MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
UKIP will win Clacton, Labour will hold Heywood but with the potential for a strong UKIP showing. No doubt tomorrow Clacton will make all the headlines with much UKIP drum banging but I think the voting in Manchester could be more significant.
Left leaning Fabian society published a piece today entitled "Revolt on the Left" (I read the summary but 50 pages is beyond me)
[i]UKIP divides the Labour party internally. To date, senior Labour figures have been unable to agree whether a UKIP really problem exists and, if it does, how problematic it is likely to prove.
‘Revolt on the Left’ argues that UKIP poses a clear and present danger to Labour’s 2015 hopes and, left unchecked, could threaten to pull apart the party’s historic electoral coalition and challenge it in large swathes of its heartland territory. It incorporates new demographic analysis that, constituency by constituency, measures UKIP’s threat to the two main political parties.[/i]
[url= http://www.fabians.org.uk/publications/revolt-on-the-left-labours-ukip-problem-and-how-it-can-be-overcome/ ]link[/url]
yes the Tories are about to loose a seat to a UKIP Tory defector and what we should talk about is Labour and their issues with UKIP. 😯
If labour are divided by UKIP WTF are the tories then ? split asunder? Ravaged? Destroyed? Ruptured ? parted etc
You are a spin doctor for the tories I assume
FACE PALM
Some of your views are not even remotely supported by reality and this is one Personally I wont indulge this sorry attempt to deflect from tory woes by targeting labour when the tories are about to be roasted by a an ex Tory led by an ex Tory supported by ex tory voters in a seat they currently hold
... but I think the voting in Manchester could be more significant.
Nah. Don't think so.
[quote=Junkyard said]yes the Tories are about to loose a seat to a UKIP defector and what we should talk about is Labour
Labour divided by UKIP WTF are the tories then ? split asunder? Ravaged? Destroyed
you are a spin doctor for the tories I assume
FACE PALM
Some of your views are not even remotely supported by reality and this is one Personally I wont indulge this sorry attempt to deflect from tory woes by targeting labour
The Clacton case is very different with the incumbent MP switching sides. By all accounts he's seen as a good MP by the locals and perhaps people are voting for the man, not the party.
On Radio 4 yesterday they interviewed someone who said that they'd vote for Carswell at this by election but for the Tories at the general election.
And calm down dear, who are you, the thread police ? 🙂
UKIP are indeed making inroads into the completely disillusioned labour core vote. As the withington by election showed last year Not as significantly as they are into the Tories, but I think they 're going to wreak havoc in May. They may not even win a seat, but they'll swing constituencies all over the country. Not just the Tory South.
If you don't think labour needs to be worried, their constituency party in Rochester certainly does! This is a fairly [url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/07/labour-defeatism-rochester-byelection ]Scathing summary[/url] of the present utterly hopeless and clueless labour leadership, from the people on the ground in their own party.
They need to wake up! If they think UKIP is just a Tory problem, then they're in for a bloody rude awakening!
What worries me is the number of previous Labour supporters who wouldn't ever think of voting for the Tories but haven't realised that UKIP is far more Tory than the Tories.
Labour should be worried for sure, but the Tories should be bricking it big time.
They need to wake up! If they think UKIP is just a Tory problem...
UKIP are not just a serious problem for the Tories, they are also a serious problem for Britain's previous protest party, the LibDems.
You have to wonder where the collapsed lib dem vote will go though. I live in a Tory area that has voted lib dem. Labour a very distant third. Who do I vote for in my usual anyone one but a tory manner?..not ****ing UKip though. My brain would explode if the only way to stop them was a Tory vote.
It is very interesting and I don't believe anyone knows what is happening - Is the Lib Dem vote going to Labour, but the working class labour vote going to UKIP or is the LIb Dem vote going directly to UKIP. Clearly Tories voters are going to UKIP, but is this concentrated in relatively safe seats or an across the board swing, plus the Greens are coming up on the inside, are they only going to be a factor in the seats they focus on or they going to pick up 5% or 6% across the board thus effecting overall results in marginals.
