The troops who can smell home must surely be doing all they can to keep out of harm's way.
On a side note, if Ukraine retake all the breakaway territories are they going to end up with a Northern Ireland scenario?
Better to let them go in the long run?
"breakaway"?
It could be argued that Russia created a 'Northern Ireland scenario' when it invaded those areas in 2014.
That said, it could further be argued that Ukraine created a 'Northern Ireland scenario' when it seceded in 1991.
And I don't know which would be closer to the truth!
Those mobilised RA reservists are being deployed directly into BTGs in Ukraine to replace other front line troops - they won’t receive much/any individual or collective training, just expected to pick up a uniform and weapon and get on with it just as winter starts to roll in, they’ll be sitting in unheated steel boxes, probably stuck in mud waiting to be picked off. I’d question whether the militias in the Donbas are seriously “dug in” or maybe that’s they’ve told the generals, they’ve simply pocketed the cash to build hardened positions and given the troops a few shovels like the rest of the RA.
https://twitter.com/maryilyushina/status/1572981536391327744?s=20&t=wyk-Se9yz-EvISdeYubN_Q
2-3 weeks training? They're not long for this world.
My lad is 16 tomorrow, this video makes me sad.
Yeah, it's awful stuff, but the only thing that will stop this madness is its reality of pointless, brutal deaths of young men being brought home to wider Russian society.
if Ukraine retake all the breakaway territories are they going to end up with a Northern Ireland scenario?
Both Donbas and Luhansk regions contain a large % of Russian speakers, but voted overwhelmingly in favour of UKR independence in an actual referendum a number of years ago, not a sham one as proposed by the Russians. Crimea - much closer, but still in favour (54% I think), as its naval facilities have meant a lot more native Russians settling there.
WRT Nuclear weapons, if Putin used them he’d have no intention of tactical use, it would be against a city - terrorism as per usual. He knows no other way.
If the Ukrainians want to win over the Russian people/conscripts then offer them safe passage away from the front line and let them call home to tell their loved ones they are safe and being looked after.
Overly simplistic I know but better than slaughtering thousands of folk and more likely to help turn the tide in Russia
The Ukrainians are offering anyone who surrenders good treatment, Geneva convention protection and the choice to return to Russia or not. I suspect Putin's regime will not be kind to those that surrender.
More brilliant media ops, humour and trolling from Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888?s=20&t=9LqdD5VQRnjm0k-DM3QKIQ
They are definitely winning the meme war!
^^ They have proven genius with their online media war haven't they?👍
Utterly brilliant 🙂
WRT Nuclear weapons, if Putin used them he’d have no intention of tactical use, it would be against a city – terrorism as per usual. He knows no other way.
A lot of things have surprised me do far in this war but I'd be very surprised if Russia used nuclear weapons. I would not be surprised at all if they use chemical/biological weapons when things get desperate.
^^ Good article that.
Many of the men have no military past at all, ethnic minorities being targeted the most and a real lack of ambition to get into the fight.
Putin really is desperate. Interesting times.
Both Donbas and Luhansk regions contain a large % of Russian speakers, but voted overwhelmingly in favour of UKR independence in an actual referendum a number of years ago
The elections in 2019 demonstrated little support for pro Russian or far right candidates. What little pro Russian support there was was actually in the far West not the East.
Is anyone else concerned that Putin might herd all these mobilised "troops" together somewhere in the occupied Donbas, then whack them with a false-flagged battlefield nuke, trying to pin it on Ukraine?
You might, retort "He's not that crazy!", but I fear he probably is.
The Ukrainians must be shitting themselves knowing that 300,000 fresh Russians are headed their way.
https://twitter.com/TolomeoNews/status/1572834289187700736
From that Gaurdian article
“You’re fighting for your children’s future,” shouted the woman, who was not identified, in front of a crowd outside a municipal building.“We don’t have a present, what kind of future are you talking about?” a man in the crowd responded.
Is the kind of sentiment that leads to a very bad place for the RF.
The Ukrainians must be shitting themselves knowing that 300,000 fresh Russians are headed their way.
Scared, undisciplined, badly led troops, in all likelihood with access to alcohol = war crimes.
