority in the country"
I can't work out if it's justification for the state that he's created or a shot across the bows; I think the latter.
A big question over the use of nuclear weapons is, why hasn't Russia used them already? They have suffered several routs, but have not gone nuclear. This means that Russia has self-imposed constraints on their use. So, the issue is, what would Ukraine have to do to make Russia feel that it's better to use nukes than to not use them?
1. Putin's major concern is regime survival. Losing in Ukraine is bad for him, but as long as his regime survives, he will probably not use nukes (because using nukes will have unpredictable consequences that may threaten the survival of his regime.)
2. An invasion of Russian territory. Nobody thinks this would serve any purpose, neither NATO nor Ukraine have any plans to do this. However, Putin has attempted to unilaterally redraw the borders of Russia, so it's not clear where he thinks the red line is. Since his declaration of annexation, Ukraine has recaptured large areas of land that Putin declared to be part of Russia. This indicates that recapturing Ukrainian territory isn't a red line. The way things are going, it won't be too long before Crimea is isolated and Russia will be facing a decision whether to withdraw its troops there or to risk losing them too.
So, the doom-mongering over possible nuclear use is a bit exaggerated. It's not impossible that it will happen, but Putin will only use them if he believes it is essential to his regime's survival, not just to avoid losing on the battlefield.
The war in Ukraine is creating an important battle over energy supplies for the west.
Stored gas supplies should get Europe through this winter, but the bigger problem will be refilling that storage for next winter.
Gazprom is continuing to supply Europe, e.g. Italy via Austria and other routes, so all is not lost with the Nord Stream pipelines.
NATO has made a very simple statement, "We, as Allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors. Any deliberate attack against Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response" https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_207733.htm
The EU is trying to convince Europe to buy as a block to reduce bidding wars and price increases, as well as adopting a price cap strategy. Some states favour the cap to slow inflation and others reject it because it would make supply more difficult to source.
Vladislav Inozemtsev thinks that Russia timed its energy campaign badly and has already lost, due in part to over-estimating its energy position much as it over-estimated its ability to invade Ukraine https://ridl.io/putin-s-tactical-mistake/
A big question over the use of nuclear weapons is, why hasn’t Russia used them already? They have suffered several routs, but have not gone nuclear. This means that Russia has self-imposed constraints on their use. So, the issue is, what would Ukraine have to do to make Russia feel that it’s better to use nukes than to not use them?
I think that the influence is more with China than ever it is with the Ukraine.
This is from the state-backed Global Times on 2nd October, which I think is clear advice from China to Russia,
"...all European countries will tremble under the shadow of a possible nuclear war. In that case, there will be no security for anyone, not for Ukraine, and not for the world."
"Whether the conflict will spiral out of control is everyone’s concern."
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1276526.shtml
The timing is important because on 3rd October, after Ramzan Kadyrov's comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he preferred a “balanced” approach to the issue of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine rather than emotions.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-prefers-balance-after-putin-ally-suggests-using-nuclear-bomb-ukraine-2022-10-03/
Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts
The recent increase in oil prices is also a concern and is caused largely by OPEC+ (of which Russia is a member) reducing oil production by the largest amount since 2020 when C19 hit.
During C19 the price fell to below $25 per barrel; it rose to over $100 in the weeks leading up to the invasion of Ukraine, ironically rewarding Russia with increasing oil revenues, as buyers scrambled to get stocks. The price has since fallen to $90
The decision taken by OPEC+ to put the brakes on the price drop is IMHO a business decision because at the end of the year EU oil imports from Russia will almost completely stop (a handful of countries have exemptions) and Russia will sell to the highest bidder, undercutting OPEC+ pricing.
There's also the possibility that cynical non-OPEC 3rd parties will buy cheap Russian oil and sell it to equally cynical countries bound by western sanctions
Nice to see a couple of informative and thoughtful posts
Yep, some well though out posts instead of whattaboutery/insinuations or just flat out trolling is appreciated.
Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history.
https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war
Snyder has a record of criticism of both Putin and Trump. Even if he does allow some form of bias in, he still knows far more on this than anyone here.
War is ultimately about politics. That Ukraine is winning on the battlefield matters because Ukraine is exerting pressure on Russian politics. Tyrants such as Putin exert a certain fascination, because they give the impression that they can do what they like. This is not true, of course; and their regimes are deceptively brittle. The war ends when Ukrainian military victories alter Russian political realities, a process which I believe has begun.
Right now, though, we have a certain difficulty seeing how Ukraine gets to victory, even as the Ukrainians advance. This is because many of our imaginations are trapped by a single and rather unlikely variant of how the war ends: with a nuclear detonation. I think we are drawn to this scenario, in part, because we seem to lack other variants, and it feels like an ending.Using the mushroom cloud for narrative closure, though, generates anxiety and hinders clear thinking. Focusing on that scenario rather than on the more probable ones prevents us from seeing what is actually happening, and from preparing for the more likely possible futures. Indeed, we should never lose sight of how much a Ukrainian victory will improve the world we live in.
That /\/\ last sentence, whether you agree with anything else in the quote or not, stands out for me.
As I'll explain in a moment, giving in to nuclear blackmail won't end the conventional war in Ukraine. It would, however, make future nuclear war much more likely. Making concessions to a nuclear blackmailer teachers him that this sort of threat will get him what he wants, which guarantees further crisis scenarios down the line. It teaches other dictators, future potential blackmailers, that all they need is a nuclear weapon and some bluster to get what they want, which means more nuclear confrontations. It tends to convince everyone that the only way to defend themselves is to build nuclear weapons, which means global nuclear proliferation.
Rocket Rons obviously.
Some of us are addressing the important issues! 🙂
Rocket Rons obviously.
I'm disappointed that Fire XC's are not suggested...
More importantly, which is louder?
> A Tactical Nuclear Weapon
Or
> A home brew tubeless tyre popping off the rim and spraying sealant all over the workshop
And which one makes you more anxious?
Substack blog by US Historian Timothy Snyder who specialises in Central and Eastern European modern history
Excellent stuff, thanks for posting!
There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk.
Needs some verification that one to be believable
There’s a rumour doing the rounds that one of Prigozhin’s (Wagner Group Oligarch) media bloggers has just been arrested in Moscow. Aleksey Slobodenyuk
Interesting, Prigozhin & Khadyrov have been openly criticizing the failures of the special military operation 🙄 & demanding escalation
Maybe Putin is sending a signal not to overstep the mark
Edit
ISW update confirms that bloggers have been arrested and that Khadyrov has been promoted! And that Putin lining up Shoigu to take the fall
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-5
^^^ there is a video purportedly showing this arrest.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577780691626037248
Seems to be some of power struggle going on with Prigozhin and Shoigu, according to reports.
That Yale Professor I linked to has a lecture on YT from 2014 looking at Ukraine, its 1hr, Ive not watched it but hopefully will.
Just sharing in case its of interest to anyone.
Ukraine: From Propaganda to Reality
Since February, the world’s eyes have been on Ukraine as Ukrainians rebelled against rising authoritarianism in their own country and were met in return with a Russian invasion of Ukraine's southern and eastern provinces. Yale University’s Timothy Snyder is the world’s leading historian of Eastern Europe. His series of articles in the New York Review of Books has been hailed as the definitive analysis of this crisis. Join him as he clarifies the stakes.
Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.
Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it's history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.👍
Speaking of videos I've recently watched this one- very clear minded and informative, well worth a watch:
I came here to post that Snyder article too! I think thols2 has already alluded to the prospect of Russian warlords with private armies vying for power (IE Prigozhin and Kadyrov) - a daunting thought. But plausible.
Ukraine: From Propaganda to Reality
Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.
Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it’s history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.👍
Seconded.
Brings a hell of a lot of stuff together, but still easy to follow.
Great summary.
Everyone should listen to it.
Now I'm only really following the conflict from the posts on here, but the ISW link above had this map which is the first I've seen showing a Ukrainian Partisan Warfare area around Melitopol.
Just watched that video you posted of the Yale Professor and it was utterly engrossing.Anyone with an hour free and an interest in Ukraine and how it’s history and current fight back effects us all should definitely watch it.
Agreed, an hour well spent now ive listened to it
So, you posted it before listening to it yourself... 🤣 ...got lucky! An hour of it on in the background was well spent... better than anything on the radio this morning I'm sure. Thanks.
Absolute chancer me 😉
In what little defence i can muster i did say
Ive not watched it but hopefully will.
Luckily I didn't take enough care reading your post, and just clicked play. 😉
Strongly suggest everyone else listens to it.
According to the Bild the gold teeth in a box thing is false Ukrainian propaganda
Could very well be Ukrainian propaganda or misrepresentation, but then I also don't trust die Bild at all. It's an awful shitrag tabloid
Video bookmarked for later thanks.
Snyder’s book bloodlands is also excellent if anyone wants a more in depth read of the history. Hard going at times, but covers everything to the east of Germany from 1939 to the 1950s and gives context to the comments above about Poles etc having a deep rooted dislike of Russia.
Edited to add that this thread has been really good for drawing together sources like the blog and video above. Thanks to those who have contributed.
Could very well be Ukrainian propaganda or misrepresentation, but then I also don’t trust die Bild at all. It’s an awful shitrag tabloid
Literally just read that elsewhere, is it an equivalent of the Express?
Snyder’s book bloodlands is also excellent if anyone wants a more in depth read of the history.
He mentions that in passing in the video. It's on my list of books to read now.
Literally just read that elsewhere, is it an equivalent of the Express?
Express x The Sun x Daily Fail - It's sensationalist and has been caught out telling fibs in the past.
Claims non-partisanship but plays favourites
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/16/bild-zeitung-tabloid-julian-reichelt-angela-merkel-germany
EDIT: From the wiki page
Punk rock band Die Ärzte summarized Bild's content as "fear, hate, tits and the weather report" (Aus Angst, Hass, Titten und dem Wetterbericht)
The Yale Professor video was very interesting although I thought he was talking about British politics from 2010 from about 48 mins onwards.
Some interesting articles on yahoo relating to some of the convo up there -
A Kremlin-installed leader has suggested Sergei Shoigu, Russia's defence minister and one of Vladimir Putin's closest allies, should shoot himself because of failures in the Ukraine conflict.
Kirill Stremouso, deputy head of the annexed Kherson region, poured scorn on Moscow's generals in a highly rare public rebuke of its top brass.
In a four-minute video message, he said: "Indeed, many say: if they were a defence minister who had allowed such a state of affairs, they could, as officers, have shot themselves.
Also, US saying they believe ukraine authorised that car bomb
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ukrainians-behind-car-bombing-killed-050000328.html
No idea as to validity of yahoo as a news source
he was talking about British politics from 2010 from about 48 mins onwards
Politics across the whole of Europe, and the USA.
That Yale Professor I linked to has a lecture on YT from 2014 looking at Ukraine, its 1hr, Ive not watched it but hopefully will.
Just sharing in case its of interest to anyone.
Watching it now, thanks for posting
No idea as to validity of yahoo as a news source
Regarding the car bombing. Yahoo are just recycling it.
Its being reported via quite a few outlets
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That Yale professor was a good watch.
His concept of "applied post modernism" rather sums up the world of Brexit and Trump that we have been living in during the 8 years since that talk was given.
I’ve started on his “The making of modern Ukraine” lecture series, there’s 9 so far and I’m onto #2,
Watched that lecture, @piemonster, very interesting, thanks for finding and posting it.
