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EFTA membership might be a better bet than full EU membership.
It would allow a lot of the close cooperation with the EU but being outside the full customs union could make maintaining trade and free movement with England easier.
I wonder why the UK government refused to ask?
The Spanish told them not to?
What question would they ask? What alignment scenario would they put to the EU? Would you accept the UK government negotiating of behalf of a future iS and without the consent of the yet to be elected iS government?
😴😴😴😴😴😴
New Calmac ferries contract going to Turkey.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/19986756.embarrassment-two-calmac-ferries-built-turkey/
New Calmac ferries contract going to Turkey.
Seems Ferguson didn't get to the bidding stage, so couldn't manage the specification.
What would you have preferred to happen?
Ferguson weren’t allowed to bid as they’re severely behind time and cost for two orders already, bit of a doomed future for them I believe since getting out of nationalisation will be a struggle
Argee - I'm aware, just curious what the OP thinks
There’s no money in commercial shipbuilding - it simply comes down to the efficiency of how quickly you can weld metres of metal. There seems to be a romantic nostalgia for something that is dirty, hard work. Don’t confuse building ferries with warships - it’s a bit chalk and cheese.
The Ferguson Marine ferry fiasco is just a classic case of why you don’t want civil servants running businesses - they dither, delay and prevaricate, make decisions by committee and don’t understand that all that extra time waiting just adds cost - it’s the same reason why big government projects almost always go over budget. Unionists saying this is an ‘SNP’ issue better not go looking at MOD’s record.
Part of the issue is that because the scots government is forbidden from borrowing money they cannot invest in the shipyards to any significant amount.
Whether the shipyard would be more viable with more investment I do not know
Its a bit damned if you do damned if you don't for the Scots government. Make ferguson the preferred bidder then they will get slated for not using the cheapest / quickest. Send the order to cheapest / quickest then they will get slated for not keeping the order in Scotland
To me this is just another example of how independence would be better as then the scots government could actually borrow to invest in the shipyards.
I do not know enough about the situation tho to be at all sure tho
Not able to borrow? They have enough cash to give Ferguson marine multimillion pound loans.
"The committee was "extremely concerned" that despite the spiralling costs and delays, the Scottish government provided a multi-million pound loan facility to FMEL - without communicating with CMAL or Transport Scotland . "
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55234240
What would I suggest? For a start I would simplfy the process. There are 4 different organisations involved. The SNP Govt, Transport Scotland. CMAL, and the end user Calmac. Too many cooks etc.
Design? Why make it dual fuel. Green virtue signalling. In the big picture two ferries running between windswept open ports are not causing huge pollution. I have read that the LPG fuekl would be trucked from the south of England and requires modications of the ports the vessels use for storage etc. Dual fuel ships are obviously more complicated and expensive to buils.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51114275
"Since the SNP took power in 2007, the rate at which new vessels are produced has more than halved. The fleet replacement rate has also suffered dramatically. Between 1993 and 2007 a vessel was replaced every 14 months – with the SNP in power, only every 37 months is a vessel replaced. Ferries have a design life of around 25 years. Pre-SNP, the entire fleet would be replaced in 36 years. That is too slow. But it is faster than the current rate – 87 years, under the SNP’s management. "
https://thinkscotland.org/2021/04/the-calmac-ferry-scandal-is-it-more-than-snp-incompetence/
Anyway. It isn't up to me to provide the answers. Just pointing out that the SNP have been in govt in Scotland for 14 years. This is their problem. They can't point the finger anywhere else.
Think Scotland is hardly an unbiased source
And yes - borrow to invest is beyond the scottish governments abilities
IRC
Now grant that I do not know much about this situation at all but what would you have the scottish government withdraw funds from to put more into ferries? Because this is the bottomline. The scots government have a fixed budget. Spending more in one area means less in others. the nhs is over 50% of their spend IIRC
Well I wouldn't have started from here. I would have them spend the money they spend more wisely. In the case of ferries simplfiy procedure. Build simpler designs. No duel fuel. Have the design finished before the build starts.