*more warcrimes
China has made it clear that a lengthy war in Ukraine is not their preference, while standing with Russia they are also treading the international tightrope
The difficulty will be in how Russia interprets this; walk away (not likely), or pile more resources into a conventional war that will be damaging both politically and militarily
The likely accession of the right-wing coalition to power in Italy next week includes Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi who are both admirers of President Putin. Salvini is openly critical of sanctions and Berlusconi expressed thoughts in May of a deal with Russia, “Europe should… try to persuade Ukraine to accept Putin’s demands” https://bilyonaryo.com/2022/05/29/berlusconis-bad-break-up-with-putin-reveals-italy-russia-ties/money/
I know they are different conflicts but it's ironic that Russia broke the German army at Stalingrad during the winter and it looks like hubris and winter will break the Russian army in Ukraine.
they don’t have much chance of evicting the Russian army
Given the rock bottom morale of the Russian troops already 5-6 months into a war they're clearly not winning, and soon having thousands of untrained, unsupported new recruits swelling the ranks in an army that cannot supply the troops already there. I think if winter is harsh, they might just "evict" themselves.
Is anyone else concerned that Putin might herd all these mobilised “troops” together somewhere in the occupied Donbas, then whack them with a false-flagged battlefield nuke, trying to pin it on Ukraine?
Ukraine doesn't have nukes, they signed them away after Russia, the UK and others signed a treaty agreeing Ukraines sovereignty and independence.
Then Russia took Crimea and we all went "what treaty?"
I think a lot hinges on this winter for many reasons
A cold winter will send gas prices rocketing and even tho many countries have stored up gas (not UK !) will still lead to hardship
Will also be punishing for Ukrainian civilians with damaged infrastructure targeted by Russia
But it would also be deadly for Russian conscripts, I'll equipped and under supplied with their logistics routes constantly being damaged by Ukrainian attacks
even tho many countries have stored up gas (not UK !)
Remember that only about 3% of our gas came from russia, about 50% is from the north sea (from our own supply), a further 33% comes form Norway, the rest is from other sources such as importing LNG from Qatar..
The situation is different from countries like Germany that lack a large scale domestic energy resource (bar Coal), have leant heaviliy on importing gas from Russia and have lower access to renewables.
Bit of an oversimplifiction here but remember that the cost and actual supply are different, We are getting hit by the rising costs of energy as gas is priced via the global market which is getting hit from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia.
As it stands it looks like the Russian economy is now in freefall, China, India and Turkey are stepping back from them both politically and, most likely soon economically. I dont think Syria, North Korea or Bellarus have a spare few trillion Rubles stuffed down the back of the sofa to help matters. The RU millitary is in pieces, and the plan now is to send tens of thousands of poorly led, untrained and under-equipped conscripts into a war zone and hope for the best.
My gut feeling is that the large scale conscription and partial mobilisation has been done by Putin not to win the war in Ukraine but instead as an attempt to prevent a large scale uprising/revolution/coup in Russia.
TBH, I think that has been the reason all along for this whole sorry escapade.
I had a good chat with a friend in Moscow this morning.
Six months ago he was ashamed about what was happening. He is a progressive guy who has worked for western companies all of his life.
Now he claims he reads Telegram for independent news everyday but he is no longer critical of his government. The main things I picked up from him.
Cars are the main issue in daily life as they cannot get new ones and repairs are hard
Lots of work for engineers working on military aims
Not feeling the effects of the war in Moscow and no one in his circle affected by the mobilisation. He heard they were getting four weeks training and they will not go near the front lines.
The escalation is being pushed by the West
The USA is wanting this war (he does use that word at least) to last as long as possible
Russia has not stopped gas supplies it is Europe who do not want it. Russians get gas cheaper than they used to and European governments are making big profits by doubling the price for their people
Russia has liberated these areas of Ukraine
I countered much of the above but it wasn't sinking in. Still some way to go before reality hits home I think.
My gut feeling is that the large scale conscription and partial mobilisation has been done by Putin not to win the war in Ukraine but instead as an attempt to prevent a large scale uprising/revolution/coup in Russia.
TBH, I think that has been the reason all along for this whole sorry escapade.
May well be some truth in this. Certainly the latter part. It's straight out of the kleptocratic dictator playbook, when you've stolen and corrupted everything you need new markets to violate. Plus you have some edgy Asian rebublics, no harm in reminding them what you're capable of.
Of course nobody thought it'd go this badly. Best get all the potential troublemakers off the streets and somewhere you can indoctrinate and keep tabs on them. And chuck the worst of them into the front line because why not?
In the meantime continue to threat and bluster and pray - really pray 🙏 - that the West loses its resolve before your position becomes untenable..