I think labour complacently assume that the former lib dem vote will go to them by default. I wouldn't bank on that Ed.
The lib dems are now polling the same as the Green Party. About 7%. They're finished! And justifiably so IMHO. I just want to see Cleggy lose his seat. His own personal 'Portillo Moment' for us all to laugh at!
Surely lib dem voters wont go ukip will they or a people really so cynical/stupid?
I was in Scotland during the build-up to the referendum. Alastair Darling was interviewed on TV. He spoke of the referendum and of mid-term by-elections where protest votes are prominent. I felt he regarded protest votes as something to ignore, that they wouldn't happen in a real election.
This time there may be more, AD, then you'll have to take notice. SNP are the protest vote in Scotland, I expect Labour to lose MPs to them. It's sad that UKIP is the only alternative in England, now that the Libs have cooked their own goose.
By elections don't really count though as nothing major is at stake, hence it's ripe for protest votes.
Surely lib dem voters wont go ukip will they or a people really so cynical/stupid?
I'd like to think not (as a LD voter), I assumed only Tory voters were [s]racist[/s] daft enough to vote UKIP....
I'm not convinced UKIP will win in Clacton, not sure how many people will still vote Tory but won't admit it. I certainly doubt that they could hold it in next years election.
UKIP will take votes off Labour and the Tories, can't see any former Lib-Dems voting for them. This will certainly skew the results in a lot of constituencies.
Worryingly, for the first time in my Euro-sceptic life, of all the party conferences this year I was most impressed by the Lib Dems. Don't understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about. And they seem to have a more sensible approach to tax and fairness than the other two parties.
Flame me now 😥
The Labour Party are assuming everyone is going to come to their senses and fall in line. They're assuming a certain rationality. The last time they did this in the North, up against a shrewd opposition (and UKIP are certainly that) the BNP won a load of the vote. They didn't go in saying 'send them back!' They campaigned on local issues. Where the Labour Party didn't campaign at all. Just assumed they'd win
If you're on minimum wage in a northern constituency, UKIP. Are proposing raising the threshold so you pay no tax. Are the Labour Party proposing this? They should be but they're not! They're clueless! And it's going to cost them!
Don't understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about. And they seem to have a more sensible approach to tax and fairness than the other two parties.
Yep, don't really see what all the fuss is about.
Being a Lib Dem supporter seems to be a lot like saying you quite liked Phil Collins / Genesis in the 80s......
UKIP. Are proposing raising the threshold so you pay no tax.
You mean they have actual polices other than reintroducing Slavery?
And you lot wonder why there was such a strong Yes vote in the just passed referendum? There was a heck of a lot of votes for Yes that were definitely not SNP in origin. Protest votes if you like but much broader than that. My wife - English and socialist - voted Yes..
Anyway, LibDems and their outcome? still liberal in outlook but it's not just the loans fiasco, I think it's the disgust at seeing the naked "jump into bed for power" lunge that they've made, Clegg is a nothing person now IMO, Cable, sadly, with limited credence, see also Alexander. Need Ashdown & Campbell to get some thought back.
Where would my vote go now? I guess a spoilt paper would be the obvious protest vote - however I suspect the Greens will see a strong uplift from dissatisfied / disillusioned LibDems..
Don't understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about.
What Promises would you saty the Lib dems have forced the Tories to abolish?
perhaps you can show them pledging no to do something and then doing it as clearly as this
“I pledge to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative”
People hate them more as they hoped for integrity and they got a capitulation that allowed the tories to deliver and them to not deliver
I see little to prise in that - I am sure clegg would not do it if he had the chance again,
I think that the problem some - Ernie - have with the LibDems is that it was a "pledge" not just a manifesto commitment and therefore non negotiable. I think that is a perfectly reasonable position, actually I think it is more than reasonable, it is very principled. The alternative view is that they were naive and therefore it shouldn't be held against them. I see both points of views but I would fall off the fence on the side of principle.
