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If you look at past accuracy of opinion polls you will note that they are invariably correct.
In terms of their accuracy when it comes to the outcome of the next election, they are fairly accurate at short range yes but not 4.5 years out.
For example 4.5years before the most recent election, which was early 2020, polls were showing that the tories were well ahead of labour. But as you know, when it came to the election, that could hardly have been more wrong.
Aside from this isnt really true. They have done some unpopular stuff but its tinkering round the edges and not really addressing the core issues.
I suppose that depends what you consider to be the "core issues" doesn't it.
I'm perfectly happy with what they've done so far.
The "tough" decisions that are being made, are the same "tough" decisions that have been made since 2008 (and before to a slightly lesser extent). So why would anyone expect a miracle from the same continuation of tough decisions that have demonstrably and repeatedly failed,
I suppose that depends what you consider to be the “core issues” doesn’t it.
Lets start with social care (which then feeds in healthcare) and housing.
What they have done is a few minor tweaks but nothing which would substantially undo the damage caused by the tories.
Lets start with social care (which then feeds in healthcare) and housing.
What they have done is a few minor tweaks but nothing which would substantially undo the damage caused by the tories.
Looking at the polls, the cost of living was by far the most important issue to labour voters, so falling inflation will go down well. 'Economy in general' was also of high importance so again the improved economic forecasts will go down well.
I'd expect to see improvement across a range of health related measures within five years. Six months is far too soon to be judging progress on that sort of thing imo.
In terms of their accuracy when it comes to the outcome of the next election, they are fairly accurate at short range yes but not 4.5 years out.
Er, they all ask the same question "how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?", none ask "how will you you be voting in 4.5 years time?"
Opinion polls give a fairly accurate measure of public opinion right now, and right now Labour are very deeply unpopular. Which is fine if you think they can suddenly become popular just before the next general election.
However the problem for Labour seems to be getting worse, not better..... third placed in poll behind the Tories and Reform? And governing parties tend to lose their popularity as time passes, not increase it. So good luck with that one, you're gonna need it.
Because they have been spoon fed lies for years......
......I’m happy with the lack of popularity, the crunch will come in another 4 years, if people haven’t seen the fruits of the unpopular policies by then
Well you can't have it both ways. If Labour's unpopularity is, as according to you, down to the electorate being "spoon fed" lies what will be different in 4 years time? Surely they will still be spoon fed lies or are you suggesting that whoever is doing the spoon feeding will suddenly and miraculously stop?
That's the problem in dismissing the electorate as stupid and gullible, it makes arguing that you will be able to convince them that you are right rather difficult.
And it's strange how the views of the electorate don't seem to matter to Centrists when they are in control of the situation and yet the views of the electorate seem to be absolutely sacrosanct to them when the Left suggests a radical alternative policy to the failed orthodoxy . Funny dat.
Er, they all ask the same question “how would you vote if there was a general election tomorrow?”, none ask “how will you you be voting in 4.5 years time?”
Opinion polls give a fairly accurate measure of public opinion right now, and right now Labour are very deeply unpopular. Which is fine if you think they can suddenly become popular just before the next general election.
The point is that today's polls tell us nothing about how people will vote at the next election, which is what matters.
Four and a half years is not "sudden", it's more than enough time for things to change. Just look at the polls for the last election which went from a Tory landslide to a labour landslide in the same time period.
Looking at the polls, the cost of living was by far the most important issue to labour voters, so falling inflation will go down well.
And thats due to labour policies how exactly? It also, of course, fails to account for the fact falling inflation just means prices are increasing less steeply. Lucky they didnt do a policy which will limit payrises eh?
Six months is far too soon to be judging progress on that sort of thing imo.
I do find it fascinating how the starmerites trot this out like a mantra whilst commenting how those less enlightened are easily led.
Six months is the perfect time to be judging progress because thats when there needs to have been a clear plan defined to run over the next four years to start, hopefully, giving results in advance of an election. If we take the adult social care reform review it should be obvious the problems there.
tinkering round the edges
Whilst, elephant in the room time...
