Scotland Indyref 2

andykirk - Member
If the SNP lose the next referendum does that mean the SNP will have to disband? And then we won't have to go through all this stupidity for a 3rd time in 2024?...

The SNP may very well disintegrate if they lose this one, I think it unlikely, but they would be replaced. The independence movement is bigger than the SNP and they know it.

Independence movements have been bubbling along in Scotland since 1707, and more formally for over 120 years.

We will never stop.

epicyclo - Member
Independence movements have been bubbling along in Scotland since 1707, and more formally for over 120 years.

We will never stop.

120 years? 😆

Are you sure you want to discredit Robert the Bruce during his fight from the period 1296–1328? 😆

Everyone stops at one point or another ...

chewkw - Member
120 years?

Are you sure you want to discredit Robert the Bruce during his fight from the period 1296–1328?

The 120 years refers to the Scots organising openly instead of covertly.

andykirk - many sensible folk have called for a second eu rereendum.

If the SNP lose this one it will be a time of real soul searching for them. Interestingly tho the same people who vote SNP for holyrood are not identical to those who voted yes - there is a large group of SNP voters who voted NO and OUT

The more I think about it the more I love WTO option with the EU. Clean and simple and we move on to focus elsewhere. All the tariffs/taxes go to NHS.

Also, why isn't someone with sense calling for a UK referendum on whether or not we should have a second referendum on Brexit with a sensible 60/40 margin or something similar to be required for change?

Because the people have spoken.

In more than one referendum! But what does that matter....

We will never stop.

Is one other few truths uttered by yS supporters. Bugger the consequences or the wishes of the people, self harm is more important

Still they are not alone. There is a global trend towards narrow-minded, insular, isolationist thinking that has a powerful and dangerous momentum. And we know who the losers in this will be

With the recent polls showing no appetite, and the post announcement polls apparently edging against, it'll be interesting to see where the Greens stand on their manifesto:
from [url= https://greens.scot/independence ]here.[/url]

The timing of the referendum should be determined by public appetite: Scotland should decide, when Scotland wants to decide.
In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register.

I must have missed that popular surge of feeling, anyone else?

I have a vain hope that maybe St Nic. is hoping that the majority of the people of Scotland have their wishes respected (at last), and tell her where to get off. Then she can relax a bit, take her eye off the independence ball and crack on with the day job?

The day job???

@thm
Day Job: Being first minister for Scotland
Concentrating on education, that sort of thing.
(I'm assuming here she gets turned back about having a vote, not kicked out yet)

On Topic, heres a gem of a headline from the ever reasonable National
[url= http://www.thenational.scot/politics/15153501.Cat_Boyd__Time_to_fight_on_our_feet_or_we___ll_die_on_our_knees/ ]Cat Boyd: Time to fight on our feet or we’ll die on our knees[/url]

Thats a glorious inclusive vision of loveliness right there.
Can't imagine what the SNP would make of a headline like that in the "Yoon" press?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39265997 🙂

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/15/theresa-may-dragging-uk-under-scotland-must-cut-rope

I'd like to understand Mays "logic"

How can it be that the UK must leave one union the EU no matter it will impoverish the country and no matter if we get no deal yet if Scotland leaves the UK but remains in the EU that would be a disaster for Scotland - the same imperatives that are taking England out of the EU drive Scotland to leave the UK

May said
"In her speech to the Scottish Conservatives’ spring conference, Theresa May observed that “one of the driving forces behind the union’s creation was the remorseless logic that greater economic strength and security come from being united”" surely we should be stayng in the EU then?

Yon unionists really need to step back on the pontificating. 😆

Love how they still view themselves of the guardians of progressive society. Pass the sick bag ffs..