Yes, I think it is unlikely your stereotypical LibDem voter would go to UKIP, but if you were working class but didn't like Labour at the last election you may have voted LibDem and you may vote UKIP now, so I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
the labour candidate has been parachuted in and so a lot of the local troops probably aren't hitting the doorstep
she also had a car crash TV moment on the local Sunday politics show re the CSE scandal and the continued presence of senior council figures in office
I think it will be a lot tighter than they (labour) want
"jump into bed for power"
This is a dreadful argument, what is the point of a political party if you don't seek power - there isn't one. If they had gone for confidence and supply everyone would have castigated them for having no cojones. They were between a rock and a hard place and they took the least worst option. They must be praying that the Tories are the party with the most seats or votes, because if they have to go into coalition with Labour they will lose their right wing and be completely destroyed at the following election
binners - MemberI just want to see Cleggy lose his seat. His own personal 'Portillo Moment' for us all to laugh at!
he's my MP, his voters were rich when they elected him, they're rich now, he's got no worries about re-election.
Just voted. What purpose do the party activists sat outside the voting hall serve? The Conservative lady, when I asked if she needed to see my voting card ,said "well you don't have to but I would like to see it" then recorded my voter number and told the limp dem activist as well.
Turn out figures?
can i just say that Heywood is not in Manchester. Thank you
having got that out of the way. UKIP are scary as they don't actually have any policies on anything. but this seems to actually be an asset for them. People on the left and right seem to be able to project onto this blank canvas what they would like the party to stand for and then vote for that imagined position.
i think they will come second in a lot of safe seats next year but not get many MPs
I'm rather surprised to find myself a voter in Heywood & Middleton - pretty sure at the last General Election I was voting for the Rochdale candidate.
*checks CD collection. Finds Genesis and Phil Collins*
😳
Foot flaps - they're being a lot cleverer than people are giving them credit for. Middleton is only down the road from me, and UKIP have been out on doorsteps in force! They're all over the town centre. And where are labour? Islington. They'll probably win comfortably. Do they deserve too? Well....
All the major parties are losing out here and they should be worried. As with Salmond they have no strategy for dealing with people who essentially spout BS but can align themselves with a protest vote. They are not programmed (!) to deal with this.
They're reaping the results of a far-too-cozy 'is it out turn now' political system stuffed full of career place-men. They're completely clueless about how to deal with the likes of Salmond and Farage - people who actually believe in something, and are also clever bastards. And are running rings around them. They can't deal with them at all. All they're equipped for is the next step on the political ladder, doing their corporate paymasters bidding.they've completely forgotten that every five years the plebs get to put a spanner in the works.
They've become so complacent, the 2 parties just proposing more of the same, in a slightly different shade of grey, they weren't banking on having any actual competition. And they hugely underestimated how utterly *ed off with them we all are.
The Tories have dealt with it by becoming UKIP. Labour? It's just sat there with it's collective thumb up it's arse! Utterly clueless. The political 'elite' are having a collective breakdown as they just don't know how to deal with any challenge to what they considered their birthright!
You'd like to think they might actually start to listen to people other than corporate lobbyists, bankers and right wing think tanks.
Whereas all it's done is painfully expose the fact that they offer a choice between a slimy PR man and a clueless muppet. Who ultimately represent exactly the same vested interests, just wearing different coloured ties
*s!!!
[quote=binners said]
The Tories have dealt with it by becoming UKIP.
Ah, that explains the legalisation of same sex marriage.