The single biggest, easiest, immediate boost to the UK would be to rejoin the EU single market and customs union.
But, apparently, all talk of this is verboten.
Very odd.
it’s more than enough time for things to change.
Absolutely it is, I would not dispute that for a moment. So when is Starmer going to get on with it?
Who believes that austerity is going to deliver what voters want..... where's the evidence? Or are Labour going to go on a spending spree 6 months before the next general election?
Edit : Btw Tony Blair's approval ratings were exceptionally good in his first 4 years as PM, and yet despite that Labour still managed to lose almost 3 million votes in the 2001 general election. To expect Starmer to have crap approval ratings and yet Labour not to lose a significant amount of votes is asking for the moon on a stick.
what will be different in 4 years time?
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right. And yes a significant proportion of voters are stupid and gullible otherwise how do you explain 14 years of terrible Tory rule and the rise of Reform. Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment are hankering back to those good old days already. I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient. Just wishing the electorate were more intelligent and thoughtful wont make it so, and pandering to their prejudices doesn't solve the severe issues we face either.
I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient.
Yes all these centrists lapping up right wing propaganda to dismiss and dehumanise large swaths of the population, it must be very easy to not care about the victims of austerity and make excuses for poverty as being necessary tough choices when you consider you fellow man as lesser humans.
Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment are hankering back to those good old days already.
Really ? Have you got any evidence to back up that rather astonishing claim? Many of those not happy with Labour at the moment actually voted Labour six months ago, all the evidence suggests that they wanted change. What "good old days" do you think they are hankering for?
I think gullible and stupid is being rather lenient.
As a rule I tend to avoid lobbing personal insults at those with different political opinions to mine but since we appear to be going down that road...... I reckon that Centrists betray a spectacular lack of intellectual capability when their entire political argument appears to be based on the premise that the people which they purport to care about are stupid, racist, gullible, etc
It's pretty daft (I am being lenient) and I would say arrogant too only I know that they don't actually believe that nonsense and that they only say it because they can't think of any other explanation for a stuff which they don't really understand. It's simple, lazy, and it doesn't require too much thinking.
High court had ruled government was not meeting legal duty to clean up Costa Beck near Pickering
Reed’s decision to continue the legal action flew in the face of Labour’s stated commitment to clean up rivers, according to Penny Gane, of NGO Fish Legal.
“This new government came into power promising that cleaning up our rivers, lakes and seas was a top priority,” said Gane. “The fact that it is fighting our angler members in court to avoid doing the hard work necessary to bring about any improvements in the health of Britain’s rivers flies in the face of that commitment.
“This case and its results will expose the true colours of this new administration and help show whether their promises are backed by any real intention to change the status quo. We see no evidence so far that they want to properly regulate industries that chronically pollute our waterways.”
So why were Labour promising "miracles" to voters before the general election but now, six months later, fighting in the courts against being forced to comply with their legal obligations.
The appeal was begun by the previous Conservative administration, after Pickering Fishery Association, a fishing club in North Yorkshire, won a landmark legal case against the government and the Environment Agency.
So just carrying on with Tory government policy then, after criticising them. Well I guess that's what you do when you believe that voters are largely stupid and gullible.
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right.
Hopefully eh. The problem is will anyone notice. If hospitals are performing a bit better who notices who has not been in hospital for a while as the experience will still be crap. How are people going to feel better off, what have Labour done/are planning is going to cause that and council services much like NHS - small improvements won't be felt.
Hopefully eh. The problem is will anyone notice. If hospitals are performing a bit better who notices who has not been in hospital for a while as the experience will still be crap. How are people going to feel better off, what have Labour done/are planning is going to cause that and council services much like NHS – small improvements won’t be felt.
100%.
Another reminder for those still repeating the oligarchs propaganda "we can't afford it".
'We can't afford it's is nonsense. And no we don't need to go to corporations or other countries to get the pound.
But your chancellor is doomed to the monetarist framework that the pound is scarce. (Imagine not knowing every bit of sterling currency in existence came the BoE.)
Taxing wealth looks further away than ever but it really does need drawing in but they know high wealth drives assets which reinforces growth via finance, rather than productivity.