I've found India's and China's stance pretty deplorable from the outset. The EU and the US need to wean themselves away from reliance on these states.
The EU and the US need to wean themselves away from reliance on these states.
Tricky. We don't have enough people to fill the jobs we do now without on-shoring the all the medium tech and consumer electronics manufacturing.
True but I'm sure there are potential skills in Europe similar to Skoda's (VW) in the Czech Republic and SEAT's in Spain.
the trouble with the western economy is it relies on people on extremely low wages to make stuff for us for low prices. Those people live in countries that will do the right thing by these people on extremely low wages, for example by buying fuel as cheaply as possible and trading with countries who may be doing unspeakable things in order to support their internal economy and keep their low-waged populations working. They don't have the luxury of a choice to bump up energy prices by 100%
We could reduce reliance on these countries, but our standards of living would drop significantly - we'd probably see clothes prices rise by 5x (approx guess, given US-made jeans are £50 a pop and far-east made jeans are a tenner). I don't think there is support for that kind of change.
A skilled IT worker in India with a few years experience has a wrapped-up cost (wage, building, taxes, etc) of around a quarter of the equivilent worker in the US
Was watching some videos of more old Russian tanks getting wheeled out and it got me thinking. Do old tanks and newer tanks for that matter all uses the same shells or is it like bike standards and has changed over the years? I was thinking if they are not the same the it must be a logistical nightmare supplying different sizes etc to the right areas of the battlefield. And if they are having to wheel out old shells for the old tanks how many do they have and are they still viable?
Do old tanks and newer tanks for that matter all uses the same shells or is it like bike standards and has changed over the years?
You mean artillery shells? As I understand it, militaries try to standardize, NATO has standardized ammo, for example. It'll still be like bike standards though, there will be numerous variations on somewhat standard sizes (you need high explosive, armour piercing, incendiary, tracer ammo, etc., plus different fuses, and so on.)
Old tanks are often modernized with new guns, engines, electronics, etc., but the really old tanks in storage will have old guns that use different ammo than newer ones. Russia has literally millions of tonnes of old Cold War era ammo, but it's probably not been stored properly so will be in pretty poor condition.
Edit. Here's a link to a chart of different artillery rounds, keep in mind that Ukraine is operating both Warsaw Pact and NATO gear so their logistics will be complex.
https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/row/arty_frame.htm
Thanks for that^^^
the trouble with the western economy is it relies on people on extremely low wages to make stuff for us for low prices.
Don't worry, in our new glorious route to the future the ERG and Trussbaby are making us the low wage centre of the west.
I had a good chat with a friend in Moscow this morning.
But how many Russians would dare to contradict the Putin line on a call that is likely being monitored? Such is the level of censorship and control of communications in Russia, many of its citizens will be wary when contacted by friends, colleagues and family in the West.
There's a good story in the NY Times here:
They Are Watching: Inside Russia’s Vast Surveillance State
It seems that the state monitors posts and messages. Some have been arrested within hours of sending / writing something controversial. The monitoring at Roskomnadzor picks up on anything negative and the FSB can strike almost immediately.
Pretty shitty.
I see those scumbags are currently targeting Odesa with Iranian loitering munitions. Lots of videos doing the rounds. Rob Lee's Twitter etc.
Plenty of interesting stuff on there regarding the mobilisation of troops, too...
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
I feel desperately sad about this, I have both Russian and Ukrainian colleagues who are very close professionally and also thankfully still as friends. My UKR colleague was very worried but now some normality (whatever that means) is returning to his extended family in the Kyiv area; my Russian colleague is now worried for extended family who have call up age sons, none of them believe in the task or want to fight but if the time comes will have no choice.
It feels like a poorly trained and led, poorly equipped conscript army that doesn't want to be there is on a hiding to nothing. Outgunned by a resilient army bolstered by hi-tech NATO kit, it's looking like just slaughter waiting to happen. I'm struggling to justify to myself whether it's right to continue to pursue that - thousands of 'innocents' will die. Yet of course I can't see an option to stop and allow Russia to regroup and re-arm.
What a ****ing mess, driven in the main by one man....
thousands of ‘innocents’ will die.