Wondered why they'd done that 🙂
What? They recognised we're actually in the 21st century, not the 19th? And we're supposed to applaud that are we? The fact that that's held up as some beacon of groundbreaking triumph for liberal democracy just shows how removed from most peoples day to day reality they are
I only seem to go to gay civil partnerships/weddings nowadays. Heterosexual weddings are just, like, sooooooo 20th century 😉
It doesn't really matter who is in power. They all face the same challenge and all are ill equipped to be able to deal with it. Protest voters from the likes of UKIP won't change anything.
Wowzers! wakey wakey, big business dictate policy no matter which party gets voted in, sigh.
Good to see posters have noticed the rise of the Greens in the polls. It's just a shame the media haven't (despite them actually having an MP, unlike UKIP!). I think they're going to threaten both the Lib Dems and Labour - i know plenty of lefties who are going Green next election, myself included.
I wouldn't say it won't change anything THM. It's dragging everything to the right into loony tunes territory
captjohn. - the greens get **** all media coverage, unlike bloody UKIP, because the right wing press hate them. They're presently out-polling the lib dems. There's hope yet!
I'm a disillusioned lefty who just can't bring myself to vote labour any more. Made my mind up some time ago I'll be voting green next time. I know plenty of other guardian reading pinko's like me thinking the same
Would love to vote green, but their stance on nuclear, medical research is too much
It seems that most of our political narrative is framed by the rightwing press, and they are obsessed with Europe , hence UKIP as everyones preferred protest vote, more so now that the lib dems have been tainted by actual power
I think this point of under representation of the Greens compared to UKIP in the media is misguided. UKIP have won a national election, the Greens' best performance is fourth - UKIP have to date been a much more significant national movement in voter numbers - the Greens have focused their resources much more locally.
UKIP were getting the coverage long before you could say that [ they won an election] or they had national support.
It has been disproportionate and I also think the reason is our press [ especially written] is both right wing and anti european.
14 appearance on QT for farage which is the highest figure for any politician - is he really that important?
In the run up to European elections this year Labour ignored UKIP and just called them loonies. This was the wrong thing to do and disillusioned voters in Labour heartlands voted for UKIP.
However to Tackle UKIP in these areas Labour just needs to carry on with this new simple message.
[b]UKIP: More Tory than the Tories[/b]
The Greens replaced a leader that every one knew and listened to, with one that they don't. She's on Radio4 nearly as often as Farage… but you forget her as soon as she finishes talking.
All this talk of vote swapping… the truth is lots of people who voted LibDem won't vote at all next year, and lots of UKIP voters haven't voted in the past.
They were founded in 1993, in 1999 they came fourth in the Euro election just head of the Greens, in 2004 they came third with more than twice the Green vote, in 2009 they came second with just over twice the Green vote and this year, they were first with four times the green vote.
anagallis_arvensis - MemberSurely lib dem voters wont go ukip will they or a people really so cynical/stupid?
An article from 18 months ago :
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-whos-voting-for-ukip/12934
[img] 
[/img]
They're completely clueless about how to deal with the likes of Salmond and Farage - people who actually believe in something, and are also clever bastards.
i cant let this go. what does ukip believe in? someone please sum up what they stand for beyond populism.
mefty its cherry picking to use Euro elections as their "success"
How about general elections ?
2001 1.5 % 390,563
2006 2.2 % 605,973
2010 3.1% 919,471
Its a rich irony that they can only get votes to the one place they dont want to be ...always makes me chuckle - almost like we are taking the piss.
i cant let this go. what does ukip believe in? someone please sum up what they stand for beyond populism.
"UKIP is a patriotic party that promotes independence: from the EU, and from government interference. We believe in free trade, lower taxes, personal freedom and responsibility."
If recently deceased Labour MP for Middleton Jim Dobbin had been a UKIP or Tory candidate he would have been rightly flamed on here for his religious convictions that motivated his views and voting in parliament on same sex marriage,same sex adoption and Section 28.I find it hard to believe that Labour has such dinosaurs in it's ranks.
what does ukip believe in?
