[Closed] Those Greeks- that ticking timebomb in less than two weeks

They did defer it - to the end of the month.

Rachel

Anyone with a grasp of the situation/economics explain?

They need to quickly pop in here :

[img] ~c200[/img]

Looks like Putin to the rescue doesn't it?

The whole thing is a car crash. Its always been a case of when, not if, Greece will default and drop out of the Euro. The whole ridiculous situaution has always been completely unsustainaable in the long term. They've just been fudging it to postpone the inevitable. How very EU.

Now it looks like the real power in Berlin has finally reached "**** it...." stage, so its game over.

I think all the financial establishment are all pretty much resigned to it happening, so I can't see it being a massive hit

Would I fancy living in Greece at the moment? Not a chance! Are things about to get an awful lot wore for them? Most definitely!

Yes I suspect that's the main worry- if the ECB/IMF won't lend Greece the money, Greece will turn to a country that will and Russia is top of that list. Dread to think what Russia will ask for in return eg military installations on the border etc

Last year I went to Greece on holiday and we were doomed before we went (apparently)

Going in another couple of weeks, and looks like we are doomed again. (apparently)

Thats my expert analysis

The people have been going downhill for the past 5 years or more...They have had enough. The debt in it's current form will never be paid off, so might as well call it quits.

Far as I'm concerned the German state has far too much say in EU politics and the only ones who really benefit from the EU are the EU politicians....oh and the German exports...lets not forget that.

They should have stopped at free trade and free movement of people without needing Visa's to work.

I'd be glad to see a good shake up.

GL
(Greek financial refugee).

The Greek mess will get resolved one way or another (default or haircut being the same thing in the end), the vast majority of the debt they owe is to the ECB which would be very bad news for the Eurozone in general but more specifically to the countries that have adopted the Euro. We are currently benefitting as a safe haven from the potentially volatile Euro so your holiday money goes a bit further at the moment.

If I was a German citizen I’d be in a rage and demanding a default and expulsion from the Euro etc but cool heads are required as that simply plunges Greece in to the economic abysis and much less of the debt would ultimately get repaid. I’d expect some combination of debt right off and long term restructuring with heavy penalties and political interference as conditions.

Dread to think what Russia will ask for in return eg military installations on the border etc

In preparation for the invasion of Western Europe ?

Scarey stuff eh ?

As I understand it, if they Fail to pay the ECB money, there are penalties and actions enshrined in ECB legislation that kick in automatically. The results of which would be huge.

Essentially, at that point it's out of the hands of the politicians, who have up till now bent the rules to suit.

Dread to think what Russia will ask for in return eg military installations on the border etc

My simple view is thus : My pound sterling goes a lot further when I go over to Ireland to visit the in-laws. I can now almost afford to keep up with them at the pub - my liver on the other hand...

I wish they all wanted to disarm.

I reckon their only mistake is on waiting so long tbh. Interesting times though. Nobody's looking good though, the ECB and IMF's conduct has been appalling.

Off to Crete on the 30th...2 Bilion removed from Greek Banks Mon-Wed and the banks are shut on Mondays to stop over the counter withdrawls. Think I may bring electrical goods and sell them as I need to hire a pedalo etc a la Weimar Republic.

Greece will default on the IMF and ECB loans and there will be no more credit. This worries me because a Greek customer owes us about €74,000 right now. This customer pays regularly when it suits him but makes us wait when cash is short, in other words he has the same cavalier attitude to his creditors as his government does.

When credit runs out and there's no more cash, cashpoints will run dry, there will be a run on the Greek banks and presumably anarchy. Scary.

The irony is that if the dozen or so filthy rich Greek shipping owners paid just a tenth of what they owe their government in taxes, all Greece's problems would be resolved.

We are hoping a rabbit will be pulled from a hat over this weekend.

Dread to think what Russia will ask for in return eg military installations on the border etc

Nah... they're not interested in that. Even Putin wouldn't want to provoke Europe that much, militarily. Why Bother?