Same with epic, chill out on the freedom patter. It's ****ing ridiculous. 120 years of resistance. Perhaps by 2 men and a dug. But no body really gave a **** about it till the last 10 years. Take a reality check for **** sake. 😆

Simple: [b]two completely different types of Union. [/b]Only one can - by design, execution and result - work, and therefore survive

Perhaps a "basic understanding" of the issues involved should be required before people are allowed to get involved !! 😉

seosamh77 #

Scottish nationalism has risen and fallen over the years but it started to become mainstream in the 70s hand has been a constant presence in scottish politics since then

Here is a wee point for all those obsessing about the supposed 10 billion deficit. Scotlands share of the UK wide assets is 100 - 150 billion. Our share of the military assets is 8 billion worth. Of that we don't need most of it so if we sell our share in the aircraft carriers and other big ships plus a few other asetts like hinkley to rUK the iScotland has no deficit the first year.

tjagain,
Not defending May and/or brexit here (or anywhere).
My argument against indy is that 2 wrongs don't make a right.

Brexit is a massive faux pas for the UK, but the worst economic predictions of the brexit fallout don't look anywhere as bad as iScotlands balance sheet.

Out of the UK, out of the EU, potential hard borders in every direction, and a massive deficit. [N.B. not saying that [i]can't[/i] be done]

Thats not the social democratic fantasy land that the SNP are selling, and again no-one has owned up to who will pay the price (beyond "it'll be hard"). My guess for the people who will pay are the same people as always, the poor, the sick, the elderly.

If things go as badly with brexit as some suspect, and the UK becomes a right wingers wet dream, and the Scottish government can't protect us from the fall out, then thats the time to become independent, and we'll all come along singing.

Not now.

Far from majority though tj.

Any how my point is the freedom patter is a massive turn off.

Trouble with that line of action eat the pudding is that that would mean rejoining the EU not continueing with membership - this is why leaving the EU is both an opportunity for Scotland and a trap. Proclaiming independence before the UK leaves the EU is the best chance of staying in the EU and making that part of the independence deal easier.

What do you think of using the UK wide assets that scotland does not want or need to fund the first couple of years deficit? http://www.businessforscotland.com/independence-will-generate-a-109000000000-asset-windfall-for-scotland/

This show up the hypocricy of the tories very well
"who argued last summer that liberation from a union which restricted self-determination justified any risks, but will now counsel the Scots to keep a hold of nurse for fear of something even worse. "

seosamh77 - Member

Love how they still view themselves of the guardians of progressive society. Pass the sick bag ffs..

[img] [/img]

Having a quick look at the papers this morning and I don't think the Unionists are going to be able to count on the support of the press to the extent they could last time. During the last referendum the headlines in the Times and the Telegraph would more or less match up with The Scotsman's and The Daily Record's (the Record famous for allowing Better Together to take out a full page add on the front page to advertise The Vow).

Today the headlines look like they come from alternate realities. I guess this is going to be what drives a lot of the disagreement on this thread from now on. The English and Welsh are going to get their information from the English press while the Scots are going to get their information from the Scottish press. We won't be living in the same world anymore.

There is no way for Theresa May to come out ahead in this situation. The interests of middle England and Scotland are so diametrically opposed that it is impossible to do anything to appease one without pissing off the other. Now that they can no longer focus on Europe Jamba and his ilk will be putting enormous pressure on the Tories to start making the scrounging Scots pay their fair share. Massive budget cuts for Scotland will be the order of the day. At the very least there will be absolutely no new powers. There will probably be a reduction in powers. Hell, there may even be calls for abolishment of the Parliment. This is the only kind of rhetoric that will appease them.

Even in terms of the timing she can't win. A quick referendum undermines her negotiating stance while waiting only allows more young people, who are overwhelming Yes, to become old enough to vote. Meanwhile older voters, who are overwhelmingly No, are dying off (sorry, I don't want to sound harsh but I can't think of a euphemism for that).

There has been talk of the fact that there is growing Euroscepticism in Scotland but crucially not of an increase in support for Leave. The number of people who want to leave is quite small. What people want is for the EU's powers to be reduced. I would bet anything if you asked most people what powers they wanted reduced they wouldn't be able to tell you. I would imagine fisheries would be the most common answer, not a deal-breaker for the vast majority of Scots.

Providing they don't cock up the currency question (own currency pegged to either the Pound or the Euro or a basket that includes both) and that they make it about access to the Single Market rather than membership of the EU then I struggle to see how Yes doesn't win this time around.

tjagain,
c'mon its not "supposed".
It [i]is[/i] an estimate, but so is pretty much every other economic measure that exists (including the ones that say Greece has a smaller deficit than Scotland).