The majority of deaths in wars over the millennia have been (relatively) innocent, just caught up in events they have little control over. That doesn't mean that sometimes there is a clear good side and bad side and that we should hope for the good side to win. In this case, Ukraine is unambiguously the victim, they did nothing wrong, so we need to hope for Russia to lose. That will mean a lot of Russian conscripts will die, they have my sympathy, but it better for Ukraine to win than for Ukraine to surrender. Of course, Russian soldiers can surrender to Ukraine can be treated according to the Geneva conventions if they don't want to fight. Russia doesn't give Ukrainian soldiers that option, they face torture and murder if they surrender.
The USA is wanting this war (he does use that word at least) to last as long as possible
Russia has not stopped gas supplies it is Europe who do not want it. Russians get gas cheaper than they used to and European governments are making big profits by doubling the price for their people
Some truth to those points, I’d say. The Russian military is being degraded every day and the US arms manufacturers are making out like bandits as well as field testing and demo’ing their products. It’d be strange if the US wasn’t entirely unhappy for the situation to continue.
It’s also true that Europe stopped gas imports, cancelling Nordstrom 2 etc, and that the price of gas has soared for consumers while the producers have made a killing.
^ agree completely, and of course there's no option for UKR really. But usually most modern era wars where conscription was used, while many didn't want to be conscripted (else they'd have signed up voluntarily?) at least they were being conscripted for a cause they in the main supported. I think most WW2 German conscripts believed or at least were brought to believe in the cause, or were hidden from what was behind it. Allied call ups likewise, could see that Nazism needed to be defeated.
I get too that professional soldiers get sent to wars they maybe don't really believe in, but I guess when you become a professional soldier you kind of give that option up.
it better for Ukraine to win than for Ukraine to surrender
Yeah, if they cede territory to Russia then this might just keep happening. If Russia get put back in their box, maybe these sacrifices will save many lives in the future.
The USA is wanting this war (he does use that word at least) to last as long as possible
Utter nonsense. Just quit with the "all the ills of the world are the fault of the U.S." This is on Putin, not the U.S.
Russia has not stopped gas supplies it is Europe who do not want it.
It has. This is a flat-out lie from Putin. Please stop repeating Russian misinformation.
If Russia get put back in their box, maybe these sacrifices will save many lives in the future.
Agreed. Not too long ago, Putin assumed that the Russian annexation of Ukraine would be a done deal and made thinly veiled threats against the Baltic states and Poland. Russia has also spent $300m since 2014 in cultivating a network of Russia friendly politicians around the world. Before Russia's military was exposed as a Potemkin Village, it was clear that Putin's ambitions extended beyond Kyiv.
The money the US has spent (and will spend) represents an absolute bargain in geopolitical terms. Not only severely degrades a major adversary's ability to wage war, potentially for decades, it strengthens NATO alliances, provides opportunities for its weaponry to be tested and assessed in a real war, and doesn't even require US combat losses.
And it may even destabilise Russia enough to provoke regime change.
Please stop repeating Russian misinformation.
I don't think that the poster was attempting to repeat Russian misinformation, they were quoting a conversation with a Muscovite friend and followed up with this:
I countered much of the above but it wasn’t sinking in. Still some way to go before reality hits home I think.
And it may even destabilise Russia enough to provoke regime change.
US General on possible consequences of a Ukrainian victory.
The potential breakup of the Russian Federation may well be the least worst outcome.
Of course nobody thought it’d go this badly. Best get all the potential troublemakers off the streets and somewhere you can indoctrinate and keep tabs on them. And chuck the worst of them into the front line because why not?
Think of it as mass defenestration but without actually having to lift a finger yourself. Worst get wiped out, the unfaithful go into exile and the rest don't have enough clout to fart in the wrong direction.
I don’t think that the poster was attempting to repeat Russian misinformation,
Sorry, my post was responding to DrJ's endorsement of Russian misinformation, not to the factual reporting of what a Russian said.
The original Telegraph article:
Prepare for Russia itself to disintegrate
The Kremlin’s disastrous losses in Ukraine could result in the collapse of the Russian Federation
BEN HODGES13 September 2022 • 5:00pm
It is becoming increasingly clear that Ukraine is going to win this war and that the Kremlin faces a historic crisis of confidence. Indeed, I now believe it is a genuine possibility that Vladimir Putin’s exposed weaknesses are so severe that we might be witnessing the beginning of the end – not only of his regime, but of the Russian Federation itself.
This vast empire encompassing more than 120 ethnic groups is on an unsustainable footing, and like that famous Hemingway quote, its collapse may be gradual at first but could quickly become a sudden, violent and uncontrollable event. If we fail to prepare for this possibility in the way that we failed to prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could introduce immense instability to our geopolitics.