He's after something far more important, and closer to his heart than that. What he's after is a suitably ••••ed and desperate banking system, right slap bang in the middle of Europe, that him and his mates can use to launder their money so they can buy the rest of London, and most of the rest of Europe

duckman - Member

Off to Crete on the 30th... I need to hire a pedalo

Try not to fall in - I wouldn't like to rely on Greek medical assistance right now, insured or not...

Far as I'm concerned the German state has far too much say in EU politics and the only ones who really benefit from the EU are the EU politicians....oh and the German exports...lets not forget that.

If only there were another large EU country that could act as a counterweight to the Germans, assuming it's politicians were brave enough to actually do something and not just whine about it from the sidelines.

Next step is whether the ECB grants another 3.5bn in support to the Greek banks which they have asked for, decision made in last few minutes I understand but not made public. It seems to me capital control (ie you can't get your money out) are inevitable at the Greek banks. If they don't get the 3.5bn its very possible Greek banks will be shut on Monday.

If Greece does default at the end of the month I suspect there will be much shouting before a deal is done sometime in the following weeks. Greek people don't want to leave the euro and if they did leave the euro they would quite probably be forced out of the EU as well.

If there is no deal we will see some economic disruption not least as the eurozone is on the hook for a few hundred billion in losses. The medium term outlook is better though as financial discipline is restored to the eurozone and the general view is the currency will go up as the weakest member is out. The financial system is prepared for a Greek exit, banks where required to make plans in 2010 fora Greek default and I am sure they will have been told to update those this time around.

Oh well, nice cheap holiday in France coming up 🙂 Greeks are getting their just deserts for serving me (eventually) warm lager and cold chips!

If only there were another large EU country that could act as a counterweight to the Germans, assuming it's politicians were brave enough to actually do something and not just whine about it from the sidelines.

How much money does Russia really have to spend on Greece?

Theyve committed and awful lot to military spending and some pundits have them as out of cash reserves in the not too distant future!

That's a question, not a statement.

The cost for Greece to stay and the cost for them to leave are both billions and both will be funded by Europe - unless/maybe Putin gets involved in a Greek exit (do you hate this "Grexit" term....I do it is a Greek exit!!)

How much money does Russia really have to spend on Greece?

Not much if the following is anything to go by.

There is a piece here, The Russian issue is going to cost 2.5M jobs in Europe...so they say.

http://www.thelocal.ch/20150619/russian-crisis-threatens-40000-swiss-jobs

So does this mean the Germans won't deliver all those nice submarines they paid for in advance and they had yet to deliver.

theflatboy - Member

duckman - Member

Off to Crete on the 30th... I need to hire a pedalo

Try not to fall in - I wouldn't like to rely on Greek medical assistance right now, insured or not...

Posted 19 minutes ago #Report-Post

You're not helping!

I appreciate that in theory it's bad news bears and all, but all I can think is "good for them".

And of course, if they get the 7.2 billon bail out, this month it's all pretty much spoken for. Where does the 10 they need in July and August come from, (you holiday makers best be drinking a lot of lager)
[img] http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/83100000/gif/_83100119_greece_debt_repayment_timeline_july.gif [/img][img] http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/83100000/gif/_83100118_greece_debt_repayment_timeline_august.gi f" target="_blank">http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/83100000/gif/_83100119_greece_debt_repayment_timeline_july.gif [/img][img] http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/media/images/83100000/gif/_83100118_greece_debt_repayment_timeline_august.gi f"/> [/img]

hora - Member

The default at the end of this month, can it be deferred?

Do you think loan shark will deferred payment?

If it can't and the Greeks default it'll cause massive problems in the money markets and hurt our pockets wont it? Thats my laymans understanding.

I just misread it as "monkey" markets ... thought all the bananas would be gone.

However-
Anyone with a grasp of the situation/economics explain?

With UK being so astute in finance the impact is minimal. UK is very good at counting money you know. Monneeeyyyy! Not monkey.

The cost for Greece to stay and the cost for them to leave are both billions

As I see this/have read into this along the way- by dragging this out its just going to cost more and more when it finally happens. 1trillion euro-mark anyone?

I see it this way. I earn £8,000 a year but my living standards and outgoings are £12,000 a year. I take out numerous credit cards and keep increasing my credit limit- my required repayments don't cover the interest nor make any movement on the overall credit card balance.

