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Ukraine was invented in 1917
You could claim that Finland was 'invented' in 1917 too but it'd be pretty inaccurate from a historical perspective.
which would pretty much guarantee the collapse of the Russian economy
And give the Russian people a genuine grievance surely?
And give the Russian people a genuine grievance surely?
I guess the hope is that the Russian people understand that the sanctions are a result of their leader choosing to invade Ukraine, might not be the case due to the controlled media however.
IIRC a lot of the proposed sanctions are on leaders and people close to Putin, so they don't hurt the Russian people so much but hopefully influence Putin.
You could claim that Finland was ‘invented’ in 1917 too but it’d be pretty inaccurate from a historical perspective.
We all know Finland doesn't exist at all!
I think the most severe and targeted seizure sanctions against privately-held Russian assets in Europe is the only possible recourse that our governments have at this point.
You think that will happen? I think it's pretty much guaranteed that despite all the tough talk and breast beating, this will be right at the bottom of the list of actions that will be taken. The west is addicted to dirty russian money, and they wonder why Russia then feels empowered to do what it likes?
EEK! Its a good job there haven't been any increase in gas prices recently, as this should send them through the roof
Oh... erm...
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1496080150085177344?s=20&t=ENZSTLzu9DL0iUrnsYpj5Q
The west is addicted to dirty russian money, and they wonder why Russia then feels empowered to do what it likes?
The West? Or just the UK? There was a guy on radio 4 this morning saying that the entire financial system in The City has been geared to laundering dirty Russain money for 3 decades now, so short of changing the entire system theres not much you can do, even if there were any will to do so, which there obviously isn't
I heard Caroline Lucas talking about Russian money in the Conservative party, Labour really should go hard after this.
As should the media.
The West? Or just the UK?
Well certainly the UK. Probably most of the main EU states too. The US has enough dirty money from South and Central American drug cartels and middle eastern oil so I guess they've managed to stay clear of the oligarchs.
I guess the hope is that the Russian people understand that the sanctions are a result of their leader choosing to invade Ukraine, might not be the case due to the controlled media however.
Not a chance in hell. Convincing them it's unfair would be Putin's easiest job by far. If they already think Russian actions are justified then they'll jump to that conclusion on their own. Have you ever had any dealings with.. people, before?
Probably most of the main EU states too.
...and you're basing that statement on what, exactly?
Convincing them it’s unfair would be Putin’s easiest job by far.
Well, we have many in the UK pushing the line that it is Russia under threat, not the ex-USSR independent countries that border it... so if people can be convinced of that outside Russia, it should be a very easy sell inside Russia (apart from in "New Russia", if they have to experience first hand what an expanding RF means for them directly).
…and you’re basing that statement on what, exactly?
Germany and France are normally implicated in sheltering money connected to Putin. Not on the same scale us the UK though.
Probably most of the main EU states too.
The flow of Russian money into Germany makes the levels of "investments" in London pale by comparison. east German banks were favorites for Soviet era party apparatchiks to hide money, so there's a already a recognised path for money you don't want traced, thousands of Russians emigrated to Germany in the 1990s and it went all the way the Schroder who worked for Gazprom and then Rosneft
IIRC a lot of the proposed sanctions are on leaders and people close to Putin, so they don’t hurt the Russian people so much but hopefully influence Putin.
Don't hurt the Russian people, directly...
The thing is such things do tend to trickledown, but the time it takes for normal Russians to see their own quality of life degrade to the point that they become unhappy enough to try and unseat Putin and his cronies will be long after Ukraine has been taken over completely.
I don't disagree that Significant and lasting sanctions need to be imposed swiftly, and it goes well beyond Ukraine; The Russian "criminal Elite" need to stop laundering their ill-gotten gains though the UK, and be prevented from meddling in our domestic politics.
The main goal of these sanctions now needs to be, to create enough unrest amongst the Oligarchs that they basically lynch Putin. You only get somewhere by ****ing with the wealthy Russians, not the Proles.