Major design changes being made more than 5 yearsafter thestart of building.
Major design changes being made more than 5 yearsafter thestart of building.
That is stupid. No doubt at all
I would have them spend the money they spend more wisely.
so what to be cut then?
The Ferguson Marine ferry fiasco is just a classic case of why you don’t want civil servants running businesses – they dither, delay and prevaricate, make decisions by committee and don’t understand that all that extra time waiting just adds cost – it’s the same reason why big government projects almost always go over budget.
Doesn’t really make sense as the government took it on as an option of last resort, they have been keeping it open to fulfil thf orders already there, I’d maybe ask what Clyde blowers did in their time in charge and how they managed the workbook they bid for.
Seems the SNP agree with me now. 14 years late but they are getting there.
Paywalled but a quote from the paper version is
" Ministers are believed to favour a simpler more accountable governance process for the service and ferries built in Scotland to simpler more standard designs."
If Scotland do get independence then I hope there’s a review of how the hell rangers get so many penalties 😡
Freedom!!!!
Yep here we go again;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-61785553
As someone with with Scottish dad and English mum I'm looking forward to my new Scottish Passport sometime in the next 10-20 years. I don't see this being a quick process!
Here we go.
I'm looking forward to my Welsh passport in 15 years too.
Yay, Ive got a scottish mum too!
I’m looking forward to my Welsh passport in 15 years too.
Yay, Ive got a scottish mum too!
Dammit I'm English with English parents...<wanders off muttering under breath>
Supporters of the Union have accused the Scottish government of being obsessed with independence
Erm....yeah?
Personally I'm looking forward to Scottish Independence. That way we'll be able to drive to a decent country that's not this shithole
As someone with with Scottish dad and English mum I’m looking forward to my new Scottish Passport sometime in the next 10-20 years. I don’t see this being a quick process!
Move here before the vote.
Meh
Within ten years we’ll be holding a vote on rejoining the uk, in much the same way as the rest of the uk will be voting to rejoin Europe
I personally think this country has bigger issues to be worried about than independence
I personally think this country has bigger issues to be worried about than independence
No mate it'll solve everything, it's just those damn English Tories holding you back...
I personally think this country has bigger issues to be worried about than independence
Absolutely. And if voters in England hadn't voted the way that they had over the last decade then independence would be on the back burner, and pressure would be on the UK government to sort out those bigger issues. As it stands, Scotland is just being told to shut up and put up with whatever we back south of the border.
Don't worry. Indyref 2 won't be happening next year. The power to call it isn't devolved. Despite the dozens of times we have been told it's just round the corner.
As it stands, Scotland is just being told to shut up and put up with whatever we back south of the border.
To be fair, so is everyone else.
The power to call it isn’t devolved.
There we go... shut up and put up with what the English vote for. Every single MSP could back a referendum on independence, and be elected on that mandate, and still the UK government would just say "What mandate?! You don't have a mandate down here".
To be fair, so is everyone else.
Not everyone. A majority* of voters in England keep backing the path we're on.
*or very nearly... 2016 GE... 47.2% voted Conservative... 2% BP.
I think the timing is great. Thinking there are bigger issues to sort out is a red herring to divert attention, no big issues will be sorted by the current crop of Tories.
As a country we are being lied to on a daily basis by a government that cannot see beyond tomorrow. Indy shines a spotlight on the inadequacies of the government and that in itself is good.
I was born in Scotland but live in Cumbria, when my daughter completes school I will be looking to move north and would welcome an independent Scotland.
As a country we are being lied to on a daily basis by a government that cannot see beyond tomorrow. Indy shines a spotlight on the inadequacies of the government and that in itself is good.
This is a good point
Yeh, I'll park this in "believe it when i see it"
Could just be about internal Pro Indy politics rather about actually making it happen.
*or very nearly… 2016 GE… 47.2% voted Conservative… 2% BP.