Yet every year I'm spending £4,000 more just to survive.

If anything changes in my circumstances (I can't make payments required) or if the bank wants me to clear my credit card what happens?

I do a voluntary bankruptcy then sit back and claim it was all the bankers (IMF and Germans fault). Laughing.

In the real world- Greece leans quite hard to the left. Infact it becomes a Communist country again. There are still cheap holidays to be had although Germans for some reason aren't welcome.

If it impacts us- i.e. we lose money personally, it sticks us into a recession OR (more likely) the EU asks all memberstates for billions each contribution to shore up the central bank post-Greece we'll blame the Greeks for costing the British taxpayer xmultiple billions.

Either way- who the **** let the Greeks join with their cooked books in 2001?

@piemonster - Russia is in trouble financially with sanctions hurting and oil price down. Their economy is now half the size of the UK. They cannot really help longer term but they can certainly cause some trouble which I'm sure they would love to do. NATO member Greece cozying up the the Russians 😯

People may have voted for Syriza but they don't want to live in a Mk2 Soviet Union

In the real world- Greece leans quite hard to the left. Infact it becomes a Communist country again

Afraid not, there is quite strong options either way, remember they had a Civil war after WWII. And quite a few years of Military dictatorship....

Either way- who the **** let the Greeks join with their cooked books in 2001?

Glad you brought that up...All the EU hobknobs knew this back then...But they wanted the EU to grow and for them to gain more power...

@hora - yes that's all part of the "game theory" theory - either way the eurozone has to endure a world of pain. However I think that the eurozone is more afraid of the same happening in say Spain (ie we won't pay our debts) so they could let Greece go.

Either way- who the **** let the Greeks join with their cooked books in 2001?

hora,

The fundamental of lending money is that the person you are lending to is able to pay back.

If you lend it to someone who is bankrupt with hardly any assets then you are either foolish or you are going to be a slave master or a pimp.

😮

Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Greece leaving the euro is a bad thing? I would have though loosing a weak country lifts the average of the rest?

If you lend it to someone who is bankrupt with hardly any assets then you are either foolish or you are going to be a slave master or be a pimp.

Which implies they know Greece leaving is going to cause massive problems throughout Europe. If it was £10bn owed it wouldn't be too much of a problem but approaching £400billion its a massive problem thats growing. they've created a monster.

****ing ing Greek-Godzilla.

Earl - Member

Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Greece leaving the euro is a bad thing? I would have though loosing a weak country lifts the average of the rest?

Not a bad thing. It's better for the Greek people not to beg and to retain their dignity.

hora - Member
Which implies they know Greece leaving is going to cause massive problems throughout Europe. If it was £10bn owed it wouldn't be too much of a problem but approaching £400billion its a massive problem thats growing. they've created a monster.

**** Greek-Godzilla.

Ya, Greek is now playing the "too big to fail" game and also playing "you snooze you loose game" or you blink you loose.

Unfortunately, if EU wants their money back from the Greek they just have to become the pimp.

Chewkw - with no money to pay pensions, wages and public services. What will happen in Greece?

I suppose the national currency would be revived and printed/distributed asap but their would be rampant Zimbabwe-style inflation for years.

they should not have been allowed into the currency until they had proven they could manage their economy.

So never then. The Greek economy has a history of being an utter shambles, which is why IMO Europe will never get their money back. The Euro zone should cut their losses write off what is owed and run. It seems that just to keep the EU and Euro project together that they are willing to keep chucking money into a black hole, crazy 👿

hora - Member

Chewkw - with no money to pay pensions, wages and public services. What will happen in Greece?

I suppose the national currency would be revived and printed/distributed asap but their would be rampant Zimbabwe-style inflation for years.

Yeap, but having Zimbabwe currency is still better than being prostituted. 🙂

hora, you are good. See you can now own a piece of Greece ...

I wan't being cynical or anything - I'm just not very clued up about any of this stuff.

Earl - Member

Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Greece leaving the euro is a bad thing?

among other things, it shows all the other countries with (nearly) similarly crippling debts that default + euro-exit is an option.

The Euro zone might be able to survive one country leaving, but 4?

my armchair prediction: Greece will have some (more) debt written off, other debts will be 're-structured', and the creaking heap will carry on for another year.