Reports are December was a downer in retail too. Can't see January being much better. Got to give them a few months here I suppose. Winter is bleak but it is their job to make things better.
I suspect ultimately interest rates will be cut (glad I fixed mine back in Feb) and they will get some growth from houses/mortgages and call it success.
BTW Are we generating our own energy yet? ? Or is GBenergy looking like another Labour dud?
The first tranche is more windfarms on more leased Crown Estate land (well, sea bed).
They needed private finance and then to start building... another vote-for-us-at-the-next-election-5-year-promise; they only appointed the board last week https://www.gov.uk/government/news/great-british-energys-start-up-board-appointed
I struggle to understand how GBenergy will work, the rhetoric sounds great publicly owned infrastructure, well paid jobs etc. But then the "private financing" just makes it look like its a reworked PFI scheme hidden behind political speak.
If it is done well with public interests at the heart of it, it could be excellent, but there is more than a whiff of just more corporate subsidies at the expense of public service.
Hopefully the NHS will be performing better, people will feel better off and council services will have turned a corner, that will help counter some of the lies and simple divisive solutions being pushed by the right.
On that - My annual pay rise offer was rescinded and revised downwards as a result of the increase in employers NI tax grab. My wife's school has opened a voluntary redundancy scheme as they wont be able to balance the books next year so have to shed staff. Again as a result of that last budget.
I imagine we are far from alone from feeling the impact of this last Budget. So feeling better off in a couple of years? Vanishingly unlikely if this last 6 months is anything to go by!
not even going to be discussed fir a year
No. The frustration is that it is going to be discussed in a search for consensus to support lasting reform, rather than seeing immediate action (of some unspecified form).
The trouble with soc care is because only 20% of people need it in intensive form and generally as they're shuffling off the stage, it's too easy to kick plans down the road when they come under political attack
My wife’s school has opened a voluntary redundancy scheme as they wont be able to balance the books next year so have to shed staff. Again as a result of that last budget.
Is that a state school? Because the employers NI increase is dwarfed by additional funding for schools, including funding specifically to offset the small tax rise.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/schools-to-be-fully-reimbursed-for-national-insurance-rise
https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/general/schools-to-be-funded-for-national-insurance-rise
I imagine we are far from alone from feeling the impact of this last Budget
Yes but there will be multiple budgets between now and the next election and I doubt (hope) they aren't stupid enough to do something like that in the budget running up to the election. It's generally the six months before the election that will drive voters. All the other changes become forgettable unless it's something monumental stupid like Brexit.
Yes but there will be multiple budgets between now and the next election and I doubt (hope) they aren’t stupid enough to do something like that in the budget running up to the election.
So you think they're going to pursue the tories old trick of buying off the electorate with tax giveaways and other stuff just before the election? You think that's ok? When it was the tories doing that there was universal outrage on here from the centrist/fake-lefty faction at the lack of sensible and grown up long term management of the economy. I thought Starmer and Labour were going to do things differently? Imposing austerity and then sugar-coating it with some token tax cuts just before an election is no different to what every tory govt has done in the past 40 years.
There are unlikely to be any tax cuts ahead. Recent tax increases are more about filling gaps of denial (see funding for special need provision in schools, and actually paying public sector staff their basic cost of living increase, things the last government pretended didn’t require funding) then they are about paving the way for tax cuts. Also, the big increases in public spending are mostly front loaded and aimed at the first few years of the parliament, not the pre-election years, because there is an urgency to so much if it. There’s no election cycle bribing planned there either, but it will take time for the positive effects of that spending to take effect… both in terms of that extra spending in the economy, and the arrest of decline and hopefully improvements in services.
Imagine being this flaccid.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4mwwn4w11o
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the plans - which formed part of a 2019 election promise by the Conservatives for 40 new hospitals by 2030 - were not affordable.
Labour - the party of inaction and fiscal incredulity.
Actually all modern parties are about taking stuff away.