As someone put it on twitter, it's like saying
"Officer you can't accuse me of speeding, as speed can only me estimated not measured exactly". Try that and see how far you get.

In any case it's not worth discussing unless you also have a reasonable explanation of why Nic hasn't had her statisticians shot for bringing comfort to the enemy 🙂

To your other point (which I assume was joking?) I wonder why Greece didn't just sell a load of assets (Parthenon?) to cover it for a few years. Maybe you should tell them about your plan?

I'd like to understand Mays "logic"

[url= http://newsthump.com/2017/03/14/divisive-referendum-will-cause-huge-economic-uncertainty-says-woman-enacting-divisive-referendum-causing-huge-economic-uncertainty/ ]explained in simple terms[/url]

Wonder if the Unionists will remember the lessons of the Easter Uprising and the Irish declaration of Independence that followed? Ireland was never "given" independence, they declared it, the English government screwed up massively and turned a ambivalent Irish population against them.

tjagain,
I don't know if you had a look at that link I posted re: [url= http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/business-for-scotland-where-are-they-now.html ]Business for Scotland [/url] yesterday.

Not trolling, the evidence suggests that they appear to have been set up specifically for the period of the referendum, and have a suspiciously large number of people going off to stand for office with the SNP immediately after. (Including Michelle Thomson of all people)

eat the pudding - point missed. Scotland is entitled to a share of allthe UK asets. This includes the useless aircraft carriers etc. Selling our share in these to rUK would raise a lot of money - similar sums to this supposed deficit

according to the UK asset register 23 billion worth of UK assets are in Scotland but scotlands share is 100 billion plus - so somehow scotland has to get 75 billion plus transferred from rUK. Thst 7 years worth of deficit. Now some of those things that make up these assets we want - but much of them we don't. Aircraft carriers and subs for example - useless to iScotland so selling our share back to rUK will give iScotland a bucket full of cash.

What have I missed here?

Nice link eat the pudding - to an anti snp blog! Business for scotland is simply not a part of or a front for the SNP - of course it has members in common but to say business for scotland is an snp front is simply wrong nd shows a lack of understanding. there are many pro independence organisations - its just you don't get to hear about them in England or only in the context of the SNP

[quote=eat_the_pudding ]@thm
Day Job: Being first minister for Scotland
Concentrating on education, that sort of thing.
(I'm assuming here she gets turned back about having a vote, not kicked out yet)
On Topic, heres a gem of a headline from the ever reasonable National
Cat Boyd: Time to fight on our feet or we’ll die on our knees
Thats a glorious inclusive vision of loveliness right there.
Can't imagine what the SNP would make of a headline like that in the "Yoon" press?

I read the National for the first time the other day when I was waiting for someone in the pub

Total rag!

YGH - its is Johnson press is it not - what do you expect? Its simply the scotsman with a different editorial stance

May has the "trump" cards - deliver a free trade deal with suitable transition period

Over the past 24 hours, some common sense finally coming out of the SNP - the wind has changed direction again - and a softening in tone and demands re Europe. Recognising that canny folk see the obvious contradiction between independence (sic) and giving sovereignty to [s]Frankfurt[/s] Brussels, the latest line is that EFTA is in the best interests. Not surprisingly this follows the rise in Euro-scepticism illustrated in the latest Scottish Social Attitudes Survey.

Of course, EFTA is no panacea and only gives us part of what we should be looking for - so there you go Theresa, deliver a FT deal and you have delivered more than the SNP claim is now in Scotland's best interests. The SNP will look impotent then and we can all finally have some peace and people can get on with their lives/businesses.

STWers take note. Even the SNP realise joining the EU is not the way forward, too much Eurosceptism in Scotland plus the substabtial technical and timing hurdles of that process. SNP will now seek a Norway/Swiss EEA deal.

Nonsense Jamba - well overinterpreting what Sturgeon said. I guess once again your info is from the unionist press that made a huge meal out of a simple statement

YGH - its is Johnson press is it not - what do you expect? Its simply the scotsman with a different editorial stance

Its simply the scotsman with a different editorial stance

Could have sworn that we were told that the Scotsman was the best starting point for Scottish news just 30-40 pages back ! 😉 Or like Murrayfield, is the wind really swirling around?