That's a tricky one. While no one quite knows what UKIP believes in we do know what they don't believe in ........ their own manifesto apparently.
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25879302 ]Nigel Farage: 2010 UKIP manifesto was 'drivel'[/url]
So to sum up : UKIP [i]believes[/i] that their own manifesto was drivel. And that the UK should leave the EU, probably, because now they really quite like the transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) being negotiated between the EU and the US, so who knows.
mefty its cherry picking to use Euro elections as their "success"
It showed their development over time, you were implying they hadn't been much of a factor, the general election results are not as pronounced but again they beat the greens in terms of number of votes in each of those elections by at least a factor of two.
😆not as pronounced
Newspeak phrase of the week to describe having no MP's and barely increasing their vote. However you wish to spin it nationally they are poor, very poor.
Thanks for that.
But we are looking at a relative comparison, not absolutes, because the suggestion was that the Greens do not get "fair" media coverage compared to UKIP. The Greens have never been a significant factor in any National Election whereas UKIP have and in the elections where UKIP don't perform well they still consistently out poll the Greens.
The Greens have never been a significant factor in any National Election whereas UKIP have
In the 2009 United Kingdom local elections the Greens ended up with more than twice as many councilors as UKIP.
In the 2008 United Kingdom local elections the Greens ended up with five times as many councilors as UKIP.
But they weren't a significant factor nationally (top 3) when you look at total seats compared to the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour, neither were UKIP. Although, and I must admit this surprised me, UKIP seem to have more Councillors than the Greens at the present by 470 to 170 - neither is significant when the Tories have more than 8,000, Labour have 7,000 and the Lib Dems have 2,000.
UKIP seem to have more Councillors than the Greens at the present
But there was a time not long ago when they had more councilors than UKIP. The Greens have never received the same sort of media attention as UKIP have, even when they had more councilors than UKIP.
I must admit this surprised me
What surprised you - that the Greens got five times more councilors than UKIP in the 2008 local elections ? Of course it did, it surprised me.
With the media news blackout of the Green Party I wouldn't be surprised if some people were surprised to discover that the Greens have an MP and control a large local council, unlike UKIP.
I don't dispute that - my point has always been the Greens have never had a nationwide break through, whereas UKIP certainly have in the Euro elections (and for clarity, only those elections). The break through is what causes the coverage.
Obviously not - but you made me smile - Caroline Lucas is on Question Time pretty often, though significantly less than Farage, so it is hardly a blackout.
So Labour has increased its percentage of the vote in the Heywood and Middleton by election, with the Tory and Lib Dem vote collapsing.
This is a dreadful argument, what is the point of a political party if you don't seek power - there isn't one.
the point of a political party is to accomplish things. being in government is a tool for that, it's not the end in itself - Lib Dems forgot this simple point.
Caroline Lucas is on Question Time pretty often, though significantly less than Farage, so it is hardly a blackout.
BBC Question Time is hardly typical of the wider media**. If you are going to argue that the Green Party gets significant coverage in the media then I think I'll leave it there.
You have already admitted that you were surprised to discover that until recently the Green Party had considerably more councilors than UKIP. The media clearly ignores Green Party related news and focuses heavily on all UKIP related news. If you want to pretend otherwise then I'm not going waste my time arguing as it seems a bit pointless.
**BBC Question Time has a deliberate policy of giving representation to smaller parties, Nigel Farage regularly appears on QT more than any other politician, including those from the 3 main parties.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/06/why-nigel-farage-question-time-so-often
[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11153129/Heywood-and-Middleton-by-election-Labour-holds-off-Ukip-surge-by-just-617-votes.html ]Anyone still think labour doesn't need to worry about UKIP? [/url]
Heywood and Middleton is hardly a good example of why Labour should be worried about UKIP Binners, other than that former Tory and LibDem voters might unite against them.
In Heywood and Middleton Labour very slightly increased their share of the vote compared to 4 years ago.