Meanwhile:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uks-reeves-launches-bid-protect-005642329.html
UK's Reeves launches bid to protect car-loan providers in mis-selling case, FT reports
Reuters) - British finance minister Rachel Reeves launched a bid to protect car-loan providers from multibillion-pound payouts in a landmark mis-selling case, with the Treasury taking the unusual step of seeking permission to intervene in the Supreme Court, the Financial Times reported on Monday.
Grown ups / sensible people/ adults in the room etc.
Ghastly.
Unemployment is up in reports today to as is wage growth distorted by high earners of course.
Great news on wage growth. Despite all the scaremongering about how the budget would negatively impact wage growth, the reality so far is actually the complete opposite.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g372w32vjo
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said the plans – which formed part of a 2019 election promise by the Conservatives for 40 new hospitals by 2030 – were not affordable.
It's pretty obvious that was always fluff & bullshine from the Johnson team & wholly unaffordable & half baked.
Despite all the scaremongering about how the budget would negatively impact wage growth, the reality so far is actually the complete opposite.
The 2% NI rise hasn't been implemented yet, and most employers don't implement pay reviews until April. You might want to keep your powder dry before celebrating a tiny uptick in wages against a backdrop of universally negative indicators.
most employers don’t implement pay reviews until April.
Source? I've worked for multiple companies and had pay reviews at various points throughout the year. Several people on here have claimed their employers have already made decisions. We will know more in due course, but these early signs are very positive.
a backdrop of universally negative indicators.
Wages and GDP up. Unemployment slightly up. Looks more positive than negative to me. No idea where you're getting the idea that it's universally negative.
GDP up
0.1% in December. Is that a joke? A 0.1% rise is in anyone's books a very sub-par GDP performance (if you assume GDP growth is a good thing, which is very debatable).
It's a rounding error.
Low bars for Labour all the time.
At best 1 month of flatlining.
Looks more positive than negative to me. No idea where you’re getting the idea that it’s universally negative.
Best to take a trend over a period.
Labour are doing limited fiscal flows which means it can't really translate to growth. It just technically can't. Which is why we've flatlined for a long time now. Then if the Wicked Witch makes cuts to benefits that will simply drain more money out of the economy and it will shrink.
(They will deregulate and sit and wait for interest rates to come down, houses to shift and then call that growth.)
They are doing the exact opposite of what needs to be done.
The 2% NI rise hasn’t been implemented yet, and most employers don’t implement pay reviews until April. You might want to keep your powder dry before celebrating a tiny uptick in wages against a backdrop of universally negative indicators.
This.
The wage increase is as usual distorted by higher earners.
I think if you looked at UK GDP growth post-2007 then 0.1% per month would be very close to par, so I don't know where "very sub par" comes from.
It's early days yet, but so far no sign whatsoever of any of these economic problems the right wing have been scaremongering about.
Don't ask for 'sources' from certain posters. You'll never get any.
The wage increase is as usual distorted by higher earners.
If you’re tracking PAYE median pay, which is far more resilient to being skewed by higher paid outliers, you’re looking at 7% for October '24. Suggests to me that you’re just making a statement based on what has happened in recent years, rather than looking at the data since the government changed.
Oh, an interesting note… 15.4% rise in median pay in health and social work sector… against a background of very low rises for many others in the public sector. I think that reflects where the money is being targeted. It probably means hard times for many civil servants ahead, expect that to be a future point of conflict, especially as private sector pay increases more than the public sector as a whole.
ONS for my source.
I don’t think this predicts good news for ‘25 though, I think we’re in for another year of stagnant wages and new inflationary pressures, depending on what happens in the USA and Germany especially.
7% feels high, I am not sure I know anyone who has received anything like that in the past year, if it is true then that would be good, I just hope I get to feel it sometime. I have had between 1.5 to 2.5 a year rises in the past 5 years, which while obviously way way behind inflation, especially real inflation, but I know people who have had less or zero.
3.5% does seem realistic, would the rise in health and social care wages skew that much? I know they are clearly a big employment sector, but still not sure how much that would skew the national trend.
Headline inflation for 2024 is 2.5, which again feels low, but given the inflation over the past 5 years compared to wage growth I think the compounding effect would/could probably still outstrip the wage growth for essential spending (I can't quite get my head around the maths, and I might be wrong in my premiss).