[b]As a result, two in three (67%) of people in Scotland could now be said to be sceptical about the EU.[/b] This scepticism is far from being the preserve of those who voted to leave the EU. No less than 56% of those who said they voted to Remain in the EU said that Britain should seek to reduce the EU’s powers. [b]Only 9% would actually like the EU to become a more powerful institution[/b]*. So there must be some doubt about the strength of the commitment to the EU of many of those in Scotland who voted to Remain.

* a fundamental requirement if the € is to work ie, fiscal and political union, not just the folly of monetary union alone.

Be careful [s]what you wish for[/s] to check the direction of the wind 😉

Jambas - here's the source you need (BTW, that must be the shortest period of being ignored in STW history, you didn't even get the "blocked badge of honour"! Bad luck 😉 )

http://natcen.ac.uk/our-research/research/scottish-social-attitudes/

Ta Poly - should have checked. The national is really funny tho as it uses basically the same stories as the herald - just slants it pro independence not pro union. Very cynical movement from the herald group

Is THM answering me again? Odd chap

Aircraft carriers and subs for example - useless to iScotland so selling our share back to rUK will give iScotland a bucket full of cash.

Why would England be buying these back, they belong to the UK - not Scotland only ?

Define

seek to reduce the EU’s powers

TJ joining the EU is practcally impossible for at least 5 years post Indy. I know you thinks it's possible but the SNP don't agree. They do need another plan. EEA is a way to sidestep the Euro but you have the downside of "all the rules and regulations plus budget contributions but no influence / seat at the table"

No just pointing out your economies with the truth. good roll today...

I think there should be referendum in England about ejecting Scotland - I'm pretty sure many people are getting sick of these pathetic, whinging Scots...

[quote=eat_the_pudding ]

no-one has owned up to who will pay the price (beyond "it'll be hard"). My guess for the people who will pay are the same people as always, the poor, the sick, the elderly.

Well the obvious answer is taxation. However, no one really wants to say that.

My sister in law shared a video on Facebook recently extolling the strong social services etc in Holland and how wonderful it was and how she wanted to live there or for Scotland to be like that.

When I explained the taxation levels in Holland that were necessary to pay for the standard of living there, she quickly stated there was no way she would be interested in paying more tax.

TurnerGuy - Member
I think there should be referendum in England about ejecting Scotland - I'm pretty sure many people are getting sick of these pathetic, whinging Scots...

[img] [/img]

Jamba - more nonsense - do you actually read anything from the SNP? Or simply rely on nonsense from the right wing press? The SNP certainly believe its possible to continue in the EU and many influential folk agree it would be no issue

BruceWee - Member
Jamba and his ilk will be putting enormous pressure on the Tories to start making the scrounging Scots pay their fair share. Massive budget cuts for Scotland will be the order of the day

This is a key point, much is made about the finances under an Iscotland. But once this issue has passed(If defeated), the Tories will not live with a Scotland and a 15 billion deficit. Cuts will be passed down, harshly. And that's before we even start on the completion of the privatization project that the brexiteers will flow out with.. Sure it'll be a great NHS when we are all paying to see the GP etc... 😕

A bit of hysteria there. Yes. Point is though, that if this is going to go ahead, it's not just the SNP vision we need to consider. We need to consider the UK vision. Which will come from the tories.

Essentially, if this goes ahead, we're looking at battle lines of a tory vision v the SNP vision.

A wildly different dynamic from last time.

tjagain
Yes absolutely, I guess you could say it's an "anti SNP blog" I'd see it more as a blog with pretty well referenced facts about business and economics in Scotland (so maybe anti-snp by default?)

But the information there is referenced and the fact is that the founders had connections to the SNP, 6 of the 7 directors resigned after 2014 and three of them stood for office with the SNP later.

They were also registered as a pro indy group.

So maybe if you can reject my info as "anti snp" I can reject yours as pro?

