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It's been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people's aspirations already, it doesn't augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer's desire to brook no opposition.
parachuting in placemen to safe seats
We elected the same parliamentary candidate that stood in our seat under Corbyn. I don't know who your local Labour members chose. Not a safe seat though. Perhaps if we get as many Labour MPs as possible in the commons not from traditionally "safe seats", we'll get a wider church of Labour MPs than if Labour only scrape a win based on safe seats plus more winnable seats.
The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics
We’re just coming off a political tailspin of Johnson -> Truss -> Sunak. Reform UK haven’t been the only ones competing for the attention of grifting egomaniacs drawn to leadership roles in populist right wing politics.
I do find it amusing that the voters the Tories chased hardest in recent years are defecting to Reform UK, while many traditional right-centrist conservative voters seem to be voting Lib Dem, Labour, or even Green depending on their constituency. Much of the remaining Conservative support looks very likely to depart the electorate over the next couple of electoral cycles. That’s the real extinction event.
good comparison of how the different pollsters weight their data
For reference-Tory averages for
_________ nowcasters- 19%, (<50seats) ___squeezers-n 21(<100 seats), ____reweighters- 23.5(~200seats)
the squeezers are asking the dont knows who they'd vote for , the reweighetrs basing it on previous elections
either method could be right, but with 3 other parties taking their votes & the Tories breathtakingly unpopular if nothing major changes .....
then IMHO Tories looking at a massive wipeout (<100 seats) rather than the 19% (<50 seats) Oblivion
also sunaks own team must really hate him to arrange this kind of stuff
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1803064545776124024
IPSOS (usually very accurate predictor of a GE) MRP is out
They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs
That 'feels' realistic, and hopefully will prevent too much 'it's in the bag' complacency among Labour voters.
They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs
And apparently the Green Party ending up with 3 MPs, which doesn't sound very realistic to me - I am not aware of any opinion polls which claim that the Greens will get more than 2 seats, most claim just one.
Predicting the tail is very hard. Green will likely retain Brighton and Reform win something. I said earlier, conservatives will do better than the dooming at about 120 seats. I can’t imagine them getting less than 100. But then I could imagine Trump and Johnson as leaders of UK/US!
The Lib Dems’ “Project A30”
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1802954266300080629
Looks like 13% of the vote would do it.
PS, why don't X/Twitter posts embed on here now?
It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people’s aspirations already, it doesn’t augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer’s desire to brook no opposition.
Yeah that ^ , austerity 3.0 and flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25
He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement
It’s like the Honeymonster’s been hitting his own supply hard and long.
flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25
I hate it when I laugh at inappropriate gems like this.
14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.
That leaves Reform UK then.
I'm not convinced the Venn diagram of folk who might vote Reform or might vote LibDem has a big enough overlap to be a concern.
DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS MIDNIGHT TELL YOUR FRIENDS.
yes it is caps ON important
Not sure where best to post this but here is probably as good a place as any considering this election is “supposedly” about a fairer society, not that I have any faith in Starmer and his “advisors” to do anything to fix it
That Ipsos data is only 1014 people! Ipsos is up to 4 June so why so late to publish the data? And no constituency data
Survation is based on 30k respondents to June 3 and was published on June 4 with constituency data
I see he's visiting the south west today. Hands up, who doesn't love a Cornish Patsy?
The ipsos one is 20,000 proportionally across constituencies fieldwork 7-14th june
https://twitter.com/IpsosUK/status/1803107966637199746?t=FEwI1oYrf6uTarvzZKa7fQ&s=19
No self selection so should be less biased
Has reform lower & tories higher than other polls and constituency data is pretty close to national swing, except in a few constituencies where they pick up big local effects, personalities etc, eg Anderson with big numbers in Ashfield. And that 3rd green seat in north Herefordshire (that was close with Survation MRP too)
Rather than watch the C4 debate on immigration (I’d rather punch myself in the balls) I’m watching this instead,
The Tories have got Laura Trott to do a party political broadcast tonight. Laura Trott?!! Nobody else. Just 5 minutes of Laura Trott stood at a podium reading out stuff they just made up.
Seriously? That’s it?
Obviously nobody else will go near that gig so they’ve got a woman doing it who’s so dense that light bends around her.
You can actually smell the desperation now. Sunak is now like kryptonite. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him or have anything to do with the upcoming electoral Armageddon.
Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don't do the vetting) been done?
Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don’t do the vetting) been done?