I see at least three factors that could lead to the Federation’s collapse. The first is the breakdown of domestic confidence in the Russian Army, which has traditionally been at the core of the Kremlin’s legitimacy. Its humiliation in Ukraine is now almost complete, with the proud Black Sea Fleet still hiding behind Crimea, too frightened to take action against a country that doesn’t even have a navy.
And Russian men, once enticed by the military’s pay offers, are shunning recruitment en masse in the knowledge of the fate the battlefield holds for them. This has exacerbated the disproportionate recruitment of ethnic minorities from Chechnya and other nations on the edges of the Federation – the easiest groups to use as cannon fodder – which has raised grievances that won’t easily be forgotten.
If some militant Chechens were to decide to trigger another war of independence, where would Putin find the military resources to fight it now that he has dedicated so much to Ukraine? He will no doubt be aware that if such a war is won quickly and decisively by the Chechens, it could trigger a wave of similar insurgencies across the Federation.
Second, the damage suffered by the Russian economy has been too devastating to sustain a population of 144 million. The loss of energy markets, which compensated for the country’s lack of modern industries, cannot be reversed. European governments will not rely again on Nord Stream 1, having witnessed how easily it can be turned off, and are already making long-term investments in domestic energy supply.Russia has also relied on arms exports, but which country will be interested in buying its equipment or weapons now? Such an economic crisis can be sustained for months in the misplaced hope that business will one day return – but even in Russia the well of stoicism has its limits.
This brings us to the third factor, which is the sparse nature of Russia’s population. For despite possessing 70 times the landmass of the United Kingdom, the Federation has just twice the population. These numbers make civic solidarity difficult to achieve in the best of times, but now, with the metropole in a weak position, any sense of national identity could rapidly deteriorate.
Western sanctions will force Moscow’s elites to make difficult economic trade-offs. They will inevitably bail-out the middle classes in the capital, who pose a more immediate threat to officials, to the detriment of minority populations in the constituent nations.
Seen this way, it is shocking how little discussion there has been about the potential end of the Russian Federation. We ought to be asking difficult questions now lest they be sprung on us out of nowhere.
For instance, how would this play out in a country that has considerable stockpiles of nuclear weapons and few centres of power? Who would extract the nukes? How do we avoid leakage of weapons and militants into the Baltic states? Is a major internal conflict inevitable or can the collapse be contained within a political context?
Combined, these dilemmas pose a very significant challenge for the West. Get it wrong and we could face disaster. Our failure to prepare for the last Russian collapse some 30 years ago, and the internal unrest that ensued in its aftermath, arguably led to the Putin presidency. We cannot risk being unprepared a second time.
Sorry, my post was responding to DrJ’s endorsement of Russian misinformation, not to the factual reporting of what a Russian said.
In that case I stand corrected. Thank you!
Sorry, my post was responding to DrJ’s endorsement of Russian misinformation
I wouldn't call it an endorsement, he was just acknowledging that, like all good lies, they hide behind a veil of truth.
Seen this way, it is shocking how little discussion there has been about the potential end of the Russian Federation. We ought to be asking difficult questions now lest they be sprung on us out of nowhere.
For instance, how would this play out in a country that has considerable stockpiles of nuclear weapons and few centres of power? Who would extract the nukes? How do we avoid leakage of weapons and militants into the Baltic states? Is a major internal conflict inevitable or can the collapse be contained within a political context?
Combined, these dilemmas pose a very significant challenge for the West. Get it wrong and we could face disaster. Our failure to prepare for the last Russian collapse some 30 years ago, and the internal unrest that ensued in its aftermath, arguably led to the Putin presidency. We cannot risk being unprepared a second time.
This is quite chilling. Nine months ago, Russia looked like a Superpower, now it's reduced to a homeless wino begging for scraps from random strangers. I'm old enough to remember the collapse of the USSR, the collapse of the Russian Empire actually scares me more because Gorbachev was a sensible guy, Putin seems to be in panic mode.
This thread has been something of both a comfort and a source of nightmares, but always informative and interesting.
I was reading a David Aaronovich piece in yesterday's Times, concerning Putins' mobilisation speech and something popped out at me; in it, Putin was claiming that Nato is at the gates and that the nuclear threat and talk was coming from our side. Bearing in mind that the speech was a performance for the home audience, he goes on to say that the use of nuclear weapons is a double-edged sword and that the wind can blow either way.....now, considering that, as far as we all know, it's Russia that are doing the atom-chat, could that snippet have been something of a dog-whistle to show that they don't actually intend to use nukes?