3.5% is welcome, it needs to outstrip inflation by far more than that to even take us back to 2022 never mind 2008, but if the trend continues maybe we can start chipping away at the losses.
chipping away at the losses
Indeed. I don't think we can expect the losses to be recovered for a decade, or more, if looking at the job market as a whole. Even in health & care, any recent increases are dwarfed by what's happened since 2008. It's a depressing hole... and starting the climb out doesn't mean we're likely to be out of it anytime soon. Prioritising health & care is needed. Lives depend on it. And the sector is in a mess.
It’s a depressing hole… and starting the climb out doesn’t mean we’re likely to be out of it anytime soon. Prioritising health & care is needed. Lives depend on it. And the sector is in a mess.
A big +1 from me although I'd add that every sector is in a mess. A bit of honesty with the voters and less flailing around with nonsense about expanding airports and "mainlining AI into the nation" wouldn't go amiss.
Someone needs to explain about investment in services, utilities, the people, education, health etc, not have it constantly framed as subsidy or bailout.
I don't think we should set our ambitions so low. The wealth exists, but it is and has been flooding up, just hoping for a few years of trickle down will never rectify anything, We need to stop pretending that the past years has been anything but a smash and grab by the wealthy on the majority and reverse it as quickly as they have taken it.
Yup, every sector is a mess, but the results of Health & Care being in a mess are more critical than some/many others, if we're picking priorities. Agree with you about the PR fluff around airports and AI... although some of that is which announcements are picked up on by the media and the public... so much just gets ignored as "well they should be doing that anyway".
And on care... large increases in Council Tax will be the next problem for this government. They're coming, because of Social Care. You can expect both the media and your local facebook groups to get very agitated by it, and linking it to "diversity" and "immigrants", rather than the increasing needs as regards the care system as the population ages.
MSP, look how popular "baby steps" towards taxing the rich have been... people getting behind millionaire land owners and the privately educated. So much more needs doing. It's going to make the government very unpopular though if they do... don't assume the British public have an appetite for reclaiming money from the rich... they should do, but they really don't.
I don't think the general public were behind the millionaire landowners, there were some rent a gobs and some conned by the idea that it affected poor farmers just scraping a living, but the majority were behind the change. Just like the riots, when crunch came to shove they were faced down by the majority, the media tried to suggest the rioters aims were supported by the general public but that just wasn't true.
Lets not base our ambitions on a gobby minority amplified by the media owned by billionaires, people do want change.
Don’t ask for ‘sources’ from certain posters. You’ll never get any.
Monthly GDP figures for the past two years up to Nov 2024. The past two years have been commonly identified as years of 'stagnant' growth. You'll see even then 0.1% per month is small compared to most months with positive growth. Last months 0.1% rise is nothing to celebrate.
2022 Nov - 0.3
2022 Dec - 0.4
2023 Jan - 0.2
2023 Feb - 0.2
2023 Mar - 0.1
2023 Apr - 0.3
2023 May - 0.0
2023 Jun - 0.0
2023 Jul - -0.1
2023 Aug - 0.2
2023 Sep - 0.1
2023 Oct - -0.2
2023 Nov - -0.4
2023 Dec - -0.3
2024 Jan - 0.1
2024 Feb - 0.3
2024 Mar - 0.7
2024 Apr - 0.7
2024 May - 0.7
2024 Jun - 0.4
2024 Jul - 0.2
2024 Aug - 0.0
2024 Sep - 0.0
2024 Oct - 0.0
2024 Nov - 0.0
Source:
people do want change
Yes but it's always ignored in favour of what financial institutions, commercial investors, large landowners (The Crown Estate) certain industries and corporations want, which is reinforced and disseminated to the masses by mainstream media.
Then you have politicians who represent those interests messing about with peoples lives, stirring up division and hatred so they can deliver the wants of their backers and leave the rest of us squabbling over scraps and trying to navigate all the bullshit and hurdles they put in our way.
Oh look your beds burning and here's some water to juggle on your unicycle.