I really don't know how achievable such an aim would really be right now...
This isn't just about making NATO look weak, it's about showing a threat to the rest of Eastern Europe and the EU, making it clear they can't rely on the west to protect their sovereignty or integrity as well as scoring "Strong Man" points domestically for Putin..
EEK! Its a good job there haven’t been any increase in gas prices recently, as this should send them through the roofOh… erm…
Europe has been outbidding pretty much everyone for LNG for a few months now, I'll try and dig the FT article out for you.
Some ships from the US have made it as far as India then changed customers and sailed to Europe.
Not going to make things cheaper but there seems to have been some expectation that supply issues from Russia would occur.
Edit https://www.ft.com/content/4885b7f5-97a2-4e66-af91-a9211956b0f5
Obviously seems like not enough to meet demand.
Did someone mention fracking.......?
It would appear that none of the sanctioned banks are in the top 10 russian banks.
While we wait, russian banks and oligarchs will continue re-locating assets to minimise the impact of further sanctions.
It would appear that none of the sanctioned banks are in the top 10 russian banks
They need to be targeted: Rossiya Bank will be top of the list
The sanctions are underwhelming - individuals already under US sanctions, and some smaller banks.
All of this, the invasion, the economic impact, the sanctions, the oil and gas, the violation of sovereignty, the lives that will be lost, the potential worldwide impact of a war...
..the most popular article on BBC news is about a dancer who is leaving Strictly Come Dancing.
..the most popular article on BBC news is about a dancer who is leaving Strictly Come Dancing.
Well there's sod-all we can do about Russia - but the writing was on the wall for Oti as soon as she switched sides to ITV! 🙂
Newsthump are on form today
Boris Johnson to sanction Russia by only letting them launder money on weekdays
Vladimir Putin declares Chelsea an independent protectorate of Russia
😂
After all the bluster it's clear they intend to do nothing. I said on this thread a while back this was a stitch-up between Putin and the west. It seems to me that's what's happening. Russia gets more territory/power, the west gets to look virtuous in the face of 'evil'. The interests of Ukraine don't even come into it. It's probably a safe bet that NS2 will be approved in a couple of years time when the dust has settled.
and some smaller banks.
From Wikipedia;
On December 26, 2006, the board of directors of Rossiya Bank elected its new Management Committee consisting of Dmitry Lebedev (Head, Director General), Alexander Germanov, Konstantin Gorbachyov, Faniya Kabalina, Mikhail Klishin, Alexander Markin and Boris Tikhonenko.
I hate to agree with you Daz, but I bet the Johnson, for one, is thanking Vlad for the distraction from the other uncomfortable stuff, so he can indulge in a bit of macho posturing and sabre-rattling without needing to follow it up by actually doing anything
Sanctions on powerful individuals is an interesting idea.
Tell you what it's really nice having a variety of voices in this thread now! It got a bit much when it was one or two peeps picking fights with anyone who dared to contribute
Some russian bank shares rise after sanctions announcement - and some other interesting comment
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/shares-russias-largest-banks-sber-vtb-rebound-sanction-reports-2022-02-22/
The sanctions will have limited effect until the major banks and oligarchs such as Deripaska are targeted.
Seems to me it would be logical and sensible for all countries intending to impose sanctions to act in a fully co-ordinated way; they may be doing so but I'm not convinced.
The UK could align with existing US sanctions in addition to imposing it's own unilaterally.
Cyprus is well known for granting citizenship to oligarchs and facilitating the laundering of dirty money; apply pressure to the cypriot govs - both greek and turkish.
Even if the military aspects are contained the economic impacts are likely to be significant and widespread.
Will sanctions cause putin to re-think or will he react by saying...sod it, full scale invasion coming up?
There's no happy ending here - unless Putin dies suddenly and soon and is replaced by someone more benign and less belligerent but I'm not aware there is an annointed one to replace him.