In contrast the Tory vote collapsed to less than half of what it was 4 years ago.
And the LibDems, well the LibDems got less than a quarter of the votes they got 4 years ago.
The Tories and the LibDems should be very worried about the rise of UKIP.
Labour did less well in Clacton last night but that isn't their territory and the Tories and LibDems did considerably worse. The LibDems got 1.3% ffs.
Going by last night's results UKIP damages the Tories and LibDems far more than it damages Labour.
Tiny turnout but a surprise for Labour, Liz McInnes who won sounds like an angry fish wife 😕
I would vote Green as well but a few of their policies just dont work for me.
JY I started this thread as thought a piece of research from the Fabian Society (a left wing thinnk tank ) was interesting, as yes because it's been saying what I've been saying for 18 months. All the political parties need to take UKIP seriously. I see repeated above that "more of the same" will be good enough to defeat UKIP. I do not agree. UKIP ahev tapped into a major issue which the other parties are trying to sweep under the carpet or at a minimum defer.
The result last night in Heywood should prove the shock and awe that Labour need to get it's act together. They came within 617 votes of a stunning loss.
Still ignoring that in both results the Cons and Lib Dems got hammered
the Fabian Society (a left wing thinnk tank )
Really are they - Thanks for that 😉
The result last night in Heywood should prove the shock and awe that Labour need to get it's act together. They came within 617 votes of a stunning loss.
Unlike the tories who did lose - I assue,m that was not stunning
FWIW Labour increased their vote in the election - what happend to the Tory vote?
Your right here lets discuss labour and UKIP
But in the end, with a 36% turnout, Labour's Liz McInnes got 11,633 votes - 41% - with UKIP's John Bickley gaining 11,016 - 39%.
Conservative Iain Gartside came third with 3,496 votes - 12% - and Liberal Democrat Anthony Smith fourth with 1,457 - 5%. Abi Jackson of the Green Party got 870 votes - 3% of the total.
last election
Lab -40.1
Cons-27.2
lib dem -22.7
BNP -7
UKIP -2.6
I am not sure how you can look at all the other parties votes capitulating and labour remaining firm as a poor result for labour. I am not sure how you can ignore the tory loss to an ex tory led by an ext tory for a party funded by an ex tory - oh yes I can it is an entirely polemical point not reflected in reality
As per the facts and you analysis are not even within touching distance.
Not often me and thee agree on stuff Jambalaya, but you're absolutely bang on. I've also been saying it all along, that if labour think that UKIP are just a problem for the Tories (and back in Westminster thats clearly exactly what they're thinking) then they're in for a major wake up call! And last night should have provided it.
Middleton is the epitome of a 'labour stronghold'. You could stick a gerbil up for election, and if it was wearing labour colours, they'd get in. Its majority at the last election was 6,000. Last night it was 600. UKIP got 11,000 votes. They got 39% of the vote, to Labours 41%.
If the labour party don't view that as a course for concern then they're about to lose a lot of northern seats, because UKIP will chuck everything at the ones they deem winnable. And there are plenty of those with a lot slimmer labour majorities than Middleton.
And its not about left or right so much. Of all people Duncan Carswell just summed it up. He pointed out the bleeding obvious. People are sick to death of the cozy corporate governance we've now got, where the concerns of voters are never even considered, while corporate lobbyists get everything they ask for. That disillusionment isn't just a problem for the Tories.
Its going to be really interesting to see what happens in Rochester next month. UKIP will throw the kitchen sink at that one. So it could be another win. Or maybe if it splits the Tory vote to the extent that Daves nightmare of letting labour into previously safe Tory seats comes to pass
Labour are suffering a double whammy of the tabloid obsession with Europe immigration etc and Ed millibands charisma deficit.
The torries must be crapping it, will be chaos within the party right now I'd have thought, Carswell will have the Torry elite bricking it over who they'll lose next and how bonkers rightwing they'll have to get, meanwhile the backbenchers will be weighing up what a ukip jump would mean in their own constituencies.