That should have been 2019 by the way…
2015 GE… 40.9% Conservative… 14.1% UKIP.
Just a question - what happens when regions in Scotland face the same problem with an independent Scotland that Scotland does WRT to the UK? The vast majority of Scotland's population is clustered around Glasgow, Edinburgh, Dundee and Aberdeen - will this not also result in feelings of under-representation in the Borders, Islands and Highlands? When do we stop sub-dividing?
will this not also result in feelings of under-representation in the Borders, Islands and Highlands? When do we stop sub-dividing?
It already does, certainly for those in the north isles and probably many other non central belt areas.
Bojo's actions have been the biggest aid towards more people wanting to vote for independence. I voted no last time, I'm not saying I'd necessarily vote yes at the next opportunity, but the last few years has given me more pause for thought.
A majority* of voters in England
But not when you look at parts of the UK.
Sturgeon has to get a vote in some form soon or the internal pressures in the party will split it and she will be out on her ear.
16 year olds get to vote in this one,
as they did in the last one as do EU citizens. I suspect the EU citizen vote might be a critical one and one where there is a lot of switching sides.
Absolutely. And if voters in England hadn’t voted the way that they had over the last decade then independence would be on the back burner, and pressure would be on the UK government to sort out those bigger issues. As it stands, Scotland is just being told to shut up and put up with whatever we back south of the border.
Yep, and I'm a YES.
It is the fault of us down here, sorry. The only hope I can see is a change of UK government that works with the Scottish government on a referendum that includes a change to a federal system for the UK nations, along side independence as options.
Ultimately, we've had a series of UK wide votes where voters in most of the English regions have given little to no consideration to how their vote effects other nations and regions within the UK. If things continue that way, it will push people away from the union unless it faces serious reforms.
More carrots from Sturgeon
Despite the dozens of times we have been told it’s just round the corner.
Given the utter mess that Brexit* made politically to the parties in the years after the vote, i can't imagine anyone sane would want to launch into an Indy vote. The SNP making strident calls for independence while being in the very convenient position to be able to manage precisely NIL to achieve it seems like the way forward for them.
*I'm not saying the SNP would make as much a hash as the Tories, anyone with half a brain can avoid the more obvious elephant traps, but be careful what you wish for seems to be good advice here. The SNP itself is loose and somewhat argumentative conglomerate of right and left wing held together by the one cause, what happens to the party if independence comes along and it ceases to be united under that banner?
Then people vote for whatever parties form in the new, democratic iScotland. As it will have PR, every party will have some influence in shaping the future.
Eventually we get a realignment of all parties in scotland but the SNP would split for sure
The fundamentalist parts of the SNP and the wider movement are impatient and further losing patience. Sturgeon will not be able to hold them together if she doesn't organise a vote in the next 18 months. Cards are being played close to the chest but she and the rest of the leadership must have some pathway in mind if Westminster plays hardball.
As for a federal solution? It would be my preferred solution but I think its too late. Brexit scuppered that.
Yep, Perhaps timely to remind people that many who currently vote SNP actually hold their noses while doing so as they see it only as a means to a common end; iScotland. If/once achieved, the glue will unstick to some degree and they may well struggle to maintain their current dominance of Scottish politics.
Great, more Customs bollox to deal with at work then, well, if they're able to join the EU that is. Or will there be a Scottish Protocol ?
Got to love all this Nationalism stuff.
Bring it on. 100% yes for me. It's time.
Why am I yes, In no particular order and not exhaustive, The Rwanda decision, Brexit, the potential breaking of the NI protocol. Johnson, what actually is there to sway a remain vote?
Perhaps timely to remind people that many who currently vote SNP actually hold their noses while doing so as they see it only as a means to a common end; iScotland. If/once achieved, the glue will unstick to some degree and they may well struggle to maintain their current dominance of Scottish politics.
Eventually we get a realignment of all parties in scotland but the SNP would split for sure
Which is exactly why Sturgeon has to keep stringing the donkeys along. Keep the grievance high and progress low.