From Wikipedia;
On December 26, 2006, the board of directors of Rossiya Bank elected its new Management Committee consisting of Dmitry Lebedev (Head, Director General), Alexander Germanov, Konstantin Gorbachyov, Faniya Kabalina, Mikhail Klishin, Alexander Markin and Boris Tikhonenko.
Do you think for a minute that Putin hasn't priced this in?
Will sanctions cause putin to re-think or will he react by saying…sod it, full scale invasion coming up?
I think the whole point now is that absolutely nobody can even attempt to second guess what he'll do next. There was an expert on Russian politics on Channel 4 news the other night who compared Putin to Hitler* in his bunker. He's now completely paranoid (just look at his Covid social distancing thing), totally detached from any kind of reality, sees enemies everywhere and listens to absolutely nobody.
Did that mad display yesterday look like the behaviour of anyone sane?
*sorry for invoking Godwins law
unless Putin dies suddenly and soon
If that happens, and assuming it's not them, russian generals will assume he's been assasinated by the west. Probably not a scenario worth entertaining 😳.
There was an expert on Russian politics on Channel 4 news the other night who compared Putin to Hitler* in his bunker
I'd rather that than Hitler in the beer halls, I think... ??
As the US, UK and other countries have spent so much talking about sanctioning organisations and individuals Putin and others have time to move assets and take other steps to mitigate effects of possible sanctions.
It's what any other despot/dictator would do.
Do you think for a minute that Putin hasn’t priced this in?
Yeah probably, but the point is, this bank is an obvious first step, It's essential for Russia's wholesale electricity market and where Putin's cronies get their money from (commisions). I don't think Johnson's list goes far enough either
My worry is that everyone is overestimating Putin's Machiavellian mastery, talking about his plans and strategy like he is a chess master at the top of his game. He now looks to me like he is in physical and mental decline, and that is a much bigger problem, an increasingly weak and paranoid dictator losing control of his own mind and lashing out to prove his power.
I think it's fair to say that now he has a taste for it he's unlikely to stop
shermer - fair point but, more importantly, there's no serious opposition to him and the sanctions won't leave him destitute so from his perspective...why not?
Do Ukraine have the capability to drop some bombs on the Kremlin?
Do Ukraine have the capability to drop some bombs on the Kremlin?
Yeah that'll work. I see the armchair generals are back. 🙄
Not yet, but they're expecting a delivery tomorrow
If that happens, and assuming it’s not them, russian generals will assume he’s been assasinated by the west. Probably not a scenario worth entertaining 😳.
It's not either or. Putin being taken out by interests within Russia, and then those responsible for that action blaming the "West" (more likely to blame one of the "buffer states" than the USA, IMHO, as pretext for a winnable territory war to cement their position as the new "strong" leader), is a very believable scenario. I know that it's necessary to separate out "Putin" from "Russia", but the result of him shaping how Russia is governed so completely and totally is that anyone replacing him through force is likely to want to rule in a very similar way. He's set a template that he has structurally embedded for his own purposes, but which also means we're unlikely to see a huge positive change if he is removed.
Johnsons sanction package look weak
Doesn't touch some of Putins favourite oligarchs, including abramaovich or Johnsons biggest donors.
Joke
EU taking tougher stance
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1496179361577373706?t=GQoN8c62YOPGsGafMMDmZw&s=19
Yeah probably, but the point is, this bank is an obvious first step, It’s essential for Russia’s wholesale electricity market and where Putin’s cronies get their money from (commisions). I don’t think Johnson’s list goes far enough either
Well that's the problem , isn't it? Johnson's list probably won't hurt enough to change Putin's behaviour, which rather undermines the point of sanctions.
Do Ukraine have the capability to drop some bombs on the Kremlin?
They have no ballistic missiles. I don't know about cruise missiles.
Their airforce could, but the Rissian airforce is stronger as is, I suspect, the Russian Air defence system.