If people want “change” they need to be vocal about supporting change. When the government decided to reduce the tax breaks for landowners, all they heard was opposition. When the government means tested winter fuel payments, all they heard was opposition. When the government settled public pay disputes and paid people slightly more, all they heard was opposition. ‘No not those changes’… making changes that rebalance things away from the wealthy and towards the rest needs to be vocally supported.
When the government means tested winter fuel payments, all they heard was opposition. When the government settled public pay disputes and paid people slightly more, all they heard was opposition. ‘No not those changes’… making changes that rebalance things away from the wealthy and towards the rest needs to be vocally supported
As long as the narrative is controlled by billionaires this is the version of events we get.
It's an uphill struggle because of that, for sure. But governments need to "listen" as well as lead, or they're short lived. If all that is heard is moaning and dropping poll ratings when money is taken from those with wealth... how much more can be pushed in that direction? I think there likely is more to come in terms or tax rises on the wealthy, and redirecting spending to essential services and those that need the most help... but I also expect that to be "unpopular" and unwelcome as regards voters it doesn't even touch... and they will be heard.
If people want “change” they need to be vocal about supporting change.
The French people just voted for change, Macron has done everything in his power deny it. When Bernie was looking strong in his leadership bid the democrats used every dirty trick possible to stop him. When labour offered progressive policies their membership nearly tripled, and the head office and PLP fought against the membership (they didn't mind the SM algorithms and right wing media barons then) to suppress change. When the people spoke out against genocide in Palestine, the tories brought in anti protest laws, laws that Starmer fully supports and has put his weight behind forcing through parliment and fighting legal chalenges.
It isn't the people not speaking, it is the Governments not listening, and it is the centrists arrogance and dismissal of the voice of the people that is pushing them to alternative false promises of change.
It isn’t the people not speaking, it is the Governments not listening, and it is the centrists arrogance and dismissal of the voice of the people that is pushing them to alternative false promises of change
You would hope the pressure from failing just about every group of society (probably apart from the super wealthy with their nice interest income) and Reform up their arse that they may change tact.
But Starmer, Reeves and Co are arrogant in the direction of intent.
Centrists have moved on currently to analysing Musk/Trump over and over rather than looking at the state of the UK.
There's always something to be hysterical at rather than support good doable progressive measures for improving conditions to those struggling.
When the government means tested winter fuel payments, all they heard was opposition
That particular change isn't the problem, it's the appalling execution.
I'll say it again. The Government rushed a change through that disadvantaged some of the poorest and most vulnerable in society.
Some of the UK’s poorest households use 21% less energy during cold weather than other households, leaving them exposed to potentially dangerous cold damp homes... https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/critically-low-energy-usage-hits-poorer-households-during-cold-weather/
Winter fuel payments are only made to households claiming certain benefits, but only around 63% of eligible pensioners claim pension credit. Scotland put the WFP change off for a year to address this problem, E&W rushed in with both feet. This is a problem of the Government's own making.
Cold weather payments are only made after a period of a week at below 0C, six days, no payment.
The poorest kept the winter fuel allowance
What the economy needs is government spending and investment by wuatative easing ie creating money
Without more money in the economy we will not get griwth. Bollox to cant afford it. We cant afford not to
but only around 63% of eligible pensioners claim pension credit
It's 22 years since I worked in DWP and at that point we were sending visiting officers to local community groups and pretty much door to door to help eligible pensioners claim pension credit. It's terrible that the take up rate is so low (as is state pension of course)
The poorest kept the winter fuel allowance
Only if you make yourself eligible. The most vulnerable don't for reasons that you'll well understand...
Eligibility
You can get a Winter Fuel Payment for Winter 2024 to 2025 if you were born before 23 September 1958.You must also live in England, Wales or Northern Ireland and get one of the following:
Pension Credit
Universal Credit
income-related Employment and Support Allowance (ESA)
income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA)
Income Support
Child Tax Credit
Working Tax Credit
You’ll also need to have been getting a benefit during the qualifying week of 16 to 22 September 2024.In some circumstances, you might be eligible if you live abroad. https://www.gov.uk/winter-fuel-payment/eligibility
It’s terrible that the take up rate is so low (as is state pension of course)
Nobody knows for sure, but another figure from the PM is 800,000 (c39%) not claiming it. They knew about this and could have postponed the change as Scotland did...