Great, more Customs bollox to deal with at work then
Yeah this could be a real problem. Even without EU membership iS would be dependent on a suitable trade deal with rUK and this could be a huge source of friction.
what actually is there to sway a remain vote?
That the practicalities of day to day life are much easier if you are part of a large bloc with free movement of goods and services. It'd be completely different if iS were guaranteed a place in the EU, but it's not.
If the independence vote happens, and the vote goes against staying in the UK... two of the current home nations will be within, or operate as near as damn it as if they are in, the customs union and the single market that encompass most of Europe... neither will need to be EU members, or part of an EU member, to get that... just the willingness to join in. The question will be all about England and Wales making practical steps to keep dealing with them and the rest of Europe in a sensible cooperative fashion... that's not up to the people of Scotland, the voters of Scotland, or the politicians of Scotland... it's down to us South of the border to decide to join in, rather than turn away.
A trade deal with rUK might only be a problem if Scotland was part of the EU. rUK has shown little interest in creating any incoming trade barriers
EDIT: Kelvin makes a good point about a customs union with the EU. Either way the UK would be inclined to bend
Either way the UK would be inclined to bend
Obviously, it absolutely would not if we were in that situation right now... but it'll be years away... and, sadly, some lessons might be learnt the hard way in the UK over the next few years... and our political landscape might have shifted a bit. It's not a huge jump towards the Brexit that the Brexit campaigners were pushing hard just 7 years ago... when Norway and Switzerland, with their close trading relationships and more arms length political situations, were held up as ideals rather than scare stories. Adding into that a Customs Unions style arrangement just requires counting... how much do our independent trade deals around the world bring us compared to the deals we'd have with a shared external border with Ireland, Scotland, Monaco, the UK Sovereign Bases on Cyprus, all the rest of Cyprus, France, Germany... [fill in the list yourselves]
the customs union and the single market that encompass most of Europe… neither will need to be EU members, or part of an EU member, to get that… just the willingness to join in
Good point, yes.
Why am I yes, In no particular order and not exhaustive, The Rwanda decision, Brexit, the potential breaking of the NI protocol. Johnson, what actually is there to sway a remain vote?
General dislike of everything the government does at the moment aside, Brexit's surely been a bit of a gamechanger, but only at a very superficial level surely?
Yes it could be a pathway to locally reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU/EEA.
But surely after those negotiations no ones going to fall for "that's just project fear" again? Last time the UK government was bending over backwards to appear reasonable during the independence referendum, beyond the occasional reality checking response (e.g. no, you can't credibly keep using the pound unilaterally unless you want to be subject to the whims of rUK monetary policies). If Scotland voted leave then surely that changes and Westminster switches to looking after rUK's interests and whatever Sturgeon puts in her White Papers this week will be no more credible than Davis/Gove/Johnsons fantasies of a good deal pre-Brexit?
Also a fairly big deal was made over military spending/Trident last time. I remember pointing out in the thread last time that someone has to send the fast jets out to intercept Russians over the North sea and was told I was being daft and war's had moved on etc etc. That's changed a bit! So iSoctland is still going to have to meet it's NATO targets however it choses it spend it.
that’s not up to the people of Scotland, the voters of Scotland, or the politicians of Scotland… it’s down to us South of the border to decide to join in, rather than turn away.
Fine in theory, but then it becomes Scotlands problem to check all goods at the border as they become an EU border.
There's nothing to stop a UK manufacturer making products that meet the EU and rUK requirements (unless they somehow diverge in a way that makes meeting them exclusive). But there'd be no requirement, which is the difficult part. That's the issue with NI, I doubt little if anything going back and forth from Holly Head fails to meet the pre Brexit EU requirements, but its the fact it's not necessarily required to that causes all the problems.
At this point I don't really care over the result anymore, I despise the current government, and I'm not Scottish. I'm not convinced that like Brexit that everyone won't be worse off after a leave result, but the world won't end.
what actually is there to sway a remain vote?
That you don't fix a rudderless ship by using the wood to fix it to form a liferaft, hoping that what broke it in the first place doesn't kill you next. You replace the bloody rudder.