In any case your "sell the family silver" economic strategy neglects to cover why no other country has tried that path out of economic trouble to that massive extent. (tho' some have done it a bit)

Also assets are really only worth what someone will pay, and what's the market like for 2nd hand frigates these days?

Eat the pudding, question to you. How long will the Tories live with subsidizing a "15bn deficit" Scotland?

The makers of Absolutely really need to come out of retirement and resurrect McGlashan

The makers of Absolutely really need to come out of retirement and resurrect McGlashan

I've been looking for that sketch for ****ing ages, I just couldn't remember who did it!! Thanks!

It's so often I do variations of that in the pub it's always worth being reminded what I look like 🙂

I think there should be referendum in England about ejecting Scotland - I'm pretty sure many people are getting sick of these pathetic, whinging Scots...

How many times a day do you think Theresa May is going to be hearing this for the next four years?

Eat the pudding - its like saying the CBI is a tory front. You simply do not realise what a small world politically it is in Scotland. Business for Scotland is completely independent of the SNP and is simply one of a load of pro independence pressure groups. Indeed they have been a thorn in the side of the SNP on occasion

this is just a few of the groups who support independence. YOu will find a lot of cross membership with the SNP in some of the groups. are they all SNP fronts?

women for independence, Scottish green party, Scottish socialist party, 1001 Campaign, Business for Scotland, Christians for Independence Farming 4 Yes, Generation Yes, Labour for Independence, National Collective, Radical Independence Campaign, acedemics for yes, scottish secular society

That's not counting the groups who support independence but isn't their only issue. My Mum is active in both the SNP and the Glasgow Women's Socialist Choir 🙂

How long will the Tories live with subsidizing a "15bn deficit" Scotland?

If that was the objective of any government, either London would declare independence or everywhere in the UK outside of the South-East would see monstrous cuts.

Part of being a state is that the wealthier areas financially support the less wealthy areas. It happens in every country in the world, it would happen in an independent Scotland.

That's nice, but how long till the tories start passing down massive cuts?

A bit of hysteria there. Yes

Nothing else needed!! 😉

seosamh77 - Member

That's nice, but how long till the tories start passing down massive cuts?

its already started

teamhurtmore - Member
A bit of hysteria there. Yes
Nothing else needed!!

Going to have to hear this UK vision though...

I gave it a few pages back - followed by a tirade from the Chief Troll, which is worth going back to read for a laugh.

Maximise the opportunities, minimise the risks to deliver the best results. It really is not that hard 😉

Your balance is appreciate among the hysteria and general Nat BS - today has been great! - so bravo! Nice to debate with you as always, even though we disagree here! 😉

So now we have "massive cuts" is that the same as the 'great' 4.5% recession ?!?

Going to have to hear this UK vision though...

Indeed, it's only fair that if Yes is required to have a 20/20 crystal ball then Westminster has to have one as well.

Turner guy

TurnerGuy - Member

Aircraft carriers and subs for example - useless to iScotland so selling our share back to rUK will give iScotland a bucket full of cash.

Why would England be buying these back, they belong to the UK - not Scotland only ?

Yes - 9% of them belongs to scotland so rUK would have to buy scotland out of their share or deal off in some other way. We don't want / need the aircraft carriers so rUK would have to buy us out. 23 billion worth of UK asets on scottish soil, Scotlands share 100 billion plus so thats 75 billion plus of property or money rUK would need to transfer to iScotland - or we take none of the debt

Yes isnt required to have one - they have already [s]rammed the lies down our throats[/s] volunteered the definitive view of the future including full details of the (yet-to-start) Brexshit negotiations.

If you ask nicely, you might get a tip on the lottery numbers for next week.

Maximise the opportunities, minimise the risks to deliver the best results. It really is not that hard

In order to maximise the opportunities we need a small dynamic country. In order to minimise the risks we join the single market. Simple, next!

Or maybe it's a bit more complicated than that.

its great to have the "no debt" BS spouted again and again....basic knowledge of facts required 😉

A lot more

seosamh77.. is that project fear I hear? 🙂

If things are going to go bad and staying in the UK will lead to 15 Bn in cuts from Westminster, then the economic argument against indy goes away like tears in the rain.