If the UAF can clear Kherson, Donetsk and Lushachank in the next week to 10 days then its pretty much game over.
Hold positions to solidify gains, root out RU remainers and then re arm, re group and re sup.
Then it's a dash for the border or coastline. In my mind its 50 odd miles at the nearest point. Sever all potential road links to stop the rusks getting food, ammo etc.
Hopefully then whatever is left of the Russian army will capitulate to save themselves. Local commanders will agree terms and the hardware gets assimulted into the uaf arsenal.
Cant see it not happening, just might have to wait till spring, or if its a hard winter then the weather will play a part. Frozen soldiers cant fire back.
I worry for the mental health of the troops. Imagine being a Baker, lorry driver, teacher etc then suddenly you are seeing people dead or dieing on a daily basis, or bits of people blown apart by mines of shelling. Doesn't matter which side they were on. Still harrowing to see, a stump of a leg in a boot, or just an arm with the torso nowhere to be seen.
Be with them forever
@piemonster - Can you share where you got the Bias Distribution chart from? That's something I would be keen to read a bit more about
Isn't that from ground news?
That is indeed from Ground News. It seems pretty good for what it cost, but I could easily be missing some major flaws.
I worry for the mental health of the troops. Imagine being a Baker, lorry driver, teacher etc then suddenly you are seeing people dead or dieing on a daily basis, or bits of people blown apart by mines of shelling
I worry about this too. I work in healthcare in an area of London that has a Cypriot community, and I have patients with PTSD from the war there. That was 1974, nearly 50 years ago! Unfortunately the mental health legacy of this kind of conflict is horrible and very, very long lasting
Got to hand it to the Ukrainian social media bods. Apparently Kher means 'male chicken' or 'fornicate you'. And the best watermelons in the world are apparently grown in Kherson. So the picture is saying to the Russians 'F you soon in Kherson'
I worry for the mental health of the troops. Imagine being a Baker, lorry driver, teacher etc then suddenly you are seeing people dead or dieing on a daily basis, or bits of people blown apart by mines of shelling
It doesn't really matter what your previous occupation was, PTSD is a probability and wars (call them what you will) are terrible.
We've moved on from the early days of WW1 when soldiers were shot for cowardice. By 1917 men were given a few days rest, but not diagnosed with "shell shock" because the term was banned. In 2006 men convicted of the various associated crimes during WW1, including cowardice and desertion, were pardoned.
As recently as this century we've continued to learn about the effects of explosions that don't cause an obvious injury to the brain, but do cause neurologic trauma at a molecular level
A bit of an add-on to the post about the OPEC+ oil supply cuts ^^
Sanctions, that don't work according to some, had already forced Russian oil production to below the level required by OPEC+ to achieve the greatest reduction since 2020 and C19. The upside for Russia is that they will benefit from a price increase for no loss of output, but the European ban will still impact later this year so the rest of that post stands
The blame game in Russia is publicly underway with Sergei Shoigu firmly in their sights. Shoigu has been President Putin's ally and Minister of Defence for a decade, often holidaying together, so IMHO this is pretty close to treason.
Kirill Stremousov, Russian deputy leader of Kherson region said yesterday, "Many people say that the Minister of Defense, who allowed this state of affairs to happen, could, as an officer, shoot himself, but, you know, the word 'officer' is an incomprehensible word for many."
He added, that Russia's defense ministry consists of "ministers, mediocre and corrupt generals and marauders."
https://www.newsweek.com/kherson-counteroffensive-sergei-shoigu-kirill-stremousov-1749452
We’ve moved on from the early days of WW1 when soldiers were shot for cowardice.
I'm not sure they have, there was an article posted about a Wagner Group unit torturing deserters in Syria, with a bit of light digging I found the original published article that, following the guys hands and feet being smashed to bits with hammers had a jubilant photo of the unit holding his severed head aloft.