I suspect that if the invasion of the rest of the country goes ahead the retaliation on Russian soil will have to take a similar form to that used by the Chechens, mass hostage taking for example, much easier to achieve.
.
What would bombing the Kremlin actually achieve?
The Ukrainians will not bomb the Kremlin any more than NATO will invade Russia and Putin knows this. I was wondering what he was up to until I saw that speech. Now we know what he’s up to - the man’s a fruit loop - lost the plot. Whatever happens now will end badly I fear.
What would bombing the Kremlin actually achieve?
A Kremlin Crumble.. or positively better an Eton Mess..?
What would bombing the Kremlin actually achieve?
I just wanted to know how much of an appetite there would be in Moscow if they were also on the receiving end of some bombs.
I also wanted to know if the Russians took their bombs back after the wall fell.
Now we know what he’s up to – the man’s a fruit loop – lost the plot. Whatever happens now will end badly I fear.
A deeply paranoid man that wants an empire and has surrounded himself with yes men after eliminating any dissenting voices is what I see.
So yes, no good outcomes i cam can envisage as being realistic.
A deeply paranoid man that wants an empire
Maybe he’s just bored and wants something to do? Poor bloke’s been holed up on his own in an austere palace for past two years. It would drive anyone mad.
Hed be less lonely if he had a sensible length table
I also wanted to know if the Russians took their bombs back after the wall fell.
Yes, they did.
I just wanted to know how much of an appetite there would be in Moscow if they were also on the receiving end of some bombs.
I would imagine he would retaliate by nuking the shit out of the Ukraine. That’ll learn em
Can't help but think poor Zelensky is thinking he didn't sign up for this shit. One minute he's playing at being the president in a tv sitcom, next he's being threatened in real life by the Russian Gangster-in-chief. It can't be a comfortable place to be. He's probably asking his scriptwriters what to do, and probably has a plane on standby to whisk him to exile in the US.
Maybe he’s just bored and wants something to do? Poor bloke’s been holed up on his own in an austere palace for past two years. It would drive anyone mad
Maybe you could have a word and tell him that you can actually spend the entire night getting leathered and talking bollocks in the pub, sat next to someone who tests positive for Covid the following morning, and you still won’t need the long tables because you didn’t get it 😂
Ukraine does have ship launched cruise missile capability & military strength of 200,000 with 900,000 reserves.
No doubt Russia could take Ukraine,but not without a lot of bloodshed and holding it would be nigh impossible against an unwilling population.
His biggest problem is that taking Ukraine puts him right on NATOs border, which is exactly what he wants to avoid in Ukraine.
Maybe he’s just bored and wants something to do?
Sort of, but there’s more to it than that
Maybe if Putin finally came out and went for a night out down Canal Street, he’d be a bit less aggressive.
I’ve never seen a man pining more to indulge his true desire for a night singing ABBA on the karaoke at Cruz, then some cock
If rumours are to be believed, denizens of manc nightlife might be a little old for him.
If Instagram Liz’s moody lighting and strategically placed Union Jack doesn’t have Putin getting those troops running back across the border then god only knows what will
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1496139083588022282?s=21
Or maybe the fact that it’s mid afternoon, broad daylight and she’s got the curtains drawn and the light on might make them question her mental faculties, so probably no need to bother
Can’t help but think poor Zelensky is thinking he didn’t sign up for this shit. One minute he’s playing at being the president in a tv sitcom, next he’s being threatened in real life by the Russian Gangster-in-chief. It can’t be a comfortable place to be.
How many Ukrainians do you think are comfortable right now?
He’s probably asking his scriptwriters what to do,
I doubt it, he has a lot of very serious professional advisors who believe in Ukraine
and probably has a plane on standby to whisk him to exile in the US.
