[Closed] UK recession deepens

so you agree that the underlying cause of this recession is bad weather and an extra days bank holiday.

so you agree that the underlying cause of this recession is bad weather and an extra days bank holiday.

Junkyard - Member
hold on the mightt=y charriot of free enterprise is just warming up for the onslaught of jobs from the "wealth creators and all the joys it will bestow on us..i think i can hear it coming right now.

Interesting, that you do at least have your ears open JY! 😉 Among the gloom, one of the few beacons of light is the level of private sector fixed investment which is growing at 3% for past 18 months. But this is not sufficient to offset weakness in other areas. So we had an economic mirage based on rising consumption, falling saving and increased leverage at the sovereign, corporate, bank and household levels resulting in an unbalanced economy skewed toward the public sector and financial services (neatly joined together by Gordon Brown).

So now we have the reverse: falling consumption, reduced confidence, rising savings, declining leverage and a rebalance away from public sector and financial services ALL in a climate of recession and extreme levels of uncertainty among our major trading partners. [b]And the crux - neither economists nor politicians have a policy mix that can address these headwinds.[/b]. That will come with hindsight, when all the books are written. Tory and Labour plans are broadly the same ie, aggressive monetary easing, broadly neutral fiscal policy, little bit of pump priming.

Leaving the similarities aside: the Tories are overly reliant on aggressive monetary policy especially since the transmission mechanism (banks) is still in intensive care (and Osborne doesn't seem to understand basic ISLM A level analysis). They are correct but massively over-optimistic about private sector/public sector rebalancing since the private sector is still de-leveraging and plagued by uncertainty/low confidence. So the balancing was never going to happen in equal measures.

So today leaving aside Miliband's BS about (too far, too fast - at least Balls has not dropped that argument), what are the alternatives? Balls and Milliband both emphasised only one idea today - bankers bonus (withdrawal) to fund VAT reduction (injection) ie, a broadly neutral fiscal mix. Tax an unpopular segment of the economy (political brownie points) and to fund cuts to boost wider consumption. And the net effect? Plus capital investment projects as with the Tories and Lib Dems (see below). In other words, we don't know either.

Lord Oakshott for the Lib Dems - VAT cut (without Labour's funding solution) and capital investment in line with everyone else. Thanks for that! At least a succinct, we dont know either.

The IMF: a few months ago supporting the UK's policy mix. Now: More QE, more credit, more public investment (relatively high multiplier) and the only thing where they make a stand that is not rhetoric (Labour please note) is "The planned (note the future tense, here!) pace of structural fiscal tightening will need to slow if the recovery fails to take off even after additional monetary stimulus and strong credit easing measures. The UK has the fiscal space to make such adjustments."

So broadly speaking none of the key decision makers - the politicians, the central banks, the institutions that control the bailouts, the mainstream economist - have the answer to creating magical growth in the context of massive, sustained and simultaneous deleveraging by countries, corporates, banks and households and the collapse of the euro project's foundations.

Makes you feel great....!

our main overseas markets are crippled the eurozone is bankrupt.. banks have stopped lending as they lent all thier money then the govts to people who could nt would nt pay it back.. the greeks irish for starters
then theres the public sector STILL spending money like water.. when i 'm skint i dont go out and buy new vans or employ staff at more than the original staff as demand is high for key tradesmen??
why do we pay pensions to 49 years old who then go and get jobs or start up elsewhere or even go back to work for thier original employers who are paying the pension ..
50% of the country doesnt know what a recession looks like.. and its having NO effect on them.. as a tory voter i ll say letting the rich off was a BIG mistake they need to pay more ... a lot more even the wealthy pensioners..

So basically Economics is bobins as it wont help us when we are in the shit

Any chance you could do a shorter post nex time. I dont understand why some posters do long winded posts 😉
😳

I do agree that typically monetairst policies [ of course I dont like them but they have their plcae] alone will not do anything

Like you say Gideon aint bright and his view [ thankfully unlike ours eh] is goverened by politics/philosophy rather thna facts or reality.

Dog ate hwk excuse ...blame Europe as it ticks so many boxes for Tories.