Last time the UK government was bending over backwards to appear reasonable
How likely does "devo max" look now? I think many "NO" voters from last time will be far more sceptical of anything said by the UK government next time.
Fine in theory, but then it becomes Scotlands problem to check all goods at the border as they become an EU border.
Yup, they'll be in a bigger market, we'll be an even smaller market, and supply chains and sales channels will be turned upside down and reshaped. It'll be a right mess. If that's what we choose down here. That's our choice to make though. We can be as difficult for Scotland as we have chosen to be with all the other countries of Europe. That'll be our choice. But it's years away. We might have learnt a few things by then, you never know.
I also think it's in the SNP's interests to have the vote before Johnson gets replaced with someone potentially much more competent, sensible and reasonable; likely from a different party.
How likely does “devo max” look now?
Who knows? Maybe that'll be the result this time 🤷♂️
But the offer shows the notable difference between the two campaigns.
Indyref the no campaign was essentially a Westminster one, and Westminster has to represent Scottish voters until they decide to leave.
Whereas the EU27 were prepared to discuss and present their opinion of what Brexit looked like excluding the uK.
I'd imagine a No campaign run entirely by English, Welsh and Irish MP's telling Scotland that if it voted yes they would close the border unless Scotland agreed to accept rUK rules would play very differently. As the EU kept saying, you cant have your cake and eat it, you can't have frictionless trade with the EU, and with rUK, because at least the current Westminster government seems determined to have a bonfire of regulations.
Yup, they’ll be in a bigger market,
They'll have the option to join a bigger market, that they're geographically separated from by the sea. Vs the one they have a very frictionless border with.
Sounds awfully like the promises made about transatlantic trade deals. And the USA was never going to accept UK (EU) standards just as the rUK is never going to accept Scotland dictating (EU) standards. However "reasonable" any party want's to be.
Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and quickly. The killer is that the obvious answer to currency is use the euro and I am not sure the SNP will be able to sell that to the public.
A good answer on money is needed
I’d imagine a No campaign run entirely by English, Welsh and Irish MP’s
I don't think you'll get a lot of English/Welsh solidarity in that respect.
Sounds awfully like the promises made about transatlantic trade deals.
Well, apart from Scotland being geographically close to Ireland, NI, Netherlands, Norway etc… that already have arrangements to reduce frictions at borders… and would welcome Scotland into those arrangements… so nothing like the USA. Don’t get me wrong, independence could carry a very high cost for Scotland if England decided to stick to its pretty much unique in Europe anti single market and anti customs union position… but that would be the choice of people/voters/politicians this side of the border… and our choices might be informed by events that occur here between now and and any possible separation. We have a way of solving this, if the English choose it, when/if the time comes.
The National up there is a rag. I should know, my father in law provides his old copies for me to light the stove, and I raise an eyebrow at the slant of the thing as I tear it up.
That said bring on Scottish Independence. I'm all for it. English and Scottish politics are now so fundamentally different it needs to happen.
Irish re-unification is close also.
I don’t think you’ll get a lot of English/Welsh solidarity in that respect.
Depends how big a carrot/stick gets deployed I suppose.
If it came to it then:
a) Boris would presumably only need a rUK Westminster majority to get a deal agreed.
b) Romantic notions of Celtic solidarity aside, it's not in their short term self interest to side with an iScotland they don't share a land border with.
c) There's no long term payback for them, Scotland won't be at the table when iWales is in future negotiations with rUK.
d) Boris would be negotiating with his own MP's, how closely aligned is a Welsh Tory MP with general anti Tory sentiment, barely to not at all?
molgrips
Full MemberI also think it’s in the SNP’s interests to have the vote before Johnson gets replaced with someone potentially much more competent, sensible and reasonable; likely from a different party.
Without a doubt. But, this is more or less a manifestation of the divergence of scottish and westminster politics. Basically Johnston is bad weather. But Johnston and May and Cameron are bad climate. It's not just Johnston, it's now 12 years not just of Tory misrule to various degrees but no real likelihood of change.