No but it's very funny
It will stop being funny when we have a competent far right party, but right now we can laugh
Rishi v Jay Rayner. There’s only going to be one winner there
https://Twitter.com/jayrayner1/status/1803029108244291832?s=46&t=1lK7Dw1b6RqGJyvufO-trQ
Missed that ipsos data when I looked earlier kimbers.....
Different recommendations for some seats cf electoral calculus and ft.......
Not sure how well MRP takes into account recent local council results and local candidate time in constituency vs parachute candidates from above
They're just throwing whatever they can at the wall to see what sticks.
But what he wont do is attack farage who has promised to destroy the tories
It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right
Once the dust has settled on a Labour win get ready for the right-wing backlash. Remember British voters are so arrogant and see themselves as right about everything all along. They will be lapping up the not right-wing enough narrative fed to them by the press. Give it five years of Labour (yet again failing to deliver for working people) getting savaged by the right-wing press, who will point it out at every opportunity and they will be ready for a BNP light fronted by the right person!
This (and some other social media platforms) are the only places I hear clamouring for a green socialist future, I just don't hear it anywhere out there in real life! You can thank Just Stop Oil, social media know-it-alls and money grabbing councils for seeing the greens pushed further down the agenda. People don't want to be shamed, chastised, then fined and restricted going about their day-today lives and will vote accordingly.
Imagine you've been in a coma for the last 10 years, you miraculously wake up and want to catch up on the news, and this is the first story you read...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/tony-blair-rosie-duffield-holyrood-basingstoke-canterbury-b2564637.html
what would you think has happened while you were out?
I'd think some people are very easily triggered by culture war nonsense?
More than half of voters want Jeremy Corbyn back in the Labour Party, new poll reveals
Using their data it’s more than 90% of Labour voters… but looking at the polling question, I wouldn’t go near their data with a barge poll…
…effectively asking two separate questions, both framed and limited by assuming two positive and unconnected results, and the answers making people chose between options that refer to both questions… well… it’s junk statistics coming out of that.
Hands up, who doesn’t love a Cornish Patsy?
Me. I cannot even smell one without gagging. When I was 12 I bit into one and it had a cigarette end in it. Fifty years later I can still taste it when a pasty is mentioned.
really struggle to see the Greens winning Herefordshire
I’m in that constituency, North Herefordshire. It might happen. There are lots of green councillors on the Council, Ellie Chowns is very well thought of locally and they have been throwing a lot of resources and effort into canvassing. Conversely we have had nothing from the Tory, Wiggin. Unlike Ellie, I have not yet anyone who has actually met him have a good word to say. That includes me, I have met him three times. His vocal support for a local farmer who was sent to jail and given a £1.2 million fine for wrecking a stretch of the river Wye ( who happened to be a personal friend and Tory activist) didn’t help in some communities.
If she can jump from 4th to 1st, that would be amazing. More likely that vote will be split and the Tories win on a reduced majority.
"I’d think some people are very easily triggered by culture war nonsense"
well no, you'd have been in a coma for 10 years so would be unaware of the culture wars.
More than half of voters want Jeremy Corbyn back in the Labour Party, new poll reveals
Who *ing cares? Seriously?
The man was always an irrelevance who seemed to bizarrely obsess a certain type of person
Asking people ‘do you think Jeremy Corbyn should be back in the Labour Party?’. That’s like asking people ‘would you agree that better to have beers on toast on white bread, rather than brown’
Did they note who answered ‘who?’ or ‘whatever’?
NOBODY *ING CARES!
When magic grandad shuffled off to the allotment the Labour Party was 24 points behind in the polls thanks to him, now they’re on the brink of a historic majority
So Jeremy Corbyn and his cultish followers can * right off and when they get there they can right off some more, and then…,
you get the picture
Who *ing cares? Seriously?
That’s just asking people ‘do you think Jeremy Corbyn should be back in the Labour Party?’. That’s like asking people ‘would you agree that better to have beers on toast on white bread rather than brown’
Did they note who answered ‘who?’ or ‘whatever’?
NOBODY *ING CARES!
When magic grandad shuffled off to the allotment the Labour Party was 24 points behind in the polls, now they’re on the brink of a historic majority
So Jeremy Corbyn and his cultish followers can * off and when he gets there they can off some more, and then…,
you get the picture
I just linked an article in the Independent about a high profile candidate in the general election, and this is the general election thread. Calm down.