Economics isn't bobbins necessarily 😉 but misundertanding its basic principles on the way up (GB) and on the way down (CMD/GO) isn't a great idea. Plus sidelining one whole avenue of economic thinking hasn;t helped matters *. Again, first year economics A level - monetary and fiscal policies tend to work better in harmony with the balance dependent on current conditions!

Europe certainly doesn't help either - so I will cut the Tories slack there - but the net exports data was actually good news. For the first time since 1998, exports to non-Eu countries > EU countries and trade deficit fell. Perhaps that's why there were some perky exporters on the radio this morning?

* especially the bit about creditors having to share some of the pain!

so you agree that the underlying cause of this recession is bad weather and an extra days bank holiday.

Was that aimed at me? Who on earth is saying that?

Was that aimed at me?

It seemed clear to me that it was aimed at loum

So basically Economics is bobins as it wont help us when we are in the shit

Will Hutton used the quote "ask 3 economists for a prediction, and you'll get 4 different opinions" 😀

Businesses need to fit the right people to the right jobs when recruiting.

The banks need to lend to businesses.

Businesses need to export to the BRICS and ignore Europe.

The government needs to facilitate all this any way it can by making hiring and firing easier.

Other than that,

[img] [/img]

Dudes.

* especially the bit about creditors having to share some of the pain

I get your wider point that many were very foolish over the loans that they took out [ i was offered a mortgage that was x 7 my income at the time [ [ex]wife was pregnant and had a salary but was not going back to work and no one asked but I had the sense to realise this was unaffordable but really WTF were they thinking off offering this? ] but as i noted above I can forgive them because they are not finacial experts..the banks really should have know better

The government needs to facilitate all this any way it can by making hiring and firing easier.

Nice to see the kneejerk Tory [s]wet dream [/s] policy there Woppit

If we could only sack everyone on the spot tomorrow, then take some of them back on, on half the pay, with no pensions, holidays or sick pay, then everything would be just fine 😉

Nice to see the kneejerk Labour wet dream policy there etc etc etc.

We need to make good stuff and sell it.

You got any better ideas?

JY - I wasnt clear. I was talking about creditors at the sovereign level and referring back to JMK's conclusion that ultimately creditors have to bear some of the pain. A difficult message for sure but one that Euro-land creditors will ultimately have to remember.

Actually Binners, you reminded me, Balls did mention NI breaks for SMEs, I think.

You got any better ideas?

It is a simplist debating [ arguing really] tactic to say nothing and just attack others...why not share your insights/solutions?

Sorry THM and yes you are correct- good ish bbc link in JMK the other day

Mr Woppit - Member

Nice to see the kneejerk Labour wet dream policy there etc etc etc.

TopTip : Your retort would have worked better if you had copied and pasted this alleged "kneejerk Labour wet dream policy".

Simply paraphrasing someone in a completely pointless and meaningless way just makes you stupid and devoid of your own ideas 💡

I think we're all in agreement with what we need to be doing to get out of the hole Mr W, but the Tories default position is, for example, that mass unemployment is beneficial to drive down labour costs/living standards for the plebs, and there is no option to punishing austerity. Public sector investment to promote growth is the route of all evil. Give money to the banks, they'll do the rest....

They (and so, us) are straightjacketed by their ridiculous discredited ideology that refuses to let them even think of doing anything different to what has failed so spectacularly, and repeatedly

Like they said themselves, proudly: There is no plan B.

Yeah... we can see that. Maybe now might be a good time to try one

To state so publicly and oftern taht there is no Plan B was a mistake tbh. Now, when it appear too , by any objective measure, not be workign , they would rather screw us all than loose face.
To be fair we would go ape if he did change his plan and drive him from office so , unless he wishes to commit political hari-kari, he has no choice..sometimes democracy sucks and this is one of them.

Simply paraphrasing someone in a completely pointless and meaningless way just makes you stupid

Interesting theory. Bit like Pavlov's Dog, you mean? (Self-inflicted, obviously...).

political [s]hari[/s] hara-kari

FTFY

Despite claiming to be a "friend of business", the Tories and Osborne are acting like every other corporatist/centrist political numpties who think the problem can be solved by manipulating the money supply. "Priming the pump" and "Investing in industry" and other such nonsenses whilst chucking money at banks who just sit on it to improve their own finances. They should not be bailed by the taxpayer, but left to swim or sink on their own talent, or lack of it.