Its a real worry for labour but a crisis for the Tories,
However the possibility of a ukip/ con coalition and a disastrous exit from the EU looms large, for us and the EU and that would spell a m CH worse recession than the 2008 crash caused.
The Tories and the LibDems should be very worried about the rise of UKIP.
@ernie (and JY) The Tories (and Lib Dem probably) are worried about UKIP, my point is that Labour should be too.
JY I think the Tories expected to lose Clacton, the vote stayed with the sitting MP and he had a 10,000 seat majority retaining his vote from the general election. Personally I was expecting to see Labour hold Heyward with a comfortable majority (5,000 or 10%), they nearly lost it. I appreciate your analysis but its my view the Labour party will be taking UKIP a lot more seriously, that's a good thing.
Middleton is the epitome of a 'labour stronghold'.
Whihc will be why they got the same % of the vote as last time.
Its a by election where folk typically do a protest vote [ the other parties all shifted to UKIP] and they still held it
There is really no need for this hysteria - though complacency is unwise.
Kimbers... that truly is the ultimate nightmare scenario. It just doesn't bear thinking about.
*shudders*
@kimbers it's pretty clear UKIP would enter a coalition with the Tories on the basis there would be an in-out referendum on the EU. So I don't see such a big parliamentary impact unless as Labour are desperately wishing for UKIP votes elect Labour MPs. It's going to be a very interesting few months before the general election.
Binners is right about the protest vote against th e Westminster posh boys and their corporate puppet masters
The crazy thing is that son of a millionaire,ex hedge fund trader, public school educated, expenses fraudster Farige has been able to pass himself off as a working mans alternative coz he's never photo opped without a pint and a fag
@ jam so UKIP take an MP and a seat /votes from the Tories and none of these from labour in Middleton and labour need to take them seriously. the vote changed because of what UKIP did to other parties not labour -that is what the stats say.
What do the Tories need to do then in your analysis if the events?
More of the same but with greater intensity. The Tories have promised a referendum on the EU if they win a majority (key part that last bit). They will persist with message/scare tactic that a vote for UKIP will let Labour in.
My point remains that the Clacton result was inevitable (that's why he resigned the seat, he had no need to do that), the new information here was how much of a dent UKIP could make in the Labour vote.
the vote changed because of what UKIP did to other parties not labour -that is what the stats say.
Hmm, hardly that simple, a lump of the Labour vote this time is returned limp dems, matched by core labour flight to ukip. What we have undoubtedly also seen, and are likely to see in the next election is tactical voting. A Tory voter in a safe labour seat would be mad to vote conservative rather than ukip this time round. Equally a Tory voter in a swing seat would be crazy to vote ukip.
PS. I reiterate my belief that carswell will take the ukip lead into the election. Last nights speech said a lot about the future direction of ukip, I think there will be a night of the long knives very soon, and a behind the scenes deal with the tories
Here's an interesting angle on it: [url= http://www.cityam.com/1412904231/ukip-must-show-it-can-scale-uber-editor-s-letter ]CityAM[/url]
the new information here was how much of a dent UKIP could make in the Labour vote.
THE LABOUR PARTY VOTE INCREASED
There is no dent. Your view, the facts and reality are at odds with each other once more.
Its pointless discussing with you when you say stuff that is factually incorrect and then just repeat it.
Certainly interesting times on the political scene. I reckon the poor old Lib Dems are finished and UKIP will become the third party after the next election. The two Eds have no chance, so the big question now, is whether the next Government will be Tory or a Tory/UKIP coalition?
I hope Junky is finishing off his humble pie after his post yesterday! 😳
Thinking back to when UKIP were headed up by that perma-tanned chat show bloke (can't remember the idiot's name now), have they changed under Farridge or do we think it's just surface embellishments?