Frankly a bullet to the head would have been a kindness in comparison.
Pretty sure when the articles were reporting Wagner group recruiting from prisons, they were openly saying deserters would be killed.
Biden slips again, off camera comments to the point we are destined to Nuclear Armagaeddon very soon not understanding the paranoia and stirring of many a dictator with itchy trigger fingers and the mental health of billions.
It’ll be seen a sabre rattling to Putin with Biden purporting to lay waste to the world if Putin uses a tactical nuke -it’ll just push Putin to try it. Makes you think; stupid comment or global nuclear power with a equal measure of willingness to kill en-masse, I’m quickly going off the US.
Imagine what trump would have been saying.
Imagine what trump would have been saying.
Oh god that would have been horrific
On that...
Politico article
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/biden-cuban-missile-crisis-russia-nuclear-00060877
And Tass
https://tass.com/world/1519061
Also, and with some timing
"I am once again turning to the international community as I did before 24 February. Preventative strikes, so that they know what will await them if they use [a nuclear weapon]," Zelensky said in the video
For a bit of a calmer viewpoint
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1578290662885429248?t=hfPDQQqz6B-v5OTug-lwrg&s=19
Always interesting reading Tass, especially when you consider that its for western consumption.
That article looks actually quite reasonable/sober right up to the bit about Zaphorizia nuclear power plant and moves to a subtext of "but if it wasn't for those horrible Ukranians everything would be alright and its the West that is threatening us with Nuclear armageddon not us because we're nice and just telling it like it is and because they can't keep their nose out of our private business because that's what they do and, and , and, and nobody likes us, ooh its just sooooo unfair..."
I might have overstretched that a bit but you get the general idea.
Those sneaky Ukrainians and the 180 degree turning shells.
(I actually have no idea what sort of adjustments stuff like Excalibur can do? But I dont think they can turn 180)
To be honest, I'm not seeing Biden's actual comments being an issue - seems to have just stated the obvious.
Imagine what trump would have been saying.
He is Putin's mate so on a much broader scale it would have been interesting to know what the USA's response would have been to the invasion.
I’m quickly going off the US.
The US is thoroughly rotten and has been for most of its existence. Have you only just realised this?
He is Putin’s mate so on a much broader scale it would have been interesting to know what the USA’s response would have been to the invasion
I've wondered that to, I think he would have limited US involvement early on much more, both sanctions and lethal aid and without the US's support I wonder what the rest of NATO/West would have done. Yet another reason it's a good job he wasn't re-elected...
I’m quickly going off the US.
The US is thoroughly rotten and has been for most of its existence. Have you only just realised this?
The U.S. was pioneering in having a written constitution that stated very high ideals. No real country will ever be able to fully live up to such lofty principles, the real world is just too complex, but the U.S. has often failed far beyond that. The problem isn't with the ideals, but that the U.S. is both hypocritical and also the most powerful nation on earth. Other countries behave much worse but aren't global superpowers, so the U.S. is criticized when others are ignored. This irritates Americans and makes things even worse.
However, the U.S. does have a reasonably open system with journalists who are willing to expose wrongdoing. Vietnam was an utter catastrophe and American journalists documented that. The invasion of Iraq was another huge catastrophe, and that was also documented by American journalists. Part of the problem for Russia is that journalists have been intimidated and murdered and there is no honest reporting of Putin's crimes. If Putin hadn't silenced all his critics, they could have warned him that he was making a terrible mistake.
However, despite their frequent foreign policy disaster, the U.S. also does a lot of good work, so that should be reported honestly along with reporting on the disasters. In the case of Ukraine, the U.S. has done an exemplary job, and that should be commended. Hopefully, Iraq and Afghanistan have taught the U.S. the lesson that it should have learned from Vietnam and it won't be stupid enough to try establishing liberal democracy at gunpoint. Hopefully too, Ukraine has taught the U.S. that supporting democracies fighting against fascists is good policy.