And to answer your question apparently the Independent believes that their readers will be interested.
you’d have been in a coma for 10 years so would be unaware of the culture wars.
Indeed. The Tories have been trying to stoke up culture wars to distract attention away from their spectacular failings for literally years.
You would have to have been in a coma, or pretty daft, not to be aware of that.
Jeremy Corbyn is about as relevant to this general election as Iain Duncan Smith or William Hague, despite what bitter, disgruntled north London cult members think
He lost. Twice. Get over it!
We’ve all had to live with the consequences, but not an ounce of contrition from him. He’s just a lefty Boris. Narcissistic, egomaniacal and totally self-absorbed
Imagine you’ve been in a coma for the last 10 years, you miraculously wake up and want to catch up on the news, and this is the first story you read
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/tony-blair-rosie-duffield-holyrood-basingstoke-canterbury-b2564637.htmlwhat would you think has happened while you were out?
That Blair had been convicted of fraud and now everyone fact checks everything he says with Keir Starmer, who I've never heard of but is presumably a guy that owns a dictionary, like the boffins on Countdown.
He lost. Twice. Get over it!
I have. You don't seem to have though.
That's quite an amazing reaction to just the mere mention of a general election candidate. In fact I didn't even mention him, just provide a link to a newspaper article.
Is it cause he's a lefty? You really hate the Left, don't you?
Edit: BTW Corbyn is likely to come up again in this general election so it might help you if you could find a way of dealing with it without going hysterical 💡
Is it cause he’s a lefty? You really hate the Left, don’t you?
You're getting provacative and destructive again, Ernie, the thread has been going well including some of the stuff from you but when you start putting words into people's mouth with your dumb questions it's really ****ing irritating and the worst of STW.
Hit the report button Ed if you are outraged by my posts.
I have no idea what you are talking about.
Edit: Ah I see that you have edited your post now Ed.
You are apparently outraged because I suggested that binners hates the Left.
Based on his countless rants about the Left it is a perfectly reasonable observation imo.
He’s just a lefty Boris.
Is he bollocks. But that's for another thread, from five years ago.
@binners - how's the electioneering stuff going in your area to get rid of the mekon?
I'll get back to you about the other stuff - nudge nudge....
Who ****ing cares? Seriously?
Clearly you do considering how readily you rabidly launch into rants which could be taken from gbeebies. Indeed it is odd how your attack lines match those of gbeebies and the right wing rags.
Lets hope no one is answering the door to you since otherwise its going to help out the tories and ukip.
You are apparently outraged because I suggested that binners hates the Left.
An inaccurate assumption on two counts. Try reading what I actually posted and responding to that rather than inventing stuff. It's your habit of putting question marks after stuff that's personal, insulting and inaccurate that's irritating - it's putting words into people mouths with that's irritating.
I don't much care about Binner's opinion of the left, it's your tactics I find irritating because you do it to me, Binner's and anyone else you get in a spat with. Count the number of people whose last contribution to the Starmer thread was that they were no longer going to post in it because it was dominated by a handful of posters making debate impossible.
Be nice if whatever people have to say here they don't get words put in their mouths, wild assumptions made about them or on their behalf etc.
I don't find Binners "hysterical", I find his posts funny with more than a hint of veracity.
I would like to correct myself;
That’s quite an amazing reaction to just the mere mention of a general election candidate. In fact I didn’t even mention him, just provide a link to a newspaper article.
In hindsight it wasn't a reaction to the mere mention of Corbyn.
Corbyn was mentioned earlier, by kimbers I think, with regards to an Ipsos poll which claimed that he would not win Islington North, I don't recall an asterisk-laden rant about how NOBODY CARES.
It seems that Corbyn can be mentioned as long it is only from a totally negative perspective, otherwise someone starts throwing their toys out of their pram.
Maybe binners should be messaged first before posting to check that it is okay with him to mention Corbyn?
@dissonance - I would be very surprised if binners' campaigning activities did anything other than promote the labour candidate in his constituency and labour's general manifesto commitments.
In my constituency, there hasn't been a single comment about Corbyn on the doorstep or in campaign events or at local markets.
IF jenrick, who is now in a very close fight to retain his seat, thought there was any benefit to him from referring to corbyn he would have done it by now.
He hasn't; conclusion - corbyn is now an irrelevance.
Your experience on the doorstep may be different.