Agree. The sad thing is they'll blame the Germans for their downfall. Not firmly themselves. They'll still avoid paying proper taxes, etc etc.

hora - Member
Agree. The sad thing is they'll blame the Germans for their downfall. Not firmly themselves. They'll still avoid paying proper taxes, etc etc.

I can hear my Greek friends cursing the Germans in Greek now ... 😆

Paying proper taxes etc ? My Greek friends would laugh and give you the blank look. 😆

Well, one of my friend who is working in a Greek resort will keep her job as I can see an increase in tourism soon. Cheap holidays anyone? Please pay in EURO, GBP, Krone, US$ but not Drachma if you are a visitor.

Is it fair to look at Zimbabwe and how it coped/copes? Of course different reasons- the leadership but still?

http://www.afdb.org/en/countries/southern-africa/zimbabwe/zimbabwe-economic-outlook/

Holidays will ALWAYS be booked up there- just like Spain who has its own problems.

When the Greeks gain introspective then they'll turn a corner.

A fair comment?

Agree. The sad thing is they'll blame the Germans for their downfall. Not firmly themselves. They'll still avoid paying proper taxes, etc etc.

Did you read that somewhere? Or just decide to re-use an old favorite line?

Want to mention the forced loan the Nazi's took from the National Bank of Greece? I think sometimes we are a little too keen to forget recent History.

Greece should never have been allowed in to the Euro in the first place.

Look at the big picture, how can anyone group a massive economy such as Germany and Greece's together....Forget about differences in language, culture and pretty much everything else.

The Euro was never going to work, but they have been flogging a dead horse.

Why do they try and prop it up....Because Greece is tiny..tiny compared to say Italy.

If these bods can't sort out a few issues with Greece's Economy....they have no hope with the others...Italy, Spain, Portugal.

Time bomb ticking.

Can someone explain to me in simple terms why Greece leaving the euro is a bad thing? I would have though loosing a weak country lifts the average of the rest?

It's the second order effects ie what happens next. Greece alone is manageable - a derailment of the wider (doomed) € project is not. Plus the geopolitical angle is of concern.

Greece is done, this is just the long awaited end game. They have suffered very badly from being in an artificial construct (€) that was designed to fail them and itself. It has been a catastrophe for Greece on the up and downside and a salutary lesson - an no, it was not their fault alone, far from it. Having said that they have negotiated like children not game theory experts! A truly bizarre and unedifying period of economic history.

My PA has just gone there in holiday 😯 I told her to take cash and $s as the banks are probably going to close and capital controls really need to be put in place fast.

Greece should never have been allowed in to the Euro in the first place.

Which countries should have? How many fiddled the numbers (thing the main players) then and now?

Time bomb ticking.

The UK referendum is around the corner.

Forget? That was many many decades ago. Or should I bring up my 2xGrandfathers and Great Uncles deaths with my German friends?

As noted before, the absurd thing about the in/out referendum is that we don't know what we are voting in/put for? Europe has fundamental issues to address first. The only certainly is the current model cannot work. You either go for full monetary and fiscal union, or a free trade zone. The hybrid with a fixed exchange rate is doomed to fail. It has to, that is the way it has been designed.

So pretty pointless debate right now although watching the Tories self destruct on the topic yet again provides so temporary amusement. Politicians eh?

TMH Greek exit could lead to tighter fiscal regulations and a closer euro/Union. Would certainly be stronger for it IMO. A Greek exit could be the making of the euro.

Forget

TMH - euro referendum - well we do know that the EU project is for a superstate. This could be the last chance we get to vote on that. The days of it being a common market are long long gone.

Greek bank support extended by 3.5bn, general view is that will last to Monday or at most Tuesday

Apparently the ELA has been increased enough to keep the banks open until Monday.

So EU trying to turn the thumbscrews ahead of this weekends meetings.