One major problem for the indy campaign, is that previously, Yes leaned heavily on the idea that the rUK would do the sensible things, and cooperate with scotland because it's in their joint interest. Brexit's proved that the rUK will happily cut off its own cock as long as someone else gets splashed with blood. This is kinda problematic. Ironically having a government that's in a state of absolute dishonesty, self-harm and dysfunction, and having that largely accepted, is also an incredibly strong argument for not leaving
We may have waited til we're too far down the plughole to get out. Anyone in Scotland that isn't now far more negative about the UK than they were in 2014 is a halfwit frankly but the same goes for anyone that's not also more negative about independence.
and would welcome Scotland into those arrangements…
The same was said of the USA.
We have a way of solving this, if the English choose it, when/if the time comes.
The same was said of the EU.
It's not hypothetical, it's what's playing out in NI right now. And Boris seems to be doubling down on his position.
The only unknown is how a different colour Westminster government would approach it as this is likely to drag on into the next parliament. And I can't see Brexit being rowed back quickly, I suspect Boris's zeal for deregulation will make that impossible. Which means for at least a few decades there would need to be a decision which way do iScotland want to trade freely, because the EU isn't going to accept an open border to rUK, and rUK doesn't look like it'll want to re-adopt a position close to the EU.
So it's not an "English" decision to have an open border. We could open it and say we'll trade freely, but it'll be Scotland unable to accept those terms unless we re-harmonize with the EU.
Ironically having a government that’s in a state of absolute dishonesty, self-harm and dysfunction, and having that largely accepted, is also an incredibly strong argument for not leaving
We may have waited til we’re too far down the plughole to get out. Anyone in Scotland that isn’t now far more negative about the UK than they were in 2014 is a halfwit frankly but the same goes for anyone that’s not also more negative about independence.
Northwind sums it up for me.
Scotland would be welcomed back into the EU and quickly. The killer is that the obvious answer to currency is use the euro and I am not sure the SNP will be able to sell that to the public.
A good answer on money is needed
That's very optimistic. Why wouldn't Scotland have to follow the rules laid out to join? It'd need a currency it controlled to peg to the Euro before adopting it for a start. Would Spain risk encouraging Catalonian independence?
Re-joining the EU sadly isn't realistic for either the UK or an independent Scotland. The good deal we had is gone and it'll be hard to sell an obviously worse one. It's also likely that the remaining UK would have a Tory government who would find political capital in being as awkward as possible for any trade deals and would likely impose a hard border with Scotland under the pretence of stopping illegal immigration. The disruption would be far worse than brexit as the EU had some goodwill towards us.
Wales is working on proposals for a new devolution settlement - Welsh Labout policy is to look towards this. Having the second largest country in the Union leave it pulls the rug out from under that in a major way, making England an even bigger dominant part (unless it decides to break into constitutional bits, which does not appear likely). By contrast, if Scotland were to push for devo max, that would assist the project. The pressure from the other devolved nations is likely to be for that, so as not to be left even more exposed themselves.
Would Spain risk encouraging Catalonian independence?
Post brexit it is a non issue. Its clear Scotland would be welcomed back and there are no insurmountable issues
Wales is working on proposals for a new devolution settlement – Welsh Labout policy is to look towards this.
Scottish labour need a coherent position on the constitution. At the moment its " the precious union" and "SNP" baaaaaaaaad
rUK doesn’t look like it’ll want to re-adopt a position close to the EU.
As I said, that position is down to voters south of the border, and the people we elect.
So it’s not an “English” decision to have an open border.
It is entirely an “English” decision to be outside shared arrangements that are adopted across Europe (not just within the EU), and which an independent Scotland is likely to be a party to (if it happens) whether it is an EU member or not.
Post brexit it is a non issue. Its clear Scotland would be welcomed back and there are no insurmountable issues
The Spanish diplomat who suggested that was immediately sacked. The issues might not be completely insurmountable but they are major. The finances including currency and deficit, and a land border with a country outside of the EU who the EU don't trust to even follow the rules it agrees to.