It's a supply-side solution, but don't expect the politicians to be doing any enabling any time soon.

you will have a busy life correcting my mispellings... I cant decide if you are being smug or not, then i remembered I dont care

[b]O!! M!!! G!!!![/b] I agree with Woppit 😯

It's the Olympics innit?

Construction is a big chunk of UK PLC

Big chunk of construction industry working on projects all due to be delivered Spring-Summer in time for sports day. They're all done now so there's bound to be a blip of some sort or another.

I cant decide if you are being smug or not, then i remembered I dont care

Funny how you keep going on about it, then. Poor little bunny.

They should not be bailed by the taxpayer, but left to swim or sink on their own talent, or lack of it.

So how do we run our economy with a load of failed banks?

Building societies, plus use the banks which haven't failed.

Funny how you keep going on about it, then. Poor little bunny.

and 🙄
Was there any ned or point? that rhetorical BTW, if you can resist

So how do we run our economy with a load of failed banks?

And they could be doing a worse job than the present tax-payer guaranteed, self-interested, morally bankrupt, utterly corrupt, parasitic, socially worthless set up, how exactly....?

So we've had the excuse of the Jubilee extra bank holidays AND the bonus working day 29th February - will Osbourne's next excuse be - "Well due to the Olympics, Paralympics and the other lot of Lympics, London and the City were closed, and everyone will now be taxed at 50%"

Why won't govt's introduce the Robin Hood tax on banks as they got us in this mess? I know it's a very simplistic view but with all the internal transaction they make with our money they oughtta pay more in the way of tax.

One of the strongest banks that hadn't failed is currently lacking a CEO care of the interference of the chattering Islington classes - and Building Societies don't have a better record on lending to businesses than the banks do, so there's nothing to be gained there.

well that removed the doubt and i mentioned it once.

You've a short memory, ducks. Apparently I'm condescending, patronising and a whole raft of other misdemeanours in all my posts, according to you.

Just doing my best for you from my lofty perch.

The Coop is a fine example of a bunch of professional earners who know what they're doing.

Just bought a shed load of Lloyd's Bank properties at knock-down prices...

Ethical, too.

And they could be doing a worse job than the present tax-payer guaranteed, self-interested, morally bankrupt, utterly corrupt, parasitic, socially worthless set up, how exactly....?

Well failed banks tend to lend even less money than ones with money.

If a bank were to fail, surely all the money that it owes would just disappear, wouldn't it? If most of the big banks failed, would that not result in total economic collapse?

Not sure that your local building society would hav ethe funds to finance economic recovery, tbh.

[b]UK recession deepens[/b]

and thats before we get the final bill in from the police and army for the g4s failures,the olympics fiasco, the cost of the jubilee celebrations, the cost of the inquiry into dodgy newspaper practices, that will say they did ok in a tough world, and wars in various places, along with large redundancy payments to the armed forces.

We will be broker than a house mouse.
and thats before we join in with a war against Syria.

I forgot those comments [ if i made them - have you go it bookmarked? * ] see how much thought i give you 😉

Still as only one of us remembers it you have surely shown it did not get under your skin or grate with you ...well done, excellent WIN Sir.

Jesus grudges on the internet with strangers... excellent.

* please dont actually answer PLEASE shall we just let it get back OT ?

How many visitors are coming for the Olympics? They will probably spend some money, won't they?

* please dont actually answer PLEASE shall we just let it get back OT ?

You first.

Don't be daft! They'll all be planning to claim political asylum and become a subsequent drain on the state! 😉

How many visitors are coming for the Olympics? They will probably spend some money, won't they?

and how many people will have their working and shopping life disrupted for a sports games and possibly be fined for driving on a road that has already been paid for, but is now designated for the olympic family.

Umm.

I don't know. But I bet the net effect of incoming money is greater than the effect of disruption.