Nine months ago, Russia looked like a Superpower,
Its never looked like a superpower to anyone with a basic grasp of economics. Economy slightly bigger than Italy's (not any more) with a defense budget which last year was less than the UK. Its been in the interests of the west's military industrial complex to play up the Russian threat to keep defence budgets up.
could that snippet have been something of a dog-whistle to show that they don’t actually intend to use nukes?
Washington Post have an article about backchannel talks between Biden administration and Russia about U.S. response to potential Russian use of nukes. That's obviously "leaked" at the direction of the White House. Backchannelling like this is intended to let leaders posture for their supporters, but to reassure the other side that it's just posturing. I imagine that the U.S. has laid out its options if Russia uses nukes and that there are escalation options available for NATO short of a full-blown nuclear war, but that will still go very badly for Russia.
U.S. has sent private warnings to Russia against using a nuclear weapon
The Biden administration has been sending messages to Moscow about the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine
”The USA is wanting this war (he does use that word at least) to last as long as possible”
Utter nonsense. Just quit with the “all the ills of the world are the fault of the U.S.” This is on Putin, not the U.S.
Nobody said that or anything like it.
“Russia has not stopped gas supplies it is Europe who do not want it.”
It has. This is a flat-out lie from Putin. Please stop repeating Russian misinformation.
So what happened to NS2? Who is talking about reducing reliance on Russian gas? Who is inventing stuff about fracking? Putin? No. That’s our game. Maybe wise, maybe justified, but it’s us who are doing it.
snip...thousands of ‘innocents’ will die...
Absolutely, but the protests in Russia should have started not on conscription but in February or before. "Innocent" Russians are now paying for a willingness to turn the other cheek because six months ago this didn't affect them, "just" Ukrainians and Russian minorities
Its been in the interests of the west’s military industrial complex to play up the Russian threat to keep defence budgets up.
Ummm. I don't really think the threat has been played up given they have just invaded a neighbouring country
Absolutely, but the protests in Russia should have started not on conscription but in February or before. “Innocent” Russians are now paying for a willingness to turn the other cheek because six months ago this didn’t affect them, “just” Ukrainians and Russian minorities
You do remember the bit about Putin controlling the media? Right?
So what happened to NS2?
NS2 was always an unnecessary construct designed to move gas without Russia being beholden to Ukraine and other newly-independent states where Soviet-era pipelines run
NS2 was pushed through by German leaders against the wishes of the EU, USA and other NATO allies who didn't agree that Europe should be so reliant on an expansionist Russia with the power to damage the economies of those newly-independent states
The additional volumes should have been unnecessary in times of moving towards renewables, etc. You only have to look at Europe managing for months solely on a reduced NS1 to demonstrate that
Ummm. I don’t really think the threat has been played up given they have just invaded a neighbouring country
They did, but it’s now clear that if they’d tried invading a NATO country they’d have had their arses kicked all the way to Kamchatka.
You do remember the bit about Putin controlling the media? Right?
Telegram is massively popular amongst the youth. Russian-speakers in Ukraine have family in Russia, etc
NS2 was always an unnecessary construct designed to move gas without Russia being beholden to Ukraine and other newly-independent states where Soviet-era pipelines run
NS2 was pushed through by German leaders against the wishes of the EU, USA and other NATO allies who didn’t agree that Europe should be so reliant on an expansionist Russia with the power to damage the economies of those newly-independent states
The additional volumes should have been unnecessary in times of moving towards renewables, etc. You only have to look at Europe managing for months solely on a reduced NS1 to demonstrate that
I don’t disagree, but the point is that it wasn’t Putin who cancelled it. The Europeans decided they didn’t want NS2 gas, or indeed any Russian gas if they can help it. Unfortunately for us there are some places where we can’t easily replace it, hence Russia is still sending LNG to Greece.
NS1 was switched off by Russia. They gradually turned volumes down before stopping it completely, while blaming sanctions for not having a necessary turbine.