Scottish Labour are too busy recruiting from the bowler-hatted, sash-wearing brigade to appear to be more ‘inclusive’ to be worrying about trivial things like independence.
Re-joining the EU sadly isn’t realistic for either the UK or an independent Scotland. The good deal we had is gone and it’ll be hard to sell an obviously worse one.
"Obviously worse" being subjective.
Obviously worse than what we had before? Yes.
Obviously worse than what we have now? Not really.
In the current climate i wouldn't be pushing rejoining the EU as being one of the keynote things, there are so many moving parts to that question with recent events. It's definitely part of the plan to request membership, but it wouldn't be plan A at this time, which the SNP know pretty well anyway.
It's been weird the amount of negativity i've heard over the last month or so regarding independence, yes you always get the loyalist/true blues talking who are No all day long, but i do hear a lot of grumblings from those who could be Yes due to the Scottish Government just now, it is weird, the more time the SNP have in a position of strength with the Greens the more it can affect the Indy vote.
In the current climate i wouldn’t be pushing rejoining the EU as being one of the keynote things, there are so many moving parts to that question with recent events. It’s definitely part of the plan to request membership, but it wouldn’t be plan A at this time, which the SNP know pretty well anyway.
Given the outcomes of the 2014 and 2016 referenda, I'd imagine rejoining the EU to be a strongly desired goal of many indy-curious Scots. I'd far rather that the Scottish Government had some degree of reassurance from the EU regarding membership criteria and how to realistically achieve same before the electorate is asked to leave our current union. Akin to having an EU shaped life raft nearby before leaping off the sinking UK.
I would support independence for Scotland in any circumstances. Even if I have to sook it through a clarty straw. Howver in the situation you describe @downshep would'nt it be a good idea to get off the sinking ship even if the life raft is'nt particularly nearby.
It is entirely an “English” decision to be outside shared arrangements that are adopted across Europe (not just within the EU), and which an independent Scotland is likely to be a party to (if it happens) whether it is an EU member or not.
Yes, but can you see that happening in the short to medium term? The problem is fundamentally that the UK is trying to trade with other markets and the EU won't accept frictionless trade with countries that won't align themselves with it. Neither is going to change it's stance and no party is going to call for a Brentry(?) referendum for decades, no one wins and it would probably tank the economy/GBP again in the short term with more uncertainty, and that's if the EU decides it even want's to risk having a UK that keeps flip-flopping in and out.
It's going to take some global event like the next financial crisis in another 20 years and then if the UK looks worse than the EU after that then maybe people will have an appetite to join it again. But this far out that's a coin toss. As it is, all Boris has to do is point at vaccines and blame EU bureaucracy for why we got them so far ahead of everyone else and he'll get his 52% again.
But then I'm just a pessimistic remoaner who'd quite like to be proved wrong and have some economic good news for the country for once.
Telegraph: After relaunching her case for Scottish independence this week – with speeches, a 72-page economic dossier and the promise of a referendum next year – Nicola Sturgeon had a quick something to add. She did not, she said, intend to dwell on the hard border she plans to erect with England. She’d deal with the “implications of Brexit” another day.
It’s easy to see why she’s not keen to discuss it. Most of Scotland’s imports and exports cross over the border with England, so what impact would it have subjecting all of them to checks, tariffs and customs controls? The SNP often talks about the harm inflicted by Brexit, but Scotland’s trade with England vastly outweighs its dealings with Europe. So “Scexit”, as some Unionists have taken to calling it, would be “Brexit times 10”.
This phrase is from one of Sturgeon’s own economic advisers – and he makes an important point. Brexit has transformed the equation. Not even the most fervent nationalist can now deny that separation would impose massive and permanent economic disruption, a cost far greater than had both countries been EU members. An independent Scotland would need to somehow put itself on a path of fast economic growth. How to do this if it chooses EU membership and massive trade friction with England?