Nope, I expect he'll hold out to the end, he's not part of that political elite who can fund living in exile and I think that he's daft enough to stay because he believes in Ukraine
Or maybe the fact that it’s mid afternoon, broad daylight and she’s got the curtains drawn and the light on might make them question her mental faculties,
No, that's the photographer we are paying very well to take these
Maybe he/she should have drawn the curtains fully to maintain the charade that it isn’t a completely farcical set up photo op
I’d like to think it’s been done deliberately. Like one of those poor designers who have to design stuff for the muppet ‘candidates’ on the Apprentice
Truss is holding that pen in her fist the same way my 5 year old niece does.
His biggest problem is that taking Ukraine puts him right on NATOs border, which is exactly what he wants to avoid in Ukraine.
Norway
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
And of those countries, which of those fall into the category of “former soviet”? So maybe he’ll run the same playbook in the Baltic states and Poland now that he knows he can?
The UK sanctions do look incredibly weak, sure it gives them the ability to ramp them up but the only think that might have made Putin think twice is to implement the most severe sanctions right from the start. But ofc that would hit Tory funding, their investments and their mates,
And potentially some members of thee Lords, t.ex Lebedev
Today I signed our first wave of sanctions targeting oligarchs and banks close to the Kremlin. We will keep ratcheting up sanctions if Russia refuses to de-escalate.
Bless.
It's like she thinks she's having any effect at all.
Surely even she can't be that deluded. Oh... erm...
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1496394034239221762?s=20&t=gQgltarrPEZc3Rlxq1gAHA
So the Tory party will be continuing to take all that dodgy Russian cash, eh Liz?
Righto...
willard Full Member
And of those countries, which of those fall into the category of “former soviet”? So maybe he’ll run the same playbook in the Baltic states and Poland now that he knows he can?
I think they're all NATO member states. Any attempt to use Putin's Ukraine playbook on them would be much more likely to result in horrific escalation. What's happening in Ukraine is bad enough, hopefully Putin is not so unstable as to risk WWIII by directly invading a NATO member.
hopefully Putin is not so unstable as to risk WWIII by directly invading a NATO member.
Give him time...
hopefully Putin is not so unstable as to risk WWIII by directly invading a NATO member.
Let's be honest, looking at just how 'unstable' he looks at the moment is why we're all so worried. He looks madder than a box of frogs to me, sat at the end of his giant table like some mad king, eating a big portion of madness.
You just need to see the looks on those poor blokes faces who were arranged in front of him the other day. A look that said, collectively... 'OH SHIT!! He's gone completely hatstand"
Quite, quite mad.
On that basis isn't it long time we went back & liberated the people of Bordeaux....?
Let’s be honest, looking at just how ‘unstable’ he looks at the moment is why we’re all so worried. He looks madder than a box of frogs to me, sat at the end of his giant table like some mad king, eating a big portion of madness.
You just need to see the looks on those poor blokes faces who were arranged in front of him the other day. A look that said, collectively… ‘OH SHIT!! He’s gone completely hatstand”
Agreed.
He is, quite literally, the definition of lunatic.
He is, quite literally, the definition of lunatic
That's lucky, the moon is waning
Sat at the end of that table, Putin reminds me of Tony Montana.
Didn't realise Dan Walker had moved into news presenting. Felt sorry for him when he got the boot from MOTD but thought he was excellent in that clip. He took a completely different approach to that which we are used to. Maybe it's because in his previous job he had to 'hide' his intelligence and he's transferred that skill to interviewing politicians, we are so used to the interviewer looking for any opportunity to demonstrate how smart they are that it's refreshing to see a sports presenter playing rope-a-dope with a government minister (and Truss is certainly a dope if nothing else...)
Micah Richards fronting Newsnight? Robbie Savage on Hardtalk? Bring it on I say.
I imagine that anyone from Finland is very, very concerned at Putin's remarks too.
Meanwhile in Brexit Blighty, we wake to the news that the government is sanctioning three - yes three - individuals and five banks that noone has heard of.
A large amount of grubby cash is being laundered in London and the Tories are in hock to Russian donors. There may or may not be some link between the piss-poorness of the UK's sanctions and the amount of money propping up an increasingly dogmatic Conservative Party.