Siemens were returning the turbine that was in Canada for servicing, but Russia wouldn't make the necessary arrangements to collect it despite it being internationally exempt from sanctions
So obviously I dreamed that the EU plan to reduce Russian gas imports, and articles like e.g. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/the-eu-plan-to-reduce-russian-gas-imports-by-two-thirds-by-the-end-of-2022-practical-realities-and-implications/
are just part of a wild fantasy. Yes, it’s all coming back to me now…
Putin's a secret environmentalist and his plan all along was to reduce EU dependence on natural gas and spur heavy investment in renewables.
Putin master genius strikes again.
Putin’s a secret environmentalist and his plan all along was to reduce EU dependence on natural gas and spur heavy investment in renewables.
Putin master genius strikes again.
Luckily he was no match for the super intellect of Jacob Rees Mogg, who realised that the perfect way to reduce our dependence on gas is to …. Licence more gas drilling and kill off renewables.
Poor sods. 😔
So obviously I dreamed that the EU plan to reduce Russian gas imports, and articles like e.g....snip
Are we at cross-purposes here? The article you link to is about not funding Russia's armed forces in the light of their illegal invasion of Ukraine. The plan was agreed a fortnight after the invasion...
Link me to the post that outlines the point that you're making, I'm sorry but I think I missed it (both the point and the post 🙂 )
It doesn't alter the fact that Russia switched NS1 off
Telegram is massively popular amongst the youth. Russian-speakers in Ukraine have family in Russia, etc
Whilst true that doesn't negate my point. There were plenty accounts of folk telling their relatives what was really going on and being told they were being lied to because their relatives are in the thrall of the carefully propogated Kremlin narrative. Remember all those newscasters that chose to speak out and immediately go into hiding? The channels that shut down because they wouldn't play the game? Putin is all about the information war and thus far he's seemingly been right on top of it.
There were plenty accounts of folk telling their relatives what was really going on and being told they were being lied to because their relatives are in the thrall of the carefully propogated Kremlin narrative. Remember all those newscasters that chose to speak out and immediately go into hiding? The channels that shut down because they wouldn’t play the game? Putin is all about the information war and thus far he’s seemingly been right on top of it
If (insert popular news reporter/anchor of choice) had displayed "NO WAR. Stop the war. Don't believe propaganda. They are lying to you here." in their Live TV News studios before being arrested and taken to a capital city Police Station, might you have thought that someone who has access to foreign newsfeeds and is a clear-thinker has a point. Might you at least look online?
If you did look, you'd find that they'd posted a video online earlier where they explained that they were ashamed to have worked for years spreading propaganda.
You'd have found the tweets and videos from the team of a 10x jailed and once-poisoned imprisoned opposition leader and, of course, the message from the President of the invaded country.
You might also have wondered why the law was changed a fortnight before to make "public dissemination of deliberately false information about the use of the Armed Forces of (insert country name here)" illegal, just after the "Special Operation" was announced.
Then when appearing in Court the news anchor said,"What's going on here is absurd. War is horror, blood and shame.", before being found guilty and fined.
Might that one example on State TV make you think? Or maybe the dozens of resignations, some very high profile, including former chief editor of RT, Maria Baronova.
Or do you think this "special operation" doesn’t affect me, “just” Ukrainians and Russian minorities?
You only have to look at the Crimean beach scene six weeks ago with all of the lovely fabric sun shelters to realise what Russians thought, just before UKR forces bombard a RF base there and thousands of holiday makers flee in panic. Why not do something then?
Are we at cross-purposes here?
Possibly, but my point has not changed since I made it on the last page: Russia has not stopped gas exports to Europe. Europe have done what they can to stop importing gas from Russia. Hence Putin’s reported claim that “Russia has not stopped gas exports, it is Europe that doesn’t want them” is not without some merit.
The article you link to is about not funding Russia’s armed forces in the light of their illegal invasion of Ukraine. The plan was agreed a fortnight after the invasion…
That article was pretty much the first that appeared when I Googled “EU limiting gas imports from Russia”. The point of linking to it was just to show that the EU have been very active in reducing gas imports, even without Putin’s intervention, and well before the closure of NS1.
Link me to the post that outlines the point that you’re making, I’m sorry but I think I missed it (both the point and the post 🙂 )
It doesn’t alter the fact that Russia switched NS1 off
No it doesn’t, but that is a side issue. NS1 is not the only export route for Russian gas.
“Russia has not stopped gas exports, it is Europe that doesn’t want them” is not without some merit.
Russia shut off the pipeline. Putin is lying about that. Pretty much everything coming out of the Kremlin is misinformation, it's amazing you haven't spotted that by now.