It’s not that Scotland can’t be independent: it’s a rich, ingenious and confident country that could stand proudly on the world stage. Voters certainly are willing to pay a price for greater sovereignty, as Brexit demonstrated. But the price of separation, now, would be sado-austerity on a scale few countries have ever attempted.
Sturgeon leads a 120,000-strong brigade of party members (parts of my family included) anxious for another referendum. They need to believe that the great battle is just around the corner, that their date with destiny awaits. That’s why she has set aside £20 million for a referendum next year. But under devolution rules, the UK Government needs to agree, and it won’t. So her main hope is to sue, persuading the Supreme Court to back a referendum billed as being “advisory” – and, ergo, not a referendum. It’s a rather long shot.
But let’s say she is granted her referendum: what then? She can talk (as she has done this week) about successful small countries. But none of them has Scotland’s economics. Sturgeon’s own officials calculate that state spending amounted to 61 per cent of GDP last year – making it one of the biggest governments, if not the biggest, in the world in relation to the size of the country. And, yes, the pandemic distorts things. But even beforehand, Scots were enjoying Swedish-style public spending while paying normal British levels of tax thanks to the regular Union dividend.
Let’s say an independent Scotland is accepted as an EU member. And let’s put aside some other pretty serious questions, like who pays the pensions and in which currency. Under the Maastricht rules, it would need to get the deficit down to 3 per cent of GDP (from 22 per cent last year). This would be possible, but devastating. The cuts required would be bigger than the post-crash austerity visited upon Greece, Ireland or Iceland. An independent Scotland could close every school, free every prisoner, disband the police force and still not come close to balancing its books.
When I was political editor of The Scotsman, I’d argue for Scotland to be given financial independence alongside devolution. There would, I’d argue, be an incentive to cut tax and grow the economy – far better than begging London for money and complaining when it wasn’t enough. But over time, it became clear what “fiscal autonomy” would mean: the kind of shock therapy that no country should be made to live through.
Had Scotland been brilliantly run under 15 years of SNP rule, Sturgeon may have a claim to be given complete control. But we’ve seen indefensible decay in schools with a widening attainment gap between rich and poor (closing this was supposed to be the “defining mission” of her government). Drug deaths have surged to the highest in Europe. I backed devolution on the ground that it would address such problems. Instead, it opened a debate about independence that went on to overshadow all else. Tory sleaze was eclipsed by SNP sleaze.
In which country, anywhere in the Western world, has the head of government been accused by a predecessor of conspiring to have him imprisoned by framing him so as to remove him as a political threat? Alex Salmond’s full case against Sturgeon is still unpublishable, owing to censorship edicts issued by Edinburgh courts. He was acquitted of attempted rape but what he did admit to in his time as First Minister makes Boris Johnson’s birthday cake session look like a nun’s tea party. A striking proportion of the SNP’s MPs have faced charges of embezzlement, anti-Semitism, sexual harassment and more.
Five minutes into Sturgeon’s speech this week, we had yet another one: Patrick Grady, the party’s chief whip, was suspended for inappropriate behaviour with a staffer. There are many good, even outstanding SNP politicians – including Sturgeon herself. I’d rank Kate Forbes, her 32-year-old finance minister, as one of the most impressive politicians in Britain. But as a team, they are beatable. Especially if their strategy is to run away from the main arguments and fall back upon “small is better” platitudes.
So the referendum demand is a bluff, an act of political theatre. Sturgeon had told friends after the last referendum that it would be political suicide to call another one until separation was backed by 60 per cent of voters. But that point never came. Even now, there’s a (slim) majority for the Union – and that’s after Brexit, an inflation crisis, a not-wildly-popular Etonian in No 10 and the partygate debacle. Polls show barely a third of Scots welcome her new timetable.
So Sturgeon is threatening a vote that most Scots don’t want with a case she can’t win and questions she can’t answer. But her job, now, is to brazen it out, to suspend disbelief. To keep her troops hopeful by demanding a new referendum. And to hope, perhaps above all else, that the Tories don’t say “yes”.