4 September 2024, 12.29pm
Posted on X
At #PMQs @Keir_Starmer said “800,000 pensioners are not taking up Pension Credit”.Government figures show 1.4 million people currently claim Pension Credit, and up to 880,000 people are eligible but don’t claim it, meaning potentially 39% of those eligible don’t claim it.
Pension Credit is one of the qualifying benefits for the Winter Fuel Payment. Pensioners who don’t receive any of the qualifying benefits will no longer receive the Winter Fuel Payment from this winter.
https://fullfact.org/live/2024/sep/starmer-conference-speech-2024/
If people want “change” they need to be vocal about supporting change.
52% voted for brexit.
40% voted for Corbyn's policies.
Labour members overwhelmingly voted for Corbyn.
Johnson won on a platform of change from the status quo (even if he didn't deliver it)
Starmer did the same and is currently doing his best not delivering it.
Every time voters tell politicians they want change, the politicians nod and agree and then either actively obstruct it in the case of Corbyn, or promise change with no intention of delivering it as with Johnson and Starmer. Starmer even went to the extreme of expelling the members of his party who were calling for change. What more do you expect people to do? Riot?
Another poll just out which puts Labour in third place behind both the Tories and Reform
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1882033953705799782
But I'm sure it's nothing to worry about.
.
What more do you expect people to do? Riot?
Well it worked on the other side of the Atlantic. If Momentum had refused to accept the result of the 2017 general election, stormed Parliament and threatened to hang John Bercow, then Jeremy would have been carried to power in 2019 on a wave of popular revolt and rejection of the status quo. Maybe they could have actually rejected Status Quo too and threatened to hang Francis Rossi?
Either way we’d now be living in a socialist utopia and Jeremy could have pardoned the rioters, declaring them national heroes from the new seat of government… the garden shed in the garden of number 10.
So ultimately the lefties have only themselves to blame for their failure to embrace violent disorder and over-reliance on online petitions instead
So ultimately the lefties have only themselves to blame for their failure to embrace violent disorder and over-reliance on online petitions instead
Totally agree.
The more sensible point though is that politicians of the centre, and their apologists, continually deny that people want something different despite clear evidence to the contrary. The longer this continues, the more support Farage and others on the populist right will gain.
Guardian comments page turning itself inside out as the last of the faux-lefty Liberals realise that Starmer stands for bugger all as Ed Davey steps up his criticism of the Government's attitude to the Europe-wide customs scheme.
Dunt and O'Brien preparing tomorrows's scripts - for how this is a great move.
Wonder if the Liberal swingers will now scuttle off back to where they belong in the Dems; now they caused a whole load of acceleration towards neoliberal doom and incessent defending of quite blantently shit style tory economics and policy?
Oh God What Now team will implode in the next episode finding ways to celebrate every cock-up that has happened this week.
The Government rushed a change through that disadvantaged some of the poorest and most vulnerable in society.
That’s fair. But delaying the announcement a few months would have prevented a push to get people signed up for pension credits before the winter hit though. Could have been put off ‘till next winter I suppose. Most people “hit” are pensioners who can afford it, and the money being spent elsewhere rather than given to rich pensioners should be welcomed.
The push back against taxing the rich continues though, and the government look to be yielding… sounding like the taxing of people who previously used non-dom status to avoid taxes is going to be “modified”. I doubt that means they’ll be paying more tax.
The push back against taxing the rich continues though
By who? I haven't heard anyone other than the super wealthy oppose taxing non doms, so who have the government apparently caved in to? I think we all know who would have been pressuring the government on this issue, and it isn't the general electorate.
You’ll see even then 0.1% per month is small compared to most months with positive growth.
But if you look at all 24 months in that list, 0.1% is better or equal to more than half of them
Last months 0.1% rise is nothing to celebrate.
Not sure anyone should celebrating, but looking at the data over those 24 months, it's better than most.