It could go either way frankly - watch the markets

Europe should be working hard to help Greece adjust with the drachma, nationalised banks, capital controls etc. The country needs a different type of support not purely financial. This could be the making of EU politicians but I fear instead that they simply do not have the foresight or the patience/will

A bloody mess

Two, three-tier Europe is my guess. Either that or armed conflict in our children's generation, another glorious legacy of our generation.....

jambalaya - Member

Greek bank support extended by 3.5bn, general view is that will last to Monday or at most Tuesday

A drop in the ocean. 😆

Free money is goood!

teamhurtmore - Member

Two, three-tier Europe is my guess.

errr ... haven't they learned?

Either that or armed conflict in our children's generation, another glorious legacy of our generation.....

You mean Greece is going to invade? 😯

Don't forget to buy the wider market once Greece does go.

There's a wall of money waiting to be invested once this finally gets sorted.

As for Greece .... the uncontrolled default will, as we know, lead to rampant inflation and the seizing of funds of anyone silly enough to still have money in the country.... It will still be feel like the austerity they have had. In fact it will probably be worse and it will get very very ugly.

So no.... I'm not so sure that if Greece goes others will follow.

Anyway the can will get kicked down the road .... time heals all

Good to see that at the same time the ELA was being approved, the Greek PM was working hard for a solution by slagging off the EU in Russia. Complete joke, it's almost like he wants to ruin his country.

Greece should never have been allowed in to the Euro in the first place.

Everybody knew this at the time. They weren't on their own there either. The name that is notable by its absense in all this is those bastions of probity and good practice - Goldman Sachs - who were employed by the Greek government, and did an admirable job of, cooking the books on their behalf. Hiding the debts off the balance sheet, and generally making it all look kosher, when it was anything but!

But the fact that they hoodwinked the EU so easily, and to such an enormous degree, tells you all you need to know about the Euro project. Its a political project. Its entirely idealogically driven. And they're not too bothered about owt else. Certainly not in checking too closely whether the sums add up. Makes you wonder what else is lurking around the corner, presently undiscoverd, or being covered up for as long as possible for political reasons.

The reason they're terrified of a Greek default is that it will trigger all manner of skeletons emerging from closets, and the whole fundamentaly flawed project will unravel wih god-only-knows what consequences. The Greeks know this. Hence the constant Mexican stand offs

OK i understand why they will leave the Euro, but why will they be forced out of the EU ?

andyfla - Member

OK i understand why they will leave the Euro, but why will they be forced out of the EU ?

Aha ... perhaps the club rules?

There's a wall of money waiting to be invested once this finally gets sorted.

I am sure ISIS would invest in Greece.

You mean Greece is going to invade?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/03/is-grexit-a-threat-to-greeces-security/

More like Turkey.

If all goes tats up will Greeks be the butt of jokes?

Reminds me of Father Ted

I blame the Greeks they invented *******

[img] [/img]

😆

Dread to think what Russia will ask for in return eg military installations on the border etc

Russia wouldnt/couldnt afford the amount of money that Greece would need annually?

So its a non starter

The Russian state doesn't. Officially. But Putin and chums would quite like a handy, already corrupt, and suitably opaque European national banking system to keep all their loot in. That used to be Cyprus. Greece would be ideal.

Mediterranean ports?

Yes of course, the Russians will demand that Greece hands over their Mediterranean ports to them. Presumably so that they can launch a seaborne invasion of Western Europe from the south, crafty ****ers.

Russia hasn't but the BRICS bank has and it would be one up on the IMF.

Yes of course, the Russians will demand that Greece hands over their Mediterranean ports to them. Presumably so that they can launch a seaborne invasion of Western Europe from the south, crafty ****ers.

I thought the Chinese were invading from the South, planning on meeting Putin and Co half way?

The BRICS would need something major in return for sinking money into the hole that is called Greece.

The Chinese were going to buy some Greek ports and the current government cancelled the deal.

OK i understand why they will leave the Euro, but why will they be forced out of the EU ?

No reason - that's just scaremongering by the idiot Martin Schultz - the same idiot who was complaining yesterday about Eurosceptics scaremongering about immigrants.

This could be the making of EU politicians but I fear instead that they simply do not have the foresight or the patience/will

Or the intelligence. Look at the EU finmins - Ireland - ex-teacher Michael Noonan, Holland - CV fiddler Dijsselbloem. Compared with Varoufakis and Tsakolotos.