That's why it'll keep coming.

If it stops. Maybe it would be time to call a referendum?

It is good that you've realised that 15bn cuts would be a very big bad thing tho'.

tjagain
I don't think realise just how much top level planning goes into organising a 'grass roots' independence campaign 🙂

The 'small pool' argument is fair, but the representativeness of those groups (on all sides) for their particular constituency, should be looked at before they get treated as authoritative. Eg. during the EU ref we had organisations representing large numbers of UK businesses appearing opposite Dyson, and given equal time. Fair? Transparent?

EDIT For reference I have no problem referring to orgs like "the taxpayers alliance" etc. as a tory front, any more than "Business for Scotland" as an SNP front. The deciding factor for influence should be who pays your bills, how may people, businesses or employees do you represent?

Otherwise its just talkinf heads doing "triple-A" reporting.*

*Ask Any A'hole

eat the pudding - yes I agree you need to know where folk are coming from to understand their position. I was simply correcting you tho on business for scotland being a SNP front as it isn't

Lets agree to differ and have a look at the makeup and background of representatives if it expands again over the next few months/years.

For starters I'm guessing Michelle Thomson won't be involved this time.

We havent mentioned the Russian links yet 😉 They will be licking their lips with delight at another referendum to lay with.

Anyone wonder why there was one rogue poll and its timing last time - where's jhj when you need him!!

eat_the_pudding - Member
seosamh77.. is that project fear I hear?

We do learn! 😆

seosamh77
a few pages from now, I'll be boasting about the secret oil fields off Norfolk. 🙂

For starters I'm guessing Michelle Thomson won't be involved this time.

Or perhaps she will be because she isn't SNP 🙂

And now parliament will have to consider debating blocking another referendum:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642

Democracy at work!

Eat the pudding - one thing that will be very interesting is the economic analysis the SNP are going to have to put forward and the answers on currency. they lost on these two points last time. Lets see if they can do better.

Last time I wanted to hear good answers from the SNP in 3 areas, defense, Economy / currency and EU

I was and remain quite happy with both the EU and defence situation. I wasn't hugely happy with the answers given over economy / currency. the SNP will have to do better this time but then again its against the disaster of the UK leaving the EU with as most people seem to think around a 10% loss to the economy over 10 - 15 years.

this time its not "carry on as before" V " uncertainty" its "out of the EU with a damaged economy" or "stay in the EU with a possibly damaged economy"

slightly different choice

eat_the_pudding - Member
seosamh77
a few pages from now, I'll be boasting about the secret oil fields off Norfolk.

Ones in the clyde i'm interested in! 😆

tjagain,
The scale of the economic pain would be different though, (no-ones suggesting that UK will become Greece) and we're insulated to an extent from disastrous changes to the NHS etc. via Holyrood.

For me it's not uncertainty 1 vs uncertainty 2, its uncertainty squared.

Out of the UK AND out of Europe would not be a comfort.

If I was a pragmatic nationalist I'd be in favour of keeping my feet dry on the UK, waiting to see if the boat sinks and stepping off just as it goes under.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/gers-by-economists/

Before the Yoons complain

The sources we’ve quoted above cover Unionist and pro-independent voices, the left and right of the political spectrum, and across the full breadth of academia, media, big business and individual expertise.

grumpysculler - Member
And now parliament will have to consider debating blocking another referendum:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642

Democracy at work!

Yeah, that'll learn them pesky jocks eh - a load of predominantly English right wing tory punters telling Scotland they can't have a democratically decided vote on becoming an independent country, best pro-indy propaganda i've seen yet, well played 😆

Democracy in action indeed

Can I complain? Just stop it with the wings site! 😆 please?

[quote=seosamh77 ]Can I complain? Just stop it with the wings site! please?

Why?

Plenty of unionist or English biased media gets quoted.

There's bias and there's just making stuff up - one poster uses it as the main source of fiction and we get it regurgitated that way anyway. No one needs that guff twice.

What type of Rev is Stu anyway?

teamhurtmore - Member
There's bias and there's just making stuff up

So all the quotes from renowned economists on GERS figures being essentially meaningless on that link are fictitious?