I think we all know who would have been pressuring the government on this issue, and it isn’t the general electorate.
This. What Kelvin is essentially saying is that we can't have decent public services, infrastructure and a supportive health and welfare systems because the wealthy are not willing to pay for them. Which brings into question the point of democracy, which is to implement policies in the interests of the majority rather than an elite few. I think it's clear that what we're currently experiencing in our politics is the opposite of democracy. The first stage in reversing this is to accept the nature of the problem, and it's obvious that many on here have a long way to go on that.
No, I haven't said that: I have welcomed increased public spending, and also tax rises on the wealthy, and said more of both have to happen.
I have welcomed increased public spending, and also tax rises on the wealthy
Yes but you are also accepting of the fact that these things aren't possible. This is my point, we need to stop conceding to the demands of the rich and do the opposite. To quote Michael Foot:
"f you ask me about those insoluble economic problems that may arise if the top is deprived of their initiative, I would answer 'To hell with them.' The top is greedy and mean and will always find a way to take care of themselves. They always do."
They are entirely possible... but if the public don't support it...
Let's be honest, the people vocally supporting the first tax rises on the rich are few and far between. Minor tax rises on wealthy individuals and companies has gone down like a bag of sick, and all the countries ills blamed on them (be this down the pub, or on the 'net). If the government "listens" rather than just plows on and does what needs doing... then further tax rises on those that have "the widest shoulders" won't be happening. I hope they do happen, but I don't see any signs that they will be welcomed by the public if they do... and ultimately the government gets all its power from the voters.
Sorry for the tangent, but trying to look for the positives so far with Labour and struggling
The economy is going backwards
The NHS is failing at an increased rate ie stopping hospital programme , increasing privatisation
stopping winter fuel payments
Private school education is being taxed higher, making it far more elite than it was previously
Sod the environment and commitment to the environment because they want to build more airport capacity
what positives have I missed ?
but if the public don’t support it
Again you are suggesting the public don't support taxing non doms, you are twisting reality to argue against taxing the rich and blaming the general public, and then denying it when called out, then going straight back to doing the same again.
Conversations I've had have been along the lines of "millionaires will just leave the country" (which to be fair they are, but that argument can be levelled at most taxes paid by the wealthy). I have had no chat, read no post, no article, nothing, zilch welcoming the changes. And that goes for left leaning media and individuals, not just the usual right leaning ones. People have not got behind the attempts to raise taxes on wealthy individuals and business at all... instead they are blaming all the countries economic ills on them... despite the economic problems already being present before the tax rises, and before the election.
Here you go, front page of the guardian today, and its not even a website I regularly visit,
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/23/tax-the-rich-extreme-wealth-dale-vince
Maybe try a bit harder making excuses and blaming everyone else for what you are arguing against.
but I don’t see any signs that they will be welcomed by the public if they do…
And yet Labour were voted into power after proposing tax rises on non-doms, private schools, energy companies etc, and also a commitment not to raise taxes on working people. And then labour went back on their promise not to raise taxes on workers and at the same time said they still couldn't afford to improve services despite that tax rise. The takeaway for the voters is that labour aren't willing to raise taxes on the rich, but are willing to raise taxes on workers, and the result of that is they still can't afford to materially improve public services. If you had any doubt about Labour's incompetence and confusion on this issue look at recent messaging:
- We can't afford to build new hospitals
- We need to water down tax rises on non-doms because they have 'concerns'
Is it any wonder the voters don't trust labour on tax and improving public services?
and ultimately the government gets all its power from the voters.
Who by a clear majority back higher taxes on the wealthiest
Majority back higher taxes on wealthiest – new research
https://taxjustice.uk/blog/majority-back-higher-taxes-on-wealthiest-new-research/
A majority (64%) of people in the UK would be more likely to vote for a political party at an election if it was committed to higher taxes on the wealthiest to invest in the NHS and public services.
I think the problem is that Sir Keir Starmer is very willing to consider unpopular and "difficult decisions" but considerably less willing about making popular and easy decisions.
I don't think that you need to be a genius to figure out why that might be.