Jeezus......a straight fight between the Greens and Reform UK, with Labour on 10%!
https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1803112570045567430
ernielynch
Full Member
Jeezus……a straight fight between the Greens and Reform UK, with Labour on 10%!https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1803112570045567430/blockquote >
Any Labour voters there need to vote tactically!Not my constituency but to see the Greens edged out by those ***** would be a travesty.
Waveney Vallley is a new constituency; it's 1 (one) of 630 seats.
The polling - and result - there is an irrelevance.
I rarely bother with the political threads, partly because I’m just not interested in the subject enough to bother, and partly because of the way things develop, as the last two or three pages show, but, and I can’t be arsed to dig through 100-odd pages to find out if it’s been mentioned, what is the opinion on the differences that all the new constituencies may make to voting patterns?
Chippenham has been solidly conservative for decades, but you used to see a fair amount of support for Labour, due largely to the majority of the town’s working class population being employed by Westinghouse Brake & Signal Company, but the population has grown enormously, the type of work available has diversified, and judging by the posters stuck in windows and gardens, (which is much, much less than it was say twenty years ago), the LibDems seem to be the only party with any support at all.
The boundaries are being altered locally, as are quite a few others, Michelle Donelan, our MP has shut her local office and gone elsewhere, Labour seem to have virtually no support, about 4%, the Greens have 3%, the tories only have a lead of about 4% over the LD, at 42%, so I can see that slender lead, what with the changes to local boundaries n’all, absolutely evaporating, and the same thing happening elsewhere.
I can see Labour doing really well nationally, but I have a feeling that the LibDems might do better than many imagine, because traditional boundaries are being altered, some crossing county boundaries.
We are certainly living in interesting times…
I would take Corbyn's Labour Party over Starmers anyday and if Starmer had the same policies as Corbyn do you think he would be doing any worse today?
If Starmer's current approach/policies were up against Boris in the "Get Brexit Done' election do you really think he would have won against Boris. Nope, of course he wouldn't and Boris would have won just as easily so not really worth dwelling on that election and blaming Corbyn for letting the Tories continue.
Starmer is not ahead because people think Starmer or his policies are great. I will be voting Labour as looking at polling in my area they seem to be second and in some polls 'only' 10-15% behind the tories.
Exactly Kerley.
To make matters worse Starmer doesn't really have much in the way of policy. He has flaky logic that he has to shuffle around in his head to justify sound bites to the electorate.
For example, his absolutely stupid logic over apparently modelling what it would take to nationalise certain industries is proposterous. It's a new one some advisor has told him to say when he goes in front of journalists.
Made up.
GB energy is nothing more than poster material too, designed to tick off an idea.
It's appears to me that centrists like to pretend they want to change things but when it comes to the crunch they jump through hoops as to why they can't - unfunded/Truss/public finances - it's the biggest and most financially illiterate con I've seen in this election.
https://twitter.com/darioperkins/status/1801324565823394261
The big thing about the Trussonomics fiasco is not that it "nearly crushed" the economy, a crisis that was over within weeks, but that it has scared the s*** out of UK politicians and left the whole debate about fiscal policy in a really dumb place.
It's all going to come undone very quickly.
I would take Corbyn’s Labour Party over Starmers anyday
Glorious, smug failure.
If Starmer’s current approach/policies were up against Boris in the “Get Brexit Done’ election do you really think he would have won against Boris. Nope, of course he wouldn’t and Boris would have won just as easily so not really worth dwelling on that election and blaming Corbyn for letting the Tories continue.
Complete rewriting of history. The country was a shitshow then and Johnson had negative approval ratings throughout the year. No deal Brexit. Illegal proroguing of Parliament and lying to the Queen. Giving govt money to someone he'd been bonking. The 2019 election was not just winnable but should have been a gift to Labour. Of course Corbyn is responsible for the loss.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/24/world/europe/uk-supreme-court-brexit.html
Starmer is not ahead because people think Starmer or his policies are great.
Corbyn didn't lose twice because people thought Corbyn or his policies were great!
“I would take Corbyn’s Labour Party over Starmers anyday and if Starmer had the same policies as Corbyn do you think he would be doing any worse today? “
Then Labour would lose, again. Corbyn was toxic to the majority of Voters. Some of his teams policies were good,but some were just a joke, like many of the Tory policies now. Some of his team were good, John Mcdonald would have made a good Chancellor, but other members of his team were useless, yes, you, Diane Abbott.
If Starmer was the Leader of the same Shadow Cabinet, with the same policies, he’d lose too. Starmer is only going to win because the Tories are so bad, and the Labour Party are not on the edge of being loonies any more, with Starmer and his team. They dont inspire the majority, but a large minority will give them a chance, as they hope they’ll be better than the idiots in charge now.
Then Labour would lose, again.
"But we would have the element of surprise! The Tories would never expect us to fight this election on the same Corbynite platform that lost us the last two elections!"
I knocked on a lot of doors in 2019, Corbyn came up again and again as.a reason people were voting Conservative.
He may be liked by some on here but electorally with the wider country he was pure poison.
Whether or not you think Starmer has gone too far the other way to compensate is up to you and many of the criticisms are valid. But to think the Labour party would be heading to government now if they still had Corbyn at the helm is willfully ignoring the lessons of the very recent past.
Then Labour would lose, again. Corbyn was toxic to the majority of Voters.
You missed the bit about Starmer having the policies from 5 years ago. Corbyn is not part of that and I agree he was toxic and useless. I am talking about what the Labour Party stood for, what they would try and acheive etc,. ignoring who the leader was at the time.
If you don't think those policies would attract people more than Starmers overall policy of "we can't really do anything" then I disagree with that and good luck to you and your next 5 years of nothing.
If you asked the 'I couldn't vote for Corbyn' people 'why?' they'd struggle to give an answer. In European terms he was middle of the road. He was defeated by RW Labour, the press and the Lobby. People now realise they were conned and people change. If Starmer had Corbyn's policies in his manifesto he would be much more popular rather than just benefitting from the anti-Tory sentiment. Corbyn was weak, he didn't fight his corner but I suspect Starmer's big-business backed neoliberalism will come unstuck pretty quickly.
Starmers overall policy of “we can’t really do anything” then I disagree with that and good luck to you and your next 5 years of nothing
What's wrong with not spooking the wavering Tory voter, not suggesting privatising air and gently getting into power and trying to sort the mess out?
There's always the Reform "Smash Everything" platform that will appeal to some, but you need to get as many on board with vanilla policies to get behind the wheel of the country.
Anyway, there's a Corbyn thread where binners can go and recycle his tedious abuse.
What’s wrong with not spooking the wavering Tory voter, not suggesting privatising air and gently getting into power and trying to sort the mess out?
So you believe the strategy is to get into power and then completely change to be a progressive more radical party, breaking all the pledges and 'fiscal rules' they have promised.
I hope you are right...
If you asked the ‘I couldn’t vote for Corbyn’ people ‘why?’ they’d struggle to give an answer.
The thing about elections is that the voters don't have to justify why they refuse to vote for you.
He was defeated by RW Labour, the press and the Lobby. People now realise they were conned and people change.
The observable change since Corbyn's second loss is a massive increase in support for right wing Labour.
I think you'll find it's anti-Tory sentiment.
“What’s wrong with not spooking the wavering Tory voter, not suggesting privatising air and gently getting into power and trying to sort the mess out? “
Exactly. People dont want too much change. Just a bit better than the Tories, with a few policies that may help the Country are what the majority of people currently want. They dont want a revolution, they would never want Corbyn, despite some people still saying his Policies were good, they werent, and few would say we were conned, no, the Country overwhelmingly showed that he wasnt wanted in 2019. His voting/election results show his lack of appeal, so why do people still think he would have done a good job? He, and his Labour supporters have given us the last 7 years of incompetence, the Tories were ripe to lose in 2017, with a better Leader, Labour would have won easily, it’s Labours fault that they picked Corbyn, and left us in this mess for another 7 years.
Starmer has said he’s hoping for small changes, which is why he’ll win. Radical policies will never win, Starmer is showing he has a bit more intelligence than Corbyn in not calling for anything that could repel any swing voters, he wants the middle ground, and with the middle ground comes policies that do not go far enough for the left (or right) campaigners.
Let's just remind ourselves that under Corbyn labour received 40% of the vote share in 2017 & 32.1% in 2019, compare that with labour results in previous years:-
2001 - 40.7%
2005 - 35%
2010 - 29%
2015 - 30.4%
Personally I don't see his results as being toxic & voted labour for the first time in 2017 because of him being leader.
That John Caudwell of Phones4U got it right, ''What Keir has done...is taken all the left out of the Labour party, and he's come out with a set of values and principles in complete alignment with my views as a commercial capitalist.''
Just a bit better than the Tories, with a few policies that may help the Country are what the majority of people currently want.
That is very depressing. Like the use of the word 'may'.